Precipitación Promedio - Microcuenca Toromacho

Año ene feb mar abr may jun jul

1965 119.440 148.115 179.365 119.603 40.263 12.539 21.306
1966 105.863 94.141 131.650 88.804 77.661 7.740 9.432
1967 163.975 188.093 164.453 47.564 71.098 24.987 35.251
1968 78.752 124.570 145.175 47.794 47.504 6.898 10.283
1969 58.476 128.591 161.180 146.349 28.522 55.717 8.917
1970 112.988 98.287 5.512 108.757 74.465 35.867 17.027
1971 78.004 131.739 260.985 17.843 27.063 28.832 18.717
1972 75.466 130.332 186.687 141.173 41.987 22.539 8.857
1973 134.715 11.635 157.501 157.647 58.396 61.960 26.661
1974 92.676 164.883 157.501 81.770 37.185 47.693 31.314
1975 110.803 198.694 207.730 104.543 100.021 31.398 16.191
1976 151.861 103.146 124.929 44.163 58.778 38.105 6.012
1977 135.511 158.778 152.722 55.256 48.671 14.913 10.607
1978 31.849 98.732 121.788 68.992 99.546 10.934 10.607
1979 11.692 134.676 222.978 44.789 44.538 7.026 19.161
1980 59.233 102.708 148.160 47.193 34.028 30.834 12.778
1981 105.420 231.489 170.573 68.886 51.544 26.914 15.608
1982 97.667 148.554 141.046 124.458 88.873 42.245 15.127
1983 182.461 114.800 200.965 147.078 62.062 26.703 17.823
1984 38.572 277.400 157.578 62.026 112.821 48.107 31.469
1985 36.836 98.468 121.560 62.025 49.769 7.374 14.331
1986 121.106 111.110 155.267 150.922 45.519 4.956 7.680
1987 138.569 147.968 125.775 77.763 32.935 13.509 33.868
1988 148.115 170.008 124.746 122.317 35.493 12.078 5.647
1989 127.954 188.838 167.287 116.719 38.478 32.879 9.903
1990 123.325 105.986 112.687 53.563 60.019 48.925 7.676
1991 65.270 131.949 143.725 85.774 34.516 6.670 11.439
1992 67.478 89.765 139.478 73.113 40.076 50.450 13.371
1993 87.029 138.694 196.768 120.078 59.001 8.544 7.042
1994 131.217 137.091 162.755 163.565 53.219 14.745 6.875
1995 29.798 109.478 130.641 69.156 6.017 17.330 8.292
1996 79.352 146.286 160.095 85.509 47.296 18.248 2.275
1997 80.796 100.711 70.574 77.073 22.839 12.928 3.504
1998 56.799 160.570 152.107 109.666 80.040 4.978 0.305
1999 152.126 297.475 112.008 58.711 92.591 94.966 14.233
2000 77.983 210.784 192.721 91.481 71.221 38.641 10.786
2001 224.678 122.786 252.396 83.006 60.198 5.745 10.329
2002 53.780 110.213 187.250 165.217 42.854 11.713 22.979
2003 101.331 11.721 110.731 50.106 17.994 19.929 2.860
2004 86.555 65.055 104.906 71.326 31.645 14.234 27.260
2005 99.306 136.242 280.094 125.563 23.242 12.301 9.993
2006 105.109 220.791 270.236 101.002 17.070 50.614 14.560
2007 132.115 62.935 217.498 135.684 56.110 5.262 42.627
2008 146.017 244.502 165.796 100.611 70.616 24.296 10.922
2009 263.422 16.697 221.675 178.688 120.583 63.298 22.822
2010 78.746 137.375 208.268 98.080 98.172 25.846 18.722
2011 104.522 133.578 205.051 193.416 33.215 16.785 10.205
2012 318.541 265.483 128.724 112.119 46.548 8.280 0.115
 2013 101.888 127.922 199.667 79.921 142.573 9.821 123.589
2014 106.036 154.221 227.244 63.795 85.083 10.240 4.239
2015 261.833 117.923 171.344 105.587 118.607 9.100 11.059
2016 183.524 31.339 54.423 82.332 27.575 18.662 3.518
2017 200.906 167.374 294.499 142.092 77.764 18.663 19.797
PROMEDIO 113.915 136.994 165.405 96.805 57.432 24.414 16.150
uenca Toromacho
ago sep oct nov dic
10.537 76.979 154.318 132.810 12.291 1027.566
13.544 24.149 163.403 126.551 92.498 935.436
14.609 18.356 26.542 86.282 114.003 955.213
20.480 91.161 119.664 105.776 126.437 924.494
11.162 31.222 146.748 169.739 200.584 1147.207
10.634 35.267 171.466 108.602 118.663 897.535
23.284 42.589 187.580 124.557 143.431 1084.624
20.731 45.938 69.901 131.200 124.085 998.896
26.537 119.226 108.027 118.136 145.451 1125.892
26.463 63.760 123.678 105.967 129.871 1062.761
25.359 71.409 131.249 11.049 118.338 1126.784
11.681 17.274 61.260 110.341 101.086 828.636
9.651 26.803 100.458 120.241 136.203 969.814
10.862 46.551 64.951 123.200 128.592 816.604
27.098 63.734 55.056 89.905 114.498 835.151
14.587 7.494 227.734 193.740 155.865 1034.354
37.881 39.753 200.852 112.889 166.544 1228.353
11.397 87.219 222.042 135.781 167.946 1282.355
17.290 41.559 148.698 101.800 183.219 1244.458
23.753 63.832 144.172 146.234 148.738 1254.702
19.909 63.696 85.961 85.265 120.565 765.759
24.364 19.051 81.804 122.264 127.522 971.565
13.708 62.677 70.452 143.110 137.496 997.830
9.740 54.163 121.727 124.275 127.333 1055.642
11.451 81.518 177.419 104.586 83.004 1140.036
14.094 30.004 141.133 144.426 129.841 971.679
9.815 21.612 58.303 106.070 141.354 816.497
21.117 70.007 118.532 92.284 105.676 881.347
15.593 66.286 164.867 122.606 133.723 1120.231
10.523 25.177 58.409 134.988 168.256 1066.820
2.322 20.470 21.848 135.937 258.730 810.019
13.063 27.245 124.293 45.429 64.620 813.711
5.254 27.450 75.628 119.539 117.294 713.590
1.909 26.344 164.765 134.907 51.900 944.290
6.660 110.300 49.120 117.000 206.869 1312.059
27.915 115.535 13.002 71.366 141.652 1063.087
2.583 63.066 114.846 162.838 177.556 1280.027
2.454 38.886 176.533 134.371 193.761 1140.011
13.427 27.473 35.911 44.624 114.154 550.261
11.164 45.073 120.954 175.214 178.923 932.309
13.880 35.846 257.200 68.838 203.292 1265.797
17.167 34.204 134.050 151.399 244.212 1360.414
36.832 33.450 202.731 179.405 96.356 1201.005
37.316 86.567 149.840 123.480 101.561 1261.524
29.666 46.398 165.333 185.285 16.401 1330.268
3.606 30.831 99.968 223.298 182.543 1205.455
4.522 64.476 70.512 131.769 184.661 1152.712
8.978 6.590 184.037 266.595 90.001 1436.011
49.542 10.122 141.746 64.147 157.098 1208.036
9.249 39.888 63.182 120.950 175.631 1059.758
17.041 37.204 49.977 127.757 145.185 1172.617
13.955 56.588 85.874 48.357 140.554 746.701
43.120 50.113 128.176 55.948 127.799 1326.251
16.783 47.973 119.546 121.191 137.243 1053.852
 Parametros de la Microcuenta Parametro
Toromacho Coeficiente
Area (Km2) 46.77 Area de Cuenca
Perímetro (Km) 44.05 Almacenamiento Acuiferos
Longitud del Cauce (Km) 18.83 Pendiente del Cauce Principal
Indice de Compacidad 1.804 Area de Lagunas
Factor de forma 0.132 Almacenamiento Lagunas y Pantanos
Rectangulo Equivalente Area de Nevados
Lado mayor 19.644 Almacenamiento de Nevados
Lado menor 2.381 T° promedio de la Microcuenca
Simbol Valor Unidad
Ca 0.2 %
Ar 46.77 km2
LA 260.625 mm/año
I 0.02626 m/m
AL 0.304 km2
LL 500 mm/año
AN 0 km2
LN 0 mm/año
T° 11.57 °C
 GENERACIÓN DE CAUDALES MEDIOS MENSUALES DE LA CUENCA GRANDE (MASHCÓN)

CAUDALES MENSUALES PARA EL AÑO PROMEDIO

Tabla . Caudales generados para el año promedio de la cuenca Grande

Mes PP (mm) PE (mm) G (mm) A (mm) Qm (mm) Qm(m3/s)
Enero 113.915 52.124 12.46 39.66 0.70
Febrero 136.994 62.684 15.58 47.11 0.84
Marzo 165.405 75.684 21.81 53.88 0.88
Abril 96.805 44.295 - 44.29 0.72
Mayo 57.432 26.279 26.60 - 52.88 0.49
Junio 24.414 11.171 16.31 - 27.48 0.32
Julio 16.150 7.390 9.84 - 17.23 0.26
Agosto 16.783 7.679 5.93 - 13.61 0.27
Setiembre 47.973 21.951 3.64 - 25.59 0.38
Octubre 119.546 54.700 15.58 39.12 0.57
Noviembre 121.191 55.453 - 3.12 58.57 0.71
Diciembre 137.243 62.798 - 62.80 0.78

MODELO DETERMINÍSTICO ESTOCÁSTICO DE LUTZ SCHOLZ

Este modelo hidrológico es combinado porque cuenta con una estructura
determinística para el cálculo de caudales mensuales para el año promedio mediante
un balance hídrico, para ello primero encontraremos las variables de su ecuación:

Para hallar la precipitación efectiva(PE) es necesario encontrar el coeficiente C, pero para

esto lo primero que se halla es L, ya que la T° si la tenemos

T°= 11.57

* Indicado en cuadro de parámetros, hallamos el coeficiente de T°, con la ecuación:

L = 300 + 25 (T) + 0.05 (T)3 T = Temperatura media anual (°C)

L= 666.690845

* Hallado el coeficiente de T°, hallaremos el déficit mediante la siguiente ecuación:

L = Coeficiente de Temperatura

D= 571.642644

* Obtenido D, la reemplazaremos en la siguiente ecuación para hallar el coeficiente de escorrentia

 C= (P-D)/P C = Coeficiente de escurrimiento
P = Precipitación total anual, mm/año
C= 0.45756836 D = Déficit de escurrimiento, mm/año

* Una vez obtenido C, hallaremos la Prec.Efectiva para cada ,es, con la siguiente ecuación y expresada en el cuadro in

PE= C*PP Pef: Precipitación efectiva, mm

C: Coeficiente de escurriemiento
PE= 52.1238223 PP: Precipitación promedio, mm

Para calcular el gasto de retención (G) de la cuenca es necesario hallar las siguientes
variables:

* Hallar la retención de la cuenca R:

Todo está indicado en el cuadro de parámetros,

pero LA se calculará nuevamente:

LA= -750 I+315

LA= 295.305 SEGÚN FORMULA

Entonces:
R= 62.3109465 mm/a Se retiene en área de lagunas, nevados y no solo en
Abastecimiento es lo que ingresa
Gatos lo que sale

α = -0.00252*(Ln AR)+X α = Coeficiente de agotamiento

AR= Área de la cuenca
Tipo de agotamiento Retención (mm/año) X X= Variable de acuerdo al tipo de variable
Rápido Entre 50 y 80 0.03
Curva de agotamiento se calcula en me
Muy rápido De 50 a 80 0.034 y en el histograma se encuentra en los
Mediano 80 0.026 bajos
Reducido > 100 0.023

α = 0.01630999 1/días

* Luego es necesario encontrar la relación de caudales del flujo base (bo), con la siguiente ecuación:

Donde:
 t
bo  e e= 2.7183
  t
bo  e
α = Coeficiente de agotamiento
t= días de cada mes

boi= bo*e^at boi= Caudal del flujo base del mes

siguiente, que se multiplicará x el
caudal del flujo base del mes anterior
bm = ∑bi
bm= Sumatoria de todos los caudales de
flujo base.

Meses t bo bo/bm R G (mm/m)

Enero 0
Febrero 0
Marzo 0
Abril 0
Mayo 31 0.60 0.43 62.31 26.60
Junio 30 0.37 0.26 62.31 16.31
Julio 31 0.22 0.16 62.31 9.84
Agosto 31 0.13 0.10 62.31 5.93
Septiembre 30 0.08 0.06 62.31 3.64
Octubre 0
Noviembre 0
Diciembre 0
bm= 1.41286861

* Halladas todas las variables finalmente podremos encotrar los gastos para los meses requeridos con la
siguiente ecuación:

G= R (bo/bm)

R = Retenciòn de la cuenca
bo = Relaciòn entre la descarga del mes actual y del mes anterior
bm = ∑ boi = Suma de factores mensuales durante la estación de estiaje

Para poder obtener todas las variables para el balance hídrico de la cuenca es necesario
hallar todas sus variables, por lo que con la siguiente ecuación encontraremos el
abastecimiento (A) para los meses indicados :

Ai = abastecimiento mensual déficit de la precipitación efectiva, mm/mes

ai = coeficiente de abastecimiento (%)
R = retención de la cuenca, mm/año
 Meses ai R A (mm/m)
Enero 20 62.31 12.46
Febrero 25 62.31 15.58
Marzo 35 62.31 21.81
Abril
Mayo
Junio
Julio
Agosto
Septiembre
Octubre 25 62.31 15.58
Noviembre -5 62.31 - 3.12
Diciembre

Finalmente obtenidas ya todas las variables encontraremos los caudales mensuales

generados para el año promedio, mediante la ecuación del balance hídrico, que se
expresa de la siguiente manera:

Ecuación del balance hídrico

CMi= Pe+Gi-Ai

Mes PE (mm) Gi Ai Cmi

Enero 52.12 12.46 39.66
Febrero 62.68 15.58 47.11
Marzo 75.68 21.81 53.88
Abril 44.29 - 44.29
Mayo 26.28 26.60 - 52.88
Junio 11.17 16.31 - 27.48
Julio 7.39 9.84 - 17.23
Agosto 7.68 5.93 - 13.61
Setiembre 21.95 3.64 - 25.59
Octubre 54.70 - 15.58 39.12
 Noviembre 55.45 - - 3.12 58.57
Diciembre 62.80 - - 62.80

CAUDALES MENSUALES PARA PERÍODOS EXTENDIDOS

GENERACIÓN DE CAUDALES
Con la finalidad de aumentar el rango de valores generados y obtener una óptima aproximación a la
realidad, se utiliza además una variable aleatoria.

La ecuación integral para la generación de caudales mensuales es:

donde:

Qt = Caudal del mes t

Q t-1 = Caudal del mes anterior
PE t = Precipitación efectiva del mes
B1 = Factor constante o caudal básico.
B2, B3 = Paràmetros del modelo para el año promedio
z= Variable aleatoria (0,1): nùmeros aleatorios normal estàndar
S= Desviaciòn estándar de los residuos
r = Coeficiente de regresiòn múltiple

Ya obtenido los Qt en los pasos anteriores, hallaremos los siguientes valores:

Tabla Series y coeficientes estadísticos para la regresión múltiple

Mes Qt Qt-1 P Et (Qt)( Qt-1) (Qt-1) (P Et) (Qt)(P Et) (Qt-1)(Qt-1)
Enero 39.66 62.80 52.12 2490.67 3273.2688 2067.32 3943.58159
Febrero 47.11 39.66 62.68 1868.32 2486.16 2952.84 1573.05
Marzo 53.88 47.11 75.68 2537.88 3565.22 4077.51 2219.03
Abril 44.29 53.88 44.29 2386.40 2386.40 1962.04 2902.55
Mayo 52.88 44.29 26.28 2342.27 1164.03 1389.61 1962.04
Junio 27.48 52.88 11.17 1453.02 590.72 306.97 2796.18
Julio 17.23 27.48 7.39 473.32 203.06 127.29 755.06
Agosto 13.61 17.23 7.68 234.46 132.28 104.52 296.71
Setiembre 25.59 13.61 21.95 348.28 298.78 561.68 185.27
Octubre 39.12 25.59 54.70 1001.06 1399.66 2140.03 654.73
Noviembre 58.57 39.12 55.45 2291.37 2169.48 3247.82 1530.58
Diciembre 62.80 58.57 62.80 3678.00 3678.00 3943.58 3430.30
Σ = 482.209316 482.209316 482.209316 21105.05 21347.06 22881.21 22249.07
ΣQt ΣQt-1 ΣPEt Σ(Qt)( Qt-1) Σ(Qt-1)( PEt) Σ(Qt)( PEt) Σ(Qt-1)( Qt-1)

Ecuaciones para estimar B1, B2 y B3, ya habiendo encontrado las variables para las ecuaciones:
∑Qt = 12 B1 + B2 ∑ Q t-1 + B3 ∑ PE t

∑ (Q t-1 Q t ) = B1 ∑ Q t-1 + B2 ∑ (Q t-1 ) 2 + B3 ∑ (Q t-1 PE t )

∑ ( PE t Q t ) = B1 ∑ PE t + B2 ∑ ( Q t-1 PE t ) + B3 ∑ (PE t ) 2

482.20932 = 12 482.209316 482.209316

21105.05 = 482.209316 22249.07 21347.06
482.20932 = 482.209316 21347.06 25757.9415

