Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
)
AO
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
II
108.0
112.0
109.0
110.0
108.0
106
III
128.0
132.0
134.0
131.0
135.0
129
94.0
88.0
84.0
90.0
89.0
93
Trimestre
Inversin Bruta
Total
Mvil
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
1991
108
II
128
III
94
IV
70
112
II
132
III
88
IV
68
109
II
134
III
84
IV
73
110
II
131
III
90
IV
69
108
400
404
408
1992
402
400
397
399
1993
395
400
401
398
1994
404
400
398
402
1995
401
II
135
III
89
IV
68
400
Trimestre I
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Total
Media
Trimestre II
110.6
109.8
109.7
107.6
219.5
109.7746817
131.7
134.84
130.3
134.83
266.5
133.2511418
Trimestre III
93.5
88.3
83.9
90.2
178.6
89.27840303
Indice
Desajustado
109.7746817
133.2511418
89.27840303
68.65361289
400.9578394
Constante de
Ajuste
0.997611122
0.997611122
0.997611122
0.997611122
Indice
Estacional
109.5124433
132.9328211
89.06512781
68.48960778
400
Trimestre
Inversin Bruta
Indice
Estacional
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
1991
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
108.0
128.0
94.0
70.0
112.0
132.0
88.0
68.0
109.0
134.0
84.0
73.0
110.0
1992
1993
1994
109.5
132.9
89.1
68.5
109.5
132.9
89.1
68.5
109.5
132.9
89.1
68.5
109.5
1995
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
131.0
90.0
69.0
108.0
135.0
89.0
68.0
132.9
89.1
68.5
109.5
132.9
89.1
68.5
Trimestre
(1)
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Tiempo
(2)
Inversin Bruta
Desestacionalizada
(3)
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
98.6
96.3
105.5
102.2
102.3
99.3
98.8
99.3
99.5
100.8
94.3
106.6
100.4
98.5
101.0
100.7
98.6
101.6
99.9
99.3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
(4)
(2)
Inversin
Bruta
(3)
Inversin
Bruta
Estimada
(4)
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
108.0
128.0
94.0
70.0
112.0
132.0
88.0
100.3
100.3
100.3
100.3
100.2
100.2
100.2
Ao
Trimestre
(1)
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
68.0
109.0
134.0
84.0
73.0
110.0
131.0
90.0
69.0
108.0
135.0
89.0
68.0
100.2
100.2
100.2
100.2
100.2
100.2
100.1
100.1
100.1
100.1
100.1
100.1
100.1
Inversin
Bruta
(3)
Inversin Bruta
Estimada
(tendencia)
(4)
Trimestre
(1)
(2)
1991
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
108.0
128.0
94.0
70.0
112.0
132.0
88.0
68.0
109.0
134.0
84.0
73.0
110.0
131.0
90.0
69.0
108.0
135.0
89.0
68.0
100.3
100.3
100.3
100.3
100.2
100.2
100.2
100.2
100.2
100.2
100.2
100.2
100.2
100.1
100.1
100.1
100.1
100.1
100.1
100.1
100.1
100.1
100.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Centrado de 4 trimestres
Promedio
Mvil
Promedio
Mvil
Centrado
(6)
(5)
Porcentaje
(7)=(3)/(6)*100
100
100.5
93.5
101.5
69.0
101.25
110.6
100.25
131.7
99.625
88.3
99.5
68.3
99.25
109.8
99.375
134.8
100.125
83.9
99.875
73.1
100.25
109.7
100.5
130.3
99.75
90.2
100
69.0
100.375
107.6
101
102
100.5
100
99.25
99.75
98.75
100
100.25
99.5
101
100
99.5
100.5
100.25
100.125
134.8
100
Trimestre IV
68.97
68.3
73.1
69.00
137.3
68.65361289
0.99761112
tacionalizadas
Promedio
Mvil
(5)
(6)
98.6
96.3
105.5
102.2
102.3
99.3
98.8
99.3
99.5
100.8
94.3
106.6
100.4
100.5
101.5
101.3
100.3
99.6
99.5
99.3
99.4
100.1
99.9
100.3
160.0
140.0
120.0
Ventas
Inversin Bruta
Desestacionalizada
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
98.5
101.0
100.7
98.6
101.6
99.9
99.3
0.0
100.5
99.8
100.0
100.4
100.1
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin
0.02309899mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin
0.00053356 R^2
R^2 ajustado -0.05499235
Error tpico
2.82303168
Observaciones
20
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Regresin
1
Residuos
18
Total
19
Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Desviaciaones
Respecto de su
Tendencia
(5)
40
30
20
10
Ventas
8
28
-6
-30
12
32
-12
Coeficientes
100.298611
-0.01073125
Ventas
-32
9
34
-16
-27
10
31
-10
-31
8
35
-11
-32
(5)
109.8
133.3
89.3
68.7
109.8
133.2
89.3
68.6
109.7
133.2
89.2
68.6
109.7
133.1
89.2
68.6
109.6
133.1
89.1
68.5
109.6
133.0
89.1
68.5
109.5
133.0
89.1
68.5
-10
-20
-30
-40
Indice
de
Estacionalidad
(6)
109.5
132.9
89.1
68.5
109.5
132.9
89.1
68.5
109.5
132.9
89.1
68.5
109.5
132.9
89.1
68.5
109.5
132.9
89.1
68.5
109.5
132.9
89.1
68.5
109.5
132.9
89.1
68.5
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
Ventas
Inversin Bruta
Proyecta
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
Promedio Mvil
Centrado de 4
Trimestres con dos
componentes:
Ciclo y Tendencia,
Grfico N 01
Inversin Bruta Interna Nominal
(Millones de S/.)
Aos
Inversin Bruta
Promedio Mvil
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Valor crtico de F
0.07658115 0.07658115 0.00960927 0.92299429
143.451142 7.96950788
143.527723
Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%
1.31138702 76.4828459 4.4685E-24 97.5434894 103.053733 97.5434894 103.053733
0.10947247 -0.09802688 0.92299429 -0.24072438 0.21926189 -0.24072438 0.21926189
Grfico N 04
Componente Cclico de la Inversin Bruta Nominal
Aos
Desviaciones
GRAFICO N 05
Inversin Bruta Nominal y su Pronstico
Aos
Inversin Bruta estimada
Inversin Bruta
Grafico N 02
Inversin Bruta Nominal e Inversin Bruta Nominal Desestacionalizadas
160.0
140.0
Ventas
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
0.0
Aos
Ventas
Ventas desestacionalizadas
Ventas
Grfico N 03
Inversin Bruta Nominal Desestacionalizada y su Tendencia
108.0
106.0
104.0
102.0
100.0
98.0
96.0
94.0
92.0
90.0
88.0
Superior 95.0%
Aos
Inversin Bruta
Tendencia
Ventas desestacionalizadas
tacionalizada y su Tendencia
Tendencia
I
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
II
9,135.0
9,616.4
9,357.8
13,664.2
16,793.2
III
11,366.2
10,897.5
13,986.6
15,987.8
18,978.5
IV
8,868.6
10,276.8
10,306.6
13,518.4
19,409.6
9,970.4
11,913.8
13,158.0
17,409.6
21,778.8