ANEXO G - Reporte de Software

ANEXO G: Reporte de software
1.1 Reporte Software Minitab – Activo Nuevo

Informe del proyecto de Minitab-Activo Nuevo
Datos
TTR TBF TMP TEC TADC
4 20160 5.5 20 8
6 15120 6.0 25 8
3 17640 6.5 15 8
4 30240 6.0 20 4
9 10080 6.0 21 5
5 30240 6.0 35 4
2 25200 6.0 15 9
3 35280 6.0 35 6
4 12600 6.0 25 10
6 10080 5.0 15 6
4 5040 5.5 10 7
2 15120 6.5 15 8
6 17640 4.5 30 9
4 12600 5.5 15 8
6 12600 5.5 20 7
2 17640 7.0 35 4
6 32760 6.0 15 8
2 25200 6.5 20 6
3 10080 5.5 15 8
7 20160 5.0 20 9
Análisis de distribución: TTR- ACTIVO NUEVO

Variable: TTR- ACTIVO NUEVO
* ADVERTENCIA * La matriz de varianzas y covarianzas de los parámetros estimados no existe.

Se supone que el parámetro de valor umbral es fijo cuando se calculan intervalos de
confianza.
Censura
Información de censura Conteo
Valor no censurado 20
Método de cálculo: Máxima verosimilitud

Distribución: Weibull de 3 parámetros
Cálculos del parámetro
Error IC normal de 95.0%

Parámetro Estimación estándar Inferior Superior
Forma 1.31170 0.243467 0.911678 1.88724
Escala 2.88096 0.514732 2.02981 4.08902
Valor umbral 1.72937 0 1.72937 1.72937
Log-verosimilitud = -38.692
Bondad de ajuste
Anderson-Darling
(ajustado)
1.385
Características de distribución

Estimación estándar Inferior Superior
Media(MTTF) 4.38543 0.455060 3.57838 5.37450
Desviación estándar 2.04306 0.473926 1.29667 3.21909
Mediana 3.90802 0.436606 3.13950 4.86467
Primer cuartil(Q1) 2.84374 0.318849 2.28271 3.54266
Tercer cuartil(Q3) 5.42496 0.630556 4.31976 6.81293
Rango intercuartil(IQR) 2.58122 0.496124 1.77100 3.76210
Tabla de percentiles

Porcentaje Percentil estándar Inferior Superior
1 1.81576 0.0626131 1.72937 1.94272
2 1.87648 0.0925564 1.72937 2.06694
3 1.93055 0.115367 1.72937 2.17043
4 1.98087 0.134309 1.73437 2.26240
5 2.02869 0.150714 1.75379 2.34667
6 2.07470 0.165287 1.77477 2.42532
7 2.11933 0.178456 1.79690 2.49961
8 2.16288 0.190506 1.81995 2.57043
9 2.20556 0.201637 1.84374 2.63838
10 2.24752 0.211998 1.86816 2.70392
20 2.64753 0.289885 2.13620 3.28127
30 3.04219 0.344380 2.43685 3.79790
40 3.45574 0.390355 2.76943 4.31213
50 3.90802 0.436606 3.13950 4.86467
60 4.42458 0.492556 3.55725 5.50339
70 5.04830 0.572946 4.04147 6.30594
80 5.87032 0.708224 4.63413 7.43626
90 7.17038 0.991734 5.46780 9.40312
91 7.35917 1.03930 5.57980 9.70599
92 7.56792 1.09358 5.70133 10.0456
93 7.80179 1.15643 5.83477 10.4319
94 8.06835 1.23056 5.98359 10.8795
95 8.37917 1.32019 6.15304 11.4107
96 8.75355 1.43243 6.35176 12.0635
97 9.22724 1.58070 6.59561 12.9089
98 9.87953 1.79536 6.91913 14.1066
99 10.9588 2.17430 7.42813 16.1677
Análisis de distribución: TBF -ACTIVO NUEVO
Variable: TBF -ACTIVO NUEVO
Censura


