ANLISIS DE UNA SERIE HISTRICA DE TRNSITO MOPT - INVIAS Y PROYECCIN DEL NESE DE 80 kN DEL ES

Estacin
Sector

1086
Irra - La Felisa

1. Serie histrica de trnsito

Composicin
Ao
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

TPDS
353
736
993
1,531
1,598
2,064
2,163
1,959
2,224
2,684
2,105
2,925
2,089
2,102
2,055
2,968
2,877
3,509
3,453
3,843
3,135
3,341
4,029

%
Autos
55%
64%
61%
47%
50%
50%
67%
49%
53%
48%
50%
30%
42%
35%
45%
35%
39%
43%
47%
47%
47%
39%
46%

Autos
194
471
606
720
799
1,032
1,449
960
1,179
1,288
1,053
878
877
736
925
1,039
1,122
1,509
1,623
1,806
1,473
1,303
1,853

%
%
100%
Buses
Camiones
Buses
Camiones
Check
5%
18
40%
141
Ok
3%
22
33%
243
Ok
7%
70
32%
318
Ok
8%
122
45%
689
Ok
8%
128
42%
671
Ok
8%
165
42%
867
Ok
7%
151
26%
562
Ok
7%
137
44%
862
Ok
6%
133
41%
912
Ok
6%
161
46%
1,235
Ok
7%
147
43%
905
Ok
9%
263
61%
1,784
Ok
7%
146
51%
1,065
Ok
9%
189
56%
1,177
Ok
11%
226
44%
904
Ok
10%
297
55%
1,632
Ok
10%
288
51%
1,467
Ok
9%
316
48%
1,684
Ok
9%
311
43%
1,485
Ok
8%
307
45%
1,729
Ok
8%
251
45%
1,411
Ok
7%
234
54%
1,804
Ok
7%
282
47%
1,894
Ok

Aforo de camiones. Total de 7 das.

Aforo de camiones. % del TPDS.

C2P

C2G

C3C4

C5

>C5

%C2P

%C2G %C3C4

204
478
839
981
1,216
1,370
1,615
1,304
1,692
2,151
2,002
2,759
1,695
1,961
1,547
2,312
2,492
3,015
2,525
3,040
2,592
3,170
3,589

420
758
806
2,069
2,454
2,666
1,854
3,018
2,648
3,237
2,543
4,204
2,902
2,863
2,151
3,919
3,417
3,738
3,425
3,427
3,214
3,481
3,863

142
189
265
733
536
774
183
774
784
998
668
1,568
749
771
599
869
953
1,025
1,069
1,214
873
1,478
1,443

188
219
271
751
297
650
150
427
611
935
578
1,932
925
1,081
928
1,990
1,330
1,399
1,251
1,306
919
1,186
1,190

35
26
59
290
238
646
164
481
681
1,360
537
2,147
1,106
1,645
960
2,276
2,151
2,410
2,256
3,125
2,199
3,265
3,085

8.3%
9.3%
12.1%
9.2%
10.9%
9.5%
10.7%
9.5%
10.9%
11.4%
13.6%
13.5%
11.6%
13.3%
10.8%
11.1%
12.4%
12.3%
10.4%
11.3%
11.8%
13.6%
12.7%

17.0%
14.7%
11.6%
19.3%
21.9%
18.5%
12.2%
22.0%
17.0%
17.2%
17.3%
20.5%
19.8%
19.5%
15.0%
18.9%
17.0%
15.2%
14.2%
12.7%
14.6%
14.9%
13.7%

(1) En ausencia de un FDV para los buses se emplea 1.00.

(2) Si se dispone de varios FDV para la clase C3C4 se emplea el mayor entre ellos.
(3) Recomendacin de la Gua Metodolgica para el Diseo de Obras de Rehabilitacin de Pavimentos Asflticos en Carreteras (INVAS, 2008).

