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Fórmula
𝑇_𝑐=4(𝐿/√𝑆)^077
s 4.69
L S Tc
23.60 0.05 148.18 Minutos
Tiempo de concentracion 2.47 Horas
1
A DE KIRPICH
PERIDO DE RETORNO Y RIESGO DE FALLA
DE FALLA
AÑO
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
ENE
90.7
67.8
117.1
104.0
98.7
155.7
100.7
106.4
190.3
210.4
20.6
136.2
56.5
126.7
116.1
123.1
132.6
84.5
37.9
158.8
118.5
105.8
114.2
74.4
73.9
90.1
166.0
74.5
112.3
107.1
148.7
135.9
89.7
243.0
46.8
67.2
93.8
129.2
102.8
139.8
129.90
292.67
80.17
FEB
80.1
105.5
83.8
137.4
108.9
97.2
167.3
163.6
99.2
237.1
55.7
132.2
68.7
302.1
166.7
27.4
306.7
79.3
45.1
118.6
110.4
159.7
82.4
77.7
40.5
111.0
117.9
105.9
107.0
176.6
135.3
236.4
165.7
110.6
68.9
100.1
104.4
102.4
91.4
69.0
215.90
120.83
182.86
MAR
142.6
158.6
148.0
292.9
151.7
178.8
143.6
181.5
136.5
229.8
78.6
258.7
105.3
171.2
122.6
260.4
171.8
157.8
82.6
123.2
112.0
144.2
126.0
129.0
136.4
216.1
162.7
157.8
162.2
91.9
226.2
126.7
133.6
230.0
146.5
106.2
128.4
149.9
155.0
145.2
191.77
178.97
249.43
ESTACIÓN METEOROLÓGICA
ABR
90.8
111.6
134.7
107.0
119.3
133.5
112.5
128.8
81.1
69.0
59.9
60.1
47.5
54.6
143.7
165.4
162.1
80.0
175.6
143.6
154.4
144.9
78.7
99.6
74.6
125.7
177.8
106.2
122.9
86.8
136.2
106.7
115.9
99.9
121.7
70.5
92.6
110.5
120.8
155.2
160.51
127.63
143.18
MAY
0.73685
77.3
63.1
78.3
59.9
59.2
67.1
55.5
89.5
90.6
41.3
106.2
26.4
11.2
23.8
61.9
91.1
84.2
72.6
43.8
72.7
69.9
65.6
69.5
60.8
64.3
74.2
76.6
72.0
67.3
27.5
31.7
87.0
65.6
77.9
37.3
49.7
74.8
72.4
64.4
64.2
36.77
68.35
28.99
MAX
N
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
Año
34.34
170.87
23.00
93.29
288.62
134.92
293
1976 ENE
1977 FEB
1978 MAY
1979 MAR
1980 OCT
1981 FEB
1982 OCT
1983 MAR
1984 FEB
1985 MAR
1986 ABR
1987 ENE
1988 ABR
1989 FEB
1990 OCT
1991 DIC
1992 MAR
1993 MAR
1994 DIC
1995 MAR
1996 MAR
69.97
169.90
89.73
57.66
98.47
138.16
307
max.precip
1968 DIC
1969 DIC
1970 OCT
1971 MAR
1972 MAR
1973 MAR
1974 FEB
1975 MAR
106.09
155.65
183.99
155.32
315.35
192.74
Xi
315
175.80
232.70
168.50
292.90
151.70
178.80
167.30
181.50
190.30
237.12
106.25
258.66
211.20
302.06
202.13
260.40
306.70
157.80
175.60
158.80
154.40
159.70
158.00
155.00
136.40
216.10
227.00
157.80
162.20
71.75
74.99
64.79
58.15
108.84
94.75
178
(Xi-X)^2
517.34
1166.56
902.70
8902.86
2194.46
389.87
976.25
290.53
67.98
1487.78
8518.54
3613.59
160.21
10716.34
12.87
3826.04
11697.50
1660.16
526.47
1579.67
1948.78
1508.94
1643.90
1896.17
3862.00
308.18
809.69
1660.16
1320.96
03.76
9.72
57.98
51.99
47.29
122.77
11.34
123
Años
2
5
10
25
50
75
100
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
x
i 1
suma
YT
2000 DIC
2001 ENE
2002 NOV
2003 DIC
2004 MAR
2005 DIC
2006 MAR
2007 NOV
2008 FEB
2009 ENE
2010 MAR
2011 DIC
2012 ENE
2013 MAR
2014 DIC
2015 MAR
2016 MAR
x
n 1
6
x
*s
u x 0.5772 *
Perido
Retorno
n
x
0.3665
1.4999
2.2504
3.1985
3.9019
4.3108
4.6001
i
2
198.55
(mm)
XT
51.18
39.90
175.51
190.14
235.37
265.31
303.15
331.22
347.53
359.08
235.70
243.00
161.80
148.20
128.40
200.10
155.00
160.60
215.90
292.67
249.43
130.06
170.87
183.99
189.18
315.35
192.74
9728.71
Ocurrencia
F(xT)
0.195*mL
1380.49
1976.25
1349.97
2534.62
4920.32
2.42
1896.17
1439.82
301.17
8859.67
2588.89
4690.48
765.73
211.78
87.79
13642.45
33.72
125724.62
