!

8ussla: fresh produce,

consumpuon LralLs, markeL
poLenual
LxpoallmenLarla 2013, Llma, eru
!
8ussla: economlc ouLllne
! Cu reached 1 899 bn uSu ln
2012
! Lconomy slowed down Lo 1,2
yoy growLh
! lnauon LargeLs are seL aL Lhe
level of 3.3-6
! 8ussla has 13 clues lnhablung 1
mln people and more
! WesLern 8ussla concenLraLes 80
of counLry populauon (~114 mln)
! ClLy populauon vs. rural 73/27
! MarkeL ls llmlLed and growLh raLes
are lower Lhan expecLauons
147,7
142,2
141,7
142,2
144
9
13,3
8,8
6,1
7
3,3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
137
142
147
132
137
opulauon Cl
!
lresh frulL lmporL Lo 8ussla, Lhousand Lons
2011 Lo 2012: -1 decllne, L2013 6 140 Lh/L +4
eruvlan lmporLs: 0.4 of LoLal fresh frulL lmporL (ln Lons)
4 733
3 174
4 943
3 436
3 971
3 897
2 463
2 239
2 389
2 872 2 883
3 127
13 809
23 430
24 384
16 734
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
30000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
3 000
6 000
7 000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1P2013
full year frulL lmporL 1P frulL lmporL eru lmporL
!
lresh frulL lmporL Lo 8ussla
! 8ecesslon sLarLed ln 2008 lnuenced Lhe markeL wlLh 1 year lag and led Lo 3
lmporL drop ln Lerms of volume aer 3 years of consLanL growLh. CurrenLly Lhe
pauern of markeL behavlor ls slmllar
! 2013 sLarLed wlLh sllghL opumlsm among lmporLers, we expecL full recovery of
Lhe lmporL volume, buL noL value
! er caplLa consumpuon ~36 kg/year, 73 (42 kg) - lmporLs, 26 - domesuc
produce. lar behlnd Lurope (90 kg) and uSA (113 kg)
! Crganlc growLh - should be noL more Lhan 3-3 yoy (+3 kg p/a)
! 2013: 6 300 - 6 600 Lhousand Lones of lmporLed fresh frulL
! 8ussla ls one of Lhe mosL lmporL-dependenL counLrles ln Lhe fresh frulL secLor
! eru has occupled lLs nlche, buL Lhere's sull space Lo grow
Ceneral Lrends and 3-3 year forecasL
!
lresh frulL per caplLa consumpuon
by orlgln: share of lmporLed frulLs ls sLable aL 70-73 of
LoLal consumpuon
46,8
31,2
32,7
33,3
33,8
36,1
36,4
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
30,0
60,0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 L2013
lmporL consumpuon local consumpuon
!
uaLa per varleLy dlsLrlbuuon
lresh frulL lmporL Lo 8ussla, Lhousand Lons
1 316
1 271
1 491
1 672
1 369
1 077
1 102
1 173
1 137
1 232
392
310
401
423
404
1 032
964
1 064
1 317
1 268
410
367
407
421
380
946
931
899
978
1 044
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
3 000
6 000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
clLrus apples pears bananas grapes oLher
!
Consumer preferences
! Are noL changlng slgnlcanLly over lasL 3
years
! 8ecesslon lncreased Lhe share of
convenuonal frulL - clLrus, bananas,
apples
! Cnly apples and pears may be parually
replaced by domesucally grown varleues
! Lxouc frulLs refer Lo hlgher culLure of
consumpuon and Lrade, buL lnLeresL ls
lncreaslng
! Consumer are noL ready for ready Lo
eaL" condluon of Lhe frulL. Shelf llfe ls
more lmporLanL
! SP produce has lLs wlndow" when local
frulL ls unavallable
clLrus,
27
apples,
22
pears,
7
banana,
20
grapes,
7
oLher,
17
!
8eLall Lrends
!
8eLallers ln 8ussla
! Pave doubled Lhe amounL of modern sLores wlLhln lasL 3 years. LxLenslve growLh wlLh Lhe
dlscounLer formaL
! Modern reLall Lakes up Lo 32 of all food reLall formaLs ln 8ussla. 8y 2020 Lhls share should
lncrease up Lo 60-63
! Modern reLall Lurnover ln 2012 reached $74 bn. 1hls ls ~23 of food reLall Lurnover
! CrowLh poLenual ls locaLed ln reglons, concenLrauon of reLallers would conunue Lo lncrease. Less
organlc growLh, more M&A's
! ?oy revenue growLh raLe - 99, 3 years growLh forecasL: 16 p.a.
! Lack of aordable and quallLy real esLaLe for developmenL ln blg clues
! Launchlng own lmporL programs, conLracung volume of Lhe frulL and veg, no sulLable
lnfrasLrucLure for smooLh lmporL operauons
! ulcLaLe prlces Lo lmporLers on Lhe basls of shelf prlce"
!
SLrucLure of eruvlan lmporL Lo 8ussla
! eruvlan Lable grapes have klcked
ouL uS grapes
! ClLrus compeLes wlLh Argenuna,
Afrlca and uruguay
! omegranaLes face sLrong
compeuuon from LgypL
! key advanLages: sLable quallLy and
relauvely low cosLs
! 1hreaLs: lncreased expecLauons
from 8usslan markeL
! Alm: organlc growLh of all exporL
sLrucLure
4,8
63,6
3,9
7,1
3,2
13,4
avocado grapes oLher
pomegranaLes mango clLrus
!
1able grapes lmporL Lo 8ussla
! 1oLal lmporL volume ln 2012 -
380 Lhousand Lons
! Cood seasonallLy of eruvlan
goods: november-lebruary
! oLenual Lo Lake up Lo 8 of
8usslan markeL
! romouonal acuvlues mlghL be
requlred Lo auracL more
cusLomers
! MarglnallLy would decrease - cosL
managemenL requlremenLs
1urkey,
38,6
uzbeklsLan,
12,4
#$%&'( )(*+
lLaly, 7,7
,'-.( *(/+
Moldova,
3,0
Chlna, 3,0
Argenuna,
2,9
oLhers,
19,3
!
Markeung
lnvesung ln cusLomer educauon
!
Markeung
!
Markeung