5.7%
3.7%
3.8%
6.8%
4.8%
5.4%
1.2%
5.6%
5.0%
5.3%
4.5%
7.7%
5.1%
5.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.7%
4.2%
4.4%
4.5%
4.0%
6.3%
5.1%

1,400,000.00
f(x) = 96306.8039518609 x^0.8205847746
1,200,000.00
R
Ejes sencillos equivalentes
de 80 kN
f(x)==0.8960689679
488.4306483322
x^0.6534270952
R = 0.9050718211
1,000,000.00
800,000.00
600,000.00
400,000.00
200,000.00
0.00

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

Ao - 1988
NESE real

Power (NESE real)

TPDS

Power (TPDS )

19

20

NESE DE 80 kN DEL ESTNDAR AASHTO PARA PAVIMENTOS FLEXIBLES.

e trnsito

de camiones. % del TPDS.

%C5

%>C5

7.6%
4.3%
3.9%
7.0%
2.7%
4.5%
1.0%
3.1%
3.9%
5.0%
3.9%
9.4%
6.3%
7.3%
6.5%
9.6%
6.6%
5.7%
5.2%
4.9%
4.2%
5.1%
4.2%

1.4%
0.5%
0.8%
2.7%
2.1%
4.5%
1.1%
3.5%
4.4%
7.2%
3.6%
10.5%
7.6%
11.2%
6.7%
11.0%
10.7%
9.8%
9.3%
11.6%
10.0%
14.0%
10.9%

%C
Check
Ok
Ok
Ok
Ok
Ok
Ok
Ok
Ok
Ok
Ok
Ok
Ok
Ok
Ok
X
Ok
Ok
Ok
Ok
Ok
Ok
Ok
Ok

Factor de deterioro vehicular (FDV)

B(1)

C2P

C2G

C3C4(2)

C5

>C5

Factor
direccional
(FD) (3)

1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00

0.10
0.10
0.10
2.16
2.16
2.16
2.16
1.14
1.14
1.14
1.14
1.14
1.14
1.14
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
1.01
1.01
1.01
1.01
1.01

2.80
2.80
2.80
2.16
2.16
2.16
2.16
3.44
3.44
3.44
3.44
3.44
3.44
3.44
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.72
2.72
2.72
2.72
2.72

6.70
6.70
6.70
4.39
4.39
4.39
4.39
3.76
3.76
3.76
3.76
3.76
3.76
3.76
3.15
3.15
3.15
3.15
3.72
3.72
3.72
3.72
3.72

5.30
5.30
5.30
4.21
4.21
4.21
4.21
4.40
4.40
4.40
4.40
4.40
4.40
4.40
4.21
4.21
4.21
4.21
4.88
4.88
4.88
4.88
4.88

5.90
5.90
5.90
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.72
4.72
4.72
4.72
4.72
4.72
4.72
5.31
5.31
5.31
5.31
5.23
5.23
5.23
5.23
5.23

0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55

Factor
de
NESE histrico
carril
anual
(FCa)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00

99,637
140,673
183,175
433,240
386,514
540,972
307,224
567,599
594,485
828,457
560,609
1,256,001
715,329
822,956
585,742
1,109,145
996,331
1,108,291
1,030,194
1,198,106
927,713
1,223,683
1,245,114

4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
17

18

(TPDS )

19

20

21

22

0
23

Trnsito Promedio Diario (veh./da)

2. Modelos de regresin

Modelo lineal: NESE = A + B * (Ao)

Variable X
Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
No. De datos (m)
Promedio de X
( )
^
^

( )
^ 121.00
^
100.00
81.00
64.00
49.00
36.00
25.00
16.00
9.00
4.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
4.00
9.00
16.00
25.00
36.00
49.00
64.00
81.00
100.00
121.00
23
12.00
1,012.00

NESE real

NESE modelo

Error de NESE

Residual

99,637
140,673
183,175
433,240
386,514
540,972
307,224
567,599
594,485
828,457
560,609
1,256,001
715,329
822,956
585,742
1,109,145
996,331
1,108,291
1,030,194
1,198,106
927,713
1,223,683
1,245,114