Forma 1.91734 0.555994 1.08610 3.38480
Escala 17267.1 3725.20 11313.1 26354.7
Valor umbral 3451.16 2495.24 -1439.42 8341.74
Bondad de ajuste
Anderson-Darling
(ajustado)
0.943

Media(MTTF) 18769.1 1860.47 15455.0 22793.9
Mediana 17713.9 2064.64 14096.2 22260.0
Primer cuartil(Q1) 12467.2 1795.42 9401.22 16533.0
Tercer cuartil(Q3) 23925.3 2417.07 19627.5 29164.2

1 5018.81 1548.44 3451.16 9187.96
2 5707.47 1402.57 3525.88 9238.90
3 6246.26 1348.85 4090.79 9537.46
4 6707.47 1334.46 4541.62 9906.19
5 7119.31 1340.12 4922.77 10295.9
6 7496.28 1356.70 5257.66 10688.1
7 7847.03 1379.30 5560.16 11074.5
8 8177.22 1405.14 5839.01 11451.8
9 8490.78 1432.56 6100.05 11818.5
10 8790.57 1460.55 6347.32 12174.3
20 11348.3 1705.37 8453.14 15235.1
30 13536.9 1868.29 10328.5 17741.8
40 15614.9 1978.49 12181.2 20016.7
50 17713.9 2064.64 14096.2 22260.0
60 19948.7 2156.70 16139.4 24657.0
70 22473.6 2300.30 18388.5 27466.2
80 25582.7 2589.96 20978.4 31197.6
90 30128.1 3307.35 24295.7 37360.5
91 30757.9 3434.79 24711.6 38283.5
92 31446.6 3581.51 25155.2 39311.4
93 32209.0 3752.67 25633.3 40471.6
94 33066.7 3955.78 26155.4 41804.3
95 34052.7 4202.50 26736.4 43371.0
96 35221.1 4512.30 27400.1 45274.4
97 36671.6 4921.59 28189.9 47705.4
98 38622.6 5511.96 29198.7 51088.0
99 41745.9 6542.72 30704.9 56757.1
Gráfica de probabilidad para TTR- ACTIVO NUEVO; TBF -ACTIVO NUEVO

Análisis de distribución: TADC- ACTIVO NUEVO
Variable: TADC- ACTIVO NUEVO
Censura

Distribución: Normal

Media 7.1 0.393065 6.32961 7.87039
Desv.Est. 1.75784 0.277939 1.28941 2.39644
Bondad de ajuste
Anderson-Darling
(ajustado)
1.415

Media(MTTF) 7.1 0.393065 6.32961 7.87039
Mediana 7.1 0.393065 6.32961 7.87039
Primer cuartil(Q1) 5.91436 0.435481 5.06083 6.76788
Tercer cuartil(Q3) 8.28564 0.435481 7.43212 9.13917

1 3.01065 0.756683 1.52758 4.49372
2 3.48984 0.693060 2.13147 4.84821
3 3.79387 0.654036 2.51198 5.07575
4 4.02257 0.625511 2.79660 5.24855
5 4.20861 0.602912 3.02692 5.39030
6 4.36696 0.584156 3.22203 5.51188
7 4.50580 0.568109 3.39232 5.61927
8 4.63011 0.554084 3.54413 5.71609
9 4.74317 0.541633 3.68159 5.80475
10 4.84724 0.530446 3.80758 5.88689
20 5.62056 0.457404 4.72407 6.51706
30 6.17819 0.419218 5.35654 6.99984
40 6.65466 0.399322 5.87200 7.43731
50 7.1 0.393065 6.32961 7.87039
60 7.54534 0.399322 6.76269 8.32800
70 8.02181 0.419218 7.20016 8.84346
80 8.57944 0.457404 7.68294 9.47593
90 9.35276 0.530446 8.31311 10.3924
91 9.45683 0.541633 8.39525 10.5184
92 9.56989 0.554084 8.48391 10.6559
93 9.69420 0.568109 8.58073 10.8077
94 9.83304 0.584156 8.68812 10.9780
95 9.99139 0.602912 8.80970 11.1731
96 10.1774 0.625511 8.95145 11.4034
97 10.4061 0.654036 9.12425 11.6880
98 10.7102 0.693060 9.35179 12.0685
99 11.1893 0.756683 9.70628 12.6724
Análisis de distribución: TEC- ACTIVO NUEVO
Variable: TEC- ACTIVO NUEVO

