3 PUNTO

Demanda
70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Demanda

Mes Demanda FT (PS) FT (PM) FT (PP) FT (SES)

1 44 49.88
2 54 44 48.11
3 52 49 49.88
4 40 50 50 50.52
5 56 47.5 48.67 45.6 47.36
6 54 49.2 49.33 51.8 49.95
7 66 50 50 51.4 51.17
8 60 52.29 58.67 59 55.62
9 48 53.25 60 59.6 56.93
10 54 52.67 58 54.6 54.25
11 46 52.8 54 55.2 54.18
12 56 52.18 49.33 49.4 51.72
13 52 52.5 52 52.8 53.01
14 40 52.46 51.33 51.8 52.70
15 42 51.57 49.33 46.2 48.89
16 38 50.93 44.67 45 46.83
17 48 50.13 40 40.6 44.18
18 44 50 42.67 44 45.32
19 53 49.67 43.33 43.4 44.93
20 58 49.84 48.33 48.7 47.35
21 30 50.25 51.67 53.2 50.54
22 56 49.29 47 41.6 44.38
23 62 49.59 48 50.9 47.87
24 44 50.13 49.33 54 52.11
48 49.88 54 48.6 49.67
 Error Medio 1 (ME) 0.27
Error Medio 2 (ME) -0.06 En promedio por periodo el pronostico que estuvo mas
Error Medio 3 (ME) -0.41 cerca de la demanda real obtenida fue el (SES)
Error Medio 4 (ME) 0.03
Error Absoluto medio 1 (MAD) 7.73
Error Absoluto medio 2 (MAD) 8.29 En promedio por periodo el pronostico que presenta
Error Absoluto medio 3 (MAD) 8.25 menor error fue el (PS)
Error Absoluto medio 4 (MAD) 7.74
Error porcentual abs 1 (MAPE) 16.79%
Error porcentual abs 2 (MAPE) 17.90% En promedio por periodo el menor error del
Error porcentual abs 3 (MAPE) 17.81% pronostico respecto a su demanda es del 16.67%
Error porcentual abs 4 (MAPE) 16.67%
Error cuadratico 1 (MSE) 82.14
Error cuadratico 2 (MSE) 93.14
Error cuadratico 3 (MSE) 99.95
Error cuadratico 4 (MSE) 82.70
Desvesta 1 MSE 9.06
Desvesta 2 MSE 9.65 Según los datos arrojados el pronostico mas acertado
para llevar a cabo la prevision de la demanda futura es
Desvesta 3 MSE 10.00 el (SES)
Desvesta 4 MSE 9.09

4 PUNTO

Ventas Pendiente
2500 interseccion
Alfa
2000 Beta

1500

1000

500

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

SED
t Mes Ventas FT (RL) St Gt
0 1557.58 39.86
1 Enero 2000 1597.44 1677.95 47.91
2 Febrero 2100 1637.30 1800.69 55.39
3 Marzo 1500 1677.16 1784.87 48.27
 4 Abril 1400 1717.02 1746.51 39.61
5 Mayo 1300 1756.88 1688.90 29.89
6 Junio 1600 1796.74 1695.03 27.51
7 Julio 1700 1836.60 1718.03 27.06
8 Agosto 1800 1876.46 1756.07 28.16
9 Septiembre 2000 1916.32 1827.39 32.47
10 Octubre 2000 1956.18 1887.89 35.28
11 Noviembre 2100 1996.04 1958.53 38.81
12 Diciembre 2300 2035.90 2057.88 44.87
13 Enero 2075.76

Error Medio 1 (ME) 0.00

Error Medio 2 (ME) -20.86
Error Absoluto medio 1 (MAD) 226.81 Según los resultados obtenidos el mejor pronostico es el n
Error Absoluto medio 2 (MAD) 256.97 Regresion lineal ya que es el que presenta menos error fr
demanda real obtenida
Error porcentual abs 1 (MAPE) 13%
Error porcentual abs 2 (MAPE) 15%
Error cuadratico 1 (MSE) 72455.32
Error cuadratico 2 (MSE) 88287.65
Desvesta 1 MSE 269.18
Desvesta 2 MSE 297.13