190,823
240,121
289,418
338,716
388,013
437,311
486,608
535,905
585,203
634,500
683,798
733,095
782,393
831,690
880,988
930,285
979,582
1,028,880
1,078,177
1,127,475
1,176,772
1,226,070
1,275,367

8,315,047,218
9,889,877,284
11,287,653,360
8,934,787,800
2,247,418
10,745,672,391
32,178,705,139
1,004,504,204
86,153,011
37,619,030,525
15,175,366,319
273,430,898,882
4,497,492,706
76,282,364
87,169,888,453
31,991,086,483
280,520,828
6,306,111,511
2,302,398,931
4,988,716,469
62,030,414,820
5,695,230
915,260,233

-91,187
-99,448
-106,243
94,524
-1,499
103,661
-179,384
31,694
9,282
193,956
-123,188
522,906
-67,063
-8,734
-295,245
178,861
16,749
79,411
-47,983
70,631
-249,059
-2,386
-30,253

A
B
R
Error de estimacin

141,526
49,297.4
80.15%
170,327

Modelo lineal

NESE = 141,526 +(49297.4) * (Ao)

Residual
normalizado
-0.535
-0.584
-0.624
0.555
-0.009
0.609
-1.053
0.186
0.054
1.139
-0.723
3.070
-0.394
-0.051
-1.733
1.050
0.098
0.466
-0.282
0.415
-1.462
-0.014
-0.178

Modelo logar
log10
(NESE real)
4.998
5.148
5.263
5.637
5.587
5.733
5.487
5.754
5.774
5.918
5.749
6.099
5.855
5.915
5.768
6.045
5.998
6.045
6.013
6.078
5.967
6.088
6.095

80%
70%
Porcentaje por tipologa en el TPDS
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

% Autos

10

11

12

13

14

Ao - 1988
% Buses % Camiones

15

resin

Modelo logartmico en Y: log10(NESE) = A + B*(Ao)

log10
Error de
(NESE modelo) log10(NESE)
5.349
0.1227
5.388
0.0576
5.428
0.0272
5.467
0.0287
5.507
0.0065
5.546
0.0349
5.586
0.0097
5.625
0.0166
5.665
0.0120
5.704
0.0458
5.744
0.0000
5.783
0.0997
5.823
0.0010
5.862
0.0028
5.902
0.0180
5.941
0.0107
5.981
0.0003
6.020
0.0006
6.060
0.0022
6.099
0.0004
6.139
0.0294
6.178
0.0082
6.218
0.0150

NESE
modelo
223,196
244,452
267,734
293,232
321,159
351,746
385,246
421,936
462,120
506,132
554,335
607,129
664,951
728,280
797,640
873,606
956,807
1,047,932
1,147,735
1,257,044
1,376,763
1,507,883
1,651,492

Error de NESE

Residual

15,266,832,774
10,770,156,631
7,150,172,661
19,602,124,949
4,271,264,366
35,806,529,044
6,087,389,299
21,217,909,989
17,520,382,402
103,893,283,805
39,368,774
421,035,440,527
2,537,974,096
8,963,588,178
44,900,788,839
55,478,797,296
1,562,160,059
3,643,219,068
13,815,934,974
3,473,699,451
201,645,392,547
80,769,700,652
165,142,999,136

-123,559
-103,779
-84,559
140,008
65,355
189,226
-78,022
145,664
132,365
322,325
6,274
648,872
50,378
94,676
-211,898
235,539
39,524
60,359
-117,541
-58,938
-449,049
-284,200
-406,378

A
B
R
Error de estimacin, log 10 (Sw)
Error de estimacin NESE
Modelo logartmico 10 en Y

NESE = 203,787 * 10 ^ [0.040 *(Ao) ]

