Está en la página 1de 13

Ingeniería e Investigación

ISSN: 0120-5609
revii_bog@unal.edu.co
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Colombia

Villamil Torres, Jaime Alberto; Delgado Rivera, Jesús Alberto


Entrenamiento de una red neuronal multicapa para la tasa de cambio euro - dólar (EUR/USD)
Ingeniería e Investigación, vol. 27, núm. 3, diciembre, 2007, pp. 106-117
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Bogotá, Colombia

Disponible en: http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=64327313

Cómo citar el artículo


Número completo
Sistema de Información Científica
Más información del artículo Red de Revistas Científicas de América Latina, el Caribe, España y Portugal
Página de la revista en redalyc.org Proyecto académico sin fines de lucro, desarrollado bajo la iniciativa de acceso abierto
5(9,67$,1*(1,(5Ì$(,19(67,*$&,Ð192/1R',&,(0%5('(  

›ÏÃl›A–‹l›ÏŸÍclÍ؛AÍÃlc͛lØߛA’Í–Ø’Ï‹YA®AÍ®AÃA͒AÍÏAÆAÍclÍ
YA–O‹ŸÍlØß͊Íc ’AÃÍ°4/Ì40±

2ÃA‹›‹›€ÍA͖ؒϋ’AálÃ͛lØÃA’Í›lÏߟÑÍyŸÃÍψlÍØߊcŸ’’AÃÍ°4/Ì
40±ÍlàYˆA›€lÍÃAÏl
@Š•kÌ‘NkÂΞÌ8Š‘‘@•Š‘Ì1žÂÂkÅ¥ÌàÌkÅØÅÌ‘NkÂΞÌk‘@bžÌ.ŠÝkÂ@Õ

5(680(1
7DQWRSDUDORVLQYHUVLRQLVWDVFRPRSDUDODVDXWRULGDGHVHFRQyPLFDVHVQHFHVDULRTXHVHGHVDUUROOHXQDKHUUDPLHQWD
PDWHPiWLFDTXHORJUHGDUFXHQWDGHODGLUHFFLyQGHXQDYDULDEOHFRPRHOWLSRGHFDPELR HOSUHFLRUHODWLYRHQWUH
GRVPRQHGDV 0XFKRVGHORVPHFDQLVPRVXVDGRVDFWXDOPHQWHHVWiQEDVDGRVHQHOXVRGHWpFQLFDVHVWDGtVWLFDVHQ
SDUWLFXODUVHULHVGHWLHPSROLQHDOHV/DVUHGHVQHXURQDOHVDUWLILFLDOHV 51$ VRQPRGHORVPDWHPiWLFRVTXHSUHWHQGHQ
HPXODUHOIXQFLRQDPLHQWRGHOFHUHEURKXPDQRVXDSOLFDFLyQHQHFRQRPtDHLQJHQLHUtDVXUJHDILQDOHVGHORVDxRV
RFKHQWDFRQEXHQRVUHVXOWDGRV/DV51$VHSUHVHQWDQFRPRXQDDOWHUQDWLYDSDUDVLPXODUHOFRPSRUWDPLHQWRGH
YDULDEOHVILQDQFLHUDVTXHSRUORJHQHUDOWLHQGHQDSDUHFHUVHDXQSDVHRDOHDWRULR(QHVWHWUDEDMRVHPXHVWUDQORV
UHVXOWDGRVGHOHQWUHQDPLHQWRGHXQDUHGQHXURQDOSDUDQHJRFLDFLyQGHODWDVDGHFDPELR(8586'\ODVERQGDGHV
GHODOJRULWPRGHHQWUHQDPLHQWRFKHPRWD[LVTXHSHUPLWHHQWUHQDUUHGHVTXHPD[LPLFHQXQDIXQFLyQREMHWLYRTXH
UHODFLRQHDFLHUWRVHQODSUHGLFFLyQFRQODVJDQDQFLDVGHXQWUDGHU

3DODEUDVFODYHFKHPRWD[LVHVWUDWHJLDVGHQHJRFLDFLyQ)RUH[UHGHVQHXURQDOHVDUWLILFLDOHVUHGHVPXOWLFDSD
3DODEUDVFODYH
-(/)&

$%675$&7
$PDWKHPDWLFDOWRRORUPRGHOIRUSUHGLFWLQJKRZDQHFRQRPLFYDULDEOHOLNHWKHH[FKDQJHUDWH UHODWLYHSULFH
EHWZHHQ WZR FXUUHQFLHV  ZLOO UHVSRQG LV D YHU\ LPSRUWDQW QHHG IRU LQYHVWRUV DQG SROLF\PDNHUV 0RVW FXUUHQW
WHFKQLTXHV DUH EDVHG RQ VWDWLVWLFV SDUWLFXODUO\ OLQHDU WLPH VHULHV WKHRU\ $UWLILFLDO QHXUDO QHWZRUNV $11V  DUH
PDWKHPDWLFDOPRGHOVZKLFKWU\WRHPXODWHELRORJLFDOQHXUDOQHWZRUNV·SDUDOOHOLVPDQGQRQOLQHDULW\WKHVHPRGHOV
KDYHEHHQVXFFHVVIXOO\DSSOLHGLQ(FRQRPLFVDQG(QJLQHHULQJVLQFHWKHV$11VDSSHDUWREHDQDOWHUQDWLYH
IRUPRGHOOLQJWKHEHKDYLRXURIILQDQFLDOYDULDEOHVZKLFKUHVHPEOH DVILUVWDSSUR[LPDWLRQ DUDQGRPZDON7KLV
SDSHUUHSRUWVWKHUHVXOWVRIXVLQJ$11VIRU(XUR86'H[FKDQJHUDWHWUDGLQJDQGWKHXVHIXOQHVVRIWKHDOJRULWKP
IRUFKHPRWD[LVOHDGLQJWRWUDLQLQJQHWZRUNVWKHUHE\PD[LPLVLQJDQREMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQUHSUHGLFWLQJDWUDGHU·V
SURILWV-(/)&

.H\ZRUGVDUWLILFLDOQHXUDOQHWZRUNFKHPRWD[LV)25(;WUDGLQJVWUDWHJ\
.H\ZRUGV

5HFLELGRDJRVWRGH
$FHSWDGRQRYLHPEUHGH

,QWURGXFFLyQ
/D WHRUtD HFRQyPLFD VXEUD\D OD GLILFXOWDG SDUD SUHGHFLU HQIRTXHVGLIHUHQWHVTXHLQWHQWDQH[SOLFDUHOUXPERGHORV
ORV SUHFLRV GH ORV DFWLYRV ILQDQFLHURV \ SRQH HQ GXGD OD SUHFLRV GH ORV DFWLYRV ILQDQFLHURV XQR FRQ EDVH HQ ORV
FDSDFLGDGGHTXHORVLQYHUVLRQLVWDVGHULYHQEHQHILFLRVLQ LQGLFDGRUHVGHODVDOXGHFRQyPLFDGHXQSDtV HODQiOLVLV
GHILQLGDPHQWHDWUDYpVGHODHVSHFXODFLyQ(VWDDILUPDFLyQ IXQGDPHQWDO  \ RWUR SRU PHGLR GH LQGLFDGRUHV \ ILJXUDV
VHFRQRFHFRPRKLSyWHVLVGHORVPHUFDGRVHILFLHQWHV\IXH FRQVWUXLGDVDSDUWLUGHODFRWL]DFLyQKLVWyULFD HODQiOLVLVWpF
H[SXHVWDSRU(XJHQH)DPDDILQDOHVGHORVDxRVVHVHQWD(O QLFR (QHVWHDUWtFXORVHSURSRQHHOXVRGHUHGHVQHXURQDOHV
SUHVHQWH  SODQWHDPLHQWR VHxDOD TXH HO FRQRFLPLHQWR GHO PXOWLFDSDDOLPHQWDGDVGHFXDOTXLHUDGHHVWRVLQGLFDGRUHV
FRPSRUWDPLHQWRGHOSUHFLRHQHOSDVDGRQRDSRUWDLQIRU TXHSURSRUFLRQHQVHxDOHVGHQHJRFLDFLyQHQHOPHUFDGR
PDFLyQSDUDGLOXFLGDUVXQLYHOIXWXUR1RREVWDQWHH[LVWHQ GHODWDVDGHFDPELRHXURGyODU (8586' 


(FRQRPLVWD\06FHQ0DWHPjWLFD$SOLFDGD8QLYHUVLGDG1DFLRQDOGH&RORPELD7UDEDMDGRU%DQFRORPELDMDLPHBYLOODPLO#\DKRRFRP

,QJHQLHURHOHFWUyQLFR06FHQ,QJHQLHUtD(OpFWUtFD3K'HQ&LEHUQpWLFD3URIHVRU7LWXODU)DFXOWDGGH,QJHQLHUtD'HSDUWDPHQWRGH,QJHQLHUtD
(OpFWULFD\(OHFWUyQLFD8QLYHUVLGDG1DFLRQDOGH&RORPELD%RJRWiMDGHOJDGRU#XQDOHGXFRDGHOJDGR#LHHHRUJ


9,//$0,/'(/*$'2

0DUFRWHyULFR VHH[SUHVDSRUPHGLRGHODIXQFLyQGHDFWLYDFLyQ I FX\R


/DV UHGHV QHXURQDOHV VRQ VLVWHPDV GH SURFHVDPLHQWR GH DUJXPHQWRHVHOSURGXFWRLQWHUQRGHORVYHFWRUHV : \ ; 
LQIRUPDFLyQ TXH HVWiQ LQVSLUDGRV HQ OD HVWUXFWXUD \ HO PiVHOSDUiPHWURE WDPELpQDMXVWDEOHVLVHGHVHD 
IXQFLRQDPLHQWRGHORVVLVWHPDVQHUYLRVRVELROyJLFRV6XLP
(Q EUHYH XQD UHG QHXURQDO VH GHILQH FRPR XQD LQWHUFR
SRUWDQFLDUHVLGHHQODFDSDFLGDGTXHWLHQHQSDUDDSUR[LPDU
QH[LyQHQSDUDOHORGHQHXURQDVGRQGHODVVDOLGDVGHXQD
IXQFLRQHVGHVFRQRFLGDVFRQEDVHHQHOFRQRFLPLHQWRGHXQ
QHXURQDVLUYHQGHHQWUDGDDRWUDV/DUHGQHXURQDOHVFDSD]
SDWUyQGHGDWRVGHHQWUDGD\VDOLGD/DSULPHUDUHSUHVHQ
GHDSUHQGHUFXiOHVODDVRFLDFLyQHQWUHXQDVYDULDEOHVH[SOL
WDFLyQGHXQDQHXURQDELROyJLFDIXHRIUHFLGDHQSRU
FDWLYDV\XQDVH[SOLFDGDV(OPRGRHQTXHHVWDVFRQH[LRQHV
6DQWLDJR5DPyQ\&DMDO(QOD)LJXUDVHSXHGHREVHUYDU
VHSUHVHQWDQVHOODPDDUTXLWHFWXUDGHODUHG<DOSURFHVR
XQGLEXMRGHXQDQHXURQDELROyJLFDHVWDHVHQJHQHUDOXQD
JUDGXDOGHDMXVWHGHORVSHVRV\XPEUDOHVDYDORUHVTXHVH
FpOXODQHUYLRVDSURYLVWDGHXQQ~FOHRTXHJHQHUDXQLPSXOVR
DGHF~DQDXQFRUUHFWRDSUHQGL]DMHGHODWDUHDSUHVHQWDGD
HOpFWULFRGHSHQGLHQGRGHXQJUDGRGHH[FLWDFLyQ SRUHMHP
VHOHOODPDHQWUHQDPLHQWR
SORODGLILFXOWDGGHODWDUHD \XQDVSURORQJDFLRQHVTXHVH
FRQRFHQFRPRD[yQ\ILQDOPHQWHODVGHQGULWDV