5 PUNTO

Demanda Pendiente
250 Interseccion
Alfa
200 Beta
Gama
150
Demanda
100

50

0
1 4 7 1 0 1 3 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 3 7 4 0 43 4 6 4 9

SET
Periodos Año Demanda
FT (RL) Dt / RL Ct
-11 1.88
-10 1.85
-9 1.65
-8 0.98
-7 0.76
-6 0.43
-5 0.21
-4 0.23
-3 0.39
-2 0.74
-1 0.98
0 1.61
1 196 109.69 1.79 1.86
2 196 109.99 1.78 1.842
3 173 110.30 1.57 1.638
4 105 110.61 0.95 0.976
5 75 110.91 0.68 0.750
6 39 111.22 0.35 0.420
2000
7 13 111.52 0.12 0.195
8 20 111.83 0.18 0.227
9 37 112.13 0.33 0.395
10 73 112.44 0.65 0.750
11 108 112.74 0.96 1.013
12 191 113.05 1.69 1.675
13 227 113.36 2.00 1.931
14 217 113.66 1.91 1.882
15 197 113.97 1.73 1.670
16 110 114.27 0.96 0.979
17 88 114.58 0.77 0.756
18 51 114.88 0.44 0.425
2001
19 27 115.19 0.23 0.201
20 23 115.49 0.20 0.221
21 41 115.80 0.35 0.387
22 90 116.11 0.78 0.753
23 107 116.41 0.92 0.995
24 172 116.72 1.47 1.643
25 216 117.02 1.85 1.925
26 218 117.33 1.86 1.887
27 193 117.63 1.64 1.672
28 120 117.94 1.02 0.989
29 99 118.25 0.84 0.770
30 59 118.55 0.50 0.435
2002
31 33 118.86 0.28 0.210
32 37 119.16 0.31 0.229
33 59 119.47 0.49 0.390
34 95 119.77 0.79 0.735
35 128 120.08 1.07 0.975
36 201 120.38 1.67 1.601
37 228 120.69 1.89 1.872
38 121.00
39 121.30
40 121.61
41 121.91
42 122.22
2003
43 122.52
44 122.83
45 123.13
46 123.44
47 123.75
48 124.05
49 2004 124.36
W1 0.1
W2 0.2
W3 0.2
W4 0.5
Alfa 0.3

ME MAD
Et1 Et2 Et3 Et4 E. Abs 1 E. Abs 2 E. Abs 3 E. Abs 4
5.88 5.88
-10 -5.89 10 5.89
-3 -2.12 3 2.12
10 10 10.52 10 10 10.52
-8.5 -7.33 -10.4 -8.64 8.5 7.33 10.4 8.64
-4.8 -4.67 -2.2 -4.05 4.8 4.67 2.2 4.05
-16 -16 -14.6 -14.83 16 16 14.6 14.83
-7.71 -1.33 -1 -4.38 7.71 1.33 1 4.38
5.25 12 11.6 8.93 5.25 12 11.6 8.93
-1.33 4 0.6 0.25 1.33 4 0.6 0.25
6.8 8 9.2 8.18 6.8 8 9.2 8.18
-3.82 -6.67 -6.6 -4.28 3.82 6.67 6.6 4.28
0.5 0 0.8 1.01 0.5 0 0.8 1.01
12.46 11.33 11.8 12.70 12.46 11.33 11.8 12.70
9.57 7.33 4.2 6.89 9.57 7.33 4.2 6.89
12.93 6.67 7 8.83 12.93 6.67 7 8.83
2.13 -8 -7.4 -3.82 2.13 8 7.4 3.82
6 -1.33 0 1.32 6 1.33 0 1.32
-3.33 -9.67 -9.6 -8.07 3.33 9.67 9.6 8.07
-8.16 -9.67 -9.3 -10.65 8.16 9.67 9.3 10.65
20.25 21.67 23.2 20.54 20.25 21.67 23.2 20.54
-6.71 -9 -14.4 -11.62 6.71 9 14.4 11.62
-12.41 -14 -11.1 -14.13 12.41 14 11.1 14.13
6.13 5.33 10 8.11 6.13 5.33 10 8.11
 39.86
1557.58
0.2
0.1

