China’s Five-year Plans and Economic

Development Policies

Wang Yongzhong
Institute of World Economics and Politics(IWEP),
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(CASS)
 Contents

• The Stylized Facts of China's Economy

• The Basic Course of China's Reform
• The Basic Course of China's Opening-up
• Five-Year Plans
• Summary of Experience
 I. The stylized facts of China's economy
• Over the past 40 years, China's export-oriented economic growth
model has achieved great success in promoting export and economic
growth.
• At present, China's GDP is second only to the United States in the
world, with the contribution rate to global economic growth reaching
30%, beyond the total of the United States, the Eurozone and Japan,
ranking first in the world and becoming the "engine" of world
economic recovery.
• China is the world's largest trading nation and exporter. It has
amassed the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world.
• Associated with its reputation as the "world factory", China is also the
world's largest producer of manufactured goods, fixed assets investor,
consumer of energy and raw materials and emitter of carbon dioxide.
 China's GDP

GDP (bn RMB) GDP per capita (RMB)

120,000 90,000

80,000
100,000
70,000

80,000 60,000

50,000
60,000
40,000

40,000 30,000

20,000
20,000
10,000

0 0
52
57
62
67
72
77
82
87
92
97
02
07
12
17

52
57
62
67
72
77
82
87
92
97
02
07
12
17
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20

19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20

20
Countries have a higher GDP per capita than world
average($10500) in 2020
 China’s Economic Performance in 1952-1978
• Closed, rural and agriculture dominated economy
• Central planned economy
• Natural Disaster Years (1959-1961): Great Leap in industry development; Food shortage
• Ten-year cultural revolution: disorder in politics and society; collapsed economy
• Establish a relative complete system in manufacturing industry
• Lessons for next 40 years reform and opening -up

China's GDP and Its Growth

400 25%
GDP(RMBbn) Nominal Growth Rate
350 20%

15%
300
10%
250
5%
200
0%
150
-5%
100
-10%
50 -15%

0 195219531954195519561957195819591960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978
-20%
 Economic Structure Evolution (1952-1978)
55%

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%
9 5 2 95 3 95 4 9 5 5 9 5 6 95 7 9 5 8 9 5 9 96 0 9 6 1 9 6 2 96 3 9 6 4 9 6 5 96 6 9 6 7 9 6 8 96 9 9 7 0 9 7 1 9 7 2 9 7 3 9 7 4 97 5 9 7 6 9 7 7 9 7 8
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Primary Industry Secondary Industry Tertiary Industry

 Critical Events During the Reforms and Open-up

• Household responsibility system starting in rural areas in November 1978

• Deng’s speech at CPC conference in December 1978
• Create four special economic zones in 1980
• Socialist commodity economy endorsed in 1984
• Former Soviet Union collapsed and big shock in Eastern European
countries in 1989-1990
• Deng’s tour to South and socialist market economy in 1992
• Asian Financial crisis and SOE reform (grab the big and let go the small) in
1997
• Join in WTO in 2001
• Global financial crisis in 2008
• New Era in 2012
• Sino-US trade war since 2018
• Cronavirus pandemic in 2020-2021
 Inflation Vs Growth: two targets
25%
GDP Growth Rate
CPI
20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
9 79 98 1 9 8 3 9 85 98 7 98 9 9 91 99 3 99 5 9 9 7 99 9 0 01 0 03 00 5 0 0 7 0 09 01 1 01 3 0 15 01 7
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
-5%
 Economic Structure Evolution (1978-2018)
60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
7 8 8 0 8 2 8 4 8 6 8 8 9 0 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 8 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 6 1 8
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Primary Industry Secondary Industry Tertiary Industry

 Economic Growth Contribution

contribution to GDP Growth(%) share to GDP Growth(%)

10
100

8
80

6
60

4
40

2
20

0 0
78

96

08
11
14
17
81
84
87
90
93

99
02
05

84

90
93

99
02

08

17
78
81

87

96

05

11
14
19
19
19
19
19
19
19

20
20
20
20
19
20
20

19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20

(2)
Primary Industry
Tertiary Industry
20
20
(20)
Secondary Industry Primary Industry Secondary Industry
Tertiary Industry
 Economic Growth Contributors

Share to GDP Growth (%) Contribution to GDP growth(%)

