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Ejercicio Proyecciones (Promsimple Suaviz Winters)
Ejercicio Proyecciones (Promsimple Suaviz Winters)
1 35
2 79
3 47
4 55 35 20 19.999965
5 74 79 - 5 5.000079
6 54 47 7 6.999953
7 73 55 18 17.999945
8 119 74 45 44.999926
9 75 54 21 20.999946
10 89 73 16 15.999927
11 103 119 - 16 16.000119
12 68 75 - 7 7.000075
13 89 - 89 89.000089
14 103 - 103 103.000103
15 68 - 68 68.000068
150
100
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6
Chart T
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6
e mas se asemeja a la grafica, eso nos quiere decir que habra mayor certeza
Chart Title
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Chart Title
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
46.970 3.940
1 35 50.9 0.7 1.19 29.380 3.940
2 79 40.0 54.9 1.4 1.74 45.517 3.940
3 47 38.0 58.8 0.8 1.07 44.124 3.940
4 55 38.5 62.7 0.9 1.19 46.168 3.940
5 74 42.8 66.7 1.1 1.74 42.636 3.940
6 54 42.5 70.6 0.8 1.07 50.695 3.940
7 73 53.2 74.6 1.0 1.19 61.277 3.940
8 119 64.3 78.5 1.5 1.74 68.563 3.940
9 75 59.7 82.4 0.9 1.07 70.410 3.940
10 89 59.3 86.4 1.0 1.19 74.708 3.940
11 103 60.5 90.3 1.1 1.74 59.345 3.940
12 68 94.3 0.7 1.07 63.838 3.940
13
14
15
p 3
r 3
alpha 1.00
beta -
gama 1.00
MAD 11.09
Pronóstico Ft MED
60.649 25.649
Chart Title
57.830 21.170
140
52.681 5.681
57.258 2.258 120
86.968 12.968
49.612 4.388 100
88.574 0.426 40
136.503 33.503
67.410 0.590 20
67.410 0
80.085 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
123.515
Chart Title
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
+ 46.969696969697
10 12 14
le
9 10 11 12
Mes Demanda Pronostico error erro abs
1 35 35 0 0
2 79 26.2 52.8 52.8
3 47 32.6 14.4 14.4
4 55 31 24 24
5 74 27.2 46.8 46.8
6 54 31.2 22.8 22.8
7 73 27.4 45.6 45.6
8 119 18.2 100.8 100.8
9 75 27 48 48
10 89 24.2 64.8 64.8
11 103 21.4 81.6 81.6
12 68 28.4 39.6 39.6
13 42
14 42
15 42
alfa 0.2
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
art Title
8 9 10 11 12