Variable
Reducida
Precip Prob.de Correcion
intervalo fijo
XT
0.500 214.85569099
0.800 265.96350678
0.900 299.80132787
0.960 342.55550451
0.980 374.27299511
0.987 392.708410
0.990 405.75628874
500
0.30
Tiempo de
Duración
24 hr
18 hr
12 hr
8 hr
6 hr
5 hr
4 hr
3 hr
2 hr
1 hr
Hr
24 hr
18 hr
12 hr
8 hr
6 hr
5 hr
4 hr
3 hr
2 hr
1 hr
I
6.2136
2
0.39
Cociente
X24
X18 = 91%
X12 = 80%
X8 = 68%
X6 = 61%
X5 = 57%
X4 = 52%
X3 = 46%
X2 = 39%
X1 = 30%
min
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
P mm
3
423.46
0.46
2 años
214.8557
195.5187
171.8846
146.1019
131.0620
122.4677
111.7250
98.8336
83.7937
64.4567
t duración hr.
Tiempo de duración
2 años
8.9523
10.8621
14.3237
18.2627
21.8437
24.4935
27.9312
32.9445
41.8969
64.4567
4
0.52
5 años
0.998 478.50937415
265.9635
242.0268
212.7708
180.8552
162.2377
151.5992
138.3010
122.3432
103.7258
79.7891
11.0818
13.4459
17.7309
22.6069
27.0396
30.3198
34.5753
40.7811
51.8629
79.7891
5
0.57
10 años
299.8013
272.8192
239.8411
203.8649
182.8788
170.8868
155.8967
137.9086
116.9225
89.9404
12.4917
15.1566
19.9868
25.4831
30.4798
34.1774
38.9742
45.9695
58.4613
89.9404
Lm
INICIAMOS EL CALCULO PARA INTENSIDADES, EL CUADRO LINEAS ABAJO ES DEL MANUAL DE CARRETERAS P
1
CALCULO DE INTENSIDADES, TODO LO INIDCADO ES BAJO EL REGALMENTO
Duraciones, en horas
6
0.61
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
Ln (A) =
Nº
1
2
3
I=
t=
T=
a,b,c =
De donde:
Nº x
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
4980
6.6998
x
1440
1080
720
y
8.9523
10.8621
14.3237
18.2627
21.8437
24.4935
27.9312
32.9445
41.8969
64.4567
265.9675
y
11.0818
13.4459
17.7309
I
A=
a *T b
Intensidad (mm/hr)
tc
ln x
7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875
4.0943
58.1555
812.2674
ln x
7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
t0.1934*
CONTINUAMOS CON EL CALCLUO DE INTENSIDADES , A PARTIR DE CURVAS IDF, SEGUN MANUAL DE HIDROL
QUE ES LA NORMA QUE RIGE EL CALAULO DE INTENISDADES EN BASE A PR
La representación matemática de las curvas Intensidad - Duración - Período de retorno, Sg. Bernard es:
I
d a *T b
ln y
2.1919
2.3853
2.6619
2.9049
3.0839
3.1984
3.3297
3.4948
3.7352
4.1660
31.1521
2.4053
2.5987
2.8753
d
tc
B=
I d
18.2430
18.2491
18.1485
17.8823
17.0570
*
ln x*ln y
15.9405
16.6605
17.5134
17.9340
18.1522
175.7806
-0.6164
t c
Ln (A) =
Nº
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
Ln (A) =
Nº
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
Ln (A) =
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
4980
6.9132
x
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
4980
7.0330
x
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
4980
7.1663
22.6069
27.0396
30.3198
34.5753
40.7811
51.8629
79.7891
329.2333
y
12.4917
15.1566
19.9868
25.4831
30.4798
34.1774
38.9742
45.9695
58.4613
89.9404
371.1207
y
14.2731
17.3181
22.8370
29.1172
34.8265
39.0513
44.5322
52.5252
66.7983
102.7667
424.0457
A=
A=
A=
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875
4.0943
58.1555
1005.4817
ln x
7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875
4.0943
58.1555
1133.4065
ln x
7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875
4.0943
58.1555
1295.0397
tc0.3
3.1183
3.2973
3.4118
3.5431
3.7082
3.9486
4.3794
33.2860
ln y
2.5251