150 12

10

100 8

50 4

0 0

84
87
90

02
05
08

14
17
78
81

93
96
99

11
78
81

90
93

05
08

17
84
87

96
99
02

11
14

19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
(2)

(50) (4)

(6)

(100) (8)

Final Consumption Expenditure Final Consumption Expenditure

Gross Capital Formation Gross Capital Formation
Net Export of Goods and Service Net Export of Goods and Service
 RMB/USD and China's FX Reserve ($bn)
10.00 4500

9.00 4000
RMB/USD FX Reserve
8.00 3500
7.00
3000
6.00
2500
5.00
2000
4.00
1500
3.00

2.00 1000

1.00 500

0.00 0
9 5 7 9 5 9 96 2 9 6 4 96 7 96 9 9 7 2 97 4 97 7 9 7 9 9 82 9 84 9 87 9 89 9 9 2 9 9 4 9 97 9 9 9 0 0 2 00 4 00 7 0 0 9 01 2 0 1 4 0 1 7
1 /1 7/1 1/1 7/1 1/1 7/1 1/1 7/1 1/1 7/1 1/1 7/1 1/1 7/1 1/1 7/1 1/1 7/1 1/2 7/2 1/2 7/2 1/2 7/2 1/2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
 China‘s foreign trade ($100mn)
100 1200
Export Export
1000
80 Import Import
Balance 800 Balance
60 600

40 400

200
20
0
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 8 6 8 7 88 89 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3
0 -200 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 -400
(20)

30000
Export
25000
Import
Balance
20000

15000

10000

5000

0
94 995 996 99 7 9 98 9 99 000 001 00 2 0 03 0 04 005 006 0 07 0 08 009 010 01 1 0 12 0 13 014 0 15 0 16 017 018
19 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
 20
40
60
80

0
100
120
140
160
180
200
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
FDI(bn USD)

20
07
20
10
20
13
20
16
20
19
100
120
140
160
180
200

0
20
40
60
80

20
0
20 6
0
20 7
0
20 8
0
20 9
1
China's FDI and ODI

20 0
1
20 1
1
20 2
1
20 3
1
20 4
1
20 5
ODI (bn USD)