Censura


Media 21.05 1.64237 17.8310 24.2690
Desv.Est. 7.34490 1.16133 5.38764 10.0132
Bondad de ajuste
Anderson-Darling
(ajustado)
1.807

Media(MTTF) 21.05 1.64237 17.8310 24.2690
Mediana 21.05 1.64237 17.8310 24.2690
Primer cuartil(Q1) 16.0959 1.81960 12.5296 19.6623
Tercer cuartil(Q3) 26.0041 1.81960 22.4377 29.5704

1 3.96322 3.16170 -2.23360 10.1600
2 5.96543 2.89586 0.289654 11.6412
3 7.23577 2.73280 1.87957 12.5920
4 8.19139 2.61361 3.06881 13.3140
5 8.96872 2.51919 4.03120 13.9062
6 9.63035 2.44082 4.84644 14.4143
7 10.2105 2.37377 5.55797 14.8630
8 10.7299 2.31517 6.19226 15.2675
9 11.2023 2.26314 6.76662 15.6380
10 11.6371 2.21640 7.29307 15.9812
20 14.8684 1.91120 11.1225 18.6143
30 17.1983 1.75164 13.7652 20.6315
40 19.1892 1.66851 15.9190 22.4594
50 21.05 1.64237 17.8310 24.2690
60 22.9108 1.66851 19.6406 26.1810
70 24.9017 1.75164 21.4685 28.3348
80 27.2316 1.91120 23.4857 30.9775
90 30.4629 2.21640 26.1188 34.8069
91 30.8977 2.26314 26.4620 35.3334
92 31.3701 2.31517 26.8325 35.9077
93 31.8895 2.37377 27.2370 36.5420
94 32.4697 2.44082 27.6857 37.2536
95 33.1313 2.51919 28.1938 38.0688
96 33.9086 2.61361 28.7860 39.0312
97 34.8642 2.73280 29.5080 40.2204
98 36.1346 2.89586 30.4588 41.8103
99 38.1368 3.16170 31.9400 44.3336
Análisis de distribución: TMP- ACTIVO NUEVO
Variable: TMP- ACTIVO NUEVO
Censura


Media 5.825 0.128817 5.57252 6.07748
Desv.Est. 0.576086 0.0910872 0.422572 0.785370
Bondad de ajuste
Anderson-Darling
(ajustado)
1.334

Media(MTTF) 5.825 0.128817 5.57252 6.07748
Mediana 5.825 0.128817 5.57252 6.07748
Primer cuartil(Q1) 5.43644 0.142718 5.15671 5.71616
Tercer cuartil(Q3) 6.21356 0.142718 5.93384 6.49329

1 4.48482 0.247983 3.99879 4.97086
2 4.64186 0.227132 4.19669 5.08703
3 4.74150 0.214343 4.32140 5.16161
4 4.81645 0.204995 4.41467 5.21824
5 4.87742 0.197589 4.49016 5.26469
6 4.92932 0.191442 4.55410 5.30454
7 4.97482 0.186183 4.60991 5.33973
8 5.01556 0.181587 4.65966 5.37146
9 5.05261 0.177506 4.70470 5.40052
10 5.08672 0.173840 4.74600 5.42744
20 5.34015 0.149902 5.04635 5.63396
30 5.52290 0.137388 5.25363 5.79218
40 5.67905 0.130867 5.42255 5.93555
50 5.825 0.128817 5.57252 6.07748
60 5.97095 0.130867 5.71445 6.22745
70 6.12710 0.137388 5.85782 6.39637
80 6.30985 0.149902 6.01604 6.60365
90 6.56328 0.173840 6.22256 6.90400
91 6.59739 0.177506 6.24948 6.94530
92 6.63444 0.181587 6.27854 6.99034
93 6.67518 0.186183 6.31027 7.04009
94 6.72068 0.191442 6.34546 7.09590
95 6.77258 0.197589 6.38531 7.15984
96 6.83355 0.204995 6.43176 7.23533
97 6.90850 0.214343 6.48839 7.32860
98 7.00814 0.227132 6.56297 7.45331
99 7.16518 0.247983 6.67914 7.65121
Gráfica de probabilidad para TADC- ACTIVO; TEC- ACTIVO ; TMP- ACTIVO

