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Distribucion Normal
Distribucion Normal
NORMAL
DISTRIBUCIN NORMAL
o campana de Gauss-Laplace
Funcin de densidad
= media
= desviacin estndar
= 3.1416
e = 2.71828
f(x)
f(x)
f(x)
0.5
0.5
f(x)
Punto de inflexin
Punto de inflexin
DISTRIBUCIN DE PROBABLIDAD
NORMAL ESTNDAR
Una variable aleatoria que tiene una distribucin normal
con media de cero y desviacin estndar de uno es
conocida como una distribucin de probabilidad normal
estndar.
f(z)
1 ( z ) 2 / 2
f ( z)
e
2
DISTRIBUCIN DE PROBABLIDAD
NORMAL ESTNDAR
La letra z es comunmente usada para designar a la variable
aleatoria normal estndar mediante la conversin de la
varaiable x por medio de la siguiente relacin matemtica.
z
donde:
= media de la distribucin.
= desviacin estndar de la distribucin.
x = variable aleatoria.
z = variable aleatoria estndar.
1 ( z ) 2 / 2
f ( z)
e
2
ING. SERGIO LOPEZ NIETO
Los valores de Z antes de la media son negativos, despus de la media son positivos
f(z)
Z -
Z +
f(x)
Desviacin estndar = 0.8
Desviacin estndar =1
12
Z=
x
z
f(x)
Desviacin estndar = 0.8
12 10
2.5
.8
Desviacin estndar =1
12
Z = 2.5
x
z
f(x)
Desviacin estndar = 0.8
Desviacin estndar =1
x
z
0.01
.....
..
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
z
0.08
0.09
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
0.9943 0.9945 0.9946 0.9948 0.9949 0.9951
0.9956
0.9967
p( z < 1.43 ) = ?
rea
1.43
0
0.5000
0.5398
0.5793
0.6179
0.6554
0.6915
0.7257
0.7580
0.7881
0.8159
0.8413
0.8643
0.8849
0.9032
0.9192
0.01
0.5040
0.5438
0.5832
0.6217
0.6591
0.6950
0.7291
0.7611
0.7910
0.8186
0.8438
0.8665
0.8869
0.9049
0.9207
0.02
0.5080
0.5478
0.5871
0.6255
0.6628
0.6985
0.7324
0.7642
0.7939
0.8212
0.8461
0.8686
0.8888
0.9066
0.9222
0.03
0.5120
0.5517
0.5910
0.6293
0.6664
0.7019
0.7357
0.7673
0.7967
0.8238
0.8485
0.8708
0.8907
0.9082
0.9236
0.04
0.5160
0.5557
0.5948
0.6331
0.6700
0.7054
0.7389
0.7704
0.7995
0.8264
0.8508
0.8729
0.8925
0.9099
0.9251
0.05
0.5199
0.5596
0.5987
0.6368
0.6736
0.7088
0.7422
0.7734
0.8023
0.8289
0.8531
0.8749
0.8944
0.9115
0.9265
0.06
0.5239
0.5636
0.6026
0.6406
0.6772
0.7123
0.7454
0.7764
0.8051
0.8315
0.8554
0.8770
0.8962
0.9131
0.9279
0.07
0.5279
0.5675
0.6064
0.6443
0.6808
0.7157
0.7486
0.7794
0.8078
0.8340
0.8577
0.8790
0.8980
0.9147
0.9292
0.08
0.5319
0.5714
0.6103
0.6480
0.6844
0.7190
0.7517
0.7823
0.8106
0.8365
0.8599
0.8810
0.8997
0.9162
0.9306
0.09
0.5359
0.5753
0.6141
0.6517
0.6879
0.7224
0.7549
0.7852
0.8133
0.8389
0.8621
0.8830
0.9015
0.9177
0.9319
1-0.9236
0.9236
1.43
P( z >1.43) = 0.0764
Z
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
0
0.5000
0.5398
0.5793
0.6179
0.6554
0.6915
0.7257
0.7580
0.7881
0.8159
0.8413
0.8643
0.8849
0.9032
0.9192
0.01
0.5040
0.5438
0.5832
0.6217
0.6591
0.6950
0.7291
0.7611
0.7910
0.8186
0.8438
0.8665
0.8869
0.9049
0.9207
0.02
0.5080
0.5478
0.5871
0.6255
0.6628
0.6985
0.7324
0.7642
0.7939
0.8212
0.8461
0.8686
0.8888
0.9066
0.9222
0.03
0.5120
0.5517
0.5910
0.6293
0.6664
0.7019
0.7357
0.7673
0.7967
0.8238
0.8485
0.8708
0.8907
0.9082
0.9236
0.04
0.5160
0.5557
0.5948
0.6331
0.6700
0.7054
0.7389
0.7704
0.7995
0.8264
0.8508
0.8729
0.8925
0.9099
0.9251
0.05
0.5199
0.5596
0.5987
0.6368
0.6736
0.7088
0.7422
0.7734
0.8023
0.8289
0.8531
0.8749
0.8944
0.9115
0.9265
0.06
0.5239
0.5636
0.6026
0.6406
0.6772
0.7123
0.7454
0.7764
0.8051
0.8315
0.8554
0.8770
0.8962
0.9131
0.9279
0.07
0.5279
0.5675
0.6064
0.6443
0.6808
0.7157
0.7486
0.7794
0.8078
0.8340
0.8577
0.8790
0.8980
0.9147
0.9292
0.08
0.5319