1
20 6
1
20 7
1
20 8
1
20 9
2
20 0
21
 II. The basic course of China's reform
• Gradual reform
• Incremental reform
• Experimental reform
• Decentralization and Incentives
• The reform of the economic system has been carried out in an
all-round way from the countryside to cities and from economic
field to other fields.
• It can be roughly divided into four stages: "goal exploration",
"frame construction", "system improvement" and "new
exploration"
 Gradual Reforms
• Reforms in China developed only gradually, starting in the
rural areas with the household responsibility system and
township and village enterprises, and some initial steps
to open up the economy to foreign trade and investment,
which only started to play a significant role in the 1990s.
• Gradual also were the moves on the financial sector and
State Owned Enterprise (SOE) reform, which gained
momentum only in the mid‐1990s.
• “Crossing the river by feeling the stones” became China’s
mode of economic reform, implementing partial reforms
in an experimental manner, often starting in a few
regions, and expanding them upon proven success.
 Reasons for gradual reforms
• Gradualism was a means to reduce political resistance
against reforms.
• Gradual, experimental reform was a pragmatic approach in a
heavily distorted environment in which “first best” solutions
were unlikely to apply.
• Experimental reforms allowed the authorities to gather
information on the effects of reforms that could not be
anticipated.
• It is necessary to develop and test the administrative
procedures and complementary policies needed to
implement the reforms. With proven success, the
experiment could be expanded to other regions and sectors.
 Decentralization and Incentives
• Household Contract responsibility system
• Enterprises Contract responsibility system
• The provinces and local governments received increasing authority over
investment approvals, fiscal resources, and policies.
• The fiscal reforms, the tax contracting system, which known as “Eating from
Separate Kitchens,” which gave strong incentives for growth to subnational
governments by leaving much of the incremental revenues in the provinces. The
growing control over resources by local officials provided them with the incentives
to pursue the reforms and attract the investments needed to promote
growth(Hofman,2018).
• Within the party, the personnel promotion system was largely based on achieving
growth. The dominant criteria for promotion were growth itself, creation of
employment, and attraction of domestic and foreign Investment. This environment
provided a strong incentive for growth.
• This distributed the benefits of reforms to a large part of the population as well as
to local government and party officials, who therefore had strong incentives to
pursue growth and promote a market economy (Qian and Weingast 1997).
 Startup and goal exploration of reform
• The reform started from the countryside and then advanced gradually to
cities. Pilot reform was first carried out to accumulate experience, and
then was popularized gradually. Opening up has progressed from
establishing special economic zones to opening up the coastal areas, the
areas along the Yangtze River and even inland areas.
• In terms of rural reform, Anhui and other areas pioneered the household
contract responsibility system.
• In terms of enterprise reform, various forms of pilots have been carried
out to expand state-owned enterprises' autonomy, and collective economy
and individual economy were gradually restored and developed.
• In terms of financial and taxation system, we carried out two-step "tax for
profits" and gradually advanced the financial restructuring of "dividing
revenue and expenditure of central government and deciding
responsibility at different areas."
• In 1980, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Shantou and Xiamen special economic zones
were established.
• China implemented reform measures such as contracting and leasing
systems in state-owned enterprises, and actively carried out
management system reforms in enterprise leadership, distribution
and employment, with factory director responsibility system, linking
pay to performance, and labor contract system as contents, so as to
increase the internal vitality of enterprises.
• In terms of macro-management system, the reform in price, fiscal
taxation, finance, planning and circulation system was carried out
with macro indirect management as the goal.
• We adopted the policy of "adjusting, releasing and undertaking" to
rationalize the price relations between goods and services, sharply
reduced mandatory plans, reformed the organizational system of
banks, and implemented various forms of fiscal responsibility
system.
• Fourteen coastal port cities were opened up and a number of open
economic zones were developed.
 Establishment of socialist market economy framework
• By 2002, the basic framework of socialist market economy system had
been initially established.
• In the reform of state-owned enterprises, the 15th National Congress of the
CPC established the basic economic system of retaining a dominant
position for the public sector and developing diverse forms of ownership
side by side. According to the direction of establishing modern enterprise
system, we implemented the policy of "restructuring major enterprises and
relaxing control over small ones" to actively promote the reform of state-
owned enterprises and restructure the state-owned economy distribution.
• The market system developed greatly, the double-track price system of the
means of production was abolished, the control for the price of competitive
goods and services was further lifted, and the factor market took shape
gradually.
• In the construction of social security system, we gradually established the
pension and medical insurance system combining social pooling with
individual accounts, as well as unemployment insurance, social relief and
the subsistence allowance system for urban residents.
 Improvement of socialist market economy system
• The taxes on agriculture, animal husbandry and special products were
abolished.
• We sorted out and revised laws, regulations and policy provisions that restrict
the development of the non-public sector, relaxed market access for the non-
public sector, and allowed the non-public capital to enter the industries and
areas not prohibited by laws and regulations.
• The public finance system was continuously improved.
• The joint-stock system reform of state-owned commercial banks was
accelerated.
• The managed floating exchange rate system was adopted.
• The investment system was reformed, so that the government investment
scope was further narrowed, and enterprises' autonomy in investment was
gradually expanded.
• Factor markets such as land, labor, technology, property rights and capital
further developed, and the price marketization of important resources such as
water, electricity, oil and natural gas has accelerated.
• The social security system was continuously improved, and its coverage was
continuously expanded.
 2.4 New stage of comprehensively deepening reform
• In 2012, the 18th National Congress of the CPC was held. Reform was no
longer limited to restructuring the economy, but was the comprehensive
reform covering social, political, cultural and ecological civilization.
• The Central Leading Group for Comprehensively Continuing Reform set up
seven special groups for this purpose.
• The Central Leading Group for Comprehensively Continuing Reform had
held 38 meetings, the contents of which covered topics such as the reform on
the rural collective land system, the judicial system, and the fiscal and tax
system.
• It issued the Opinions on Trials of Rural Land Requisitions, Marketing Rural
Collective Land for Development Purposes, and Reforming the System of
Rural Residential Land, the Pilot Plan for the Establishment of People's
Courts and People's Procuratorates Across Administrative Boundaries,
Decisions on Furthering the Household Registration Reform, and the
General Plan for Deepening the Reform of Fiscal and Tax System.
III. The Course of China's Opening-up

