w1 0.

5
w2 0.3
w3 0.2

Simple Moving
X 2019 Demand FRLIN
Average

1 Enero 111,781 107,041

2 Febrero 100,454 113,783
3 Marzo 149,926 158,552
4 Abril 112,183 192,127 120,720
5 Mayo 92,920 192,280 120,854
6 Junio 101,031 191,815 118,343
7 Julio 105,770 191,547 102,045
8 Agosto 104,831 210,839 99,907
9 Setiembre 48,614 81,677 103,877
10 Octubre 191,149 202,328 86,405
11 Noviembre 195,466 199,856 114,864
12 Diciembre 183,507 202,824 145,076
13

Demand
250,000

200,000

150,000 f(x) = 5787.69675594406 x + 87182.502319697

R² = 0.212500346552456

100,000

50,000

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
 F1 110,000
α 0.7

Weighted Moving Exponential Linear MAD MAD

MAD FRLIN
Average Smoothing Regression SIMPLE WEIGHTED

110,000 92,971 4,740

111,247 98,758 13,330
103,692 104,546 8,625
127,455 136,057 110,334 79,945 8,538 15,273
121,160 119,345 116,122 99,360 27,934 28,240
110,100 100,848 121,909 90,784 17,313 9,070
100,828 100,976 127,697 85,777 3,725 4,942
101,778 104,332 133,485 106,009 4,924 3,052
104,352 104,681 139,272 33,064 55,263 55,739
76,910 65,434 145,060 11,179 104,744 114,239
131,125 153,435 150,848 4,390 80,602 64,341
164,800 182,857 156,635 19,317 38,431 18,707
183,312 46,377 37,941 34,845
Promedio

a 87,183
b 5,787.7
 MAD
MAD Linear
Exponential
Regression
Smoothing

1,781 18,810
10,794 1,695
46,235 45,380
23,875 1,849
26,425 23,201
183 20,879
4,794 21,927
499 28,654
56,068 90,659
125,715 46,089
42,031 44,618
650 26,872
28,254 30,886
Promedio