(VSRUPHGLRGHODVUDPLILFDFLRQHVPiVSHTXHxDVGHULYDGDV
GHOD[yQODVGHQGULWDVTXHXQDVQHXURQDVVHFRPXQLFDQ
FRQRWUDV(VWDFRQH[LyQQRHVItVLFDODVGHQGULWDVGHXQD
QHXURQDHVWiQFHUFDGHODVGHQGULWDVGHRWUDSHURDPEDV
WHUPLQDFLRQHV VH HQFXHQWUDQ LQPHUVDV HQ XQD VXVWDQFLD
QHXURWUDQVPLVRUDTXHGHSHQGLHQGRGHODLQWHQVLGDGGHO
LPSXOVRHOpFWULFRTXHYLHQHGHXQDQHXURQDOHHVFRPXQL
FDGRDODVQHXURQDVFRQWLJXDVDHVWHHVSDFLRHQWUHGHQGUL
WDVVHOHFRQRFHFRPRVLQDSVLV/DLQWHQVLGDGGHOLPSXOVR )LJXUD1HXURQDDUWLILFLDO
HOpFWULFRTXHSHUPLWHODDFWLYDFLyQGHODVQHXURQDVYHFLQDV
HVWiGHWHUPLQDGDSRUXQXPEUDOVLHOLPSXOVRHVPD\RUD /DLQYHVWLJDFLyQHQUHGHVQHXURQDOHVGHVSXpVGHOKDOOD]JR
HVWHHQWRQFHVVHWUDQVPLWHDODVGHPiVGHORFRQWUDULRQR GH0LQVN\\3DSHUW  HQWUyHQXQHVWDGRGHDEDQGRQR
(QHOHVTXHPDGHIXQFLRQDPLHQWRQHXURILVLROyJLFRGH KDVWDILQDOHVGHORVRFKHQWD(OUHVXOWDGRGHHVWRVDXWRUHV
ODQHXURQDIXHHPXODGRPDWHPiWLFDPHQWHSRU0F&XOORFK\ VHxDOyTXHVLQLPSRUWDUODIXQFLyQQROLQHDOXVDGDFRPR
3LWWVPHGLDQWHXQDUHSUHVHQWDFLyQFRPRODGHOD)LJXUDD IXQFLyQGHDFWLYDFLyQXQSHUFHSWURQFRQVRODPHQWHODFDSD
ODTXHVHOHFRQRFHFRPRQHXURQDDUWLILFLDORSHUFHSWURQ GHVDOLGDWLHQHp[LWRHQWDUHDVGHFODVLILFDFLyQGHSDWURQHV
VRORVLHVWRVVRQOLQHDOPHQWHVHSDUDEOHV(OHMHPSORFOiVLFR
SDUDLOXVWUDUHVWDLGHDKDVLGRHODSUHQGL]DMHGHODIXQFLyQ
OyJLFDRH[FOXVLYD ;25 (VWDRSHUDFLyQOyJLFDHQWUHYDORUHV
GHYHUGDGGHGRVSURSRVLFLRQHVVHUHSUHVHQWDPHGLDQWHOD
VLJXLHQWHWDEOD

7DEOD2SHUDFLyQ;25

)LJXUD1HXURQD%LROyJLFD)XHQWHKWWSSV\FKZLVFHGX (OYDORULQGLFDIDOVHGDG\HOYDORUORFRQWUDULR'HHVWD
IDFXOW\SDJHVFUREHUWVWRSLFKWPO PDQHUDODRSHUDFLyQOyJLFDRH[FOXVLYDHQWUHGRVSURSRVL
FLRQHVHVYHUGDGHUDVyORVLDOJXQDGHODVGRVSURSRVLFLRQHV
(QOD)LJXUDH[LVWHXQYHFWRU ; U ×FRQUYDULDEOHVGHHQWUDGD HVYHUGDGHUDSHURQRDPEDV(QFiOFXORGHSURSRVLFLRQHVOD
XQYHFWRU :×U TXHFRQVWDGHSRQGHUDGRUHV TXHVRQDMXVWD RSHUDFLyQ;25VHSXHGHH[SUHVDUHQWpUPLQRVGHRSHUDFLR
EOHV SDUDFDGDYDULDEOHGHHQWUDGD\DGHPiVVHLQYROXFUD QHVPiVFRQRFLGDVFRPR$1'25\ODQHJDFLyQ ¬ ;25
XQSDUiPHWURHVFDODU E OODPDGRXPEUDO/DDFWLYDFLyQ HO HV HTXLYDOHQWH D OD VLJXLHQWH SURSRVLFLyQ ¬[  $1' 
LPSXOVRHOpFWULFRUHSUHVHQWDGRSRUODOHWUD D GHODQHXURQD
[  25 [  $1'  ¬[ 


/DIXQFLyQGHDFWLYDFLyQVHXVDSDUDDFRWDUHOUDQJRGHVXUHVSXHVWDRVDOLGD D HQWUHGRVYDORUHVGHVHDEOHV/DVIXQFLRQHVGHDFWLYDFLyQPiV
XVDGDVVRQODORJtVWLFDTXHJDUDQWL]DYDORUHVHQHOLQWHUYDOR  \ODWDQJHQWH KLSHUEyOLFDTXHJDUDQWL]DYDORUHVHQHOLQWHUYDOR  

(QWHRUtDGHFRQMXQWRVHVWDVRSHUDFLRQHVVRQVHPHMDQWHVDODLQWHUVHFFLyQODFRQMXQFLyQ\HOFRPSOHPHQWRUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH

5(9,67$,1*(1,(5Ì$(,19(67,*$&,Ð192/1R',&,(0%5('(   


(175(1$0,(172'(81$5('1(8521$/08/7,&$3$3$5$/$7$6$'(&$0%,2(852'Ð/$5 (8586'

/DGLILFXOWDGSDUDUHVROYHUHOSUREOHPDUHVLGHHQHOKHFKR
GH TXH ORV SDWURQHV QR VRQ OLQHDOPHQWH VHSDUDEOHV (V
GHFLUTXHQRH[LVWHXQDOtQHDUHFWDTXHSHUPLWDVHSDUDUHO
HVSDFLRGHSDWURQHV(QOD)LJXUDVHGLEXMDQORVYDORUHV
GHOD7DEODHQODVDEFLVDVYDQORVYDORUHVGH [ \HQODV
FRRUGHQDGDVORVGH [  &RQEODQFRVHUHSUHVHQWDXQYDORU
YHUGDGHUR   GH OD SURSRVLFLyQ [  ;25 [   \ FRQ QHJUR
XQYDORUIDOVR  6HREVHUYDHQGLFKD,OXVWUDFLyQTXHQR
HVSRVLEOHWUD]DUXQDOtQHDUHFWDTXHGLYLGDODVUHVSXHVWDV
IDOVDVGHODVYHUGDGHUDV

)LJXUD5HGQHXURQDOPXOWLFDSD

7RGDUHGPXOWLFDSDVHHQFXHQWUDGHILQLGDHQWpUPLQRVGH
VXDUTXLWHFWXUDVXVIXQFLRQHVGHDFWLYDFLyQORVXPEUDOHV\
ORVSHVRVVLHQGRHVWDVGRV~OWLPDVODVYDULDEOHVGHDMXVWHHQ
HOPRPHQWRGHXWLOL]DUXQDOJRULWPRGHHQWUHQDPLHQWRSDUD
TXHODUHGDSUHQGD(QHOHQWUHQDPLHQWRDGHPiVGHDMXVWDU
ORV SHVRV \ ORV XPEUDOHV HV SUHFLVR RSWLPL]DU HO Q~PHUR
GHQHXURQDVTXHODFRQIRUPDQSRUTXHGHHVWRGHSHQGHOD
)LJXUD1RVHSDUDELOLGDGOLQHDO YHORFLGDGTXHDGTXLHUHODUHGSDUDDSUHQGHU

/DIRUPDHQODTXHVHSXHGHQKDFHUVHSDUDEOHVODVUHVSXHVWDV (O HQWUHQDPLHQWR GH XQD UHG PXOWLFDSD HV GH GRV WLSRV
GHOD)LJXUDHVPHGLDQWHXQDRYDULDVFDSDVGHIXQFLRQHV LQFUHPHQWDOVLHODSUHQGL]DMHVHGDDOSUHVHQWDUOHDODUHG
QROLQHDOHVHQWUHODVHQWUDGDV\ODVVDOLGDVGHXQSHUFHSWURQ FDGDHQWUDGD YDULDEOHVH[SOLFDWLYDV FRQVXUHVSHFWLYDVDOLGD
DHVWDFRQILJXUDFLyQVHOHOODPDSHUFHSWURQPXOWLFDSD(VWH YDULDEOHV H[SOLFDGDV  R EDWFK FXDQGR HO DSUHQGL]DMH GH
VHJ~Q OD GHPRVWUDFLyQ )XQDKDVKL   HV FDSD] GH ODUHGRFXUUHVyORGHVSXpVGHKDEHUOHSUHVHQWDGRWRGRHO
DSUR[LPDUFXDOTXLHUDVRFLDFLyQQROLQHDOHQWUHYDULDEOHV FRQMXQWRGHGDWRVGHHQWUDGD\VDOLGD(OREMHWLYRGHOHQWUH
QDPLHQWRHVPLQLPL]DUXQDIXQFLyQGHFRVWRODTXHVHXVD
8QSHUFHSWURQPXOWLFDSDFRQVLVWHHQXQDUUHJORGHQHXURQDV FRQIUHFXHQFLDHVHOHUURUFXDGUiWLFRPHGLR
SRUFDSDVODFDSDGHQHXURQDVSDUDODVYDULDEOHVGHHQWUDGD
VHOODPDFDSDGHHQWUDGDXQDRYDULDVFDSDVLQWHUPHGLDVVH (ODOJRULWPRGHHQWUHQDPLHQWRPiVXVDGRHVHOGHSURSD
OODPDQFDSDVRFXOWDV\XQDFDSDGHQHXURQDVSDUDODVYD JDFLyQ LQYHUVD HQ LQJOpV EDFN SURSDJDWLRQ  TXH SDUWH GH
ULDEOHVGHVDOLGDVHOODPDFDSDGHVDOLGDODVLQWHUFRQH[LRQHV XQRVYDORUHVLQLFLDOHVGHWRGRVORVSHVRV\XPEUDOHVGHOD
TXHVRQSHUPLWLGDVHQWUHQHXURQDVVyORYDQGHXQDQHXURQD UHGJHQHUDGRVDOHDWRULDPHQWH\ORVDFWXDOL]DFRQEDVHHQXQ
GHXQDFDSDDODVQHXURQDVGHODFDSDVLJXLHQWH(VWDHVOD WpUPLQRGHFRUUHFFLyQ(OSURFHVRLWHUDWLYRVHUHDOL]DGHVGH
SULQFLSDOFDUDFWHUtVWLFDGHODVUHGHVPXOWLFDSDRHVWiWLFDVQR OD~OWLPDFDSDGHQHXURQDVKDVWDODSULPHUDHQODPHGLGD
H[LVWHUHWURDOLPHQWDFLyQHVWRHVQRVHSHUPLWHTXHODVDOLGD HQTXHFDGDSDWUyQHVSUHVHQWDGRDODUHG(QYLUWXGGHTXH
GHXQDFDSDYD\DFRPRHQWUDGDDXQDFDSDDQWHULRU&XDQGR HODSUHQGL]DMHVHKDFHFRQEDVHHQODUHSHWLFLyQQRVRORHV
VHSHUPLWHVHKDEODGHUHGHVUHFXUUHQWHVRGLQiPLFDV/D QHFHVDULRSUHVHQWDUOHDODUHGXQDOLVWDGHGDWRV SDWURQHV 
QRWDFLyQDEUHYLDGDSDUDODDUTXLWHFWXUDGHXQDUHGQHXURQDO GLVSRQLEOHVHQODPXHVWUDGHHQWUHQDPLHQWRVLQRTXHHV
PXOWLFDSDHV QL  Q M  QN 'RQGHQL \QN VRQHOQ~PHURGH SUHFLVRSUHVHQWiUVHORVYDULDVYHFHVKDVWDTXHODUHGDSUHQGD
YDULDEOHVGHHQWUDGD\GHVDOLGDUHVSHFWLYDPHQWHHQWDQWR $FDGDOLVWDGRGHSDWURQHVVHOHOODPDpSRFD(OQ~PHURGH
TXH Q M HVHOQ~PHURGHQHXURQDVHQODFDSDRFXOWD LWHUDFLRQHVGHODOJRULWPRGHSURSDJDFLyQLQYHUVDHVLJXDODO
Q~PHURGHpSRFDVPXOWLSOLFDGRSRUHOQ~PHURGHSDWURQHV
(QOD)LJXUDVHLOXVWUDXQDUHGQHXURQDOPXOWLFDSDFRQDU GLVSRQLEOHVHQODPXHVWUDGHHQWUHQDPLHQWR(QODQpVLPD
TXLWHFWXUD  /DVFDSDVVHUHSUHVHQWDQFRQODOHWUD LWHUDFLyQODFRUUHFFLyQ ΔZ Q HVLJXDODXQDFRQVWDQWHGH
PD\~VFXOD 6 \HOVXEtQGLFHGDFXHQWDGHORUGHQHQTXH SURSRUFLRQDOLGDGη  OODPDGDWDVDGHDSUHQGL]DMH TXHPXOWL
VHGLVWULEX\HQODVFDSDVODLOXVWUDFLyQPXHVWUDXQDUHGFRQ SOLFDHOFDPELRGHGLUHFFLyQGHODVXPDGHHUURUHVFXDGUDGRV
FXDWURYDULDEOHVGHHQWUDGDHQODFDSD 6 GRVGHVDOLGDHQ ( Q FRQUHVSHFWRVDORVSHVRV Z Q HVGHFLU
ODFDSD 6  \GRVFDSDVRFXOWDV 6  \ 6 FDGDXQDFRQWUHV
QHXURQDVFRPRODVQHXURQDVDUWLILFLDOGHOD)LJXUD   


