TALLER LABORATORIO 3: MODELOS DE COLAS Y SIMULACIÓN

Taller

Ejercicio 2. Establecer un listado de 1000 números aleatorios en una columna,

Gráfico
establecer una grafica de tipo de dispersión
dispersión con mil
en un cuadro denúmeros aleatorios
dialogo explique susde 0 a 1
características.
Gráfico de dispersión
1.2

Listado 1
0.31464888
0.44369343 0.8
0.6046217
0.6
0.84890552
0.09289213 0.4
0.31894789
0.27330734 0.2
0.31652942
0.65322983 0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
0.56997712
0.02605963
0.09346002
0.00745591
0.24286252
0.72237371
0.77934106
0.86853878
0.36277225
0.81171514
0.81132412
0.18370793
0.9177953
0.93581612
0.37025848
0.5823041
0.06536782
0.55547221
0.8648742
0.5542069
0.71416976
0.83294163
0.18230497
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0.31267697
0.44586858
0.62291636
0.85601591
0.18892248
0.54712857
0.2428323
0.92938421
0.64668292
0.54588076
0.74337539
0.21508591
0.00569205
0.61201068
0.06599901
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0.4313094
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0.30096308
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0.20427084
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0.99937577
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0.88614616
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0.14937704
0.93293711
0.34065709
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0.1015411
0.31670596
0.7144295
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0.89150283
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0.15299528
0.0471969
0.14937704
0.46687209
0.02767348
0.03216157
0.44223689
0.17473379
0.7448398
0.16323954
0.8672083
0.11131151
0.71048336
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0.70922393
0.31242862
0.62319576
0.1231215
0.58538866
0.97923961
0.86489196
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0.09301469
0.50681412
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0.70300011
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0.80729827
0.18011669
0.31052454
0.82926507
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0.78507765
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0.88714294
0.43127853
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0.87532199
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0.31607372
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0.46672294
0.38164857
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0.9549893
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0.18786962
0.80845405
0.4552598
0.28680828
0.23099547
0.92420274
0.76631653
0.34133562
0.98895964
0.8431725
0.42919962
0.81768657
0.87279748
0.71166971
0.02107118
0.34794322
0.32058734
0.05124139
0.62461532
0.0246292
0.49140318
0.2670129
0.5866672
0.75369699
0.31575684
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0.90722894
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0.65972233
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0.94807843
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0.98099305
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0.02867624
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0.92755045
Ejercicio 3. Establecer tres columnas de 200 números aleatorios aplicando un
tratamiento según fórmula de Excel para comportamiento NORMAL, EXPONENCIAL Y
UNIFORME graficar cada columna. Teniendo en cuenta para los correspondientes casos
los siguientes datos:
Media=50; Desviación Estándar =5; Para la uniforme de un rango de 1 a 50.
Media 50 DE 5
Comportami
Comportamient Comportamient ento
o normal o exponencial
Uniforme
56.0216507336 51.63957859242 32.4065371
50.42642227527 2.420916669112 5.12134159
46.19867594447 62.32021795806 49.4526811
58.46976035973 34.35772442397 16.8558
53.42050725521 3.151694722779 21.4960479
52.70978830486 34.1723508549 30.4176458
47.84244550938 27.64481025824 43.4441359
56.62200818624 33.50235201933 25.5545824
50.98416421679 2.026216826954 10.4614399
51.36684548124 20.98504357791 8.09121982
46.24955080435 41.02582436941 13.4193548
46.55674400856 17.33647420987 20.4746849
