Tabla Nº 4: Valores Criticos de o del estadistico Smirnov - Kolmogorov 

para varios N y niveles de Significacion a.

N NIVEL DE SIGNIFICACION a
(Tamaño
Muestral) 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.01

1 0.900 0.925 0.950 0.975 0.995

2 0.684 0.726 0.776 0.842 0.929
3 0.565 0.597 0.642 0.708 0.828
4 0.494 0.525 0.564 0.624 0.733
5 0.446 0.474 0.510 0.565 0.669
6 0.410 0.436 0.470 0.521 0.618
7 0.381 0.405 0.438 0.486 0.577
8 0.358 0.381 0.411 0.457 0.543
9 0.339 0.360 0.388 0.432 0.514
10 0.322 0.342 0.368 0.410 0.490
11 0.307 0.326 0.352 0.391 0.468
12 0.295 0.313 0.338 0.375 0.450
13 0.284 0.302 0.325 0.361 0.433
14 0.274 0.292 0.314 0.349 0.418
15 0.266 0.283 0.304 0.338 0.404
16 0.258 0.274 0.295 0.328 0.392
17 0.250 0.266 0.286 0.318 0.381
18 0.244 0.259 0.278 0.309 0.371
19 0.237 0.252 0.272 0.301 0.363
20 0.231 0.246 0.264 0.294 0.356
25 0.210 0.220 0.240 0.270 0.320
30 0.190 0.200 0.220 0.240 0.290
35 0.180 0.190 0.210 0.230 0.270
1 . 07 1 . 14 1 . 22 1 . 36 1 . 63
N>35
√N √N √N √N √N
Fuente:
 CUADRO Nº 4.12
PRECIPITACIONES MÁXIMAS
INSTANTANEAS.
PPC MAX. ANUAL HSITORICOS (mm.)
Nº AÑO
HISTORICOS
1.00 1971 52.20
2.00 1972 41.80
3.00 1973 40.40
4.00 1974 38.20
5.00 1975 32.70
6.00 1976 31.00
7.00 1977 31.00
8.00 1978 31.00
9.00 1979 30.40
10.00 1980 30.30
11.00 1981 30.20
12.00 1982 29.20
13.00 1983 28.30
14.00 1984 27.70
15.00 1985 27.60
16.00 1986 27.50
17.00 1987 26.60
18.00 1988 26.00
19.00 1989 25.80
20.00 1990 24.50
21.00 1991 24.30
22.00 1992 24.20
23.00 1993 23.60
24.00 1994 23.20
25.00 1995 21.80
26.00 1996 20.80
27.00 1997 20.70
28.00 1998 20.40
29.00 1999 18.80
30.00 2000 17.60
31.00 2001 17.20
32.00 2002 16.70
ESTIMACIÓN DE PARÁMETROS DE LA DISTRIBUCIÓN NORMAL

Xi (Observ)
m MÉTODO DE MOMENTOS Y DE MÁXIMA VEROSIMILITUD
(mm.)
1 52.20
2 41.80 2
3 40.40
f ( X )=
1 −
e 2
[
1 X- μ
σ ]
4 38.20
5 32.70
σ √2 π
6 31.00 n
7 31.00 1
8 31.00 Media
μ=
n
∑ Xi
i=1
9 30.40 1 /2

[ ]
n
1 2
10
11
30.30
30.20
Desviación estándarσ =
n-1
∑ ( X i− μ )
i=1
12 29.20 Donde :
13 28.30 f(X) = función de densidad.
14 27.70 m = media de los datos observados
15 27.60 s = desviación estándar de los datos observados
16 27.50 X = variable hidrológica en estudio.
17 26.60 Xi = i-esima variable hidrológica.
18 26.00 e = base de los logaritmos neperianos(Ln).
19 25.80 ESTIMACIÓN DE PARÁMETROS
20 24.50 - Para los métodos de Momentos y de Máxima Verosimilitud
21 24.30 n= 32
22 24.20 m= 27.55313
23 23.60 s= 7.67598
24 23.20
25 21.80
26 20.80
27 20.70
28 20.40
29 18.80
30 17.60
31 17.20
32 16.70
 ESTIMACION DE PARAMETROS DE LA DISTRIBUCION LOG-NORMAL DE 2 PARAMETROS

Csy = 0.345
Xi (Observ)
m LN Xi
(mm.)
1 52.20 3.955
2 41.80 3.733 METODO DE MOMENTOS
3 40.40 3.699
2
4
5
38.20
32.70
3.643
3.487
f ( X )=
1
e
−
2[
1 Ln ( X )−μ y
σy ]
6 31.00 3.434 X .σ y √2 π
7 31.00 3.434
8 31.00 3.434 μ2
9 30.40 3.414 Media μy =
1
2
Ln
( 2
CV+1 )
10 30.30 3.411
11 30.20 3.408
12 29.20 3.374 Desviación estándar de los = Ln ( C 2V +1 )
σ yLn(x) [ ] 1 /2

13 28.30 3.343
14 27.70 3.321
Coeficiente de Variación C V =
σ
15 27.60 3.318
16 27.50 3.314 μ
17 26.60 3.281 Donde :
18 26.00 3.258 f(X) = función de densidad.
19 25.80 3.250 my = media de los Ln(x).
20 24.50 3.199 m = media de los datos observados.
21 24.30 3.190 sy = desviación estándar de los Ln(x).
22 24.20 3.186 X = variable hidrológica en estudio.
23 23.60 3.161 CV = Coeficiente de variación de los datos observados.
24 23.20 3.144 ESTIMACION DE PARAMETROS
25 21.80 3.082 - Para el método de Momentos
26 20.80 3.035 m= 27.55313
27 20.70 3.030 s= 7.67598
28 20.40 3.016 Cv = 0.27859
29 18.80 2.934 my = 3.27874
30 17.60 2.868 sy = 0.27340
31 17.20 2.845
32 16.70 2.815
METODO DE MAXIMA VEROSIMILITUD
Media de los Ln(x) 1
n
μy =
n
∑ Ln ( X i )
i=1
Desviación estándar de los Ln(x)
1/ 2

[ ]
n
1
σ y= ∑ ( Ln ( X i )− μ y )2
n i =1
Donde :
Ln(xi) = Logaritmo neperiano de la i-esima variable hidrológ
n = Numero de datos.
Xi = i-esima variable hidrológica.
ESTIMACION DE PARAMETROS
- Para el método de Máxima Verosimilitud
my = 3.19281
sy = 0.26240
 ESTIMACION DE PARAMETROS DE LA DISTRIBUCION LOG-NORMAL DE 3 PARAMETROS

Xi (Observ)
m (Xi - a) LN( Xi - a) (sy2- my)/(Xi -a) LN(Xi- a)/(Xi -a) LN(Xi- a) -my
(mm.)
METODO DE MOMENTOS 2

1 52.20 189.07 5.242 -0.027 0.028 0.141

f ( X )=
1
e
−
2[
1 Ln( X-)−μ y
σy ]
2 41.80 178.67 5.186 -0.029 0.029 0.084 ( X- ) σ y √ 2 π
3 40.40 177.27 5.178 -0.029 0.029 0.076 Media
4 38.20 175.07 5.165 -0.029 0.030 0.064 μ y = Ln
( )σ
z2
1
− Ln ( z 22 +1 )
2
5 32.70 169.57 5.133 -0.030 0.030 0.032 Desviación estándar 1 /2
σ y = Ln (  22 + 1 )
[ ]
6 31.00 167.87 5.123 -0.030 0.031 0.022
7 31.00 167.87 5.123 -0.030 0.031 0.022 Parámetro de posición σ
a= μ−
8 31.00 167.87 5.123 -0.030 0.031 0.022 2
9 30.40 167.27 5.120 -0.030 0.031 0.018 Coef. de Var. de la distrib. Log-normal de 3 parámetros.
10 30.30 167.17 5.119 -0.031 0.031 0.018 1- ϖ 2/3
 2=
ϖ 1 /3
11 30.20 167.07 5.118 -0.031 0.031 0.017 Coef. de Var. de la distrib. Log-normal de 3 parámetros.
12 29.20 166.07 5.112 -0.031 0.031 0.011 -CS + √ C 2S +4
13 28.30 165.17 5.107 -0.031 0.031 0.006 ϖ=
Coeficiente de Asimetría 2
n
14 27.70 164.57 5.103 -0.031 0.031 0.002 n ∑ ( X i− μ ) 3
i=1
15 27.60 164.47 5.103 -0.031 0.031 0.001 Donde : C S=
( n-1 ) ( n-2 ) σ 3
16 27.50 164.37 5.102 -0.031 0.031 0.001 f(X) = función de densidad.
17 26.60 163.47 5.097 -0.031 0.031 -0.005 my = media de los Ln(x-a).
18 26.00 162.87 5.093 -0.031 0.031 -0.008 sy = desviación estándar de los Ln(x-a)-my
19 25.80 162.67 5.092 -0.031 0.031 -0.010 X = variable hidrológica en estudio.
20 24.50 161.37 5.084 -0.032 0.032 -0.018 a = Parámetro de posición.
21 24.30 161.17 5.082 -0.032 0.032 -0.019 z2 = coef. de var. de la distrib. Log-Normal de 3 parámetros.
22 24.20 161.07 5.082 -0.032 0.032 -0.020 CS = coeficiente de asimetría de los datos observados.
23 23.60 160.47 5.078 -0.032 0.032 -0.023 ESTIMACION DE PARAMETROS
24 23.20 160.07 5.076 -0.032 0.032 -0.026 - Para el método de Momentos
25 21.80 158.67 5.067 -0.032 0.032 -0.035 m= 27.55313
26 20.80 157.67 5.061 -0.032 0.032 -0.041 s= 7.67598
27 20.70 157.57 5.060 -0.032 0.032 -0.042 CS = 1.21968
28 20.40 157.27 5.058 -0.032 0.032 -0.043 w= 0.56144
29 18.80 155.67 5.048 -0.033 0.032 -0.054 Z2 = 0.38721
30 17.60 154.47 5.040 -0.033 0.033 -0.061 my = 2.91703
31 17.20 154.07 5.037 -0.033 0.033 -0.064 sy = 0.37377
32 16.70 153.57 5.034 -0.033 0.033 -0.067 a= 7.72931
METODO DE MAXIMA VEROSIMILITUD
Media 1
n
μ y = ∑ Ln ( X i −a )
n i=1
Desviación estándar 1/ 2