&XDQGRVHWLHQHQYDULDEOHVGHHQWUDGDODQRVHSDUDELOLGDGOLQHDOFRQVLVWHHQTXHQRHVSRVLEOHTXHXQKLSHUSODQRVHSDUHGRVKLSHUYRO~PHQHV

&LWDGRSRU'HOJDGR  

 5(9,67$,1*(1,(5Ì$(,19(67,*$&,Ð192/1R',&,(0%5('(  


9,//$0,/'(/*$'2

/DUHJOD  HVQHFHVDULRH[DPLQDUODSRUVHSDUDGRHQODFDSD QDPLHQWRVHDGHPDVLDGROHQWRSRUHOFRQWUDULRXQDWDVD


GHVDOLGD\HQODFDSDRFXOWDGHELGRDTXHHQHVWD~OWLPDQR PX\DOWDKDFHTXHHODOJRULWPRVHDLQHVWDEOH/DVROXFLyQ
H[LVWHQXQRVYDORUHVGHVHDEOHVTXHSXHGDQVHUREVHUYDGRV GHSHQGH QRWDEOHPHQWH GH ORV SHVRV FRQ ORV TXH VH LQL
\FRQORVFXDOHVPHGLUORVHUURUHVGHVDOLGDGHODVQHXURQDV FLDOL]DHOHQWUHQDPLHQWRSXHVWRTXHGHSHQGLHQGRGHHOOR
HQHVDFDSD/DGHGXFFLyQGHOPHFDQLVPRGHDFWXDOL]DFLyQ VHSXHGHOOHJDUDXQPtQLPRORFDO\QRDXQRJOREDO(Q
GHORVSHVRVFRPRORSODQWHDHODOJRULWPRGHSURSDJDFLyQ FRQVHFXHQFLD HO HQWUHQDPLHQWR PHGLDQWH SURSDJDFLyQ
LQYHUVDVHHQFXHQWUDH[SXHVWRHQ+D\NLQ  (QXQDUHG LQYHUVDHVXQHMHUFLFLRGHHQVD\R\HUURUTXHUHVXOWDDOJR
QHXURQDOFRQVyORXQDFDSDRFXOWDODVHFXDFLRQHV  \   HQJRUURVRSRUHVWDUD]yQVHKDQSURSXHVWRDOJXQDVPR
EXVFDQYDORUHVySWLPRVGHORVSHVRVTXHPLQLPLFHQHOYDORU GLILFDFLRQHVGHODOJRULWPR
GHOHUURUFXDGUDGRPHGLR/DRSWLPL]DFLyQGHORVSHVRVHQ
ODFDSDGHVDOLGDVHFRQVLJXHPHGLDQWHODVLJXLHQWHUHJOD 8QDSURSXHVWDGHHQWUHQDPLHQWRTXHVHPDQWLHQHHQODLGHD
GHHPXODUORVPHFDQLVPRVELROyJLFRVHVODGH%UHPHUPDQQ
  \$QGHUVRQ  (OORVSURSXVLHURQHQWUHQDUUHGHVQHX
URQDOHVDUWLILFLDOHVLPLWDQGRHOPHFDQLVPRGHFKHPRWD[LV
TXHHVHOPRYLPLHQWRDOHDWRULRGHRUJDQLVPRVXQLFHOXODUHV
3RUVXODGRORVSDUiPHWURVGHODFDSDRFXOWDVRQDFWXDOL]DGRV SRUHMHPSORGHODVEDFWHULDVFXDQGRUHVSRQGHQDOHVWtPXOR
SRUPHGLRGHODUHJOD GHODVVXVWDQFLDVTXtPLFDVTXHOHVVLUYHQGHQXWULHQWHV/DV
YHQWDMDV TXH WLHQH OD FKHPRWD[LV HQ FRPSDUDFLyQ FRQ OD
 
SURSDJDFLyQ LQYHUVD VRQ SULPHUR TXH HVWH DOJRULWPR QR
 
XVDHOJUDGLHQWHGHOHUURURIUHFLHQGRDVtOLEHUWDGSDUDXVDU
'RQGH IXQFLRQHVREMHWLYRPXFKRPiVFRPSOHMDV SDUDODVFXDOHV
HOFiOFXORGHOJUDGLHQWHVHUtDGLItFLORLPSRVLEOHGHFDOFXODU 
HVHOMpVLPRSHVRHQODFDSDRFXOWDSDUDODLpVLPD \VHJXQGRTXHODWDVDGHDSUHQGL]DMHHVYDULDEOH\QRILMD
YDULDEOHGHHQWUDGD FRPRHQHODOJRULWPRGHUHWURSURSDJDFLyQ
 HVHONpVLPRSHVRHQODFDSDGHVDOLGDSDUDOD (ODOJRULWPRGHFKHPRWD[LVREHGHFHDODVLJXLHQWHVHFXHQFLD
MpVLPDYDULDEOHGHHQWUDGD
L 6HLQLFLDFRQXQDPDWUL]DUELWUDULDGHSHVRV : 
I M ⋅    HV OD IXQFLyQ GH DFWLYDFLyQ GH OD QHXURQD M  TXH LL /RVSHVRVLQLFLDOHVGHL VRQSHUWXUEDGRVSRUXQWpUPL
JHQHUDODVDOLGD \ M
QR Δ:  TXH VLJXH XQD GLVWULEXFLyQ QRUPDO HVWiQGDU 

\ M (Q)  HV OD VDOLGD GH OD QHXURQD M  HQ OD QpVLPD LWHUD  K
:W = :GRQGHHVXQDFRQVWDQWHVLPLODUDOD
+ K Δ:
FLyQ WDVDGHDSUHQGL]DMHHQHODOJRULWPRGHSURSDJDFLyQLQ
YHUVDTXHWRPDYDORUHVHQWUHFHUR\XQR
V M Q HVHOQLYHOGHDFWLYLGDGLQWHUQDGHODQHXURQD M LJXDO
D LLL  /D IXQFLyQ REMHWLYR GH LQWHUpV D VHU RSWLPL]DGD VH
HYDO~DFRQORVQXHYRVSHVRV I (:W )6LORVQXHYRVSH
VRV GLVPLQX\HQ HQ HO FDVR TXH VH GHVHH PLQLPL]DU 
HN Q HVHOHUURUGHDSUR[LPDFLyQHQWUHODVDOLGDVLPXODGD RDXPHQWDQ HQHOFDVRTXHVHGHVHHPD[LPL]DU HQ
\W \ODGHVHDGD \ W OD IXQFLyQ REMHWLYR FRQ UHODFLyQ DO UHVXOWDGR TXH VH
REWLHQHFRQORVSHVRVLQLFLDOHV I (: ) VHWRPDQHVWRV
1 HVHOQ~PHURGHSDWURQHVGHHQWUHQDPLHQWR
QXHYRVSHVRVFRPRUHIHUHQFLD\VHYXHOYHDOSDVRLL 
GHORFRQWUDULRVHUHJUHVDDL 
( Q HVODVXPDGHHUURUHVDOFXDGUDGR ( Q =   ∑H
N ∈.

N Q

LY 'XUDQWHHOFLFORGHLWHUDFLRQHVHOYDORUGH K HVDMXV


(&0  HV HO HUURU FXDGUDGR PHGLR HV
 WDGR GH OD VLJXLHQWH IRUPD GHVSXpV GH V  SDVRV
1
(&0 =  1 ∑ ( Q H[LWRVRVHOQXHYRYDORUHV K + δ V HVGHFLUVH K D F H
Q= PiVUiSLGRHODSUHQGL]DMH'HVSXpVGH I SDVRVIDOOLGRV
(O DOJRULWPR GH SURSDJDFLyQ LQYHUVD WLHQH GHILFLHQFLDV HOQXHYRYDORUHV K − δ I HVWRHVVHKDFHPiVOHQWRHO
XQDWDVDGHDSUHQGL]DMHPX\SHTXHxDKDFHTXHHOHQWUH DSUHQGL]DMH


´%DFWHULDDUHWRRVPDOOWREHDEOHWRPHDVXUHVSDWLDOFRQFHQWUDWLRQJUDGLHQWVRIFKHPRDWWUDFWDQWV:KHQVZLPPLQJLQDPHGLXPZLWKYDU\LQJ
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVWKH\JHQHUDWHUDQGRPGLUHFWLRQVLQVWHDGDQGNHHSJRLQJDVORQJDVFRQFHQWUDWLRQLQFUHDVHV,IDWWUDFWDQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQGRHV
QRWRUQRORQJHULQFUHDVHVWKHQWKH\VWRSWXPEOHWKHQHPHUJHLQDQHZGLUHFWLRQDWUDQGRPDQJOHVWRWKHROGGLUHFWLRQ,QWKLVZD\WKH\PRYH
WRZDUGVODUJHUDQGODUJHUFRQFHQWUDWLRQYDOXHVRIWKHDWWUDFWDQW,QRWKHUZRUGVWKH\RSWLPL]HWKHIXQFWLRQWKDWGHVFULEHVWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKH
FKHPRDWWUDFWDQWLQWKHPHGLXPµ%UHPHUPDQQ\$QGHUVRQ SS 

(QHOFDVRGHORVSHUFHSWURQHVPXOWLFDSDVHSDUWHGHGRVPDWULFHVXQDHQODFDSDRFXOWD\RWUDHQODGHVDOLGD

5(9,67$,1*(1,(5Ì$(,19(67,*$&,Ð192/1R',&,(0%5('(   


(175(1$0,(172'(81$5('1(8521$/08/7,&$3$3$5$/$7$6$'(&$0%,2(852'Ð/$5 (8586'

(OSURFHVRSXHGHGHWHQHUVHGHILQLHQGRXQQ~PHURPi[LPR (OFiOFXORGHODUHQWDELOLGDGDQXDOL]DGD 5$ GHXQDHVWUD


GHLWHUDFLRQHVRVLQRXQYDORUPtQLPRGHOHUURUFXDGUDGR WHJLDHVWiOLJDGRDODUHJODGHQHJRFLDFLyQTXHVHVLJD6LVH
PHGLRTXHUHVXOWHVDWLVIDFWRULR(Q'HOJDGR  VHHQ VXSRQHXQPRGHORTXHSUHGLFHHOSUHFLRGHODFWLYRHQOD
FXHQWUDHOGLDJUDPDGHIOXMRGHODOJRULWPRFKHPRWD[LV KRUDVLJXLHQWH

\ W \HOYDORUTXHWRPDUiGHQWURGHVHLVKRUDV
\W +   X Q D UHJODGHQHJRFLDFLyQVHQFLOODHV
(OREMHWLYRGHFXDOTXLHUDOJRULWPRGHHQWUHQDPLHQWRHVKDFHU