1.2 Reporte Software Minitab – Activo Up grade:
Informe del proyecto de Minitab
DATOS
TTR TBF TMP TEC TADC
11 5040 5.5 20 14
6 5040 6.0 25 7
7 2520 6.5 15 21
3 7560 6.0 20 56
6 2520 6.0 21 42
4 5040 6.0 35 35
18 7560 6.0 15 49
12 5040 6.0 35 35
15 15120 6.0 25 21
3 5040 5.0 15 42
6 7560 5.5 10 56
22 12600 6.5 15 21
5 7560 4.5 30 49
15 2520 5.5 15 56
3 5040 5.5 20 35
5 7560 7.0 35 14
9 2520 6.0 15 42
13 7560 6.5 20 21
7 2520 5.5 15 63
22 10080 5.0 20 42
Análisis de distribución: TTR- ACTIVO UP GRADE

Variable: TTR- ACTIVO UP GRADE

confianza.
Censura


Forma 1.09120 0.197499 0.765316 1.55584
Escala 7.28129 1.57020 4.77143 11.1114
Valor umbral 2.54756 0 2.54756 2.54756
Bondad de ajuste
Anderson-Darling
(ajustado)
0.943

Media(MTTF) 9.59220 1.44424 7.14099 12.8848
Mediana 7.75155 1.25726 5.64065 10.6524
Primer cuartil(Q1) 4.87213 0.795042 3.53849 6.70840
Tercer cuartil(Q3) 12.3698 2.01679 8.98627 17.0272

1 2.65505 0.0919128 2.54756 2.84144
2 2.75138 0.151475 2.54756 3.06487
3 2.84449 0.201313 2.54756 3.26773
4 2.93589 0.245368 2.54756 3.45843
5 3.02627 0.285390 2.54756 3.64066
6 3.11605 0.322362 2.54756 3.81648
7 3.20549 0.356910 2.57703 3.98722
8 3.29478 0.389466 2.61342 4.15379
9 3.38407 0.420344 2.65283 4.31687
10 3.47346 0.449782 2.69488 4.47698
20 4.38932 0.693610 3.22025 5.98283
30 5.37830 0.889407 3.88939 7.43717
40 6.48181 1.06942 4.69092 8.95642
50 7.75155 1.25726 5.64065 10.6524
60 9.26826 1.48256 6.77391 12.6811
70 11.1791 1.79642 8.15873 15.3176
80 13.8094 2.31155 9.94704 19.1716
90 18.1845 3.39199 12.6161 26.2107
91 18.8390 3.57545 12.9870 27.3280
92 19.5678 3.78576 13.3925 28.5906
93 20.3907 4.03053 13.8413 30.0389
94 21.3363 4.32097 14.3462 31.7323
95 22.4492 4.67464 14.9263 33.7635
96 23.8036 5.12135 15.6137 36.2893
97 25.5382 5.71773 16.4671 39.6064
98 27.9632 6.59315 17.6153 44.3897
99 32.0613 8.17032 19.4565 52.8319
Análisis de distribución: TBF -ACTIVO UP GRADE
Variable: TBF -ACTIVO UP GRADE

confianza.
Censura


Forma 0.980970 0.184985 0.677862 1.41961
Escala 3939.14 939.228 2468.57 6285.75
Valor umbral 2332.61 0 2332.61 2332.61
Bondad de ajuste
Anderson-Darling
(ajustado)
1.948

Media(MTTF) 6304.67 907.041 4755.56 8358.40
Mediana 5043.67 725.795 3804.14 6687.07
Primer cuartil(Q1) 3438.77 425.143 2698.78 4381.66
Tercer cuartil(Q3) 7828.13 1253.28 5719.79 10713.6

