ECONOMIA DE LOS PROCESOS

PI- 510

TERCER TRABAJO DE ECONOMIA DE LOS PROCESOS:

Anlisis de sensibilidad:
Variables:
V esperado Bmin Bmax
capacidad

740,000.00 0.85

1.15 1.00000

Variable
740000

ipa/ace

1.32

0.9

1.1

1.00000

1.32

ace/mibk

1.42

0.9

1.1

1.00000

1.42

inversin

131

0.9

1.25 1.00000

131

costos variables

143

0.8

1.1

1.00000

143

Mano de obra

3850

0.8

1.15 1.00000

3850

10 VPN

TIR

FNF econmico -131.0 -102.9 17.8 26.3 45.7 35.8 9.9 49.1 31.6 27.1 177.4 -11.13 9.125%
FNF financiero

-71.0 -121.3

1.1 11.1 32.0 35.8 9.9 49.1 31.6 27.1 177.4

-2.57 9.773%

Sensibilidad de la Capacidad:
Evaluacin econmica FNF

Rentabilidad

Beta

0.85

-131

-89.17 13.70 20.87 37.39 28.99

6.97 40.28 25.41 21.57 149.58 -38.25

0.07

0.9

-131

-93.73 15.08 22.67 40.16 31.27

7.95 43.22 27.48 23.41 158.85 -29.21

0.08

0.95

-131

-98.30 16.46 24.47 42.94 33.55

8.94 46.17 29.54 25.25 168.12 -20.17

0.08

-131 -102.86 17.84 26.28 45.71 35.83

9.92 49.11 31.61 27.10 177.38 -11.13

0.09

10 VPN

TIR 10%

1.05

-131 -107.43 19.22 28.08 48.48 38.11 10.90 52.05 33.68 28.94 186.65

-2.08

0.10

1.1

-131 -111.99 20.60 29.88 51.26 40.40 11.89 55.00 35.75 30.78 195.92

6.96

0.11

1.15

-131 -116.55 21.98 31.68 54.03 42.68 12.87 57.94 37.82 32.63 205.18

16.00

0.11

Evaluacin financiera
Beta

FNF

Rentabilidad
1

10 VPN

TIR 10%

0.85

-71 -107.63

-3.08

5.67 23.67 28.99

6.97 40.28 25.41 21.57 149.58 -29.70

0.07

0.9

-71 -112.19

-1.70

7.47 26.44 31.27

7.95 43.22 27.48 23.41 158.85 -20.66

0.08

0.95

-71 -116.76

-0.32

9.27 29.22 33.55

8.94 46.17 29.54 25.25 168.12 -11.61

0.09

-71 -121.32

1.06 11.07 31.99 35.83

9.92 49.11 31.61 27.10 177.38

-2.57

0.10

1.05

-71 -125.89

2.44 12.88 34.76 38.11 10.90 52.05 33.68 28.94 186.65

6.47

0.11

1.1

-71 -130.45

3.82 14.68 37.54 40.40 11.89 55.00 35.75 30.78 195.92

15.51

0.11

1.15

-71 -135.01

5.20 16.48 40.31 42.68 12.87 57.94 37.82 32.63 205.18

24.56

0.12

ECONOMIA DE LOS PROCESOS

PI- 510

Sensibilidad de ipa/ace:
Evaluacin econmica FNF

Rentabilidad

Beta

0.9

-131

-50.24

63.63

71.72

0.95

-131

10 VPN

TIR 10%

90.10 80.40

56.59 92.27

77.41

72.54 212.66

269.42

0.32

-76.55

40.74

49.00

67.90 58.12

33.26 70.69

54.51

49.82 195.02

129.15

0.20

-131 -102.86

17.84

26.28

45.71 35.83

9.92 49.11

31.61

27.10 177.38

-11.13

0.09

1.05

-131 -129.17

-5.06

3.56

23.52 13.55 -13.42 27.53

8.71

4.38 159.74 -151.40

-0.02

1.1

-131 -155.48 -27.96 -19.16

Evaluacin financiera

0.9

-71

-68.70

46.85

56.51

0.95

-71

-95.01

23.96

-71 -121.32

1.06

76.38 80.40

56.59 92.27

77.41

72.54 212.66

277.97

0.38

33.79

54.18 58.12

33.26 70.69

54.51

49.82 195.02

137.70

0.23

11.07

31.99 35.83

9.92 49.11

31.61

27.10 177.38

-2.57

0.10

9.80 13.55 -13.42 27.53

8.71

4.38 159.74 -142.84

-0.02

-71 -147.63 -21.84 -11.65

1.1

5.95 -14.18 -18.34 142.11 -291.67 #NUM!

