Sep 182012 46180912

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Commodity Outlook
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PRECIOUS METALS
PRECIOUS METALS MARKET WATCH Precious Metals MCX Gold Rs. COMEX Gold $ MCX Silver Rs. COMEX Silver $ Contract OCT2 DEC2 SEP2 Open 31879 1774.3 64314 34.56 High 31889 1775.9 64368 34.65 Low 31829 1753.5 64185 33.73 Close 31880 1756.15 64284 34.07 Change 11 -18.1 -523 -0.5 % Chg 0.03 -1.02 -0.81 -1.44
MARKET ROUNDUP
Precious metals prices fell yesterday, outperforming tumbling crude oil and grain markets as economic uncertainty related to last week's monetary stimulus unleashed by U.S. Federal Reserve boosted the metal's safehaven appeal.
LONDON FIXING A.M. FIXING Gold Silver Fix AM US $ INDEX Close US $ INDEX 78.424 ETF HOLDINGS as on previous close ETF SPDR Holding iShares Holding in tonnes 1301.48 9841.22 FOREX MARKET WATCH Currency USD/INR USD/JPY EUR/USD Open 54.02 78.38 1.313 High 54.02 78.97 1.3174 Low 54.02 78.17 1.3084 Close 53.89 77.5 1.299 Change 0.13 1.23 0.0128 % Chg 0.24 1.59 0.99 Change 72.33 % Change 0.415 1767.25 34.53 P.M. FIXING 1770
IN FOCUS
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange traded fund, stood at 1301.48 tonnes by Sep 17, remains unchanged from the previous business day. Holdings in the world's largest silver backed exchange-traded fund iShares Silver Trust stood at 9841.22 tonnes by Sep 17, up by 72.33 tonnes from the previous business day. Detailing the heavy financial toll of unrest in South Africa's crucial mining sector, President Jacob Zuma said Monday that strikes have cost close to 4.5 billion rand (nearly $563 million) in lost gold and platinum production this year. Gold demand in India, the world's biggest consumer, was subdued on Monday as buyers waited for the rupee to stabilise before making purchases for the festive season.
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK
Precious metals prices are trading lower on COMEX today. We do not expect any major fall in the prices of precious metals on account of the fresh round of Quantitative easing announced by the US.
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Commodity Outlook |
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Commodity Outlook
BASE METALS
BASE METALS MARKET WATCH Base Metals MCX Copper Rs. LME Copper $ MCX Zinc Rs. LME Zinc $ MCX Nickel Rs. LME Nickel $ MCX Lead Rs. LME Lead $ MCX Aluminium LME Aluminium Contract NOV2 3M SEP2 3M SEP2 3M SEP2 3M SEP2 3M Open 456 8392 112.05 2108 956 17575 120.6 2256 116.6 2164 High 456 8402 112.1 2116 979 17775 121.3 2265 116.6 2200 Low 451.9 8380 110.8 2103 950.3 17555 119.6 2254 115.3 2164 Close 453.15 8380 111.35 2116 975.5 17775 121 2265 115.55 2200 INDICES Index Baltic Dry Index CRB Index DJ Commodity Index Close 663 Change 1 LME WAREHOUSE STOCK Metals Copper Zinc Nickel Lead Alum Prev. 217175 924200 120876 293200 5008975 Net -475 -3050 -726 -2300 8750 Total 216700 921150 120150 290900 5017725 Metals Copper Zinc Nickel Lead Alum LME WARRANTS L/W* 170950 802100 107658 184050 3446100 C/W* 45750 119050 12492 106850 1571625 Change 6275 -3050 -726 -2300 -9825 Change -3.55 305 -0.95 80 17.6 1025 0.1 107.5 -1.4 98 % Chg -0.78 3.78 -0.85 3.93 1.84 6.12 0.08 4.98 -1.20 4.66
MARKET ROUNDUP
Industrial metals prices fell yesterday on weak manufacturing data from the U.S. and as some investors moved to cash in gains made on last week's rally.
IN FOCUS
Fourth-quarter aluminium premiums to Japanese buyers, Asia's biggest importers of the metal, rose 24 percent from the previous quarter to a record high of $254$255 a tonne as supplies remain tight, traders said on Tuesday. Bloomberg reported that Chinese zinc smelters are cutting the most production in at least 9 years after prices tumbled into a bear market, diminishing a glut that began in 2007. Chinese banks and companies looking to seize steel pledged as collateral by firms that have defaulted on loans are making an uncomfortable discovery: the metal was never in the warehouses in the first place. Australia, the world's biggest exporter of iron ore, cut its revenue forecasts for the key steel making ingredient by a fifth on Tuesday, a fresh sign the country's mining industry is losing steam as a slowdown in top customer China drives down prices.
