AÑO TRIM I TRIM II TRIM III

2013 16 21 9
2014 15 20 10
2015 17 24 13
2016 17 25 11
2017 18 26 14

PROMEDIO PROMEDIO
AÑO TRIM Y MOVIL CENTRADO

1 TRIM I 16
2 TRIM II 21
2013
3 TRIM III 9 16.00 15.88
4 TRIM IV 18 15.75 15.63
5 TRIM I 15 15.50 15.63
6 TRIM II 20 15.75 15.75
2014
7 TRIM III 10 15.75 16.00
8 TRIM IV 18 16.25 16.75
9 TRIM I 17 17.25 17.63
10 TRIM II 24 18.00 18.50
2015
11 TRIM III 13 19.00 19.00
12 TRIM IV 22 19.00 19.13
13 TRIM I 17 19.25 19.00
14 TRIM II 25 18.75 18.63
2016
15 TRIM III 11 18.50 18.63
16 TRIM IV 21 18.75 18.88
17 TRIM I 18 19.00 19.38
18 TRIM II 26 19.75 20.25
2017
19 TRIM III 14 20.75
20 TRIM IV 25
2015 -4.0000

Cálculo de media modificada

AÑO TRIM I TRIM II TRIM III
1991
1992 96.00% 62.50%
1993 129.73%
1994 59.06%
1995 92.90% 128.40%
indices desajustados 94% 129% 61%
indices estacionales 95% 130% 61%
15.20961141

f(x) = 0.0026668198x

-25 -20 -15 -10

 95% 130% 61% 114%
TRIM IV AÑO TRIM I TRIM II TRIM III TRIM IV
18 2013 16.83 16.17 14.71 15.81
18 2014 15.78 15.40 16.35 15.81
22 2015 17.88 18.48 21.25 19.32
21 2016 17.88 19.25 17.98 18.44
25 2017 18.94 20.02 22.89 21.95

%VALOR
REAL y y estimada
RESPECTO AL desestaciona x x recodificada diferencia
lineal
PROM lizada
MOVIL

16.8 -9.5 -19 15.0407 1.8 3.2

16.2 -8.5 -17 15.3581 0.8 0.7
56.7% 14.7 -7.5 -15 15.6755 -1.0 0.9
115.2% 15.8 -6.5 -13 15.9929 -0.2 0.0
96.0% 15.8 -5.5 -11 16.3103 -0.5 0.3
127.0% 15.4 -4.5 -9 16.6277 -1.2 1.5
62.5% 16.3 -3.5 -7 16.9451 -0.6 0.4
107.5% 15.8 -2.5 -5 17.2625 -1.5 2.1
96.5% 17.9 -1.5 -3 17.5799 0.3 0.1
129.7% 18.5 -0.5 -1 17.8973 0.6 0.3
68.4% 21.3 0.5 1 18.2147 3.0 9.2
115.0% 19.3 1.5 3 18.5321 0.8 0.6
89.5% 17.9 2.5 5 18.8495 -1.0 0.9
134.2% 19.2 3.5 7 19.1669 0.1 0.0
59.1% 18.0 4.5 9 19.4843 -1.5 2.3
111.3% 18.4 5.5 11 19.8017 -1.4 1.9
92.9% 18.9 6.5 13 20.1191 -1.2 1.4
128.4% 20.0 7.5 15 20.4365 -0.4 0.2
22.9 8.5 17 20.7539 2.1 4.5
22.0 9.5 19 21.0713 0.9 0.8

TRIM IV

115.03% Ch
111.3%

113% 397.440% constante de ajuste 100.64% f(x) = 0.1586796064x + 18.056

114% 400%
 f(x) = 0.1586796064x + 18.056

no lineal

Chart Title
25.0

f(x) = 0.0026668198x^2 + 0.1586796064x

20.0 + 17.7016086289 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
 ç
1ro desestacionalizar
2do con los indices destacionales…estacionalizar serie de tiempo
3ro recodificar la variable tiempo

y estimada Porcentaje Residuo cíclico

diferencia
no lineal de tendencia relativo

15.6614 1.2 1.37 107% 7.47% 15.66

15.7844 0.4 0.15 102% 2.42%
15.929 -1.2 1.48 92% -7.64%
16.0952 -0.3 0.08 98% -1.79%
16.283 -0.5 0.25 97% -3.09%
16.4924 -1.1 1.20 93% -6.64%
16.7234 -0.4 0.14 98% -2.25%
16.976 -1.2 1.37 93% -6.89%
17.2502 0.6 0.40 104% 3.67%
17.546 0.9 0.87 105% 5.30%
17.8634 3.4 11.48 119% 18.97%
18.2024 1.1 1.25 106% 6.14%
18.563 -0.7 0.46 96% -3.66%
18.9452 0.3 0.09 102% 1.59%
19.349 -1.4 1.87 93% -7.06%
19.7744 -1.3 1.78 93% -6.74%
20.2214 -1.3 1.65 94% -6.36%
20.69 -0.7 0.45 97% -3.26%
21.1802 1.7 2.91 108% 8.06%
21.692 0.3 0.07 101% 1.21%

