Pronósticos de demanda-Regresión Lineal

Crecimiento Sector Financiero

Año 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Crecimiento sector
financiero 33% 35% 35% 36% 38% 41%

b 6.07
a 6.83
Syx 57.72
Periodo Demanda Pronóstico
AÑO xy x2 y2
(x) (y) (Y)
2007 1 33 33 1 1089 13
2008 2 35 70 4 1225 19
2009 3 35 105 9 1225 25
2010 4 36 144 16 1296 31
2011 5 38 190 25 1444 37
2012 6 41 246 36 1681 43
2013 7 44 308 49 1936 49
2014 8 45 360 64 2025 55
2015 9 48 432 81 2304 61
2016 10 47 470 100 2209 68
2017 5.5 40.20 2,358.00 385.00 16,434.00 40
2018 5.5 40.20 4,716.00 770.00 32,868.00 40
2019 5.5 40.20 9,432.00 1,540.00 65,736.00 40
2020 5.5 40.20 18,864.00 3,080.00 131,472.00 40
2021 5.5 40.20 18,864.00 3,080.00 131,472.00 40
2022 5.5 40.20 56,592.00 9,240.00 394,416.00 40

Pronósticos de demanda-Regresión Lineal

Crecimiento Cartera Micro credito

Año 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Crecimiento Cartera
Micro Credito 26.10% 23.60% 54.50% 10.30% 38.00% 20.20%

b 2.52
a 8.40
Syx 84.99
Periodo Demanda Pronóstico
AÑO xy x2 y2
(x) (y) (Y)
2007 1 26.1 26 1 681 11
2008 2 23.6 47 4 557 13
 2009 3 54.5 164 9 2970 16
2010 4 10.3 41 16 106 18
2011 5 38 190 25 1444 21
2012 6 20.2 121 36 408 24
2013 7 17.2 120 49 296 26
2014 8 11.3 90 64 128 29
2015 9 15.3 138 81 234 31
2016 10 6.3 63 100 40 34
2017 5.5 22.28 1,000.70 385.00 6,863.86 22
2018 5.50 22.28 2,001.40 770.00 13,727.72 22
2019 5.50 22.28 4,002.80 1,540.00 27,455.44 22
2020 5.50 22.28 8,005.60 3,080.00 54,910.88 22
2021 5.50 22.28 8,005.60 3,080.00 54,910.88 22
2022 5.50 22.28 24,016.80 9,240.00 164,732.64 22

¿Con cuantos bancos voy a tener contrato de corretaje?

¿Cuántas universidades y bancos tomara el servicio de publicidad?

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Cont. Correta 2 3 5 9 11
Publicidad ba 3 4 7 8 11

Publicidad
universidad
es 4 5 7 8 9

En Girardot existen cinco instituciones de educación

superior y seis institutos tecnológicos y académicos
incluyendo el SENA.
 ión Lineal
ciero

2013 2014 2015 2016

44% 45% 48% 47%

ión Lineal
credito

2013 2014 2015 2016

17.20% 11.30% 15.30% 6.30%
stituciones de educación
nológicos y académicos
l SENA.
 NOMINA PROYECTADA CON IPC
Contratos Valor por
Descripcion 2018 Anual
anuales contrato
Contratos indefinidos
Mercaderista 1 1,200,000 14,400,000
Director Financiero 1 1,200,000 14,400,000
Director comercial 1 1,200,000 14,400,000
Gerencia administrativa 1 1,200,000 14,400,000
TOTAL ANUAL 57,600,000
Contratos prestacion de servicio
Mantenimiento y modificaciones de codigo 2 450,000 900,000
Mantenimiento de App + Web 2 400,000 800,000
Contador Público 12 500,000 6,000,000
Abogado 12 1,200,000 14,400,000
Asesor comercial 12 900,000 10,800,000
Asesor comercial 2.5% 74,471 893,654
TOTAL ANUAL 33,793,654

GASTOS DE ADMINISTRACION PROYECTADOS CON IPC

Descripcion Mensual 2018 2019
Servicios - Energia electrica Punto de
50,000 600,000 628,776
centro comercial
Servicios - Energia electrica Punto de la
30,000 360,000 377,265
universidad
Servicio - Agua Punto de centro comercial 50,000 600,000 628,776
Servicio - Agua Punto de la universidad 20,000 240,000 251,510
Servicios - Internet y Telefonía para tablets
300,000 3,600,000 3,772,654
y celulares
Arriendo Stand Punto de centro comercial 400,000 4,800,000 5,030,205
Arriendo Stand Punto de la universidad 150,000 1,800,000 1,886,327
Honorarios Contador + Abogado 1,700,000 20,400,000 21,378,373
Nomina 4,800,000 57,600,000 60,362,465
Mantenimientos de App + Website +
- 1,700,000 1,781,531
Medios electronico
Papeleria de punto 150,000 1,800,000 1,886,327
Imprevistos 200,000 2,400,000 2,515,103
TOTAL 95,900,000 100,499,312

COSTO DE VENTAS PROYECTADO CON IPC

Descripcion Mensual 2018 2019
Honorarios de asesor comercial 900,000 10,800,000 11,317,962
Publicidad - 4,000,000 4,191,838
Transporte Gasolina + Parqueaderos +
1,500,000 18,000,000 18,863,270
Publico
TOTAL 32,800,000 34,373,070