1 2368.82 35.5251 2332.61 2439.48
2 2406.39 62.7953 2332.61 2532.67
3 2444.74 86.9384 2332.61 2621.21
4 2483.74 109.078 2332.61 2707.00
5 2523.35 129.749 2332.61 2790.91
6 2563.54 149.268 2332.61 2873.45
7 2604.29 167.846 2332.61 2954.95
8 2645.61 185.630 2332.61 3035.64
9 2687.48 202.732 2332.61 3115.71
10 2729.91 219.240 2332.61 3195.28
20 3186.39 362.560 2549.45 3982.47
30 3709.78 484.661 2871.73 4792.40
40 4318.77 601.090 3287.68 5673.24
50 5043.67 725.795 3804.14 6687.07
60 5935.89 878.822 4440.82 7934.29
70 7092.33 1097.14 5237.38 9604.27
80 8731.21 1465.01 6284.22 12131.0
90 11550.8 2260.35 7871.19 16950.4
91 11980.9 2397.66 8093.67 17735.2
92 12462.2 2555.73 8337.46 18627.7
93 13008.5 2740.53 8607.97 19658.5
94 13639.7 2960.89 8913.03 20872.8
95 14387.1 3230.71 9264.67 22341.7
96 15303.0 3573.66 9682.78 24185.5
97 16485.7 4034.96 10204.1 26634.5
98 18155.8 4718.50 10909.3 30215.8
99 21018.5 5966.77 12049.3 36664.2
Gráfica de probabilidad para TTR- ACTIVO UP G; TBF -ACTIVO UP G

Análisis de distribución: TADC- UP GRADE
Variable: TADC- UP GRADE
Censura


Media 36.05 3.57874 29.0358 43.0642
Desv.Est. 16.0046 2.53055 11.7397 21.8188
Bondad de ajuste
Anderson-Darling
(ajustado)
1.124

Media(MTTF) 36.05 3.57874 29.0358 43.0642
Mediana 36.05 3.57874 29.0358 43.0642
Primer cuartil(Q1) 25.2551 3.96493 17.4839 33.0262
Tercer cuartil(Q3) 46.8449 3.96493 39.0738 54.6161

1 -1.18229 6.88937 -14.6852 12.3206
2 3.18055 6.31010 -9.18702 15.5481
3 5.94863 5.95480 -5.72257 17.6198
4 8.03095 5.69509 -3.13122 19.1931
5 9.72476 5.48934 -1.03414 20.4837
6 11.1665 5.31857 0.742259 21.5907
7 12.4305 5.17246 2.29271 22.5684
8 13.5624 5.04477 3.67481 23.4499
9 14.5917 4.93141 4.92636 24.2571
10 15.5393 4.82956 6.07351 25.0050
20 22.5802 4.16453 14.4179 30.7425
30 27.6572 3.81685 20.1763 35.1381
40 31.9953 3.63571 24.8694 39.1211
50 36.05 3.57874 29.0358 43.0642
60 40.1047 3.63571 32.9789 47.2306
70 44.4428 3.81685 36.9619 51.9237
80 49.5198 4.16453 41.3575 57.6821
90 56.5607 4.82956 47.0950 66.0265
91 57.5083 4.93141 47.8429 67.1736
92 58.5376 5.04477 48.6501 68.4252
93 59.6695 5.17246 49.5316 69.8073
94 60.9335 5.31857 50.5093 71.3577
95 62.3752 5.48934 51.6163 73.1341
96 64.0690 5.69509 52.9069 75.2312
97 66.1514 5.95480 54.4802 77.8226
98 68.9194 6.31010 56.5519 81.2870
99 73.2823 6.88937 59.7794 86.7852
Análisis de distribución: TEC- ACTIVO UP GRADE
Variable: TEC- ACTIVO UP GRADE

Censura


Media 21.05 1.64237 17.8310 24.2690
Desv.Est. 7.34490 1.16133 5.38764 10.0132
Bondad de ajuste
Anderson-Darling
(ajustado)
1.807