[ ]
n
1 2
σ y= ∑ [ Ln ( X i −a ) − μ y ]
n i =1

Ecuación para realizar la iteración

[ ( σ 2y− μ y )
] ∑[ Ln ( X i− a )
]
n n
∑ + =0
i =1 ( X i −a ) i=1 ( X i −a )

-0.99442 0.99444 0.000021 OK'

ESTIMACION DE PARAMETROS
- Para el método de Máxima Verosimilitud
my = 5.10144
sy = 0.04561
a = -136.87300
Por iteración, dando valores al "a":
Coef. de Var. de la distrib. Log-normal de 3 parámetros.

Coef. de Var. de la distrib. Log-normal de 3 parámetros.

= desviación estándar de los Ln(x-a)-my.

= coef. de var. de la distrib. Log-Normal de 3 parámetros.

= coeficiente de asimetría de los datos observados.
 ESTIMACION DE PARAMETROS DE LA DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL

m Xi e(-b * Xi) Xi * e(-b * Xi) METODO DE MOMENTOS

− β (x− α )
1 52.20 0.0001 0.0038 F( X )= e−e
2 41.80 0.0005 0.0202 Parámetro de Escala
α =μ-0 . 45005 σ
3 40.40 0.0006 0.0252
4 38.20 0.0009 0.0356 Parámetro de posición
1 . 2825
5 32.70 0.0025 0.0831 β=
σ
6 31.00 0.0035 0.1075 Donde :
7 31.00 0.0035 0.1075 F(X) = función de distribución acumulada.
8 31.00 0.0035 0.1075 a = Parámetro de escala.
9 30.40 0.0039 0.1177 b = Parámetro de posición.
10 30.30 0.0039 0.1195 X = variable hidrológica en estudio.
11 30.20 0.0040 0.1213 m = media de los datos observados.
12 29.20 0.0048 0.1407 8 = desviación estándar de los datos observados.
13 28.30 0.0057 0.1608 ESTIMACION DE PARAMETROS
14 27.70 0.0063 0.1756 - Para el método de Momentos
15 27.60 0.0065 0.1782 n= 32
16 27.50 0.0066 0.1808 m= 27.55313
17 26.60 0.0078 0.2062 s= 7.67598
18 26.00 0.0086 0.2249 a= 24.09856
19 25.80 0.0090 0.2314 b= 0.16708
20 24.50 0.0114 0.2787 METODO DE MAXIMA VEROSIMILITUD
21 24.30 0.0118 0.2867 Parámetro de posición

[ ]
1 n
α= ln
22 24.20 0.0120 0.2908 β n
− β . xi
23 23.60 0.0134 0.3164 ∑e
i=1

24 23.20 0.0144 0.3347 Ecuación para realizar la iteración

n n
−β. X i
25 21.80 0.0186 0.4061 ∑ ( X i⋅e ) ∑X i
1 i=1
26 20.80 0.0224 0.4652 + n
− i=1 =0
β −β . X i n
27 20.70 0.0228 0.4715 ∑e
i=1

28 20.40 0.0241 0.4908 5.4733 21.5580 27.0313 0.00000

29 18.80 0.0322 0.6059 ESTIMACION DE PARAMETROS
30 17.60 0.0401 0.7063 - Para el método de Máxima Verosimilitud
31 17.20 0.0432 0.7426 n= 32
32 16.70 0.0473 0.7899 m = 27.55313
a = 24.04154
b = 0.1827064
 ESTIMACION DE PARAMETROS DE LA DISTRIBUCION PEARSON TIPO III

Xi (Observ)
m LnX Xi - g 1/(Xi - g)
(mm.) METODO DE MOMENTOS
1 52.20 3.96 51.52 0.01941
1 β−1 ( X −γ
−
α )
2 41.80 3.73 41.12 0.02432 f ( X )=
αΓ ( β ) ( X −α γ ) e
3 40.40 3.70 39.72 0.02518 Parámetro de Escala
σ
4 38.20 3.64 37.52 0.02665 α= x
√β
5 32.70 3.49 32.02 0.03123 Parámetro de Forma
2

6 31.00 3.43 30.32 0.03298 β=

( 2
Cs )
7 31.00 3.43 30.32 0.03298 Parámetro de posición: depende del Coeficiente de asimetría Cs
8 31.00 3.43 30.32 0.03298 ó
γ = μ−σ √ β γ =μ+ σ √ β
9 30.40 3.41 29.72 0.03365 Donde :
10 30.30 3.41 29.62 0.03376 f(X) = función de densidad.
11 30.20 3.41 29.52 0.03388 a = Parámetro de escala.
12 29.20 3.37 28.52 0.03507 b = Parámetro de forma.
13 28.30 3.34 27.62 0.03621 X = variable hidrológica en estudio.
14 27.70 3.32 27.02 0.03701 g = Parámetro de posición.
15 27.60 3.32 26.92 0.03715 (b) = función gamma.
16 27.50 3.31 26.82 0.03729 ESTIMACION DE PARAMETROS
17 26.60 3.28 25.92 0.03858 - Para el método de Momentos
18 26.00 3.26 25.32 0.03950 n= 32
19 25.80 3.25 25.12 0.03981 m = 27.55313
20 24.50 3.20 23.82 0.04199 s = 7.67598
21 24.30 3.19 23.62 0.04234 Cs = 1.21968 Positivo
22 24.20 3.19 23.52 0.04252 C's = 1.62064 mejorado
23 23.60 3.16 22.92 0.04363 a = 6.21999
24 23.20 3.14 22.52 0.04441 b = 1.52296
25 21.80 3.08 21.12 0.04735 g = 18.08034
26 20.80 3.03 20.12 0.04971 METODO DE MAXIMA VEROSIMILITUD
27 20.70 3.03 20.02 0.04996 n= 32
28 20.40 3.02 19.72 0.05072 m= 27.55313
29 18.80 2.93 18.12 0.05519 Prom(Lnx) = 3.28181
30 17.60 2.87 16.92 0.05911 y= 0.03431
31 17.20 2.84 16.52 0.06054 Suma(1/(Xi - g)) = 1.27756
32 16.70 2.82 16.02 0.06243 Parámetro de Escala
μ− γ
α=
β
Parámetro de Forma
0 .5000876 +0 . 1648852 Y +0 . 0544274 Y 2
β=
Y
Parámetro de Posición: se calcula mediante la siguiente ecuación
n
∑ X1 ⋅( 1− β ) +
n⋅β
=0
i =1 ( i− γ ) ( μ− γ )
-17.55186 17.55186 0.000000
a= 1.82317
b= 14.73858 ###
g= 0.68221
 ESTIMACION DE PARAMETROS DE LA DISTRIBUCION LOG PEARSON TIPO III

Csy = 0.345
Xi (Observ)
m LnX Ln(Ln(X)) Yi - g 1/(Yi - g) METODO DE MOMENTOS
(mm.)
ln ( x ) −γ −[ ]
ln ( x ) −γ
1
2
52.20
41.80
3.9551
3.7329
1.3750
1.3172
3.9436
3.7214
0.25358
0.26872
f ( X )=
1
α⋅Γ ( β ) [ α
⋅e ] α

3 40.40 3.6988 1.3080 3.6873 0.27120 Parámetro de escala σ⋅C S

4 38.20 3.6428 1.2928 3.6313 0.27538 α=
2
5 32.70 3.4874 1.2491 3.4759 0.28770 Parámetro de forma 2
2