42.3713858152 54.1024081523 48.6481521
60.34668457578 87.4450643458 24.2371288
51.6418141513 25.31517995369 3.25806452
49.33190792945 24.78608662012 16.9978637
47.72937826492 129.6561384903 16.3368938
47.89856701682 46.67667571897 46.2106388
57.35144567443 6.720115176172 36.7432173
42.33070866467 77.42704809246 43.7267678
41.50440999074 95.29252773887 42.4167913
44.11816133943 223.5587263199 47.8002564
54.73081627206 43.03864242858 17.6887417
48.86562136453 25.02758251786 7.18051698
50.25619328881 59.8405066143 9.87673574
45.50624352196 57.80524809654 28.8175604
38.61339918221 19.15568406506 44.7735527
45.16828665946 75.16515770632 27.4761803
38.53527358733 103.827289156 49.4646443
48.55556325201 58.09361962807 10.3044221
50.25121380531 83.25323096257 15.5652638
56.22321749688 21.73848775996 15.3289895
47.19581182944 1.048624077329 26.2305063
50.63800484895 18.63080750747 12.9767144
58.79567778611 133.5246597932 15.8075198
39.88296283642 56.45095179594 29.3588977
54.14866008214 9.740305254282 17.2909635
51.39426106216 53.1143085499 2.07519761
46.15615706716 93.00864571927 25.4708396
47.88685727253 12.03064142424 37.0408032
47.94652012497 85.31995778724 30.5656911
45.54904661636 24.80240110837 2.30249947
55.01684098708 2.788062775284 45.6094852
49.77750917424 6.632960182356 30.2576373
52.35918378166 12.10293286977 31.7635121
48.83891632635 8.258904170627 22.9525742
52.70624695986 38.80934826585 10.5601367
50.34470986066 48.97331581946 49.8280282
59.79243850452 11.76560525592 48.4268319
46.2576453072 160.6596581123 45.9309977
45.65436610283 38.45552169364 1.51741081
43.99174157588 56.2891189396 40.9228797
49.26159830466 21.99433992482 46.2779321
40.98581611179 11.45591344806 10.8128605
49.56513079269 151.8482200925 27.9950865
46.34664504811 64.60201370039 24.796411
45.39516011282 3.983731158586 32.6936552
55.21306446899 48.48021089722 49.5842769
41.21866949281 29.84741232031 40.2245247
44.49763663506 12.24769791726 18.7071139
50.30139517548 1.398780658376 33.541551
55.30886836714 94.36866091725 23.2217475
47.21056838098 8.725343472512 27.0170904
49.34734091767 0.905876133414 42.4526811
55.67232518733 56.33465575769 6.19354839
50.86703835223 8.976988930832 33.7912839
41.65138433455 257.33278478 29.1301004
60.14386725728 18.70024333654 35.4302499
48.07774315741 7.227307108497 20.9906003
49.22600864011 269.3658511613 33.1901303
59.33537194214 18.7648432336 20.633198
47.09813209847 115.1550757111 22.6146123
46.92851133659 48.85299878348 38.9190344
44.32840240843 14.40730589965 6.21298868
53.95688175558 64.15644036671 27.3640248
49.83760403666 21.99211919643 10.3672292
53.20799244946 50.12851752241 9.81841487
 47.1311126501 188.1495991882 25.0805383
44.5526724332 30.86073866092 42.9386883
49.38859218673 14.21567147541 48.4821619
48.34809045751 15.65615956235 10.8651997
41.96318185568 176.5414837952 36.1031831
44.20289213958 32.40319062219 13.4073916
53.04152081299 23.24212299481 37.3653066
49.4967481598 36.63557946194 22.6370434
45.14566297876 82.42781194121 47.6208075
46.14328771713 7.809639315606 39.0491348
49.02831859799 53.32634000132 10.788934
50.88024307843 269.3658511613 42.5214698
54.29951114711 117.2661910723 40.88699
53.35362528858 51.26647683571 35.3465072
49.21710127637 38.5684816971 32.0715659
56.56815473121 50.3298064422 34.7662893
43.93864982267 77.27870147308 28.0474258
50.21253754312 22.93220931567 30.6778466
44.93867335332 208.4365931497 42.1296731
48.70013880354 31.63484971672 24.9489425
50.76857418208 34.69046839785 19.8705405
54.48745822723 34.95729329112 48.7528306
43.06047584469 51.2092444852 22.3065584
56.28847374173 17.10488830412 34.1367229
63.74392013531 16.64991672322 33.3815424
48.89150785748 3.212044218929 18.3198035
49.8157875325 17.53249076108 26.3635975
48.49163714316 5.924913017318 13.5225379
51.68749920704 126.4737718305 49.0698569
52.74841340797 23.45390725631 30.1873531
50.69164229899 97.26939911754 3.54966887
51.29194859255 10.16855625802 13.8305918
53.56155851478 11.56229845206 47.813715
52.70314330919 32.20171638807 12.0704978
44.29405761475 4.753748123032 45.1773125
41.03395111888 1.087938706804 15.2616962
