DEMANDA PERIODICA

Periodo (Unidades) TENDENCIA (Unidades)

1 66049 4963
2 65830 COEFICIENTES
3 52015 α = 2/n+1
4 65726 β = 2α
5 53651 PERIODOS
6 59797 n = 12
7 69930
8 62075
9 63099
10 61932
11 54633
12 59671

Pronóstico Suavización
Exponencial Simple
Periodo
1 No Existe Demanda pe
2 66049 Demanda pro
3 66015.3076923077 80000
4 63861.4142011834
70000
5 64148.2735548475
6 62533.3083925633 60000
7 62112.3378706305 50000
8 63315.0551213027 40000
9 63124.2774103331
30000
10 63120.3885779741
11 62937.5595659781 20000
12 61659.9350173661 10000
13 61353.9450146944 0
1 2 3
 0.15384615

Demanda
Proyectada
Periodo (Unidades)
Demanda
13 perió66049
dica Vs Demanda futura o
Demanda proyectada
14 66015.307692308
80000 15 63861.414201184
16 64148.273554848
70000
17 62533.308392563
60000 18 62112.337870631
50000 19 63315.055121303
40000 20 63124.277410333
21 63120.388577974
30000
22 62937.559565978
20000 23 61659.935017366
10000 24 61353.945014694
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Column C Column F
 D

DEMANDA PERIODICA
Periodo (Unidades) TENDENCIA (Unidades)
1 66049 4963
2 65830 COEFICIENTES
3 52015 α = 2/n+1 0.15384615
4 65726 β = 2α 0.30769231
5 53651 PERIODOS
6 59797 n = 12
7 69930
8 62075
9 63099
10 61932
11 54633
12 59671

Perido
Demanda periódica Vs Demanda futura o Demanda 1
proyectada. 2
3
90000
4
80000
5
70000 6
60000 7
50000 8
40000 9
30000 10
20000 11
10000 12
0
13
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Column C Column L
At Tt

Pronostico periodo t primera Pronostico ajustado a

suavizacion (Unidades) Tendencia periodo t la tendencia
(Unidades) (Unidades)
66049 4963 No existe
70248.4615384615 4728.06508875739 74976.5266272189
73569.3686845699 4295.09341409615 77864.462098666
73887.6217757943 3071.45023782793 76959.0720136222
75230.9070884496 2539.70718392865 77770.6142723782
74059.90438432 1397.95029529536 75457.8546796154
73048.492421213 656.608061940787 73705.1004831538
73124.3157934379 477.905080489718 73602.2208739276
71828.8022779387 -67.7621798145474 71761.0400981242
70428.4185445666 -477.79958090918 69950.6189636574
68716.9852769409 -857.379176821961 67859.6061001189
65824.7436231776 -1483.49070818854 64341.252914989
63622.7524665292 -1704.56776925311 61918.1846972761
52392.3101284644 -4635.60609811825 47756.7040303461
 Demanda
Proyectada
Periodo (Unidades)
13 77864.4621
14 76959.072
15 77770.6143
16 75457.8547
17 73705.1005
18 73602.2209
19 71761.0401
20 69950.619
21 67859.6061
22 64341.2529
23 61918.1847
24 47756.704