Rentabilidad

1.05

-8.73 -36.75

FNF

Beta

1.32

-71 -173.95 -44.74 -34.37 -12.40

-8.73 -36.75

10 VPN

TIR 10%

5.95 -14.18 -18.34 142.11 -283.12 #DIV/0!

Sensibilidad de ace/mibk:
Evaluacin
econmica FNF
Beta

Rentabilidad

0.9

-131

-47.34

66.15

74.23

92.61

82.92

59.11

94.78

79.93

75.05

214.79

285.08

0.33

0.95

-131

-75.10

41.99

50.25

69.16

59.38

34.51

71.95

55.77

51.07

196.09

136.97

0.21

-131

-102.86

17.84

26.28

45.71

35.83

49.11

31.61

27.10

177.38

1.05

-131

-130.62

7.46
16.70

3.12
20.86

158.68

-158.38

12.29
11.25

26.27

-131

2.30
21.68

22.26

1.1

-6.32
30.48

9.92
14.67
39.27

-11.13
0.09
159.23
-0.02
307.33 #NUM!

-1.19

3.44

10 VPN

139.97

Evaluacin
financiera FNF
Beta

TIR 10%

Rentabilidad

10 VPN

TIR 10%

0.9

-71

-65.80

49.37

59.03

78.89

82.92

59.11

94.78

79.93

75.05

214.79

293.63

0.39

0.95

-71

-93.56

25.21

35.05

55.44

59.38

34.51

71.95

55.77

51.07

196.09

145.53

0.24

-71

-121.32

35.83

31.61

27.10

177.38

-149.08
-176.84

7.46
16.70

3.12
20.86

158.68

-71

12.29
11.25

26.27

1.1

8.54
14.91

9.92
14.67
39.27

49.11

-71

11.07
12.90
36.88

31.99

1.05

1.06
23.10
47.26

-2.57
0.10
150.67
-0.03
298.77 #DIV/0!