6 31.00 3.4340 1.2337 3.4225 0.29219

β=
( CS )
7 31.00 3.4340 1.2337 3.4225 0.29219 Parámetro de posición: depende del Coeficiente de asimetría Cs
8 31.00 3.4340 1.2337 3.4225 0.29219 ó γ = μ+ σ √ β
γ = μ−σ √ β
9 30.40 3.4144 1.2280 3.4029 0.29386 Donde :
10 30.30 3.4111 1.2270 3.3996 0.29415 f(X) = función de densidad.
11 30.20 3.4078 1.2261 3.3963 0.29443 a = Parámetro de escala.
12 29.20 3.3742 1.2161 3.3627 0.29738 b = Parámetro de forma.
13 28.30 3.3429 1.2068 3.3314 0.30018 X = variable hidrológica en estudio.
14 27.70 3.3214 1.2004 3.3099 0.30212 g = Parámetro de posición.
15 27.60 3.3178 1.1993 3.3063 0.30245 (b) = función gamma.
16 27.50 3.3142 1.1982 3.3027 0.30278 ESTIMACION DE PARAMETROS
17 26.60 3.2809 1.1881 3.2694 0.30587 - Para el método de Momentos
18 26.00 3.2581 1.1811 3.2466 0.30801 m= 3.28181
19 25.80 3.2504 1.1788 3.2389 0.30875 s= 0.26240
20 24.50 3.1987 1.1627 3.1872 0.31376 CS = 1.21968
21 24.30 3.1905 1.1602 3.1790 0.31457 a= 0.16002
22 24.20 3.1864 1.1589 3.1749 0.31498 b= 2.68886
23 23.60 3.1612 1.1510 3.1497 0.31749 g= 3.71209
24 23.20 3.1442 1.1455 3.1327 0.31922 METODO DE MAX. VEROSIMILITUD
25 21.80 3.0819 1.1255 3.0704 0.32569 n= 32
26 20.80 3.0350 1.1102 3.0235 0.33075 Prom(LNX) = 3.28181
27 20.70 3.0301 1.1086 3.0186 0.33128 Prom(Ln(LnX)) = 1.18532
28 20.40 3.0155 1.1038 3.0040 0.33289 y= 0.00308
29 18.80 2.9339 1.0763 2.9224 0.34219 Suma(1/(Yi - g))= 9.84558
30 17.60 2.8679 1.0536 2.8564 0.35009 Parámetro de escala
1 
 Ln ( x )  - g
n

31 17.20 2.8449 1.0455 2.8334 0.35293  i

a =  
n i =1

32 16.70 2.8154 1.0351 2.8039 0.35664 b

Parámetro de forma
0 .5000876 +0 . 1648852 Y +0 . 0544274 Y 2
β=
Y
Parámetro de Posición: se calcula mediante la siguiente ecuación
n
1 n(β)
∑ × ( 1− β ) + =0
i =1 ( LnX i −γ ) ( LnX i −γ )
-1590.36461 1590.36490 0.000290 2.90E-04
a= 0.02012
b= 162.53082
g= 0.01150
 RESUMEN DE PARAMETROS
Momentos y Max.Ver Momentos Momentos Momentos Momentos Momentos
m= 27.55313 my = 3.27874 my = 2.91703 a= 24.09856 a = 6.21999 a= 0.16002
s= 7.67598 sy = 0.27340 sy = 0.37377 b= 0.16708 b = 1.52296 b= 2.68886
a= 7.72931 g = 18.08034 g= 3.71209

Max.Ver Max.Ver Max.Ver Max.Ver Max.Ver

my = 3.19281 my = 5.10144 a= 24.04154 a= 1.82317 a= 0.02012
sy = 0.26240 sy = 0.04561 b= 0.18271 b= 14.73858 b= 162.53082
a= -137 g= 0.68221 g= 0.01150
 T 
YT = -Ln Ln 
  T - 1  n= 32 CS = 1.21968 Cs = 1.62064 Csy = 0.34499

2
2. 515517+ 0. 802853 w+0 . 010328 w
z=w−
1+1 . 432788 w+0 .189269 w2 + 0 . 001308 w3
1/ 2
  1 
w =  Ln 2  DISTRIBUCION
DISTRIBUCION DISTRIBUCION
DISTRIBUCION DISTRIBUCION DISTRIBUCION
 p  NORMAL
LOG-NORMAL DE 2
PARAMETROS
LOG-NORMAL DE 3
PARAMETROS
GUMBEL PEARSON TIPO III LOG-PEARSON TIPO III
1 serie hidrologica en solo se diferencia en los
P( x )= estudio solo se diferencia en los solo se diferencia en los parametros de c/ metodos
T parametros de c/ metodos parametros de c/ metodos solo se diferencia en los solo se diferencia en los
YT
T=
n+1
m
X T =μ+ z⋅σ X T =exp ( μ y + z⋅σ y ) X T =a+ ( exp ( μ y + z⋅σ y ) ) X T =α +
β ( ) parametros de c/ metodos

X T =γ + y⋅α
parametros de c/ metodos
X T =exp ( γ + y⋅α )
Xi XT (m3/seg) XT (m3/seg) XT (m3/seg) XT (m3/seg) XT (m3/seg) XT (m3/seg)
TR YT
m (Observ) Probab. W Z
(Años) Momentos y
(mm.) Momentos Max.Ver Momentos Max.Ver Momentos Max.Ver Momentos Max.Ver Momentos Max.Ver
Max.Ver
1 52.20 33.00 0.030 2.644 1.876 3.481 42.00 44.30 39.90 45.00 42.10 44.90 43.10 45.80 41.60 44.00 43.80
2 41.80 16.50 0.061 2.368 1.550 2.772 39.40 40.50 36.60 40.70 39.40 40.70 39.20 41.00 38.60 45.30 39.90
3 40.40 11.00 0.091 2.190 1.335 2.351 37.80 38.20 34.60 38.20 37.70 38.20 36.90 38.20 36.80 46.30 37.70
4 38.20 8.25 0.121 2.054 1.169 2.046 36.50 36.50 33.10 36.30 36.40 36.30 35.20 36.20 35.40 47.20 36.00
5 32.70 6.60 0.152 1.943 1.030 1.806 35.50 35.20 31.90 34.90 35.30 34.90 33.90 34.50 34.20 48.10 34.70
6 31.00 5.50 0.182 1.846 0.908 1.606 34.50 34.00 30.90 33.70 34.30 33.70 32.80 33.20 33.20 48.90 33.50
7 31.00 4.71 0.212 1.761 0.798 1.433 33.70 33.00 30.00 32.60 33.50 32.70 31.90 32.10 32.40 49.70 32.60
8 31.00 4.13 0.242 1.684 0.699 1.283 32.90 32.10 29.30 31.70 32.70 31.80 31.10 31.10 31.60 50.50 31.70
9 30.40 3.67 0.272 1.613 0.605 1.145 32.20 31.30 28.50 30.90 32.00 31.00 30.30 30.20 30.90 51.30 30.90
10 30.30 3.30 0.303 1.545 0.515 1.019 31.50 30.60 27.90 30.10 31.30 30.20 29.60 29.40 30.20 52.10 30.20
11 30.20 3.00 0.333 1.482 0.430 0.903 30.90 29.90 27.30 29.40 30.60 29.50 29.00 28.70 29.60 53.00 29.50
12 29.20 2.75 0.364 1.422 0.348 0.794 30.20 29.20 26.70 28.80 30.00 28.90 28.40 28.00 29.00 53.80 28.90
13 28.30 2.54 0.394 1.365 0.269 0.692 29.60 28.60 26.10 28.20 29.40 28.20 27.80 27.40 28.40 54.70 28.30
14 27.70 2.36 0.424 1.310 0.192 0.596 29.00 28.00 25.60 27.60 28.80 27.70 27.30 26.80 27.90 55.60 27.80
15 27.60 2.20 0.455 1.256 0.114 0.501 28.40 27.40 25.10 27.00 28.20 27.10 26.80 26.20 27.30 56.50 27.20
16 27.50 2.06 0.485 1.202 0.036 0.409 27.80 26.80 24.60 26.50 27.70 26.50 26.30 25.70 26.80 57.50 26.70
17 26.60 1.94 0.515 1.151 -0.039 0.322 27.30 26.30 24.10 25.90 27.10 26.00 25.80 25.20 26.20 58.50 26.20
18 26.00 1.83 0.546 1.099 -0.116 0.235 26.70 25.70 23.60 25.40 26.50 25.50 25.30 24.70 25.70 59.60 25.60
19 25.80 1.74 0.575 1.053 -0.188 0.157 26.10 25.20 23.20 25.00 26.00 25.00 24.90 24.30 25.20 60.70 25.20
20 24.50 1.65 0.606 1.001 -0.268 0.071 25.50 24.70 22.70 24.50 25.40 24.50 24.40 23.80 24.70 62.00 24.70
21 24.30 1.57 0.637 0.950 -0.348 -0.013 24.90 24.10 22.20 24.00 24.80 24.00 24.00 23.40 24.20 63.30 24.20
22 24.20 1.50 0.667 0.901 -0.428 -0.094 24.30 23.60 21.80 23.50 24.20 23.50 23.50 23.00 23.70 64.80 23.70
23 23.60 1.43 0.699 0.846 -0.518 -0.184 23.60 23.00 21.30 23.00 23.60 23.00 23.00 22.50 23.10 66.50 23.20
24 23.20 1.38 0.725 0.803 -0.591 -0.254 23.00 22.60 20.90 22.60 23.00 22.60 22.60 22.20 22.60 67.90 22.70
25 21.80 1.32 0.758 0.745 -0.690 -0.349 22.30 22.00 20.30 22.00 22.30 22.00 22.10 21.80 22.00 70.10 22.20
26 20.80 1.27 0.787 0.691 -0.786 -0.437 21.50 21.40 19.80 21.50 21.60 21.50 21.60 21.40 21.40 72.30 21.60
27 20.70 1.22 0.820 0.631 -0.898 -0.538 20.70 20.80 19.20 20.90 20.80 20.90 21.10 21.00 20.70 75.10 21.00
28 20.40 1.18 0.847 0.575 -1.004 -0.631 19.80 20.20 18.70 20.40 20.00 20.30 20.60 20.60 20.10 78.10 20.50
29 18.80 1.14 0.877 0.512 -1.131 -0.741 18.90 19.50 18.10 19.80 19.10 19.70 20.00 20.20 19.40 81.90 19.80
30 17.60 1.10 0.909 0.437 -1.289 -0.875 17.70 18.70 17.40 19.10 18.00 18.90 19.30 19.80 18.40 87.50 19.00
31 17.20 1.06 0.943 0.341 -1.505 -1.055 16.00 17.60 16.40 18.30 16.50 17.80 18.30 19.30 17.10 96.70 17.90
32 16.70 1.03 0.971 0.243 -1.751 -1.263 14.10 16.40 15.40 17.30 14.80 16.50 17.10 18.80 15.60 110.80 16.70
ESUMEN DE PARAMETROS