Media(MTTF) 21.05 1.64237 17.8310 24.2690
Mediana 21.05 1.64237 17.8310 24.2690
Primer cuartil(Q1) 16.0959 1.81960 12.5296 19.6623
Tercer cuartil(Q3) 26.0041 1.81960 22.4377 29.5704

1 3.96322 3.16170 -2.23360 10.1600
2 5.96543 2.89586 0.289654 11.6412
3 7.23577 2.73280 1.87957 12.5920
4 8.19139 2.61361 3.06881 13.3140
5 8.96872 2.51919 4.03120 13.9062
6 9.63035 2.44082 4.84644 14.4143
7 10.2105 2.37377 5.55797 14.8630
8 10.7299 2.31517 6.19226 15.2675
9 11.2023 2.26314 6.76662 15.6380
10 11.6371 2.21640 7.29307 15.9812
20 14.8684 1.91120 11.1225 18.6143
30 17.1983 1.75164 13.7652 20.6315
40 19.1892 1.66851 15.9190 22.4594
50 21.05 1.64237 17.8310 24.2690
60 22.9108 1.66851 19.6406 26.1810
70 24.9017 1.75164 21.4685 28.3348
80 27.2316 1.91120 23.4857 30.9775
90 30.4629 2.21640 26.1188 34.8069
91 30.8977 2.26314 26.4620 35.3334
92 31.3701 2.31517 26.8325 35.9077
93 31.8895 2.37377 27.2370 36.5420
94 32.4697 2.44082 27.6857 37.2536
95 33.1313 2.51919 28.1938 38.0688
96 33.9086 2.61361 28.7860 39.0312
97 34.8642 2.73280 29.5080 40.2204
98 36.1346 2.89586 30.4588 41.8103
99 38.1368 3.16170 31.9400 44.3336
Análisis de distribución: TMP- ACTIVO UP GRADE
Variable: TMP- ACTIVO UP GRADE
Censura


Media 5.825 0.128817 5.57252 6.07748
Desv.Est. 0.576086 0.0910872 0.422572 0.785370
Bondad de ajuste
Anderson-Darling
(ajustado)
1.334

Media(MTTF) 5.825 0.128817 5.57252 6.07748
Mediana 5.825 0.128817 5.57252 6.07748
Primer cuartil(Q1) 5.43644 0.142718 5.15671 5.71616
Tercer cuartil(Q3) 6.21356 0.142718 5.93384 6.49329

1 4.48482 0.247983 3.99879 4.97086
2 4.64186 0.227132 4.19669 5.08703
3 4.74150 0.214343 4.32140 5.16161
4 4.81645 0.204995 4.41467 5.21824
5 4.87742 0.197589 4.49016 5.26469
6 4.92932 0.191442 4.55410 5.30454
7 4.97482 0.186183 4.60991 5.33973
8 5.01556 0.181587 4.65966 5.37146
9 5.05261 0.177506 4.70470 5.40052
10 5.08672 0.173840 4.74600 5.42744
20 5.34015 0.149902 5.04635 5.63396
30 5.52290 0.137388 5.25363 5.79218
40 5.67905 0.130867 5.42255 5.93555
50 5.825 0.128817 5.57252 6.07748
60 5.97095 0.130867 5.71445 6.22745
70 6.12710 0.137388 5.85782 6.39637
80 6.30985 0.149902 6.01604 6.60365
90 6.56328 0.173840 6.22256 6.90400
91 6.59739 0.177506 6.24948 6.94530
92 6.63444 0.181587 6.27854 6.99034
93 6.67518 0.186183 6.31027 7.04009
94 6.72068 0.191442 6.34546 7.09590
95 6.77258 0.197589 6.38531 7.15984
96 6.83355 0.204995 6.43176 7.23533
97 6.90850 0.214343 6.48839 7.32860
98 7.00814 0.227132 6.56297 7.45331
99 7.16518 0.247983 6.67914 7.65121
Gráfica de probabilidad para TADC- UP GRA; TEC- ACTIVO ; TMP- ACTIVO