lineal

Chart Title
25.0

20.0
f(x) = 0.1586796064x + 18.0562956628

15.0

10.0

5.0
 20.0
f(x) = 0.1586796064x + 18.0562956628

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0
0 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
erie de tiempo
Para cada serie de tiempo:
Realizar la desestacionalización
Realizar el análisis de tendencia
Realizar el análisis de variación cíclica

Itrim II trim III trim IV trim

2014 87 106 86 125
2015 85 110 83 127
2016 84 105 87 128
2017 88 104 88 124

Itrim II trim III trim IV trim

2013 102 120 90 78
2014 110 126 95 83
2015 111 128 97 86
2016 115 135 103 91
2017 122 144 110 98

Itrim II trim III trim IV trim

2014 5.6 6.8 6.3 5.2
2015 5.7 6.7 6.4 5.4
2016 5.3 6.6 6.1 5.1
2017 5.4 6.9 6.2 5.3
 Itrim II trim III trim IV trim
2014 87 106 86 125
2015 85 110 83 127
2016 84 105 87 128
2017 88 104 88 124

%VALOR
REAL y
PROMEDIO PROMEDIO RESPECTO
AÑO TRIM Y desestacionali
MOVIL CENTRADO AL PROM zada
MOVIL

TRIM I 87 103.3
TRIM II 106 101.6
2014
TRIM III 86 101.00 100.75 85.4% 100.5
TRIM IV 125 100.50 101.00 123.8% 99.3
TRIM I 85 101.50 101.13 84.1% 100.9
TRIM II 110 100.75 101.00 108.9% 105.5
2015
TRIM III 83 101.25 101.13 82.1% 97.0
TRIM IV 127 101.00 100.38 126.5% 100.9
TRIM I 84 99.75 100.25 83.8% 99.7
TRIM II 105 100.75 100.88 104.1% 100.7
2016
TRIM III 87 101.00 101.50 85.7% 101.7
TRIM IV 128 102.00 101.88 125.6% 101.7
TRIM I 88 101.75 101.88 86.4% 104.5
TRIM II 104 102.00 101.50 102.5% 99.7
2017
TRIM III 88 101.00 102.9
TRIM IV 124 98.5
2015.5

Cálculo de media modificada

AÑO TRIM I TRIM II TRIM III TRIM IV
1991 85.360%
1992 84.054%
1993 104.089% 125.644%
1994
indices desaj 84.054% 104.089% 85.360% 125.644% 399%
constante de ajuste
indices estac 84.234% 104.312% 85.542% 125.912% 400%

no lineal

Chart Title
108

106

104
 Chart Title
108

106

104

102
f(x) = 0.3901277536 l n(x) + 100.4507366205
100

98

96

94

92
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
 84% 104% 86% 126%
AÑO TRIM I TRIM II TRIM III TRIM IV
2013 103.28 101.62 100.54 99.28
2014 100.91 105.45 97.03 100.86
2015 99.72 100.66 101.70 101.66
2016 104.47 99.70 102.87 98.48

x y estimada y estimada
x diferencia diferencia
recodificada lineal no lineal

-7.5 -15 101.3815 1.9 3.6 103.3 10667.55

-6.5 -13 101.3493 0.3 0.1 16.0952 85.5 7314.27
-5.5 -11 101.3171 -0.8 0.6 16.283 84.3 7098.45
-4.5 -9 101.2849 -2.0 4.0 16.4924 82.8 6853.01
-3.5 -7 101.2527 -0.3 0.1 16.7234 84.2 7087.30
-2.5 -5 101.2205 4.2 17.9 16.976 88.5 7828.24
-1.5 -3 101.1883 -4.2 17.3 17.2502 79.8 6364.54
-0.5 -1 101.1561 -0.3 0.1 17.546 83.3 6941.84
0.5 1 101.1239 -1.4 2.0 17.8634 81.9 6700.88
1.5 3 101.0917 -0.4 0.2 18.2024 82.5 6799.26
2.5 5 101.0595 0.6 0.4 18.563 83.1 6912.48
3.5 7 101.0273 0.6 0.4 18.9452 82.7 6841.39
4.5 9 100.9951 3.5 12.1 19.349 85.1 7245.76
5.5 11 100.9629 -1.3 1.6 19.7744 79.9 6388.32
6.5 13 100.9307 1.9 3.8 20.2214 82.7 6831.34
7.5 15 100.8985 -2.4 5.8 20.69 77.8 6051.45

lineal Chart Title

108

106

104

102
100.21% f(x) = - 0.0160995211x + 101.1399560534
100

98

96

94

92
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
Porcentaje Residuo
de cíclico
tendencia relativo

