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PUNTO 1
W : Evento funcione Internet
W’: Evento Internet no función
J : Completó el trabajo
P(W)=0.74
P(J|W)=0.95
P(J|W’)= 0.52
P(J)=P(J|W)*P(W)+P(J|W’)*P(W’)
PUNTO 2
P(FO)=0.46
P(F|FO)=0.02
P(T)=0.39
P(F|T)=0.04
P(H)= 0.14
P(F|H)=0.062
P(F)=P(FO)*P(F|FO)+P(T)*P(F|T)+P(H)*P(F|H)
PUNTO 4
Set: Tag Times in FO P is Protected.
P(F)=∑P(F|EK)*P(EK)
W: Gana
W’: Pierde
c: Adivina
c’: No adivina
Que No Cambie
P(W)=P(W|C)*P(C)+P(W|C’)*P(C’)
Que Cambie
P(W)=P(W|C)*P(C)+P(W|C’)*P(C’)
In[ ]:= 0*13+1*23
2
Out[]=
3
PUNTO 5
PUNTO 6
I: INOCENTE
C: CRIMINAL
P(I)= 0.90
P(I’)=0.10
P(C|I)=0.15
P(C|I)=0.85
P(C)=P(C|I)*P(I)+P(C|I’)*P(I’)
P(C I')*P(I')
P (I' C) = P(C)
0.85 * 0.10
In[ ]:=
0.15 * 0.90 + 0.85 * 0.10
Out[]= 0.386364
P(F HR)*P(HR)
P(HR F) = P(F)
=0.7784742
Ejercicio de Varillas
P(1D)=0.30
{0,1,2,3,}
Probabilidad Total
P(m0)=P(mO|0D)*P(oD)+P(m0|1D)*P(1D)+P(m0|2D)*P(2D)+P(m0|3D)*
P(3D)
P(mO|0D)*P(oD)= 1*0.5=0.5
Binomial[49, 6.]
In[ ]:=
Binomial[50, 6]
Out[]= 0.88
48
6
P(m0|1D)*P(1D)= 50
*0.10= 0.7722*0.10
6
Binomial[48, 6.]
In[ ]:=
Binomial[50, 6]
Out[]= 0.772245
Binomial[47, 6.]
In[ ]:=
Binomial[50, 6]
Out[]= 0.675714
P(M0 0 D)*P(0 D)
P(0 D MO) = P(MO)
1 * 0.5
In[ ]:=
0.9087959183673444`
Out[]= 0.550179
P(BB/A⋂B)=1 (Probabilidad de que haya apagón dado que A y B fallen, evento seguro )
P(A) = 0.05, P(B) = 0.07, and P (A ∩ B) = 0.01
P (A ∩ B) = 0.01
P(BB/A⋂B’)=0.15 (If Plant a Fails, a brownout is 15% likely)
P(BB/A’⋂B)=0.12 (If Plan b fails, there is a 12% probability of a brownout)
P(BB/A’⋂B’)=0 ( Si ninguna planta falla no habrá apagón, es un evento nulo)
P (A ⋂B’) =?
P (A ⋂B’) = P(A)- P (A ⋂B)=0.05-0.01=0.04
P(A’⋂B)=?
P (A’ ∩ B) = P(B)- P (A ∩ B)=0..07-0.01=0.06
P(A’⋂B’)=?
Cálculo P(BB)
P(BB)=P(BB/A⋂B)*P(A⋂B)+P(BB/A⋂B’)*P(A⋂B’)+P(BB/A’⋂B)*P(A’⋂B)+P(BB/A’⋂B’)*P(A’⋂B’)
P(B|A)=?
P (B A) = P (A ⋂ B) / P (A) = 0.01
0.05
=0.2
P(B|A) =P(B) ?? No lo es
P(BB A⋂B)*P(A⋂B)
P (A ⋂ B BB) = P(BB)
1 * 0.01
In[ ]:=
0.0232
Out[]= 0.431034