LABORATORIO 1

LEYDI MARIA ROMERO BACA

2023-12-13
rm(list=ls())

#ejercicio cadenas de mRKOW VIA MONTECARLO

p1 <- c(0.8,0.1,0.1)
p2 <- c(0.1,0.8,0.1)
p3 <- c(0.1,0.1,0.8)

Ptemp <- c(p1,p2,p3)

Ptemp

## [1] 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8

P <- matrix(Ptemp, nrow = 3, byrow = T)

P2 <- P%*%P
P2

## [,1] [,2] [,3]

## [1,] 0.66 0.17 0.17
## [2,] 0.17 0.66 0.17
## [3,] 0.17 0.17 0.66

P3 <- P2%*%P
P3

## [,1] [,2] [,3]

## [1,] 0.562 0.219 0.219
## [2,] 0.219 0.562 0.219
## [3,] 0.219 0.219 0.562

P4 <- P3%*%P
P4

## [,1] [,2] [,3]

## [1,] 0.4934 0.2533 0.2533
## [2,] 0.2533 0.4934 0.2533
## [3,] 0.2533 0.2533 0.4934

P5 <- P4%*%P
P5
## [,1] [,2] [,3]
## [1,] 0.44538 0.27731 0.27731
## [2,] 0.27731 0.44538 0.27731
## [3,] 0.27731 0.27731 0.44538

P6 <- P5%*%P
P6

## [,1] [,2] [,3]

## [1,] 0.411766 0.294117 0.294117
## [2,] 0.294117 0.411766 0.294117
## [3,] 0.294117 0.294117 0.411766

P7 <- P6%*%P
P7

## [,1] [,2] [,3]

## [1,] 0.3882362 0.3058819 0.3058819
## [2,] 0.3058819 0.3882362 0.3058819
## [3,] 0.3058819 0.3058819 0.3882362

#soleado def. ejerc

pi0 <- c(0,1,0)

pi0

## [1] 0 1 0

pi1 <- pi0%*%P

pi1

## [,1] [,2] [,3]

## [1,] 0.1 0.8 0.1

# repuestas al inciso a
pi2 <- pi0%*%P2
pi2

## [,1] [,2] [,3]

## [1,] 0.17 0.66 0.17

#si esta soleando cual es la probabilidad de que

#en los 7 días siguientes llueva
pi7 <- pi0%*%P7
pi7

## [,1] [,2] [,3]

## [1,] 0.3058819 0.3882362 0.3058819

La probabilidad de que llueva en los próximos 7 días es del 38%

#la probabilidad de que en los siguientes de qué

#en los siguientes 3 días este nublado
 pi0 <- c(0,0,1)
pi0

## [1] 0 0 1

pi3 <-pi0%*%P3
pi3

## [,1] [,2] [,3]

## [1,] 0.219 0.219 0.562

La probabilidad de que este nublado los próximos 3 días es del 56%