0.5714
0.6103
0.6480
0.6844
0.7190
0.7517
0.7823
0.8106
0.8365
0.8599
0.8810
0.8997
0.9162
0.9306
0.09
0.5359
0.5753
0.6141
0.6517
0.6879
0.7224
0.7549
0.7852
0.8133
0.8389
0.8621
0.8830
0.9015
0.9177
0.9319
z =1.43
rea
-1.5
1.43
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
0
0.0668
0.5000
0.5398
0.5793
0.6179
0.6554
0.6915
0.7257
0.7580
0.7881
0.8159
0.8413
0.8643
0.8849
0.9032
0.9192
0.01
0.0655
0.5040
0.5438
0.5832
0.6217
0.6591
0.6950
0.7291
0.7611
0.7910
0.8186
0.8438
0.8665
0.8869
0.9049
0.9207
0.02
0.0643
0.5080
0.5478
0.5871
0.6255
0.6628
0.6985
0.7324
0.7642
0.7939
0.8212
0.8461
0.8686
0.8888
0.9066
0.9222
0.03
0.0630
0.5120
0.5517
0.5910
0.6293
0.6664
0.7019
0.7357
0.7673
0.7967
0.8238
0.8485
0.8708
0.8907
0.9082
0.9236
rea
- .0668 = .8568
0.04
0.0618
0.5160
0.5557
0.5948
0.6331
0.6700
0.7054
0.7389
0.7704
0.7995
0.8264
0.8508
0.8729
0.8925
0.9099
0.9251
0.05
0.0606
0.5199
0.5596
0.5987
0.6368
0.6736
0.7088
0.7422
0.7734
0.8023
0.8289
0.8531
0.8749
0.8944
0.9115
0.9265
0.06
0.0594
0.5239
0.5636
0.6026
0.6406
0.6772
0.7123
0.7454
0.7764
0.8051
0.8315
0.8554
0.8770
0.8962
0.9131
0.9279
0.07
0.0582
0.5279
0.5675
0.6064
0.6443
0.6808
0.7157
0.7486
0.7794
0.8078
0.8340
0.8577
0.8790
0.8980
0.9147
0.9292
-1.5
0.08
0.09
0.0571
0.5319
0.5714
0.6103
0.6480
0.6844
0.7190
0.7517
0.7823
0.8106
0.8365
0.8599
0.8810
0.8997
0.9162
0.9306
0.0559
0.5359
0.5753
0.6141
0.6517
0.6879
0.7224
0.7549
0.7852
0.8133
0.8389
0.8621
0.8830
0.9015
0.9177
0.9319
1.43
Observe:
rea = F(1.43) F(-1.5)
Observe, que esta tabla tiene valores acumulados a partir de z = 0, hay tablas
acumuladas desde z = -3.4 , por lo que el estudiante debe tener cuidado en la tabla
que va usar.
P ( x 60) = ?
ejemplos
Area = .2967
= .83
Area = 0.2033
Area = 0.7967
0 .83
ING. SERGIO LOPEZ NIETO
.00
z
.0 .0000
.1 .0398
.01
.02
.03
.04
.05
.06
.07
.08
.09
.0359
.0753
.1141
.1368 .1406 .1443 .1480 .1517
.1736 .1772 .1808 .1844 .1879
.9 .3159 .3186 .3212 .3238 .3264 .3289 .3315 .3340 .3365 .3389
Area = 0.05
Area = .5
Area = .
45
z.05
.
.4441
.4545
.4633
1.8 .4641 .4649 .4656 .4664 .4671 .4678 .4686 .4693 .4699 .4706
1.9 .4713 .4719 .4726 .4732 .4738 .4744 .4750 .4756 .4761 .4767
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
x = + z.05
= 15 + 1.645(6)
= 24.87
Un punto de reordenamiento de 24.87 galones
situara la probabilidad de una inexistencia
durante el plazo de demanda a 0.05. Tal vez la
refaccionaria debera mandar su punto de
reordenamiento a 25 galones para mantener la
probabilidad debajo de .05.
a). Solucin
z = (75 -68)/5 = 1.4
p (X > 75) = p (z > 1.4) = 1 - P (z 1.4) = 1 0.9192 = 0.0808
Por lo tanto el 8.08% de las lmparas
(808 lmparas) superarn los 75 meses.
b). Solucin
z = (60 -68)/5 = -1.6
P (X 60) = (z -1.6) = P (z> 1.6) = 1 - P (z 1.6) = 0.0548
Por lo tanto, el 5.48% del lote (548 lmparas) no llegarn probablemente a
durar 60 meses
z
.
.00
.
.01
.
.02
.
.03
.
.04
.
.05
.
.06
.
.07
.
.08
.
.09
.
1.9 .4713 .4719 .4726 .4732 .4738 .4744 .4750 .4756 .4761 .4767
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Se est calculando un rea
simtrica
-1.6
ING. SERGIO LOPEZ NIETO
1.6
x=z+
x = 1.04(5)+72 = 77.2
0.15
X=77.2
Z=1.04
ING. SERGIO LOPEZ NIETO
= npq = (50)(.2)(.8)=2.828
P(x <5 ) ?
2.62%
Z
Z=-1.94
ING. SERGIO LOPEZ NIETO
= npq = (50)(.2)(.8)=2.828
P(x >5 ) ?
Z
Z=-1.59
ING. SERGIO LOPEZ NIETO
= npq = (50)(.2)(.8)=2.828
P(x 5 ) ?
Z
Z=-1.94
ING. SERGIO LOPEZ NIETO
= npq = (50)(.2)(.8)=2.828
P(x =5 ) ?
P(x=5) = p( -1.94<Z<-1.59) =0.0297
2.97%
Z
Z=-1.94
Z= -1.59
FIN