8.

ANÁLISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD

CPPC 11.54%
VAN 351,962.88
TIRE 33.32%

ESCENARIOS

ESCENARIOS
Descripción PESIMISTA ESPERADO OPTIMISTA
Variación % promedio del Precio -40.00% 0.00% 20.00%
Variacion % Cantidad -10.00% 0.00% 5.00%
Variacion % promedio del Costo de Ventas 10.00% 0.00% -10.00%

ANALISIS PUNTOS CRITICOS

ESCENARIOS
Descripción Base Punto Critico VAN
Variación % promedio del Precio 0.00% -4.94% 0
Variacion % Cantidad 0.00% -19.08% 0
Variacion % promedio del Costo de Ventas 0.00% 46.57% 0

ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD

I. Unidimensional

Variación VAN Variación VAN

351,963 351,963
-40.00% -1,258,464 -40.00% -386,044
Variación % promedio del Precio

-35.00% -1,171,550 -35.00% -293,759

-30.00% -1,061,953 -30.00% -201,486

Variacion % Cantidad
-25.00% -925,359 -25.00% -109,224
-20.00% -756,933 -20.00% -16,972
-15.00% -551,280 -15.00% 75,272
-10.00% -302,419 -10.00% 167,509
-5.00% -3,754 -5.00% 259,739
0.00% 351,963 0.00% 351,963
5.00% 772,655 5.00% 444,181
10.00% 1,266,958 10.00% 536,395
15.00% 1,844,246 15.00% 628,604
20.00% 2,514,665 20.00% 720,809
25.00% 3,289,162 25.00% 813,010
30.00% 4,179,518 30.00% 905,208
35.00% 5,198,375 35.00% 997,402
40.00% 6,359,271 40.00% 1,089,593

Variación VAN
351,963
-40.00% 654,284
Variacion % promedio del Costo de

-35.00% 616,494
-30.00% 578,704
-25.00% 540,914
-20.00% 503,124
-15.00% 465,333
-10.00% 427,543
Ventas

-5.00% 389,753
0.00% 351,963
5.00% 314,173
10.00% 276,382
15.00% 238,592
20.00% 200,802
25.00% 163,012
30.00% 125,222
35.00% 87,432
40.00% 49,641

VAN
Variación % Variacion %
Variacion %
Rango de Variación promedio del promedio del Costo
Cantidad
Precio de Ventas
-40.00% -1,258,464 -386,044 654,284
-35.00% -1,171,550 -293,759 616,494
-30.00% -1,061,953 -201,486 578,704
-25.00% -925,359 -109,224 540,914
-20.00% -756,933 -16,972 503,124
-15.00% -551,280 75,272 465,333
-10.00% -302,419 167,509 427,543
-5.00% -3,754 259,739 389,753
0.00% 351,963 351,963 351,963
5.00% 772,655 444,181 314,173
10.00% 1,266,958 536,395 276,382
15.00% 1,844,246 628,604 238,592
20.00% 2,514,665 720,809 200,802
25.00% 3,289,162 813,010 163,012
30.00% 4,179,518 905,208 125,222
35.00% 5,198,375 997,402 87,432
40.00% 6,359,271 1,089,593 49,641

Análisis de Sensibilidad Unidimensional VAN

7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
VAN

2,000,000
1,000,000
0
-50.00% -40.00% -30.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00%
-1,000,000 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00%
-2,000,000
Variaciones
Variación % promedio del Precio Variacion % Cantidad

Análisis de Sensibilidad Unidimensional VAN

7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
VAN

3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
-50.00% -40.00% -30.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00%
-1,000,000
-2,000,000

Variaciones
Variación % promedio del Precio Variacion % promedio del Costo de Ventas

