17%

t-1 33% alfa = 0.60

t 50%

Suavización
Período Mes Demanda MA (3) MA (5) WMA
Exponencial (0,3)
1 Ene 37 37.00
2 Feb 40 37.00
3 Mar 41 38.80
4 Abr 37 39.3 39.99 40.12
5 May 45 39.3 38.83 38.25
6 Jun 50 41.0 40.0 41.68 42.29
7 Jul 43 44.0 42.6 46.14 46.91
8 Ago 47 46.0 43.2 45.65 44.57
9 Sep 56 46.7 44.4 46.19 46.02
10 Oct 52 48.7 48.2 50.82 52.00
11 Nov 55 51.7 49.6 52.47 52.00
12 Dic 54 54.3 50.6 54.18 53.80
13 Ene 53.67 52.80 53.99 53.92
Pronósticos utilizando los distintos métodos
 0.43
beta = 0.29

Suavización SE Ajustada MAD

Exponencial (0,5) Tt+1 AFt+1 SE Ajustada Suavización Ex.
37.00 0.00 37.00 0.00 0.00
37.00 0.00 37.00 3.00 3.00
38.29 0.37 38.66 2.34 2.20
39.45 0.60 40.05 3.05 3.12
38.40 0.12 38.52 6.48 6.75
41.23 0.91 42.14 7.86 7.71
44.99 1.74 46.73 3.73 3.91
44.14 0.98 45.12 1.88 2.43
45.37 1.06 46.42 9.58 9.98
49.93 2.07 52.00 0.00 0.00
50.82 1.73 52.55 2.45 3.00
52.61 1.75 54.36 0.36 0.20
53.21 1.41 54.62 3.39 3.52
ando los distintos métodos