PtQLPRHOHUURUFXDGUDGRPHGLR RFXDOTXLHURWUDIXQFLyQ 6L \ W + > \ W HQWRQFHVHQ W VHFRPSUDHODFWLYRDOSUHFLRGH
GHSpUGLGD SHURODH[SHULHQFLDKDGHPRVWUDGRTXHODVUH HVHPRPHQWR
GHVWLHQGHQDVREUHDMXVWDUORVGDWRV3RUHVWDUD]yQHVXVXDO
GHVWLQDUHOGHODPXHVWUDSDUDHOHQWUHQDPLHQWR\HO 26L \ W + < \ W HQWRQFHVHQ W VHYHQGHHODFWLYRDOSUHFLR
SDUDODSUXHEDGHOPRGHOR/DVHOHFFLyQGHODPHMRUUHGVH GHHVHPRPHQWR
UHDOL]DFRQEDVHHQODDUTXLWHFWXUDTXHREWHQJDHOPHQRU
(OFDSLWDOILQDO . 7 TXHWHQGUiXQLQYHUVLRQLVWDTXHVHLQ
YDORUGHOHUURUFXDGUDGRPHGLRHQHOFRQMXQWRGHSUXHED(Q
WURGXFHHQHOQHJRFLRFRQXQFDSLWDOLQLFLDO .  GXUDQWHXQ
OD)LJXUDVHPXHVWUDFyPRHVHOFRPSRUWDPLHQWRGHOHUURU
SHULRGR[ 7 ]VLQWHQHUHQFXHQWDORVFRVWRVGHWUDQVDFFLyQ
FXDGUDGRPHGLRDPHGLGDTXHHODOJRULWPRDYDQ]DHQFDGD
QR OLTXLGDQGR OD SRVLFLyQ DQWHV GH OD JHQHUDFLyQ GH XQD
LWHUDFLyQVHYHTXHHQHOFRQMXQWRGHHQWUHQDPLHQWRHVWH
VHxDOGHQHJRFLDFLyQDVXPLHQGRTXHHOSUHFLRGHFRPSUD
YDORUVLHPSUHGHFDHFRQHOQ~PHURGHLWHUDFLRQHVSHURSDUD
HVHOPLVPRGHYHQWD\UHLQYLUWLHQGRODWRWDOLGDGGHOFDSLWDO
VHOHFFLRQDUODUHGySWLPDVyORKD\XQQ~PHURGHLWHUDFLRQHV
DFXPXODGRHQFXDOTXLHUPRPHQWRYLHQHGDGRSRU
TXHKDFHPtQLPRHOHUURUFXDGUDGRPHGLRHQHOFRQMXQWR
GH SUXHED 'H HVH Q~PHUR GH LWHUDFLRQHV HQ DGHODQWH VH   
UHSUHVHQWDQDUTXLWHFWXUDVTXHDMXVWDQPX\ELHQHQHOHQWUH
QDPLHQWRSHURPX\PDOFRQORVYDORUHVGHSUXHED
'RQGH F = VLJQR⎛⎜ \ W + −  ⎞⎟ VLJQR⎜⎛ \ W + −  ⎞⎟ 

W ⎜ \ ⎟ ⎜ \ ⎟
⎝ W ⎠ ⎝ W ⎠

6LHQXQSHULRGRGHVHLVKRUDVHOPRGHORGHSURQyVWLFRTXH
UHVSDOGDODGHFLVLyQGHFRPSUDURYHQGHUDUURMDXQDVHxDO\
DFLHUWDHQWRQFHV FW = \HOLQFUHPHQWRGHORVSUHFLRVFRQ
UHVSHFWRDVHLVKRUDVDWUiVHVVXPDGRDOFDSLWDOTXHVHWLHQH
KDVWDDKRUD6LQRVHDFLHUWDHQWRQFHV FW = − \VHSLHUGH
HVHDXPHQWR(QHOFDVRHQTXHHOPRGHORQRGHWHFWHXQ
)LJXUD6HOHFFLyQGHOD5HGÐSWLPD
FDPELRGHGLUHFFLyQRTXHHOSUHFLRREVHUYDGRVHPDQWHQJD
(QILQDQ]DVQRHVLPSRUWDQWHH[DPLQDUVLXQPRGHORSURQRV FRQVWDQWHHOLQYHUVLRQLVWDQLSLHUGHQLJDQD
WLFDDGHFXDGDPHQWHHOSUHFLRHQXQPRPHQWRGHOWLHPSR
/DUHQWDELOLGDGDQXDOL]DGDGHODHVWUDWHJLDGHQHJRFLDFLyQ
VLQRVLHVFDSD]GHSUHGHFLUORVLQFUHPHQWRVRGHVFHQVRVGH
GHVFULWDDUULEDYDDHVWDUGDGDSRUODVLJXLHQWHH[SUHVLyQ
HVWRVFRQUHODFLyQDXQSHULRGRDQWHULRUHVWDLQIRUPDFLyQHV
PiVUHOHYDQWHSDUDWRPDUGHFLVLRQHVHFRQyPLFDV 3HVDUDQ  
\7LPPHUPDQQ 8QLQGLFDGRUVHQFLOORSDUDPHGLU     
HVWHDVSHFWRHVHOHVWDGtVWLFRGHFDPELRGHGLUHFFLyQ &' 
TXHSUHVHQWDHOSRUFHQWDMHGHYHFHVTXHHOPRGHORSUHGLFH
DFHUWDGDPHQWHXQDXPHQWRRFDtGDGHODYDULDEOH 'RQGH 0 HVHOQ~PHURGHGtDVGHQHJRFLDFLyQHQXQDxR
DOJXQRV DXWRUHVHVFRJHQRWURVGtDV< 7 HVHO
(Q XQ FRQWH[WR GH PRGHORV GH QHJRFLDFLyQ ODV PHGLGDV WLHPSRTXHGXUyODLQYHUVLyQH[SUHVDGRHQGtDV
DQWHULRUHVQRGDQFXHQWDGHODUHQWDELOLGDGTXHSURGXFH
/RVLQYHUVLRQLVWDVSUHILHUHQTXHHOFUHFLPLHQWRGHVXFDSLWDO
XQDHVWUDWHJLDGHWHUPLQDGD$XWRUHVFRPR.XDQ\/LX  
VHDSRVLWLYR\FRQVWDQWHODVJUDQGHVYDULDFLRQHVHQODVUHQWD
DILUPDQTXHXQWHPDGHLQYHVWLJDFLyQHQILQDQ]DVQHXURQDOHV
ELOLGDGHVVRQSHOLJURVDVSRUHVWDUD]yQHVSUHIHULEOHDMXVWDUOD
GHEHH[SORUDUODSRVLELOLGDGGHTXHORVDOJRULWPRVGHHQWUH
UHQWDELOLGDGSRUXQDPHGLGDGHOULHVJR/DUD]yQGH6KDUSH
QDPLHQWRXVHQFRPRIXQFLRQHVGHSpUGLGDODUHQWDELOLGDG
HVXQLQGLFDGRUTXHGDFXHQWDGHHVWR\SHUPLWHFRPSDUDU
DQXDOL]DGDGHXQDHVWUDWHJLDGHQHJRFLDFLyQHQOXJDUGHO
GRVHVWUDWHJLDVGHQHJRFLDFLyQHVWHVHFDOFXODGLYLGLHQGR
HUURUFXDGUDGRPHGLR
ODUHQWDELOLGDGDQXDOL]DGDSRUODGHVYLDFLyQHVWiQGDUGHORV
UHWRUQRV WDPELpQDQXDOL]DGD 


´$VRXUHVWLPDWLRQPHWKRGVDUHEDVHGRQ06(PLQLPL]DWLRQZKLFKLVQRWDORVVIXQFWLRQIRUVLJQSUHGLFWLRQVLWZRXOGEHYHU\LQWHUHVWLQJWRFRQVWUXFW
HVWLPDWLRQPHWKRGVEDVHGRQDVXLWDEOHORVVIXQFWLRQDQGFRPSDUHWKHUHVXOWLQJVLJQSUHGLFWLRQUHVXOWVµ>.XDQ\/LXSS@

(VWRVVXSXHVWRVLPSOLFDQTXHQRH[LVWHQUHJODVSDUDDGPLQLVWUDUHOULHVJRHQHOPDQHMRGHOFDSLWDO WDOHVFRPRHOWDNHSURILWRHOVWRSORVV QL
UHJODVGHHQWUDGD\VDOLGDHQHOPHUFDGR

 5(9,67$,1*(1,(5Ì$(,19(67,*$&,Ð192/1R',&,(0%5('(  


9,//$0,/'(/*$'2

$QWHFHGHQWHV YDOLGDFLyQ/DYDULDEOHGHVDOLGDIXHODWDVDGHFUHFLPLHQWRGH
ODGLYLVDHQIXQFLyQGHUH]DJRVGHHOODPLVPD\GHORVUHWRUQRV
+D\WUDEDMRVDQWHULRUHVHQORVTXHVHH[SORUDHOSRGHUSUH GHORVtQGLFHVGHSUHFLRVGHEROVDVLPSRUWDQWHVFRPRHO'$;
GLFWLYRGHODVUHGHVQHXURQDOHVHQORVPHUFDGRVGHGLYLVDV \HO672;;(PSOHDURQXQDUHGQHXURQDOFRQIXQFLRQHV
.XDQ\/LX  WUDEDMDURQFRQODVWDVDV&+)86''(0 ORJtVWLFDV\ODVHQWUHQDURQSRUSURSDJDFLyQLQYHUVD3UREDURQ
86'*%386'86'-3<\HOGyODUFDQDGLHQVHODPXHVWUD HOGHVHPSHxRILQDQFLHURGHODHVWUDWHJLDHQODTXHVHFRPSUDQ
XVDGDSRUHOORVWRPDEDGDWRVGLDULRVGHORVSUHFLRVDORVTXH HXURVVLHOSURQyVWLFRGHODUHGHVSRVLWLYR\VHYHQGHQHXURV
HOPHUFDGRDEUHHQOD%ROVDGH1HZ<RUNGHVGHHOSULPHUR VLVXFHGHORFRQWUDULR\FRPSDUDURQORVUHVXOWDGRVFRQRWURV
GHPDU]RGHKDVWDHOGHHQHURGHHQWRWDO WLSRVGHPRGHORVFRPRHO$50$ODUHJUHVLyQORJtVWLFD\OD
REVHUYDFLRQHV1RXVDURQFRPRYDULDEOHGHVDOLGDHO HVWUDWHJLD0$&'(OORVFRQFOX\HURQTXHHQWpUPLQRVGHOHUURU
QLYHOGHODWDVDGHFDPELRVLQRVXQLYHOORJDUtWPLFR\FRPR FXDGUDGRPHGLRQRKD\PXFKDGLIHUHQFLDHQWUHORV$50$\
YDULDEOHVGHHQWUDGDFRQVLGHUDURQ~QLFDPHQWHHQWUHXQR\ ODVUHGHVSHURODUHQWDELOLGDGGHODUHGHVVHLVYHFHVVXSHULRU
VHLVUH]DJRVGHODPLVPDVHULH8VDURQGRVWLSRVGHUHGHV DO$50$HVHOGREOHGHOPRGHORORJtVWLFR\HVVyORXQSRFR
ODVHVWiWLFDVRPXOWLFDSD\ODVGLQiPLFDVRUHFXUUHQWHVFRQ VXSHULRUDODHVWUDWHJLD0$&'
IXQFLRQHVGHDFWLYDFLyQORJtVWLFD HQWUHGRV\VHLVQHXURQDV 
HQODFDSDRFXOWD\XQDIXQFLyQGHLGHQWLGDGHQODFDSD (O SUHVHQWH WUDEDMR VH GLIHUHQFLD GH ORV DQWHULRUHV SRUTXH
GH VDOLGD (O GHVHPSHxR GH ORV PRGHORV IXH FRPSDUDGR FRQVLGHUDXQDIUHFXHQFLDPHQRU6HSURSRQHXQPRGHORGH
FRQHOGHPRGHORV$ULPDHQFRQWUDQGRTXHQRH[LVWHXQD QHJRFLDFLyQSDUDLQWHUYDORVGHVHLVKRUDV6HFRPSOHPHQWDQ
GLIHUHQFLDVRUSUHQGHQWHHQWUHHOSURQyVWLFRGHOFDPELRGH ORVDQWHULRUHVHVWXGLRVDOSURSRQHUXQPHFDQLVPRGHHQWUH
GLUHFFLyQGHORVGRVWLSRVGHPRGHORV QDPLHQWRTXHSHUPLWHDMXVWDUORVSHVRVGHODUHGQHXURQDO
XVDQGRFRPRIXQFLyQREMHWLYRODUHQWDELOLGDGRLQGLFDGRUHV
<DR\7DQ  WUDEDMDURQFRQODVPLVPDVGLYLVDVTXH.XDQ GHHVWD6HHPSOHDXQDIXQFLyQGHDFWLYDFLyQSRFRXVDGD
\/LXH[FOX\HQGRHOGyODUFDQDGLHQVH\DJUHJDQGRHOGyODU FRPRORHVODGREOHH[SRQHQFLDOR*XPEHO<HQODVHOHFFLyQ
DXVWUDOLDQR(QHVWHWUDEDMRVHH[DPLQyHOGHVHPSHxRGH GHORVPRGHORVVHXVDODWpFQLFDPXOWLYDULDQWHGHODQiOLVLVGH
XQDHVWUDWHJLDGHQHJRFLDFLyQFRQEDVHHQODVVLPXODFLRQHV FRPSRQHQWHV SULQFLSDOHV $&3  SDUD VHOHFFLRQDU HO PHMRU
GHUHGHVQHXURQDOHVHQWUHQDGDVFRQD\XGDGHODOJRULWPR PRGHORGHQWURGHYDULRVHQWUHQDGRVDWHQGLHQGRDP~OWLSOHV
GHSURSDJDFLyQLQYHUVD/RVDXWRUHVWHQLHQGRHQFXHQWDHO FULWHULRV
HIHFWRGHORVFRVWRVGHWUDQVDFFLyQFRQVLGHUDURQXQPRGHOR
SDUDUHDOL]DURSHUDFLRQHVFDGDYLHUQHVHOORVFRQVWUX\HURQ 0HWRGRORJtD
XQD PXHVWUD GH  REVHUYDFLRQHV FRQ ORV SUHFLRV GH
FLHUUHGHVGHHOGHPD\RGHKDVWDHOGHMXOLRGH 6HHOLJLyXQDPXHVWUDGHREVHUYDFLRQHVFRQIUHFXHQFLD
(OSHULRGRGHHQWUHQDPLHQWRWRPDEDFLIUDVKDVWDHO HQKRUDVGH/RQGUHV6HGLYLGLyODPXHVWUDHQXQSHULRGR
GHMXOLRGH$GLIHUHQFLDGH.XDQ\/LXWUDEDMDURQ GHHQWUHQDPLHQWR GHORVGDWRV \RWURGHSUXHED HO
FRQHOQLYHOGHODWDVDGHFDPELR\GHLJXDOPDQHUDTXH UHVWDQWH FRPRORUHFRPLHQGDQODVUHIHUHQFLDVFRQVXO
HOORVFRPSDUDURQVXVPRGHORVFRQWUDXQ$ULPDSHURDTXt WDGDV²HQSDUWLFXODU*LEE  \.U|VH\9DQGHU6PDJW
SUHVWDURQ HVSHFLDO pQIDVLV D LQGLFDGRUHV GH GHVHPSHxR  ²SDUDHYLWDUHOSUREOHPDGHVREUHHQWUHQDPLHQWR(O
ILQDQFLHURVREUHODHVWUDWHJLDGHQHJRFLDFLyQVLPXODGD3RU GHODPXHVWUD GDWRV SDUDHOHQWUHQDPLHQWRGHOD
HMHPSORFRPSDUDURQHOUHVXOWDGRILQDQFLHURGHQHJRFLDU UHGFRPSUHQGHUHJLVWURVGHOGHGLFLHPEUHGHDODV
FRQORVSURQyVWLFRVGHODUHGFRQODUHQWDELOLGDGGHFRPSUDU KRUDVKDVWDHOGHGLFLHPEUHGHODODVKRUDV
DOLQLFLRGHOSHULRGR\YHQGHUKDVWDHOILQDO DHVWDHVWUDWHJLD GtDHQTXHODFRWL]DFLyQ(8586'UHJLVWUyVXYDORUPi[LPR
VHOHOODPDFRPSUDU\PDQWHQHU /DVUHGHVTXHHQWUHQDURQ KLVWyULFR(OUHVWDQWHGHODPXHVWUD GDWRV YDKDVWD
ODVXVDURQFRPRYDULDEOHVGHHQWUDGDUH]DJRVGHODVHULH\ HOGHHQHURGHDODVKRUDVGH/RQGUHV(QOD)LJXUD
SURPHGLRVPyYLOHVGHODVPLVPDV<DR 7DQFRQFOX\HURQ VHHQFXHQWUDHOFRQMXQWRGHSDWURQHVGHHQWUHQDPLHQWR\
TXHODUHQWDELOLGDGGHODHVWUDWHJLDVLPXODGDFRQODVUHGHV GHSUXHED
QHXURQDOHV SDUD WRGDV ODV GLYLVDV H[FHSWR SDUD HO
86'-3<VRQVXSHULRUHVDOUHWRUQRUHSRUWDGRSRUODV
HVWUDWHJLDVGHUHIHUHQFLD\UHFRPHQGDURQUHHQWUHQDU
FRQIUHFXHQFLDORVPRGHORVQHXURQDOHVSRUORPHQRV
FDGDVHPDQDV7DPELpQVXJLHUHQTXHORVWUDEDMRV
IXWXURVVHFRQFHQWUHQHQUHDOL]DUHOHQWUHQDPLHQWRGH
ODVUHGHVWHQLHQGRFRPRREMHWLYRODPD[LPL]DFLyQGH
ODUHQWDELOLGDGGHXQDHVWUDWHJLDGHQHJRFLDFLyQ

