A partir del anlisis de los resultados por partidos

en las parlamentarias 2010

Juan Luis Hernndez M

Diciembre 2011
1

Estimacin de porcentajes de los candidatos con

los votos totales de los partidos que los apoyan
Estimacin de votos por candidato con 37% de
Participacin y distribucin de los votos de los
partidos no definidos
Estimacin de los votos por candidatos con
trasvase de votos de H. Capriles y P. Prez a M.C.
Machado y L. Lpez
Estimacin de los votos por candidatos con
trasvase de votos de P. Prez a H. Capriles

Escenarios de Primarias 2012

Por Estado y Candidato Votos Totales
Alianza
(Multiple Items)
Eleccin
2010 Nom
Votos
Row Labels
EDO. ZULIA
EDO. MIRANDA
DTTO. CAPITAL
EDO. CARABOBO
EDO. LARA
EDO. ARAGUA
EDO. ANZOATEGUI
EDO. TACHIRA
EDO. BOLIVAR
EDO. MERIDA
EDO. FALCON
EDO. SUCRE
EDO. BARINAS
EDO. MONAGAS
EDO. GUARICO
EDO. NUEVA ESPARTA
EDO. PORTUGUESA
EDO. YARACUY
EDO. TRUJILLO
EDO. VARGAS
EDO. APURE
EDO. COJEDES
EDO. AMAZONAS
EDO. DELTA AMACURO
Total

Candidatos
E Capriles
48.641
334.773
215.005
113.388
268.063
221.871
149.254
34.014
125.335
29.276
31.565
51.748
16.296
20.565
46.739
22.532
33.099
23.939
14.381
18.446
7.830
9.052
25.022
3.301
1.864.135

L. Lopez
1.724
10.512
12.727
221.122
10.514
14.449
4.993
9.519
7.651
4.221
10.231
2.427
4.529
2.051
1.915
2.654
4.269
3.779
2.530
1.646
3.217
2.131
467
584
339.862

P. Perez
742.735
268.963
181.008
64.239
111.963
61.184
129.111
223.450
73.437
122.979
101.208
66.391
73.775
61.424
47.808
54.231
57.589
71.577
67.687
37.943
37.860
24.467
3.242
9.418
2.693.689

No
Definidos
44.215
91.784
110.332
98.014
38.456
43.841
49.849
30.183
47.063
30.851
29.945
39.513
38.427
40.205
19.897
34.532
16.558
10.190
18.908
10.626
14.330
9.291
3.778
5.739
876.527

Total
837.315
706.032
519.072
496.763
428.996
341.345
333.207
297.166
253.486
187.327
172.949
160.079
133.027
124.245
116.359
113.949
111.515
109.485
103.506
68.661
63.237
44.941
32.509
19.042
5.774.213

Escenarios de Resultados de las Primarias Presidenciales

Resultados con 37% de participacin pase de 70% de No Definidos HCR y 20% a PP
70%
Estado

Votos
Unidad

DTTO. CAPITAL
519,072
EDO. AMAZONAS
32,509
EDO. ANZOATEGUI
333,207
EDO. APURE
63,237
EDO. ARAGUA
341,345
EDO. BARINAS
133,027
EDO. BOLIVAR
253,486
EDO. CARABOBO
496,763
EDO. COJEDES
44,941
EDO. DELTA AMACURO
19,042
EDO. FALCON
172,949
EDO. GUARICO
116,359
EDO. LARA
428,996
EDO. MERIDA
187,327
EDO. MIRANDA
706,032
EDO. MONAGAS
124,245
EDO. NUEVA ESPARTA
113,949
EDO. PORTUGUESA
111,515
EDO. SUCRE
160,079
EDO. TACHIRA
297,166
EDO. TRUJILLO
103,506
EDO. VARGAS
68,661
EDO. YARACUY
109,485
EDO. ZULIA
837,315
Total
5,774,213

%
Votos P.
37%
Unidad
Votos Prim H Capriles Venezuel
Particip
2010
a
50%
51%
53%
37%
48%
43%
49%
54%
35%
26%
47%
45%
55%
50%
58%
37%
59%
32%
47%
50%
36%
44%
41%
55%
48%