NOTA: Poner la siguiente CONDICION

si el párametro a es positivo :
PRUEBA.CHI.INV((1-Pacumulada);2*b)
si el párametro a es negativo:
PRUEBA.CHI.INV((Pacumulada);2*b)

EN EL PROGRAMA NO DEBE DE FIGURAR ESTAS COLUMNAS

para realizar la
PRUEBA.CHI.INV la
PARA LA DISTRIBUCION PEARSON TIPO III PARA LA DISTRIBUCION LOG-PEARSON TIPO III
probabilidad acumulada
debemos de invertirla
Momentos Max.Ver Momentos Max.Ver
Probab.
X2 Y X2 Y X2 Y X2 Y
8.925 4.463 44.87 22.434 0.907 0.454 374.49 187.245 0.970
7.384 3.692 41.63 20.815 1.256 0.628 365.41 182.706 0.939
6.469 3.234 39.59 19.794 1.534 0.767 359.53 179.766 0.909
5.810 2.905 38.05 19.025 1.779 0.890 355.02 177.509 0.879
5.294 2.647 36.80 18.398 2.005 1.002 351.27 175.636 0.848
4.867 2.433 35.72 17.861 2.218 1.109 348.02 174.010 0.818
4.500 2.250 34.77 17.383 2.425 1.213 345.09 172.546 0.788
4.185 2.093 33.92 16.961 2.623 1.311 342.47 171.236 0.758
3.900 1.950 33.13 16.566 2.821 1.411 339.99 169.997 0.728
3.640 1.820 32.39 16.195 3.020 1.510 337.64 168.822 0.697
3.405 1.702 31.70 15.848 3.216 1.608 335.43 167.713 0.667
3.187 1.594 31.04 15.519 3.414 1.707 333.30 166.648 0.636
2.987 1.493 30.41 15.206 3.613 1.807 331.25 165.625 0.606
2.799 1.399 29.81 14.903 3.816 1.908 329.26 164.628 0.576
2.617 1.308 29.20 14.601 4.028 2.014 327.25 163.625 0.545
2.444 1.222 28.61 14.306 4.246 2.123 325.26 162.632 0.515
2.285 1.142 28.05 14.023 4.465 2.233 323.35 161.674 0.485
2.127 1.064 27.47 13.734 4.700 2.350 321.37 160.686 0.454
1.989 0.994 26.94 13.472 4.924 2.462 319.56 159.780 0.425
1.841 0.920 26.36 13.181 5.183 2.592 317.53 158.765 0.394
1.700 0.850 25.79 12.893 5.454 2.727 315.49 157.747 0.363
1.568 0.784 25.22 12.611 5.730 2.865 313.49 156.744 0.333
1.427 0.713 24.59 12.295 6.057 3.029 311.21 155.606 0.301
1.319 0.659 24.09 12.043 6.331 3.165 309.38 154.688 0.275
1.181 0.590 23.41 11.704 6.719 3.359 306.87 153.435 0.242
1.057 0.529 22.76 11.380 7.110 3.555 304.45 152.224 0.213
0.924 0.462 22.01 11.006 7.590 3.795 301.61 150.805 0.180
0.808 0.404 21.31 10.657 8.068 4.034 298.91 149.457 0.153
0.683 0.342 20.49 10.243 8.674 4.337 295.66 147.830 0.123
0.544 0.272 19.45 9.727 9.494 4.747 291.51 145.756 0.091
0.385 0.192 18.04 9.021 10.748 5.374 285.65 142.827 0.057
0.240 0.120 16.39 8.193 12.449 6.225 278.47 139.235 0.029
 ANALISIS GRAFICO DE LAS DISTRIBUCIONES TEORICAS CON FRECUENCIA EMPIRICA

Normal Lognormal 2 XT Lognormal 3 XT Gumbel XT Pearson Tipo III XT Log-Pearson Tipo III XT
TR Xi (Observ)
(Años) (mm.) NORMAL LOGN2PMM LOGN2PMMV LOGN3PMM LOGN3PMMV GUMBELMM GUMBELMMV PEARSONTIPO3MM PEARSONTIPO3MMV LOGPEARSONTIPO3MM LOGPEARSONTIPO3MMV

XT Momentos Máxima Verosimilitud Momentos Máxima Verosimilitud Momentos Máxima Verosimilitud Momentos Máxima Verosimilitud Momentos Máxima Verosimilitud
33.00 52.20 42.00 44.30 39.90 45.00 42.10 44.90 43.10 45.80 41.60 44.00 43.80
16.50 41.80 39.40 40.50 36.60 40.70 39.40 40.70 39.20 41.00 38.60 45.30 39.90
11.00 40.40 37.80 38.20 34.60 38.20 37.70 38.20 36.90 38.20 36.80 46.30 37.70
### 8.25 38.20 36.50 36.50 33.10 36.30 36.40 36.30 35.20 36.20 35.40 47.20 36.00
6.60 32.70 35.50 35.20 31.90 34.90 35.30 34.90 33.90 34.50 34.20 48.10 34.70
5.50 31.00 34.50 34.00 30.90 33.70 34.30 33.70 32.80 33.20 33.20 48.90 33.50
4.71 31.00 33.70 33.00 30.00 32.60 33.50 32.70 31.90 32.10 32.40 49.70 32.60
4.13 31.00 32.90 32.10 29.30 31.70 32.70 31.80 31.10 31.10 31.60 50.50 31.70
3.67 30.40 32.20 31.30 28.50 30.90 32.00 31.00 30.30 30.20 30.90 51.30 30.90
3.30 30.30 31.50 30.60 27.90 30.10 31.30 30.20 29.60 29.40 30.20 52.10 30.20
3.00 30.20 30.90 29.90 27.30 29.40 30.60 29.50 29.00 28.70 29.60 53.00 29.50
2.75 29.20 30.20 29.20 26.70 28.80 30.00 28.90 28.40 28.00 29.00 53.80 28.90
2.54 28.30 29.60 28.60 26.10 28.20 29.40 28.20 27.80 27.40 28.40 54.70 28.30
2.36 27.70 29.00 28.00 25.60 27.60 28.80 27.70 27.30 26.80 27.90 55.60 27.80
2.20 27.60 28.40 27.40 25.10 27.00 28.20 27.10 26.80 26.20 27.30 56.50 27.20
2.06 27.50 27.80 26.80 24.60 26.50 27.70 26.50 26.30 25.70 26.80 57.50 26.70
1.94 26.60 27.30 26.30 24.10 25.90 27.10 26.00 25.80 25.20 26.20 58.50 26.20
1.83 26.00 26.70 25.70 23.60 25.40 26.50 25.50 25.30 24.70 25.70 59.60 25.60
1.74 25.80 26.10 25.20 23.20 25.00 26.00 25.00 24.90 24.30 25.20 60.70 25.20
1.65 24.50 25.50 24.70 22.70 24.50 25.40 24.50 24.40 23.80 24.70 62.00 24.70
1.57 24.30 24.90 24.10 22.20 24.00 24.80 24.00 24.00 23.40 24.20 63.30 24.20
1.50 24.20 24.30 23.60 21.80 23.50 24.20 23.50 23.50 23.00 23.70 64.80 23.70
1.43 23.60 23.60 23.00 21.30 23.00 23.60 23.00 23.00 22.50 23.10 66.50 23.20
1.38 23.20 23.00 22.60 20.90 22.60 23.00 22.60 22.60 22.20 22.60 67.90 22.70
1.32 21.80 22.30 22.00 20.30 22.00 22.30 22.00 22.10 21.80 22.00 70.10 22.20
1.27 20.80 21.50 21.40 19.80 21.50 21.60 21.50 21.60 21.40 21.40 72.30 21.60
1.22 20.70 20.70 20.80 19.20 20.90 20.80 20.90 21.10 21.00 20.70 75.10 21.00
1.18 20.40 19.80 20.20 18.70 20.40 20.00 20.30 20.60 20.60 20.10 78.10 20.50
1.14 18.80 18.90 19.50 18.10 19.80 19.10 19.70 20.00 20.20 19.40 81.90 19.80
1.10 17.60 17.70 18.70 17.40 19.10 18.00 18.90 19.30 19.80 18.40 87.50 19.00
1.06 17.20 16.00 17.60 16.40 18.30 16.50 17.80 18.30 19.30 17.10 96.70 17.90
1.03 16.70 14.10 16.40 15.40 17.30 14.80 16.50 17.10 18.80 15.60 110.80 16.70
 PRUEBA DE AJUSTE : ERROR CUADRATICO MINIMO