'XQLV\:LOOLDQV  WUDEDMDURQODWDVDGHFDPELR


(8586'HQIUHFXHQFLDGLDULDXVDURQXQDPXHVWUDGH
SUHFLRVGHFLHUUHGHOGHRFWXEUHGHKDVWDHO
GHPD\RGHSDUDHOHQWUHQDPLHQWR\GHO )LJXUD3HUtRGRGHHQWUHQDPLHQWR\SUXHEDSDUDHO(8586'
GHPD\RGHKDVWDHOGHMXOLRGHSDUDOD

5(9,67$,1*(1,(5Ì$(,19(67,*$&,Ð192/1R',&,(0%5('(   


(175(1$0,(172'(81$5('1(8521$/08/7,&$3$3$5$/$7$6$'(&$0%,2(852'Ð/$5 (8586'

)XHURQ HQWUHQDGDV  UHGHV QHXURQDOHV  XVDQGR   /RJtVWLFDHQFDSDRFXOWD\GHVDOLGD VHOODPy/RJ 


YDULDEOHV IXQGDPHQWDOHV \  FRQ LQGLFDGRUHV WpFQLFRV   *XPEHOHQFDSDRFXOWD\GHVDOLGD VHOODPy*XPEHO 
$ODVSULPHUDVVHOHVGLRHOQRPEUHGHPRGHORVWLSR,\D
  /RJtVWLFDHQFDSDRFXOWD\*XPEHOHQFDSDGHVDOLGD VH
ODVVHJXQGDVGHPRGHORVWLSR,,(QWRGRVORVPRGHORVVH
OODPy/RJJXPEHO 
FRQVLGHUDURQ GRV YDULDEOHV GH VDOLGD HO SURQyVWLFR GH OD
FRWL]DFLyQGHO(8586'HQODKRUDVLJXLHQWH\GHQWURGH (QORVPRGHORVHQWUHQDGRVODUHJODGHQHJRFLDFLyQTXHVH
VHLVKRUDV6HXVyHODOJRULWPRGHSURSDJDFLyQLQYHUVDFRQ HYDOXyIXH
WDVDGHDSUHQGL]DMH(OQ~PHURGHpSRFDVIXH6H
6L \ W + > \ W (QWRQFHVHQ W VHFRPSUDQHXURVDOSUHFLR
LPSOHPHQWyHOHQWUHQDPLHQWRHQ0DWODEKDFLHQGRTXHHO
(85  86'W
Q~PHURVHPLOODGHOJHQHUDGRUGHQ~PHURVDOHDWRULRVGHOD

PiTXLQDIXHUDHOPLVPRHQWRGRVORVHQWUHQDPLHQWRVHVWR 26L \ W + < \ W (QWRQFHVHQ W VHYHQGHQHXURVDOSUHFLR
FRQ HO SURSyVLWR GH KDFHU FRPSDUDFLRQHV HQWUH HOORV $ (85  86'W
FRQWLQXDFLyQVHGHVFULEHQDPERVWLSRVGHPRGHORV\HQOD
7DEODVHUHVXPHQVXVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDV 7DEOD0RGHORV(QWUHQDGRV

D  0RGHORVTXH,QFOX\HQFRPRHQWUDGDVODVYDULDEOHV
IXQGDPHQWDOHV PRGHORVWLSR, HQSULQFLSLRVH
XVDURQ FRPR YDULDEOHV GH HQWUDGD ORV SUHFLRV
GHFLHUUHGH(8586'UH]DJDGRVHQHOWLHPSR
<D TXH SDUD OD SHULRGLFLGDG TXH VH PDQHMD
XQDKRUD QRHVSRVLEOHFRQVWUXLUXQDVHULHFRQ
YDULDEOHV HFRQyPLFDV UHOHYDQWHV FRPR OD EDVH
PRQHWDULDRODFXHQWDGHFDSLWDOHVGHFRUWRSOD]R
VHWRPyHQVXOXJDU\HQODPLVPDSHULRGLFLGDG
ODVHULHGHODWDVDGHFDPELR86'-3<\(85-3<
GHELGRDTXHHO-DSyQVHKDFDUDFWHUL]DGRSRU
WHQHUJUDQLPSRUWDQFLDHQODLQYHUVLyQGHFRUWR
SOD]RHQ(VWDGRV8QLGRV\HQODEDODQ]DFRPHU
FLDOGHOD&RPXQLGDG(XURSHD7RGRVORVYDORUHV
GHODVYDULDEOHVGHHQWUDGD\VDOLGDVHUHHVFDODURQ
HQWUHFHUR\XQR
$FDGDDMXVWHVHOHFDOFXODQGLH]LQGLFDGRUHV
E  0RGHORV TXH LQFOX\HQ FRPR HQWUDGDV LQGLFDGRUHV GHO
DQiOLVLVWpFQLFR PRGHORVWLSR,, VHXVDURQORVLQGLFDGR  /DUDt]GHOHUURUFXDGUDGRPHGLR 5(&0 FRQORVGDWRV
UHV75,;\HORVFLODGRUHVWRFiVWLFR . FRQVWUXLGRVSDUD GHHQWUHQDPLHQWR$PHQRUYDORUHVPHMRUHODMXVWH
HO(8586'\SDUDHO(85-3<(OtQGLFH75,;VHFDOFXOy
 5(&0FRQORVGDWRVGHOFRQMXQWRGHSUXHED
FRQXQYDORUGHODPEGDLJXDODSDUDODSULPHUDWDVDGH
FDPELR\SDUDOD~OWLPDFRQ(VWRVYDORUHVGHODPEGD  5(&0WRWDOTXHHVODVXPDGHODVGRVFLIUDVDQWHULRUHV
VRQORVTXHJHQHUDURQPD\RUUHQWDELOLGDGHQHOSHULRGR (VWH LQGLFDGRU VHOHFFLRQD PRGHORV TXH VHDQ EXHQRV
GHHQWUHQDPLHQWRFXDQGRVHHPSOHyODHVWUDWHJLD75,; WDQWRHQHOHQWUHQDPLHQWRFRPRHQODSUXHED
'HLJXDOIRUPDORVSDWURQHVGHHQWUHQDPLHQWRVHOOHYDURQ  (OtQGLFH7KHLOFRQGDWRVGHOFRQMXQWRGHSUXHED(VWH
DXQLQWHUYDORHQWUHFHUR\XQR LQGLFDGRU D PHGLGD TXH VH DFHUFD D FHUR VHxDOD XQ
(QOD7DEODVHUHVXPHQORVPRGHORVHQWUHQDGRVGLV PD\RU SRGHU SUHGLFWLYR VH FRQVWUX\H FRQ EDVH HQ OD
FULPLQDGRVSRUVXVYDULDEOHVGHHQWUDGDV\SRUODVIXQFLRQHV VLJXLHQWHH[SUHVLyQ
GHDFWLYDFLyQXVDGDVHQODVFDSDVRFXOWD\GHVDOLGD/DVGRV
~OWLPDVFROXPQDVGHODWDEODPXHVWUDQORVUH]DJRVXVDGRV
SDUDODVYDULDEOHVGHHQWUDGD\HOQ~PHURGHQHXURQDVHQ
FDSDRFXOWDTXHVHXWLOL]y

6HFRQVLGHUDURQGRVIXQFLRQHVGHDFWLYDFLyQODORJtVWLFD\
*XPEHO RYDORUH[WUHPR 3DUDFDGDDUTXLWHFWXUDVHXVDURQ
WUHVFRPELQDFLRQHVGHHVWDVIXQFLRQHV


