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Cálculo Del VAR de Una Cartera de Bonos
Cálculo Del VAR de Una Cartera de Bonos
Inversión 100,000,000
Letras de tesorería 50%
Bono a 10 años 50%
Interés Precio Cambio en el precio
LT B10 LT B10 Cartera LT B10
Sep-97 3.7 5.5 96.43 96.14 96.29
Oct-97 4 5.6 96.15 95.78 95.97 -0.29% -0.38%
Nov-97 4 5.4 96.13 96.62 96.38 -0.02% 0.87%
Dec-97 3.9 5.3 96.29 97.5 96.90 0.17% 0.91%
Jan-98 3.7 5 96.41 99.62 98.02 0.12% 2.15%
Feb-98 3.7 4.9 96.47 100.58 98.53 0.06% 0.96%
Mar-98 3.8 4.9 96.31 100.72 98.52 -0.17% 0.14%
Apr-98 3.9 5 96.29 100.18 98.24 -0.02% -0.54%
May-98 3.8 4.8 96.36 101.34 98.85 0.07% 1.15%
Jun-98 3.8 4.8 96.33 101.77 99.05 -0.03% 0.42%
Jul-98 3.7 4.6 96.39 102.99 99.69 0.06% 1.19%
Aug-98 3.5 4.2 96.58 106.37 101.48 0.20% 3.23%
Sep-98 3.5 3.8 96.64 109.57 103.11 0.06% 2.96%
Oct-98 3.3 4.1 96.76 107.15 101.96 0.12% -2.23%
Nov-98 3.3 1 96.85 108.47 102.66 0.09% 1.22%
Dec-98 2.9 3.9 97.18 109.31 103.25 0.34% 0.77%
Jan-99 2.8 3.6 97.25 111.36 104.31 0.07% 1.86%
Feb-99 2.9 4 97.15 108.12 102.64 -0.10% -2.95%
Mar-99 2.8 4 97.25 108.18 102.72 0.10% 0.06%
Apr-99 2.5 3.8 97.58 109.76 103.67 0.34% 1.45%
May-99 2.6 4.1 97.48 107.24 102.36 -0.10% -2.32%
Jun-99 2.7 4.5 97.35 103.99 100.67 -0.13% -3.08%
Jul-99 3 4.8 97.13 101.85 99.49 -0.23% -2.08%
Aug-99 3 4.9 97.09 100.93 99.01 -0.04% -0.91%
Sep-99 3.1 5.1 96.96 99.54 98.25 -0.13% -1.39%
Oct-99 3.5 5.1 96.62 99.23 97.93 -0.35% -0.31%
Nov-99 3.5 5.1 96.6 99.12 97.86 -0.02% -0.11%
Dec-99 3.7 5.4 96.44 97.34 96.89 -0.17% -1.81%
Jan-00 3.8 5.5 96.33 96.05 96.19 -0.11% -1.33%
Feb-00 4 5.5 96.14 96.27 96.21 -0.20% 0.23%
Mar-00 4.2 5.2 96.01 98.45 97.23 -0.14% 2.24%
Apr-00 4.4 5.3 95.76 97.8 96.78 -0.26% -0.66%
May-00 4.8 5.2 95.39 98.66 97.03 -0.39% 0.88%
Jun-00 4.9 5.2 95.34 98.47 96.91 -0.05% -0.19%
Jul-00 5.1 5.2 95.14 98.48 96.81 -0.21% 0.01%
Aug-00 5.2 5.3 95.09 97.77 96.43 -0.05% -0.72%
Sep-00 5.1 5.2 95.16 98.29 96.73 0.07% 0.53%
3.68 4.72 -0.04% 0.06%
0.71 0.85 0.17% 1.56%
172,251 1,559,883
mbio en el precio
Cartera
-0.33%
0.43%
0.54%
1.15%
0.52%
-0.01%
-0.28%
0.62%
0.20%
0.64%
1.77%
1.59%
-1.12%
0.69%
0.57%
1.02%
-1.61%
0.08%
0.93%
-1.27%
-1.66%
-1.18%
-0.48%
-0.77%
-0.33%
-0.07%
-1.00%
-0.73%
0.02%
1.06%
-0.46%
0.25%
-0.12%
-0.10%
-0.39%
0.31%
0.01% Media
0.85% Desviación estándar
1,699,174 VAR en pesos
1 2 3 4
Rating Año 1 Año 2 Año 3 Año 4
AAA 3.60% 4.17% 4.73% 5.12%
AA 3.65% 4.22% 4.78% 5.17%
A 3.72% 4.32% 4.93% 5.32%
BBB 4.10% 4.67% 5.25% 5.63%
BB 5.55% 6.02% 6.78% 7.27%
B 6.05% 7.02% 8.03% 8.52%
CCC 15.05% 15.02% 14.03% 13.52%