482.209316 = 0.67726239 -0.0122709 -0.0025093

21105.0522 = -0.0122709 0.00044174 -0.0001364
22881.21 = -0.0025093 -0.0001364 0.00019882

10.1884023 = B1
0.28541324 = B2
0.4610437 = B3

�  ̂_𝑡       y del error ℮�  ̂=_𝑡      

* Determinados los parámetros B1,B2 Y B3, calculamos el caudal estimado Qt- , con la siguien

�  ̂_𝑡    = 13.094 + 0.179 �_(𝑡−1)+0.513 

〖��〗 _𝑡

Tabla 12. Cálculo de �  ̂_𝑡       mensual

Mes Qt-1 P Et   �  ̂_𝑡      
Enero 62.80 52.12 52.14
Febrero 39.66 62.68 50.41
Marzo 47.11 75.68 58.53 Determinístico es toda la ecuación
Abril 53.88 44.29 45.99
Mayo 44.29 26.28 34.95 Correlación múltiple
Junio 52.88 11.17 30.43
Julio 27.48 7.39 21.44
Agosto 17.23 7.68 18.65
Setiembre 13.61 21.95 24.19
Octubre 25.59 54.70 42.71
Noviembre 39.12 55.45 46.92
Diciembre 58.57 62.80 55.86

�=�_𝑡  − (�_𝑡  )  ̂   
  
 �=�_𝑡  − (�_𝑡  )  ̂   
  
Mes Qt �  ̂_𝑡     e 〖 �〗 ^2     �_𝑡^2     
Enero 39.66 52.14 -12.481493 155.79 2,718.91
Febrero 47.11 50.41 -3.3020035 10.90 2,541.02
Marzo 53.88 58.53 -4.6516043 21.64 3,425.40
Abril 44.29 45.99 -1.6921056 2.86 2,114.81
Mayo 52.88 34.95 17.9322965 321.57 1,221.26
Junio 27.48 30.43 -2.9528546 8.72 926.06
Julio 17.23 21.44 -4.2128594 17.75 459.59
Agosto 13.61 18.65 -5.0339084 25.34 347.64
Setiembre 25.59 24.19 1.39410256 1.94 585.33
Octubre 39.12 42.71 -3.588085 12.87 1,824.21
Noviembre 58.57 46.92 11.6478662 135.67 2,201.57
Diciembre 62.80 55.86 6.94064871 48.17 3,120.04
Media Qt= 40.184 Suma= 763.23 21485.8433

* Càlculo de la desviación estàndar de los residuos:

�= √((∑▒�^2 )/(𝑛−3))
n=12

S= 7.785

* Càlculo del coeficiente de regresiòn mùltiple:

〖 �〗 _�𝑡^2=1/(𝑛−1)  [∑▒ 〖� _𝑡^2  −𝑛((�_𝑡 )  ̅ )^2  〗 ]= 

191.699

�= [1− �^2/(�_�𝑡^2 )]^(1/2)= 
0.8270

S  1  r 2
 4.3770377

* Al reemplazar las variables en la ecuaciuón principal, tenemos:

4.38*Z
�_𝑡=10.19+0.2854 �_(𝑡−1)+0.4610  〖��〗 _𝑡+4.38 𝑧  

Caudales generados Qm (mm/mes) para un período z=1*12 (años-meses)

Número aleatorios para 12 meses (un año)
Con media 0 y Distribución estándar 1
Tabla 14. Caudales generados Qm (mm/mes) para un períod
Mes z Mes z Qt-1 P Et
Enero 0.47860226 Enero 0.479 62.80 52.12
Febrero 0.40554141 Febrero 0.406 39.66 62.68
Marzo 0.07308245 Marzo 0.073 47.11 75.68
Abril -0.4635581 Abril -0.464 53.88 44.29
Mayo 1.11845111 Mayo 1.118 44.29 26.28
Junio 0.04587719 Junio 0.046 52.88 11.17
Julio -2.2887252 Julio -2.289 27.48 7.39
Agosto 0.71497652 Agosto 0.715 17.23 7.68
Setiembre 0.36843858 Setiembre 0.368 13.61 21.95
Octubre 0.2948741 Octubre 0.295 25.59 54.70
Noviembre -0.5700838 Noviembre -0.570 39.12 55.45
Diciembre 0.61448418 Diciembre 0.614 58.57 62.80

VARIABLES Z GENERADOS = (53*12) (años-meses)

Tabla: Número aleatorios con distrobución Normal, con media 0 y desviación estándar 1 (z)
Año ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL
1965 0.82005727 0.20034349 -1.2246437 0.60582124 -1.1385509 -1.9446179 2.01634975
1966 -2.1378037 0.95662699 -0.0829812 0.61827677 0.47004164 -0.503544 -0.2702734
1967 -0.6035248 1.94920176 -0.4822937 -0.564512 1.3825138 -0.4593039 1.39071744
1968 -0.2991123 0.23473149 -0.5309153 0.8045231 -1.0346093 -1.3282738 -1.3092927
1969 0.202607 1.46736511 -0.426395 -1.7505727 0.9086466 -0.489008 -0.4797175
1970 -0.8300572 -0.7987228 0.04472781 1.41278178 -0.531885 -0.6096866 1.75234618
1971 0.17395109 -0.2694003 0.781165 0.70199803 0.54577185 0.90934009 -0.3809942
1972 1.26805389 0.69564976 1.65872734 0.18211267 -1.8558239 -0.3158743 0.27328952
1973 0.29783223 -0.3236028 -0.7179415 1.53286692 -0.2353613 -0.1346223 2.20221409
1974 1.27354269 1.15508783 0.84581416 0.46075002 1.40740667 0.23583311 0.91235279
1975 0.7151732 0.03316813 -0.0714726 -1.2504734 0.71260729 -0.3560228 0.32892785
1976 0.26060547 1.690114 -0.8730399 -1.8498667 -1.4500733 -1.2644705 0.04564754
1977 -0.0829812 0.90853064 -0.4798903 -0.6407527 -0.4162791 -0.8888264 -0.1734077
1978 1.59468982 -0.2835475 -0.4242179 0.79966867 0.40462851 0.11311386 -0.3164371
1979 3.48722097 -0.0263572 -1.1296743 -0.183901 0.67072506 -1.7667298 -0.8271445
1980 0.24118435 2.26125849 -0.4387425 -1.4428861 -1.8990522 0.2733691 -1.7338243
1981 -0.1201238 1.23065547 1.34926722 -0.4173637 0.25096256 0.44042849 1.76965386
1982 0.79693336 0.01403805 0.18164542 0.65841732 3.8654E-05 0.6537698 2.89059244
1983 -0.3240871 0.35252015 -1.8907576 -0.6840037 -1.5140677 0.68777808 -1.3513591
1984 0.71715021 -0.5634365 0.84373823 -0.6837138 0.5910897 -2.4119072 -1.7212369
1985 -1.8812443 0.88973593 0.18942728 1.07286041 -1.3386966 -0.5717948 -1.1147404
1986 1.04050741 -1.6638933 0.73017191 0.30599949 0.52765927 -1.9456365 -0.2747981
1987 -0.531885 -0.5058905 -0.3981609 -0.2843444 -0.8023062 -1.2842884 -0.7581218
1988 -0.9892938 0.77464165 0.07024482 0.29303692 -0.1813339 -1.4061743 -0.222326
1989 -0.96549 -0.5870857 -0.1346223 0.66346274 -2.5549525 0.10688041 -1.184967
 1990 1.36308245 0.75832531 -0.3573268 1.56667284 -1.0485587 -0.451497 1.97167537
1991 1.20370032 0.68110694 0.06556775 1.02317927 -0.9685414 -0.7350741 1.08573431
1992 -0.294076 0.76661308 -0.5018956 0.35048515 -0.708078 -1.1137445 -0.1493049
1993 0.56936415 -0.4517517 0.32594244 -1.7594903 -0.830812 1.79282779 -1.3628869
1994 -0.046183 -0.6329765 -0.3941886 0.16580202 0.62756385 0.11873681 -0.654054
1995 -0.4616004 -2.1860797 0.44380158 0.43663817 0.71685463 0.65860831 1.47776973
1996 1.58871444 0.99141744 -0.9167684 -1.7751745 -0.1279864 1.19537617 -0.8606764
1997 0.79326128 -0.7923188 0.14907187 0.70503461 0.21073447 1.55734597 0.18989567
1998 -0.9744281 0.75364369 0.39443648 0.14072384 0.66012944 -0.151083 -0.8276834
1999 -0.7093558 0.81152166 1.31635488 0.92706614 -1.5311343 0.12883447 -0.2044032
2000 0.36467554 0.385769 0.84822432 0.48487436 1.41361397 -0.4275682 1.23098289
2001 -1.1475186 -0.5276593 -0.2684487 0.81237204 -0.0938871 0.30207275 1.10821475
2002 -1.6248714 -1.0916847 0.03515879 -1.6043077 -0.7723725 -0.0645719 0.31949412
2003 -1.3383215 -0.4836693 0.69039743 -1.4213447 0.61263563 0.67436986 0.66441544
2004 1.62515789 1.2806322 0.94281631 -0.0820603 -0.0813691 0.36655592 -0.6095934
2005 -0.025974 1.31653678 -0.3225557 0.69399448 1.62115612 0.74331751 -0.3595301
2006 -1.3716544 0.30615865 1.01162868 -1.00021 -0.4277354 0.57215402 0.10303438
2007 0.06947857 -0.7641506 0.04809749 1.14751856 -0.2338675 0.01334911 -1.0827057
2008 -0.3317564 -1.0202143 -0.5909078 -0.995426 -0.7655865 -2.9274088 2.01169314
2009 -2.0745756 -0.8167422 -0.8370944 1.19976221 -0.492546 0.44794206 1.65120582
2010 -0.1652597 0.85956799 0.2941556 0.82897714 0.75343905 0.53329586 0.14930492
2011 0.75435537 -0.1552633 0.38403982 -0.8271445 -1.3260592 1.41215878 -2.6039197
2012 0.97062184 0.6121752 1.39434633 -0.4975618 -2.1561937 0.02735078 1.46826096
2013 0.29032321 -1.3147201 -0.2037007 1.25972292 -0.3379864 1.95901521 -0.2449667
2014 1.14545173 -0.0918885 -0.7312701 0.25507006 -1.2248051 -0.4762876 -0.6702453
2015 -2.8353679 -1.7195543 -1.1631755 -0.0471027 0.02444381 1.37440338 -0.5058905
2016 -1.5846717 0.18211267 0.34625828 -1.2558394 0.67994961 -1.6065314 0.50345761
2017 -0.4944468 -1.590879 0.77991899 1.12361249 1.02421382 0.20440325 0.59949116

HALLAMOS Pef PARA LOS 53 AÑOS EN LOS 12 MESES

TABLA 2A. PRECIPITACIÓN EFECTIVA MEDIA DE LA CUENCA TOROMOCHO -PUNTO EMISOR CAPTACIÓN T
Año ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL
1965 54.652 67.773 82.072 54.727 18.423 5.737 9.749
1966 48.440 43.076 60.239 40.634 35.535 3.542 4.316
1967 75.030 86.065 75.248 21.764 32.532 11.433 16.130
1968 36.034 56.999 66.427 21.869 21.736 3.156 4.705
1969 26.757 58.839 73.751 66.965 13.051 25.494 4.080
1970 51.700 44.973 2.522 49.764 34.073 16.412 7.791
1971 35.692 60.280 119.418 8.164 12.383 13.193 8.564
1972 34.531 59.636 85.422 64.596 19.212 10.313 4.053
1973 61.641 5.324 72.067 72.134 26.720 28.351 12.199
1974 42.406 75.445 72.067 37.415 17.015 21.823 14.328
1975 50.700 90.916 95.051 47.836 45.766 14.367 7.408
1976 69.487 47.196 57.164 20.208 26.895 17.436 2.751
1977 62.006 72.652 69.881 25.283 22.270 6.824 4.853
1978 14.573 45.177 55.726 31.569 45.549 5.003 4.853
 1979 5.350 61.623 102.028 20.494 20.379 3.215 8.767
1980 27.103 46.996 67.793 21.594 15.570 14.109 5.847
1981 48.237 105.922 78.049 31.520 23.585 12.315 7.142
1982 44.689 67.974 64.538 56.948 40.665 19.330 6.922
1983 83.488 52.529 91.955 67.298 28.398 12.218 8.155
1984 17.649 126.929 72.103 28.381 51.623 22.012 14.399
1985 16.855 45.056 55.622 28.381 22.773 3.374 6.557
1986 55.414 50.840 71.045 69.057 20.828 2.268 3.514
1987 63.405 67.705 57.551 35.582 15.070 6.181 15.497
1988 67.773 77.790 57.080 55.968 16.240 5.527 2.584
1989 58.548 86.406 76.545 53.407 17.606 15.044 4.531
1990 56.430 48.496 51.562 24.509 27.463 22.387 3.512
1991 29.865 60.376 65.764 39.247 15.793 3.052 5.234
1992 30.876 41.074 63.821 33.454 18.338 23.084 6.118
1993 39.822 63.462 90.035 54.944 26.997 3.909 3.222
1994 60.041 62.729 74.472 74.842 24.351 6.747 3.146
1995 13.635 50.094 59.777 31.644 2.753 7.930 3.794
1996 36.309 66.936 73.254 39.126 21.641 8.350 1.041
1997 36.970 46.082 32.292 35.266 10.450 5.915 1.603
1998 25.989 73.472 69.599 50.180 36.624 2.278 0.140
1999 69.608 136.115 51.251 26.864 42.367 43.453 6.513
2000 35.683 96.448 88.183 41.859 32.588 17.681 4.935
2001 102.806 56.183 115.488 37.981 27.545 2.629 4.726
2002 24.608 50.430 85.680 75.598 19.609 5.359 10.514
2003 46.366 5.363 50.667 22.927 8.233 9.119 1.309
2004 39.605 29.767 48.002 32.637 14.480 6.513 12.473
2005 45.439 62.340 128.162 57.454 10.635 5.629 4.572
2006 48.095 101.027 123.651 46.215 7.811 23.159 6.662
2007 60.452 28.797 99.520 62.085 25.674 2.408 19.505
2008 66.813 111.876 75.863 46.036 32.312 11.117 4.998
2009 120.534 7.640 101.431 81.762 55.175 28.963 10.443
2010 36.032 62.858 95.297 44.878 44.920 11.826 8.567
2011 47.826 61.121 93.825 88.501 15.198 7.680 4.669
2012 145.754 121.477 58.900 51.302 21.299 3.789 0.053
2013 46.621 58.533 91.361 36.569 65.237 4.494 56.550
2014 48.519 70.567 103.980 29.191 38.931 4.686 1.940
2015 119.806 53.958 78.402 48.313 54.271 4.164 5.060
2016 83.975 14.340 24.902 37.673 12.617 8.539 1.610
2017 91.928 76.585 134.753 65.017 35.582 8.540 9.058

GENERAMOS CAUDALES Qt RESPECTO A LA SIGUIENTE ECUACIÓN (mm/mes):

�_𝑡=13.094+0.179 �_(𝑡−1)+0.513 
〖��〗 _𝑡+3.60 𝑧  
(*) Nota: si se inicia el cálculo con el mes de enero, se toma como Qt-1 el valor de Qm de Diciembre; en este
Tabla Caudales medios mensuales (mm/mes) generados

Año ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL

1965 56.458 58.425 59.342 55.008 29.399 12.713 27.137
1966 32.509 43.514 50.017 45.904 41.731 21.528 17.139
1967 54.260 73.887 63.858 35.978 41.507 25.296 30.932
1968 38.397 48.454 52.320 38.725 26.734 13.460 10.469
1969 38.889 54.838 57.976 49.947 34.438 29.631 18.427
1970 50.145 41.739 23.460 46.011 36.702 25.561 28.746
1971 41.293 48.586 82.532 40.581 29.869 28.776 20.682
1972 46.539 54.011 72.247 61.388 28.444 21.679 19.440
1973 53.690 26.550 47.850 63.812 39.690 33.998 35.156
1974 50.344 64.397 65.496 48.149 37.935 32.109 29.952
1975 50.266 66.597 72.706 47.520 47.971 28.945 23.305
1976 54.122 54.793 48.361 25.211 23.437 19.381 17.188
1977 51.527 62.367 58.106 35.625 28.802 17.664 16.709
1978 37.785 40.560 45.600 41.258 44.735 25.758 18.393
1979 42.842 50.712 66.757 37.885 33.333 13.451 14.449
1980 35.273 51.821 54.314 29.331 17.426 22.863 11.821
1981 46.867 77.786 74.279 44.094 34.746 27.711 29.136
1982 52.023 56.437 56.846 55.551 44.792 34.746 35.949
1983 63.459 54.061 59.738 55.272 32.429 28.088 16.050
1984 38.232 77.154 69.145 40.016 47.997 23.479 15.994
1985 27.938 42.829 48.886 41.922 26.793 16.888 13.153
1986 53.322 41.564 58.002 59.921 39.203 13.907 14.575
1987 51.655 53.932 50.372 39.725 24.963 14.542 18.165
1988 52.894 64.540 55.233 53.039 32.020 15.721 14.893
1989 46.020 60.590 62.183 55.463 22.952 24.143 13.982
1990 56.197 51.906 47.211 41.820 30.196 27.152 28.187
1991 45.293 53.933 56.189 48.799 27.158 16.129 21.957
1992 38.740 43.538 49.842 41.372 27.352 23.763 19.138
1993 42.852 49.700 67.310 47.030 32.422 29.092 14.012
1994 54.818 51.984 57.635 61.869 41.821 25.755 16.127
1995 29.964 32.267 48.900 40.645 26.196 24.204 25.314
1996 56.268 61.448 57.487 36.865 30.127 27.869 14.855
1997 39.043 39.110 36.892 40.063 27.363 27.542 19.620
1998 31.868 56.456 60.117 51.097 44.547 23.292 13.278
1999 50.590 90.935 65.533 45.336 35.959 41.049 24.012
2000 46.439 69.598 74.422 52.850 46.485 29.736 26.339
2001 67.180 52.956 77.373 53.338 37.700 23.483 23.920
2002 31.161 37.554 60.563 55.306 31.633 21.405 22.544
2003 44.472 23.237 43.202 26.868 24.334 24.290 20.633
2004 46.123 42.682 48.628 38.755 27.569 22.664 19.740
2005 49.989 58.960 84.693 63.887 40.422 27.574 18.593
2006 43.639 70.562 91.764 53.308 27.132 31.114 22.591
 2007 60.453 37.374 66.949 62.943 38.966 22.478 20.858
2008 55.541 73.155 63.458 45.168 34.626 12.383 24.832
2009 68.848 29.786 61.790 70.771 53.670 40.820 33.881
2010 34.506 52.780 70.476 54.623 49.786 32.185 23.977
2011 55.237 53.454 70.383 67.459 30.645 28.657 9.123
2012 98.293 96.928 71.112 51.959 25.400 19.304 22.149
2013 47.903 45.092 64.288 50.911 53.317 36.052 45.478
2014 52.973 57.440 71.321 45.119 35.654 20.440 13.983
2015 70.512 47.664 54.848 47.911 48.991 32.107 19.471
2016 57.730 34.074 32.910 31.453 27.959 15.073 17.436
2017 64.205 56.859 91.958 71.328 51.434 29.700 25.466