(O75,;HVHOQRPEUHSDUDODHVWUDWHJLD´WULSOHSURPHGLRPyYLOH[SRQHQFLDOµTXHFRQVLVWHHQUHDOL]DUXQVXDYL]DPLHQWRVREUHXQDVHULHXVDQGR
XQIDFWRUGHGHFDLPLHQWRODPEGD$OSURPHGLRVHOHDSOLFDQXHYDPHQWHHOSURPHGLRPyYLOXQD\RWUDYH]/DVHxDOGHQHJRFLDFLyQFRQVLVWH
HQFRPSDUDUHOYDORUVXDYL]DGRFRQXQSHULRGRDWUiVVLHVPiVDOWRVHFRPSUD\VHYHQGHVLVXFHGHORFRQWUDULR(O´RVFLODGRUHVWRFiVWLFRµ
FRQVWUX\HXQDVHULHKLVWyULFDDSDUWLUGHOSUHFLRPiVDOWRPiVEDMR\GHFLHUUHHQXQDMRUQDGDGHQHJRFLDFLyQVHGLYLGHODGLIHUHQFLDGHOFLHUUH
FRQHOSUHFLRPiVEDMRHQWUHODGLIHUHQFLDGHOSUHFLRPiVDOWRFRQHOPiVEDMRHVWDUD]yQRIUHFHXQDLGHDGHVLODWHQGHQFLDGHOSUHFLRHQXQD
VHFXHQFLDGHURQGDVGHQHJRFLDFLyQHVFUHFLHQWHRGHFUHFLHQWHGHSHQGLHQGRGHHVWRVHFRPSUDRYHQGH

 5(9,67$,1*(1,(5Ì$(,19(67,*$&,Ð192/1R',&,(0%5('(  


9,//$0,/'(/*$'2

 (O FULWHULR GH LQIRUPDFLyQ GH $LNDLNH $,&  FRQ GDWRV (O$&3SHUPLWHODUHGXFFLyQGHODGLPHQVLRQDOLGDGGHXQ
GHO FRQMXQWR GH SUXHED (VWH LQGLFDGRU DGHPiV GH FRQMXQWRPXOWLYDULDGRGHGDWRVOOHYDQGRODVREVHUYDFLRQHV
D\XGDU D VHOHFFLRQDU HO PRGHOR FRQ HO PHQRU HUURU DXQQXHYRVLVWHPDGHHMHVTXHFRQVHUYDODPLVPDYDULDEL
FXDGUDGRPHGLREXVFDHOPRGHORPiVSDUVLPRQLRVRR OLGDGHVWRVQXHYRVHMHVVRQFRPELQDFLRQHVOLQHDOHVGHODV
VHDDTXHOTXHFRQPHQRVSDUiPHWURV SHVRV WHQJDXQ YDULDEOHVRULJLQDOHV(OSURFHGLPLHQWRSDUWHGHODREWHQFLyQ
EXHQGHVHPSHxRSUHGLFWLYR(QWUHPHQRUVHDHOYDORU GHORVYDORUHVSURSLRVGHODPDWUL]GHYDULDQ]DV\FRYDULDQ]DV
GHOLQGLFDGRUHVPiVSUHIHULEOHHOPRGHORVHFDOFXODGH GHORVGDWRV(OYHFWRUSURSLRDVRFLDGRDOYDORUSURSLRPiV
DFXHUGRFRQODVLJXLHQWHIyUPXOD JUDQGHHVHOTXHUHVXPHODPD\RUSDUWHGHODYDULDELOLGDG
JOREDOGHORVGDWRVHVWHSRUFHQWDMHGHYDULDQ]DH[SOLFDGD
HVLJXDODOYDORUSURSLRGLYLGLGRSRUODVXPDGHWRGRVORV
YDORUHV SURSLRV REWHQLGRV (QWUH PiV GHSHQGHQFLD H[LVWD
HQWUHODVYDULDEOHVPD\RUVHUiHVWDSURSRUFLyQ
'RQGH S HVHOQ~PHURGHSHVRVGHODUHGTXHHODOJRULWPR
GHHQWUHQDPLHQWRGHEHDMXVWDU\ 1 HVHOQ~PHURWRWDOGH (Q HVWH FDVR HV LQGLFDGR XVDU $&3 SRUTXH KD\ EDVWDQWH
GDWRVHQHOFRQMXQWRGHSUXHED GHSHQGHQFLD HQWUH ODV YDULDEOHV TXH PLGHQ HO DMXVWH GH
ORVGDWRVHQHOPRGHORQHXURQDOHQWpUPLQRVGHOHUURUGHO
 (OFULWHULRGHLQIRUPDFLyQGH6FKZDU] 6,& FRQGDWRV
SURQyVWLFRGHOFDPELRGHGLUHFFLyQ\GHODUHQWDELOLGDGGH
GHOFRQMXQWRGHSUXHED7LHQHODPLVPDLQWHUSUHWDFLyQ
TXHHOFULWHULR$,&SHURHVWHFDVWLJDPXFKRPiVDORV ODHVWUDWHJLD$ODSOLFDUODFRPELQDFLyQOLQHDOVXJHULGDSRU
PRGHORVVREUHSDUDPHWUL]DGRV6HFDOFXODDVt HOYHFWRUSURSLRGHODFRPSRQHQWHSULQFLSDOVHREWLHQHXQ
SXQWDMHFRQHOFXDOVHSXHGHQRUJDQL]DUORVPRGHORV

5HVXOWDGRV
(QHO$&3VHFRQVLGHUDURQ~QLFDPHQWHODVYDULDEOHVUHQWD
 (OFDPELRGHGLUHFFLyQ &' FRQGDWRVGHOFRQMXQWRGH ELOLGDGDQXDOL]DGD 5$ UD]yQGH6KDUSHSURQyVWLFRHQHO
SUXHED (V XQ SRUFHQWDMH TXH HQWUH PiV JUDQGH VHD FDPELRGHGLUHFFLyQ &' \HOFULWHULRGHLQIRUPDFLyQGH
PiVIDYRUDEOHHVODSUHGLFFLyQGHOPRGHOR 6FKZDU] 6,& (QOD7DEODVHPXHVWUDQORVYDORUHVSURSLRV
 (OFRHILFLHQWHGHDVRFLDFLyQ&FRQGDWRVGHOFRQMXQWR DVRFLDGRVDORVQXHYRVHMHVRFRPSRQHQWHVHOSULPHURGH
GHSUXHED(VXQDPHGLGDGHDVRFLDFLyQFRQVWUXLGDD HOORVUHWLHQHHOGHODLQHUFLD RYDULDQ]D GHOWRWDO
SDUWLUGHOHVWDGtVWLFRGHSUXHEDGHOWHVWGHDVRFLDFLyQGH GHGDWRV
3HDUVRQHQHOTXHVHRUJDQL]DQORVGDWRVHQXQDWDEOD
GH FRQWLQJHQFLD [ \ VH DVRFLD OR TXH RFXUUH HQ OD 7DEOD$&30RGHORVWLSRV,\,,
UHDOLGDG HOSUHFLRVXEHREDMD FRQHOSURQyVWLFRGHOD
UHGVLKD\SRFDDVRFLDFLyQHVWHLQGLFDGRUWRPDYDORUHV
SHTXHxRV6REUHHVWDSUXHEDTXHWDPELpQVHFRQRFH
FRPRMLFXDGUDGRVHSXHGHFRQVXOWDUHQ3HxD  
 /DUHQWDELOLGDGDQXDOL]DGD 5$ VHH[SUHVDHQSRUFHQWDMH (QOD7DEODVHVHxDODHOYHFWRUSURSLRDVRFLDGRDODSULPHUD
\KDEODELHQGHODHVWUDWHJLDGHQHJRFLDFLyQHQWUHPiV FRPSRQHQWH6HREVHUYDTXHHQODFRQVWUXFFLyQGHOQXHYR
DOWDVHD HMHORVLQGLFDGRUHV5$\UD]yQGH6KDUSHUHFLEHQPiVLP
 <ODUD]yQGH6KDUSHFRQGDWRVGHOFRQMXQWRGHSUXHED SRUWDQFLDTXHHOtQGLFH&'(OFULWHULR6,&WLHQHPHQRUSHVR
TXH HQ OD PHGLGD HQ TXH VHD PiV DOWD LQGLFD TXH OD HQODFRQIRUPDFLyQGHODFRPSRQHQWHSULQFLSDO
HVWUDWHJLDHVPiVUHQWDEOH\PHQRVULHVJRVD
7DEOD3ULPHUD&RPSRQHQWHPRGHORVWLSRV,\,,
(QODPD\RUtDGHWUDEDMRVFRQVXOWDGRVSRUHMHPSOR'XQLV
:LOOLDQV  ODPHMRUUHGVHHOLJHUHDOL]DQGRXQRUGH
QDPLHQWRSRUODIXQFLyQGHSpUGLGDODUHGFRQPHQRUYDORU
GHO(&0HVHOPHMRUPRGHORQRREVWDQWHWDPELpQH[LVWH
LQWHUpVHQTXHRWURVLQGLFDGRUHVWHQJDQVLPXOWiQHDPHQWHXQ
EXHQGHVHPSHxR(QHVWHWUDEDMRVHHPSOHyHODQiOLVLVGH (QHO$QH[RVHH[KLEHQORVSULPHURVPRGHORVVHOHFFLR
FRPSRQHQWHVSULQFLSDOHV $&3 SDUDVHOHFFLRQDUODPHMRUUHG QDGRVGHDFXHUGRDOSXQWDMHTXHRIUHFHODSULPHUDFRP
QHXURQDOGHQWURGHYDULDVTXH\DKDQVLGRHQWUHQDGDV SRQHQWH(OSULPHURGHHOORV&*80%(/FRQDUTXLWHFWXUD


+XERPRGHORVGHWLSR,,FRPR%/2**80%(/FRQGLH]\GRFHQHXURQDVHQFDSDRFXOWD\HO%/2**80%(/FRQGRVQHXURQDVHQFDSD
RFXOWDTXHWXYLHURQUHQWDELOLGDGHVDQXDOL]DGDVVXSHULRUHVDQRREVWDQWHQRVHWXYLHURQHQFXHQWDSRUTXHHVWDVUHGHVQR´DSUHQGLHURQµFRQ
HOHQWUHQDPLHQWRSUXHEDGHHOORVRQVXVSpVLPRVDMXVWHVHQWpUPLQRVGHOHUURUFXDGUDGRPHGLR

6LODSUHGLFFLyQGHOPRGHORIXHUDDFHUWDGDHQWRGRHOFRQMXQWRGHGDWRVGHSUXHEDVHORJUDUtDXQDUHQWDELOLGDGPi[LPDSRVLEOH
GHODQXDO

5(9,67$,1*(1,(5Ì$(,19(67,*$&,Ð192/1R',&,(0%5('(   


(175(1$0,(172'(81$5('1(8521$/08/7,&$3$3$5$/$7$6$'(&$0%,2(852'Ð/$5 (8586'

 SURGXFHXQDUHQWDELOLGDGGHODQXDOHVXQ GLFKRFRPSRUWDPLHQWRHQORVRFKRGtDVGHQHJRFLDFLyQGH


PRGHORGHQHJRFLDFLyQDFHSWDEOHVLVHWLHQHHQFXHQWDTXH OD7DEOD
GREODODWDVDGHLQWHUpVGHODQXDOTXHPDQWHQtDOD5HVHUYD
)HGHUDOGH(VWDGRV8QLGRVHQHVHPRPHQWR

/D7DEODGHVFULEHFXiOHVVRQODVVHxDOHVGHQHJRFLDFLyQ
TXHSURGXFHODUHGQHXURQDOVHOHFFLRQDGD(OPRGHORRIUHFH
VHxDOHVFDGDVHLVKRUDV(OYDORUHQODSHQ~OWLPDFROXPQD
VLJQLILFD YHQGHU HXURV \ HO YDORU  VLJQLILFD FRPSUDUORV
(VWDV WUDQVDFFLRQHV VH KDFHQ HQ WpUPLQRV GH GyODUHV \ OD
QHJRFLDFLyQ LQLFLD HO SULPHU GtD GHO SHULRGR GH SUXHED
GHGLFLHPEUHGHDODVKRUDVGH/RQGUHV FRQ
XQDLQYHUVLyQGHXQGyODU(QOD~OWLPDFROXPQDVHWLHQHHO
UHJLVWURGHFyPRHYROXFLRQDHOFDSLWDOGHOLQYHUVLRQLVWDFRQ )LJXUD(YROXFLyQGHOFDSLWDO5HG&*80%(/  
FDGDVHxDOGHQHJRFLDFLyQ HWDSD