5.309
0.040
74.17%
0.1618
243,447

Residual
normalizado
-0.508
-0.426
-0.347
0.575
0.268
0.777
-0.320
0.598
0.544
1.324
0.026
2.665
0.207
0.389
-0.870
0.968
0.162
0.248
-0.483
-0.242
-1.845
-1.167
-1.669

12

13

14

988
% Camiones

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

2. Modelos de regresin

Modelo potencial: log10(NESE) = A + B*log10(Ao)

log10
(Ao)
0.0000
0.3010
0.4771
0.6021
0.6990
0.7782
0.8451
0.9031
0.9542
1.0000
1.0414
1.0792
1.1139
1.1461
1.1761
1.2041
1.2304
1.2553
1.2788
1.3010
1.3222
1.3424
1.3617

log10
log10
Error de
(NESE real) (NESE modelo) log10(NESE)
4.998
4.984
0.0002
5.148
5.231
0.0068
5.263
5.375
0.0126
5.637
5.478
0.0253
5.587
5.557
0.0009
5.733
5.622
0.0123
5.487
5.677
0.0360
5.754
5.725
0.0009
5.774
5.767
0.0001
5.918
5.804
0.0130
5.749
5.838
0.0080
6.099
5.869
0.0528
5.855
5.898
0.0019
5.915
5.924
0.0001
5.768
5.949
0.0328
6.045
5.972
0.0054
5.998
5.993
0.0000
6.045
6.014
0.0010
6.013
6.033
0.0004
6.078
6.051
0.0007
5.967
6.069
0.0102
6.088
6.085
0.0000
6.095
6.101
0.0000

NESE
modelo
96,307
170,090
237,233
300,399
360,762
418,983
475,479
530,541
584,378
637,150
688,982
739,974
790,209
839,754
888,668
937,000
984,792
1,032,083
1,078,904
1,125,285
1,171,251
1,216,826
1,262,031

Error de NESE

Residual

11,087,054
865,333,805
2,922,295,105
17,646,703,362
663,152,111
14,881,382,770
28,309,896,429
1,373,331,035
102,146,954
36,598,179,479
16,479,547,555
266,283,917,975
5,606,958,045
282,176,322
91,764,148,342
29,634,134,238
133,146,034
5,807,690,047
2,372,646,679
5,302,888,816
59,310,746,894
47,015,823
286,201,516

3,330
-29,417
-54,058
132,841
25,752
121,989
-168,255
37,058
10,107
191,307
-128,373
516,027
-74,880
-16,798
-302,926
172,146
11,539
76,208
-48,710
72,821
-243,538
6,857
-16,917

A
B
R
Error de estimacin, log 10
Error de estimacin NESE
Modelo potencial

NESE = 96,307 * (Ao) ^ (0.821)

4.984
0.821
89.61%
0.1027
167,145

Modelo logartmi
Residual
normalizado
0.020
-0.176
-0.323
0.795
0.154
0.730
-1.007
0.222
0.060
1.145
-0.768
3.087
-0.448
-0.101
-1.812
1.030
0.069
0.456
-0.291
0.436
-1.457
0.041
-0.101

log10
(Ao)
0.0000
0.3010
0.4771
0.6021
0.6990
0.7782
0.8451
0.9031
0.9542
1.0000
1.0414
1.0792
1.1139
1.1461
1.1761
1.2041
1.2304
1.2553
1.2788
1.3010
1.3222
1.3424
1.3617

NESE real
99,637
140,673
183,175
433,240
386,514
540,972
307,224
567,599
594,485
828,457
560,609
1,256,001
715,329
822,956
585,742
1,109,145
996,331
1,108,291
1,030,194
1,198,106
927,713
1,223,683
1,245,114

3,000,000.0

Ejes
sencillos equivalentes de 80 kN
2,500,000.0

2,000,000.0

1,500,000.0

1,000,000.0

500,000.0

0.0

5
NESE real

10

15

NESE modelo

20

25

30

Ao - 1988
NESE futuro. R = 50%

35

NE

Modelo logartmico en X: NESE = A + B*log10(Ao)