2.1 Reporte de Software Raptor Sistema Actual
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4.1 Reporte Software Crystal Ball Sistema Propuesto / Up Grade
Forecasts
Worksheet: [CAE - Reemplazo.xlsx]CAE
Forecast: CAE ACTIVO NUEVO
Summary:
Certainty level is 90.000%
Certainty range is from S/141,161.08 to S/154,191.85
Entire range is from S/136,727.71 to S/163,462.49
Base case is S/140,719.83
After 15,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is S/32.51
CAE ACTIVO NUEVO

700
600
500
Frequency
400
300
200
100
0
S/136,943.35 S/142,118.82 S/147,294.29 S/152,469.75 S/158,507.80
Forecast: CAE ACTIVO NUEVO (cont'd)
Statistics: Forecast values

Trials 15,000
Base Case S/140,719.83
Mean S/147,574.93
Median S/147,508.18
Mode ---
Standard Deviation S/3,981.61
Variance ############
Skewness 0.1354
Kurtosis 2.78
Coeff. of Variation 0.0270
Minimum S/136,727.71
Maximum S/163,462.49
Range Width S/26,734.79
Mean Std. Error S/32.51
Percentiles: Forecast values

0% S/136,727.71
10% S/142,452.51
20% S/144,090.66
30% S/145,332.80
40% S/146,448.04
50% S/147,507.94
60% S/148,521.77
70% S/149,672.52
80% S/151,022.64
90% S/152,783.70
100% S/163,462.49
Forecast: CAE ACTIVO UP GRADE
Summary:
Certainty level is 90.000%
Certainty range is from 165,139.37 to 169,110.56
Entire range is from 163,663.73 to 170,512.19
Base case is 167,928.55
After 15,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 9.74
CAE ACTIVO UP GRADE

700
600
500
Frequency
400
300
200
100
0
163,849.46 165,421.56 166,993.66 168,565.75 170,399.87
Statistics: Forecast values

Trials 15,000
Base Case 167,928.55
Mean 167,124.67
Median 167,126.46
Mode ---
Standard Deviation 1,193.11
Variance 1,423,510.28
Skewness -0.0063
Kurtosis 2.53
Coeff. of Variation 0.0071
Minimum 163,663.73
Maximum 170,512.19
Range Width 6,848.46
Mean Std. Error 9.74
Forecast: CAE ACTIVO UP GRADE (cont'd)
Percentiles: Forecast values

0% 163,663.73
10% 165,525.57
20% 166,065.32
30% 166,476.83
40% 166,814.96
50% 167,126.39
60% 167,429.60
70% 167,775.28
80% 168,182.86
90% 168,716.16
100% 170,512.19
Worksheet: [CAE - Reemplazo.xlsx]COSTOS
Assumption: Cambio de Modulo de oxigeno · CU.
Triangular distribution with parameters:

Minimum S/22,500
Likeliest S/25,000
Maximum S/27,500
Cambio de Modulo de oxigeno · CU.
Probability
S/22,500 S/27,500
Assumption: Cantiadad · 14
Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 40,442.23
Maximum 49,429.39
Assumption: Cantiadad · 14 (cont'd)
Cantiadad · 14
Probability
40,442.23 49,429.39
Assumption: Cantidad x ano · 11
Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean 17,100.00
95% 19,912.70
Cantidad x ano · 11
Probability
11,815.70 22,384.30
Assumption: costo · 11
Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean 17,100.00
95% 19,912.70
costo · 11
Probability
11,815.70 22,384.30
Assumption: costo · 14
Weibull distribution with parameters:

Location S/44,935.81
Scale S/4,493.58
Shape 2
Assumption: costo · 14 (cont'd)
costo · 14
Probability
S/44,980.75 S/56,137.91
Assumption: Costo del Activo Nuevo · CU.

Minimum S/225,000
Likeliest S/250,000
Maximum S/275,000
Costo del Activo Nuevo · CU.

Probability
S/225,000 S/275,000
Assumption: Costo promedio media · INDISP.

Minimum 176,727.31
Likeliest 196,363.68
Maximum 216,000.05
Costo promedio media · INDISP.