3.44

139.97

ECONOMIA DE LOS PROCESOS

PI- 510

Sensibilidad de la inversin:
Evaluacin econmica FNF
Beta

Rentabilidad
1

10 VPN

TIR 10%

0.9

-117.9 -102.01 18.54 26.98 46.42 36.54 10.63 49.82 32.32 27.80 177.95

6.40

0.11

0.95

-124.45 -102.43 18.19 26.63 46.06 36.19 10.27 49.46 31.97 27.45 177.66

-2.37

0.10

-131 -102.86 17.84 26.28 45.71 35.83

9.92 49.11 31.61 27.10 177.38 -11.13

0.09

1.05

-137.55 -103.29 17.48 25.92 45.36 35.48

9.57 48.76 31.26 26.74 177.10 -19.89

0.08

1.1

-144.1 -103.71 17.13 25.57 45.00 35.13

9.21 48.40 30.91 26.39 176.82 -28.65

0.08

1.15

-150.65 -104.14 16.78 25.21 44.65 34.77

8.86 48.05 30.55 26.04 176.54 -37.41

0.07

1.2

-157.2 -104.57 16.42 24.86 44.30 34.42

8.51 47.70 30.20 25.68 176.26 -46.17

0.07

1.25

-163.75 -104.99 16.07 24.51 43.94 34.07

8.15 47.34 29.85 25.33 175.98 -54.93

0.06

Evaluacin financiera
Beta

FNF

Rentabilidad
1

10 VPN

TIR 10%

0.9

-57.9 -120.47

1.76 11.78 32.70 36.54 10.63 49.82 32.32 27.80 177.95

14.95

0.11

0.95

-64.45 -120.90

1.41 11.43 32.34 36.19 10.27 49.46 31.97 27.45 177.66

6.19

0.11

-71 -121.32

1.06 11.07 31.99 35.83

9.92 49.11 31.61 27.10 177.38

-2.57

0.10

1.05

-77.55 -121.75

0.70 10.72 31.64 35.48

9.57 48.76 31.26 26.74 177.10 -11.33

0.09

1.1

-84.1 -122.18

0.35 10.37 31.28 35.13

9.21 48.40 30.91 26.39 176.82 -20.09

0.08

1.15

-90.65 -122.60

0.00 10.01 30.93 34.77

8.86 48.05 30.55 26.04 176.54 -28.86

0.08

1.2

-97.2 -123.03

-0.36

9.66 30.58 34.42

8.51 47.70 30.20 25.68 176.26 -37.62

0.07

1.25

-103.75 -123.46

-0.71

9.30 30.22 34.07

8.15 47.34 29.85 25.33 175.98 -46.38

0.06

Sensibilidad de los costos variables:

Evaluacin econmica FNF

Rentabilidad

Beta

10 VPN

TIR 10%

0.8

-131

-86.21 32.66 41.10 60.53 50.66 24.74 63.93 46.43 41.92 190.37

80.90

0.16

0.85

-131

-90.37 28.95 37.39 56.83 46.95 21.04 60.23 42.73 38.21 187.13

57.89

0.15

0.9

-131

-94.54 25.25 33.69 53.12 43.25 17.33 56.52 39.02 34.51 183.88

34.89

0.13

0.95

-131

-98.70 21.54 29.98 49.42 39.54 13.63 52.82 35.32 30.80 180.63

11.88

0.11

-131 -102.86 17.84 26.28 45.71 35.83

9.92 49.11 31.61 27.10 177.38 -11.13

0.09

1.05

-131 -107.02 14.13 22.57 42.00 32.13

6.21 45.40 27.91 23.39 174.14 -34.13

0.07

1.1

-131 -111.19 10.43 18.86 38.30 28.42

2.51 41.70 24.20 19.69 170.89 -57.14

0.06

Evaluacin financiera
Beta

FNF

Rentabilidad
1

10 VPN

TIR 10%

0.8

-71 -104.67 15.88 25.89 46.81 50.66 24.74 63.93 46.43 41.92 190.37

89.46

0.18

0.85

-71 -108.83 12.17 22.19 43.11 46.95 21.04 60.23 42.73 38.21 187.13

66.45

0.16

-71 -113.00

43.44

0.14

0.9

8.47 18.48 39.40 43.25 17.33 56.52 39.02 34.51 183.88

ECONOMIA DE LOS PROCESOS

PI- 510

0.95

-71 -117.16

4.76 14.78 35.70 39.54 13.63 52.82 35.32 30.80 180.63

20.44

0.12

-71 -121.32

1.06 11.07 31.99 35.83

-2.57

0.10

1.05

-71 -125.49

-2.65

7.37 28.29 32.13

6.21 45.40 27.91 23.39 174.14 -25.58

0.08

1.1

-71 -129.65

-6.35

3.66 24.58 28.42

2.51 41.70 24.20 19.69 170.89 -48.59

0.06

9.92 49.11 31.61 27.10 177.38

Sensibilidad de la mano de obra:

