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Estudios Demográficos y Urbanos
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<; Selection positiva o negativa? Insertion de la migration
interna y el desplazamiento forzado en el mercado
laboral urbano de Colombia, 2001-2006*
This article analyzes the socio-economic determinants of insertion into the work force of
recent migrants and those that have been forcibly displaced in Colombia's ten main cities,
using information from the Continuous Household Survey (2001-2006). Borjas' theo
retical framework for the selection of international migrants (1982, 1985, 1987, and
1990) is adapted to the cases of voluntary or involuntary internal migration. Through
the estimation of a Logit model for the likelihood of finding a job and Mincerian earning
equations we find support for a positive selection process for recent economic migrants
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ESTUDIOS DEMOGRAFICOS Y URBANOS, VOL. 26, NUM. 1 (76), 2011, 113-140
and a negative one for IDPs, regarding their insertion in the urban labor market. All
these go along the rationale of the theoretical framework we propose.
Introduction
114
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Silva y Guataquf, ;SELECCION POSITIVA O NEGATIVA?
115
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ESTUDIOS DEMOGRAFICOS YURBANOS, VOL. 26, NUM. 1 (76), 2011, 113-140
116
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Silva y Guataquf, ,;SELECCION POSITIVA O NEGATIVA?
117
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ESTUDIOS DEMOGRAFICOS YURBANOS, VOL. 26, NUM. 1 (76), 2011, 113-140
I Cuales son las razones para migrary cuales los resultados economicos
de la migration en funcion de dichas razones ?
118
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Silva y Guataqui, ;SELF.CCION POSITIVA O NEGATIVA?
119
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ESTUDIOSDEMOGRAfICOSYURBANOS.VOL. 26, NUM. 1 (76), 2011, 113-140
120
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Silva y Guataquf, ;SELECCION POSITIVA O NEGATIVA?
121
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— Polin6mica (recienle)
—I —I
de1 2y17 8y24 5y34 5y4 5y60de
MenorsEntreEntreEntreEntreEntreMayores 0
'cl
Recinte■Largoplazo—Polinmica(lrgoplazo)
2
a.
_o
3
o
*c3
u
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Silva y Guataquf, ^SELECCION POSITIVA O NEGATIVA?
123
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ESTUDIOS DEMOGRAFICOS YURBANOS, VOL. 26, NUM. 1 (76), 2011, 113-140
124
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Silva y Guataquf, «>SELECCION POSITIVA O NEGATIVA?
125
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ESTUDIOS DEMOGRAFICOS YURBANOS, VOL. 26, NUM. 1 (76), 2011, 113-140
126
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Silva y Guataquf, ,;SELF.CCION POSITIVA O NEGATIVA?
127
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ESTUDIOS DEMOGRAFICOS YURBANOS, VOL. 26, NUM. 1 (76), 2011, 113-140
yt = az.+ e. [1]
*
F(-a'Zi) = [4]
l + e~ l + e"'
[5]
l + e"
128
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Silva y Guataquf, jSEI.F.CCION POSITIVA O NEGATTVA?
129
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ESTUDIOS DEMOGRAFICOS YURBANOS, VOL. 26, NUM. 1 (76), 2011, 113-140
Se midio por la grafica de la bondad de ajuste, por el test de Wald y por el pseudo R .
9 El punto de corte de probabilidad de pasar de un grupo a otro fue fijado de
acuerdo con el punto de corte donde se tiene la misma probabilidad de encontrar un
ocupado correctamente (sensibilidad) que un desocupado correctamente (especifi
cidad).
10 Estas ciudades son: Medellfn, Barranquilla, Bogota, Manizales, Monteria, Pasto,
Pereira, Bucaramanga, Ibague y Cali.