II. Bidimensional

VAN
Variacion % Cantidad
351,963 -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
-40% (1,356,379) (1,303,721) (1,237,453) (1,154,987) (1,053,421) (929,519) (779,693) (599,984) (386,044) (133,119) 163,973 510,855 913,617 1,378,825 1,913,548 2,525,373 3,222,420
-35% (1,344,119) (1,287,178) (1,215,492) (1,126,258) (1,016,333) (882,210) (720,003) (525,423) (293,759) (19,861) 301,884 677,569 1,113,789 1,617,660 2,196,839 2,859,544 3,614,574
-30% (1,331,867) (1,270,642) (1,193,539) (1,097,538) (979,254) (834,912) (660,324) (450,873) (201,486) 93,384 439,781 844,267 1,313,946 1,856,479 2,480,114 3,193,699 4,006,711
Variación % promedio del Precio

-25% (1,319,621) (1,254,114) (1,171,593) (1,068,826) (942,184) (787,622) (600,655) (376,334) (109,224) 206,617 577,666 1,010,954 1,514,090 2,095,285 2,763,374 3,527,839 4,398,833
-20% (1,307,380) (1,237,591) (1,149,655) (1,040,122) (905,122) (740,341) (540,994) (301,803) (16,972) 319,840 715,541 1,177,630 1,714,223 2,334,079 3,046,622 3,861,967 4,790,941
-15% (1,295,145) (1,221,074) (1,127,722) (1,011,423) (868,067) (693,067) (481,341) (227,281) 75,272 433,055 853,407 1,344,296 1,914,346 2,572,863 3,329,860 4,196,083 5,183,038
-10% (1,282,914) (1,204,562) (1,105,794) (982,731) (831,017) (645,799) (421,695) (152,766) 167,509 546,262 991,264 1,510,953 2,114,460 2,811,637 3,613,088 4,530,189 5,575,125
-5% (1,270,687) (1,188,054) (1,083,871) (954,043) (793,972) (598,537) (362,054) (78,257) 259,739 659,462 1,129,114 1,677,603 2,314,566 3,050,404 3,896,307 4,864,286 5,967,202
0% (1,258,464) (1,171,550) (1,061,953) (925,359) (756,933) (551,280) (302,419) (3,754) 351,963 772,655 1,266,958 1,844,246 2,514,665 3,289,162 4,179,518 5,198,375 6,359,271
5% (1,246,243) (1,155,050) (1,040,038) (896,680) (719,898) (504,027) (242,789) 70,745 444,181 885,843 1,404,795 2,010,882 2,714,757 3,527,914 4,462,722 5,532,457 6,751,332
10% (1,234,026) (1,138,553) (1,018,126) (868,005) (682,866) (456,779) (183,163) 145,238 536,395 999,026 1,542,628 2,177,513 2,914,843 3,766,659 4,745,920 5,866,532 7,143,386
15% (1,221,812) (1,122,058) (996,218) (839,333) (645,839) (409,534) (123,541) 219,727 628,604 1,112,203 1,680,455 2,344,139 3,114,924 4,005,399 5,029,112 6,200,601 7,535,434
20% (1,209,600) (1,105,567) (974,313) (810,664) (608,815) (362,293) (63,924) 294,212 720,809 1,225,377 1,818,277 2,510,760 3,315,000 4,244,134 5,312,298 6,534,664 7,927,476
25% (1,197,390) (1,089,078) (952,410) (781,998) (571,793) (315,056) (4,309) 368,694 813,010 1,338,546 1,956,096 2,677,377 3,515,071 4,482,864 5,595,480 6,868,722 8,319,512
30% (1,185,183) (1,072,591) (930,510) (753,334) (534,775) (267,821) 55,302 443,172 905,208 1,451,712 2,093,910 2,843,989 3,715,138 4,721,589 5,878,656 7,202,775 8,711,544
35% (1,172,977) (1,056,106) (908,612) (724,673) (497,759) (220,589) 114,910 517,647 997,402 1,564,874 2,231,721 3,010,598 3,915,201 4,960,311 6,161,829 7,536,824 9,103,571
40%