Evaluacin econmica FNF
Beta

Rentabilidad
1

10 VPN

TIR 10%

0.8

-131 -102.25 18.38 26.81 46.25 36.37 10.46 49.65 32.15 27.64 177.85

-7.78

0.09

0.85

-131 -102.40 18.24 26.68 46.11 36.24 10.32 49.51 32.02 27.50 177.73

-8.62

0.09

0.9

-131 -102.56 18.11 26.54 45.98 36.10 10.19 49.38 31.88 27.37 177.62

-9.45

0.09

-131 -102.71 17.97 26.41 45.84 35.97 10.05 49.25 31.75 27.23 177.50 -10.29

0.09

-131 -102.86 17.84 26.28 45.71 35.83

9.92 49.11 31.61 27.10 177.38 -11.13

0.09

1.05

-131 -103.01 17.70 26.14 45.58 35.70

9.79 48.98 31.48 26.96 177.27 -11.96

0.09

1.1

-131 -103.17 17.57 26.01 45.44 35.57

9.65 48.84 31.34 26.83 177.15 -12.80

0.09

1.15

-131 -103.32 17.43 25.87 45.31 35.43

9.52 48.71 31.21 26.69 177.03 -13.64

0.09

0.95

Evaluacin financiera
Beta

FNF

Rentabilidad
1

10 VPN

TIR 10%

0.8

-71 -120.71

1.60 11.61 32.53 36.37 10.46 49.65 32.15 27.64 177.85

0.78

0.10

0.85

-71 -120.87

1.46 11.48 32.39 36.24 10.32 49.51 32.02 27.50 177.73

-0.06

0.10

0.9

-71 -121.02

1.33 11.34 32.26 36.10 10.19 49.38 31.88 27.37 177.62

-0.90

0.10

0.95

-71 -121.17

1.19 11.21 32.13 35.97 10.05 49.25 31.75 27.23 177.50

-1.73

0.10

-71 -121.32

1.06 11.07 31.99 35.83

9.92 49.11 31.61 27.10 177.38

-2.57

0.10

1.05

-71 -121.48

0.92 10.94 31.86 35.70

9.79 48.98 31.48 26.96 177.27

-3.41

0.10

1.1

-71 -121.63

0.79 10.80 31.72 35.57

9.65 48.84 31.34 26.83 177.15

-4.25

0.10

1.15

-71 -121.78

0.65 10.67 31.59 35.43

9.52 48.71 31.21 26.69 177.03

-5.08

0.10

ECONOMIA DE LOS PROCESOS

PI- 510

Cuadros de resumen de anlisis de sensibilidad:

EVALUACIN ECONMICA
VPN 10%
Beta

capacidad

ipa/ace

ace/mibk

inversin

costos variables

0.8

Mano de obra

80.9

-7.8

57.9

-8.6

0.85

-38.3

0.9

-29.2

269.4

285.1

6.4

34.9

-9.5

0.95

-20.2

129.1

137.0

-2.4

11.9

-10.3

-11.1

-11.1

-11.1

-11.1

-11.1

-11.1

1.05

-2.1

-151.4

-159.2

-19.9

-34.1

-12.0

1.1

7.0

-291.7

-307.3

-28.7

-57.1

-12.8

1.15

16.0

-37.4

1.2

-46.2

1.25

-54.9

-13.6

EVALUACIN FINANCIERA
VPN 10%
Beta

capacidad

ipa/ace ace/mibk inversin

0.8

costos variables

Mano de obra

89.5

0.8

66.5

-0.1

0.85

-29.7

0.9

-20.7

278.0

293.6

15.0

43.4

-0.9

0.95

-11.6

137.7

145.5

6.2

20.4

-1.7

-2.6

-2.6

-2.6

-2.6

-2.6

-2.6

1.05

6.5

-142.8

-150.7

-11.3

-25.6

-3.4

1.1

15.5

-283.1

-298.8

-20.1

-48.6

-4.2

1.15

24.6

-28.9

1.2

-37.6

1.25

-46.4

-5.1

Clculos de puntos negativos entre puntos positivos:

Evaluacin econmica:

Evaluacin financiera:

ECONOMIA DE LOS PROCESOS

PI- 510

Grficos obtenidos:

Anlisis de sensibilidad-Evaluacin Econmica

400.0

VPN 10%

300.0
200.0

Capacidad

100.0

ipa7ace
ace/mibk

0.0
-100.0

0.75

0.85

0.95

1.05

1.15

1.25

1.35

Inversion
Costos

-200.0

Mano de obra

-300.0
-400.0

Anlisis de sensibilidad-Evaluacin Financiera

400.0
300.0
200.0
VPN 10%

Capacidad
100.0

ipa/ace

0.0
-100.0

0.75

0.85

0.95

1.05

1.15

1.25

1.35

ace/mibk
Inversion
Costos

-200.0

Mano de obra
-300.0
-400.0

ECONOMIA DE LOS PROCESOS

PI- 510

Conclusiones del anlisis de sensibilidad:

Anlisis econmico:
La relacin entre las cantidades de ACE/MIBK es la que influye ms en el proyecto, porque
presenta una pendiente mayor, por tanto el proyecto es ms sensible a esta variable.
Mientras la relacin aumenta, el VPN disminuye.
La relacin entre las cantidades de IPA/ACE es la segunda con mayor influencia en el
proyecto. Mientras la relacin aumenta, el VPN disminuye.
Se puede observar que la mano de obra es la variable que menos afecta al desarrollo del
proyecto.
La probabilidad de que el proyecto no sea rentable es del 72,5 %. El cual es un valor
demasiado alto. Una explicacin podra ser de que el valor de los VPN es negativo en su
valor esperado.

