"

&

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'

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'

'

'

&

'

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&

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a r a s c X i V ` t u p v X Y e Y u w w Y V r V p Y y Y p Y b Y e u W

Figure 1: Asia relative to the world

190 EM Asia / World

170
w r m r x r u m w k l

150 130

110
w

APx J / World 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

90
p r u w o o w u x m x l n w u o x r w r r v s r n r t t r m o w o l q z r n t r n l r x n o q v q l u q l q l l z

Table 1: Regional Model Portfolio Changes

Purchases
APxJ China Pacific Insurance, Trinity, Hyundai Heavy, Samsung Eng, EDC, Mandiri, PTTEP, Catcher, Chroma, Mega Holdings, ANZ, Wesfarmers, Boral, Computershare, Amcor, AGL Energy, DBS

Source: Bloomberg, 7 March 2011.

Sales
Lenovo, Unicom, ICBC, Ports Design, China High Speed, LG Chem, Lotte, Hyundai Department, Phil Stock Exch, XL Axiata, Yuanta, Mediatek, Pegatron, Quanta, Westfield, Singapore Exch, Swire, Cathay Pacific, HKEx

Source: J.P. Morgan

J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

See page 26 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.

Figure 1: Oil intensity

"

Tons per US$1M GDP



400 350 300 250

&

'

&

200 150 100 50 0

Thailand Indonesia Malay sia Philippines 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2010), CEIC.

Table 10: ASEAN net oil demand

2007
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore* Thailand



Million bbls/year 2008 2009

-104 107 -97 -103 -234 -118 99 -97 -116 -236

2010
-154 193 -105 -135 -286

US$ bn/year Oil trade Impact, balance** US$bn~

-11.1 9.4 -9.1 -12.1 -22.3 -1.54 1.93 -1.05 -1.35 -2.86

-111 103 -109 -34 -248

Source: J.P. Morgan economics. *Change in oil balance from US$10/bbl/year. **Based on US$90/bbl/year. ~J.P. Morgan estimates

7 8  

B C D

'

3 D

'

H D

'

Table 11: Performance of EM during sharp oil price moves in 2008

Country

Performance 28 Feb-11 Jul 12 Jul-9 Sep

-1.4 -6.9 -9.5 -10.8 -36.2 -28.1 -7.3 -6.5

 

"

"

Russia Brazil South Africa Mexico

S T U

FTSE ASEAN EM
Taiwan China Korea

 

S U

Thailand Malaysia Indonesia

India

-19.4 -20.1 -22.2 -31.6

-31.5

-14 -14.8 -15.4

-11.1 -12.5

-10.3 -12.2 -17.2 10.6

4.7

-15.3 -15.2 -14.8

-13.3 -16.7

Philippines
Q

Source: Bloomberg. Between 28 February and 11 July 2008, Brent crude increased by 43%, while falling 31% between 12 July and 9 September 2008. Table has been sorted by performance during 28 February-11 July 2008.

4 

Table 12: Global and Asian Markets performance

in US$ term
Global USA Europe Asia Pacific Asia ex Japan Pacific Pacific ex Japan EMF Asia Emerging Markets Japan Australia China Hong Kong India

Performance (%) 1-mth 3-mth

1.07 2.24 1.48 -0.89 -2.96 1.43 0.10 -4.98 -3.21 2.21 3.17 -4.17 -6.15 -6.51 -6.40 6.66 10.11 9.92 4.79 1.19 8.50 5.41 -1.55 0.04 10.38 9.27 -5.48 -1.65 -8.97

12-mth
14.85 19.97 15.26 16.96 18.70 16.51 19.70 18.05 19.13 14.85 19.69 6.53 20.78 7.63 29.58 8.65

YTD
2.95 4.95 8.43 -0.61 -3.59 2.37 -0.23 -5.79 -4.51 3.96 1.43 -3.93 -2.73 -15.25

1-mth

Relative Performance to AP x J (%) 3-mth 12-mth

YTD

Indonesia
Korea

3.20

-9.20
3.79 1.98

25.81 30.89 16.83

20.07 23.87

-5.74
-3.41 -7.19 -4.57 -5.86

-1.25 -3.29 -3.66 -3.54 -7.81 -1.53 -4.02

6.35

-6.60 -2.81 -10.04 2.56 0.77

-10.27 0.31 -9.21

-2.46 3.94

-10.25 1.76 -9.32

6.00
9.17

-0.36 0.89 -12.10

-2.23
0.18 -3.74 -1.02 -2.36

Malaysia
Pakistan

Philippines
Singapore Taiwan

-10.54

-2.97 -4.73
-4.44 -6.86

1.51 -8.13
-1.30 5.18

-1.49 -12.01 -4.60

-0.01 -1.82 8.42

10.28
-8.47 1.16 4.36

2.17

-1.57 23.87

-8.74 -1.05

Thailand

5.21

-1.99

47.03

-3.15

Source: Bloomberg

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A   

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$ $ $ # R

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Figure 17: Indonesia Emerging Market Fund Positions relative to Neutral weight
1.5

1.0

0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0

-1.5 -2.0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Source: EPFR Global

Figure 18: Thailand Emerging Market Fund Positions relative to Neutral weight
3.0

2.0
@ 

1.0

 ` Y

0.0 -1.0

-2.0

-3.0 -4.0 -5.0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

 Q

"

Source: EPFR Global