INGRESO POR VENTAS

REGRESIN MCO ARMA (1,1)

Dependent Variable: ING
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/25/16 Time: 16:22
Sample (adjusted): 2007 2014
Included observations: 8 after adjustments
Convergence achieved after 12 iterations
MA Backcast: 2006
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
AR(1)
MA(1)

5153230.
-0.525056
-0.948231

85598.24
0.317544
0.039245

60.20252
-1.653491
-24.16162

0.0000
0.1591
0.0000

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.810498
0.734697
887830.8
3.94E+12
-119.0438
10.69248
0.015633

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

4878115.
1723691.
30.51095
30.54074
30.31002
1.480368

PROYECCIN ESTIMADA
10,000,000
9,000,000
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
2015

2016

2017
INGF

2018
2 S.E.

2019

2020

RESULTADOS DE LA PROYECCIN

Last updated: 02/25/16 - 16:22

Modified: 2015 2020 // forecast(f=actual) ingf
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

2857424.
2318885.
6753799.
4370844.
7433262.
3055666.
5399724.
5263757.
4428988.
6169548.
4619607.
5433412.
5006119.
5230471.
5112674.

GRAFICO DE LA PROYECCIN

INGF
8,000,000

7,000,000

6,000,000

5,000,000

4,000,000

3,000,000

2,000,000
06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

COSTO DE SERVICIO
REGRESIN MCO ARMA (1,1)
Dependent Variable: COSTO
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/25/16 Time: 16:16
Sample (adjusted): 2007 2014
Included observations: 8 after adjustments
Failure to improve SSR after 11 iterations
MA Backcast: 2006
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
AR(1)
MA(1)

4212016.
0.165701
-0.999813

193639.2
0.621954
0.398454

21.75188
0.266419
-2.509230

0.0000
0.8006
0.0539

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.416978
0.183769
1371981.
9.41E+12
-122.5256
1.788004
0.259545

Inverted AR Roots
Inverted MA Roots

.17
1.00

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

4211949.
1518594.
31.38141
31.41120
31.18048
1.590318

PROYECCIN ESTIMADA
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
2015

2016

2017
COSTOF

2018
2 S.E.

2019

2020

RESULTADOS DE LA PROYECCIN

Last updated: 02/25/16 - 16:18

Modified: 2015 2020 // forecast(f=actual) costof
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

2405273.
2071453.
6110745.
4019029.
6450088.
2751315.
4782325.
3884678.
3625960.
4115379.
4196003.
4209362.
4211576.
4211943.
4212004.

GRAFICO DE LA PROYECCIN

COSTOF
7,000,000

6,000,000

5,000,000

4,000,000

3,000,000

2,000,000
06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

GASTOS DE ADMINISTRACIN
REGRESIN MCO ARMA (1,1)
Dependent Variable: GA
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/25/16 Time: 16:19
Sample (adjusted): 2007 2014
Included observations: 8 after adjustments
Convergence achieved after 427 iterations
MA Backcast: OFF (Roots of MA process too large)
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
AR(1)
MA(1)

643465.6
1.066137
-5.263330

2175494.
0.472782
2.790435

0.295779
2.255027
-1.886204

0.7793
0.0738
0.1179

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
Inverted AR Roots
Inverted MA Roots

0.945692
0.923969
98533.99
4.85E+10
-101.4567
43.53400
0.000687

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

614781.9
357348.0
26.11419
26.14398
25.91326
2.756314

1.07
Estimated AR process is nonstationary
5.26
Estimated MA process is noninvertible

PROYECCIN ESTIMADA
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
-1,000,000
-2,000,000
-3,000,000
2015

2016

2017
GAF

2018
2 S.E.

2019

2020

RESULTADOS DE LA PROYECCIN

Last updated: 02/25/16 - 16:20

Modified: 2015 2020 // forecast(f=actual) gaf
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

332432.5
276481.5
433522.2
366784.7
844417.3
380239.1
460905.9
1327556.
828348.2
912136.9
929905.9
948850.1
969047.2
990580.1
1013537.

GRAFICO DE LA PROYECCIN

GAF
1,400,000

1,200,000

1,000,000

800,000

600,000

400,000

200,000
06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

GASTOS FINANCIEROS
REGRESIN MCO ARMA (1,1)
Dependent Variable: GF
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/25/16 Time: 16:20
Sample (adjusted): 2007 2014
Included observations: 8 after adjustments
Convergence achieved after 44 iterations
MA Backcast: 2006
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
AR(1)
MA(1)

10940.06
-0.617785
0.999793

3497.754
0.193113
0.385677

3.127739
-3.199093
2.592305

0.0260
0.0240
0.0487

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.549502
0.369303
8212.290
3.37E+08
-81.57859
3.049419
0.136217

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

11318.41
10340.80
21.14465
21.17444
20.94372
1.701197

PROYECCIN ESTIMADA

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

-10,000

-20,000
2015

2016

2017
GFF

2018
2 S.E.