La aplicación de dicha ecuación se hace a cada dato de la planilla de precipitaciones efectivas de todos los me
de la cuenca en estudio. Recuèrdese que z es un nùmero aleatorio con distribución normal, media cero y varia

Luego cada valor obtenido en mm/mes se convierte a caudal, multiplicando por el àrea de la cuenca y dividie

HALLAMOS CAUDALES Q RESPECTO A Pef, AR y los días de cada mes:

Q = (Qt*A*1000)/ (86400* # DE DÍAS X MES)

Año ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL

1965 0.98586794 1.12952908 1.03622757 0.99257177 0.51336133 0.22938933 0.47386637
1966 0.5676724 0.84124973 0.87340016 0.82829566 0.72869916 0.38844553 0.29928789
1967 0.94748968 1.42843889 1.11509115 0.64917944 0.72479127 0.45643844 0.54013065
1968 0.67047984 0.93675172 0.91360631 0.6987569 0.46682623 0.24287054 0.18280025
1969 0.67908083 1.06017511 1.01237098 0.90123948 0.6013542 0.5346625 0.32176869
1970 0.87562021 0.80692967 0.40965298 0.83022535 0.64088017 0.46122885 0.50196097
1971 0.72104652 0.93930885 1.4411647 0.73224107 0.52156612 0.5192324 0.36115311
1972 0.81265712 1.04418189 1.2615784 1.10767674 0.49668261 0.39117258 0.33946828
1973 0.93753641 0.51329504 0.83555351 1.15142091 0.693066 0.61346412 0.61388262
1974 0.87909623 1.24496815 1.14369357 0.86879594 0.66242637 0.57937801 0.52302231
1975 0.87774486 1.28749967 1.26957932 0.85745837 0.83766236 0.52228796 0.40695231
1976 0.94508204 1.05930302 0.84446886 0.45490329 0.40924837 0.34971912 0.30013929
1977 0.89976753 1.20573749 1.01465001 0.64281511 0.50293358 0.31873619 0.29176572
1978 0.65979698 0.78414032 0.79626742 0.74445814 0.78116193 0.46477945 0.32117185
1979 0.74810869 0.98040512 1.16570251 0.68360329 0.58205593 0.24271322 0.25231242
1980 0.615939 1.00184026 0.94842654 0.52924004 0.30429176 0.41254454 0.20640866
1981 0.81839255 1.5038291 1.29705963 0.79563156 0.60672413 0.50001259 0.5087689
1982 0.90842037 1.09108133 0.9926432 1.00235231 0.78215389 0.62695916 0.62773545
1983 1.10811302 1.04516186 1.04313524 0.99732441 0.56627478 0.50681528 0.28026374
1984 0.66759802 1.49160707 1.20740024 0.72203961 0.83812306 0.42365524 0.27929254
1985 0.48785596 0.82801531 0.85363998 0.75643515 0.46785918 0.3047332 0.22966884
1986 0.93110426 0.80354884 1.01283073 1.08120878 0.68455612 0.25093385 0.25450653
 1987 0.90200165 1.04266645 0.87959223 0.71680557 0.43589812 0.26238798 0.31719911
1988 0.92363581 1.24775078 0.96447181 0.95703656 0.5591363 0.28366063 0.26006734
1989 0.80359394 1.1713856 1.0858375 1.0007775 0.40079466 0.43564108 0.24414727
1990 0.9813153 1.00348676 0.8244001 0.75460147 0.5272868 0.48992659 0.49220439
1991 0.79089546 1.04266956 0.98115978 0.88052193 0.47423603 0.29103843 0.38341838
1992 0.67647789 0.84170521 0.87033572 0.74651348 0.47761129 0.42877715 0.33418383
1993 0.74828601 0.96085119 1.17536552 0.84860504 0.56614383 0.52492961 0.24467145
1994 0.95723505 1.0050046 1.00641192 1.1163691 0.73026834 0.46472038 0.28160323
1995 0.52322496 0.62381803 0.85389376 0.73340612 0.45743584 0.43673322 0.44203129
1996 0.98254629 1.18796112 1.00383644 0.66518945 0.526083 0.50286702 0.25940187
1997 0.68176319 0.75610021 0.64419675 0.72289492 0.4778171 0.49696939 0.34259701
1998 0.55647672 1.09146185 1.04975118 0.92200164 0.77787368 0.42027185 0.23185328
1999 0.88339745 1.75802257 1.14433453 0.81803923 0.62791182 0.74069466 0.41930157
2000 0.81091564 1.34552766 1.29954291 0.95363076 0.81171279 0.53655491 0.45992767
2001 1.17309629 1.02378525 1.35107885 0.96243517 0.65831814 0.42372118 0.41769545
2002 0.54413208 0.7260305 1.05754354 0.99793578 0.55237506 0.38623584 0.39365811
2003 0.77656749 0.44923578 0.75439199 0.48480379 0.42492495 0.43828292 0.36028334
2004 0.80539337 0.82516005 0.84913739 0.69929715 0.48141243 0.40895346 0.34469146
2005 0.87291179 1.13986532 1.47890043 1.15277879 0.70583891 0.49754117 0.32466536
2006 0.76202255 1.36415402 1.60237968 0.96189682 0.47378021 0.56142242 0.39448794
2007 1.05561675 0.722552 1.16906177 1.13574396 0.68042906 0.40560057 0.36421287
2008 0.96985168 1.414292 1.10808992 0.8150069 0.60463583 0.22344212 0.43361575
2009 1.20222638 0.57585059 1.07897373 1.27699719 0.93717526 0.73656214 0.59162679
2010 0.60254607 1.0203835 1.23064611 0.98560755 0.86936756 0.58074244 0.41869254
2011 0.96455046 1.03341303 1.22902439 1.21723046 0.5351189 0.51708429 0.15930225
2012 1.7163887 1.87389602 1.2417444 0.93755179 0.44353689 0.34832865 0.38676461
2013 0.83648146 0.87176257 1.12259692 0.91863791 0.931013 0.65052569 0.79413604
2014 0.92500334 1.11047037 1.24539786 0.81412429 0.62258609 0.36881896 0.24416676
2015 1.23127681 0.92147764 0.95774421 0.86450503 0.8554775 0.57933155 0.33999672
2016 1.00807398 0.65873986 0.574673 0.56754085 0.48821636 0.27198264 0.30447181
2017 1.12113469 1.0992448 1.60575693 1.28704138 0.89814327 0.53591112 0.44467827

Mes Día
Enero 31
Febrero 28
Marzo 31
Abril 30
Mayo 31
Junio 30
Julio 31
Agosto 31
Septiembre 30
Octubre 31
Noviembre 30
Diciembre 31
Q es difícil hallar datos históricos es x
ello que tenemos que multiplicar por
una variable aleatoria
 Incluye Esc.Superficial y flujo base

expresada en el cuadro inferior:

Las pérdidas en Pe son las pérdidas por evapotranspiración

as, nevados y no solo en acuíferos

agotamiento

uerdo al tipo de variable de la cuenca

amiento se calcula en meses de estiaje
rama se encuentra en los puntos más
bajos
 (P Et)(P Et)
2716.892854
3929.319606
5728.094
1962.040934
690.5929504
124.7965593
54.61077508
58.97006905
481.8492631
2992.135475
3075.057417
3943.581589
25757.94149
Σ(PEt)(PEt)
= Qt- , con la siguiente fórmula:
ES ESTOCÁSTICO
mm/mes) para un período extendido
Qm
Componente estocástica porque tienes valores aleatorios para (predecir) que
57.71 en el futuro sepamos que se va a repetir el mismo fenómemo de acuerdo a
52.06 antecedentes
60.83
47.47
38.54 Cualquier valor es útil para punto de arranque
32.44
13.06
16.26
20.57
41.54
45.84
61.26 (* Valor de arranque )
Qt-1=Del mes de enero

AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC

1.062310275 -0.0307182 1.23507334 2.69596057 0.22640506
0.20088919 -0.9808423 -1.5756086 0.59227432 -0.4467586
-1.46534603 -1.0141821 0.50467406 1.56876467 -0.2017487
-0.26377279 0.46671175 -0.1997182 -0.0733894 1.03460934
-0.17247658 -0.1091894 0.03975174 0.46918785 -0.19769
0.879779236 0.7190306 -1.1852762 0.60904085 -0.1765147
-0.15147066 0.68023837 0.42798774 -1.1003317 -0.5028494
-0.46765081 1.07722371 -2.0805328 -0.5535117 -0.0422779
1.186203917 0.46602963 -0.7078825 2.07194716 -0.9892938
0.153714836 -1.2025953 0.00241016 0.12158694 -0.6902042
0.927418569 -0.9652467 -1.3386966 0.66603889 -1.1743828
-0.33531478 -0.8116285 2.00766408 1.38690211 0.04771437
0.60233333 -1.4789111 1.38430551 0.13462227 -0.9006999
1.747748684 0.83774694 0.12436203 1.13534043 0.11842758
0.529771569 -0.1790022 -0.0539194 -0.0975751 -1.0437975
-0.70092028 0.24551809 0.77940058 0.29935109 -2.5114423
1.15285502 -0.3516243 1.51623681 -0.1128069 0.42279453
-0.68671284 -1.5026126 0.27535407 -0.2972729 -1.1349016
1.208290996 0.18709216 -0.4891808 -1.6509057 -0.2047159
0.48874881 0.66804432 -0.3686023 -0.4185335 1.62630386
0.019851996 -0.0226839 -1.3388853 0.04357958 -0.1280637
0.37557129 -0.8136499 1.28097781 -1.1021552 0.4477738
-0.27225724 -1.9616255 1.40309567 0.66594339 0.17659204
-0.30960791 0.2875322 1.54184363 -1.3992167 -0.9192172
1.598245944 1.74844899 -0.098114 0.5907259 1.52768735
 -0.6813957 1.47481387 -0.2598142 1.44202204 0.3400919
-0.47877393 1.78487426 -0.3876653 0.32626417 0.60168986
0.791690127 0.66785333 1.71421561 -0.5772085 -0.7130018
0.064035248 -0.7677409 -0.5708034 0.19831418 1.62058768
1.146190698 0.61272885 0.5306515 0.43958607 -1.2609053
0.545683179 0.53726808 -0.6907862 1.99912392 -0.3228774
-1.60458512 0.48435822 1.30193712 -0.9065684 -0.6936057
-0.04771437 -1.644662 0.95409177 -0.0168689 0.25554414
1.755197445 -0.6071082 1.38271389 0.76979859 0.51556526
-0.13215185 -1.4321404 0.58854084 0.43739647 -0.7274775
1.165133199 -0.4829826 -0.8043116 -0.8225231 0.74311629
0.879215349 1.38971245 -0.5914535 -1.0361782 -0.876405
-0.18172386 0.70739134 0.05146831 0.08336428 -0.207998
-1.16438059 0.8017787 -0.7034669 0.10118811 -1.0802341
-0.32005801 -0.6757136 -1.1534507 -0.4373965 0.59528475
-1.01456635 -0.3363664 0.22012955 1.18961225 -1.5687647
0.149382231 -0.4790309 -0.6883602 -0.1118826 0.09588462
1.267881089 0.8891675 -0.0422017 0.72419198 1.35863957
1.752700882 -0.8050529 0.20323114 -0.0743103 -0.7997755
0.452682798 -0.2709078 -0.3060791 -1.6364356 -0.0732359
1.144715043 -0.383875 1.64941412 0.49271875 -0.066027
-0.26717998 0.68962095 -0.7526273 -0.7314702 -0.7288736
-0.75415073 -0.2668628 -1.4100897 1.002104 -0.1916874
1.407820491 0.86333785 0.87136186 -0.2179365 -0.0185514
-2.9563671 1.56955139 -0.0109776 -0.3303012 0.40346549
0.162777951 -0.7415042 -0.7835547 1.37854613 0.04534058
0.875394335 1.05440904 0.15170258 -0.3985747 0.01227818
0.558779902 0.29887133 -0.1671208 0.01602757 1.09168468

TO EMISOR CAPTACIÓN TRES MOLINOS

AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC
4.821 35.223 70.611 60.770 5.624
6.197 11.050 74.768 57.906 42.324
6.685 8.399 12.145 39.480 52.164
9.371 41.712 54.754 48.400 57.854
5.107 14.286 67.147 77.667 91.781
4.866 16.137 78.457 49.693 54.296
10.654 19.487 85.831 56.993 65.629
9.486 21.020 31.984 60.033 56.777
12.142 54.554 49.430 54.055 66.554
12.109 29.175 56.591 48.487 59.425
11.603 32.674 60.055 5.056 54.148
5.345 7.904 28.031 50.489 46.254
4.416 12.264 45.966 55.018 62.322
4.970 21.300 29.720 56.372 58.840
12.399 29.163 25.192 41.138 52.391
6.675 3.429 104.204 88.649 71.319
17.333 18.190 91.904 51.654 76.205
5.215 39.909 101.599 62.129 76.847
7.911 19.016 68.040 46.580 83.835
10.869 29.208 65.969 66.912 68.058
9.110 29.145 39.333 39.015 55.167
11.148 8.717 37.431 55.944 58.350
6.272 28.679 32.237 65.483 62.914
4.457 24.783 55.698 56.864 58.264
5.240 37.300 81.181 47.855 37.980
6.449 13.729 64.578 66.085 59.411
4.491 9.889 26.678 48.534 64.679
9.662 32.033 54.236 42.226 48.354
7.135 30.330 75.438 56.101 61.187
4.815 11.520 26.726 61.766 76.989
1.062 9.366 9.997 62.200 118.387
5.977 12.466 56.873 20.787 29.568
2.404 12.560 34.605 54.697 53.670
0.873 12.054 75.391 61.729 23.748
3.047 50.470 22.476 53.535 94.657
12.773 52.865 5.949 32.655 64.815
1.182 28.857 52.550 74.510 81.244
1.123 17.793 80.776 61.484 88.659
6.144 12.571 16.432 20.419 52.233
5.108 20.624 55.345 80.172 81.870
6.351 16.402 117.687 31.498 93.020
7.855 15.651 61.337 69.275 111.744
16.853 15.306 92.763 82.090 44.089
17.075 39.610 68.562 56.501 46.471
13.574 21.230 75.651 84.781 7.505
1.650 14.107 45.742 102.174 83.526
2.069 29.502 32.264 60.293 84.495
4.108 3.015 84.210 121.985 41.182
22.669 4.632 64.858 29.352 71.883
4.232 18.251 28.910 55.343 80.363
7.797 17.023 22.868 58.458 66.432
6.385 25.893 39.293 22.127 64.313
19.730 22.930 58.649 25.600 58.477
m de Diciembre; en este caso es 61.26 Es el Qm del mes de diciembre
Y el Qt de enero

AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC

24.806 33.373 57.674 66.467 32.743
18.817 16.360 42.433 51.589 42.470
15.685 14.098 22.020 41.542 45.212
16.342 36.127 44.869 44.988 54.230
17.047 21.163 47.360 61.567 69.210
24.487 27.764 49.097 49.778 48.656
20.340 27.956 59.612 48.663 52.134
18.063 29.750 24.319 42.384 48.277
31.013 46.231 43.074 56.473 52.661
24.993 25.509 43.570 45.511 47.554
26.249 28.520 40.157 26.896 37.689
16.091 14.872 36.144 49.852 45.951
19.630 14.972 41.713 48.049 48.693
25.379 30.919 33.259 50.641 52.288
22.348 29.229 29.909 37.264 40.410
13.571 16.717 66.414 71.325 52.434
31.542 26.038 66.628 52.526 62.165
19.847 27.676 66.134 56.407 56.750
23.706 26.540 46.991 37.850 58.747
21.904 32.830 48.360 53.008 63.814
18.229 28.729 30.662 37.118 45.656
21.132 16.677 37.813 41.949 51.023
17.073 19.697 36.814 53.801 55.323
15.139 27.194 50.378 44.659 45.773
23.590 41.771 59.109 51.708 49.144
18.224 28.175 46.866 60.344 56.291
16.430 27.250 28.568 42.147 54.671
23.571 34.608 52.574 42.136 41.387
17.757 25.880 49.857 51.151 60.091
22.028 24.469 31.817 49.670 54.341
20.292 22.650 18.238 52.821 78.432
10.161 20.956 48.089 29.529 29.213
16.688 13.543 34.184 45.089 48.920
22.063 19.386 56.532 58.153 39.991
17.868 32.289 32.342 46.016 63.779
28.695 40.637 21.009 27.640 51.213
21.409 35.686 42.013 51.996 58.650
16.345 26.153 55.119 54.632 65.746
13.813 23.436 21.374 26.146 37.004
16.777 21.528 36.800 55.740 66.448
13.982 20.269 71.196 50.238 60.547
20.912 21.276 41.527 53.490 77.394
 29.461 29.545 61.204 68.674 56.063
32.820 34.294 52.476 50.890 42.638
28.098 26.810 51.379 56.778 29.533
22.803 21.521 44.639 72.192 69.013
12.577 30.398 30.445 43.474 58.362
15.103 14.721 47.042 84.242 52.380
39.782 27.457 51.742 37.535 53.961
3.190 26.384 30.999 43.106 61.308
20.053 20.515 23.157 49.783 55.224
21.941 33.003 38.388 29.602 48.342
28.999 30.345 45.158 34.950 51.902

ectivas de todos los meses y de todos los años del registro generado
mal, media cero y varianza 1.

a de la cuenca y dividiendo por el tiempo mensual expresado en segundos.

AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC

0.433166373 0.60218939 1.00710481 1.19933317 0.57175392
0.328576718 0.29520351 0.74095566 0.93086603 0.74161314
0.273886812 0.25438954 0.38452009 0.74957963 0.78948617
0.285365287 0.65186983 0.783507 0.81176111 0.94696149
0.297681452 0.38185776 0.82700164 1.11091892 1.20854325
0.427591153 0.50098124 0.85732852 0.89818814 0.84962773
0.355182203 0.50443359 1.04094615 0.87807044 0.91036794
0.315422339 0.53680902 0.42465865 0.76478486 0.8430141
0.541538221 0.83419883 0.7521599 1.01900178 0.91955559
0.436418228 0.46027589 0.76082307 0.82119713 0.83038774
0.458358771 0.51460857 0.701217 0.48530885 0.6581221
0.280974036 0.26835859 0.63114657 0.8995354 0.80238875
0.342771923 0.27015555 0.72839427 0.86699708 0.85027497
0.443171622 0.55790546 0.58077442 0.91375946 0.91304744
0.390235791 0.52739902 0.52227134 0.67239188 0.70563085
0.236983282 0.30164915 1.15971205 1.28699141 0.91559854
0.550776915 0.46982873 1.16345526 0.94778088 1.08551322
0.34657026 0.49937981 1.1548336 1.01780847 0.9909629
0.413943498 0.47889486 0.82056012 0.68296332 1.0258339
0.382478705 0.59238333 0.84444971 0.95648057 1.11430929
0.318316643 0.51838936 0.53541724 0.6697549 0.79724269
0.369004897 0.30092585 0.66027908 0.75692902 0.89096068
0.298129673 0.35542079 0.64284666 0.97078186 0.96604309
0.264351627 0.49068649 0.87969684 0.80583453 0.79929133
0.411930801 0.75372151 1.03215975 0.93301703 0.85814356
0.318229368 0.50838482 0.8183687 1.08885152 0.98295211
0.286904321 0.49169005 0.49886074 0.76049468 0.95466318
0.411589294 0.62445914 0.91805077 0.76029263 0.72269477
0.310076514 0.46697408 0.87059153 0.92296769 1.04930444
0.38465146 0.44151354 0.55558045 0.89625046 0.94889912
0.354331656 0.4086942 0.31847771 0.9531059 1.36958129
0.177425778 0.37813041 0.83972423 0.53282399 0.51010896
0.291398299 0.24437604 0.59692445 0.81358624 0.85423999
0.385267637 0.34979577 0.98716059 1.04930669 0.6983262
0.312016466 0.58261356 0.5647594 0.8303126 1.11369792
0.501063179 0.73325949 0.36686135 0.49873202 0.89426986
0.373839697 0.64391641 0.73362101 0.93821692 1.02413731
0.285414773 0.47190619 0.96248957 0.98577621 1.14805596
0.241205049 0.42287814 0.37323077 0.47176999 0.64616569
0.292951414 0.38844351 0.64260383 1.00577454 1.16031625
0.244158468 0.36573158 1.24321146 0.90648522 1.0572597
0.36515754 0.38389961 0.72513871 0.96517236 1.35144006
0.51444607 0.53311789 1.06874414 1.23914935 0.97896409
0.573092995 0.61879831 0.91633125 0.91825283 0.74453351
0.490648465 0.48376462 0.89717908 1.02449218 0.51569993
0.398185286 0.38831625 0.77948861 1.30263899 1.20510224
0.219612965 0.54850534 0.53163379 0.78444562 1.01911377
0.263728626 0.26562853 0.82144819 1.52005662 0.91464848
0.694668056 0.49543124 0.90350643 0.6772735 0.94226795
0.055708972 0.4760666 0.54130925 0.77780021 1.07056036
0.350164728 0.37016751 0.40436614 0.89828648 0.964312
0.383123718 0.59551376 0.67032683 0.5341306 0.84414339
0.506377725 0.54754559 0.78853952 0.63063512 0.90631296
AJUSTE A UNA DISTRIBUCION NORMAL
PRUEBA DE SMIRNOV - KOLMOGOROV

P(X<x)= �=  (𝑥 − 
Q=x �  ̅)/�
l/s m/n+1 ∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|
m F(Z)
1 68 0.07692308 -0.850 0.1977 0.12077692 0.12077692
2 146 0.15384615 -0.459 0.3228 0.16895385 0.16895385
3 224 0.23076923 -0.069 0.4721 0.24133077 0.24133077
4 302 0.30769231 0.321 0.6255 0.31780769 0.31780769
5 380 0.38461538 0.711 0.7612 0.37658462 0.37658462
6 458 0.46153846 1.101 0.8643 0.40276154 0.40276154 ∆máx
7 536 0.53846154 1.491 0.9319 0.39343846 0.39343846
8 614 0.61538462 1.882 0.97 0.35461538 0.35461538
9 692 0.69230769 2.272 0.9884 0.29609231 0.29609231
10 770 0.76923077 2.662 0.9961 0.22686923 0.22686923
11 848 0.84615385 3.052 0.9989 0.15274615 0.15274615
12 926 0.92307692 3.442 0.9997 0.07662308 0.07662308

DESVIACION ESTANDAR DIST. NORMAL

PROMEDIO 𝑥_�  − �  ̅ (𝑥_�−�  ̅ ) (𝑥_�−�  ̅ )
^2 ^2 �_�
k xi fi xi fi
1 68 48 3264 -169.85 28849.1812 1384761
2 146 81 11826 -91.85 8436.50834 683357.18
3 224 26 5824 -13.85 191.835444 4987.7215
4 302 17 5134 64.15 4115.16255 69957.763
5 380 8 3040 142.15 20206.4896 161651.92
6 458 7 3206 220.15 48465.8168 339260.72
7 536 5 2680 298.15 88893.1439 444465.72
8 614 8 4912 376.15 141488.471 1131908
9 692 4 2768 454.15 206251.798 825007.19
10 770 4 3080 532.15 283183.125 1132733
11 848 5 4240 610.15 372282.452 1861412
12 926 1 926 688.15 473549.779 473549.78
∑ xi fi = 50900 ∑ = 8513051

�  ̅=(∑_1^12▒ 〖� _�  �= 

237.85 l/s 199.92
�_�  〗 )/214 = √((∑_1^12▒ 〖 (𝑥_�− 
�  ̅  )^2 �_�  〗 )/213) =
Valor crítico del estadístico Smirnov-Kolmogorov :
Para n = 12, se obtiene de la tabla ∆o = 0.375

Criterio de decisión:
∆o ˂ ∆máx : No se ajusta a una distribución normal
 AJUSTE A UNA DISTRIBUCION LOG NORMAL
PRUEBA DE SMIRNOV-KOLMOGOROV
�=(𝑙�𝑔𝑥−�_𝑦
log Q= )/�_𝑦  ∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|
logx
m P(x) F(Z)
1 1.832508913 0.07692308 -1.327 0.0918 0.01487692
2 2.164352856 0.15384615 -0.281 0.3897 0.23585385
3 2.350248018 0.23076923 0.304 0.6179 0.38713077
4 2.480006943 0.30769231 0.713 0.76115 0.45345769
5 2.579783597 0.38461538 1.028 0.8485 0.46388462 ∆máx
6 2.660865478 0.46153846 1.283 0.8907 0.42916154
7 2.72916479 0.53846154 1.498 0.93319 0.39472846
8 2.788168371 0.61538462 1.684 0.9535 0.33811538
9 2.840106094 0.69230769 1.848 0.97 0.27769231
10 2.886490725 0.76923077 1.994 0.97725 0.20801923
11 2.928395852 0.84615385 2.126 0.98341 0.13725615
12 2.966610987 0.92307692 2.246 0.9878 0.06472308

ST. NORMAL DESVIACION ESTANDAR DIST. LOG. NORMAL

(𝑥_�−�  ̅ ) PROMEDIO DIST. LOG NORMAL logxi-�_𝑦 ("logxi−"  ("logxi−" 
^2 �_� �_𝑦 )^2 �_𝑦 )^2 �_�
k log xi fi logxi fi
1 1.832508913 48 87.9604278 -0.4210895 0.17731633 8.51118389
2 2.164352856 81 175.312581 -0.0892455 0.00796476 0.64514571
3 2.350248018 26 61.1064485 0.09664965 0.00934115 0.24287002
4 2.480006943 17 42.160118 0.22640857 0.05126084 0.87143431
5 2.579783597 8 20.6382688 0.32618523 0.1063968 0.85117442
6 2.660865478 7 18.6260583 0.40726711 0.1658665 1.16106548
7 2.72916479 5 13.6458239 0.47556642 0.22616342 1.1308171
8 2.788168371 8 22.305347 0.53457 0.28576509 2.28612069
9 2.840106094 4 11.3604244 0.58650772 0.34399131 1.37596524
10 2.886490725 4 11.5459629 0.63289236 0.40055273 1.60221093
11 2.928395852 5 14.6419793 0.67479748 0.45535164 2.27675821
12 2.966610987 1 2.96661099 0.71301262 0.50838699 0.50838699
∑= 482.270051 ∑= 21.463133

μ_𝑦=(∑_1^12▒ 〖〖� 2.25359837 �_𝑦= √((∑_1^12▒ 〖 ( 〖𝑙�

���〗 _� �_�  〗 )/�= 𝑔𝑥〗 _�− �_𝑦  )^2 �_�  〗 )/ 0.31743642
(�−1)) =

Valor crítico del estadístico Smirnov-Kolmogorov :

Para n = 12, se obtiene de la tabla ∆o =

Criterio de decisión:
∆o ˂ ∆máx : No se ajusta a una distribución log
STANDAR DIST. LOG. NORMAL
("logxi−" 
�_𝑦 )^2 �_�

Smirnov-Kolmogorov :
0.375
o se ajusta a una distribución log -normal
AJUSTE A UNA DISTRIBUCION NORMAL
PRUEBA DE SMIRNOV - KOLMOGOROV
Para el mes de ENERO:
Modelo para cuenca no impactada que no ha
se aproveche el caudal y si fuera impactada s
aquellos ramales que tengan caudales repres

n= 53
Modelo probabilístico Modelo normal
�=  (𝑥 − 
m Q=x (l/S) P(X<x) = m/n+1 �  ̅)/� F(Z) ∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|

1 0.48785596 0.0185185185 -1.750 0.04007507 0.0215565527

2 0.52322496 0.037037037 -1.583 0.05669727 0.0196602296
3 0.54413208 0.0555555556 -1.485 0.06882744 0.0132718798
4 0.55647672 0.0740740741 -1.426 0.07687653 0.0028024539
5 0.5676724 0.0925925926 -1.374 0.08477779 -0.0078148017
6 0.60254607 0.1111111111 -1.209 0.1132795 0.0021683911
7 0.615939 0.1296296296 -1.146 0.12586692 -0.0037627136
8 0.65979698 0.1481481481 -0.939 0.17375208 0.0256039294
9 0.66759802 0.1666666667 -0.903 0.18334937 0.0166827011
10 0.67047984 0.1851851852 -0.889 0.18697679 0.0017916051
11 0.67647789 0.2037037037 -0.861 0.19466785 -0.0090358574
12 0.67908083 0.2222222222 -0.849 0.19806453 -0.0241576912
13 0.68176319 0.2407407407 -0.836 0.20160203 -0.0391387058
14 0.72104652 0.2592592593 -0.651 0.25759859 -0.0016606679
15 0.74810869 0.2777777778 -0.523 0.30041056 0.022632786
16 0.74828601 0.2962962963 -0.522 0.30070139 0.0044050952
17 0.76202255 0.3148148148 -0.458 0.32360457 0.0087897547
18 0.77656749 0.3333333333 -0.389 0.34860439 0.0152710593
19 0.79089546 0.3518518519 -0.322 0.37389228 0.0220404241
20 0.80359394 0.3703703704 -0.262 0.39677143 0.0264010554
21 0.80539337 0.3888888889 -0.253 0.40004449 0.0111556026
22 0.81091564 0.4074074074 -0.227 0.41013218 0.002724776
23 0.81265712 0.4259259259 -0.219 0.4133261 -0.0125998274
24 0.81839255 0.4444444444 -0.192 0.42388457 -0.0205598745
25 0.83648146 0.462962963 -0.107 0.45750917 -0.0054537935
26 0.87291179 0.4814814815 0.065 0.52590849 0.0444270085
27 0.87562021 0.5 0.078 0.53098801 0.0309880138
28 0.87774486 0.5185185185 0.088 0.53496922 0.0164507012
29 0.87909623 0.537037037 0.094 0.53749965 0.00046261
30 0.88339745 0.5555555556 0.114 0.54554304 -0.0100125126
31 0.89976753 0.5740740741 0.192 0.57595747 0.0018833935
32 0.90200165 0.5925925926 0.202 0.58007758 -0.0125150149
33 0.90842037 0.6111111111 0.232 0.59186457 -0.0192465443
34 0.92363581 0.6296296296 0.304 0.61945729 -0.0101723406
35 0.92500334 0.6481481481 0.311 0.62191002 -0.0262381246
36 0.93110426 0.6666666667 0.339 0.63279128 -0.0338753907
37 0.93753641 0.6851851852 0.370 0.64414876 -0.041036427
38 0.94508204 0.7037037037 0.405 0.65731045 -0.0463932584
39 0.94748968 0.7222222222 0.416 0.66147107 -0.0607511513
40 0.95723505 0.7407407407 0.462 0.67810711 -0.0626336354
 41 0.96455046 0.7592592593 0.497 0.69036681 -0.0688924525
42 0.96985168 0.7777777778 0.522 0.69912149 -0.0786562911
43 0.9813153 0.7962962963 0.576 0.71766016 -0.078636134
44 0.98254629 0.8148148148 0.582 0.71961777 -0.0951970494
45 0.98586794 0.8333333333 0.597 0.72486702 -0.1084663134
46 1.00807398 0.8518518519 0.702 0.7586669 -0.0931849501
47 1.05561675 0.8703703704 0.926 0.82280152 -0.047568852
48 1.10811302 0.8888888889 1.174 0.87970516 -0.009183732
49 1.12113469 0.9074074074 1.235 0.89156363 -0.0158437801
50 1.17309629 0.9259259259 1.480 0.93053487 0.0046089463
51 1.20222638 0.9444444444 1.617 0.94706942 0.0026249716
52 1.23127681 0.962962963 1.754 0.96028446 -0.0026785019
53 1.7163887 0.9814814815 4.040 0.99997332 0.0184918356
Promedio (�  ) 0.85912282 ∆máx=
Des.Standar (S) 0.21217485

Según Tabla 5.3. Valores críticos de ∆ o del estadístico Smirnov-Kolmogorrov , para varios valores de N y nivel

Para hidrología α=0.05

Para N>35 α = 1.36 / (N)^1/2

α= 0.186810367

Entonces α > ∆máx= 0.186810367 > 0.1084663134

Por lo tanto SÍ se ajusta a la distribución normal

F(z<=z)=0.25
F(z>=z)=0.75 Predisposición al 75%

Q F(Z)
0.68176319 0.2016020349
x 0.25
0.72104652 0.2575985913

( 0.7210465233 - x ) + ( 0.0392833329 ) = ( 0.00759859 ) + (

0.7210465233 - X = 0.02431181
- X = -0.6967347
X = 0.69673471 m3/S

Para el mes de FEBRERO:

n= 53
Modelo probabilístico Modelo normal
�=  (𝑥 − 
m Q=x (l/S) P(X<x) = m/n+1 �  ̅)/� F(Z) ∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|