Anlisis financiero:
La relacin entre las cantidades de ACE/MIBK es la que influye ms en el proyecto.
Mientras la relacin aumenta, el VPN disminuye.
La relacin entre las cantidades de IPA/ACE es la segunda con mayor influencia en el
proyecto. Mientras la relacin aumenta, el VPN disminuye.
Se puede observar que la mano de obra es la variable que menos afecta al desarrollo del
proyecto.
La probabilidad de que el proyecto no sea rentable es del 65,0%. El cual es un valor
demasiado alto para el proyecto. Una explicacin podra ser de que los valores de los VPN
son negativos en todo el horizonte del proyecto.

SIMULACIN DE MONTECARLO
Datos tabulados de la simulacin:
nmero

VPN eco

VPN finan

TIR eco

TIR finan

-414.3286698

-405.7722719

-0.21206372

-0.21830965

-365.0890333

-356.5326354

-0.16323306

-0.16948036

-342.7270674

-334.1706694

-0.17210666

-0.17913766

-321.7347041

-313.1783061

-0.14825368

-0.15496395

-241.243603

-232.687205

-0.07641778

-0.08179003

-238.5620525

-230.0056546

-0.09565377

-0.1021835

-214.0968098

-205.5404118

-0.06097478

-0.06606738

-212.1138688

-203.5574708

-0.05994794

-0.06500094

ECONOMIA DE LOS PROCESOS

PI- 510

-189.0701911

-180.5137931

-0.04814108

-0.0529499

10

-186.0313014

-177.4749035

-0.04615025

-0.05091457

11

-158.4974189

-149.9410209

-0.01728007

-0.02035204

12

-157.7932894

-149.2368915

-0.01543604

-0.01837033

13

-154.1708723

-145.6144743

-0.0250504

-0.02889227

14

-143.6925557

-135.1361578

-0.01002589

-0.01277365

15

-141.84886

-133.292462

-0.00736184

-0.00991588

16

-128.9445655

-120.3881675

0.001023238

-0.00102693

17

-123.2500545

-114.6936565

-0.0012914

-0.00367778

18

-119.9711214

-111.4147234

0.004193846

0.00227133

19

-116.8720173

-108.3156194

0.01003354

0.00858622

20

-113.5391188

-104.9827208

0.010515579

0.00907454

21

-101.0972269

-92.54082897

0.025008965

0.02471088

22

-92.08814666

-83.5317487

0.026655325

0.02646996

23

-88.24764729

-79.69124933

0.032143334

0.0324181

24

-83.12989117

-74.5734932

0.033036793

0.0334045

25

-73.95983394

-65.40343597

0.043605253

0.04487781

26

-71.94277514

-63.38637718

0.044925738

0.04631855

27

-57.17972321

-48.62332525

0.056074976

0.05852789

28

-56.94417789

-48.38777993

0.05573867

0.05819562

29

-52.08296818

-43.52657022

0.062050576

0.06492915

30

-50.92508759

-42.36868962

0.063600193

0.06657251

31

-41.49445732

-32.93805935

0.067874095

0.07156464

32

-37.8851455

-29.32874754

0.068553005

0.07261817

33

-36.77812029

-28.22172232

0.071536793

0.07562603

34

-34.50288878

-25.94649081

0.073987911

0.07821468

35

-32.8291251

-24.27272713

0.076101478

0.08038587

36

-25.61539611

-17.05899814

0.079977718

0.08506173

37

-23.64509485

-15.08869689

0.081858224

0.0870537

38

-17.84878346

-9.292385495

0.086896414

0.09240133

39

-7.874032712

0.682365255

0.09401562

0.10058114

40

-7.561417154

0.994980813

0.094130345

0.10086828

41

-2.406543574

6.149854393

0.098107948

0.10544929

42

0.911995369

9.468393336

0.100709687

0.10829636

43

1.229630315

9.786028281

0.100920591

0.10821302

44

5.379062025

13.93545999

0.104347936

0.11276247

45

5.674352309

14.23075028

0.104324468

0.11220492

46

10.48439443

19.0407924

0.108182152

0.11678309

47

10.90413634

19.46053431

0.10790865

0.11579909

48

18.08100412

26.63740208

0.113790171

0.12292532

49

20.23742218

28.79382015

0.114999014

0.12400021

