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Bayes' theorem is named after the Rev. Thomas Bayes, born in London in 1702. His father was one of
the six presbyterian prime ministers ordained in England. He received a private education being probably
Moivre his private teacher. Bayes was ordained a Presbyterian minister as pastor at Turnbridge Wells
in the county of Kent, England. In 1749 he tried to withdraw from his ecclesiastical post. He died in the
same village on April 17, 1761. He was a mathematician and theologian. In 1742 he entered the Royal
Society. In life he published Divine Providence and Goverment Is the Happiness of His Creatures in
1731 and in 1736 An Introduction to the Doctrine of Fluxions and a Defense of the Analyst. Two years
after his death, Price presented the Essay Towards Solving to the Problem in the Doctrine of Chance to
the Royal Society, where he addresses the problem of causes through observed effects, enunciating
the theorem that bears his name. This, in turn, turned out to be the basis of the technique called Bayesian statistics whose use allows
us to calculate the validity of a proposition based on the estimation of the previous probability and the most recent relevant evidence.
1) Una multinacional elabora sus piezas en 3 factorías. El correctamente a la vuelta del jefe? b) A su vuelta, el jefe
porcentaje de piezas defectuosas y el total de producción de se encuentra un ordenador averidado. ¿Cuál es la
cada factoría viene en la siguiente tabla: probabilidad de que Juan no le hiciera el mantenimiento?