MODELO DE PROBALIDAD LINEAL

Dependent Variable: EMPLEADO

Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/20/15 Time: 15:10
Sample: 1 165
Included observations: 165
White heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors & covariance
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

EDAD
C
SEXO=MUJER

-0.015309
1.214662
-0.352422

0.002463
0.085704
0.066837

-6.215722
14.17276
-5.272844

0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.281971
0.273107
0.422651
28.93874
-90.51180
31.80883
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

0.575758
0.495732
1.133476
1.189948
1.156400
2.082457

Los coeficientes estimados individualmente son significativos. Las regresoras explican en un 28% a la
regresada.
El estadstico Durbin Watson Indica que no existe problemas de autocorrelacin debido a su cercana a 2.
Con respecto al valo de (-0.35242) una mujer tiene 35% menos de probabilidad de eestar insertada en el
mercado laboral que un hombre, por lo que lo que el hombre.
Para una mujer, el coeficiente -0.015309, indica la probabilidad que por cada ano de no estar empleada, su
probabilidad de encontrar trabajo el ano siguiente.
TEST DE HETEROCEDASTICIDAD
H0= no existe Heterocedasticidad
H1= si existe Heterocedasticidad
Interpretacin estadstica: La probabilidad de F es 0.1226, la cual es mayor a 0.05 lo cual indica que se
acepta la hiptesis nula de no Heterocedasticidad en el modelo
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
Scaled explained SS

1.845901
7.278460
4.680179

Prob. F(4,160)
Prob. Chi-Square(4)
Prob. Chi-Square(4)

0.1226
0.1219
0.3217

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/20/15 Time: 15:09
Sample: 1 165
Included observations: 165
Collinear test regressors dropped from specification
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
EDAD
EDAD^2

0.046245
0.004341
-9.32E-06

0.098699
0.005260
6.52E-05

0.468543
0.825274
-0.142872

0.6400
0.4104
0.8866

EDAD*(SEXO=0)
SEXO=0

-0.004306
0.126460

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.044112
0.020215
0.201130
6.472516
33.04154
1.845901
0.122620

0.002380
0.084726

-1.809435
1.492573

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

0.175386
0.203194
-0.339897
-0.245778
-0.301691
2.035599

MODELO PROBIT
Dependent Variable: EMPLEADO
Method: ML - Binary Probit (Quadratic hill climbing)
Date: 04/20/15 Time: 15:12
Sample: 1 165
Included observations: 165
Convergence achieved after 3 iterations
Covariance matrix computed using second derivatives
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

z-Statistic

Prob.

EDAD
C
SEXO=MUJER

-0.047168
2.193987
-1.084038

0.008396
0.338178
0.235476

-5.618022
6.487670
-4.603600

0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

McFadden R-squared
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Restr. deviance
LR statistic
Prob(LR statistic)
Obs with Dep=0
Obs with Dep=1

0.229571
0.495732
1.086650
1.143121
1.109573
224.9361
51.63887
0.000000
70
95

Mean dependent var

S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Deviance
Restr. log likelihood
Avg. log likelihood

Total obs

MODELO LOGIT
Dependent Variable: EMPLEADO
Method: ML - Binary Logit (Quadratic hill climbing)
Date: 04/20/15 Time: 15:13
Sample: 1 165
Included observations: 165
Convergence achieved after 4 iterations
Covariance matrix computed using second derivatives

0.0723
0.1375

0.575758
0.415061
27.90859
-86.64860
173.2972
-112.4680
-0.525143

165

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

z-Statistic

Prob.

EDAD
C
SEXO=MUJER

-0.084560
3.883964
-1.888631

0.016267
0.660414
0.416488

-5.198344
5.881107
-4.534657

0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

McFadden R-squared
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Restr. deviance
LR statistic
Prob(LR statistic)

0.235258
0.495732
1.078898
1.135370
1.101822
224.9361
52.91792
0.000000

Obs with Dep=0

Obs with Dep=1

Mean dependent var

S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Deviance
Restr. log likelihood
Avg. log likelihood

70
95

Total obs

60

80

0.575758
0.412366
27.54736
-86.00907
172.0181
-112.4680
-0.521267

165

ESCENARIO 1
.9
.8

EM P L E A D O (S ce n a rio 1 )

.7
.6
.5
.4
.3
.2
.1
.0
0

20

40

100

120

140

160

180

EDAD (Scenario 1)

ESCENARIO 2
QUE POSIBILIDAD TIEN Un VARN DE 20 , ESTAR INSERTADA EN EL
MDO LABORAL
0.8995981
ESCENARIO 3
PROBABILIDAD DE QUE UN HOMBRE Y UNA MUJER ESTEN EMPLEADOS con 20 anos

0.5754534

ESCENARIO 4
PARA UNA MUJER LA PROBABILIDAD DE ESTAR EMPLEADA DE 25 ANOS
1.0

EM P L E A D O (S ce n a rio 4 )

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
-40

-20

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

EDAD (Scenario 4)

ESCENARIO 5

.7

EM P L E A D O (S ce n a rio 5 )

.6
.5
.4
.3
.2
.1
.0
10

20

30

40

50

EDAD (Scenario 5)
COMPARACION DE ESCENARIOS. LOGIT Y LINEAL

60

70

80

.8
.6
.4
EMPLEADO (Scenario 1)
EMPLEADO (Scenario 1)

.2
.0
-.2
-.4
10

20

30

40

50

60

EDAD (Scenario 1)

Efectos
Marginales
del Modelo:
Logit:
empleado
edad sexo c
Prob(emplea
do)=1@logit(@mean(xb))
=

0.592817

Coeficientes

dy/dx

Std.Err

z-Statistic

[Io (95%
Inter. Conf.)
Is]

edad
sexo
c

-0.020411
0.455887
0.481643

0.003927
0.100534
0.130807

-5.198343
4.534656
3.682099

-0.028107
0.258844
0.225267

-0.012716
0.652930
0.738020

PREDICCION DE SENSIBILIDAD
Expectation-Prediction Evaluation for Binary Specification
Equation: EQUBI0
Date: 04/20/15 Time: 16:46
Success cutoff: C = 0.5
Estimated Equation
Dep=0
Dep=1
Total
P(Dep=1)<=C

51

10

61

Constant Probability
Dep=0
Dep=1
Total
0

70

80

P(Dep=1)>C
Total
Correct
% Correct
% Incorrect
Total Gain*
Percent Gain**

19
70
51
72.86
27.14
72.86
72.86

85
95
85
89.47
10.53
-10.53
NA

104
165
136
82.42
17.58
24.85
58.57

Estimated Equation
Dep=0
Dep=1
Total
E(# of Dep=0)
E(# of Dep=1)
Total
Correct
% Correct
% Incorrect
Total Gain*
Percent Gain**
*Change in "%
Correct" from
default
(constant
probability)
specification
**Percent of
incorrect
(default)
prediction
corrected by
equation

41.89
28.11
70.00
41.89
59.85
40.15
17.42
30.26

28.11
66.89
95.00
66.89
70.41
29.59
12.84
30.26

70.00
95.00
165.00
108.79
65.93
34.07
14.78
30.26

70
70
0
0.00
100.00

95
95
95
100.00
0.00

165
165
95
57.58
42.42

Constant Probability
Dep=0
Dep=1
Total
29.70
40.30
70.00
29.70
42.42
57.58

40.30
54.70
95.00
54.70
57.58
42.42

70.00
95.00
165.00
84.39
51.15
48.85