IPC 2018 2019 2020

Proyectada 3.14% 4.80% 4.94%

AÑOS IPC
2013 1.94% IP
2014 3.66 8.00%
7.00%
2015 6.77%
6.00%

IPC PROYECTADO
2016 5.75%
5.00%
2017 4.09% 4.00%
2018 3.14% 3.00%
2019 4.80% 2.00%
2020 4.94% 1.00%
2021 5.08% 0.00%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2
2022 5.23%
TADA CON IPC
2019 2020 2021 2022
definidos
15,090,616 15,835,950 16,640,759 17,510,283
15,090,616 15,835,950 16,640,759 17,510,283
15,090,616 15,835,950 16,640,759 17,510,283
15,090,616 15,835,950 16,640,759 17,510,283
60,362,465 63,343,800 66,563,034 70,041,133
on de servicio
943,164 989,747 1,040,047 1,094,393
838,368 879,775 924,487 972,794
6,287,757 6,598,312 6,933,649 7,295,951
15,090,616 15,835,950 16,640,759 17,510,283
11,317,962 11,876,962 12,480,569 13,132,712
936,514 982,769 1,032,714 1,086,677
35,414,380 37,163,515 39,052,225 41,092,810

YECTADOS CON IPC

2020 2021 2022
659,831 693,365 729,595

395,899 416,019 437,757

659,831 693,365 729,595
263,932 277,346 291,838
3,958,987 4,160,190 4,377,571
5,278,650 5,546,920 5,836,761
1,979,494 2,080,095 2,188,785
22,434,262 23,574,408 24,806,234
63,343,800 66,563,034 70,041,133
1,869,522 1,964,534 2,067,186
1,979,494 2,080,095 2,188,785
2,639,325 2,773,460 2,918,381
105,463,028 110,822,830 116,613,622

ADO CON IPC

2020 2021 2022
 11,876,962 12,480,569 13,132,712
4,398,875 4,622,433 4,863,968
19,794,937 20,800,948 21,887,854
36,070,775 37,903,950 39,884,534

2021 2022 128,700,000 134,872,382 141,533,802

5.08% 5.23%

IPC
8.00%
7.00%
6.00%
IPC PROYECTADO

5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

AÑOS PROYECTADOS
148,726,780 156,498,156
Inversion inicial Periocidad anual
Operativo
Desarrolador de codigo 1
Diseñador de App 1
Diseñador de Web 1
Subtotal
Muebles, Enseres y Utensilios
Stand para punto de información. 2
Sillas para asesor de punto. 2
Subtotal
Maquinaria y Equipo
Computadores Portatiles 5
Base refrigerantes para portatil 5
Tablet 2
Celulares 6
Subtotal
Adecuaciones
Intalación de Stand para punto de informacion 2
Adecuacion de tomas corrientes y cableado electrico para stand 2
Subtotal
Inversion inicial

RECURSOS PROPIOS $ 10,000,000

RECURSOS FINANCIADOS $ 15,869,800

TOTAL RECURSOS $ 25,869,800

 Valor unitario Costo total

10,000,000 10,000,000
5,500,000 5,500,000
1,500,000 1,500,000
17,000,000 DEPRECIACIÓN
os Residual Diferencia
1,500,000 3,000,000 150,000 2,850,000
99,900 199,800 9,990 189,810
3,199,800 Subtotal por año
Residual Diferencia
480,000 2,400,000 120,000 2,280,000
30,000 150,000 7,500 142,500
260,000 520,000 26,000 494,000
250,000 1,500,000 75,000 1,425,000
4,570,000 Subtotal por año

250,000 500,000 Total por año

300,000 600,000
1,100,000
25,869,800

10,000,000 38.66%
15,869,800 61.34%

25,869,800
IÓN
Anual
570,000
37,962
607,962
Anual
456,000
28,500
98,800
285,000
383,800

991,762
 PROYECCIÓN DE CANTIDAD DE CREDITOS EDUCATIVOS DESEMB
Ecenario pesimista 20%
Año en curso 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
I Semestre 117.00 125.19 133.95 143.33 153.36 164.10
II Semestre 140.40 150.23 160.74 172.00 184.03 196.92
Total 257.40 275.42 294.69 315.33 337.39 361.02
Fuente Dane: Creditos desembolsados en Girardot 1.06542056
Ecenario realista 60%
Año en curso 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
I Semestre 117.00 125.19 133.95 143.33 153.36 164.10
II Semestre 140.40 150.23 160.74 172.00 184.03 196.92
Total 257.40 275.42 294.69 315.33 337.39 361.02
Fuente Dane: Creditos desembolsados en Girardot 1.06542056
Ecenario optimista 80%
Año en curso 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
I Semestre 117.00 125.19 133.95 143.33 153.36 164.10
II Semestre 140.40 150.23 160.74 172.00 184.03 196.92
Total 257.40 275.42 294.69 315.33 337.39 361.02
Fuente Dane: Creditos desembolsados en Girardot 1.06542056

APLICACIONES MOVILES

Ecenario pesimista 20%

Poblacion
Municipios
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Agua de Dios - Cund 10,733 10,634 10,534 10,434 10,334
Girardot - Cund 106,818 107,324 107,796 108,268 108,740
Guataquí - Cund 2,689 2,711 2,733 2,755 2,777
Jerusalén - Cund 2,664 2,660 2,658 2,656 2,654
Nariño - Cund 2,249 2,266 2,283 2,300 2,317
Nilo - Cund 19,828 20,339 20,872 21,405 21,938
Ricaurte - Cund 9,844 9,976 10,110 10,244 10,378
Tocaima - Cund 18,704 18,790 18,885 18,980 19,075
Carmen de Apicalá (Tolima) 8,916 8,956 9,000 9,044 9,088
Coello (Tolima) 9,963 10,043 10,120 10,197 10,274
Espinal (Tolima) 75,949 75,828 75,692 75,556 75,420
Flandes (Tolima) 29,377 29,478 29,550 29,622 29,694
Melgar (Tolima) 36,930 37,224 37,523 37,822 38,121
Suárez (Tolima) 4,547 4,554 4,558 4,562 4,566
TOTALES
 Fuente Dane: Creditos desembolsados en Girardot