38.6%
39.1%
40.7%
28.9%
36.7%
32.8%
37.5%
41.8%
26.7%
20.0%
36.0%
34.7%
42.4%
38.8%
44.6%
28.5%
45.2%
24.7%
36.6%
38.6%
27.8%
33.9%
31.4%
48.0%
37%

200,493
12,706
135,778
18,269
125,197
43,641
95,046
207,499
12,018
3,803
62,261
40,394
182,021
72,683
314,685
35,454
51,521
27,553
58,592
114,624
28,786
23,260
34,342
401,911
2,302,539
100%

112,878
10,813
75,038
5,160
92,632
14,171
59,348
76,021
4,160
1,462
18,909
21,061
125,159
19,738
177,848
13,899
21,117
11,042
29,065
21,270
7,680
8,769
9,746
38,204
975,190
42%

4,916
183
2,035
929
5,300
1,486
2,869
92,363
570
117
3,683
665
4,461
1,638
4,685
585
1,200
1,055
888
3,672
704
558
1,185
828
136,572
6%

20%
P. Perez
78,438
1,562
56,674
11,766
25,657
26,724
31,065
35,021
7,040
2,110
38,591
17,978
50,769
50,110
128,061
19,822
27,643
15,047
27,193
88,518
19,876
13,574
23,091
360,757
1,157,087
50%

10%
No
Definidos
4,262
148
2,031
414
1,608
1,261
1,765
4,094
248
115
1,078
691
1,632
1,197
4,091
1,147
1,561
409
1,446
1,164
526
360
320
2,122
33,689
1%

Resultados con Estimacin de Trasbase de HCR y PP a LL y MCM

Estado
DTTO. CAPITAL
EDO. AMAZONAS
EDO. ANZOATEGUI
EDO. APURE
EDO. ARAGUA
EDO. BARINAS
EDO. BOLIVAR
EDO. CARABOBO
EDO. COJEDES
EDO. DELTA AMACURO
EDO. FALCON
EDO. GUARICO
EDO. LARA
EDO. MERIDA
EDO. MIRANDA
EDO. MONAGAS
EDO. NUEVA ESPARTA
EDO. PORTUGUESA
EDO. SUCRE
EDO. TACHIRA
EDO. TRUJILLO
EDO. VARGAS
EDO. YARACUY
EDO. ZULIA
Total

% LL y
MCM
17%
5%
12%
7%
15%
7%
12%
40%
5%
5%
7%
7%
12%
10%
20%
7%
10%
7%
7%
10%
7%
10%
7%
7%

% Aporte
Votos LL y Menos
HCR a LL y
MCM
Votos PV
MCM
34,084
29,168
70%
635
453
50%
16,293
14,259
60%
1,279
349
50%
18,779
13,480
60%
3,055
1,569
50%
11,406
8,537
50%
82,999
-9,364
0%
601
31
50%
190
74
50%
4,358
675
50%
2,828
2,163
50%
21,842
17,381
60%
7,268
5,631
60%
62,937
58,252
70%
2,482
1,897
50%
5,152
3,952
60%
1,929
874
50%
4,101
3,213
50%
11,462
7,791
50%
2,015
1,311
50%
2,326
1,768
60%
2,404
1,219
50%
28,134
27,306
40%
328,561 191,989
14.3%
8.3%

H
Capriles
92,460
10,587
66,483
4,985
84,544
13,386
55,079
76,021
4,144
1,425
18,572
19,979
114,731
16,360
137,072
12,951
18,746
10,605
27,458
17,374
7,025
7,708
9,137
27,281
854,113
37.1%

P. Perez
69,688
1,336
50,970
11,591
20,265
25,940
26,797
44,384
7,024
2,073
38,253
16,897
43,816
47,858
110,586
18,874
26,062
14,610
25,587
84,623
19,220
12,866
22,481
344,374
1,086,175
47.2%