SUMA 172.52 98.09 344.47 87.33 159.32 86.85 131.27 98.06 158.33 53825.60 106.99
Error cuadrático mínimo 13.13 9.90 18.56 9.35 12.62 9.32 11.46 9.90 12.58 232.003 10.34

Two Parameter Log-Normal Three Parameter Log-Normal Gumbel Pearson III Log-Pearson III
Período de Datos Obs. Normal
Momentos Máx. Verosimiltud Momentos Máx. Verosimiltud Momentos Máx. Verosimiltud Momentos Máx. Verosimiltud Momentos Máx. Verosimiltud
Retorno TR Xo
(años) (mm) Xe Xe Xe Xe Xe Xe Xe Xe Xe Xe Xe
(Xe - Xo)2 (Xe - Xo)5 (Xe - Xo)6 (Xe - Xo)7 (Xe - Xo)8 (Xe - Xo)3 (Xe - Xo)4 (Xe - Xo)9 (Xe - Xo)10 (Xe - Xo)11 (Xe - Xo)12
(
mm) (
mm) (
mm) (
mm) (
mm) (
mm) (
mm) (
mm) (
mm) (
mm) (
mm)

33.00 52.20 42.00 104.04 44.30 62.41 39.90 151.29 45.00 51.84 42.10 102.01 44.90 53.29 43.10 82.81 45.80 40.96 41.60 112.36 44.00 67.24 43.80 70.56
16.50 41.80 39.40 5.76 40.50 1.69 36.60 27.04 40.70 1.21 39.40 5.76 40.70 1.21 39.20 6.76 41.00 0.64 38.60 10.24 45.30 12.25 39.90 3.61
11.00 40.40 37.80 6.76 38.20 4.84 34.60 33.64 38.20 4.84 37.70 7.29 38.20 4.84 36.90 12.25 38.20 4.84 36.80 12.96 46.30 34.81 37.70 7.29
8.25 38.20 36.50 2.89 36.50 2.89 33.10 26.01 36.30 3.61 36.40 3.24 36.30 3.61 35.20 9.00 36.20 4.00 35.40 7.84 47.20 81.00 36.00 4.84
6.60 32.70 35.50 7.84 35.20 6.25 31.90 0.64 34.90 4.84 35.30 6.76 34.90 4.84 33.90 1.44 34.50 3.24 34.20 2.25 48.10 237.16 34.70 4.00
5.50 31.00 34.50 12.25 34.00 9.00 30.90 0.01 33.70 7.29 34.30 10.89 33.70 7.29 32.80 3.24 33.20 4.84 33.20 4.84 48.90 320.41 33.50 6.25
4.71 31.00 33.70 7.29 33.00 4.00 30.00 1.00 32.60 2.56 33.50 6.25 32.70 2.89 31.90 0.81 32.10 1.21 32.40 1.96 49.70 349.69 32.60 2.56
4.13 31.00 32.90 3.61 32.10 1.21 29.30 2.89 31.70 0.49 32.70 2.89 31.80 0.64 31.10 0.01 31.10 0.01 31.60 0.36 50.50 380.25 31.70 0.49
3.67 30.40 32.20 3.24 31.30 0.81 28.50 3.61 30.90 0.25 32.00 2.56 31.00 0.36 30.30 0.01 30.20 0.04 30.90 0.25 51.30 436.81 30.90 0.25
3.30 30.30 31.50 1.44 30.60 0.09 27.90 5.76 30.10 0.04 31.30 1.00 30.20 0.01 29.60 0.49 29.40 0.81 30.20 0.01 52.10 475.24 30.20 0.01
3.00 30.20 30.90 0.49 29.90 0.09 27.30 8.41 29.40 0.64 30.60 0.16 29.50 0.49 29.00 1.44 28.70 2.25 29.60 0.36 53.00 519.84 29.50 0.49
2.75 29.20 30.20 1.00 29.20 0.00 26.70 6.25 28.80 0.16 30.00 0.64 28.90 0.09 28.40 0.64 28.00 1.44 29.00 0.04 53.80 605.16 28.90 0.09
2.54 28.30 29.60 1.69 28.60 0.09 26.10 4.84 28.20 0.01 29.40 1.21 28.20 0.01 27.80 0.25 27.40 0.81 28.40 0.01 54.70 696.96 28.30 0.00
2.36 27.70 29.00 1.69 28.00 0.09 25.60 4.41 27.60 0.01 28.80 1.21 27.70 0.00 27.30 0.16 26.80 0.81 27.90 0.04 55.60 778.41 27.80 0.01
2.20 27.60 28.40 0.64 27.40 0.04 25.10 6.25 27.00 0.36 28.20 0.36 27.10 0.25 26.80 0.64 26.20 1.96 27.30 0.09 56.50 835.21 27.20 0.16
2.06 27.50 27.80 0.09 26.80 0.49 24.60 8.41 26.50 1.00 27.70 0.04 26.50 1.00 26.30 1.44 25.70 3.24 26.80 0.49 57.50 900.00 26.70 0.64
1.94 26.60 27.30 0.49 26.30 0.09 24.10 6.25 25.90 0.49 27.10 0.25 26.00 0.36 25.80 0.64 25.20 1.96 26.20 0.16 58.50 1017.61 26.20 0.16
1.83 26.00 26.70 0.49 25.70 0.09 23.60 5.76 25.40 0.36 26.50 0.25 25.50 0.25 25.30 0.49 24.70 1.69 25.70 0.09 59.60 1128.96 25.60 0.16
1.74 25.80 26.10 0.09 25.20 0.36 23.20 6.76 25.00 0.64 26.00 0.04 25.00 0.64 24.90 0.81 24.30 2.25 25.20 0.36 60.70 1218.01 25.20 0.36
1.65 24.50 25.50 1.00 24.70 0.04 22.70 3.24 24.50 0.00 25.40 0.81 24.50 0.00 24.40 0.01 23.80 0.49 24.70 0.04 62.00 1406.25 24.70 0.04
1.57 24.30 24.90 0.36 24.10 0.04 22.20 4.41 24.00 0.09 24.80 0.25 24.00 0.09 24.00 0.09 23.40 0.81 24.20 0.01 63.30 1521.00 24.20 0.01
1.50 24.20 24.30 0.01 23.60 0.36 21.80 5.76 23.50 0.49 24.20 0.00 23.50 0.49 23.50 0.49 23.00 1.44 23.70 0.25 64.80 1648.36 23.70 0.25
1.43 23.60 23.60 0.00 23.00 0.36 21.30 5.29 23.00 0.36 23.60 0.00 23.00 0.36 23.00 0.36 22.50 1.21 23.10 0.25 66.50 1840.41 23.20 0.16
1.38 23.20 23.00 0.04 22.60 0.36 20.90 5.29 22.60 0.36 23.00 0.04 22.60 0.36 22.60 0.36 22.20 1.00 22.60 0.36 67.90 1998.09 22.70 0.25
1.32 21.80 22.30 0.25 22.00 0.04 20.30 2.25 22.00 0.04 22.30 0.25 22.00 0.04 22.10 0.09 21.80 0.00 22.00 0.04 70.10 2332.89 22.20 0.16
1.27 20.80 21.50 0.49 21.40 0.36 19.80 1.00 21.50 0.49 21.60 0.64 21.50 0.49 21.60 0.64 21.40 0.36 21.40 0.36 72.30 2652.25 21.60 0.64
1.22 20.70 20.70 0.00 20.80 0.01 19.20 2.25 20.90 0.04 20.80 0.01 20.90 0.04 21.10 0.16 21.00 0.09 20.70 0.00 75.10 2959.36 21.00 0.09
1.18 20.40 19.80 0.36 20.20 0.04 18.70 2.89 20.40 0.00 20.00 0.16 20.30 0.01 20.60 0.04 20.60 0.04 20.10 0.09 78.10 3329.29 20.50 0.01
1.14 18.80 18.90 0.01 19.50 0.49 18.10 0.49 19.80 1.00 19.10 0.09 19.70 0.81 20.00 1.44 20.20 1.96 19.40 0.36 81.90 3981.61 19.80 1.00
1.10 17.60 17.70 0.01 18.70 1.21 17.40 0.04 19.10 2.25 18.00 0.16 18.90 1.69 19.30 2.89 19.80 4.84 18.40 0.64 87.50 4886.01 19.00 1.96
1.06 17.20 16.00 1.44 17.60 0.16 16.40 0.64 18.30 1.21 16.50 0.49 17.80 0.36 18.30 1.21 19.30 4.41 17.10 0.01 96.70 6320.25 17.90 0.49
1.03 16.70 14.10 6.76 16.40 0.09 15.40 1.69 17.30 0.36 14.80 3.61 16.50 0.04 17.10 0.16 18.80 4.41 15.60 1.21 110.80 8854.81 16.70 0.00
 PRUEBA DE AJUSTE DE CHI-CUADRADO
DISTRIBUCION NORMAL

DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(Proba Momentos y Max.Ver

LC = m + Z s
bilidad Acumulada) m= 27.5531
s= 7.6760

Intervalo Intervalo
Pi Pacumulada Z Ni Ni2
No LCI LCS
1 0.16667 0.16667 -0.96741 0.00 20.10 9 81
2 0.16667 0.33334 -0.43071 20.10 24.20 10 100
3 0.16667 0.50001 0.00003 24.20 27.60 11 121
4 0.16667 0.66668 0.43076 27.60 30.90 11 121
5 0.16667 0.83335 0.96749 30.90 35.00 7 49
6 0.16667 0.99999 4.26489 35.00 60.30 6 36
6 54 508 ###

Chi-cuadrado calculado Chi-cuadrado tabular Se Acepta

X2C = 2.444 X2t = 7.815 Xc < Xt

DISTRIBUCION LOG NORMAL DE 2 PARAMETROS DISTRIBUCION LOG NORMAL DE 2 PARAMETROS

Momentos Max.Ver
my = 3.27874 my = 3.19281
sy = 0.27340 sy = 0.2624

DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(Proba
Intervalo Intervalo DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(Probabil
Intervalo Intervalo
Pi Pacumulada Z = exp (my + Z sy) Ni Ni2 Pi Pacumulada LCZ= exp (my LC
+ Z sy) Ni Ni2
bilidad
No Acumulada) LC LCI LCS idad Acumulada)
No LC
I S

1 0.16667 0.16667 -0.96741 0.00 20.40 6 36 1 0.16667 0.16667 -0.96741 0.00 18.90 5 25
2 0.16667 0.33334 -0.43071 20.40 23.60 2 4 2 0.16667 0.33334 -0.43071 18.90 21.80 1 1
3 0.16667 0.50001 0.00003 23.60 26.50 6 36 3 0.16667 0.50001 0.00003 21.80 24.40 7 49
4 0.16667 0.66668 0.43076 26.50 29.90 4 16 4 0.16667 0.66668 0.43076 24.40 27.30 7 49
5 0.16667 0.83335 0.96749 29.90 34.60 8 64 5 0.16667 0.83335 0.96749 27.30 31.40 7 49
6 0.16667 0.99999 4.26489 34.60 85.20 5 25 6 0.16667 0.99999 4.26489 31.40 74.60 4 16
6 31 181 6 31 189

Chi-cuadrado calculado Chi-cuadrado tabular Se Acepta Chi-cuadrado calculado Chi-cuadrado tabular Se Acepta
X2C = 4.032 X2t = 7.815 Xc < Xt X2 C = 5.581 X2t = 7.815 Xc < Xt
DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(Probabi
DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(Proba lidad Acumulada) + Z sy)
LCNORMAL
DISTRIBUCION LOG
bilidad Acumulada)
= a + exp
DE(my + Z sy)
3 PARAMETROS DISTRIBUCION LOGLC = a + exp
NORMAL DE (my
3 PARAMETROS
Momentos Max.Ver
my = 2.9170 my = 5.1014
sy = 0.3738 sy = 0.0456
a= 7.7293 a= -136.87

Intervalo Intervalo Intervalo Intervalo

Pi Pacumulada Z Ni Ni2 Pi Pacumulada Z Ni Ni2
No LCI LCS No LCI LCS
1 0.16667 0.16667 -0.96741 0.00 20.60 6 36 1 0.16667 0.16667 -0.96741 0 20.3 6 36
2 0.16667 0.33334 -0.43071 20.60 23.50 3 9 2 0.16667 0.33334 -0.43071 20.30 24.2 2 4
3 0.16667 0.50001 0.00003 23.50 26.20 6 36 3 0.16667 0.50001 0.00003 24.20 27.4 6 36
4 0.16667 0.66668 0.43076 26.20 29.40 7 49 4 0.16667 0.66668 0.43076 27.40 30.6 6 36
5 0.16667 0.83335 0.96749 29.40 34.30 4 16 5 0.16667 0.83335 0.96749 30.60 34.8 6 36
6 0.16667 0.99999 4.26489 34.30 98.80 5 25 6 0.16667 0.99999 4.26489 34.80 62.7 5 25
6 31 171 6 31 173

Chi-cuadrado calculado Chi-cuadrado tabular Se Acepta Chi-cuadrado calculado Chi-cuadrado tabular Se Acepta
X2C = 2.097 X2t = 5.991 Xc < Xt X2 C = 2.484 X2t = 5.991 Xc < Xt
(-LN(-LN(Probabilidad Acumulada))) LC = (a+(Ym /b)
(-LN(-LN(Probabilidad Acumulada)))
DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL
Momentos Max.Ver
LC = (a+(Ym /b)
a= 24.0986 a= 24.0415
b= 0.1671 b= 0.1827

Intervalo Intervalo Intervalo Intervalo

Pi Pacumulada Ym Ni Ni2 Pi Pacumulada Ym Ni Ni2
No LCI LCS No LCI LCS
1 0.16667 0.16667 -0.58319 0.00 20.60 6 36 1 0.16667 0.16667 -0.58319 0.00 20.80 5 25
2 0.16667 0.33334 -0.09403 20.60 23.50 2 4 2 0.16667 0.33334 -0.09403 20.80 23.50 2 4
3 0.16667 0.50001 0.36654 23.50 26.30 6 36 3 0.16667 0.50001 0.36654 23.50 26.00 7 49
4 0.16667 0.66668 0.90277 26.30 29.50 5 25 4 0.16667 0.66668 0.90277 26.00 29.00 6 36
NOTA: Poner la siguiente CONDICION NOTA: Poner la siguiente CONDICION
5 párametro
si el 0.16667
a es 0.83335
positivo : 1.70209 29.50 34.30 7 49 si el párametro
5 a 0.16667
es positivo0.83335
: 1.70209 29.00 33.40 7 49
6 PRUEBA.CHI.INV((1-P
0.16667 0.99999 );2*b)
acumulada11.51292 34.30 93.00 5 25 PRUEBA.CHI.INV((1-P
6 0.16667 acumulada);2*b) 11.51292
0.99999 33.40 87.10 4 16
6 párametro a es negativo:
si el 31 175 si el párametro
6 a es negativo: 31 179
PRUEBA.CHI.INV((Pacumulada);2*b) LC = (g+((X2 /2)*a PRUEBA.CHI.INV((Pacumulada);2*b) LC = (g+((X2 /2)*a

Chi-cuadrado calculado Chi-cuadrado tabular Se Acepta Chi-cuadrado calculado Chi-cuadrado tabular Se Acepta
X2C = 2.871 X2t = 7.815 Xc < Xt X2 C = 3.645 X2t = 7.815 Xc < Xt

DISTRIBUCION PEARSON TIPO III DISTRIBUCION PEARSON TIPO III

Momentos Max.Ver
a = 6.2200 a= 1.8232
b = 1.5230 b= 14.7386
g = 18.0803 g= 0.6822

