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Año Ventas (Millones de pesos) PM(2) PM(3) PM(4) ERROR PM(2)

1999 $50
2000 $55
2001 $52 $52.50
2002 $60 $53.50 $52.33 6.50
2003 $58 $56.00 $55.67 $54.25 2.00
2004 $60 $59.00 $56.67 $56.25 1.00
2005 $62 $59.00 $59.33 $57.50 3.00
2006 $57 $61.00 $60.00 $60.00 4.00
2007 $63 $59.50 $59.67 $59.25 3.50
2008 $62 $60.00 $60.67 $60.50 2.00
2009 $62.50 $60.67 $61.00
2010 $62.25 $61.89 $60.75
2011 $62.38 $61.52 $61.69
2012 $62.31 $61.36 $61.36

3.14

Suavizacion exponencial

Año Ventas (Millones de pesos) alfa 0,1 alfa 0,2 alfa 0,3 alfa 0,4
1999 $50 $50.00 $50.00 $50 $50
2000 $55 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00
2001 $52 $54.50 $54.00 $53.50 $53.00
2002 $60 $52.25 $52.40 $52.45 $52.40
2003 $58 $59.23 $58.48 $57.74 $56.96
2004 $60 $58.12 $58.10 $57.92 $57.58
2005 $62 $59.81 $59.62 $59.38 $59.03
2006 $57 $61.78 $61.52 $61.21 $60.81
2007 $63 $57.48 $57.90 $58.26 $58.53
2008 $62 $62.45 $61.98 $61.58 $61.21
2009 $62.04 $62.00 $61.87 $61.68

La mejor proyeccion se defin


ERROR PM(3) ERROR PM(4) Karen Eliana Bermudez Torres
karene.bermudezt@utadeo.edu.co

7.67
2.33 3.75
3.33 3.75
2.67 4.50
3.00 3.00
3.33 3.75
1.33 1.50

3.38 3.38 Desviacion Media

alfa 0,5 error alfa 0,1 error alfa 0,2 error alfa 0,3 error alfa 0,4 error alfa 0,5
$50 0 0 0 0 0
$50.00 5 5 5 5 5
$52.50 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5
$52.25 7.75 7.6 7.55 7.6 7.75
$56.13 1.225 0.48 0.265 1.04 1.875
$57.06 1.8775 1.904 2.0795 2.416 2.9375
$58.53 2.18775 2.3808 2.62385 2.9664 3.46875
$60.27 4.781225 4.52384 4.212845 3.81344 3.265625
$58.63 5.5218775 5.095232 4.7361465 4.474624 4.3671875
$60.82 0.44781225 0.0190464 0.42084395 0.7898496 1.18359375
$61.41

3.129116475 2.90029184 2.838818545 2.91003136 3.034765625 MAD

mejor proyeccion se define con el error mas bajo que es 2,838818545


Ventas
(Millones
Año Semestre PM(2) PMC
de
Unidades)
6/30/2004 500
2004
12/31/2004 200 350.00
6/30/2005 550 375.00 362.50
2005
12/31/2005 220 385.00 380.00
6/30/2006 562 391.00 388.00
2006
12/31/2006 225 393.50 392.25
6/30/2007 570 397.50 395.50
2007
12/31/2007 232 401.00 399.25
6/30/2008 582 407.00 404.00
2008
12/31/2008 238 410.00 408.50
6/30/2009 613.74 584.93
2009
12/31/2009 247.13 251.30
6/30/2010 634.05 #VALUE!
2010
12/31/2010 255.18 #VALUE!

IE(I) 1.46
IE(II) 0.58
Ventas
EST EPS Desestacion Tiempo
alizadas

342.03 0
345.38 1
1.52 376.23 2
0.58 379.92 3
1.45 384.44 4
0.57 388.56 5
1.44 389.91 6
0.58 400.64 7
1.44 398.12 8
0.58 411.01 9
419.83 10
426.78 11
433.72 12
440.67 13
Ventas Gasto en
(Millones publicidad
Año
de (millones de 40.00
unidades) pesos)
35.00
1999 5.00 10.0
f(x) = 0.7030192328355 x − 2.36155581820135
2000 10.00 22.0 30.00
R² = 0.95758490308158
2001 6.00 10.0 25.00
2002 6.50 10.0
2003 36.30 50.0 20.00
2004 2.00 5.0 15.00
2005 5.20 10.0
2006 15.00 30.0 10.00

2007 22.00 40.0 5.00


2008 35.00 50.0
0.00
2009 39.82 60.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.
− 2.36155581820135

30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0


Ventas
Año (Millones
de pesos) PM(3) ERROR PM(3)
1999 $ 50
2000 $ 55
2001 $ 52
2002 $ 60 $ 52.75 7.25
2003 $ 58 $ 58.00 0.00
2004 $ 60 $ 58.50 1.50
2005 $ 62 $ 59.50 2.50
2006 $ 57 $ 61.50 4.50
2007 $ 63 $ 58.25 4.75
2008 $ 62 $ 61.50 0.50
2009 $ 62.25

3.00 MAD
PONDERADORES
T-1 0
T-2 0.25
T-3 0.75
SUMA 1