Ecenario realista 60%

Poblacion
Municipios
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Agua de Dios - Cund 10,733 10,634 10,534 10,434 10,334
Girardot - Cund 106,818 107,324 107,796 108,268 108,740
Guataquí - Cund 2,689 2,711 2,733 2,755 2,777
Jerusalén - Cund 2,664 2,660 2,658 2,656 2,654
Nariño - Cund 2,249 2,266 2,283 2,300 2,317
Nilo - Cund 19,828 20,339 20,872 21,405 21,938
Ricaurte - Cund 9,844 9,976 10,110 10,244 10,378
Tocaima - Cund 18,704 18,790 18,885 18,980 19,075
Carmen de Apicalá (Tolima) 8,916 8,956 9,000 9,044 9,088
Coello (Tolima) 9,963 10,043 10,120 10,197 10,274
Espinal (Tolima) 75,949 75,828 75,692 75,556 75,420
Flandes (Tolima) 29,377 29,478 29,550 29,622 29,694
Melgar (Tolima) 36,930 37,224 37,523 37,822 38,121
Suárez (Tolima) 4,547 4,554 4,558 4,562 4,566
TOTALES
Fuente Dane: Creditos desembolsados en Girardot

Ecenario optimista 80%

Poblacion
Municipios
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Agua de Dios - Cund 10,733 10,634 10,534 10,434 10,334
Girardot - Cund 106,818 107,324 107,796 108,268 108,740
Guataquí - Cund 2,689 2,711 2,733 2,755 2,777
Jerusalén - Cund 2,664 2,660 2,658 2,656 2,654
Nariño - Cund 2,249 2,266 2,283 2,300 2,317
Nilo - Cund 19,828 20,339 20,872 21,405 21,938
Ricaurte - Cund 9,844 9,976 10,110 10,244 10,378
Tocaima - Cund 18,704 18,790 18,885 18,980 19,075
Carmen de Apicalá (Tolima) 8,916 8,956 9,000 9,044 9,088
Coello (Tolima) 9,963 10,043 10,120 10,197 10,274
Espinal (Tolima) 75,949 75,828 75,692 75,556 75,420
Flandes (Tolima) 29,377 29,478 29,550 29,622 29,694
Melgar (Tolima) 36,930 37,224 37,523 37,822 38,121
Suárez (Tolima) 4,547 4,554 4,558 4,562 4,566
TOTALES
Fuente Dane: Creditos desembolsados en Girardot
DITOS EDUCATIVOS DESEMBOLSADOS

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

169.25 177.37 186.13 195.59 205.81
203.10 212.84 223.36 234.71 246.97
372.36 390.21 409.49 430.30 452.78
74 78 82 86 91

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

169.25 177.37 186.13 195.59 205.81
203.10 212.84 223.36 234.71 246.97
372.36 390.21 409.49 430.30 452.78
223 234 246 258 272

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

169.25 177.37 186.13 195.59 205.81
203.10 212.84 223.36 234.71 246.97
372.36 390.21 409.49 430.30 452.78
298 312 328 344 362

Ganancia por clip $ 30.0

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
2,147 2,127 2,107 2,087 2,067
21,364 21,465 21,559 21,654 21,748
538 542 547 551 555
533 532 532 531 531
450 453 457 460 463
3,966 4,068 4,174 4,281 4,388
1,969 1,995 2,022 2,049 2,076
3,741 3,758 3,777 3,796 3,815
1,783 1,791 1,800 1,809 1,818
1,993 2,009 2,024 2,039 2,055
15,190 15,166 15,138 15,111 15,084
5,875 5,896 5,910 5,924 5,939
7,386 7,445 7,505 7,564 7,624
909 911 912 912 913
67,842 68,157 68,463 68,769 69,075
esembolsados en Girardot

Ganancia por clip $ 30.0

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
6,440 6,380 6,320 6,260 6,200
64,091 64,394 64,678 64,961 65,244
1,613 1,627 1,640 1,653 1,666
1,598 1,596 1,595 1,594 1,592
1,349 1,360 1,370 1,380 1,390
11,897 12,203 12,523 12,843 13,163
5,906 5,986 6,066 6,146 6,227
11,222 11,274 11,331 11,388 11,445
5,350 5,374 5,400 5,426 5,453
5,978 6,026 6,072 6,118 6,164
45,569 45,497 45,415 45,334 45,252
17,626 17,687 17,730 17,773 17,816
22,158 22,334 22,514 22,693 22,873
2,728 2,732 2,735 2,737 2,740
203,527 204,470 205,388 206,307 207,226
esembolsados en Girardot