#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
631% 531.36%
617% 517.42%
602% 501.95%
603% 503.40%
621% 521.19%
562% 462.48%
575% 474.85%
558% 458.25%
553% 453.00%
548% 447.89%
537% 436.59%
540% 439.93%
504% 404.19%
509% 408.73%
476% 375.98%
 Itrim II trim III trim IV trim
2013 102 120 90 78
2014 110 126 95 83
2015 111 128 97 86
2016 115 135 103 91
2017 122 144 110 98

%VALOR
REAL y
PROMEDIO PROMEDIO RESPECTO
AÑO TRIM Y desestacion
MOVIL CENTRADO AL PROM alizada
MOVIL

TRIM I 102 96.3

TRIM II 120 98.0
2013
TRIM III 90 97.50 98.50 91.4% 98.2
TRIM IV 78 99.50 100.25 77.8% 97.6
TRIM I 110 101.00 101.63 108.2% 103.8
TRIM II 126 102.25 102.88 122.5% 102.9
2014
TRIM III 95 103.50 103.63 91.7% 103.6
TRIM IV 83 103.75 104.00 79.8% 103.8
TRIM I 111 104.25 104.50 106.2% 104.8
TRIM II 128 104.75 105.13 121.8% 104.5
2015
TRIM III 97 105.50 106.00 91.5% 105.8
TRIM IV 86 106.50 107.38 80.1% 107.6
TRIM I 115 108.25 109.00 105.5% 108.5
TRIM II 135 109.75 110.38 122.3% 110.2
2016
TRIM III 103 111.00 111.88 92.1% 112.4
TRIM IV 91 112.75 113.88 79.9% 113.9
TRIM I 122 115.00 115.88 105.3% 115.2
TRIM II 144 116.75 117.63 122.4% 117.6
2017
TRIM III 110 118.50 120.0
TRIM IV 98 122.6

Cálculo de media modificada

AÑO TRIM I TRIM II TRIM III TRIM IV
1991
1992 91.68% 79.81%
1993 106.22% 91.51%
1994 105.50% 122.31% 79.9%
1995 122.42%
indices desaj 106% 122% 92% 80% 399.682% constante de ajuste
indices estac 106% 122% 92% 80% 400%
 106% 122% 92% 80%
AÑO TRIM I TRIM II TRIM III TRIM IV
2013 96.27 97.99 98.18 97.59
2014 103.83 102.89 103.64 103.85
2015 104.77 104.52 105.82 107.60
2016 108.55 110.24 112.36 113.86
2017 115.15 117.59 120.00 122.62

x y estimada y estimada
x diferencia diferencia
recodificada lineal no lineal

-9.5 -19 95.4475 0.8 0.7 96.3 9268.86

-8.5 -17 96.7025 1.3 1.7 15.7844 82.2 6757.43
-7.5 -15 97.9575 0.2 0.1 15.929 82.3 6765.65
-6.5 -13 99.2125 -1.6 2.6 16.0952 81.5 6641.95
-5.5 -11 100.4675 3.4 11.3 16.283 87.5 7663.76
-4.5 -9 101.7225 1.2 1.4 16.4924 86.4 7464.09
-3.5 -7 102.9775 0.7 0.4 16.7234 86.9 7554.00
-2.5 -5 104.2325 -0.4 0.1 16.976 86.9 7546.98
-1.5 -3 105.4875 -0.7 0.5 17.2502 87.5 7659.68
-0.5 -1 106.7425 -2.2 4.9 17.546 87.0 7564.57
0.5 1 107.9975 -2.2 4.7 17.8634 88.0 7736.19
1.5 3 109.2525 -1.6 2.7 18.2024 89.4 7992.45
2.5 5 110.5075 -2.0 3.9 18.563 90.0 8096.81
3.5 7 111.7625 -1.5 2.3 18.9452 91.3 8334.10
4.5 9 113.0175 -0.7 0.4 19.349 93.0 8651.89
5.5 11 114.2725 -0.4 0.2 19.7744 94.1 8851.89
6.5 13 115.5275 -0.4 0.1 20.2214 94.9 9011.89
7.5 15 116.7825 0.8 0.6 20.69 96.9 9388.75
8.5 17 118.0375 2.0 3.9 21.1802 98.8 9765.54
9.5 19 119.2925 3.3 11.1 21.692 100.9 10185.91

lineal

Chart Title
140

120
f(x) = 0.6275063402x + 107.3656122678
100
constante de ajuste 100.08%
80

60

40

20

00
 80

60

40

20

00
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Porcentaje Residuo
de cíclico
tendencia relativo