SHANGHAI MARKET WATCH Metals Aluminim Copper Zinc Close 15610 60200 15475 Change -20 -190 -30 % Chg -0.13 -0.31 -0.19
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK
Industrial metals prices are trading lower on international bourses. We expect a further profit taking in the prices of industrial metals on account of weak manufacturing numbers from across the globe.
Andrew "Twiggy" Forrest bet $15 billion of mostly borrowed money on a China steelmaking boom, defying doubters to build mines, a railway and a port to create the world's no.4 iron ore miner under the noses of giants Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton.
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Commodity Outlook |
Commodity Outlook
ENERGY
ENERGY MARKET WATCH Energy MCX Crude NYM Crude MCX Natgas NYM Natgas Contract SEP2 OCT2 SEP2 OCT2 INDICES Index Clean Tanker Index Dirty Tanker Index Close 593 635 Change 1 1 Open 5338 99.15 159.1 2.929 High 5354 99.52 161.3 2.983 Low 5121 94.65 154.3 2.856 Close 5274 96.62 155.4 2.865 Change -60 -1.69 -4.2 -0.172 % Chg -1.12 -1.72 -2.63 -5.66
MARKET ROUNDUP
Crude oil prices fell more than 2 percent yesterday, plunging late in the open outcry floor session on the New York Mercantile Exchange, retreating after last week's surge triggered by the U.S. Federal Reserve's launch of a stimulus program.
EXCHANGE VOLUME on previous close Exchange MCX NCDEX Volume (in crores) 53717.61 5703.20
IN FOCUS
Iraq's oil exports from its southern ports have slipped by 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) so far in September versus last month, according to shipping data, but signs of
ENERGY INDICATORS Date 19Sep 19Sep 19Sep 19Sep 19Sep 19Sep Time 8.00pm 8.00pm 8.00pm 8.00pm 8.00pm 8.00pm Energy Data Crude Stock Gasoline Stock Distillate Stock Refinery Utilisation Stocks at Cushing Oklahama Natural Gas Inventory Country U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. Prior 1.994 -1.177 1.476 -1.4 -0.828 27 Consensus 0.233 1.633 0.767 Actual
higher northern shipments could keep supplies close to a post-war record. Brazilian oil company HRT Participacoes em Petroleo will define its plans to sell natural gas from a large, isolated Amazon field by the end of 2012, meeting a promise to investors, the company's chief executive said Monday.
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK
Crude oil prices are trading lower on NYMEX today. We expect a further fall in the prices of crude oil on account of low demand from major consumers at prevailing crude oil prices.
Asian oil markets should easily absorb the half million barrels per day they would get via Enbridge Inc's proposed Northern Gateway pipeline in Canada, raising little ire among traditional Middle East suppliers, an energy market expert said on Monday.
Asia's oil refineries are readying to cash in on a diesel supply crunch that will keep prices high in the next few years as big regional consumers such as Australia step up imports, while refineries in Europe and Japan are closing down.
U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely rose last week, after two straight weeks of drawdowns, due to restart of Gulf Coast refinery activity after the passage of Hurricane Isaac, a preliminary Reuters poll of analysts showed on Monday.
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Commodity Outlook |
Commodity Outlook
RESEARCH TEAM Name Kunal Shah Devidas Rajadhikary Vikash Bairoliya Harshal Mehta Sunit Mehta Somya Dixit Ravi Dsouza Ankita Parekh Designation Research Head - Commodities Technical Analyst Research Analyst (Precious Metals & Currencies) Technical Analyst Research Analyst (Base Metals) Research Associate Research Associate Research Analyst E-mail kunal.shah@nirmalbang.com devidas.rajadhikary@nirmalbang.com vikash.bairoliya@nirmalbang.com harshal.mehta@nirmalbang.com sunit.mehta@nirmalbang.com somya.dixit@nirmalbang.com ravi.dsouza@nirmalbang.com ankita.parekh@nirmalbang.com
Disclaimer: This Document has been prepared by N.B. Commodity Research (A Division of Nirmal Bang Commodities Pvt Ltd).The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on N.B. Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents N.B. Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. N.B. Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way be responsible for the contents stated herein. N.B. Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. N.B. Commodities Research, its affiliates and their employees may from time to time hold positions in securities referred to herein. N.B. Commodities Research or its affiliates may from time to time solicit from or perform investment banking or other services for any company mentioned in this document.
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