Otros

Total

4,262 200,493
148
12,706
2,031 135,778
414
18,269
1,608 125,197
1,261
43,641
1,765
95,046
4,094 207,499
248
12,018
115
3,803
1,078
62,261
691
40,394
1,632 182,021
1,197
72,683
4,091 314,685
1,147
35,454
1,561
51,521
409
27,553
1,446
58,592
1,164 114,624
526
28,786
360
23,260
320
34,342
2,122 401,911
33,689 2,302,539
1.5%
100.0%

Resultados con Estimacin de Trasbase de PP a HCR

Votos LL
Estado
HCR
P. Perez
y MCM
DTTO. CAPITAL
34,084
92,460
69,688
EDO. AMAZONAS
635
10,587
1,336
EDO. ANZOATEGUI
16,293
66,483
50,970
EDO. APURE
1,279
4,985
11,591
EDO. ARAGUA
18,779
84,544
20,265
EDO. BARINAS
3,055
13,386
25,940
EDO. BOLIVAR
11,406
55,079
26,797
EDO. CARABOBO
82,999
76,021
44,384
EDO. COJEDES
601
4,144
7,024
EDO. DELTA AMACURO
190
1,425
2,073
EDO. FALCON
4,358
18,572
38,253
EDO. GUARICO
2,828
19,979
16,897
EDO. LARA
21,842 114,731
43,816
EDO. MERIDA
7,268
16,360
47,858
EDO. MIRANDA
62,937 137,072 110,586
EDO. MONAGAS
2,482
12,951
18,874
EDO. NUEVA ESPARTA
5,152
18,746
26,062
EDO. PORTUGUESA
1,929
10,605
14,610
EDO. SUCRE
4,101
27,458
25,587
EDO. TACHIRA
11,462
17,374
84,623
EDO. TRUJILLO
2,015
7,025
19,220
EDO. VARGAS
2,326
7,708
12,866
EDO. YARACUY
2,404
9,137
22,481
EDO. ZULIA
28,134
27,281 344,374
Total
328,561 854,113 1,086,175
14.3%
37.1%
47.2%

Otros
4,262
148
2,031
414
1,608
1,261
1,765
4,094
248
115
1,078
691
1,632
1,197
4,091
1,147
1,561
409
1,446
1,164
526
360
320
2,122
33,689
1.5%

Total
200,493
12,706
135,778
18,269
125,197
43,641
95,046
207,499
12,018
3,803
62,261
40,394
182,021
72,683
314,685
35,454
51,521
27,553
58,592
114,624
28,786
23,260
34,342
401,911
2,302,539
100.0%

Paso PP H Capriles
P. Perez 2
a HCR
2
17%
104,307
57,841
0%
10,587
1,336
12%
72,599
44,854
0%
4,985
11,591
15%
87,584
17,225
0%
13,386
25,940
10%
57,759
24,117
10%
80,459
39,946
0%
4,144
7,024
0%
1,425
2,073
0%
18,572
38,253
0%
19,979
16,897
5%
116,921
41,625
10%
21,146
43,072
20%
159,189
88,469
0%
12,951
18,874
2%
19,267
25,541
0%
10,605
14,610
4%
28,482
24,563
10%
25,837
76,161
2%
7,409
18,836
7%
8,608
11,966
0%
9,137
22,481
4%
41,056
330,599
936,395 1,003,893
40.7%
43.6%

Dif 1

Dif 2

22,772
9,251
15,513
-6,606
64,280
-12,553
28,283
31,636
-2,880
-649
-19,681
3,083
70,914
-31,498
26,486
-5,923
-7,316
-4,005
1,872
-67,249
-12,196
-5,159
-13,344
-317,092
-232,062

46,466
9,251
27,746
-6,606
70,359
-12,553
33,642
40,513
-2,880
-649
-19,681
3,083
75,296
-21,926
70,720
-5,923
-6,274
-4,005
3,919
-50,324
-11,427
-3,357
-13,344
-289,542
-67,498

Aumento Dif
HCP
23,694
0
12,233
0
6,079
0
5,359
8,877
0
0
0
0
4,382
9,572
44,234
0
1,042
0
2,047
16,925
769
1,801
0
27,550
164,564