ETAPA 2

ETAPA 1
E 700
0.6
B 900
0.5 0.7 F 600
0.8
A 1000 0.6 C 800 0.6
0.7 G 500
0.8 0.8
D 700 0.6
0.7 H 400

I 300

0.3024 200

ETAPA 4 O P Q R S
J 0.5 0.7 0.9 - -
K - 0.5 0.7 0.9 -
L - - 0.5 0.7 0.9
M - - - 0.5 0.7
N - - - - 0.5

ETAPA 2 E F G H I
B 0.6*0.72=0.432 0.7*0.63=0.441 0.8*0.49=0.392
C 0.6*0.63=0.378 0.7*0.49=0.343 0.8*0.35=0.28
D 0.6*0.63=0.378 0.7*0.35=0.245

0 0 0
1 d(#galon) 1 d(#galon) 1
2 2 2
3 3 3

So= 6 S1= So - d(1) S2 = S1 - d(2)

Cliente 1 Cliente 2
3 0
 4 1
5 2
F(máx ingresos) 6 F(máx ingresos) 3

Venta 1 galon devolución Valor

Ingresos
2 0.5 esperadoIngresos

Valor
esperadoIngresos

Valor
esperadoIngresos
Cliente 3
Etapa 3 0 1 2 3
0 0 0 0 0
1 - 2 - -
2 - - 3.4 -
3 - - - 4.35

Cliente 2
Etapa 2 0 1 2 3
3 0+4.35=4.35 2+3.4=5.4 3.25+2=5.25 4.35+0=4.35
4 - 2+4.35=6.35 3.25+3.4=6.65 4.35+2=6.35
5 - - 3.25+4.35=7.6 4.35+3.4=7.75
6 - - - 4.35+4.35=8.7
ETAPA 3 ETAPA 4

0.7
0.8 J 600 0.5
0.9 0.7
0.7 0.9 O 400
0.8 K 500 0.5
0.9 0.7
0.7 0.9 P 300
0.8 L 400 0.5
0.7
0.7 0.9 Q 200
M 300 0.5
0.7
0.7 R 100
N 200

100 S 0

F(4) d(4) ETAPA 3 J K L

0.9 Q 3U E 0.7*0.9=0.63 - 0.8*0.9=0.72
0.9 R 3U F 0.7*0.9=0.63 -
0.9 S 3U G 0.7*0.9=0.63
0.7 S 2U H 0.7*0.7=0.49
0.5 S 1U I

F(2) d(2) ETAPA 1 B C D

0.441 G 2U A 0.5*0.441=0.2205 0.6*0.378=0.2268 0.8*0.378=0.3024
0.378 F 1U
0.378 G 1U RESPUESTA COMPONENTE 1 3 UNIDADES
COMPONENTE 2 1 UNIDAD
Máxima probabilidad es 30.24% COMPONENTE 3 1 UNIDAD
COMPONENTE 4 3 UNIDADES

d(#galon)

0
Cliente 3
F(máx ingresos)
CLIENTE 1
1 galon 2 galones 3 galones
0.6*2+0.4*2=2 0.6*2.5+0.4*4=3.1 0.6*3+0.4*6=4.2

CLIENTE 2
1 galon 2 galones 3 galones
0.5*2+0.1*2+0.4*2=2 0.5*2.5+0.1*4+0.4*4=3.25 0.5*3+0.1*4.5+0.4*6=4.35

CLIENTE 3
1 galon 2 galones 3 galones
0.4*2+0.3*2+0.3*2 = 2 0.4*2.5+0.3*4+0.3*4=3.4 0.4*3+0.3*4.5+0.3*6=4.35

F(3) d(3)
0
2 1
3.4 2
4.35 3

Fn+1 = F(Sn - dn)

F(2) d(2)
5.4 1
6.65 2
7.75 3
8.7 3
 M N F(3) d(3)
0.9*0.7=0.63 - 0.72 L 2U
0.8*0.7=0.560.9*0.5=0.45 0.63 k 1U
0.8*0.5=0.4 0.63 L 1U
0.7*0.7=0.49 0.49 M 1U
0.7*0.5=0.35 0.35 N 1U

F(1) d(1)
0.3024 D 3U