Intervalo Intervalo Intervalo Intervalo

Pi Pacumulada X2 Ni Ni2 Pi Pacumulada X2 Ni Ni2
No LCI LCS No LCI LCS
1 0.16667 0.16667 0.86722 0.00 20.80 6 36 1 0.16667 0.16667 21.67662 0.00 20.40 5 25
2 0.16667 0.33334 1.56803 20.80 23.00 3 9 2 0.16667 0.33334 25.22234 20.40 23.70 1 1
3 0.16667 0.50001 2.36603 23.00 25.40 5 25 3 0.16667 0.50001 28.33632 23.70 26.50 7 49
4 0.16667 0.66668 3.40481 25.40 LC = 28.70
EXP(g+(X2 /2)*a)
8 64 4 0.16667 0.66668 31.69721 26.50 LC = EXP(g+(X
29.60
2
/2)*a)
6 36
5 0.16667 0.83335 5.07130 28.70 33.90 4 16 5 0.16667 0.83335 36.24095 29.60 33.70 7 49
6 0.16667 0.99999 25.90175 33.90 98.60 5 25 6 0.16667 0.99999 73.47489 33.70 67.70 5 25
6 31 175 6 31 185
 LC = EXP(g+(X2 /2)*a) LC = EXP(g+(X2 /2)*a)

NOTA: Poner la siguiente CONDICION NOTA: Poner la siguiente CONDICION

Chi-cuadrado calculado Chi-cuadrado tabular Se Acepta Chi-cuadrado calculado Chi-cuadrado tabular Se Acepta
si el párametro a es positivo :
si el párametro a es positivo
X2 = : 2.871 X2t = 5.991 X2);2*b)
= X2t =
Xc < Xt PRUEBA.CHI.INV((1-Pacumulada 4.806 5.991 Xc < Xt
PRUEBA.CHI.INV((1-PC acumulada);2*b) C

si el párametro a es negativo:
si el párametro a es negativo:
DISTRIBUCION LOG PEARSON TIPO III PRUEBA.CHI.INV((Pacumulada);2*b)
DISTRIBUCION LOG PEARSON TIPO III
PRUEBA.CHI.INV((Pacumulada);2*b)
Momentos Max.Ver
a= 0.1600 a= 0.02012
b= 2.6889 b= 162.53082
g= 3.7121 g= 0.01150

Intervalo Intervalo Intervalo Intervalo

Pi Pacumulada X2 Ni Ni2 Pi Pacumulada X2 Ni Ni2
No LCI LCS No LCI LCS
1 0.16667 0.16667 7.81603 0.00 76.50 6 36 1 0.16667 0.16667 300.31876 0.00 20.80 5 25
2 0.16667 0.33334 5.73042 76.50 64.80 3 9 2 0.16667 0.33334 313.4891 20.80 23.70 1 1
3 0.16667 0.50001 4.35139 64.80 58.00 8 64 3 0.16667 0.50001 324.3342 23.70 26.40 5 25
4 0.16667 0.66668 3.21629 58.00 53.00 6 36 4 0.16667 0.66668 335.4268 26.40 29.50 8 64
5 0.16667 0.83335 2.11264 53.00 48.50 4 16 5 0.16667 0.83335 349.5981 29.50 34.10 8 64
6 0.16667 0.99999 0.03248 48.50 41.00 4 16 6 0.16667 0.99999 445.3853 34.10 89.30 4 16
6 31 177 6 31 195

Chi-cuadrado calculado Chi-cuadrado tabular Se Acepta Chi-cuadrado calculado Chi-cuadrado tabular Se Acepta
X2C = 3.258 X2t = 5.991 Xc < Xt X2 C = 6.742 X2t = 8.991 Xc < Xt
 E
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PRUEBA DE AJUSTE : SMIRNOV - KOLMOGOROV A
ó
( i
)
n
N
O
P
DISTRIBUCION NORMAL DISTRIBUCION LOG-NORMAL DE 2 PARAMETROS DISTRIBUCION LOG-NORMAL DE 3 PARAMETROS DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL DISTRIBUCION PEARSON TIPO III e
a
rD
sE
M
o
nB
Xi (Observ) Z F(x) I F(x) - P(x) I Z F(x) I F(x) - P(x) I Z F(x) I F(x) - P(x) I Z F(x) I F(x) - P(x) I Z F(x) I F(x) - P(x) I F(x) I F(x) - P(x) I P(x) I F(x) - P(x) I P(x) I F(x) - P(x) I P(x) I F(x) - P(x) I
m P(x) m
(m3/S) eE
Momentos y Max. Ver Momentos Max.Ver Momentos Max.Ver Momentos Max.Ver Momentos Max.Ver
nT
1 52.20 0.96970 3.21091 0.99914 0.02944 2.47382 0.99320 0.02350 2.90500 0.99793 0.02823 2.34850 0.99054 0.02084 3.08470 0.99876 2.11500 0.99090 0.02120 0.99419 0.02449 0.98812 0.01842 0.99836 0.02866
### ti
2 41.80 0.93939 1.85603 0.96851 0.02912 1.66114 0.95185 0.01246 2.05826 0.98037 0.04098 1.63579 0.94924 0.00985 1.84427 0.96766 0.90488 0.94938 0.00999 0.96177 0.02238 0.94561 0.00622 0.97127 0.03188
### opD
so
3 40.40 0.90909 1.67365 0.95310 0.04401 1.53654 0.93791 0.02882 1.92843 0.97331 0.06422 1.52353 0.93628 0.02719 1.67180 0.95292 0.76271 0.93647 0.02738 0.95090 0.04181 0.93353 0.02444 0.95971 0.05062
### E
4 38.20 0.87879 1.38704 0.91725 0.03846 1.33173 0.90844 0.02965 1.71504 0.95705 0.07826 1.33701 0.90931 0.03052 1.39801 0.91893 0.51922 0.90956 0.03077 0.92750 0.04871 0.90912 0.03033 0.93327 0.05448
###
I
5 32.70 0.84848 0.67052 0.74884 0.09964 0.76311 0.77729 0.07119 1.12258 0.86897 0.02049 0.80443 0.78937 0.05911 0.69817 0.75754 0.15031 0.78851 0.05997 0.81418 0.03430 0.80494 0.04354 0.79948 0.04900
### IA
6 31.00 0.81818 0.44905 0.67353 0.14465 0.56784 0.71513 0.10305 0.91912 0.82081 0.00263 0.61579 0.73115 0.08703 0.47726 0.68364 0.34092 0.72931 0.08887 0.75544 0.06274 0.75472 0.06346 0.73256 0.08562
### I
7 31.00 0.78788 0.44905 0.67353 0.11435 0.56784 0.71513 0.07275 0.91912 0.82081 0.03293 0.61579 0.73115 0.05673 0.47726 0.68364 0.31062 0.72931 0.05857 0.75544 0.03244 0.75472 0.03316 0.73256 0.05532
### P
8 31.00 0.75758 0.44905 0.67353 0.08405 0.56784 0.71513 0.04245 0.91912 0.82081 0.06323 0.61579 0.73115 0.02643 0.47726 0.68364 0.28032 0.72931 0.02827 0.75544 0.00214 0.75472 0.00286 0.73256 0.02502
### A
9 30.40 0.72727 0.37088 0.64480 0.08247 0.49635 0.69041 0.03686 0.84464 0.80074 0.07347 0.54590 0.70765 0.01962 0.39875 0.65515 0.32852 0.70543 0.02184 0.73129 0.00402 0.73433 0.00706 0.70584 0.02143
### R
10 30.30 0.69697 0.35785 0.63992 0.05705 0.48430 0.68615 0.01082 0.83208 0.79723 0.10026 0.53408 0.70358 0.00661 0.38564 0.65030 0.31133 0.70130 0.00433 0.72708 0.03011 0.73078 0.03381 0.70124 0.00427
###
11 30.20 0.66667 0.34483 0.63502 0.03165 0.47221 0.68184 0.01517 0.81948 0.79367 0.12700 0.52220 0.69946 0.03279 0.37252 0.64541 0.29415 0.69712 0.03045 0.72282 0.05615 0.72720 0.06053 0.69659 0.02992
E
"
###
12 29.20 0.63636 0.21455 0.58484 0.05152 0.34904 0.63661 0.00025 0.69115 0.75535 0.11899 0.40040 0.65576 0.01940 0.24090 0.59513 0.39546 0.65285 0.01649 0.67729 0.04093 0.68889 0.05253 0.64783 0.01147
###
C
Y
13 28.30 0.60606 0.09730 0.53852 0.06754 0.23453 0.59265 0.01341 0.57184 0.71649 0.11043 0.28584 0.61253 0.00647 0.12176 0.54823 0.48430 0.60920 0.00314 0.63172 0.02566 0.65041 0.04435 0.60068 0.00538
### E
"
14 27.70 0.57576 0.01913 0.50754 0.06822 0.15615 0.56185 0.01391 0.49018 0.68823 0.11247 0.20664 0.58174 0.00598 0.04197 0.51658 0.53379 0.57818 0.00242 0.59899 0.02323 0.62251 0.04675 0.56778 0.00798
### R
15 27.60 0.54545 0.00611 0.50241 0.04304 0.14293 0.55662 0.01117 0.47639 0.68333 0.13788 0.19321 0.57646 0.03101 0.02864 0.51130 0.51681 0.57287 0.02742 0.59335 0.04790 0.61768 0.07223 0.56219 0.01674
###
16 27.50 0.51515 -0.00692 0.49727 0.01788 0.12965 0.55136 0.03621 0.46256 0.67839 0.16324 0.17971 0.57115 0.05600 0.01531 0.50604 0.49984 0.56752 0.05237 0.58767 0.07252 0.61280 0.09765 0.55658 0.04143
###
17 26.60 0.48485 -0.12417 0.45082 0.03403 0.00794 0.50313 0.01828 0.33575 0.63159 0.14674 0.05506 0.52176 0.03691 -0.10507 0.45839 0.58992 0.51768 0.03283 0.53441 0.04956 0.56643 0.08158 0.50506 0.02021
###
18 26.00 0.45455 -0.20234 0.41995 0.03460 -0.07551 0.47012 0.01557 0.24881 0.59821 0.14366 -0.03139 0.48761 0.03306 -0.18569 0.42650 0.64024 0.48296 0.02841 0.49698 0.04243 0.53306 0.07851 0.46995 0.01540
###
19 25.80 0.42424 -0.22839 0.40975 0.01449 -0.10375 0.45892 0.03468 0.21938 0.58673 0.16249 -0.06084 0.47594 0.05170 -0.21263 0.41591 0.63687 0.47116 0.04692 0.48422 0.05998 0.52149 0.09725 0.45816 0.03392
###
20 24.50 0.39394 -0.39775 0.34522 0.04872 -0.29286 0.38477 0.00917 0.02234 0.50881 0.11487 -0.26058 0.39722 0.00328 -0.38855 0.34862 0.78249 0.39254 0.00140 0.39866 0.00472 0.44081 0.04687 0.38135 0.01259
###
21 24.30 0.36364 -0.42381 0.33564 0.02800 -0.32284 0.37331 0.00967 -0.00889 0.49650 0.13286 -0.29268 0.38484 0.02120 -0.41574 0.33859 0.77938 0.38026 0.01662 0.38525 0.02161 0.42757 0.06393 0.36962 0.00598
###
22 24.20 0.33333 -0.43683 0.33090 0.00243 -0.33792 0.36759 0.03426 -0.02461 0.49029 0.15696 -0.30887 0.37864 0.04531 -0.42934 0.33362 0.76267 0.37411 0.04078 0.37853 0.04520 0.42087 0.08754 0.36378 0.03045
###
23 23.60 0.30303 -0.51500 0.30305 0.00002 -0.42975 0.33347 0.03044 -0.12029 0.45236 0.14933 -0.40815 0.34138 0.03835 -0.51117 0.30439 0.81420 0.33727 0.03424 0.33823 0.03520 0.37957 0.07654 0.32907 0.02604
###
24 23.20 0.27273 -0.56711 0.28511 0.01238 -0.49227 0.31103 0.03830 -0.18543 0.42660 0.15387 -0.47645 0.31664 0.04391 -0.56589 0.28553 0.83862 0.31286 0.04013 0.31155 0.03882 0.35104 0.07831 0.30637 0.03364
###
25 21.80 0.24242 -0.74950 0.22677 0.01565 -0.71993 0.23574 0.00668 -0.42264 0.33607 0.09365 -0.73022 0.23259 0.00983 -0.75849 0.22408 1.00091 0.23034 0.01208 0.22177 0.02065 0.24604 0.00362 0.23111 0.01131
###
26 20.80 0.21212 -0.87977 0.18963 0.02249 -0.89169 0.18643 0.02569 -0.60159 0.27354 0.06142 -0.92746 0.17702 0.03510 -0.89710 0.18499 1.10922 0.17636 0.03576 0.16397 0.04815 0.16842 0.04370 0.18268 0.02944
###
27 20.70 0.18182 -0.89280 0.18613 0.00431 -0.90931 0.18176 0.00006 -0.61996 0.26748 0.08566 -0.94801 0.17176 0.01006 -0.91101 0.18131 1.09283 0.17128 0.01054 0.15860 0.02322 0.16068 0.02114 0.17813 0.00369
###
28 20.40 0.15152 -0.93188 0.17588 0.02436 -0.96271 0.16805 0.01653 -0.67559 0.24955 0.09803 -1.01062 0.15632 0.00480 -0.95279 0.17055 1.10431 0.15643 0.00491 0.14297 0.00855 0.13764 0.01388 0.16483 0.01331
###
29 18.80 0.12121 -1.14033 0.12729 0.00608 -1.26146 0.10372 0.01749 -0.98686 0.16207 0.04086 -1.37178 0.08511 0.03610 -1.17699 0.11980 1.29820 0.08860 0.03261 0.07386 0.04735 0.02763 0.09358 0.10323 0.01798
###
30 17.60 0.09091 -1.29666 0.09749 0.00658 -1.50271 0.06638 0.02453 -1.23823 0.10798 0.01707 -1.67873 0.04640 0.04451 -1.34665 0.08912 1.43756 0.05173 0.03918 0.03899 0.05192 #NUM! #NUM! 0.06792 0.02299
###
31 17.20 0.06061 -1.34877 0.08877 0.02816 -1.58680 0.05613 0.00448 -1.32584 0.09254 0.03193 -1.78941 0.03654 0.02407 -1.40350 0.08025 1.46411 0.04215 0.01846 0.03049 0.03012 #NUM! #NUM! 0.05821 0.00240
###
32 16.70 0.03030 -1.41391 0.07870 0.04840 -1.69470 0.04486 0.01456 -1.43827 0.07516 0.04486 -1.93452 0.02631 0.00399 -1.47476 0.07008 1.50506 0.03199 0.00169 0.02184 0.00846 #NUM! #NUM! 0.04746 0.01716
###
Prom 27.55 0.500 0.14465 0.10305 0.16324 0.08703 2.11500 0.08887 0.07252 #NUM! 0.08562
Desv 7.68 0.284 El Ajuste es Bueno El Ajuste es Bueno El Ajuste es Bueno El Ajuste es Bueno El Ajuste es Malo El Ajuste es Bueno El Ajuste es Bueno #NUM! El Ajuste
n 32.00