7DEOD6HxDOHVGHQHJRFLDFLyQGHODUHG&*80%(/ &RQFOXVLRQHV
 HWDSD
(O PHUFDGR GH OD GLYLVD (8586'
HVHVSHFLDOPHQWHOtTXLGR\PXHVWUD
WHQHUODVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHHILFLHQFLD
TXH VXEUD\D )DPD 1R REVWDQWH
HO PRGHOR QHXURQDO VHOHFFLRQDGR
HQ HVWH WUDEDMR HQVHxD TXH Vt HV
SRVLEOH XVDQGR HO SURQyVWLFR GH
XQDUHGQHXURQDO\VLHQGRILHODXQD
HVWUDWHJLD GH QHJRFLDFLyQ  REWHQHU
UHQWDELOLGDGHV SRVLWLYDV GH PDQHUD
VRVWHQLGDHQHOPHUFDGR)RUH[/DV
LQYHVWLJDFLRQHVUHFLHQWHVDYDQ]DQHQ
HVWHFDPLQRGLFKRVWUDEDMRVWLHQHQ
SRUREMHWLYRDXWRPDWL]DUODVGHFLVLR
QHVTXHWRPDXQWUDGHUGHVWDFDQGR
ODVVLJXLHQWHVYHQWDMDV

 8Q WUDGHU HVWi JREHUQDGR SRU


VXVHPRFLRQHV\HQPRPHQWRVGH
HXIRULDRGHSiQLFRWRPDGHFLVLRQHV
DSUHVXUDGDV 8Q VLVWHPD DXWRPDWL
]DGR HVWi OLEUH GH HPRFLRQHV \ VX
3DUD LOXVWUDU FyPR XQ LQYHUVLRQLVWD WRPD SRVLFLRQHV FRQ GHVHPSHxRSXHGHVHUSUREDGRDSULRUL
HVWDVVHxDOHVFRQVLGHUHHOQRYHQRWUDGHGHOD7DEODHOGtD  +D\GHFLVLRQHVGHFRQWUROGHULHVJRTXHORVWUDGHUVWLHQGHQ
FXDWURGHHQHURGHDODVKRUDVODUHGSURQRVWLFDTXH DSDVDUSRUDOWR\ODVFRPLVLRQLVWDVGHEROVDQHFHVLWDQGLV
HOYDORUGHODFRWL]DFLyQHQXQDKRUDVHUiGH\VHLV SRQHUGHXQD'LUHFFLyQGHPHGLFLyQ\FRQWUROGHULHVJRV
KRUDVGHVSXpVGHFRQHVWDLQIRUPDFLyQODUHJODGH ILQDQFLHURVHQFDUJDGDGHSRQHUXQOtPLWHDORVPRQWRVFRQ
QHJRFLDFLyQVHxDODTXHHOLQYHUVLRQLVWDGHEHFRPSUDUHXURV ORVTXHORVWUDGHUVKDFHQQHJRFLDFLRQHVWDPELpQILMDQXQ
DOSUHFLRGHHVHPRPHQWR DHVWDRSHUDFLyQVHOHUHSUHVHQWD YDORUPi[LPRGHSpUGLGDDSDUWLUGHOFXDOHOWUDGHUVHYH
SRUXQHQODSHQ~OWLPDFROXPQD 3DVDGDVVLHWHKRUDVVH REOLJDGRDOLTXLGDUODQHJRFLDFLyQHMHFXWDGD(VWDVGHFL
VDEHTXHORVYDORUHVTXHWRPyHIHFWLYDPHQWHHO(8586' VLRQHVGHFRQWUROGHULHVJRVSXHGHQVHUVLPXODGDVSRUHO
XQDKRUD\VHLVKRUDVGHVSXpVIXHURQ\HV PLVPRVLVWHPDDXWRPDWL]DGRGHWUDGLQJ
GHFLU TXH OD GHFLVLyQ DFHUWDGD KXELHVH VLGR YHQGHU HQ 8QVLVWHPDGHQHJRFLDFLyQDXWRPDWL]DGR 61$ HVXQFRQ
OXJDUGHFRPSUDUSRUHVWDUD]yQHOLQYHUVLRQLVWDWLHQHXQD MXQWRELHQGHILQLGRGHUHJODVTXHVHHVWDEOHFHQSDUDGHWHU
SpUGLGDFRQHVWHWUDGHHVSHUDTXHOOHJXHQODVKRUDVGHO PLQDU XQD HVWUDWHJLD GH RSHUDFLyQ HQ XQ PHUFDGR (VWRV
PLVPRGtD\HMHFXWDRWUDVHxDOFRQODWRWDOLGDGGHOFDSLWDO VLVWHPDVGHEHQILMDUFRPRPtQLPRODVVLJXLHQWHVUHJODV
DFXPXODGRTXHOOHYDKDVWDHQWRQFHV\DVtVXFHVLYDPHQWH
KDVWDTXHVHDFDEHHOSHULRGRGHQHJRFLDFLyQ/RVDXPHQWRV  &XiQGR HQWUDU DO PHUFDGR HVWDEOHFHU XQD RUGHQ GH
\GLVPLQXFLRQHVGHOFDSLWDOFRQFDGDWUDGHGHVFULEHQODHYR FRPSUD R YHQWD HV GHFLU D TXp QLYHO GHO SUHFLR GHO
OXFLyQGHODLQYHUVLyQGHOFOLHQWH(QOD)LJXUDVHREVHUYD DFWLYRHOWUDGHUGHEHFRPSUDURYHQGHU

 5(9,67$,1*(1,(5Ì$(,19(67,*$&,Ð192/1R',&,(0%5('(  


9,//$0,/'(/*$'2

 $GPLQLVWUDFLyQGHOGLQHUR PRQH\PDQDJHPHQW HVWDEOH (QHVWHWUDEDMRVHKDQXWLOL]DGRODVUHGHVQHXURQDOHVPXO


FHUFXiQWRGLQHURGHVXFDSLWDOXQWUDGHUHVWiGLVSXHVWR WLFDSDSDUDFRQVWUXLUXQ61$TXHVLUYDSDUDRSHUDUHQHO
DDUULHVJDUHQFDGDQHJRFLDFLyQ PHUFDGR GHO (8586' (Q HO PRGHOR HQWUHQDGR DTXt VH
 &XiQGRVDOLUGHOPHUFDGRHVWDEOHFHUHOPRPHQWRHQ VLPSOLILFDQDOJXQDVGHODVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVTXHGHEHWHQHUXQ
HOTXHXQWUDGHUGHEHOLTXLGDUXQDSRVLFLyQGHFRPSUD 61$ HO PRGHOR VXJHULGR SURGXFH VHxDOHV GH FRPSUD R
RYHQWDHVWDGHFLVLyQSRUORUHJXODUYDGHODPDQRFRQ YHQWD FDGDVHLVKRUDVKD\VHxDOGHFRPSUDVLHOSURQyVWLFR
ODVVLJXLHQWHVGRVUHJODV GHODUHGVHLVKRUDVDGHODQWHHVPD\RUTXHHOSURQyVWLFRGHO
SUHFLRDFWXDO\GHYHQWDVLHVPHQRUQRVHSXHGHOLTXLGDU
 'HWHQHUODVSpUGLGDV VWRSORVV HVWDEOHFHUFXiQWRGLQHUR
XQDSRVLFLyQDQWHVGHODVVHLVKRUDV HQRWUDVSDODEUDVQR
HQWpUPLQRVDEVROXWRVRUHODWLYRVXQWUDGHUHVWiGLVSXHVWR
KD\FDELGDSDUDTXHRSHUHQHOVWRSORVV\HOWDNHSURILW \
DSHUGHUHQXQDQHJRFLDFLyQ
VLHPSUHVHLQYLHUWHODWRWDOLGDGGHOFDSLWDO QRKD\DGPLQLV
 $SURSLDUVH GH ODV JDQDQFLDV WDNH SURILW  HVWDEOHFHU WUDFLyQGHOGLQHUR &RQHVWDVVLPSOLILFDFLRQHVHOREMHWLYR
FXiQWRGLQHURHQWpUPLQRVDEVROXWRVRUHODWLYRVXQWUDGHU HUDFRQVHJXLUXQPRGHORTXHIXQFLRQDVHPX\ELHQFRQHO
HVWiGLVSXHVWRDJDQDUHQXQDQHJRFLDFLyQ SURQyVWLFR\TXHPD[LPL]DUDODUHQWDELOLGDGGHODHVWUDWHJLD
&RPRKHUUDPLHQWDHQODFRQVWUXFFLyQGHXQ61$VHSULYLOH GHQHJRFLDFLyQ6LQHPEDUJRHQODSUiFWLFDODVFRQVLGHUD
JLDDODVUHGHVQHXURQDOHVSRUVXFDSDFLGDGGH´DSUHQGHUµ FLRQHVGHDGPLQLVWUDFLyQGHOGLQHURVRQPX\LPSRUWDQWHV
UHODFLRQHVFRPSOHMDV QROLQHDOHV VXE\DFHQWHVDORVSDWURQHV 'H KHFKR XQD GH ODV SULQFLSDOHV GHVYHQWDMDV GHO PRGHOR
KLVWyULFRVSUHVHQWDGRVSDUDVXHQWUHQDPLHQWR\SXHGHQ´JH HQWUHQDGR HQ HVWH WUDEDMR HV TXH QR VH FRQVLGHUDURQ ORV
QHUDOL]DUµHVGHFLUUHFRQRFHUODVUHODFLRQHVDSUHQGLGDVFRQ FRVWRVGHWUDQVDFFLyQPiVFXDQGRVHWUDWDGHXQVLVWHPD
SDWURQHVGLIHUHQWHVDORVGHHQWUHQDPLHQWR(QFRPSDUDFLyQ GH QHJRFLDFLyQ LQWUDGD\ GRQGH HVWRV SXHGHQ VLJQLILFDU
FRQORVPRGHORVHVWDGtVWLFRVODVUHGHVQHXURQDOHVWLHQHQOD XQD SDUWH LPSRUWDQWH GHO FDSLWDO 3RU HMHPSOR ODV UHGHV
YHQWDMDGHTXHQRUHTXLHUHQXQFRQRFLPLHQWRDSULRULGH HQWUHQDGDVSRU<DR\7DQFRQVLGHUDURQXQFRVWRGHSRU
ODIRUPDIXQFLRQDOHQWUHHQWUDGDV\UHVSXHVWDVDGHPiVODV WUDQVDFFLyQ HQ XQ PRGHOR GH QHJRFLDFLyQ VHPDQDO \ HQ
UHGHVVRQPX\IOH[LEOHVKD\EDVWDQWHVSDUiPHWURV FDSDV ODVUHGHVGH'XQLV\:LOOLDQV  VHDVXPLyXQFRVWRGH
RFXOWDVQHXURQDVHQFDSDRFXOWDWDVDGHDSUHQGL]DMHHWF  SRUWUDGH\DXQDVtODVUHGHVQHXURQDOHVPXHVWUDQ
FRQORVFXDOHVHQVD\DUFXiOHVHOPHMRUPRGHORSDUDXQD XQPHMRUGHVHPSHxRILQDQFLHURTXHRWURVPRGHORV
WDUHDGDGD
/DVHOHFFLyQGHOPRGHORQRVHGHMyHQPDQRVGHODVXEMH
3HURODVUHGHVQHXURQDOHVWDPELpQWLHQHQGHVYHQWDMDV WLYLGDGGHOLQYHVWLJDGRUVLQRTXHFRQD\XGDGHODWpFQLFD
$&3SRUUHGQHXURQDOHQWUHQDGDVHDVLJQyXQDSRQGHUDFLyQ
 3DUDTXLHQHVTXLHUHQHQFRQWUDUXQDUHODFLyQH[SOtFLWD DFXDWURLQGLFDGRUHV ODUHQWDELOLGDGDQXDOL]DGDODUD]yQGH
HQWUHODVYDULDEOHVGHHQWUDGD\ODUHVSXHVWDHOPRGHOR 6KDUSHHOFDPELRGHGLUHFFLyQ\HOFULWHULRGH6FKZDU] 
QHXURQDO SURGXFH XQD H[SUHVLyQ DOWDPHQWH QR OLQHDO \ FRQ HO SXQWDMH ILQDO GH OD FRPELQDFLyQ OLQHDO GH HVWDV
GRQGHORVSHVRVTXHVHRSWLPL]DQHQHOHQWUHQDPLHQWR YDULDEOHV\VXVSRQGHUDGRUHVVHRUJDQL]DURQORVPRGHORV
QRWLHQHQLQWHUSUHWDFLyQDOJXQDFRPRVtODWLHQHQORV ORVTXHWHQtDQXQPD\RUSXQWDMHH[KLEtDQEXHQDVFDUDFWH
FRHILFLHQWHVGHXQPRGHORHVWDGtVWLFR UtVWLFDVHQWpUPLQRVGHHVWDVYDULDEOHV(QODVSRQGHUDFLRQHV
 /DV GHFLVLRQHV GH QHJRFLDFLyQ TXH VH WRPDQ D GLDULR UHVXOWDQWHVVHVXEUD\DODHVFDVDLPSRUWDQFLDTXHWLHQHHO6,&
HQORVPHUFDGRVGHYDORUHVVRQLQPHGLDWDV(QFRQWUDU XQ LQGLFDGRU HQ WpUPLQRV GHO HUURU FXDGUDGR PHGLR  HQ
XQDUHGySWLPDHVXQSURFHVRGH´HQVD\R\HUURUµTXH FRPSDUDFLyQFRQODUHQWDELOLGDGGHORVPRGHORVDMXVWDGRV
FRQVXPHGHPDVLDGRWLHPSRHVWHVHKDFHPiVJUDQGHVL (VWRFRPSUXHEDODDILUPDFLyQGH.XDQ\/LX  TXLH
ODUHGHVPX\FRPSOHMD WLHQHEDVWDQWHVQHXURQDVRFXOWDV  QHVHQIDWL]DQTXHVLHOSURSyVLWRHVODUHQWDELOLGDGGHXQD
\VLDGHPiVHOWDPDxRGHPXHVWUDSDUDHQWUHQDPLHQWR HVWUDWHJLDGHQHJRFLDFLyQODVUHGHVGHEHQVHUHQWUHQDGDV
WDPELpQHVJUDQGH XVDQGRXQDIXQFLyQREMHWLYRTXHGpFXHQWDGHHVWR\QR
 1R H[LVWH XQ SURFHGLPLHQWR UHVSDOGDGR WHyULFDPHQWH HOHUURUFXDGUDGRPHGLR
SDUDGHWHUPLQDUHOQ~PHURGHQHXURQDVHQFDSDRFXOWD
&KHPRWD[LVSXHGHFRQYHUWLUVHHQXQDDOWHUQDWLYDSRGHURVD
QLODVYDULDEOHVGHHQWUDGDFRQPD\RUUHOHYDQFLD\QR
SDUD OD FRQVWUXFFLyQ GH XQ 61$ SXHVWR TXH WLHQH XQDV
VH SXHGH KDFHU LQIHUHQFLD HVWDGtVWLFD SDUD PHGLU OD
SURSLHGDGHVTXHORKDFHQPiVDWUDFWLYRHQILQDQ]DVTXHHO
LPSRUWDQFLDGHORVSHVRVDXQTXH\DKD\WUDEDMRVTXH
DOJRULWPRGHSURSDJDFLyQLQYHUVD(QOD7DEODVHKDFHXQD
HVWXGLDQHVWDSRVLELOLGDG 6DUOH 
FRPSDUDFLyQHQWUHHVWRVGRVPHFDQLVPRVGHHQWUHQDPLHQWR
 /DVXSHUILFLHGHOHUURUSDUDXQDUHGFRPSOHMDHVWiIRU GHXQDUHGQHXURQDO
PDGDSRUPXFKRVPtQLPRVORFDOHVKDFLHQGRTXHVHD
PX\SUREDEOHTXHHODOJRULWPRGHSURSDJDFLyQLQYHUVD /RVWUDEDMRVIXWXURVHQODFRQVWUXFFLyQGH61$XWLOL]DQGR
TXHGHDWUDSDGRHQXQRGHHOORV UHGHVQHXURQDOHVGHEHQDYDQ]DUQRVRORHQODLGHQWLILFD