1 0.44923578 0.0185185185 -2.060 0.01971858 0.0012000661

 2 0.51329504 0.037037037 -1.835 0.0332571 -0.0037799324
3 0.57585059 0.0555555556 -1.616 0.05309448 -0.0024610709
4 0.62381803 0.0740740741 -1.447 0.07390055 -0.0001735226
5 0.65873986 0.0925925926 -1.325 0.09260671 1.4120137854E-05
6 0.722552 0.1111111111 -1.101 0.1354297 0.0243185881
7 0.7260305 0.1296296296 -1.089 0.13810194 0.0084723144
8 0.75610021 0.1481481481 -0.983 0.16269713 0.0145489861
9 0.78414032 0.1666666667 -0.885 0.18805202 0.0213853548
10 0.80354884 0.1851851852 -0.817 0.20695492 0.0217697363
11 0.80692967 0.2037037037 -0.805 0.21035905 0.0066553443
12 0.82516005 0.2222222222 -0.741 0.22927314 0.0070509186
13 0.82801531 0.2407407407 -0.731 0.23231951 -0.0084212288
14 0.84124973 0.2592592593 -0.685 0.24672977 -0.012529489
15 0.84170521 0.2777777778 -0.683 0.24723409 -0.0305436828
16 0.87176257 0.2962962963 -0.578 0.28169643 -0.0145998645
17 0.92147764 0.3148148148 -0.403 0.34330482 0.0284900046
18 0.93675172 0.3333333333 -0.350 0.36320889 0.0298755551
19 0.93930885 0.3518518519 -0.341 0.36657932 0.0147274647
20 0.96085119 0.3703703704 -0.265 0.3953589 0.024988525
21 0.98040512 0.3888888889 -0.197 0.42199059 0.0331016993
22 1.00184026 0.4074074074 -0.122 0.45159547 0.0441880652
23 1.00348676 0.4259259259 -0.116 0.45388287 0.0279569482
24 1.0050046 0.4444444444 -0.111 0.45599287 0.0115484294
25 1.0203835 0.462962963 -0.057 0.47743156 0.0144685998
26 1.02378525 0.4814814815 -0.045 0.48218475 0.0007032702
27 1.03341303 0.5 -0.011 0.49564891 -0.0043510948
28 1.04266645 0.5185185185 0.022 0.5085944 -0.0099241141
29 1.04266956 0.537037037 0.022 0.50859876 -0.0284382802
30 1.04418189 0.5555555556 0.027 0.510714 -0.0448415599
31 1.04516186 0.5740740741 0.030 0.51208449 -0.0619895832
32 1.05930302 0.5925925926 0.080 0.53183704 -0.0607555545
33 1.06017511 0.6111111111 0.083 0.53305313 -0.0780579853
34 1.09108133 0.6296296296 0.191 0.57586802 -0.0537616138
35 1.09146185 0.6481481481 0.193 0.57639067 -0.0717574767
36 1.0992448 0.6666666667 0.220 0.58705 -0.0796166664
37 1.11047037 0.6851851852 0.259 0.60230993 -0.0828752599
38 1.12952908 0.7037037037 0.326 0.6278517 -0.0758520084
39 1.13986532 0.7222222222 0.362 0.64148004 -0.0807421793
40 1.1713856 0.7407407407 0.473 0.68187851 -0.0588622326
41 1.18796112 0.7592592593 0.531 0.70232109 -0.0569381665
42 1.20573749 0.7777777778 0.593 0.72355299 -0.05422479
43 1.24496815 0.7962962963 0.731 0.76761338 -0.0286829155
44 1.24775078 0.8148148148 0.741 0.77058301 -0.0442318008
45 1.28749967 0.8333333333 0.880 0.81061536 -0.0227179683
46 1.34552766 0.8518518519 1.084 0.86074407 0.0088922202
47 1.36415402 0.8703703704 1.149 0.87472002 0.0043496512
48 1.414292 0.8888888889 1.325 0.90738499 0.0184960974
49 1.42843889 0.9074074074 1.374 0.91534669 0.0079392815
 50 1.49160707 0.9259259259 1.596 0.94475156 0.0188256362
51 1.5038291 0.9444444444 1.639 0.94937525 0.0049308071
52 1.75802257 0.962962963 2.530 0.99430132 0.0313383575
53 1.87389602 0.9814814815 2.937 0.99834104 0.0168595618
Promedio (�  ) 1.03652306 ∆máx=
Des.Standar (S) 0.28514682

Según Tabla 5.3. Valores críticos de ∆ o del estadístico Smirnov-Kolmogorrov , para varios valores de N y nivel

Para hidrología α=0.05

Para N>35 α = 1.36 / (N)^1/2

α= 0.186810367

Entonces α > ∆máx= 0.186810367 > 0.0828752599

Por lo tanto SÍ se ajusta a la distribución normal

F(z<=z)=0.25
F(z>=z)=0.75 Predisposición al 75%

Q F(Z)
0.84170521 0.247234095
x 0.25
0.87176257 0.2816964318

( 0.871762572 - x ) + ( 0.0300573618 ) = ( 0.03169643 ) + (

0.871762572 - X = 0.03610141
- X = -0.8356612
X = 0.83566117 m3/S

Para el mes de MARZO:

n= 53
Modelo probabilístico Modelo normal
m Q=x (l/S) P(X<x) = m/n+1 F(Z)
�=  (𝑥 − 
�  ̅)/� ∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|
1 0.40965298 0.0185185185 -2.753 0.00295117 -0.0155673459
2 0.574673 0.037037037 -2.049 0.02021 -0.0168270364
3 0.64419675 0.0555555556 -1.753 0.03980553 -0.0157500238
4 0.75439199 0.0740740741 -1.283 0.09974247 0.0256683984
5 0.79626742 0.0925925926 -1.104 0.13470055 0.0421079551
6 0.8244001 0.1111111111 -0.984 0.16244194 0.0513308303
7 0.83555351 0.1296296296 -0.937 0.17440306 0.0447734295
8 0.84446886 0.1481481481 -0.899 0.18435614 0.0362079895
9 0.84913739 0.1666666667 -0.879 0.18970629 0.0230396231
10 0.85363998 0.1851851852 -0.860 0.19495574 0.0097705556
 11 0.85389376 0.2037037037 -0.859 0.19525422 -0.0084494852
12 0.87033572 0.2222222222 -0.789 0.21517905 -0.0070431695
13 0.87340016 0.2407407407 -0.776 0.21901897 -0.0217217757
14 0.87959223 0.2592592593 -0.749 0.22689705 -0.0323622067
15 0.91360631 0.2777777778 -0.604 0.27290458 -0.0048731959
16 0.94842654 0.2962962963 -0.456 0.32435277 0.0280564787
17 0.95774421 0.3148148148 -0.416 0.33876864 0.023953826
18 0.96447181 0.3333333333 -0.387 0.34932767 0.015994337
19 0.98115978 0.3518518519 -0.316 0.37601245 0.0241606016
20 0.9926432 0.3703703704 -0.267 0.39473477 0.0243643957
21 1.00383644 0.3888888889 -0.219 0.41322142 0.0243325279
22 1.00641192 0.4074074074 -0.208 0.41750403 0.0100966241
23 1.01237098 0.4259259259 -0.183 0.42744981 0.0015238841
24 1.01283073 0.4444444444 -0.181 0.42821914 -0.0162253054
25 1.01465001 0.462962963 -0.173 0.43126613 -0.0316968366
26 1.03622757 0.4814814815 -0.081 0.4676676 -0.0138138863
27 1.04313524 0.5 -0.052 0.47939321 -0.0206067902
28 1.04975118 0.5185185185 -0.023 0.49064051 -0.0278780061
29 1.05754354 0.537037037 0.010 0.50389664 -0.0331403964
30 1.07897373 0.5555555556 0.101 0.54028689 -0.0152686687
31 1.0858375 0.5740740741 0.130 0.55188569 -0.0221883863
32 1.10808992 0.5925925926 0.225 0.58913573 -0.0034568635
33 1.11509115 0.6111111111 0.255 0.60070758 -0.0104035334
34 1.12259692 0.6296296296 0.287 0.61301555 -0.0166140785
35 1.14369357 0.6481481481 0.377 0.64697036 -0.0011777928
36 1.14433453 0.6666666667 0.380 0.64798543 -0.0186812342
37 1.16570251 0.6851851852 0.471 0.6811835 -0.0040016838
38 1.16906177 0.7037037037 0.485 0.68628112 -0.0174225836
39 1.17536552 0.7222222222 0.512 0.69575102 -0.0264712066
40 1.20740024 0.7407407407 0.649 0.74177604 0.0010353003
41 1.22902439 0.7592592593 0.741 0.7706674 0.0114081423
42 1.23064611 0.7777777778 0.748 0.77275858 -0.0050191962
43 1.2417444 0.7962962963 0.795 0.78677787 -0.0095184242
44 1.24539786 0.8148148148 0.811 0.79128016 -0.0235346502
45 1.2615784 0.8333333333 0.880 0.81053593 -0.0227973995
46 1.26957932 0.8518518519 0.914 0.81963969 -0.0322121574
47 1.29705963 0.8703703704 1.031 0.84877236 -0.0215980061
48 1.29954291 0.8888888889 1.042 0.85124139 -0.0376474969
49 1.35107885 0.9074074074 1.262 0.89644409 -0.010963313
50 1.4411647 0.9259259259 1.646 0.95008904 0.0241631188
51 1.47890043 0.9444444444 1.807 0.9645909 0.020146452
52 1.60237968 0.962962963 2.333 0.99018164 0.027218681
53 1.60575693 0.9814814815 2.348 0.99055311 0.0090716297
Promedio (�  ) 1.0552531 ∆máx=
Des.Standar (S) 0.23449442

Según Tabla 5.3. Valores críticos de ∆ o del estadístico Smirnov-Kolmogorrov , para varios valores de N y nivel

Para hidrología α=0.05

 Para N>35 α = 1.36 / (N)^1/2
α= 0.186810367

Entonces α > ∆máx= 0.186810367 > 0.0513308303

Por lo tanto SÍ se ajusta a la distribución normal

F(z<=z)=0.25
F(z>=z)=0.75 Predisposición al 75%

Q F(Z)
0.87959223 0.2268970525
x 0.25
0.91360631 0.2729045819

( 0.9136063088 - x ) + ( 0.0340140805 ) = ( 0.02290458 ) + (

0.9136063088 - X = 0.03489803
- X = -0.8787083
X = 0.87870828 m3/S

Para el mes de ABRIL:

n= 53
Modelo probabilístico Modelo normal
m Q=x (l/S) P(X<x) = m/n+1 �=  (𝑥 −  F(Z)
�  ̅)/� ∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|
1 0.45490329 0.0185185185 -2.137 0.01631484 -0.0022036796
2 0.48480379 0.037037037 -1.982 0.0237659 -0.0132711376
3 0.52924004 0.0555555556 -1.751 0.03996775 -0.0155878014
4 0.56754085 0.0740740741 -1.552 0.06028185 -0.0137922251
5 0.64281511 0.0925925926 -1.162 0.12261789 0.0300252927
6 0.64917944 0.1111111111 -1.129 0.12945093 0.018339817
7 0.66518945 0.1296296296 -1.046 0.14779115 0.0181615216
8 0.68360329 0.1481481481 -0.950 0.17094185 0.0227936995
9 0.6987569 0.1666666667 -0.872 0.19164369 0.0249770207
10 0.69929715 0.1851851852 -0.869 0.19240902 0.0072238378
11 0.71680557 0.2037037037 -0.778 0.21821226 0.0145085515
12 0.72203961 0.2222222222 -0.751 0.22629666 0.0040744387
13 0.72289492 0.2407407407 -0.747 0.22763366 -0.0131070802
14 0.73224107 0.2592592593 -0.698 0.24252971 -0.0167295449
15 0.73340612 0.2777777778 -0.692 0.24442289 -0.0333548879
16 0.74445814 0.2962962963 -0.635 0.26277157 -0.0335247248
17 0.74651348 0.3148148148 -0.624 0.26625995 -0.0485548619
18 0.75460147 0.3333333333 -0.582 0.28021083 -0.0531225048
19 0.75643515 0.3518518519 -0.573 0.28342226 -0.0684295944
20 0.79563156 0.3703703704 -0.369 0.35591059 -0.0144597817
21 0.81412429 0.3888888889 -0.273 0.39223517 0.0033462761
 22 0.8150069 0.4074074074 -0.269 0.39399545 -0.0134119532
23 0.81803923 0.4259259259 -0.253 0.40005949 -0.0258664328
24 0.82829566 0.4444444444 -0.200 0.42074115 -0.0237032936
25 0.83022535 0.462962963 -0.190 0.42465872 -0.0383042401
26 0.84860504 0.4814814815 -0.095 0.46229146 -0.019190019
27 0.85745837 0.5 -0.049 0.48056151 -0.0194384938
28 0.86450503 0.5185185185 -0.012 0.49513438 -0.0233841354
29 0.86879594 0.537037037 0.010 0.50401264 -0.0330243952
30 0.88052193 0.5555555556 0.071 0.52825163 -0.0273039237
31 0.90123948 0.5740740741 0.178 0.57076727 -0.003306805
32 0.91863791 0.5925925926 0.269 0.60586797 0.0132753771
33 0.92200164 0.6111111111 0.286 0.61256539 0.0014542767
34 0.93755179 0.6296296296 0.367 0.6430648 0.0134351703
35 0.95363076 0.6481481481 0.450 0.67366539 0.0255172422
36 0.95703656 0.6666666667 0.468 0.6800081 0.0133414374
37 0.96189682 0.6851851852 0.493 0.68896876 0.0037835713
38 0.96243517 0.7037037037 0.496 0.68995456 -0.0137491443
39 0.98560755 0.7222222222 0.616 0.73102169 0.0087994725
40 0.99257177 0.7407407407 0.652 0.74280784 0.0020670945
41 0.99732441 0.7592592593 0.677 0.75069417 -0.008565094
42 0.99793578 0.7777777778 0.680 0.75169924 -0.0260785423
43 1.0007775 0.7962962963 0.695 0.75634241 -0.0399538832
44 1.00235231 0.8148148148 0.703 0.75889523 -0.0559195868
45 1.08120878 0.8333333333 1.112 0.86687611 0.033542781
46 1.10767674 0.8518518519 1.249 0.89417151 0.0423196545
47 1.1163691 0.8703703704 1.294 0.90218549 0.0318151155
48 1.13574396 0.8888888889 1.395 0.91843081 0.0295419188
49 1.15142091 0.9074074074 1.476 0.93001501 0.0226076011
50 1.15277879 0.9259259259 1.483 0.93095555 0.0050296274
51 1.21723046 0.9444444444 1.817 0.96540877 0.0209643289
52 1.27699719 0.962962963 2.127 0.98329862 0.0203356619
53 1.28704138 0.9814814815 2.179 0.98534543 0.0038639436
Promedio (�  ) 0.86685662 ∆máx=
Des.Standar (S) 0.19280693

Según Tabla 5.3. Valores críticos de ∆ o del estadístico Smirnov-Kolmogorrov , para varios valores de N y nivel

Para hidrología α=0.05

Para N>35 α = 1.36 / (N)^1/2

α= 0.186810367

Entonces α > ∆máx= 0.186810367 > 0.0684295944

Por lo tanto SÍ se ajusta a la distribución normal

F(z<=z)=0.25
F(z>=z)=0.75 Predisposición al 75%
 Q F(Z)
0.73340612 0.2444228899
x 0.25
0.74445814 0.2627715715

( 0.7444581352 - x ) + ( 0.0110520184 ) = ( 0.01277157 ) + (

0.7444581352 - X = 0.02006823
- X = -0.7243899
X = 0.7243899 m3/S

Para el mes de MAYO:

n= 53
Modelo probabilístico Modelo normal
m Q=x (l/S) P(X<x) = m/n+1 �=  (𝑥 −  F(Z)
�  ̅)/� ∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|
1 0.30429176 0.0185185185 -1.995 0.02303385 0.0045153276
2 0.40079466 0.037037037 -1.369 0.08553664 0.0484996078
3 0.40924837 0.0555555556 -1.314 0.09443582 0.0388802627
4 0.42492495 0.0740740741 -1.212 0.11271193 0.0386378515
5 0.43589812 0.0925925926 -1.141 0.12692478 0.034332192
6 0.44353689 0.1111111111 -1.091 0.13752722 0.0264161058
7 0.45743584 0.1296296296 -1.001 0.15833248 0.0287028535
8 0.46682623 0.1481481481 -0.940 0.17350112 0.0253529677
9 0.46785918 0.1666666667 -0.934 0.17522439 0.0085577211
10 0.47378021 0.1851851852 -0.895 0.18531076 0.0001255732
11 0.47423603 0.2037037037 -0.892 0.18610191 -0.0176017944
12 0.47761129 0.2222222222 -0.870 0.19202514 -0.0301970791
13 0.4778171 0.2407407407 -0.869 0.19239002 -0.0483507222
14 0.48141243 0.2592592593 -0.846 0.19883218 -0.0604270778
15 0.48821636 0.2777777778 -0.802 0.21137389 -0.066403885
16 0.49668261 0.2962962963 -0.747 0.22760932 -0.0686869738
17 0.50293358 0.3148148148 -0.706 0.24003394 -0.0747808765
18 0.51336133 0.3333333333 -0.639 0.26155816 -0.0717751781
19 0.52156612 0.3518518519 -0.585 0.27916459 -0.0726872602
20 0.526083 0.3703703704 -0.556 0.28909712 -0.0812732508
21 0.5272868 0.3888888889 -0.548 0.29177204 -0.0971168439
22 0.5351189 0.4074074074 -0.497 0.30945037 -0.0979570392
23 0.55237506 0.4259259259 -0.385 0.34994496 -0.0759809703
24 0.5591363 0.4444444444 -0.342 0.3663225 -0.0781219478
25 0.56614383 0.462962963 -0.296 0.38355709 -0.0794058773
26 0.56627478 0.4814814815 -0.295 0.38388149 -0.0975999898
27 0.58205593 0.5 -0.193 0.42350657 -0.0764934279
28 0.6013542 0.5185185185 -0.068 0.47299473 -0.0455237881
29 0.60463583 0.537037037 -0.046 0.48147335 -0.0555636885
30 0.60672413 0.5555555556 -0.033 0.48687338 -0.0686821762
31 0.62258609 0.5740740741 0.070 0.52789769 -0.0461763819
32 0.62791182 0.5925925926 0.105 0.54162719 -0.0509654005
 33 0.64088017 0.6111111111 0.189 0.57481994 -0.0362911709
34 0.65831814 0.6296296296 0.302 0.61858941 -0.0110402193
35 0.66242637 0.6481481481 0.328 0.62870598 -0.0194421647
36 0.68042906 0.6666666667 0.445 0.6719162 0.0052495338
37 0.68455612 0.6851851852 0.472 0.68153039 -0.0036547944
38 0.693066 0.7037037037 0.527 0.70096771 -0.002735996
39 0.70583891 0.7222222222 0.610 0.72908332 0.0068611003
40 0.72479127 0.7407407407 0.733 0.76821649 0.027475751
41 0.72869916 0.7592592593 0.758 0.77587514 0.0166158769
42 0.73026834 0.7777777778 0.769 0.77890948 0.0011317058
43 0.77787368 0.7962962963 1.077 0.85933329 0.0630369947
44 0.78116193 0.8148148148 1.099 0.86404168 0.0492268669
45 0.78215389 0.8333333333 1.105 0.86544063 0.0321072925
46 0.81171279 0.8518518519 1.297 0.90265711 0.0508052551
47 0.83766236 0.8703703704 1.465 0.92856339 0.0581930173
48 0.83812306 0.8888888889 1.468 0.92897007 0.0400811804
49 0.8554775 0.9074074074 1.581 0.94303133 0.0356239272
50 0.86936756 0.9259259259 1.671 0.95262383 0.0266979066
51 0.89814327 0.9444444444 1.858 0.96838078 0.0239363354
52 0.931013 0.962962963 2.071 0.98080824 0.0178452794
53 0.93717526 0.9814814815 2.111 0.98260137 0.0011198882
Promedio (�  ) 0.61179731 ∆máx=
Des.Standar (S) 0.1541557