Fuente: CreditMetrics; Technical document, 1997
Desviación
Clase de Seniority Media (%)
estándar (%)
Senior secured 53.80% 26.86%
Senior unsecured 51.13% 25.45%
Senior subordinated 38.52% 23.81%
Subordinated 32.74% 20.18%
Junior subordinated 17.09% 10.90%
Fuente: Carty & Lieberman-Moody's Investors Service
mTotal = 107.07
s2Total = 8.94
s Total
= 2.99 VAR 5% = $ 4.93
VAR 1% = $ 6.97
CCC Default
0.12% 0.18%
83.63 51.13
549.60 3129.21
0.660 5.633
Cálculo del VAR de crédito de una cartera de dos bonos
1 2 3 4
Rating Año 1 Año 2 Año 3 Año 4
AAA 3.60% 4.17% 4.73% 5.12%
AA 3.65% 4.22% 4.78% 5.17%
A 3.72% 4.32% 4.93% 5.32%
BBB 4.10% 4.67% 5.25% 5.63%
BB 5.55% 6.02% 6.78% 7.27%
B 6.05% 7.02% 8.03% 8.52%
CCC 15.05% 15.02% 14.03% 13.52%
Fuente: CreditMetrics; Technical document, 1997
Clase de Desviación
Media (%)
Seniority estándar (%)
Senior secured 53.80% 26.86%
Senior unsecured 51.13% 25.45%
Senior subordinate 38.52% 23.81%
Subordinated 32.74% 20.18%
Junior subordinate 17.09% 10.90%
Fuente: Carty & Lieberman-Moody's Investors Service
Bono A
Bono BBB AAA AA A BBB BB
0.09% 2.27% 91.05% 5.52% 0.74%
AAA 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
AA 0.33% 0.00% 0.04% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00%
A 5.95% 0.02% 0.39% 5.44% 0.08% 0.01%
BBB 86.93% 0.07% 1.81% 79.69% 4.55% 0.57%
BB 5.30% 0.00% 0.02% 4.47% 0.64% 0.11%
B 1.17% 0.00% 0.00% 0.92% 0.18% 0.04%
CCC 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.09% 0.02% 0.00%
Default 0.18% 0.00% 0.00% 0.13% 0.04% 0.01%
Bono A
Bono BBB AAA AA A BBB BB
104.78 104.60 104.08 103.00 97.59
AAA 109.35 214.13 213.95 213.43 212.35 206.95
AA 109.17 213.95 213.77 213.25 212.17 206.77
A 108.64 213.42 213.24 212.72 211.64 206.24
BBB 107.53 212.31 212.13 211.61 210.53 205.12
BB 102.01 206.78 206.61 206.09 205.00 199.60
B 98.09 202.86 202.69 202.17 201.08 195.68
CCC 83.63 188.40 188.23 187.71 186.62 181.22
Default 51.13 155.91 155.73 155.21 154.13 148.72
s Total
= 3.35 VAR 5% = $ 5.53
VAR 1% = $ 7.80
CCC Default
0.00% 0.00%
0.02% 0.00%
0.01% 0.06%
0.12% 0.18%
1.00% 1.06%
4.07% 5.20%
64.86% 19.79%
CCC Default
0.01% 0.06%
79.72 53.80
A
B CCC Default
0.26% 0.01% 0.06%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.19% 0.01% 0.04%
0.04% 0.00% 0.01%
0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
A
B CCC Default
93.76 79.72 53.80
203.11 189.08 163.15 214.13 213.95 213.43
202.93 188.90 162.97 213.95 213.77 213.25
202.40 188.37 162.44 213.42 213.24 212.72
201.29 187.26 161.33 212.31 212.13 211.61
195.76 181.73 155.81 206.78 206.61 206.09
191.84 177.81 151.89 202.86 202.69 202.17
177.38 163.35 137.43 188.40 188.23 187.71