130
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0.127969 -0.001076 0.017869 0.422913 0.418967 0.201963 -0.205168 0.392974 -0.220171 -0.246128 -2.249225
deconf]
[95% Interval/)
0.119689 -0.001177 -0.008253 0.376975 0.368786 0.189354 -0.230734 0.285678 -0.446182 -0.360144 -2.443288
P> Izl 0.0000 0.0000 0.4710 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
o
X
3
C
z
0.72 -5.78
6
58.63 34.13 30.77 60.82 12.40
-43.43 -33.42 -10.42 -47.39
e
w
Desv. est. 0.0021 0.0000 0.0067 0.0117 0.0128 0.0032 0.0065 0.0274 0.0577 0.0291 0.0495
Coef. o a.
O
0.1238 -0.0011 0.0048 0.3999 0.3939 0.1957 -0.2180 0.3393 -0.3332 -0.3031 -2.3463
m^
« 2
o> (5
'3
•a g
* -a
& UJ
H
. Z
o tu
?l
CUADRO 1 Model deprobailda eocupaion(201-206) Numero de obs.= 2 67 9 Wald chi2(10) = 14 920.83 Prob > chi2 = 0. 0 0 Logpseudo-likeliho d=-95 1.027 Pseudo R2 = 0.1 02 Variable EDAD EDAD2 NIVEL* SEXO CASAUL NOCUPA HIJOS6 MIGRECONO DESPLZF OTROSMIG Constante
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ESTUDIOS DEMOGRAFICOS YURBANOS, VOL. 26, NUM. 1 (76), 2011, 113-140
132
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Silva y Guataquf, ;SELECCION POSITIVA O NEGATIVA?
CUADRO 2
Efectos marginales
Variable Dy/dx X
133
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ESTUDIOS DEMOGRAFICOS YURBANOS, VOL. 26, NUM. 1 (76), 2011, 113-140
trabajadas (LHORASL); las razones por las cuales los individuos han mi
grado recientemente, puesto que podnan tener ingresos mas altos si
existe seleccion positiva de los migrantes que se insertaron al mercado
laboral.
u, - N(0, a)
w2~JV(0, 1) [8]
corr (uv u2) = p
134
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0.0651 0.0593 -0.0006 0.6897 0.2371 0.0368 0.0512 7.8231 0.0493 -0.0007 -0.0086 -0.0268 -0.0234 -0.8104
[95% Intervalo de conf ] 0.0639 0.0560 0.6709 0.2047 0.0008 7.7082 0.0447
-0.0007 -0.0624 -0.0008 -0.0196 -0.0516 -0.0449 -0.8951
P>\z\
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.6130 0.0430 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
V
T3
rt
3
C
fi
z
-0.51 2.02 -5.04 -6.20 -6.21
a
68.67 -40.77 26.79 39.83 -50.32 -39.46
207.10 141.49 264.93
c
w
Desv. est. 0.0003 0.0008 0.0000 0.0048 0.0082 0.0253 0.0128 0.0293 0.0012 0.0000 0.0028 0.0063 0.0055 0.0216
a
c
P s
4; C3
U CL
^ P
Coef. §>
0.0645 0.0576 -0.0006 0.6803 0.2209 -0.0128 0.0260 7.7657 0.0470 -0.0007 -0.0141 -0.0392 -0.0341 -0.8527 iO 5
« o
1C«•§1
cg'S
•a w
W
CUADRO 3 Estima ondealgunosdetrmina tesdlingresolabrl Variable AEDU EXPERIENCIA EXPERIENCIA2 LHORASL MIGRECONO DESPLZF* OTROSMIG" Constante Ecuacion de sel ction EDAD EDAD2 HIJOS6 CASAUL SEXO Constante
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ESTUDIOS DEMOGRAFICOS YURBANOS, VOL. 26, NUM. 1 (76), 2011, 113-140
Comentarios finales
136
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Silva y Guataquf, ;SELECCION POSITIVA O NEGATIVA?
Bibliografia
137
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ESTUDIOS DEMOGRAFICOS Y URBANOS, VOL. 26, NUM. 1 (76), 2011, 113-140
138
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Silva y Guataqui, ;SELECCION POSITIVA O NEGATIVA?
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ESTUDIOS DEMOGRAFICOS YURBANOS, VOL. 26, NUM. 1 (76), 2011, 113-140
140
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