NESE modelo

Error de NESE

Residual

756,358
1,667,056
2,577,754
3,488,453
4,399,151
5,309,849
6,220,548
7,131,246
8,041,944
8,952,643
9,863,341
10,774,039
11,684,738
12,595,436
13,506,134
14,416,832
15,327,531
16,238,229
17,148,927
18,059,626
18,970,324
19,881,022
20,791,721

431,282,866,304
2,329,845,530,826
5,734,011,132,051
9,334,326,646,222
16,101,256,057,051
22,742,192,062,286
34,967,399,405,504
43,081,456,776,055
55,464,653,418,957
66,002,398,240,566
86,540,812,849,401
90,593,043,612,889
120,327,916,859,265
138,591,278,948,414
166,936,531,854,616
177,094,532,527,457
205,383,282,243,644
228,915,030,181,110
259,813,567,320,102
284,310,861,222,211
325,535,808,476,329
348,096,305,711,049
382,069,839,864,851

-656,721
-1,526,383
-2,394,580
-3,055,213
-4,012,637
-4,768,877
-5,913,324
-6,563,647
-7,447,460
-8,124,186
-9,302,731
-9,518,038
-10,969,408
-11,772,480
-12,920,392
-13,307,687
-14,331,200
-15,129,938
-16,118,733
-16,861,520
-18,042,611
-18,657,339
-19,546,607

A
B
R
Error de estimacin NESE

-154,340
910,698
76.60%
12,091,708

Modelo logartmico 10 en X

NESE = -154,340 + 910,698 * log10 (Ao)]

Residual
normalizado
-0.054
-0.126
-0.198
-0.253
-0.332
-0.394
-0.489
-0.543
-0.616
-0.672
-0.769
-0.787
-0.907
-0.974
-1.069
-1.101
-1.185
-1.251
-1.333
-1.394
-1.492
-1.543
-1.617

35

40

45

NESE futuro. R = 90%

50

3. Proyeccin del trnsito para el diseo estructural de pavimentos

Modelo de proyeccin:

Potencial

90%

Confiabilidad

1.282

NESE = 96,307 * (Ao) ^ (0.821)

Ao
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036

Ao (X)
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48

Periodo de diseo
estructural (aos)
5
10
12
15
20

NESE futuro. R = 50%

1,528,575
1,571,717
1,614,603
1,657,242
1,699,643
1,741,815
1,783,765
1,825,502
1,867,031
1,908,359
1,949,494
1,990,440
2,031,203
2,071,789
2,112,202
2,152,447
2,192,529
2,232,452
2,272,219
2,311,835

Error del pronstico

192,692
195,183
197,782
200,486
203,289
206,188
209,179
212,257
215,420
218,664
221,984
225,378
228,842
232,374
235,969
239,626
243,341
247,113
250,937
254,813

NESE acumulado flexible

R = 50%
R = 90%
8.072E+06
9.340E+06
1.720E+07
1.983E+07
2.114E+07
2.434E+07
2.735E+07
3.145E+07
3.851E+07
4.420E+07

Correccin
247,031
250,225
253,557
257,023
260,616
264,333
268,167
272,114
276,169
280,327
284,583
288,935
293,376
297,903
302,513
307,201
311,964
316,798
321,702
326,670

NESE futuro. R = 90%

1,775,606
1,821,942
1,868,160
1,914,265
1,960,260
2,006,148
2,051,932
2,097,615
2,143,199
2,188,686
2,234,077
2,279,375
2,324,579
2,369,692
2,414,715
2,459,648
2,504,493
2,549,250
2,593,921
2,638,505

NESE acumulado rgido (1.492)

R = 50%
R = 0%
1.204E+07
1.394E+07
2.566E+07
2.958E+07
3.154E+07
3.632E+07
4.081E+07
4.692E+07
5.746E+07
6.594E+07

Nota: El valor de Zr se ha redondeado a cuatro cifras significativas.