• Before China's accession to the WTO (1978-

2000)
• Since China's accession to the WTO (2001-
2012)
• Opening-up in the new period (since 2012)
 Before China's accession to the WTO (1978-2000)

• The Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee held in

December 1978 opened a new chapter in China's economic development.
• It was a critical period of economic transformation during 1978-1985. China
set up special economic zones and adjusted the overvalued exchange rate
system. The policies to develop processing trade, encourage exports and
attract technologically advanced and export-oriented FDI were also
introduced.
• In 1986-1991, China introduced a special policy to encourage Hong Kong,
Macao and Taiwan to invest in the mainland, which further created
conditions for the transfer of labor-intensive industries from these areas to
the Pearl River Delta.
• In 1992-2000, with the issuance of Deng Xiaoping's South Tour Speeches,
China's opening-up had entered a new stage. Tariff level fell from 40% in
1994 to around 15% in 2000. China's export-oriented economy pattern had
basically taken shape. Foreign trade, the introduction of foreign capital and
foreign economic and technological cooperation boomed.
 China's accession to the WTO (2001-2012)
• In 2001, China's accession to the WTO opened a new stage for the great
development of its export-oriented economy. In order to join the WTO, China
has conducted the marathon negotiations for more than 15 years, made
substantial tariff cuts, and promised to gradually abolish non-tariff measures.
• The opening up of four new areas of investment, namely
telecommunications, banking, insurance and professional services, offers new
possibilities for FDI (foreign direct investment) entry. In these four areas,
China had previously strictly prohibited FDI entry or imposed strict
restrictions on the scope and territory of their operations. After joining WTO,
China will gradually remove these restrictions: within 2-3 years, restrictions
on equity ratio will be relaxed; within 5-6 years, restrictions on type or
territory of business will be lifted, thereby creating favorable conditions for
the entry of foreign capital.
• China's accession to the WTO has greatly improved the business environment
of multinational corporations and their direct investment in China.
• China's accession into the WTO is a milestone event of China's opening-up. It not only
indicates that China's opening-up has been greatly improved and its scope has been
continuously expanded, but also implies that China has begun to implement non-
discriminatory treatment (i.e. most-favored-nation treatment and national treatment) to
domestic and foreign products under the restraint of the WTO's Dispute Settlement
Mechanism and under the supervision of various WTO members.
• The 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward the idea of
"opening wider to the outside world to form a multi-level, multi-channel and all-round
pattern of opening-up". The Third Plenary Session of the 14th Central Committee of
the Communist Party of China brought forward the idea of "developing an open
economy so that the domestic economy and the international economy can be
interconnected and complementary". The report of the 15th National Congress of the
Communist Party of China once again stressed the need to "improve the all-round,
multi-level and wide-ranging pattern of opening-up to develop an open economy". In
the report of the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the goal of
building a well-off society in an all-around way is to build a "more vigorous and open
economic system", implement the "going global" strategy, and encourage and support
foreign investment by enterprises of various ownership with comparative advantages.
The 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China came up with
"expanding the breadth and depth of opening-up and improving the level of open
economy".
 Opening-up in the new period (since 2012)
• The 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China
pointed out that in order to "comprehensively improve the level of
the open economy," the core is to boost the mutual promotion
between the opening to the domestic market and the opening to the
outside world, and the second is to better integrate the "bring in" and
"going global".
• The China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone was officially listed on
September 29, 2013. Its goal is to build a pilot free trade zone
boasting international-level convenient investment and trade, free
currency exchange, efficient and convenient supervision, and
standardized legal environment.
• Measures for the management of Pre-establishment National
Treatment and Negative List. Except for the Negative List, the
examination of foreign-invested projects and approval of contracts
and articles of enterprises all adopt the filing system.
• The Belt and Road Initiative marks a new stage in China's opening-up.
OFDI (outward foreign direct investment) motivation: seeking for resource
and energy, market, efficiency, strategic asset (science and technology).
Cross-border credit (facilitating surplus domestic infrastructure
construction capacity in seeking market, insufficient payment capacity of
host countries)
• The Belt and Road Initiative motivation: balancing TPP (Trans -Pacific
Partnership Agreement), economy and trade diversification (over-
dependence on developed countries), replicating China's experience in
infrastructure construction (local government borrowing - infrastructure
construction - attracting foreign investment - rising land prices and
employment taxes - more investment of infrastructure construction), and
digesting excess capacity of China's manufacturing and infrastructure
construction sectors
• To revise the Foreign Investment Law, thus establishing a new
management system integrating Pre-establishment National Treatment and
Negative List for foreign investment to step up efforts to protect foreign
investment.
 China's Measures to Expand Financial Opening-up
On April 10, 2018, President Xi Jinping announced at the Boao Forum for Asia four major measures to expand
opening-up: significantly broadening the market access, creating a more attractive investment environment,
strengthening protection of intellectual property rights and taking initiative to expand imports.
In terms of industry field, establishment of institutions and business scope, China's measures to expand its
opening-up in the financial sector in the new era mainly lie in:
• I. Specify the sectors that are encouraged to attract foreign investment, such as trust, financial leasing,
automotive finance, money broking and consumer finance; and require implementation by the end of 2018.
• II. Lift or relax the restrictions on the foreign ownership, including: abolish the restrictions on the
proportion of foreign-invested shares of Chinese banks and financial asset management companies, imposing
equal proportion restrictions for Chinese and foreign investors; ease the proportion limitations on foreign
ownership in securities, funding management, futures and life insurance companies to 51%, and entirely lift
the limit after three years; no limit of foreign ownership in newly-established financial asset management
companies and wealth management companies.
• III. Greatly relax and abolish the restrictions on the establishment of foreign-funded financial institutions
and their branches, including: allow foreign banks to set up branches and sub-branches in China; no longer
require joint-stock securities companies to have at least one securities company among their domestic
shareholders; and no longer require foreign-invested insurance companies to maintain a Representative
Office in China for two years prior to their establishment.
• IV. Expand the business scope of foreign financial institutions, including: allow qualified foreign investors
to operate insurance agency business and insurance assessment business in China; expand the business
scope of foreign-funded insurance brokers to be the same of Chinese-funded ones; significantly expand the
business scope of foreign-funded banks; and remove the limit of business scope of joint-stock securities
companies, and impose equal rules on domestic and foreign investors.
 5. Five-Year Plans
What are the five-year plans?
• The FYPs are a set of social and economic development initiatives that
map out China's strategies for growth in a five-year period. The
blueprint lays out detailed targets and guidelines covering economic,
social, educational and environmental matters. The primary objectives
contain targets for economic growth, directions for economic reforms
and industrial restructuring.
• The plans usually include numerical growth targets such as annual
gross domestic product (GDP) goals and offer policy guidelines for
reforms. For example, the 13th FYP (2016-2020) set an average
annual growth target of around 6.5 percent.
• Since the release of the first five-year plan in 1953, China has
published 14 such documents, though the official name for the last
four programs changed from "five-year plan" to "five-year guideline"
to reflect a much more market-oriented economy. Also, the covered
fields of the FYPs has expanded from economy to economy and
society in 7th FYP.
 How are the five-year plans drafted?