ECONOMIA DE LOS PROCESOS

PI- 510

50

33.41466336

41.97106132

0.125261903

0.13590282

51

35.40398884

43.9603868

0.129954877

0.14278751

52

40.5208042

49.07720217

0.130755037

0.14218826

53

44.87550748

53.43190545

0.134783444

0.1471732

54

51.16510086

59.72149882

0.139731434

0.15287251

55

53.12589697

61.68229494

0.141873942

0.15553263

56

56.8561566

65.41255456

0.148335532

0.1644357

57

66.81073721

75.36713518

0.150941639

0.16550927

58

69.1132542

77.66965217

0.15340849

0.16865072

59

72.09184385

80.64824182

0.155266599

0.1707598

60

78.67157795

87.22797592

0.156951492

0.17166128

61

80.20916901

88.76556698

0.167600539

0.18719341

62

81.61357148

90.16996945

0.162193515

0.17858894

63

89.88750295

98.44390091

0.172851305

0.19236517

64

97.3061447

105.8625427

0.171639374

0.18892132

65

99.1075968

107.6639948

0.176595368

0.19585105

66

100.0293025

108.5857005

0.183724097

0.20629874

67

101.4067169

109.9631149

0.176866946

0.19582755

68

101.8687445

110.4251425

0.176132571

0.19459964

69

104.3591968

112.9155948

0.180878873

0.20096548

70

107.5247368

116.0811348

0.182989203

0.2034421

71

113.242124

121.7985219

0.18531239

0.20535241

72

116.7301819

125.2865799

0.18397315

0.20293657

73

126.9412497

135.4976476

0.194359389

0.21588151

74

141.5409671

150.0973651

0.22181902

0.25386219

75

156.0287418

164.5851398

0.216485817

0.24255853

76

160.9079884

169.4643863

0.221150336

0.24817907

77

161.9642375

170.5206354

0.226331465

0.2560214

78

166.0465974

174.6029954

0.224661075

0.25229116

79

169.4134014

177.9697993

0.221025559

0.24638372

80

173.3545214

181.9109193

0.241351005

0.27602205

81

179.3247153

187.8811133

0.235594519

0.26590208

82

179.7846849

188.3410829

0.233162976

0.26202887

83

182.2358044

190.7922023

0.255916004

0.29655069

84

185.2154239

193.7718218

0.239609667

0.27076173

85

190.1969871

198.7533851

0.243598363

0.27608775

86

191.5375411

200.0939391

0.255112458

0.29332006

87

193.3886197

201.9450177

0.257886607

0.29699546

88

194.0792724

202.6356704

0.257166287

0.2957592

89

202.6396387

211.1960367

0.248005888

0.27991512

90

208.5517843

217.1081823

0.272556014

0.31648821

ECONOMIA DE LOS PROCESOS

PI- 510

91

209.3961573

217.9525552

0.2789825

0.32621684

92

214.4891314

223.0455293

0.278066374

0.32347512

93

229.017451

237.573849

0.287229414

0.33406608

94

240.9652175

249.5216154

0.285034559

0.32800592

95

244.5356689

253.0920668

0.28766279

0.33093514

96

267.7335586

276.2899566

0.314331588

0.36769231

97

279.3856734

287.9420713

0.320144756

0.37376337

98

359.4701706

368.0265686

0.39297071

0.47371596

99

375.3769769

383.9333749

0.400295957

0.48011323

100

426.6748959

435.2312938

0.466823391

0.5845285

RESULTADO DEL ANLISIS FINANCIERO CON SIMULACIN DE MONTECARLO

VPN - econmico
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-600

-400

-200

200

400

600

10

ECONOMIA DE LOS PROCESOS

PI- 510

VPN financiero
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-600

-400

-200

200

400

600

Conclusiones:
En ambos casos se puede observar que la probabilidad de que el proyecto no sea rentable es del
40%, donde en el anlisis econmico es ligeramente mayor que 40% mientras que en el anlisis
financiero es ligeramente menor que el 40%, cumpliendo as que el proyecto es mas rentable en el
anlisis financiero debido a la palanca financiera.

11