49.92369339452 43.23664593092 37.1723991
57.92470018496 1.646629649676 23.326426
49.84984810908 242.8353024678 45.5556505
51.23942527352 24.96931471821 44.2441786
46.90630829718 5.862197099808 1.23178808
42.56408500514 15.68235625845 44.0677206
47.43702119304 28.84876390013 46.7579577
59.96756170935 6.022561502125 2.81392865
49.34541392577 4.744302974131 26.6178167
45.45040054727 96.74510595067 19.7209998
45.73581703771 77.03762839169 13.0769066
40.97217369126 21.13276687611 32.8611408
53.63888830179 5.202838247077 48.8664815
51.61559796652 8.089537215669 15.5533006
36.18786776206 44.24672943151 10.5930357
44.92396227652 14.72823441844 8.04934843
56.60367049932 23.67821269125 10.7979064
48.42625584279 74.40947575523 17.1728263
46.55480564797 143.113699965 27.754326
58.02986050985 25.30314370972 4.67720573
63.50890670437 143.1941100426 24.0487075
52.16175521928 76.24378737189 15.5757317
55.19005425303 17.21539696433 20.3969237
46.21500137437 131.6029082783 1.28113651
47.43222360848 4.329145618731 2.40269173
41.48328697629 212.3487346913 10.7350993
51.76015646503 7.214018565898 5.0794702
52.12778559217 60.86818580689 21.22837
56.62294041831 138.0001046381 24.1189917
49.63036998452 10.04252162374 33.2933134
51.5127682218 24.06568403069 49.1625721
40.49077814561 31.11643469193 46.1194189
51.64706079886 34.70797408572 9.86477248
52.0156676328 229.2711591291 14.3480026
51.70978751157 111.1360579666 30.5238197
48.52083192309 6.974846591886 32.2480239
37.63896655873 144.0036656046 22.4396496
46.89193259655 105.8610752832 43.9226661
48.13773001733 125.1273678175 44.3324076
46.0258264764 91.93853697771 43.9316385
51.12299858301 61.38902249566 19.9453108
45.04603920286 38.04009738577 15.0852382
45.65380903732 15.51028035078 6.76778466
54.68078269478 48.78516709924 2.95599231
47.84706119499 13.16665194413 25.5366375
47.66174596516 4.329145618731 27.3071993
44.42416083184 16.28612738395 19.1063875
59.12518771656 4.523553031463 47.9557787
48.61686887925 65.45908488292 35.4437086
51.59304818226 93.73604771026 7.04144414
40.99163687788 26.4515324788 42.0728477
41.51411884668 9.09610059231 22.9720145
41.98676050582 5.37196335563 40.3770562
44.40631199832 53.44147741706 17.1010468
49.15469857115 13.26006036998 2.86327708
55.82792836212 58.93051156453 20.0111087
44.9290895529 81.97635995463 21.0264901
37.53901309101 68.48183498296 6.82610553
47.97104237587 8.882345887064 11.7609485
48.13937279214 60.65305766542 4.8431959
52.45754563366 15.6376773978 47.7553941
53.78907998311 116.5910869528 33.5938902
44.77837491213 68.02234564037 46.7160863
57.53443600843 37.23436310978 9.85280923
58.13008682599 0.364951336209 2.18585772
41.6156866675 21.80060029098 1.70134587
42.33195921988 121.6838584603 7.83550523
48.43589648663 35.89905968103 1.20935698
58.34554612084 65.80687897443 30.8169195
48.13363160683 43.85954372279 47.1467635
45.96680027025 5.345149408989 39.174749
51.58298689712 167.3223328982 22.1390728
49.28209035716 3.519129100611 23.3234352
47.26137502876 80.37932264103 26.332194
55.40322844245 54.36603449502 10.7126682
46.10195686728 12.19098207538 13.5868404
46.39046563971 56.11209145504 9.70625935
51.01772457128 13.40679975748 21.2552873
55.04094259668 56.72203673569 17.9638966
45.48098230662 46.4775030739 12.034608
45.89381900478 1.610854892407 13.9517197
46.40137389179 179.2179464168 25.1642811
52.3203483579 46.68877734545 8.08972442
53.66385393136 5.980352888254 27.7797479
52.54511292042 15.16025045897 33.3306986
49.80430516189 47.90523163744 35.2552873
49.32109631118 62.9249903996 46.9418928
 Considerando un valor (Alfa = 0.10); y u
de 0,5 barcos.
Determine:
Ejercicio 4. Desarrollar el siguiente caso estableciendo una simulación en a. Modelo de simulación de 30 días de
Excel: Se desea simular la llegada y descarga de barcos en un muelle b. Calculo del número de corridas nece
para determinar el c. Adecuar el número de corridas según
número promedio de barcos que se retrasan para ser descargados al d. Generar 15 corridas del modelo y cal
siguiente día, los e. Establecer conclusiones y recomenda
datos para realizar la simulación son los siguientes: grupo.