• The drafting of the FYPs is a long and refined process. For instances, the preparation
for the 13th FYP (2015-2020) started as early as August of 2013, when the nation's top
economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)
initiated the mid-term review of the previous FYP. The assessment of collected
information on progress of the 12th FYP and gave direction to what will be addressed
in the next FYP.
• The NDRC began formulating the 13th FYP in April 2014 and released 25 major areas
including economy, education, and environmental protection to be researched by
industry experts, university scholars, and other think tanks. The public was also
encouraged to give suggestions through the Chinese social media network WeChat.
• Based on public comments and extensive research, the NDRC submitted a report of
general thoughts concerning the FYP to the CPC Central Committee. A separate team
organized by the CPC Central Committee will take the thoughts into consideration and
draft a report of recommendations to be discussed at the four-day fifth plenary
session of the CPC.
• The NDRC will then finalize the FYP based on the recommendations, further expert
suggestions and public comments. The final FYP needs to be approved by the National
People's Congress, the country's top legislature, during meetings in next March.
 Evolution of China’s FYPs
• The first FYP. After the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, China's economy
went through a recovery period. In 1953, the central government launched its first FYP (1953-
1957), which aimed at turning China from an agricultural country into an advanced industrial
country with a focus on the development of the heavy industry. China’s first Five-Year Plan
stressed rapid industrial development, with Soviet assistance and proved highly successful.
• From the second to the fifth FYPs, the Chinese government was in an exploring period of
setting up and implementing its own medium- to long-term development guidelines. The goals
went through constant adjustment along with the accumulated knowledge and experience.
• The 2nd-6th FYPs put emphasis on agricultural and industrial development. China's early
FYPs once set specific production quotas, for instance, for steel and grain.
• The second FYP (1958-1963) carried on the industrial development centered on heavy
industry. In 1958, the Great Leap Forward was announced, its goals conflicted with the five-
year plan, leading to failure and the withdrawal of Soviet aid in 1960.
• The major tasks of the third one (1966-1970) were to develop agriculture and strengthen basic
industries.
• The fourth (1971-1975) set goals for output of agriculture and industry and investment in
infrastructure.
• The fifth FYP (1976-1980) set up a goal of building up an independent and relatively complete
industrial system.
• Since the early 1980s, as China was in the process of establishing a
socialist market economy as part of its socialism with Chinese
characteristics, the role of the plans has been relaxed, with most
numerical targets abandoned. The sixth FYP (1981-1985) mainly
focused on adjustment and solving the problems of previous plans.
• The seventh FYP (1986-1990) hatched up to build a foundation for a
new socialist economic system with Chinese characteristics.
• The eighth FYP (1991-1995) put industrial restructuring in priority,
and further promoted the development of technology, education and
foreign trade.
• Major objective of the ninth FYP (1996-2000) included establishing
preliminarily a socialist market economy and further upgrading
industrial structure.
• The 10th FYP (2001-2005) aimed to build a relatively complete social
security system and make significant progress in establishing a
modern enterprise system in state-owned enterprises.
• In recent years, the plans have been not just economic in focus.
Much attention is also given to a wider range of priorities including
environmental protection - targets for cutting carbon emissions
and optimizing energy use - and to social welfare programs such as
health security and job creation.
• The 11th (2006-2010) proposed to optimize and upgrade the
industrial structure and improve resource utilization.
• The 12th (2011-2015) purposed to increase input in education and
science and technology and set goals for environmental protection.
• The 13th (2016-2020) put forward to use innovation to drive
development, and emphasize mid-high economic growth (New
Normal), industrial structural adjustment, poverty alleviation and
people's lives all improving.
• The 14th (2021-2025) and long-range objectives for 2035.
Although the Five-Year Plan contains relatively few
quantitative targets, it details a vast array of near-term PRC
economic, trade, S&T, defense, political, social, cultural,
environmental, and other policy priorities. The 14th Five-Year
Plan differs from past plans in that it also includes a short
section on “long-range objectives” for 2035.
 Costa Rica