Según Tabla 5.3. Valores críticos de ∆ o del estadístico Smirnov-Kolmogorrov , para varios valores de N y nivel

Para hidrología α=0.05

Para N>35 α = 1.36 / (N)^1/2

α= 0.186810367

Entonces α > ∆máx= 0.186810367 > 0.0979570392

Por lo tanto SÍ se ajusta a la distribución normal

F(z<=z)=0.25
F(z>=z)=0.75 Predisposición al 75%

Q F(Z)
0.50293358 0.2400339383
x 0.25
0.51336133 0.2615581552

( 0.5133613313 - x ) + ( 0.0104277555 ) = ( 0.01155816 ) + (

0.5133613313 - X = 0.02265462
- X = -0.4907067
X = 0.49070671 m3/S
Para el mes de JUNIO:

n= 53
Modelo probabilístico Modelo normal
m Q=x (l/S) P(X<x) = m/n+1 �=  (𝑥 −  F(Z)
�  ̅)/� ∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|
1 0.22344212 0.0185185185 -1.771 0.0382498 0.0197312788
2 0.22938933 0.037037037 -1.724 0.04236847 0.005331432
3 0.24271322 0.0555555556 -1.617 0.05290057 -0.0026549818
4 0.24287054 0.0740740741 -1.616 0.05303632 -0.0210377513
5 0.25093385 0.0925925926 -1.552 0.06037179 -0.0322208024
6 0.26238798 0.1111111111 -1.460 0.07212836 -0.0389827554
7 0.27198264 0.1296296296 -1.383 0.08326453 -0.0463651003
8 0.28366063 0.1481481481 -1.290 0.09850532 -0.0496428299
9 0.29103843 0.1666666667 -1.231 0.1091327 -0.0575339655
10 0.3047332 0.1851851852 -1.122 0.13099325 -0.0541919346
11 0.31873619 0.2037037037 -1.010 0.15629565 -0.0474080515
12 0.34832865 0.2222222222 -0.773 0.21967138 -0.0025508431
13 0.34971912 0.2407407407 -0.762 0.22297293 -0.0177678115
14 0.36881896 0.2592592593 -0.610 0.27108006 0.0118208013
15 0.38623584 0.2777777778 -0.470 0.3190496 0.0412718244
16 0.38844553 0.2962962963 -0.453 0.32538284 0.0290865438
17 0.39117258 0.3148148148 -0.431 0.33326878 0.0184539604
18 0.40560057 0.3333333333 -0.316 0.37615318 0.0428198428
19 0.40895346 0.3518518519 -0.289 0.38636561 0.0345137582
20 0.41254454 0.3703703704 -0.260 0.39739135 0.0270209746
21 0.42027185 0.3888888889 -0.198 0.42138552 0.0324966274
22 0.42365524 0.4074074074 -0.171 0.43198963 0.0245822271
23 0.42372118 0.4259259259 -0.171 0.4321968 0.0062708697
24 0.42877715 0.4444444444 -0.130 0.44813372 0.0036892784
25 0.43564108 0.462962963 -0.076 0.46989934 0.0069363747
26 0.43673322 0.4814814815 -0.067 0.47337254 -0.0081089399
27 0.43828292 0.5 -0.054 0.47830425 -0.0216957452
28 0.45643844 0.5185185185 0.091 0.53612845 0.0176099296
29 0.46122885 0.537037037 0.129 0.55130874 0.0142716988
30 0.46472038 0.5555555556 0.157 0.56232715 0.0067715956
31 0.46477945 0.5740740741 0.157 0.56251317 -0.0115609012
32 0.48992659 0.5925925926 0.358 0.6399459 0.0473533058
33 0.49696939 0.6111111111 0.415 0.66078211 0.0496710003
34 0.49754117 0.6296296296 0.419 0.66245338 0.0328237509
35 0.50001259 0.6481481481 0.439 0.66963995 0.021491802
36 0.50286702 0.6666666667 0.462 0.67786292 0.0111962488
37 0.50681528 0.6851851852 0.493 0.68909427 0.003909083
38 0.51708429 0.7037037037 0.575 0.71747346 0.0137697538
39 0.5192324 0.7222222222 0.593 0.72324858 0.0010263579
40 0.52228796 0.7407407407 0.617 0.73136244 -0.0093782986
41 0.52492961 0.7592592593 0.638 0.7382795 -0.0209797545
42 0.5346625 0.7777777778 0.716 0.76295282 -0.0148249603
43 0.53591112 0.7962962963 0.726 0.76602294 -0.0302733524
 44 0.53655491 0.8148148148 0.731 0.76759725 -0.0472175602
45 0.56142242 0.8333333333 0.930 0.82373478 -0.0095985551
46 0.57933155 0.8518518519 1.073 0.85832356 0.0064717118
47 0.57937801 0.8703703704 1.073 0.85840687 -0.0119634964
48 0.58074244 0.8888888889 1.084 0.86083829 -0.0280506018
49 0.61346412 0.9074074074 1.346 0.9107838 0.0033763923
50 0.62695916 0.9259259259 1.453 0.9269501 0.0010241777
51 0.65052569 0.9444444444 1.642 0.94968269 0.0052382492
52 0.73656214 0.962962963 2.329 0.99008021 0.02711725
53 0.74069466 0.9814814815 2.362 0.99092134 0.0094398582
Promedio (�  ) 0.44509117 ∆máx=
Des.Standar (S) 0.12512877

Según Tabla 5.3. Valores críticos de ∆ o del estadístico Smirnov-Kolmogorrov , para varios valores de N y nivel

Para hidrología α=0.05

Para N>35 α = 1.36 / (N)^1/2

α= 0.186810367

Entonces α > ∆máx= 0.186810367 > 0.0575339655

Por lo tanto SÍ se ajusta a la distribución normal

F(z<=z)=0.25
F(z>=z)=0.75 Predisposición al 75%

Q F(Z)
0.34971912 0.2229729293
x 0.25
0.36881896 0.2710800605

( 0.3688189639 - x ) + ( 0.0190998479 ) = ( 0.02108006 ) + (

0.3688189639 - X = 0.05008734
- X = -0.3187316
X = 0.31873162 m3/S

Para el mes de JULIO:

n= 53
Modelo probabilístico Modelo normal
m Q=x (l/S) P(X<x) = m/n+1 �=  (𝑥 −  F(Z)
�  ̅)/� ∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|
1 0.15930225 0.0185185185 -1.684 0.04612499 0.0276064697
2 0.18280025 0.037037037 -1.495 0.06748365 0.0304466082
3 0.20640866 0.0555555556 -1.305 0.09593603 0.0403804738
4 0.22966884 0.0740740741 -1.118 0.13175718 0.0576831058
 5 0.23185328 0.0925925926 -1.101 0.13554251 0.0429499144
6 0.24414727 0.1111111111 -1.002 0.15822909 0.0471179761
7 0.24416676 0.1296296296 -1.002 0.15826692 0.0286372941
8 0.24467145 0.1481481481 -0.998 0.15924878 0.0111006366
9 0.25231242 0.1666666667 -0.936 0.1746003 0.0079336289
10 0.25450653 0.1851851852 -0.919 0.17917667 -0.0060085178
11 0.25940187 0.2037037037 -0.879 0.18965608 -0.0140476235
12 0.26006734 0.2222222222 -0.874 0.1911092 -0.0311130213
13 0.27929254 0.2407407407 -0.719 0.23597597 -0.0047647684
14 0.28026374 0.2592592593 -0.712 0.2383868 -0.0208724585
15 0.28160323 0.2777777778 -0.701 0.24173385 -0.0360439294
16 0.29176572 0.2962962963 -0.619 0.26793775 -0.0283585437
17 0.29928789 0.3148148148 -0.559 0.28821474 -0.0266000794
18 0.30013929 0.3333333333 -0.552 0.29055462 -0.0427787119
19 0.30447181 0.3518518519 -0.517 0.3025971 -0.049254755
20 0.31719911 0.3703703704 -0.415 0.33919594 -0.0311744336
21 0.32117185 0.3888888889 -0.383 0.35095986 -0.0379290335
22 0.32176869 0.4074074074 -0.378 0.35273995 -0.05466746
23 0.32466536 0.4259259259 -0.355 0.36142455 -0.0645013774
24 0.33418383 0.4444444444 -0.278 0.3904465 -0.053997948
25 0.33946828 0.462962963 -0.236 0.40683843 -0.0561245362
26 0.33999672 0.4814814815 -0.231 0.40848714 -0.0729943389
27 0.34259701 0.5 -0.211 0.416623 -0.0833770018
28 0.34469146 0.5185185185 -0.194 0.42320244 -0.0953160805
29 0.36028334 0.537037037 -0.068 0.47273421 -0.0643028228
30 0.36115311 0.5555555556 -0.061 0.47551703 -0.0800385243
31 0.36421287 0.5740740741 -0.037 0.48531523 -0.0887588442
32 0.38341838 0.5925925926 0.118 0.54678139 -0.0458112071
33 0.38676461 0.6111111111 0.144 0.55741819 -0.0536929201
34 0.39365811 0.6296296296 0.200 0.57919261 -0.0504370235
35 0.39448794 0.6481481481 0.206 0.58179887 -0.0663492734
36 0.40695231 0.6666666667 0.307 0.62045329 -0.0462133757
37 0.41769545 0.6851851852 0.393 0.65284474 -0.0323404501
38 0.41869254 0.7037037037 0.401 0.65579933 -0.0479043733
39 0.41930157 0.7222222222 0.406 0.65759939 -0.0646228279
40 0.43361575 0.7407407407 0.521 0.6988029 -0.041937837
41 0.44203129 0.7592592593 0.589 0.72193345 -0.0373258058
42 0.44467827 0.7777777778 0.610 0.7290254 -0.0487523787
43 0.45992767 0.7962962963 0.732 0.76804531 -0.0282509874
44 0.47386637 0.8148148148 0.844 0.8007903 -0.0140245161
45 0.49220439 0.8333333333 0.992 0.83935898 0.0060256508
46 0.50196097 0.8518518519 1.070 0.85774405 0.0058922012
47 0.5087689 0.8703703704 1.125 0.86969547 -0.0006749022
48 0.52302231 0.8888888889 1.240 0.89242069 0.0035318033
49 0.54013065 0.9074074074 1.377 0.91574409 0.0083366854
50 0.59162679 0.9259259259 1.791 0.96334264 0.0374167102
51 0.61388262 0.9444444444 1.970 0.97556548 0.0311210359
52 0.62773545 0.962962963 2.081 0.98128603 0.0183230636
53 0.79413604 0.9814814815 3.418 0.99968504 0.0182035618
Promedio (�  ) 0.36879398 ∆máx=
Des.Standar (S) 0.12442737

Según Tabla 5.3. Valores críticos de ∆ o del estadístico Smirnov-Kolmogorrov , para varios valores de N y nivel

Para hidrología α=0.05

Para N>35 α = 1.36 / (N)^1/2

α= 0.186810367

Entonces α > ∆máx= 0.186810367 > 0.0953160805

Por lo tanto SÍ se ajusta a la distribución normal

F(z<=z)=0.25
F(z>=z)=0.75 Predisposición al 75%

Q F(Z)
0.28160323 0.2417338484
x 0.25
0.29176572 0.2679377526

( 0.2917657231 - x ) + ( 0.0101624969 ) = ( 0.01793775 ) + (

0.2917657231 - X = 0.03397916
- X = -0.2577866
X = 0.25778656 m3/S

Para el mes de AGOSTO:

Modelo probabilístico Modelo normal

m Q=x (l/S) P(X<x) = m/n+1 �=  (𝑥 −  F(Z)
�  ̅)/� ∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|
1 0.05570897 0.0185185185 -2.805 0.00251271 -0.0160058128
2 0.17742578 0.037037037 -1.691 0.04544518 0.0084081472
3 0.21961297 0.0555555556 -1.304 0.09605374 0.0404981842
4 0.23698328 0.0740740741 -1.145 0.12604394 0.051969864
5 0.24120505 0.0925925926 -1.107 0.13422698 0.041634385
6 0.24415847 0.1111111111 -1.080 0.14016405 0.0290529419
7 0.26372863 0.1296296296 -0.900 0.18396452 0.0543348936
8 0.26435163 0.1481481481 -0.895 0.18548606 0.0373379142
9 0.27388681 0.1666666667 -0.807 0.20973795 0.0430712881
10 0.28097404 0.1851851852 -0.742 0.2289146 0.0437294109
11 0.28536529 0.2037037037 -0.702 0.24127376 0.0375700535
12 0.28541477 0.2222222222 -0.702 0.24141507 0.0191928493
13 0.28690432 0.2407407407 -0.688 0.24568966 0.004948918
14 0.2913983 0.2592592593 -0.647 0.25882863 -0.0004306278
15 0.29295141 0.2777777778 -0.633 0.26345255 -0.0143252286
16 0.29768145 0.2962962963 -0.589 0.27778983 -0.0185064655
 17 0.29812967 0.3148148148 -0.585 0.27916795 -0.0356468658
18 0.31007651 0.3333333333 -0.476 0.31707066 -0.0162626766
19 0.31201647 0.3518518519 -0.458 0.32342593 -0.0284259175
20 0.31542234 0.3703703704 -0.427 0.33470821 -0.0356621555
21 0.31822937 0.3888888889 -0.401 0.34412086 -0.0447680307
22 0.31831664 0.4074074074 -0.400 0.3444151 -0.0629923037
23 0.32857672 0.4259259259 -0.306 0.37961905 -0.0463068735
24 0.34277192 0.4444444444 -0.176 0.42995766 -0.0144867833
25 0.34657026 0.462962963 -0.142 0.44365974 -0.0193032275
26 0.35016473 0.4814814815 -0.109 0.45668899 -0.0247924959
27 0.35433166 0.5 -0.071 0.47185086 -0.0281491416
28 0.3551822 0.5185185185 -0.063 0.47495142 -0.0435670992
29 0.36515754 0.537037037 0.029 0.51137837 -0.0256586713
30 0.3690049 0.5555555556 0.064 0.52541904 -0.03013652
31 0.3738397 0.5740740741 0.108 0.54301654 -0.0310575325
32 0.3824787 0.5925925926 0.187 0.57422934 -0.0183632501
33 0.38312372 0.6111111111 0.193 0.5765437 -0.0345674104
34 0.38465146 0.6296296296 0.207 0.58201469 -0.0476149394
35 0.38526764 0.6481481481 0.213 0.58421686 -0.0639312908
36 0.39023579 0.6666666667 0.258 0.60187043 -0.0647962362
37 0.39818529 0.6851851852 0.331 0.62967505 -0.0555101357
38 0.41158929 0.7037037037 0.454 0.67499437 -0.0287093346
39 0.4119308 0.7222222222 0.457 0.67611922 -0.0461030059
40 0.4139435 0.7407407407 0.475 0.68271567 -0.0580250725
41 0.42759115 0.7592592593 0.600 0.72584396 -0.0334153036
42 0.43316637 0.7777777778 0.651 0.74258943 -0.0351883488
43 0.43641823 0.7962962963 0.681 0.75210525 -0.0441910504
44 0.44317162 0.8148148148 0.743 0.77125221 -0.0435626
45 0.45835877 0.8333333333 0.882 0.81112802 -0.0222053114
46 0.49064846 0.8518518519 1.178 0.88055571 0.0287038535
47 0.50106318 0.8703703704 1.273 0.89851708 0.0281467071
48 0.50637772 0.8888888889 1.322 0.90688556 0.0179966706
49 0.51444607 0.9074074074 1.396 0.91859869 0.0111912851
50 0.54153822 0.9259259259 1.644 0.94989299 0.0239670664
51 0.55077691 0.9444444444 1.728 0.95804395 0.0135995087
52 0.57309299 0.962962963 1.933 0.97336928 0.0104063171
53 0.69466806 0.9814814815 3.046 0.99884115 0.0173596649
Promedio (�  ) 0.36204275 ∆máx=
Des.Standar (S) 0.10919432