2019

2020

RESULTADOS DE LA PROYECCIN

Last updated: 02/25/16 - 16:21

Modified: 2015 2020 // forecast(f=actual) gff
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

11941.69
6412.390
35179.49
2244.250
14756.28
5008.570
10424.52
9165.070
7356.710
13150.39
9574.552
11783.65
10418.90
11262.02
10741.16

GRAFICO DE LA PROYECCIN

GFF
36,000
32,000
28,000
24,000
20,000
16,000
12,000
8,000
4,000
0
06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

OTROS GASTOS
REGRESIN MCO ARMA (1,1)
Dependent Variable: OG
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/25/16 Time: 16:25
Sample (adjusted): 2007 2014
Included observations: 8 after adjustments
Convergence achieved after 224 iterations
MA Backcast: OFF (Roots of MA process too large)
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
AR(1)
MA(1)

19028.12
0.319076
-4.731461

10368.88
0.552844
2.894604

1.835118
0.577153
-1.634580

0.1259
0.5888
0.1631

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.951030
0.931443
8048.988
3.24E+08
-81.41791
48.55210
0.000531

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

17310.59
30740.72
21.10448
21.13427
20.90355
2.504956

PROYECCIN ESTIMADA

120,000

80,000

40,000

-40,000

-80,000
2015

2016

2017
OGF

2018
2 S.E.

2019

2020

RESULTADOS DE LA PROYECCIN

Last updated: 02/25/16 - 16:25

Modified: 2015 2020 // forecast(f=actual) ogf
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

538.1300
5218.640
59385.89
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
73880.15
0.000000
0.000000
16786.22
18312.78
18799.87
18955.29
19004.88
19020.70

GRAFICO DE LA PROYECCIN

OGF
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

OTROS INGRESOS
REGRESIN MCO ARMA (1,1)
Dependent Variable: OF
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/25/16 Time: 16:23
Sample (adjusted): 2007 2014
Included observations: 8 after adjustments
Failure to improve SSR after 16 iterations
MA Backcast: 2006
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
AR(1)
MA(1)

50188.78
-0.456607
-0.999190

4507.149
0.450273
0.712732

11.13537
-1.014067
-1.401916

0.0001
0.3571
0.2199

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.703542
0.584959
32274.55
5.21E+09
-92.52777
5.932899
0.047853

Inverted AR Roots
Inverted MA Roots

-.46
1.00

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

50198.81
50097.34
23.88194
23.91173
23.68102
2.143385

PROYECCIN ESTIMADA
200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

-50,000

-100,000
2015

2016

2017
OFF

2018
2 S.E.

2019

2020

RESULTADOS DE LA PROYECCIN

Last updated: 02/25/16 - 16:23

Modified: 2015 2020 // forecast(f=actual) off
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

0.000000
58428.20
7491.860
68330.66
4817.810
141625.4
31.51000
27240.94
93624.11
30354.43
59245.28
46053.51
52076.97
49326.62
50582.45

GRAFICO DE LA PROYECCIN

OFF
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

UTILIDAD
REGRESIN MCO ARMA (1,1)

Dependent Variable: UTI

Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/25/16 Time: 15:57
Sample (adjusted): 2007 2014
Included observations: 8 after adjustments
Convergence achieved after 156 iterations
MA Backcast: 2006
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
AR(1)
MA(1)

70326.73
-0.724518
0.854586

8181.973
0.348275
0.795296

8.595326
-2.080306
1.074551

0.0004
0.0920
0.3317

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.766835
0.673569
19891.65
1.98E+09
-88.65593
8.222030
0.026252

Inverted AR Roots
Inverted MA Roots

-.72
-.85

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

69306.44
34815.71
22.91398
22.94377
22.71306
2.249212

PROYECCIN ESTIMADA

160,000

Forecast: UTIF
Actual: UTI
Forecast sample: 2006 2020
Adjusted sample: 2007 2020
Included observations: 8
Root Mean Squared Error 15471.58
Mean Absolute Error
11215.39
Mean Abs. Percent Error
18.23587
Theil Inequality Coefficient 0.104818
Bias Proportion
0.016075
Variance Proportion
0.417204
Covariance Proportion
0.566721

120,000

80,000

40,000

-40,000
07

08

09

10

11

12

13

UTIF

14

15
2 S.E.

16

17

18

19

20

ERROR
PORCENTUAL
MEDIO
ABSOLUTO

RESULTADOS DE LA PROYECCIN
Last updated: 02/25/16 - 16:09
Modified: 2006 2020 // forecast(f=actual) utif
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

NA
25808.05
102581.3
46957.71
87258.00
58059.72
79214.40
63887.45
74992.10
66946.58
72775.70
68552.40
71612.26
69395.34
71001.54

GRAFICO DE LA PROYECCIN

UTIF
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20