12238
Chile
Poland
Palau

Source: Cai (2021)

Uruguay
Trinidad and Tobago
Antigua and Barbuda
Barbados

Targeted Country
Lithuania
Greece

Portugal, Advanced country

Czech Republic
Portugal

23145
Costa Rica, High income country
Bahrain
Slovenia
Cyprus
Malta
Brunei Darussalam
Kuwait
Bahamas, The
Guam
Japan
Andorra
United Kingdom
Israel
高收入国家的人均GDP（美元）

Canada
San Marino
Hong Kong SAR,…
Sweden
New development target ：

Greenland
Faroe Islands
Qatar
Singapore
Norway
High income country in 2025; Advanced country in 2035

Isle of Man
Macao SAR, China
Luxembourg
Monaco
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
 If China’s GDP double at 2025, the annual growth rate
should be at least 4.73%

正常速度：4.85% 改革红利：4.99%
25000 25000
$22999
$21731

20000 20000

15000 $13852 15000 $14129

10000 10000

5000 5000

0 0
2020

2023
2024

2026

2029

2032
2033

2035
2021
2022

2025

2027
2028

2030
2031

2034

2020
2021

2023
2024

2026

2029
2030
2031
2032

2035
2022

2025

2027
2028

2033
2034
Source ：
Cai （ 2021 ）
 China's GDP may not surpass the US
China’s population growth (zero or negative growth) slower than that of
the United States (positive growth),
China’s GDP will be lower than that of the United States due to aging after
China’s GDP is highly close to the United States, and the economic gap
between China and the United States will gradually widen again.
OECD predicts that China's economic growth rate will be lower than that of
the United States after 2040