Según Tabla 5.3. Valores críticos de ∆ o del estadístico Smirnov-Kolmogorrov , para varios valores de N y nivel

Para hidrología α=0.05

Para N>35 α = 1.36 / (N)^1/2

α= 0.186810367

Entonces α > ∆máx= 0.186810367 > 0.0647962362

 Por lo tanto SÍ se ajusta a la distribución normal

F(z<=z)=0.25
F(z>=z)=0.75 Predisposición al 75%

Q F(Z)
0.28690432 0.2456896587
x 0.25
0.2913983 0.2588286315

( 0.2913982987 - x ) + ( 0.0044939778 ) = ( 0.00882863 ) + (

0.2913982987 - X = 0.01747363
- X = -0.2739247
X = 0.27392467 m3/S

Para el mes de SEPTIEMBRE:

Modelo probabilístico Modelo normal

m Q=x (l/S) P(X<x) = m/n+1 �=  (𝑥 −  F(Z)
�  ̅)/� ∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|
1 0.24437604 0.0185185185 -1.756 0.03953405 0.0210155358
2 0.25438954 0.037037037 -1.680 0.04650567 0.0094686327
3 0.26562853 0.0555555556 -1.594 0.05547068 -8.487422203E-05
4 0.26835859 0.0740740741 -1.573 0.05784232 -0.016231754
5 0.27015555 0.0925925926 -1.559 0.05944637 -0.0331462246
6 0.29520351 0.1111111111 -1.368 0.08560309 -0.0255080201
7 0.30092585 0.1296296296 -1.325 0.09263855 -0.036991084
8 0.30164915 0.1481481481 -1.319 0.09355742 -0.0545907311
9 0.34979577 0.1666666667 -0.952 0.17059033 0.0039236645
10 0.35542079 0.1851851852 -0.909 0.18169624 -0.0034889423
11 0.36573158 0.2037037037 -0.830 0.20319727 -0.0005064374
12 0.37016751 0.2222222222 -0.796 0.21289634 -0.0093258808
13 0.37813041 0.2407407407 -0.736 0.23096878 -0.00977196
14 0.38185776 0.2592592593 -0.707 0.23971399 -0.0195452656
15 0.38389961 0.2777777778 -0.692 0.24458017 -0.0331976047
16 0.38831625 0.2962962963 -0.658 0.25528552 -0.0410107713
17 0.38844351 0.3148148148 -0.657 0.25559757 -0.059217243
18 0.4086942 0.3333333333 -0.502 0.30766555 -0.025667786
19 0.42287814 0.3518518519 -0.394 0.34669305 -0.0051588062
20 0.44151354 0.3703703704 -0.252 0.40048649 0.0301161193
21 0.46027589 0.3888888889 -0.109 0.45662361 0.0677347189
22 0.46697408 0.4074074074 -0.058 0.47693772 0.0695303084
23 0.46982873 0.4259259259 -0.036 0.48561661 0.0596906866
24 0.47190619 0.4444444444 -0.020 0.49193715 0.0474927016
25 0.4760666 0.462962963 0.012 0.5045994 0.0416364418
26 0.47889486 0.4814814815 0.033 0.51320539 0.031723904
27 0.48376462 0.5 0.070 0.52800668 0.0280066762
28 0.49068649 0.5185185185 0.123 0.54897396 0.030455439
 29 0.49169005 0.537037037 0.131 0.55200395 0.0149669166
30 0.49543124 0.5555555556 0.159 0.56327146 0.0077159048
31 0.49937981 0.5740740741 0.189 0.57510792 0.0010338462
32 0.50098124 0.5925925926 0.202 0.57988985 -0.0127027408
33 0.50443359 0.6111111111 0.228 0.59015781 -0.020953305
34 0.50838482 0.6296296296 0.258 0.60183367 -0.0277959576
35 0.51460857 0.6481481481 0.306 0.62003754 -0.0281106065
36 0.51838936 0.6666666667 0.334 0.63097032 -0.0356963488
37 0.52739902 0.6851851852 0.403 0.65658554 -0.0285996438
38 0.53311789 0.7037037037 0.447 0.67248789 -0.0312158127
39 0.53680902 0.7222222222 0.475 0.68259024 -0.0396319773
40 0.54754559 0.7407407407 0.557 0.71119098 -0.0295497617
41 0.54850534 0.7592592593 0.564 0.71368748 -0.0455717819
42 0.55790546 0.7777777778 0.636 0.73758131 -0.0401964695
43 0.58261356 0.7962962963 0.824 0.79514758 -0.0011487169
44 0.59238333 0.8148148148 0.899 0.8156604 0.0008455859
45 0.59551376 0.8333333333 0.923 0.82195295 -0.0113803817
46 0.60218939 0.8518518519 0.974 0.83491313 -0.0169387182
47 0.61879831 0.8703703704 1.100 0.86443833 -0.0059320452
48 0.62445914 0.8888888889 1.144 0.87361926 -0.015269633
49 0.64391641 0.9074074074 1.292 0.90184116 -0.0055662425
50 0.65186983 0.9259259259 1.353 0.91193918 -0.0139867493
51 0.73325949 0.9444444444 1.974 0.97579454 0.0313500988
52 0.75372151 0.962962963 2.130 0.98340822 0.0204452615
53 0.83419883 0.9814814815 2.744 0.99696379 0.0154823081
Promedio (�  ) 0.47455543 ∆máx=
Des.Standar (S) 0.13107278

Según Tabla 5.3. Valores críticos de ∆ o del estadístico Smirnov-Kolmogorrov , para varios valores de N y nivel

Para hidrología α=0.05

Para N>35 α = 1.36 / (N)^1/2

α= 0.186810367

Entonces α > ∆máx= 0.186810367 > 0.0695303084

Por lo tanto SÍ se ajusta a la distribución normal

F(z<=z)=0.25
F(z>=z)=0.75 Predisposición al 75%

Q F(Z)
0.37813041 0.2445801731
x 0.25
0.38831625 0.255285525

( 0.3883162546 - x ) + ( 0.0101858436 ) = ( 0.00528552 ) + (

 0.3883162546 - X = 0.00580503
- X = -0.3825112
X = 0.38251122 m3/S

Para el mes de OCTUBRE:

Modelo probabilístico Modelo normal

m Q=x (l/S) P(X<x) = m/n+1 �=  (𝑥 −  F(Z)
�  ̅)/� ∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|

1 0.31847771 0.0185185185 -1.938 0.02631616 0.007797637

2 0.36686135 0.037037037 -1.723 0.04246654 0.005429504
3 0.37323077 0.0555555556 -1.694 0.04509203 -0.010463524
4 0.38452009 0.0740740741 -1.644 0.05006521 -0.0240088629
5 0.40436614 0.0925925926 -1.556 0.05985853 -0.0327340618
6 0.42465865 0.1111111111 -1.466 0.07136265 -0.0397484612
7 0.49886074 0.1296296296 -1.136 0.1280357 -0.0015939296
8 0.52227134 0.1481481481 -1.032 0.1511265 0.0029783512
9 0.53163379 0.1666666667 -0.990 0.16109262 -0.0055740494
10 0.53541724 0.1851851852 -0.973 0.16523901 -0.0199461793
11 0.54130925 0.2037037037 -0.947 0.1718325 -0.0318711997
12 0.55558045 0.2222222222 -0.883 0.18848806 -0.0337341629
13 0.5647594 0.2407407407 -0.843 0.19970904 -0.041031701
14 0.58077442 0.2592592593 -0.771 0.22022341 -0.0390358499
15 0.59692445 0.2777777778 -0.700 0.24208343 -0.0356943439
16 0.63114657 0.2962962963 -0.547 0.29204381 -0.0042524863
17 0.64260383 0.3148148148 -0.496 0.30978107 -0.0050337447
18 0.64284666 0.3333333333 -0.495 0.31016205 -0.0231712872
19 0.66027908 0.3518518519 -0.418 0.3380227 -0.0138291477
20 0.67032683 0.3703703704 -0.373 0.35450679 -0.0158635844
21 0.701217 0.3888888889 -0.236 0.40679147 0.0179025777
22 0.72513871 0.4074074074 -0.129 0.44851199 0.0411045869
23 0.72839427 0.4259259259 -0.115 0.45424494 0.0283190104
24 0.73362101 0.4444444444 -0.092 0.46346852 0.0190240789
25 0.74095566 0.462962963 -0.059 0.47644399 0.0134810284
26 0.7521599 0.4814814815 -0.009 0.49630865 0.0148271712
27 0.76082307 0.5 0.029 0.51167693 0.0116769317
28 0.77948861 0.5185185185 0.112 0.54470063 0.0261821117
29 0.783507 0.537037037 0.130 0.55177768 0.0147406387
30 0.78853952 0.5555555556 0.153 0.56061734 0.0050617807
31 0.8183687 0.5740740741 0.285 0.61225109 0.0381770184
32 0.82056012 0.5925925926 0.295 0.61597888 0.0233862841
33 0.82144819 0.6111111111 0.299 0.61748652 0.0063754091
34 0.82700164 0.6296296296 0.324 0.62687328 -0.0027563483
35 0.83972423 0.6481481481 0.380 0.64808792 -6.022958627E-05
36 0.84444971 0.6666666667 0.401 0.65585565 -0.0108110183
37 0.85732852 0.6851851852 0.458 0.67668656 -0.0084986296
38 0.87059153 0.7037037037 0.517 0.69757425 -0.0061294578
39 0.87969684 0.7222222222 0.558 0.71155379 -0.0106684319
40 0.89717908 0.7407407407 0.636 0.73750642 -0.0032343233
 41 0.90350643 0.7592592593 0.664 0.74659587 -0.0126633881
42 0.91633125 0.7777777778 0.721 0.76449919 -0.0132785905
43 0.91805077 0.7962962963 0.728 0.76684539 -0.0294509014
44 0.96248957 0.8148148148 0.926 0.82280966 0.007994848
45 0.98716059 0.8333333333 1.036 0.84986224 0.0165289053
46 1.00710481 0.8518518519 1.125 0.86960772 0.0177558635
47 1.03215975 0.8703703704 1.236 0.89176386 0.0213934905
48 1.04094615 0.8888888889 1.275 0.8988521 0.0099632132
49 1.06874414 0.9074074074 1.399 0.91904271 0.011635305
50 1.1548336 0.9259259259 1.782 0.96258611 0.0366601852
51 1.15971205 0.9444444444 1.803 0.96432269 0.0198782493
52 1.16345526 0.962962963 1.820 0.9656099 0.0026469357
53 1.24321146 0.9814814815 2.175 0.98516818 0.003686696
Promedio (�  ) 0.75424053 ∆máx=
Des.Standar (S) 0.22486046

Según Tabla 5.3. Valores críticos de ∆ o del estadístico Smirnov-Kolmogorrov , para varios valores de N y nivel

Para hidrología α=0.05

Para N>35 α = 1.36 / (N)^1/2

α= 0.186810367

Entonces α > ∆máx= 0.186810367 > 0.0411045869

Por lo tanto SÍ se ajusta a la distribución normal

F(z<=z)=0.25
F(z>=z)=0.75 Predisposición al 75%

Q F(Z)
0.59692445 0.2420834339
x 0.25
0.63114657 0.29204381

( 0.6311465654 - x ) + ( 0.0342221121 ) = ( 0.04204381 ) + (

0.6311465654 - X = 0.05778207
- X = -0.5733645
X = 0.57336449 m3/S

Para el mes de NOVIEMBRE:

Modelo probabilístico Modelo normal

m Q=x (l/S) P(X<x) = m/n+1 �=  (𝑥 −  F(Z)
�  ̅)/� ∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|

1 0.47176999 0.0185185185 -1.952 0.02546696 0.0069484365

2 0.48530885 0.037037037 -1.888 0.02954073 -0.007496303
 3 0.49873202 0.0555555556 -1.824 0.03409964 -0.0214559106
4 0.53282399 0.0740740741 -1.661 0.04831673 -0.0257573477
5 0.5341306 0.0925925926 -1.655 0.04894415 -0.0436484467
6 0.63063512 0.1111111111 -1.196 0.11589037 0.0047792638
7 0.6697549 0.1296296296 -1.010 0.15635287 0.0267232404
8 0.67239188 0.1481481481 -0.997 0.15938034 0.0112321892
9 0.6772735 0.1666666667 -0.974 0.16508543 -0.0015812349
10 0.68296332 0.1851851852 -0.947 0.17189984 -0.0132853461
11 0.74957963 0.2037037037 -0.630 0.26448861 0.0607849106
12 0.75692902 0.2222222222 -0.595 0.27606131 0.0538390831
13 0.76029263 0.2407407407 -0.579 0.2814395 0.0406987582
14 0.76049468 0.2592592593 -0.578 0.28176416 0.0225049007
15 0.76478486 0.2777777778 -0.557 0.28870018 0.0109224021
16 0.77780021 0.2962962963 -0.495 0.31021942 0.0139231234
17 0.78444562 0.3148148148 -0.464 0.32146929 0.0066544706
18 0.80583453 0.3333333333 -0.362 0.35875984 0.0254265107
19 0.81176111 0.3518518519 -0.334 0.36935463 0.0175027808
20 0.81358624 0.3703703704 -0.325 0.37263789 0.0022675237
21 0.82119713 0.3888888889 -0.289 0.38642674 -0.00246215
22 0.8303126 0.4074074074 -0.245 0.40313076 -0.0042766448
23 0.86699708 0.4259259259 -0.071 0.47184964 0.0459237133
24 0.87807044 0.4444444444 -0.018 0.49285604 0.0484115997
25 0.89625046 0.462962963 0.069 0.52735987 0.0643969105
26 0.89818814 0.4814814815 0.078 0.53102985 0.0495483683
27 0.89828648 0.5 0.078 0.53121605 0.0312160459
28 0.8995354 0.5185185185 0.084 0.53358003 0.0150615097
29 0.90648522 0.537037037 0.117 0.54671095 0.0096739173
30 0.91375946 0.5555555556 0.152 0.56040008 0.0048445269
31 0.91825283 0.5740740741 0.173 0.56882113 -0.0052529458
32 0.92296769 0.5925925926 0.196 0.57762368 -0.0149689132
33 0.93086603 0.6111111111 0.233 0.59228109 -0.0188300254
34 0.93301703 0.6296296296 0.244 0.59625146 -0.0333781745
35 0.93821692 0.6481481481 0.268 0.60580792 -0.042340229
36 0.94778088 0.6666666667 0.314 0.62321561 -0.0434510592
37 0.9531059 0.6851851852 0.339 0.63280288 -0.0523823092
38 0.95648057 0.7037037037 0.355 0.63883654 -0.064867163
39 0.96517236 0.7222222222 0.397 0.65421542 -0.0680068039
40 0.97078186 0.7407407407 0.423 0.66400909 -0.0767316514
41 0.98577621 0.7592592593 0.495 0.6896321 -0.0696271545
42 1.00577454 0.7777777778 0.590 0.7224069 -0.0553708772
43 1.01780847 0.7962962963 0.647 0.74127858 -0.0550177123
44 1.01900178 0.8148148148 0.653 0.7431131 -0.0717017151
45 1.02449218 0.8333333333 0.679 0.7514656 -0.0818677355
46 1.04930669 0.8518518519 0.797 0.78734256 -0.0645092907
47 1.08885152 0.8703703704 0.985 0.83780614 -0.0325642307
48 1.11091892 0.8888888889 1.091 0.86226003 -0.0266288586
49 1.19933317 0.9074074074 1.511 0.93465817 0.0272507603
50 1.23914935 0.9259259259 1.701 0.9555238 0.0295978787
51 1.28699141 0.9444444444 1.929 0.97311559 0.0286711479
52 1.30263899 0.962962963 2.003 0.97742113 0.0144581682
 53 1.52005662 0.9814814815 3.038 0.99880988 0.0173283961
Promedio (�  ) 0.8818324 ∆máx=
Des.Standar (S) 0.21006906

Según Tabla 5.3. Valores críticos de ∆ o del estadístico Smirnov-Kolmogorrov , para varios valores de N y nivel

Para hidrología α=0.05

Para N>35 α = 1.36 / (N)^1/2

α= 0.186810367

Entonces α > ∆máx= 0.186810367 > 0.0818677355

Por lo tanto SÍ se ajusta a la distribución normal

F(z<=z)=0.25
F(z>=z)=0.75 Predisposición al 75%

Q F(Z)
0.68296332 0.1718998391
x 0.25
0.74957963 0.2644886143

( 0.7495796274 - x ) + ( 0.0666163087 ) = ( 0.01448861 ) + (

0.7495796274 - X = 0.04046108
- X = -0.7091185
X = 0.70911855 m3/S

Para el mes de DICIEMBRE:

Modelo probabilístico Modelo normal

�=  (𝑥 − 
m Q=x (l/S) P(X<x) = m/n+1 �  ̅)/� F(Z) ∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|