0.240416 #NUM!
 ESTIMACION DE EVENTOS EXTREMOS PARA DIFERENTES PERIODOS DE RETORNO

DISTRIBUCION DISTRIBUCION
DISTRIBUCION DISTRIBUCION DISTRIBUCION DISTRIBUCION
LOG-NORMAL DE 2 LOG-NORMAL DE 3
NORMAL GUMBEL PEARSON TIPO III LOG-PEARSON TIPO III
PARAMETROS PARAMETROS

TR XT (m3/seg) XT (m3/seg) XT (m3/seg) XT (m3/seg) XT (m3/seg) XT (m3/seg)

Probab. W Z YT
(Años)
Momentos y Max.Ver Momentos Max.Ver Momentos Max.Ver Momentos Max.Ver Momentos Max.Ver Momentos Max.Ver

2.00 0.500 1.177 0.000 0.3665 27.60 26.50 24.40 26.20 27.40 26.30 26.00 25.40 26.50 58.00 26.40
5.00 0.200 1.794 0.841 1.4999 34.00 33.40 30.40 33.00 33.80 33.10 32.30 32.50 32.70 49.40 32.90
10.00 0.100 2.146 1.281 2.2504 37.40 37.70 34.10 37.60 37.30 37.60 36.40 37.50 36.30 46.60 37.10
20.00 0.050 2.448 1.645 2.9702 40.20 41.60 37.50 41.90 40.20 41.90 40.30 42.40 39.50 44.90 41.00
25.00 0.040 2.537 1.751 3.1985 41.00 42.80 38.60 43.30 41.00 43.20 41.50 43.90 40.40 44.50 42.20
50.00 0.020 2.797 2.054 3.9019 43.30 46.50 41.80 47.60 43.50 47.50 45.40 48.70 43.20 43.50 46.00
75.00 0.013 2.939 2.216 4.3108 44.60 48.70 43.60 50.10 44.90 49.90 47.60 51.40 44.80 43.10 48.20
100.00 0.010 3.035 2.326 4.6001 45.40 50.10 44.80 51.80 45.80 51.60 49.20 53.40 45.90 42.80 49.80
200.00 0.005 3.255 2.576 5.2958 47.30 53.70 47.90 56.10 47.90 55.80 53.00 58.00 48.40 42.30 53.50
500.00 0.002 3.526 2.878 6.2136 49.60 58.30 51.80 61.90 50.40 61.30 58.10 64.10 51.50 41.90 58.40
1000.00 0.001 3.717 3.090 6.9073 51.30 61.80 54.80 66.40 52.20 65.40 61.80 68.70 53.80 41.60 62.30
2000.00 0.001 3.899 3.290 7.6007 52.80 65.30 57.80 71.00 54.00 69.60 65.60 73.20 56.00 41.50 66.10
5000.00 0.000 4.127 3.540 8.5171 54.70 69.90 61.70 77.10 56.20 75.10 70.70 79.20 58.90 41.30 71.30
10000.00 0.000 4.292 3.718 9.2103 56.10 73.40 64.60 81.90 57.70 79.20 74.50 83.70 61.00 41.20 75.30
si el párametro a es negativo:

PRUEBA.CHI.INV((Pacumulada);2*b)