Ganancia por clip $ 30.0

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
8,586 8,507 8,427 8,347 8,267
85,454 85,859 86,237 86,614 86,992
2,151 2,169 2,186 2,204 2,222
2,131 2,128 2,126 2,125 2,123
1,799 1,813 1,826 1,840 1,854
15,862 16,271 16,698 17,124 17,550
7,875 7,981 8,088 8,195 8,302
14,963 15,032 15,108 15,184 15,260
7,133 7,165 7,200 7,235 7,270
7,970 8,034 8,096 8,158 8,219
60,759 60,662 60,554 60,445 60,336
23,502 23,582 23,640 23,698 23,755
29,544 29,779 30,018 30,258 30,497
3,638 3,643 3,646 3,650 3,653
271,369 272,626 273,851 275,076 276,301
esembolsados en Girardot
 VENTAS PROYECTADAS SEGÚN IPC
Servicio 2018 2019 2020
Corretraje 2,978,848.22 3,271,427.80 3,602,563.38
Publicidad de Bancos 24,423,192.00 25,713,127.33 27,104,336.78
Publicidad de universidades 24,423,192.00 25,713,127.33 27,104,336.78
Publicidad de empresas privadas 24,423,192.00 25,713,127.33 27,104,336.78
76,248,424 54,697,682 57,811,237
VENTAS PROYECTADAS SEGÚN IPC
Servicio 2018 2019 2020
Corretraje 8,936,544.67 9,814,283.41 10,807,690.15
Publicidad de Bancos 73,269,576.00 77,139,381.99 81,313,010.35
Publicidad de universidades 73,269,576.00 77,139,381.99 81,313,010.35
Publicidad de empresas privadas 73,269,576.00 77,139,381.99 81,313,010.35
155,475,697 164,093,047 173,433,711
VENTAS PROYECTADAS SEGÚN IPC
Servicio 2018 2019 2020
Corretraje 11,915,392.90 13,085,711.21 14,410,253.53
Publicidad de Bancos 97,692,768.00 102,852,509.32 108,417,347.14
Publicidad de universidades 97,692,768.00 102,852,509.32 108,417,347.14
Publicidad de empresas privadas 97,692,768.00 102,852,509.32 108,417,347.14
207,300,929 218,790,730 231,244,948
 Pesimista PRECIOS PROYEC
2021 2022 Servicio
3,978,044.44 4,404,633.02 Corretraje
28,609,208.14 30,238,157.80 Publicidad de Bancos
28,609,208.14 30,238,157.80 Publicidad de universidades
28,609,208.14 30,238,157.80 Publicidad de empresas privadas
61,196,461 64,880,949
Realista
2021 2022
11,934,133.33 13,213,899.07
85,827,624.42 90,714,473.41
85,827,624.42 90,714,473.41
85,827,624.42 90,714,473.41
183,589,382 194,642,846
Optimista
2021 2022
15,912,177.77 17,618,532.10
114,436,832.56 120,952,631.22
114,436,832.56 120,952,631.22
114,436,832.56 120,952,631.22
244,785,843 259,523,795
PRECIOS PROYECTADOS SEGÚN IPC
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
$ 40,000.00 $ 41,918.38 $ 43,988.75 $ 46,224.33 $ 48,639.68
$ 30.00 $ 31.44 $ 32.99 $ 34.67 $ 36.48
$ 30.00 $ 31.44 $ 32.99 $ 34.67 $ 36.48
$ 30.00 $ 31.44 $ 32.99 $ 34.67 $ 36.48
 Tabla de amortización