1 0.57175392 0.0185185185 -1.870 0.03073497 0.0122164547

2 0.51010896 0.037037037 -2.204 0.01374594 -0.023291094
3 0.51569993 0.0555555556 -2.174 0.01484745 -0.0407081087
4 0.64616569 0.0740740741 -1.466 0.07125731 -0.0028167674
5 0.6581221 0.0925925926 -1.402 0.08051148 -0.01208111
6 0.6983262 0.1111111111 -1.184 0.11829115 0.0071800381
7 0.70563085 0.1296296296 -1.144 0.12632173 -0.003307895
8 0.72269477 0.1481481481 -1.051 0.14653801 -0.0016101381
9 0.74161314 0.1666666667 -0.949 0.17136513 0.0046984614
10 0.74453351 0.1851851852 -0.933 0.17542434 -0.0097608455
11 0.78948617 0.2037037037 -0.689 0.24537344 0.0416697337
12 0.79724269 0.2222222222 -0.647 0.25879976 0.0365775355
13 0.79929133 0.2407407407 -0.636 0.26240832 0.021667583
14 0.80238875 0.2592592593 -0.619 0.26791276 0.008653505
 15 0.83038774 0.2777777778 -0.467 0.3201528 0.0423750248
16 0.8430141 0.2962962963 -0.399 0.34502536 0.0487290623
17 0.84414339 0.3148148148 -0.393 0.34728494 0.0324701258
18 0.84962773 0.3333333333 -0.363 0.35833458 0.0250012429
19 0.85027497 0.3518518519 -0.359 0.3596467 0.0077948523
20 0.85423999 0.3703703704 -0.338 0.36772037 -0.0026500013
21 0.85814356 0.3888888889 -0.317 0.37572646 -0.0131624253
22 0.89096068 0.4074074074 -0.139 0.44483402 0.0374266164
23 0.89426986 0.4259259259 -0.121 0.45193451 0.0260085884
24 0.90631296 0.4444444444 -0.055 0.47788855 0.0334441011
25 0.91036794 0.462962963 -0.033 0.48665413 0.0236911635
26 0.91304744 0.4814814815 -0.019 0.49245015 0.0109686651
27 0.91464848 0.5 -0.010 0.49591419 -0.004085813
28 0.91559854 0.5185185185 -0.005 0.49796992 -0.0205485971
29 0.91955559 0.537037037 0.016 0.50653213 -0.0305049064
30 0.94226795 0.5555555556 0.140 0.55549858 -0.000056975
31 0.94696149 0.5740740741 0.165 0.56553738 -0.0085366985
32 0.94889912 0.5925925926 0.176 0.56966977 -0.022922819
33 0.95466318 0.6111111111 0.207 0.58191609 -0.0291950196
34 0.964312 0.6296296296 0.259 0.60223365 -0.0273959818
35 0.96604309 0.6481481481 0.269 0.60585133 -0.0422968153
36 0.97896409 0.6666666667 0.339 0.63254662 -0.0341200422
37 0.98295211 0.6851851852 0.360 0.64066495 -0.0445202356
38 0.9909629 0.7037037037 0.404 0.65677862 -0.0469250874
39 1.01911377 0.7222222222 0.556 0.71102355 -0.0111986739
40 1.02413731 0.7407407407 0.584 0.72026368 -0.0204770637
41 1.0258339 0.7592592593 0.593 0.72335163 -0.0359076323
42 1.04930444 0.7777777778 0.720 0.76427794 -0.0134998409
43 1.0572597 0.7962962963 0.763 0.77735199 -0.0189443086
44 1.07056036 0.8148148148 0.835 0.79826031 -0.0165545029
45 1.08551322 0.8333333333 0.917 0.82030488 -0.0130284529
46 1.11369792 0.8518518519 1.069 0.85755555 0.0057036973
47 1.11430929 0.8703703704 1.073 0.85830101 -0.0120693569
48 1.14805596 0.8888888889 1.256 0.89539833 0.0065094429
49 1.16031625 0.9074074074 1.322 0.906959 -0.0004484045
50 1.20510224 0.9259259259 1.565 0.94122938 0.0153034518
51 1.20854325 0.9444444444 1.584 0.94338513 -0.0010593126
52 1.35144006 0.962962963 2.359 0.99083573 0.0278727666
53 1.36958129 0.9814814815 2.457 0.99300093 0.0115194496
Promedio (�  ) 0.91653671 ∆máx=
Des.Standar (S) 0.18436598

Según Tabla 5.3. Valores críticos de ∆ o del estadístico Smirnov-Kolmogorrov , para varios valores de N y nivel

Para hidrología α=0.05

Para N>35 α = 1.36 / (N)^1/2

α= 0.186810367
 Entonces α > ∆máx= 0.186810367 > 0.0487290623

Por lo tanto SÍ se ajusta a la distribución normal

F(z<=z)=0.25
F(z>=z)=0.75 Predisposición al 75%

Q F(Z)
0.78948617 0.2453734374
x 0.25
0.79724269 0.2587997577

( 0.7972426883 - x ) + ( 0.0077565151 ) = ( 0.00879976 ) + (

0.7972426883 - X = 0.01446956
- X = -0.7827731
X = 0.78277313 m3/S
 Persistencia para uso poblacional = 85%
no impactada que no hay ramales de los que
al y si fuera impactada se debería aforar
tengan caudales representativos Persistencia para uso de regadío = 75%

Persistencia en hidroenergía=95%

Para año más seco la persistencia aumenta y el 0.25 disminuye

∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|
RIEGO + CONSUMO POBLACIONAL + HIDROENERGÍA (será supeiror)
0.0215565527
0.0196602296
0.0132718798
0.0028024539
0.0078148017
0.0021683911
0.0037627136
0.0256039294
0.0166827011
0.0017916051
0.0090358574
0.0241576912
0.0391387058
0.0016606679
0.022632786
0.0044050952
0.0087897547
0.0152710593
0.0220404241
0.0264010554
0.0111556026
0.002724776
0.0125998274
0.0205598745
0.0054537935
0.0444270085
0.0309880138
0.0164507012
0.00046261
0.0100125126
0.0018833935
0.0125150149
0.0192465443
0.0101723406
0.0262381246
0.0338753907
0.041036427
0.0463932584
0.0607511513
0.0626336354
 0.0688924525
0.0786562911
0.078636134
0.0951970494
0.1084663134
0.0931849501
0.047568852
0.009183732
0.0158437801
0.0046089463
0.0026249716
0.0026785019
0.0184918356
0.1084663134

rios valores de N y niveles de significación α

0.0559965564 )

Se tiene que aforar para comprobar caudales y

comparar resultados al menos unos meses

∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|

0.0012000661
 0.0037799324
0.0024610709
0.0001735226
1.41201378538E-05
0.0243185881
0.0084723144
0.0145489861
0.0213853548
0.0217697363
0.0066553443
0.0070509186
0.0084212288
0.012529489
0.0305436828
0.0145998645
0.0284900046
0.0298755551
0.0147274647
0.024988525
0.0331016993
0.0441880652
0.0279569482
0.0115484294
0.0144685998
0.0007032702
0.0043510948
0.0099241141
0.0284382802
0.0448415599
0.0619895832
0.0607555545
0.0780579853
0.0537616138
0.0717574767
0.0796166664
0.0828752599
0.0758520084
0.0807421793
0.0588622326
0.0569381665
0.05422479
0.0286829155
0.0442318008
0.0227179683
0.0088922202
0.0043496512
0.0184960974
0.0079392815
 0.0188256362
0.0049308071
0.0313383575
0.0168595618
0.0828752599

rios valores de N y niveles de significación α

0.0344623368 )

∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|
0.0155673459
0.0168270364
0.0157500238
0.0256683984
0.0421079551
0.0513308303
0.0447734295
0.0362079895
0.0230396231
0.0097705556
 0.0084494852
0.0070431695
0.0217217757
0.0323622067
0.0048731959
0.0280564787
0.023953826
0.015994337
0.0241606016
0.0243643957
0.0243325279
0.0100966241
0.0015238841
0.0162253054
0.0316968366
0.0138138863
0.0206067902
0.0278780061
0.0331403964
0.0152686687
0.0221883863
0.0034568635
0.0104035334
0.0166140785
0.0011777928
0.0186812342
0.0040016838
0.0174225836
0.0264712066
0.0010353003
0.0114081423
0.0050191962
0.0095184242
0.0235346502
0.0227973995
0.0322121574
0.0215980061
0.0376474969
0.010963313
0.0241631188
0.020146452
0.027218681
0.0090716297
0.0513308303

rios valores de N y niveles de significación α

 0.0460075293 )

Agosto: 0.38

∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|
0.0022036796
0.0132711376
0.0155878014
0.0137922251
0.0300252927
0.018339817
0.0181615216
0.0227936995
0.0249770207
0.0072238378
0.0145085515
0.0040744387
0.0131070802
0.0167295449
0.0333548879
0.0335247248
0.0485548619
0.0531225048
0.0684295944
0.0144597817
0.0033462761
 0.0134119532
0.0258664328
0.0237032936
0.0383042401
0.019190019
0.0194384938
0.0233841354
0.0330243952
0.0273039237
0.003306805
0.0132753771
0.0014542767
0.0134351703
0.0255172422
0.0133414374
0.0037835713
0.0137491443
0.0087994725
0.0020670945
0.008565094
0.0260785423
0.0399538832
0.0559195868
0.033542781
0.0423196545
0.0318151155
0.0295419188
0.0226076011
0.0050296274
0.0209643289
0.0203356619
0.0038639436
0.0684295944

rios valores de N y niveles de significación α

 0.0183486815 )

∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|
0.0045153276
0.0484996078
0.0388802627
0.0386378515
0.034332192
0.0264161058
0.0287028535
0.0253529677
0.0085577211
0.0001255732
0.0176017944
0.0301970791
0.0483507222
0.0604270778
0.066403885
0.0686869738
0.0747808765
0.0717751781
0.0726872602
0.0812732508
0.0971168439
0.0979570392
0.0759809703
0.0781219478
0.0794058773
0.0975999898
0.0764934279
0.0455237881
0.0555636885
0.0686821762
0.0461763819
0.0509654005
 0.0362911709
0.0110402193
0.0194421647
0.0052495338
0.0036547944
0.002735996
0.0068611003
0.027475751
0.0166158769
0.0011317058
0.0630369947
0.0492268669
0.0321072925
0.0508052551
0.0581930173
0.0400811804
0.0356239272
0.0266979066
0.0239363354
0.0178452794
0.0011198882
0.0979570392

rios valores de N y niveles de significación α

0.0215242169 )
∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|
0.0197312788
0.005331432
0.0026549818
0.0210377513
0.0322208024
0.0389827554
0.0463651003
0.0496428299
0.0575339655
0.0541919346
0.0474080515
0.0025508431
0.0177678115
0.0118208013
0.0412718244
0.0290865438
0.0184539604
0.0428198428
0.0345137582
0.0270209746
0.0324966274
0.0245822271
0.0062708697
0.0036892784
0.0069363747
0.0081089399
0.0216957452
0.0176099296
0.0142716988
0.0067715956
0.0115609012
0.0473533058
0.0496710003
0.0328237509
0.021491802
0.0111962488
0.003909083
0.0137697538
0.0010263579
0.0093782986
0.0209797545
0.0148249603
0.0302733524
 0.0472175602
0.0095985551
0.0064717118
0.0119634964
0.0280506018
0.0033763923
0.0010241777
0.0052382492
0.02711725
0.0094398582
0.0575339655

rios valores de N y niveles de significación α

0.0481071313 )

∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|
0.0276064697
0.0304466082
0.0403804738
0.0576831058
0.0429499144
0.0471179761
0.0286372941
0.0111006366
0.0079336289
0.0060085178
0.0140476235
0.0311130213
0.0047647684
0.0208724585
0.0360439294
0.0283585437
0.0266000794
0.0427787119
0.049254755
0.0311744336
0.0379290335
0.05466746
0.0645013774
0.053997948
0.0561245362
0.0729943389
0.0833770018
0.0953160805
0.0643028228
0.0800385243
0.0887588442
0.0458112071
0.0536929201
0.0504370235
0.0663492734
0.0462133757
0.0323404501
0.0479043733
0.0646228279
0.041937837
0.0373258058
0.0487523787
0.0282509874
0.0140245161
0.0060256508
0.0058922012
0.0006749022
0.0035318033
0.0083366854
0.0374167102
0.0311210359
0.0183230636
0.0182035618
0.0953160805
rios valores de N y niveles de significación α

0.0262039042 )

∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|
0.0160058128
0.0084081472
0.0404981842
0.051969864
0.041634385
0.0290529419
0.0543348936
0.0373379142
0.0430712881
0.0437294109
0.0375700535
0.0191928493
0.004948918
0.0004306278
0.0143252286
0.0185064655
 0.0356468658
0.0162626766
0.0284259175
0.0356621555
0.0447680307
0.0629923037
0.0463068735
0.0144867833
0.0193032275
0.0247924959
0.0281491416
0.0435670992
0.0256586713
0.03013652
0.0310575325
0.0183632501
0.0345674104
0.0476149394
0.0639312908
0.0647962362
0.0555101357
0.0287093346
0.0461030059
0.0580250725
0.0334153036
0.0351883488
0.0441910504
0.0435626
0.0222053114
0.0287038535
0.0281467071
0.0179966706
0.0111912851
0.0239670664
0.0135995087
0.0104063171
0.0173596649
0.0647962362

rios valores de N y niveles de significación α

 0.0131389728 )

∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|
0.0210155358
0.0094686327
8.48742220307E-05
0.016231754
0.0331462246
0.0255080201
0.036991084
0.0545907311
0.0039236645
0.0034889423
0.0005064374
0.0093258808
0.00977196
0.0195452656
0.0331976047
0.0410107713
0.059217243
0.025667786
0.0051588062
0.0301161193
0.0677347189
0.0695303084
0.0596906866
0.0474927016
0.0416364418
0.031723904
0.0280066762
0.030455439
 0.0149669166
0.0077159048
0.0010338462
0.0127027408
0.020953305
0.0277959576
0.0281106065
0.0356963488
0.0285996438
0.0312158127
0.0396319773
0.0295497617
0.0455717819
0.0401964695
0.0011487169
0.0008455859
0.0113803817
0.0169387182
0.0059320452
0.015269633
0.0055662425
0.0139867493
0.0313500988
0.0204452615
0.0154823081
0.0695303084

rios valores de N y niveles de significación α

0.0107053519 )
 ∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|
0.007797637
0.005429504
0.010463524
0.0240088629
0.0327340618
0.0397484612
0.0015939296
0.0029783512
0.0055740494
0.0199461793
0.0318711997
0.0337341629
0.041031701
0.0390358499
0.0356943439
0.0042524863
0.0050337447
0.0231712872
0.0138291477
0.0158635844
0.0179025777
0.0411045869
0.0283190104
0.0190240789
0.0134810284
0.0148271712
0.0116769317
0.0261821117
0.0147406387
0.0050617807
0.0381770184
0.0233862841
0.0063754091
0.0027563483
6.02295862675E-05
0.0108110183
0.0084986296
0.0061294578
0.0106684319
0.0032343233
 0.0126633881
0.0132785905
0.0294509014
0.007994848
0.0165289053
0.0177558635
0.0213934905
0.0099632132
0.011635305
0.0366601852
0.0198782493
0.0026469357
0.003686696
0.0411045869

rios valores de N y niveles de significación α

0.0499603761 )

∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|
0.0069484365
0.007496303
0.0214559106
0.0257573477
0.0436484467
0.0047792638
0.0267232404
0.0112321892
0.0015812349
0.0132853461
0.0607849106
0.0538390831
0.0406987582
0.0225049007
0.0109224021
0.0139231234
0.0066544706
0.0254265107
0.0175027808
0.0022675237
0.00246215
0.0042766448
0.0459237133
0.0484115997
0.0643969105
0.0495483683
0.0312160459
0.0150615097
0.0096739173
0.0048445269
0.0052529458
0.0149689132
0.0188300254
0.0333781745
0.042340229
0.0434510592
0.0523823092
0.064867163
0.0680068039
0.0767316514
0.0696271545
0.0553708772
0.0550177123
0.0717017151
0.0818677355
0.0645092907
0.0325642307
0.0266288586
0.0272507603
0.0295978787
0.0286711479
0.0144581682
 0.0173283961
0.0818677355

rios valores de N y niveles de significación α

0.0925887752 )

∆ = |�(�)−�(�)|

0.0122164547
0.023291094
0.0407081087
0.0028167674
0.01208111
0.0071800381
0.003307895
0.0016101381
0.0046984614
0.0097608455
0.0416697337
0.0365775355
0.021667583
0.008653505
 0.0423750248
0.0487290623
0.0324701258
0.0250012429
0.0077948523
0.0026500013
0.0131624253
0.0374266164
0.0260085884
0.0334441011
0.0236911635
0.0109686651
0.004085813
0.0205485971
0.0305049064
0.000056975
0.0085366985
0.022922819
0.0291950196
0.0273959818
0.0422968153
0.0341200422
0.0445202356
0.0469250874
0.0111986739
0.0204770637
0.0359076323
0.0134998409
0.0189443086
0.0165545029
0.0130284529
0.0057036973
0.0120693569
0.0065094429
0.0004484045
0.0153034518
0.0010593126
0.0278727666
0.0115194496
0.0487290623

rios valores de N y niveles de significación α

0.0134263203 )
ta y el 0.25 disminuye

ROENERGÍA (será supeiror)