Una empresa efecta una previsin del beneficio que obtendr el prximo ejercicio en base a un modelo y a la informacin

de probabilidad de las variables que intervienen en el modelo.

B=I-G
I=pq
G=CF+CV
CV=cq

El precio se distribuye como una normal de media 100 y desviacin tpica de 20

Los costos fijos son una distribucin uniforme entre 20,000 y 160,000 dlares
El costo unitario se distribuye segn una distribucin triangular de entre 50 y 70, con media en 60
La cantidad vendida es una distribucin logonormal de media 10,000 unidades y desviacin tpica de 1.2

PRECIO 79.1
COSTO FIJOS 98889
COSTO UNITARIO 50
CANTIDAD 19816

COSTO VARIABLE 990800

GASTOS 1089689
INGRESOS 990800
BENEFICIO -98889

0
1 41 81 2 1 6 1 0 1 4 1 8 1 2 1 6 1 0 1 4 1 8 1 2 1 6 1 0 1 4 1 8 1 2 1 6 1 0 1 4 1 8 1 2 1 6 1
1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9
-20000

-40000

-60000

-80000 Colu

-100000
 -40000

-60000

-80000 Colu

-100000

-120000

-140000

-160000

-180000
HISTOGRAMA
 -38439 -33125
-44554
-133346
-62299
base a un modelo y a la informacin histrica que establece las diversas distribuciones -52325
-138336
-104278
-77946
-139073
-78791
-28737
-42223
-81325
dia en 60
in tpica de 1.2 1000 -113758
-43634
-60165
-140638
-79957
-126091
-86935
-70677
-46466
-116914
-114243
-120646
-98488
-118849
-133449
-71117
-63496
-137506
-32694
-20850
-41404
-129598
1 21 61 01 41 81 21 61 -71984
7 7 8 8 8 9 9
-144018
-39218
-126228
-66436
-105802
-49884
-21619
Column K
Column K -123847
-33672
-24783
-109717
-48927
-80643
-119284
-108413
-156645
-101920
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-128244
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-130876
-76977
-125758
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-122465
-66432
-125885
-111262
 -80676
-72595
-54740
-52863
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-34477
-76408
-80091
-63137
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-86289
-69141
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-82261
-39118
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-127242
-22320
-115393
-117331
-115796
-159273
-144817
 -75739
-77645
-102592
-120889
-57381
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-106333
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-88007
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-87807
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-83992
-149695
-69940
-27814
-122249
-47255
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-31514
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-63081
-26704
-137469
-33149
-36104
-76382
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-20546
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-79807
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-44852
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-20914
-123668
-70990
-91447
-89688
-83039
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-72470
-83700
-102267
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-104728
-46631
-27684
-20725
-36763
-104291
-130847
-89725
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-31231
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-145941
-119555
-49673
-24845
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-51903
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-68747
-91790
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-114874
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-66904
-92288
-65257
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-59800
-148703
-104725
-144668
-118907
-73156
-115346
-56176
-148614
-143136
-23332
-100314
-147095
-79232
-45246
-26427
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-108728
-110023
-107999
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-89850
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-28302
-95978
-88909
-67361
-53634
-52145
-112047
-98628
-34927
-66346
-88590
-69312
 -23578
-114923
-146706
-95490
-120676
-149241
-81572
-147168
-63740
-58218
-153650
-61483
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-125561
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-47245
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-22935
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-79432
-97279
-121622
-43388
-119261
-30246
-135821
-54320
-98895
-158376
-80580
-58150
 -40376
-154928
-27755
-33724
-102067
-108733
-91569
-159869
-102945
-95192
-28397
-85321
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-40282
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-117686
-70307
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-78999
-45879
-150158
-26958
-157152
-154236
-54170
 -89963
-52459
-125301
-145277
-107788
-61899
-87031
-117677
-75184
-110405