3DUDODFRQVWUXFFLyQGHXQ61$WDPELpQVHKDQFRQVLGHUDGRORVVLVWHPDVGHOyJLFDERUURVDTXHVLQWHWL]DQODVGHFLVLRQHVGHORVWUDGHUVHQ
UHJODVOyJLFDVRORVVLVWHPDVKtEULGRVTXHFRPELQDQWDQWRODVUHGHVQHXURQDOHVFRPRODOyJLFDERUURVD

5(9,67$,1*(1,(5Ì$(,19(67,*$&,Ð192/1R',&,(0%5('(   


(175(1$0,(172'(81$5('1(8521$/08/7,&$3$3$5$/$7$6$'(&$0%,2(852'Ð/$5 (8586'

FLyQ GH VHxDOHV H[LWRVDV GH QHJRFLDFLyQ VLQR WDPELpQ HQ


ODVLPXODFLyQGHORVSRUFHQWDMHVGHOFDSLWDOFRQORVTXHVH
QHJRFLDFDGDYH]\ORVPRQWRVGHSpUGLGD\JDQDQFLDTXH
XQDHVWUDWHJLDHVWiGLVSXHVWDDWROHUDUHQFDGDWUDGH$QWHV
TXH SURQRVWLFDU ORV QLYHOHV GH SUHFLRV IXWXURV ODV UHGHV
QHXURQDOHVFRPRORVXJLHUHQ:RQJ\7DQ  GHEHQ
DSUHQGHUHVWUDWHJLDVH[LWRVDV\VHUHQWUHQDGDVVHOHFFLRQDGDV
\SUREDGDVSRUVXGHVHPSHxRILQDQFLHUR(QHVWHDVSHFWRHV
GHJUDQXWLOLGDGHODOJRULWPRFKHPRWD[LV SRFDVRQLQJXQD
YH] FLWDGR HQ OD OLWHUDWXUD ILQDQFLHUD  TXH SHUPLWH WHQHU
FRPRIXQFLyQREMHWLYRDODUD]yQGH6KDUSHRDODUHQWD
ELOLGDG DQXDOL]DGD VLQ WHQHU OD GLILFXOWDG GH HQFRQWUDU HO
JUDGLHQWHGHHVWDVIXQFLRQHVHQWpUPLQRVGHORVSHVRVFRPR 
ORUHTXLHUHHODOJRULWPRGHSURSDJDFLyQLQYHUVD

7DEOD&RPSDUDFLyQHQWUHFKHPRWD[LV\SURSDJDFLyQLQYHUVD
&KHPRWD[LV 3URSDJDFLyQLQYHUVD
1RUHTXLHUHGHOFiOFXORGHO 1HFHVLWDHOFiOFXORGHOJUDGLHQWH
JUDGLHQWHGHODIXQFLyQREMHWLYR GHODIXQFLyQREMHWLYRFRQ
FRQUHVSHFWRDORVSHVRV UHVSHFWRDORVSHVRV
3HVHDTXHHVGHIiFLO
LPSOHPHQWDFLyQUHTXLHUHPiV 6XLPSOHPHQWDFLyQHVPiV
LWHUDFLRQHVTXHODSURSDJDFLyQ FRPSOHMDTXHFKHPRWD[LV
LQYHUVD
(VXQPRGHORPiVDGHFXDGR
SDUDUHSUHVHQWDUODDFWLYDFLyQ
(VFXHVWLRQDGRSRUQR
VLQiSWLFD,IQDWXUHRSWLPL]HV
FRPSUREDUVHTXHODDFWLYDFLyQ
WKURXJKUDQGRPZDONVWKHQ
VLQiSWLFDGHOFHUHEURIXQFLRQH
ZHFRQMHWXUHIRUWKHYHUWHEUDWH
GHDFXHUGRDOJUDGLHQWHTXH
EUDLQLWVKRXOGEH*DXVVLDQ
SURSRQHHVWHDOJRULWPR
UDQGRPZDONV%UHPHUPDQQ\
$QGHUVRQ 

$1(;26HOHFFLyQGHUHGHVQHXURQDOHVSRU$&3

%LEOLRJUDItD
%UHPHUPDQQ +- $QGHUVRQ 5: +RZ WKH %UDLQ
$GMXVWV6\QDSVHV²0D\EH(Q$XWRPDWHG5HDVRQLQJ(VVD\V
LQ+RQRURI:RRG\%OHGVRH5REHUW6%R\HU (G %RVWRQ
.OXZHU$FDGHPLF3XEOLVKHUV
'HOJDGR $ ,QWHOLJHQFLD $UWLILFLDO \ 0LQL5RERWV
%RJRWi(FRH(GLFLRQHV
'HOJDGR $ &RQWURO RI 1RQOLQHDU 6\VWHPV 8VLQJ
D6HOI2UJDQLVLQJ1HXUDO1HWZRUN1HXUDO&RPSXWLQJ 
$SSOLFDWLRQV1RSS
'XQLV & :LOOLDQV 0 0RGHOOLQJ DQG 7UDGLQJ WKH
(8586' ([FKDQJH 5DWH 'R 1HXUDO 1HWZRUN 0RGHOV
3HUIRUP%HWWHU"/LYHUSRRO%XVLQHVV6FKRRO:RUNLQJ3DSHU
'LVSRQLEOHHQZZZFLEHIFRP
)DPD ( 7KH %HKDYLRXU RI 6WRFN 0DUNHW 3ULFHV
-RXUQDORI%XVLQHVV1RSS
)DPD((IILFLHQW&DSLWDO0DUNHWV$5HYLHZRI7KHRU\
DQG(PSLULFDO:RUN-RXUQDORI)LQDQFH1ƒSS

)XQDKDVKL.<2QWKH$SSUR[LPDWH5HDOL]DWLRQRI
&RQWLQXRXV0DSSLQJE\7KUHH1HXUDO1HWZRUNV(OHFWUR
QLFVDQG&RPPXQLFDWLRQVLQ-DSDQ3DUW1R
SS

 5(9,67$,1*(1,(5Ì$(,19(67,*$&,Ð192/1R',&,(0%5('(  


9,//$0,/'(/*$'2

*LEE-%DFN3URSDJDWLRQ)DPLO\$OEXP7HFKQLFDO 
5HSRUW &75 0DFTXDULH 8QLYHUVLW\ $XJXVW  3HxD'(VWDGtVWLFD0RGHORV\0pWRGRV)XQGDPHQ
'LVSRQLEOHHQKWWSFLWHVHHULVWSVXHGXJLEEEDFNKWPO WRV$OLDQ]D(GLWRULDO
+D\NLQ 6 1HXURQDO 1HWZRUNV $ &RPSUHKHQVLYH 3HVDUDQ07LPPHUPDQQ$$6LPSOH1RQSDUDPH
)RXQGDWLRQ1HZ<RUN0FPLOODQ&ROOHJH3XEOLVKLQJ&RP WULF7HVWRI3UHGLFWLYH3HUIRUPDQFH-RXUQDORI%XVLQHVVDQG
SDQ\ (FRQRPLF6WDWLVWLFV9RO1RSS
.U|VH%YDQGHU6PDJW3$Q,QWURGXFWLRQWR1HXUDO 6DUOH:61HXUDO1HWZRUNV,PSOHPHQWDWLRQLQ6$6
1HWZRUNV7KH8QLYHUVLW\RI$PVWHUGDP1RYHPEHU 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH 1LQHWHHQWK $QQXDO 6$6 8VHUV *URXS
'LVSRQLEOH HQ KWWSFLWHVHHULVWSVXHGXRVHLQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFH$SULO'LVSRQLEOHHQKWWS
WURGXFWLRQKWPO FLWHVHHULVWSVXHGXKWPO
.XDQ&0/LX7)RUHFDVWLQJ([FKDQJH5DWHVXVLQJ :RQJ)7DQ&+\EULG1HXUDO*HQHWLFDQG)X]]\
)HHGIRUZDUG DQG 5HFXUUHQW 1HXUDO 1HWZRUNV -RXUQDO RI 6\VWHPV(Q7UDGLQJRQWKH(GJH1HXUDO*HQHWLFDQG)X]]\
$SSOLHG(FRQRPHWULFV9ROSS 6\VWHPV IRU &KDRWLF )LQDQFLDO 0DUNHWV *XLGR - 'HERHN
0F&XOORFK:63LWWV:$/RJLFDO&DOFXOXVRIWKH (G -RKQ:LOH\DQG6RQV,QF
,GHDV,PPDQHQWLQ1HUYRXV$FWLYLW\%XOOHWLQRI0DWKHPDWLFDO <DR - 7DQ / $ &DVH RI 6WXG\ RQ XVLQJ 1HXUDO
%LRSK\VLFV1ƒSS 1HWZRUNV WR SHUIRUP 7HFKQLFDO )RUHFDVWLQJ RI )25(;
0LQVN\03DSHUW63HUFHSWURQV$Q,QWURGXFWLRQ 1HXURFRPSXWLQJ1RSS²'LVSRQLEOH
WR&RPSXWDFLRQDO*HRPHWU\&DPEULGJH0$0,73UHVV HQKWWSFLWHVHHULVWSVXHGX\DRFDVHKWPO

5(9,67$,1*(1,(5Ì$(,19(67,*$&,Ð192/1R',&,(0%5('(   

También podría gustarte