#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
621% 520.79%
616% 516.38%
606% 506.35%
638% 537.63%
624% 523.85%
620% 519.71%
612% 511.74%
607% 507.35%
596% 495.69%
592% 492.38%
591% 491.15%
585% 484.74%
582% 481.87%
581% 480.73%
576% 475.79%
569% 469.46%
568% 468.32%
567% 466.57%
565% 465.26%
0 15 20 25
 Itrim II trim III trim IV trim
2014 5.6 6.8 6.3 5.2
2015 5.7 6.7 6.4 5.4
2016 5.3 6.6 6.1 5.1
2017 5.4 6.9 6.2 5.3

%VALOR
REAL y
PROMEDIO PROMEDIO RESPECTO
AÑO TRIM Y desestacion
MOVIL CENTRADO AL PROM alizada
MOVIL

TRIM I 5.6 6.1

TRIM II 6.8 6.0
2014
TRIM III 6.3 5.98 5.99 105.2% 5.9
TRIM IV 5.2 6.00 5.99 86.8% 5.9
TRIM I 5.7 5.98 5.99 95.2% 6.2
TRIM II 6.7 6.00 6.03 111.2% 5.9
2015
TRIM III 6.4 6.05 6.00 106.7% 6.0
TRIM IV 5.4 5.95 5.94 90.9% 6.2
TRIM I 5.3 5.93 5.89 90.0% 6.47
TRIM II 6.6 5.85 5.81 113.5% 5.21
2016
TRIM III 6.1 5.78 5.79 105.4% 5.59
TRIM IV 5.1 5.80 5.84 87.4% 7.04
TRIM I 5.4 5.88 5.89 91.7% 5.9
TRIM II 6.9 5.90 5.93 116.5% 6.0
2017
TRIM III 6.2 5.95 5.9
TRIM IV 5.3 6.0

Cálculo de media modificada

AÑO TRIM I TRIM II TRIM III TRIM IV
1991
1992
1993 113.548% 105.400% 87.366%
1994 91.720%
indices desaj 91.720% 113.548% 105.400% 87.366% 398%
constante de ajuste
indices estac 92.173% 114.109% 105.920% 87.798% 400%
 92.173% 114.109% 105.920% 87.798%
AÑO TRIM I TRIM II TRIM III TRIM IV
2013 6.08 5.96 5.95 5.92
2014 6.18 5.87 6.04 6.15
2015 5.75 5.78 5.76 5.81
2016 5.86 6.05 5.85 6.04

x y estimada y estimada
x diferencia diferencia
recodificada lineal no lineal

-7.5 -15 11.291 -5.2 27.2 15.929 -9.9 97.09

-6.5 -13 11.2002 -5.2 27.5 16.0952 -10.1 102.74
-5.5 -11 11.1094 -5.2 26.6 16.283 -10.3 106.81
-4.5 -9 11.0186 -5.1 26.0 16.4924 -10.6 111.72
-3.5 -7 10.9278 -4.7 22.5 16.7234 -10.5 111.08
-2.5 -5 10.837 -5.0 24.7 16.976 -11.1 123.31
-1.5 -3 10.7462 -4.7 22.1 17.2502 -11.2 125.62
-0.5 -1 10.6554 -4.5 20.3 17.546 -11.4 129.86
0.5 1 10.5646 -4.1 16.8 17.8634 -11.4 129.92
1.5 3 10.4738 -5.3 27.7 18.2024 -13.0 168.74
2.5 5 10.383 -4.8 23.0 18.563 -13.0 168.26
3.5 7 10.2922 -3.2 10.6 18.9452 -11.9 141.65
4.5 9 10.2014 -4.3 18.9 19.349 -13.5 181.99
5.5 11 10.1106 -4.1 16.5 19.7744 -13.7 188.45
6.5 13 10.0198 -4.2 17.4 20.2214 -14.4 206.44
7.5 15 9.929 -3.9 15.2 20.69 -14.7 214.72

lineal

Chart Title
08

07
100.49%
06
f(x) = - 0.0161079104x + 6.1872818299
05

04

03

02

01

00
9.8 10 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8 11 11.2 11.4
02

01

00
9.8 10 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8 11 11.2 11.4
 Porcentaje Residuo
de cíclico
tendencia relativo

38% -61.86%
37% -62.98%
37% -63.47%
36% -64.09%
37% -63.02%
35% -65.41%
35% -64.97%
35% -64.95%
36% -63.81%
29% -71.36%
30% -69.88%
37% -62.82%
30% -69.72%
31% -69.42%
29% -71.05%
29% -70.82%

.2 11.4
.2 11.4