-122797
-136083
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-28560
-91464
-128492
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-32839
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-116496
-87536
-77032
-141759
-45674
-26960
-43540
-54953
-73637
-108480
-22981
-117882
-32620
 -65433
-88241
-81379
-86207
-152479
-92581
-55066
-145091
-157194
-147935
-104917
-76559
-66290
-101452
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-90180
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-97000
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-120575
-84581
-59695
-93496
-96057
-87316
-83733
-143809
-110736
-83969
-75222
 -40106
-37210
-83919
-141564
-82753
-61828
-58945
-45774
-64810
-25942
-129120
-151132
-44757
-43323
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-112087
-57137
-135636
-147232
-52929
-133915
-93273
-116410
-95735
-89947
-58555
-129617
-122580
-76937
 -33640
-48268
-21348
-147225
-30341
-68693
-151451
-117750
-146485
-88836
-34415
-42671
-147916
-67712
-46351
-57563
-113397
-76297
-97834
-122164
-28994
-85545
-126562
-153796
-73408
-75209
-114729
-38435
-53691
-114594
-93923
-54424
-148937
-141021
-116010
-93370
-88208
-100463
-62038
-153951
-102844
-90621
-95169
 -63722
-157634
-95209
-119646
-134382
-97391
-32239
-146614
-92707
-142733
-43044
-57358
-74098
-139006
-87218
-39255
-145789
-111378
-47434
-64667
-57354
-114068
-105256
-105502
-43626
-141712
-117852
-24370
-113614
-20588
-117743
-150929
-137676
-123302
-69439
-156039
-130953
-30293
-106893
-106131
-66948
-142110
-119846
-119284
-52676
-104992
-27463
-64232
-63692
-105293
-95267
-83785
-141999
-144278
-47828
-121613
-33540
-28316
-148343
-111910
-114635
-60942
-61237
-62268
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-138987
-79988
-27579
-132019
-120724
-47630
-147255
-32084
-125041
-41901
-39604
-23602
-138884
-74794
-85137
-69798
-30756
-100602
-42976
-109213
-157291
-134604
-22413
-46664
-80319
-121321
-21427
-120960
-78369
-47682
-86341
-73343
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-75778
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-64652
-87960
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-128604
-144827
-25513
-131638
-96945
-32617
-30075
-27621
-96797
-125581
-95505
-72539
-105926
-51147
-97115
-56934
-125256
-103499
-55984
-144235
-69855
-70554
-150818
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-30272
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-86527
-80857
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-36655
-75786
-65787
-40021
-93983
-62146
-80628
-35847
-104095
 -32218
-80378
-94881
-137689
-136372
-72007
-131766
-89296
-27244
-130200
-30999
-154185
-119989
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-101616
-101857
-88012
-99431
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-136587
-155384
-31191
-117437
-81689
-72683
-97058
-151215
-153379
-57824
-103761
-26473
-25032
-84679
-59544
-36419
-110546
-92118
-76273
-135592
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-66908
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-105260
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-51514
-38084
-151247
 -33390
-42293
-89617
-88756
-148275
-25014
-127161
-97137
-115544
-63282
-20703
-104838
-97443
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-77574
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-121294
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-88090
-92084
-129227
-34995
-27707
-37610
-141445
-99640
-126131
 -35283
-142700
-43957
-86115
-52548
-148777
-39921
-23092
-24254
-99752
-60371
-63675
-61640
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-41234
-116727
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-86960
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-44951
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-92675
-126651
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-29263
-22676
-142970
-46913
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-61842
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-120203
-48535
-72508
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-24378
-159741
-144647
-21125
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-77992
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-74791
-30756
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-153308
-122946
-63851
-37489
-126518
-77416
-71302
-138988
-76318
-34505
-103639
 -88847
-59882
-24882
-32677
-25634
-120470
-21895
-52440
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-103271
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-39450
-116591
-55809
-31616
-128253
-123984
-159761
 -59663
-107371
-31760
-38580
-61823
-145458
-33339
-68996
-63993
-126871
-100856