Probability
176,727.31 216,000.05
Assumption: Costo promedio media · Perdida de Producion

Minimum 176,727.31
Likeliest 196,363.68
Maximum 216,000.05
Assumption: Costo promedio media · Perdida de Producion (cont'd)
Costo promedio media · Perdida de Producion

Probability
176,727.31 216,000.05
Assumption: Producion Optima · 2

Minimum S/100,000
Likeliest S/207,874
Maximum S/229,989
Producion Optima · 2
Probability
S/100,000 S/229,989
Assumption: Producion Optima · 3

Minimum S/199,028.57
Likeliest S/221,142.86
Maximum S/442,285.71
Producion Optima · 3
Probability
S/199,028.57 S/442,285.71
Assumption: valor comercial del equipo actual. · CU.

Minimum S/72,000
Likeliest S/80,000
Maximum S/88,000
Assumption: valor comercial del equipo actual. · CU. (cont'd)
valor comercial del equipo actual. · CU.

Probability
S/72,000 S/88,000
Worksheet: [CAE - Reemplazo.xlsx]DATOS
Assumption: prodicon del equipo · Costo(s/.) SOP 1

Minimum S/58,909.09 (=R21)
Likeliest S/190,984.42
Maximum S/392,727.27 (=R20)
prodicon del equipo · Costo(s/.) SOP 1
Probability
S/58,909.09 S/392,727.27

ANEXO G - Reporte de Software

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ANEXO G: Reporte de software

1.1 Reporte Software Minitab – Activo Nuevo

Análisis de distribución: TTR- ACTIVO NUEVO

* ADVERTENCIA * La matriz de varianzas y covarianzas de los parámetros estimados no existe.

Método de cálculo: Máxima verosimilitud

Cálculos del parámetro

Error IC normal de 95.0%

Error IC normal de 95.0%

Error IC normal de 95.0%

Análisis de distribución: TBF -ACTIVO NUEVO

Variable: TBF -ACTIVO NUEVO

Información de censura Conteo

Método de cálculo: Máxima verosimilitud

Distribución: Weibull de 3 parámetros

Cálculos del parámetro

Error IC normal de 95.0%

Error IC normal de 95.0%

Error IC normal de 95.0%

Gráfica de probabilidad para TTR- ACTIVO NUEVO; TBF -ACTIVO NUEVO

Método de cálculo: Máxima verosimilitud

Cálculos del parámetro

Error IC normal de 95.0%

Error IC normal de 95.0%

Error IC normal de 95.0%

Análisis de distribución: TEC- ACTIVO NUEVO

Variable: TEC- ACTIVO NUEVO

Información de censura Conteo

Método de cálculo: Máxima verosimilitud

Cálculos del parámetro

Error IC normal de 95.0%

Error IC normal de 95.0%

Error IC normal de 95.0%

Análisis de distribución: TMP- ACTIVO NUEVO

Variable: TMP- ACTIVO NUEVO

Información de censura Conteo

Método de cálculo: Máxima verosimilitud

Cálculos del parámetro

Error IC normal de 95.0%

Error IC normal de 95.0%

Error IC normal de 95.0%

Gráfica de probabilidad para TADC- ACTIVO; TEC- ACTIVO ; TMP- ACTIVO

Informe del proyecto de Minitab

Análisis de distribución: TTR- ACTIVO UP GRADE

* ADVERTENCIA * La matriz de varianzas y covarianzas de los parámetros estimados no existe.

Método de cálculo: Máxima verosimilitud

Cálculos del parámetro

Error IC normal de 95.0%

Error IC normal de 95.0%

Error IC normal de 95.0%

Análisis de distribución: TBF -ACTIVO UP GRADE

Variable: TBF -ACTIVO UP GRADE

* ADVERTENCIA * La matriz de varianzas y covarianzas de los parámetros estimados no existe.

Información de censura Conteo

Método de cálculo: Máxima verosimilitud

Distribución: Weibull de 3 parámetros

Cálculos del parámetro

Error IC normal de 95.0%

Error IC normal de 95.0%

Error IC normal de 95.0%

Gráfica de probabilidad para TTR- ACTIVO UP G; TBF -ACTIVO UP G

Método de cálculo: Máxima verosimilitud

Cálculos del parámetro

Error IC normal de 95.0%

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