SED ME MAD MAPE

Tao Ft Et1 Et2 E. Abs 1 E. Abs 2 E. % 1 E. % 2

1 1597.44 -402.56 -402.56 402.56 402.56 20% 20%

1 1725.86 -462.70 -374.14 462.70 374.14 22% 18%
1 1856.08 177.16 356.08 177.16 356.08 12% 24%
 1 1833.14 317.02 433.14 317.02 433.14 23% 31%
1 1786.12 456.88 486.12 456.88 486.12 35% 37%
1 1718.78 196.74 118.78 196.74 118.78 12% 7%
1 1722.54 136.60 22.54 136.60 22.54 8% 1%
1 1745.09 76.46 -54.91 76.46 54.91 4% 3%
1 1784.23 -83.68 -215.77 83.68 215.77 4% 11%
1 1859.86 -43.82 -140.14 43.82 140.14 2% 7%
1 1923.17 -103.96 -176.83 103.96 176.83 5% 8%
1 1997.35 -264.10 -302.65 264.10 302.65 11% 13%
1 2102.74

os el mejor pronostico es el numero 1,

que presenta menos error frente a la
da real obtenida

0.31
109.38
0.2
0.1
0.2

SET ME MAD
St Gt Tao Ft, t+Tao Et1 Et2 E. Abs 1 E. Abs 2
109.38 0.31
108.62 0.20 1 206.04 0.56 10.04 0.56 10.04
108.25 0.14 1 201.28 0.56 5.28 0.56 5.28
107.73 0.08 1 178.40 0.64 5.40 0.64 5.40
107.75 0.07 1 105.27 1.05 0.27 1.05 0.27
105.98 -0.11 1 82.00 1.48 7.00 1.48 7.00
102.80 -0.42 1 45.60 2.85 6.60 2.85 6.60
94.31 -1.23 1 21.45 8.58 8.45 8.58 8.45
91.90 -1.35 1 21.36 5.59 1.36 5.59 1.36
91.29 -1.27 1 35.55 3.03 -1.45 3.03 1.45
91.77 -1.10 1 66.54 1.54 -6.46 1.54 6.46
94.55 -0.71 1 88.95 1.04 -19.05 1.04 19.05
98.79 -0.21 1 151.18 0.59 -39.82 0.59 39.82
103.22 0.25 1 183.70 0.50 -43.30 0.50 43.30
106.34 0.54 1 190.58 0.52 -26.42 0.52 26.42
109.56 0.80 1 175.05 0.58 -21.95 0.58 21.95
110.83 0.85 1 107.72 1.04 -2.28 1.04 2.28
112.81 0.96 1 83.75 1.30 -4.25 1.30 4.25
115.28 1.12 1 47.84 2.25 -3.16 2.25 3.16
120.78 1.55 1 22.72 4.27 -4.28 4.27 4.28
118.12 1.13 1 27.79 5.02 4.79 5.02 4.79
116.15 0.82 1 47.12 2.82 6.12 2.82 6.12
117.57 0.88 1 87.78 1.29 -2.22 1.29 2.22
115.88 0.62 1 120.02 1.09 13.02 1.09 13.02
113.73 0.35 1 195.19 0.68 23.19 0.68 23.19
113.64 0.30 1 220.26 0.54 4.26 0.54 4.26
114.33 0.34 1 214.40 0.54 -3.60 0.54 3.60
114.85 0.36 1 191.49 0.61 -1.51 0.61 1.51
116.67 0.51 1 112.83 0.98 -7.17 0.98 7.17
119.94 0.78 1 88.58 1.19 -10.42 1.19 10.42
124.35 1.14 1 51.29 2.01 -7.71 2.01 7.71
133.25 1.92 1 25.21 3.60 -7.79 3.60 7.79
141.68 2.57 1 29.82 3.22 -7.18 3.22 7.18
145.91 2.74 1 55.78 2.02 -3.22 2.02 3.22
144.14 2.29 1 112.00 1.26 17.00 1.26 17.00
142.86 1.93 1 145.73 0.94 17.73 0.94 17.73
140.30 1.48 1 237.86 0.60 36.86 0.60 36.86
137.12 1.01 1 272.89 0.53 44.89 0.53 44.89
2 262.53
3 234.36
4 139.65
5 109.47
6 62.26
7 30.32
8 33.22
9 57.07
10 108.18
11 144.63
12 238.99
256.73
 MAPE MSE
E. % 1 E. % 2 E. % 3 E. % 4 Et^1 Et^2
13%
19% 11% 100
6% 4% 9
25% 25% 26% 100 100
15% 13% 19% 15% 72.25 53.78
9% 9% 4% 7% 23.04 21.78
24% 24% 22% 22% 256 256
13% 2% 2% 7% 59.51 1.78
11% 25% 24% 19% 27.56 144
2% 7% 1% 0% 1.78 16
15% 17% 20% 18% 46.24 64
7% 12% 12% 8% 14.58 44.44
1% 0% 2% 2% 0.25 0
31% 28% 30% 32% 155.29 128.44
23% 17% 10% 16% 91.61 53.78
34% 18% 18% 23% 167.27 44.44
4% 17% 15% 8% 4.52 64
14% 3% 0% 3% 36 1.78
6% 18% 18% 15% 11.11 93.44
14% 17% 16% 18% 66.55 93.44
68% 72% 77% 68% 410.06 469.44
12% 16% 26% 21% 45.08 81
20% 23% 18% 23% 153.99 196
14% 12% 23% 18% 37.58 28.44
 MSE
Et^1 Et^2