Entidad Bancolombia Monto $15,869,800

Plazo 60 Tasa Mes vencido 2.00%

periodos inicial interés amort cuota final

0 $15,869,800.00
1 $15,869,800.00 $317,396.00 $139,145.86 $456,541.86 $15,730,654.14
2 $15,730,654.14 $314,613.08 $141,928.78 $456,541.86 $15,588,725.35
3 $15,588,725.35 $311,774.51 $144,767.36 $456,541.86 $15,443,958.00
4 $15,443,958.00 $308,879.16 $147,662.70 $456,541.86 $15,296,295.29
5 $15,296,295.29 $305,925.91 $150,615.96 $456,541.86 $15,145,679.34
6 $15,145,679.34 $302,913.59 $153,628.28 $456,541.86 $14,992,051.06
7 $14,992,051.06 $299,841.02 $156,700.84 $456,541.86 $14,835,350.22
8 $14,835,350.22 $296,707.00 $159,834.86 $456,541.86 $14,675,515.36
9 $14,675,515.36 $293,510.31 $163,031.56 $456,541.86 $14,512,483.80
10 $14,512,483.80 $290,249.68 $166,292.19 $456,541.86 $14,346,191.61
11 $14,346,191.61 $286,923.83 $169,618.03 $456,541.86 $14,176,573.58
12 $14,176,573.58 $283,531.47 $173,010.39 $456,541.86 $14,003,563.19
13 $14,003,563.19 $280,071.26 $176,470.60 $456,541.86 $13,827,092.59
14 $13,827,092.59 $276,541.85 $180,000.01 $456,541.86 $13,647,092.57
15 $13,647,092.57 $272,941.85 $183,600.01 $456,541.86 $13,463,492.56
16 $13,463,492.56 $269,269.85 $187,272.01 $456,541.86 $13,276,220.55
17 $13,276,220.55 $265,524.41 $191,017.45 $456,541.86 $13,085,203.09
18 $13,085,203.09 $261,704.06 $194,837.80 $456,541.86 $12,890,365.29
19 $12,890,365.29 $257,807.31 $198,734.56 $456,541.86 $12,691,630.73
20 $12,691,630.73 $253,832.61 $202,709.25 $456,541.86 $12,488,921.48
21 $12,488,921.48 $249,778.43 $206,763.43 $456,541.86 $12,282,158.05
22 $12,282,158.05 $245,643.16 $210,898.70 $456,541.86 $12,071,259.35
23 $12,071,259.35 $241,425.19 $215,116.68 $456,541.86 $11,856,142.67
24 $11,856,142.67 $237,122.85 $219,419.01 $456,541.86 $11,636,723.66
25 $11,636,723.66 $232,734.47 $223,807.39 $456,541.86 $11,412,916.27
26 $11,412,916.27 $228,258.33 $228,283.54 $456,541.86 $11,184,632.73
27 $11,184,632.73 $223,692.65 $232,849.21 $456,541.86 $10,951,783.52
28 $10,951,783.52 $219,035.67 $237,506.19 $456,541.86 $10,714,277.33
29 $10,714,277.33 $214,285.55 $242,256.32 $456,541.86 $10,472,021.01
30 $10,472,021.01 $209,440.42 $247,101.44 $456,541.86 $10,224,919.57
31 $10,224,919.57 $204,498.39 $252,043.47 $456,541.86 $9,972,876.09
32 $9,972,876.09 $199,457.52 $257,084.34 $456,541.86 $9,715,791.75
33 $9,715,791.75 $194,315.84 $262,226.03 $456,541.86 $9,453,565.72
34 $9,453,565.72 $189,071.31 $267,470.55 $456,541.86 $9,186,095.17
35 $9,186,095.17 $183,721.90 $272,819.96 $456,541.86 $8,913,275.21
36 $8,913,275.21 $178,265.50 $278,276.36 $456,541.86 $8,634,998.85
37 $8,634,998.85 $172,699.98 $283,841.89 $456,541.86 $8,351,156.96
38 $8,351,156.96 $167,023.14 $289,518.72 $456,541.86 $8,061,638.24
39 $8,061,638.24 $161,232.76 $295,309.10 $456,541.86 $7,766,329.14
40 $7,766,329.14 $155,326.58 $301,215.28 $456,541.86 $7,465,113.86
41 $7,465,113.86 $149,302.28 $307,239.59 $456,541.86 $7,157,874.27
42 $7,157,874.27 $143,157.49 $313,384.38 $456,541.86 $6,844,489.89
43 $6,844,489.89 $136,889.80 $319,652.07 $456,541.86 $6,524,837.83
44 $6,524,837.83 $130,496.76 $326,045.11 $456,541.86 $6,198,792.72
45 $6,198,792.72 $123,975.85 $332,566.01 $456,541.86 $5,866,226.71
46 $5,866,226.71 $117,324.53 $339,217.33 $456,541.86 $5,527,009.38
47 $5,527,009.38 $110,540.19 $346,001.68 $456,541.86 $5,181,007.70
48 $5,181,007.70 $103,620.15 $352,921.71 $456,541.86 $4,828,085.99
49 $4,828,085.99 $96,561.72 $359,980.14 $456,541.86 $4,468,105.85
50 $4,468,105.85 $89,362.12 $367,179.75 $456,541.86 $4,100,926.10
51 $4,100,926.10 $82,018.52 $374,523.34 $456,541.86 $3,726,402.76
52 $3,726,402.76 $74,528.06 $382,013.81 $456,541.86 $3,344,388.95
53 $3,344,388.95 $66,887.78 $389,654.09 $456,541.86 $2,954,734.87
54 $2,954,734.87 $59,094.70 $397,447.17 $456,541.86 $2,557,287.70
55 $2,557,287.70 $51,145.75 $405,396.11 $456,541.86 $2,151,891.59
56 $2,151,891.59 $43,037.83 $413,504.03 $456,541.86 $1,738,387.56
57 $1,738,387.56 $34,767.75 $421,774.11 $456,541.86 $1,316,613.45
58 $1,316,613.45 $26,332.27 $430,209.60 $456,541.86 $886,403.85
59 $886,403.85 $17,728.08 $438,813.79 $456,541.86 $447,590.06
60 $447,590.06 $8,951.80 $447,590.06 $456,541.86 $0.00
 CUOTA POR AÑO
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
5,478,502 5,478,502 5,478,502 5,478,502 5,478,502
 FLUJO DE CAJA ESCENARIO PES
DESEMBOLSO 2018
Saldo Incial 10,000,000 10,000,000
Ingresos
Ventas 76,248,424
Total Ingresos 10,000,000 76,248,424
Egresos
Gastos de Administración 95,900,000
Costos de Ventas 32,800,000
Comision por veta 1,906,211
Crédito principal 5,478,502
Impuestos
Operativo 17,000,000
Maquinaria y Equipos 4,570,000
Muebles, Enseres y Utensilios 3,199,800
Adecuaciones 1,100,000
Total Egresos - 161,954,513
Disponible periodo -85,706,089
Caja Acumulada 10,000,000 -75,706,089

FLUJO DE CAJA ESCENARIO REA

DESEMBOLSO 2018
Saldo Incial 10,000,000 10,000,000
Ingresos
Ventas 155,475,697
Total Ingresos 10,000,000 155,475,697
Egresos
Gastos de Administración 95,900,000
Costos de Ventas 32,800,000
Comision por veta 3,886,892
Crédito principal 5,478,502
Impuestos
Operativo 17,000,000
Maquinaria y Equipos 4,570,000
Muebles, Enseres y Utensilios 3,199,800
Adecuaciones 1,100,000
Total Egresos - 163,935,195
Disponible periodo -8,459,498
Caja Acumulada 10,000,000 1,540,502
 FLUJO DE CAJA ESCENARIO OPT
DESEMBOLSO 2018