VAN
Variacion % promedio del Costo de Ventas
351,963 -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
-40% (956,142) (869,229) (759,631) (623,038) (454,611) (248,958) (97) 298,568 654,284 1,074,977 1,569,279 2,146,567 2,816,986 3,591,484 4,481,839 5,500,697 6,661,592
-35% (993,932) (907,019) (797,421) (660,828) (492,402) (286,748) (37,888) 260,778 616,494 1,037,187 1,531,489 2,108,777 2,779,196 3,553,693 4,444,049 5,462,906 6,623,802
-30% (1,031,722) (944,809) (835,212) (698,618) (530,192) (324,538) (75,678) 222,988 578,704 999,396 1,493,699 2,070,987 2,741,406 3,515,903 4,406,259 5,425,116 6,586,012
Variación % promedio del Precio

-25% (1,069,513) (982,599) (873,002) (736,409) (567,982) (362,329) (113,468) 185,197 540,914 961,606 1,455,909 2,033,197 2,703,616 3,478,113 4,368,469 5,387,326 6,548,222
-20% (1,107,303) (1,020,389) (910,792) (774,199) (605,772) (400,119) (151,258) 147,407 503,124 923,816 1,418,119 1,995,407 2,665,825 3,440,323 4,330,679 5,349,536 6,510,431
-15% (1,145,093) (1,058,180) (948,582) (811,989) (643,562) (437,909) (189,048) 109,617 465,333 886,026 1,380,328 1,957,616 2,628,035 3,402,533 4,292,888 5,311,746 6,472,641
-10% (1,182,883) (1,095,970) (986,372) (849,779) (681,353) (475,699) (226,839) 71,827 427,543 848,236 1,342,538 1,919,826 2,590,245 3,364,742 4,255,098 5,273,956 6,434,851
-5% (1,220,673) (1,133,760) (1,024,163) (887,569) (719,143) (513,489) (264,629) 34,037 389,753 810,445 1,304,748 1,882,036 2,552,455 3,326,952 4,217,308 5,236,165 6,397,061
0% (1,258,464) (1,171,550) (1,061,953) (925,359) (756,933) (551,280) (302,419) (3,754) 351,963 772,655 1,266,958 1,844,246 2,514,665 3,289,162 4,179,518 5,198,375 6,359,271
5% (1,296,254) (1,209,340) (1,099,743) (963,150) (794,723) (589,070) (340,209) (41,544) 314,173 734,865 1,229,168 1,806,456 2,476,874 3,251,372 4,141,728 5,160,585 6,321,480
10% (1,334,044) (1,247,130) (1,137,533) (1,000,940) (832,513) (626,860) (377,999) (79,334) 276,382 697,075 1,191,377 1,768,665 2,439,084 3,213,582 4,103,938 5,122,795 6,283,690
15% (1,371,834) (1,284,921) (1,175,323) (1,038,730) (870,303) (664,650) (415,790) (117,124) 238,592 659,285 1,153,587 1,730,875 2,401,294 3,175,791 4,066,147 5,085,005 6,245,900
20% (1,409,624) (1,322,711) (1,213,114) (1,076,520) (908,094) (702,440) (453,580) (154,914) 200,802 621,494 1,115,797 1,693,085 2,363,504 3,138,001 4,028,357 5,047,214 6,208,110
25% (1,447,415) (1,360,501) (1,250,904) (1,114,310) (945,884) (740,230) (491,370) (192,705) 163,012 583,704 1,078,007 1,655,295 2,325,714 3,100,211 3,990,567 5,009,424 6,170,320
30% (1,485,205) (1,398,291) (1,288,694) (1,152,101) (983,674) (778,021) (529,160) (230,495) 125,222 545,914 1,040,217 1,617,505 2,287,923 3,062,421 3,952,777 4,971,634 6,132,529
35% (1,522,995) (1,436,081) (1,326,484) (1,189,891) (1,021,464) (815,811) (566,950) (268,285) 87,432 508,124 1,002,426 1,579,714 2,250,133 3,024,631 3,914,987 4,933,844 6,094,739
40% (1,560,785) (1,473,872) (1,364,274) (1,227,681) (1,059,254) (853,601) (604,741) (306,075) 49,641 470,334 964,636 1,541,924 2,212,343 2,986,841 3,877,196 4,896,054 6,056,949