Barcos que llegan por día Probabilidad 0 15% 1 18% 2 14% 3 21% 4 18% 5 14%

Barcos que Camiones Barcos

llegan por Probabilidad DE A que llegan descargados
dia por dia por día
0 15% 0 0.15 0 1
1 18% 0.15 0.33 1 2
2 14% 0.33 0.47 2 3
3 21% 0.47 0.68 3 4
4 18% 0.68 0.86 4 5
5 14% 0.86 1 5

CANTIDAD DE CAMIONES CAMIONES TOTAL CANTIDAD

DIA CAMIONES DIA NUMERO QUE NUMERO DESCARGAD CAMIONES CAMIONES
ALEATORIO LLEGAN POR ALEATORIO A DESCARGAD
ANTERIOR OS POR DIA
DIA DESCARGAR OS

1 0 0.68838299 4 0.88937606179 5 4 4
2 0 0.46091896 2 0.63450906202 3 2 2
3 0 0.26623535 1 0.03638948697 1 1 1
4 0 0.36141003 2 0.79762199244 4 2 2
5 0 0.91739682 5 0.71969923188 4 5 4
6 1 0.99210557 5 0.3573332033 3 6 3
7 3 0.3537122 2 0.1170639998 2 5 2
8 3 0.95938114 5 0.2342973102 3 8 3
9 5 0.91946861 5 0.78286016977 4 10 4
10 6 0.1976042 1 0.8108061719 4 7 4
11 3 0.44797781 2 0.76533478985 4 5 4
12 1 0.63705124 3 0.96485279481 5 4 4
13 0 0.3950047 2 0.24512278728 3 2 2
14 0 0.26518838 1 0.51218418964 3 1 1
15 0 0.48937281 3 0.64599049319 3 3 3
16 0 0.13086839 0 0.2357509538 3 0 0
17 0 0.15751689 1 0.69682563074 4 1 1
18 0 0.28908651 1 0.8476853826 4 1 1
19 0 0.10230347 0 0.8438914443 4 0 0
20 0 0.11784411 0 0.45635777067 3 0 0
21 0 0.19788646 1 0.43600683391 3 1 1
22 0 0.5418963 3 0.33001294617 3 3 3
23 0 0.03870454 0 0.00385906356 1 0 0
24 0 0.39536096 2 0.70463247812 4 2 2
25 0 0.54232518 3 0.14098265429 2 3 2
26 1 0.7179128 4 0.3172606695 3 5 3
27 2 0.48467428 3 0.44197596272 3 5 3
28 2 0.01172225 0 0.10577338789 2 2 2
29 0 0.48598078 3 0.03163446365 1 3 1
30 2 0.14196486 0 0.50343724882 3 2 2
un valor (Alfa = 0.10); y un error

imulación de 30 días de operación incluyendo grafico de estabilidad.

número de corridas necesarias para estabilizar la variable de interés.
úmero de corridas según el caso del modelo del punto a.
corridas del modelo y calcular el intervalo de confianza.
onclusiones y recomendaciones del caso, por cada integrante del

Camiones
DE A descargados
Probabilidad por día
7% 0 0.07 1
13% 0.07 0.2 2
45% 0.2 0.65 3
22% 0.65 0.87 4
13% 0.87 1 5