Saldo Incial 10,000,000 10,000,000

Ingresos
Ventas 207,300,929
Total Ingresos 10,000,000 207,300,929
Egresos
Gastos de Administración 95,900,000
Costos de Ventas 32,800,000
Comision por veta 5,182,523
Crédito principal 5,478,502
Impuestos
Operativo 17,000,000
Maquinaria y Equipos 4,570,000
Muebles, Enseres y Utensilios 3,199,800
Adecuaciones 1,100,000
Total Egresos - 165,230,826
Disponible periodo 42,070,103
Caja Acumulada 10,000,000 52,070,103
FLUJO DE CAJA ESCENARIO PESIMISTA
2019 2020 2021 2022
-75,706,089 -162,726,733 -253,373,082 -347,911,815
Ingresos
54,697,682 57,811,237 61,196,461 64,880,949
54,697,682 57,811,237 61,196,461 64,880,949
Egresos
100,499,312 105,463,028 110,822,830 116,613,622
34,373,070 36,070,775 37,903,950 39,884,534
1,367,442 1,445,281 1,529,912 1,622,024
5,478,502 5,478,502 5,478,502 5,478,502
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
141,718,327 148,457,586 155,735,194 163,598,682
-87,020,644 -90,646,349 -94,538,733 -98,717,733
-162,726,733 -253,373,082 -347,911,815 -446,629,548

FLUJO DE CAJA ESCENARIO REALISTA

2019 2020 2021 2022
1,540,502 21,180,338 43,265,902 68,060,267
Ingresos
164,093,047 173,433,711 183,589,382 194,642,846
164,093,047 173,433,711 183,589,382 194,642,846
Egresos
100,499,312 105,463,028 110,822,830 116,613,622
34,373,070 36,070,775 37,903,950 39,884,534
4,102,326 4,335,843 4,589,735 4,866,071
5,478,502 5,478,502 5,478,502 5,478,502
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
144,453,211 151,348,147 158,795,017 166,842,729
19,639,836 22,085,563 24,794,366 27,800,117
21,180,338 43,265,902 68,060,267 95,860,384
FLUJO DE CAJA ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA
2019 2020 2021 2022

52,070,103 125,040,180 203,491,700 287,952,614

Ingresos
218,790,730 231,244,948 244,785,843 259,523,795
218,790,730 231,244,948 244,785,843 259,523,795
Egresos
100,499,312 105,463,028 110,822,830 116,613,622
34,373,070 36,070,775 37,903,950 39,884,534
5,469,768 5,781,124 6,119,646 6,488,095
5,478,502 5,478,502 5,478,502 5,478,502
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
145,820,653 152,793,428 160,324,928 168,464,753
72,970,077 78,451,519 84,460,915 91,059,041
125,040,180 203,491,700 287,952,614 379,011,656
ACUMULADO
10,000,000

314,834,753
314,834,753

529,298,791
181,032,329
7,870,869
27,392,512
-

4,570,000
3,199,800
1,100,000
754,464,301

-439,629,548

ACUMULADO
10,000,000

871,234,683
871,234,683

529,298,791
181,032,329
21,780,867
27,392,512
-

4,570,000
3,199,800
1,100,000
768,374,299

102,860,384
ACUMULADO

10,000,000

1,161,646,244
1,161,646,244

529,298,791
181,032,329
29,041,156
27,392,512
-

4,570,000
3,199,800
1,100,000
775,634,588

386,011,656
 ESTADO DE RESULTADOS - ESCENARIO PESIMISTA

2018 2019 2020

Ventas 76,248,424 54,697,682 57,811,237

Costos de Ventas 34,706,211 35,740,512 37,516,056

Utilidad Bruta 41,542,214 18,957,170 20,295,181

Margen bruto 54.5% 34.7% 35.1%
Gastos de Administración 38,300,000 40,136,847 42,119,228
Nomina 57,600,000 60,362,465 63,343,800
Depreciación 991,762 991,762 991,762
Gastos de impuestos 0 0 0
Utilidad Operacional -55,349,548 -82,533,904 -86,159,608
Margen Operacional -72.6% -150.9% -149.0%
Otros Egresos 5,478,502 5,478,502 5,478,502
Otros Ingresos 0 0 0
Utilidad Antes de Impuestos -60,828,051 -88,012,406 -91,638,111
Impuestos 298,131 213,868 226,042
impuesto de industria y cio 259,245 185,972 196,558
impuesto de avisos y tableros 38,887 27,896 29,484
Utilidad Neta -61,126,182 -88,226,274 -91,864,153
Margen Neto -80.2% -161.3% -158.9%

ESTADO DE RESULTADOS - ESCENARIO REALISTA

2018 2019 2020

Ventas 155,475,697 164,093,047 173,433,711

Costos de Ventas 36,686,892 38,475,396 40,406,618

Utilidad Bruta 118,788,804 125,617,651 133,027,093

Margen bruto 76.4% 76.6% 76.7%
Gastos de Administración 38,300,000 40,136,847 42,119,228
Nomina 57,600,000 60,362,465 63,343,800
Depreciación 991,762 991,762 991,762
Gastos de impuestos 0 0 0
Utilidad Operacional 21,897,042 24,126,577 26,572,304
Margen Operacional 14.1% 14.7% 15.3%
Otros Egresos 5,478,502 5,478,502 5,478,502
Otros Ingresos 0 0 0
Utilidad Antes de Impuestos 16,418,540 18,648,074 21,093,801
Impuestos 607,910 641,604 678,126
impuesto de industria y cio 528,617 557,916 589,675
impuesto de avisos y tableros 79,293 83,687 88,451
Utilidad Neta 15,810,630 18,006,471 20,415,676
Margen Neto 10.2% 11.0% 11.8%