144.89 130.85 104.93 155.91 155.73 155.21
Precios Variacion
LT B10 Cartera LT B10 Cartera
May-01 96.43 96.14 96.29 - - -
Jun-01 96.15 95.78 95.97 -0.29% -0.37% -0.33%
Jul-01 96.13 96.62 96.38 -0.02% 0.88% 0.43%
Aug-01 96.29 97.5 96.90 0.17% 0.91% 0.54%
Sep-01 96.41 99.62 98.02 0.12% 2.17% 1.16%
Oct-01 96.47 100.58 98.53 0.06% 0.96% 0.52%
Nov-01 96.31 100.72 98.52 -0.17% 0.14% -0.01%
Dec-01 96.29 100.18 98.24 -0.02% -0.54% -0.28%
Jan-02 96.36 101.34 98.85 0.07% 1.16% 0.63%
Feb-02 96.33 101.77 99.05 -0.03% 0.42% 0.20%
Mar-02 96.39 102.99 99.69 0.06% 1.20% 0.65%
Apr-02 96.58 106.37 101.48 0.20% 3.28% 1.79%
May-02 96.64 109.57 103.11 0.06% 3.01% 1.61%
Jun-02 96.76 107.15 101.96 0.12% -2.21% -1.12%
Jul-02 96.85 108.47 102.66 0.09% 1.23% 0.69%
Aug-02 97.18 109.31 103.25 0.34% 0.77% 0.57%
Sep-02 97.25 111.36 104.31 0.07% 1.88% 1.03%
Oct-02 97.15 108.12 102.64 -0.10% -2.91% -1.60%
Nov-02 97.25 108.18 102.72 0.10% 0.06% 0.08%
Dec-02 97.58 109.76 103.67 0.34% 1.46% 0.93%
Jan-03 97.48 107.24 102.36 -0.10% -2.30% -1.26%
Feb-03 97.35 103.99 100.67 -0.13% -3.03% -1.65%
Mar-03 97.13 101.85 99.49 -0.23% -2.06% -1.17%
Apr-03 97.09 100.93 99.01 -0.04% -0.90% -0.48%
May-03 96.96 99.54 98.25 -0.13% -1.38% -0.77%
Jun-03 96.62 99.23 97.93 -0.35% -0.31% -0.33%
Jul-03 96.6 99.12 97.86 -0.02% -0.11% -0.07%
Aug-03 96.44 97.34 96.89 -0.17% -1.80% -0.99%
Sep-03 96.33 96.05 96.19 -0.11% -1.33% -0.72%
Oct-03 96.14 96.27 96.21 -0.20% 0.23% 0.02%
Nov-03 96.01 98.45 97.23 -0.14% 2.26% 1.07%
Dec-03 95.76 97.8 96.78 -0.26% -0.66% -0.46%
Jan-04 95.39 98.66 97.03 -0.39% 0.88% 0.25%
Feb-04 95.34 98.47 96.91 -0.05% -0.19% -0.12%
Mar-04 95.14 98.48 96.81 -0.21% 0.01% -0.10%
Apr-04 95.09 97.77 96.43 -0.05% -0.72% -0.39%
May-04 95.16 98.29 96.73 0.07% 0.53% 0.31%
Soberano 0% 100%
Gobiernos regionales y locales Igual que las entidades de crédito
Empresas públicas Igual que las empresas
Entidades de crédito 20% 100%
Empresas 100% 100%
Coeficientes propuestos en Basilea II.
Por debajo No
clasificados
Rating de crédito externo AAA a AA- A+ a A-
de B-
150% 100% Ponderación de riesgo según Basilea II 20% 50%
de crédito Requerimientos de capital según Basilea II 1,6% 4%
de crédito Ponderación de riesgo según Basilea I 100% 100%
Requerimientos de capital según Basilea I 8% 8%
150% 50%
150% 100%
150% 100%
LGD
la entidad más un escalón. Créditos a empresas, gobiernos y entidades 45%
financieras (sin garantías)
Obligaciones subordinadas corporativas 75%
Garantizadas con ctas a cobrar 40%
nes corporativas
No
BBB+ a BB- Inferior a BB-
calificada
100% 150% 100%
8% 12% 8%
100% 100% 100%
8% 8% 8%