162057.86 162057.86
214094.96 139980.63
31384.31 126794.63
100499.35 187608.91
208736.10 236313.19
38705.29 14109.60
18658.67 508.00
5845.65 3014.89
7002.84 46555.54
1920.44 19639.05
10808.24 31270.37
69750.16 91599.15

MAPE MSE
E. % 1 E. % 2 Et^1 Et^2
 0% 5% 0.31 100.79
0% 3% 0.31 27.90
0% 3% 0.41 29.13
1% 0% 1.11 0.07
2% 9% 2.19 49.00
7% 17% 8.13 43.61
66% 65% 73.59 71.45
28% 7% 31.26 1.86
8% 4% 9.18 2.09
2% 9% 2.37 41.73
1% 18% 1.09 363.03
0% 21% 0.35 1585.91
0% 19% 0.25 1874.64
0% 12% 0.27 697.94
0% 11% 0.33 481.81
1% 2% 1.08 5.20
1% 5% 1.70 18.04
4% 6% 5.07 9.98
16% 16% 18.20 18.32
22% 21% 25.22 22.90
7% 15% 7.98 37.51
1% 2% 1.66 4.91
1% 12% 1.18 169.46
0% 13% 0.46 537.93
0% 2% 0.29 18.16
0% 2% 0.29 12.94
0% 1% 0.37 2.28
1% 6% 0.97 51.40
1% 11% 1.43 108.53
3% 13% 4.04 59.47
11% 24% 12.97 60.73
9% 19% 10.37 51.49
3% 5% 4.10 10.34
1% 18% 1.59 289.04
1% 14% 0.88 314.37
0% 18% 0.36 1358.67
0% 20% 0.28 2015.38
MSE
Et^3 Et^4
34.52
34.66
4.50
110.57
108.16 74.64
4.84 16.38
213.16 220.03
1.00 19.21
134.56 79.77
0.36 0.06
84.64 66.86
43.56 18.29
0.64 1.01
139.24 161.41
17.64 47.52
49.00 77.88
54.76 14.61
0.00 1.75
92.16 65.17
86.49 113.45
538.24 422.07
207.36 135.00
123.21 199.75
100.00 65.72