ESTADO DE RESULTADOS - ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA

2018 2019 2020

Ventas 207,300,929 218,790,730 231,244,948

Costos de Ventas 37,982,523 39,842,839 41,851,898

Utilidad Bruta 169,318,406 178,947,891 189,393,049

Margen bruto 81.7% 81.8% 81.9%
Gastos de Administración 38,300,000 40,136,847 42,119,228
Nomina 57,600,000 60,362,465 63,343,800
Depreciación 991,762 991,762 991,762
Gastos de impuestos 0 0 0
Utilidad Operacional 72,426,644 77,456,817 82,938,260
Margen Operacional 34.9% 35.4% 35.9%
Otros Egresos 5,478,502 5,478,502 5,478,502
Otros Ingresos 0 0 0
Utilidad Antes de Impuestos 66,948,141 71,978,315 77,459,757
Impuestos 810,547 855,472 904,168
impuesto de industria y cio 704,823 743,888 786,233
impuesto de avisos y tableros 105,723 111,583 117,935
Utilidad Neta 66,137,595 71,122,843 76,555,590
Margen Neto 31.9% 32.5% 33.1%
PESIMISTA

2021 2022

61,196,461 64,880,949
39,433,862 41,506,558

21,762,599 23,374,391
35.6% 36.0%
44,259,795 46,572,489
66,563,034 70,041,133
991,762 991,762
0 0
-90,051,992 -94,230,993
-147.2% -145.2%
5,478,502 5,478,502
0 0
-95,530,495 -99,709,495
239,278 253,685
208,068 220,595
31,210 33,089
-95,769,773 -99,963,180
-156.5% -154.1%

REALISTA
2021 2022

183,589,382 194,642,846
42,493,685 44,750,605

141,095,698 149,892,241
76.9% 77.0%
44,259,795 46,572,489
66,563,034 70,041,133
991,762 991,762
0 0
29,281,106 32,286,857
15.9% 16.6%
5,478,502 5,478,502
0 0
23,802,604 26,808,355
717,834 761,054
 624,204 661,786
93,631 99,268
23,084,769 26,047,301
12.6% 13.4%

OPTIMISTA
2021 2022

244,785,843 259,523,795
44,023,596 46,372,629

200,762,247 213,151,166
82.0% 82.1%
44,259,795 46,572,489
66,563,034 70,041,133
991,762 991,762
0 0
88,947,655 95,545,782
36.3% 36.8%
5,478,502 5,478,502
0 0
83,469,153 90,067,279
957,113 1,014,738
832,272 882,381
124,841 132,357
82,512,040 89,052,541
33.7% 34.3%
 BALANCE GENERAL EN ECENARIO PESIMISTA
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
ACTIVOS
Caja y Bancos
Cuentas por Cobrar 76,248,424 54,697,682 57,811,237 61,196,461 64,880,949
Inventarios - - - - -
Total Activos Corrientes 76,248,424 54,697,682 57,811,237 61,196,461 64,880,949
Activos Fijos 25,869,800 25,869,800 25,869,800 25,869,800 25,869,800
Depreciación Acumulada 991,762 991,762 991,762 991,762 991,762
Total Activo Largo Plazo 24,878,038 24,878,038 24,878,038 24,878,038 24,878,038
Total Activos 101,126,462 79,575,720 82,689,275 86,074,499 89,758,987

PASIVOS
Cuentas por Pagar 130,606,211 136,239,824 142,979,083 150,256,691 158,120,180
Obligaciones Financieras 5,478,502 5,478,502 5,478,502 5,478,502 5,478,502
Impuestos por pagar 298,131 213,868 226,042 239,278 253,685
Otros Pasivos 0 0 0 0 0
Total Pasivos 136,382,844 141,932,195 148,683,628 155,974,472 163,852,366

PASIVOS
Capital Inicial 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000
Capital adeudado 15,869,800 15,869,800 15,869,800 15,869,800 15,869,800
Utilidad del Ejercicio -61,126,182 -88,226,274 -91,864,153 -95,769,773 -99,963,180
Patrimonio -35,256,382 -62,356,474 -65,994,353 -69,899,973 -74,093,380
Pasivo + Patrimonio 101,126,462 79,575,720 82,689,275 86,074,499 89,758,987
- - - - -

BALANCE GENERAL EN ECENARIO REALISTA

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
ACTIVOS
Caja y Bancos
Cuentas por Cobrar 155,475,697 164,093,047 173,433,711 183,589,382 194,642,846
Inventarios - - - - -
Total Activos Corrientes 155,475,697 164,093,047 173,433,711 183,589,382 194,642,846
Activos Fijos 25,869,800 25,869,800 25,869,800 25,869,800 25,869,800
Depreciación Acumulada 991,762 991,762 991,762 991,762 991,762
Total Activo Largo Plazo 24,878,038 24,878,038 24,878,038 24,878,038 24,878,038
Total Activos 180,353,735 188,971,085 198,311,749 208,467,420 219,520,884