资料来源：
OECD （ 2019 ）
 Completion of China’s FYPs

Share of Average value of

FYPs Indicators
completion(%) completion(%)
1 32 84.4 136
2 21 0 21
3 51 46.9 101
4 52 34.6 88
5 16 31.3 90
6 33 84.8 178
7 28 71.4 119
8 27 92.6 267
9 16 75 144
10 45 64.3 104
11 22 90.9 132
12 24 95.8
 Procedures for Local FYPs

• (1) FYPs program established

• Base on the relevant policies and specific regulations of higher
authorities, combine the requirements of economic development and
social life of the region, select planning tasks.
• (2) Organizing the team of experts in different fields
• (3) Collect relevant information
• Formulate specific research and data collection plans, labor division, list
timetables, systematically collect social and economic information, and
interview experts from enterprises, ministries, and superior authorities.
• (4) Evaluation of the original plan
• The previous plan may expire and the development plan needs to be re-
formulated;
• some problems were discovered in the implementation of the previous
plans, which required problem solving and planning revisions;
• huge changes in the external environment during the implementation,
and the plan needs to be readjusted.
• (5) Preparation of the draft plan
• Discussed, reviewed and revised by team members, and studied and discussed by
experts, and confirmed and released after a specific procedure.
• (6) Close integration of various FYPs
• Based on the existing planning, research national and regional policies, study the global
and national economic situation and development trends, integrate special plans and
overall plans, and analyze whether the five-year plan is consistent with national policies
and laws.
• Whether the major planning guidelines and implementation measures established in the
overall plan have been extended and detailed in the special plan.
• Whether the special plan meets the core requirements of the overall plan in terms of
guiding ideology, development goals, specific tasks, and policy measures.
• Whether the content of the plan reflects the spirit and specific direction of the overall
plan.
• Whether the plan at this level is connected with the plan at the upper level, etc.
• (7) Listening opinions
• absorb feedbacks and opinions from various experts and stakeholders, and modify
• (8) modification of the plans
• According to the opinions and feedbacks of all parties, the first draft shall be revised and
adjusted appropriately
• (9)Demonstration and argumentation of the plans
• Conduct expert argumentation and assessment before submission for review.
• The demonstration may be entrusted to the planning advisory committee at
the same level, or the planning preparation unit may organize the
demonstration by itself, and the unit that organizes the demonstration must
submit a demonstration report.
• Plans that have not been demonstrated shall not be submitted for approval
and announced for implementation.
• (10) Submission for approval
• Five-year plans or special plans, etc., are drafted by the planning preparation
unit, and after being reviewed by the commission or bureau of development
and reform at the corresponding level, the commission of development and
reform and the preparation unit at the same level report to the people's
government for approval.
• If it needs to be submitted to the National People's Congress for approval, the
relevant approval procedures shall be implemented.
• After review and approval, it will be released and promulgated by governments
at relevant levels or departments.
• (11) Public release of plans
• The five-year plan outline is released after the examination and
approval procedure.
• The special plan is approved and issued by the government at the same
level or by an authorized department.
• (12)Conduct planning evaluation
• The five-year plan or special plan may organize an evaluation in the
mid-stage of the plan's implementation.
• Report the evaluation results to the people's government or relevant
departments at the same level.
• (13) Revision and abolition
• When it is necessary to revise and abolish the original plan after mid-
term evaluation or other reasons, the planning preparation unit shall
propose a plan for revision and abolition, and submit it for approval and
public announcement in accordance with the planning procedures.
 5. Summary of Experience
• Labour force: hard working and high-quality
• The high household saving rate has driven the original accumulation of capital
• Gradual and incremental reform has aroused the incentives of residents,
enterprises and local government officials
• Adhere to the opening-up policy and give foreign investors super-national
treatment (tax exemption, low land cost or even zero)
• Promote infrastructure investment, such as roads, railways, airports,
electricity and water conservancy facilities, thus giving a strong boost to
economic growth.
• The stability and coherence of the Chinese government's economic
development policy
• An overall stable and loose international environment: overseas Chinese,
international industrial transfer and stable development of globalization.
• Pay too much attention to the growth of GDP but neglect environmental
protection
Thank you!