ESTADISTICOS Promedio 1.0

Desviación E. 1.6

Variable
CAMIONES aleatoria de
PENDIENTES Variable aleatoria de camiones pendientes al sigu
camiones
DEL SIGUIENTE
pendientes al 2.5
DIA
siguiente día

2
0 0
0 0
1.5
0 0
0 0
1
1 0
3 1 0.5
3 1
5 2 0
6 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

3 2
1 2
0 2
0 2
0 2
0 1
0 1
0 1
0 1
0 1
0 1
0 1
0 1
0 1
0 1
1 1
2 1
2 1
0 1
2 1
0 1
s pendientes al siguiente día

16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
ESTADISTICOSPromedio 1.0
Desviación E. 1.6

Variable
aleatoria de
camiones
pendientes al
siguiente día

0
0
0
0
1
3
3
5
6
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 Como no tiene un comportamiento normal, utilizamos la siguie
0

0
0
0
0
0
1
2
2
0
2
0
amiento normal, utilizamos la siguiente formula:

Longitud de
corrida 103.402299
ESTADISTICOSPromedio 1.0 2.7 1.9 1.3 0.9 1.1
Desviación E. 1.6 3.0 1.8 1.3 1.5 1.6

Corrida 1 Corrida 2 Corrida 3 Corrida 4 Corrida 5 Corrida 6

0 0 0 3 0 0
0 2 0 3 0 0
0 1 0 2 0 0
0 0 0 2 1 0
1 0 0 2 1 0
3 3 1 2 0 0
3 3 2 1 0 0
5 1 4 1 1 0
6 1 3 1 0 0
3 0 3 1 1 0
1 0 3 0 0 0
0 0 2 1 0 0
0 0 3 0 0 0
0 0 4 0 0 0
0 0 6 0 0 0
0 0 4 0 0 0
0 0 4 0 1 0
0 2 5 0 2 3
0 3 3 0 0 0
0 4 0 0 0 0
0 3 2 3 0 2
0 4 0 0 0 4
0 4 1 2 0 3
0 3 2 1 0 4
1 7 0 0 2 4
2 6 0 0 5 4
2 9 0 3 3 4
0 9 1 5 3 3
2 9 2 2 4 2
0 6 1 3 4 0

Chart Title
30

25

20

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 2
20

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 2

Corrida 1 Corrida 2 Corrida 3 Corrida 4 Corrida 5

Corrida 6 Corrida 7 Corrida 8 Corrida 9 Corrida 10
Corrida 11 Corrida 12 Corrida 13 Corrida 14 Corrida 15
 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.3 0.3
1.2 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.6 0.7

Corrida 7 Corrida 8 Corrida 9 Corrida 10 Corrida 11 Corrida 12 Corrida 13 Corrida 14

0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 4 2
0 0 0 0 2 0 4 0
1 0 0 0 2 0 4 2
3 0 0 1 0 3 5 1
0 0 0 3 0 3 3 0
2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
4 2 1 2 0 0 0 0
3 3 0 1 2 2 0 0
0 4 0 0 2 0 0 0
1 2 2 0 3 3 0 0
0 3 3 0 4 1 0 0
2 0 4 0 4 0 2 0
0 1 3 0 4 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
0 3 4 0 0 0 1 0
0 3 2 2 0 1 3 0
0 0 2 0 0 0 3 0
2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
2 2 0 2 0 2 0 0
3 0 0 2 0 2 1 0
0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1
0 3 2 0 0 3 2 0
1 0 3 0 0 2 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 4 0 1
0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0
0 2 1 0 1 0 1 2
0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0
0 0 0 3 0 3 1 0

21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

4 Corrida 5 Promedios
9 Corrida 10
0.8
14 Corrida 15
2.7
1.9
1.3
0.9
1.1
0.8
1.1
1.0
0.5
0.9
1.2
1.3
0.3
1.2

Bajo el supuesto de no normalidad

Intervalos de confianza
r= 15 Limite superior 1.33714866
α= 0.95 Limite inferior 0.92062911
X= 1.1
s= 0.56
 1.2
1.4

Corrida 15
0
0
1
2
1
3
2
0
1
0
0
0
0
4
5
1
1
0
1
1
1
2
4
2
0
2
0
0
2
0