PASIVOS
Cuentas por Pagar 132,586,892 138,974,709 145,869,645 153,316,514 161,364,227
Obligaciones Financieras 5,478,502 5,478,502 5,478,502 5,478,502 5,478,502
Impuestos por pagar 607,910 641,604 678,126 717,834 761,054
Otros Pasivos 0 0 0 0 0
Total Pasivos 138,673,305 145,094,815 152,026,273 159,512,851 167,603,783

PASIVOS
Capital Inicial 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000
Capital adeudado 15,869,800 15,869,800 15,869,800 15,869,800 15,869,800
Utilidad del Ejercicio 15,810,630 18,006,471 20,415,676 23,084,769 26,047,301
Patrimonio 41,680,430 43,876,271 46,285,476 48,954,569 51,917,101
Pasivo + Patrimonio 180,353,735 188,971,085 198,311,749 208,467,420 219,520,884
- - - - -

BALANCE GENERAL EN ECENARIO OPTIMISTA

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
ACTIVOS
Caja y Bancos
Cuentas por Cobrar 207,300,929 218,790,730 231,244,948 244,785,843 259,523,795
Inventarios - - - - -
Total Activos Corrientes 207,300,929 218,790,730 231,244,948 244,785,843 259,523,795
Activos Fijos 25,869,800 25,869,800 25,869,800 25,869,800 25,869,800
Depreciación Acumulada 991,762 991,762 991,762 991,762 991,762
Total Activo Largo Plazo 24,878,038 24,878,038 24,878,038 24,878,038 24,878,038
Total Activos 232,178,967 243,668,768 256,122,986 269,663,881 284,401,833

PASIVOS
Cuentas por Pagar 133,882,523 140,342,151 147,314,926 154,846,426 162,986,251
Obligaciones Financieras 5,478,502 5,478,502 5,478,502 5,478,502 5,478,502
Impuestos por pagar 810,547 855,472 904,168 957,113 1,014,738
Otros Pasivos 0 0 0 0 0
Total Pasivos 140,171,572 146,676,125 153,697,596 161,282,041 169,479,491

PASIVOS
Capital Inicial 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000
Capital adeudado 15,869,800 15,869,800 15,869,800 15,869,800 15,869,800
Utilidad del Ejercicio 66,137,595 71,122,843 76,555,590 82,512,040 89,052,541
Patrimonio 92,007,395 96,992,643 102,425,390 108,381,840 114,922,341
Pasivo + Patrimonio 232,178,967 243,668,768 256,122,986 269,663,881 284,401,833
- - - - -
 ANALISIS DE CIFRAS
INDUCTORES DE VALOR
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Rentabilidad en escenario pesimista
RAN: 1 1 1 1 1
ROA: -0.60445289 -1.10870846 -1.11095608 -1.11263817 -1.11368436
ROE: 1.73376219 1.41486951 1.39200021 1.37009742 1.3491513
Rentabilidad en escenario realista
RAN: 1 1 1 1 1
ROA: 0.08766456 0.09528691 0.10294738 0.11073562 0.11865523
ROE: 0.37932982 0.410392 0.44108169 0.47155494 0.50170947
Rentabilidad en escenario optimista
RAN: 1 1 1 1 1
ROA: 0.2848561 0.2918833 0.29890168 0.30598106 0.31312225
ROE: 0.71882912 0.7332808 0.74742786 0.76130872 0.7748932
RAZONES FINANCIERAS
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Liquidez en escenario pesimista
Razon Corriente 0.55907636 0.38537897 0.38882046 0.39234921 0.395972
Prueba Acida NO CONTAMOS CON INVENTARIOS
Liquidez en escenario realista
Razon Corriente 1.1211653 1.13093667 1.14081407 1.15093788 1.16132728
Prueba Acida NO CONTAMOS CON INVENTARIOS
Liquidez en escenario optimista
Razon Corriente 1.47890849 1.49165878 1.50454499 1.51775016 1.53129911
Prueba Acida NO CONTAMOS CON INVENTARIOS
RAZONES FINANCIERAS
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Rentabilidad en escenario pesimista
RENT. BRUTA 54.48% 34.66% 35.11% 35.56% 36.03%
RENT. NETA -80.17% -161.30% -158.90% -156.50% -154.07%

Rentabilidad en escenario realista

RENT. BRUTA 76.40% 76.55% 76.70% 76.85% 77.01%
RENT. NETA 10.17% 10.97% 11.77% 12.57% 13.38%

Rentabilidad en escenario optimista

RENT. BRUTA 81.68% 81.79% 81.90% 82.02% 82.13%
RENT. NETA 31.90% 32.51% 33.11% 33.71% 34.31%
 TIR Y VPN PARA CADA ESCENAR
Inversión inicial 2018 2019 2020
Escenario Pesimista -$ 25,869,800.00 $ 76,248,424.22 $ 54,697,682.46 $ 57,811,236.95
Escenario Realista -$ 25,869,800.00 $ 155,475,696.67 $ 164,093,047.39 $ 173,433,710.85
Escenario Optimista -$ 25,869,800.00 $ 207,300,928.90 $ 218,790,729.85 $ 231,244,947.81
Y VPN PARA CADA ESCENARIO
2021 2022 Riesgo asumido TIR VPN Prueba
$ 61,196,460.72 $ 64,880,948.63 5.00% 2.73 $ 247,482,078.02 -
$ 183,589,382.17 $ 194,642,845.90 15.00% 6.07 $ 549,179,576.53 -
$ 244,785,842.89 $ 259,523,794.54 20.00% 8.07 $ 654,986,809.35 -