2.7184
2.9951
3.2380
3.4171
3.5316
3.6629
3.8280
4.0684
4.4991
34.4836
ln y
2.6584
2.8518
3.1284
3.3713
3.5504
3.6649
3.7962
3.9613
4.2017
4.6325
35.8167
B=
B=
B=
19.2514
19.4083
19.4602
19.4187
19.2566
18.9039
17.9307
188.1905
-0.6164
-0.6164
-0.6164
Nº
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
Ln (A) =
Nº
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
Ln (A) =
Nº
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
x
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
4980
7.2548
x
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
4980
7.3029
x
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
y
15.5947
18.9216
24.9515
31.8132
38.0511
42.6671
48.6555
57.3885
72.9832
112.2819
463.3084
y
16.3629
19.8536
26.1806
33.3802
39.9254
44.7688
51.0521
60.2153
76.5781
117.8125
486.1294
y
16.9065
20.5132
27.0504
34.4893
41.2519
46.2562
52.7483
62.2160
79.1225
A=
A=
ln x
7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875
4.0943
58.1555
1414.9485
ln x
7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875
4.0943
58.1555
1484.6441
ln x
7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875
c0.3815/4
Periodo de retorno para T = 50 años
ln y
2.7469
2.9403
3.2169
3.4599
3.6389
3.7534
3.8848
4.0498
4.2902
4.7210
36.7023
ln y
2.7950
2.9884
3.2650
3.5080
3.6870
3.8015
3.9328
4.0979
4.3383
4.7691
37.1831
2.8277
3.0211
3.2977
3.5406
3.7197
3.8342
3.9655
4.1306
4.3710
B=
B=
ln x*ln y
19.9768
20.5372
21.1650
21.3606
21.4191
21.4087
21.2910
21.0307
20.5394
19.3295
208.0580
-0.6164
-0.6164
Ln (A) =
Nº
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
Ln (A) =
Periodo de
60
4980
7.3356
x
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
4980
7.5005
Retorno (años)
75
2
5
10
25
50
100
500
Promedio =
121.7269
502.2812
y
19.9379
24.1913
31.9006
40.6733
48.6485
54.5501
62.2062
73.3714
93.3093
143.5528
592.3414
A=
A=
4.0943
58.1555
1533.9719
ln x
7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875
4.0943
58.1555
1809.0168
regresión (d)
812.26735989936
1005.48174675270
1133.40648298820
1295.03972634357
1414.94849968546
1484.64405032238
1533.97188546721
1809.01676016207
1311.09706395262
4.8018
37.5099
ln y
2.9926
3.1860
3.4626
3.7056
3.8846
3.9991
4.1305
4.2955
4.5359
4.9667
39.1592
B=
B=
Coef. de
HS
19.6601
212.7550
-0.6164
-0.6164
En función del cambio de variable realizado, se realiza otra regresión de potencia entre las columnas del peri
d a *T b
término constante de regresión (d), para obtener valores de la ecuación:
Frecuencia
años
2
5
10
25
50
75
100
500
Donde:
5
323.23
368.37
406.67
463.47
511.64
542.12
564.83
710.64
Nº
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
8
Ln (A) =
10
210.84
240.29
265.27
302.32
333.75
353.62
368.44
463.55
800.00
700.00
25
50
75
x
2
5
10
100
500
767
6.6715
15
164.22
187.15
206.61
235.46
259.94
275.42
286.96
361.04
y
812.2674
1005.4817
1133.4065
1295.0397
1414.9485
1484.6441
1533.9719
1809.0168
10488.7765
789.5751
FNALMENTE OBTENEMOS LAS CURVAS IDF, EN BASE A NUESTRAS PRECIPITACIONES CONFIABLES , HABIE
MODELO PROBABILISTICO, REALIZADO SU PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE. PARA EL CALCULO DE INTENSID
PERIODO DE RETORNO Y NUESTRO TIEMPO DE CONCENTRACION.
I= 789.5751
20
137.53
156.74
173.04
197.20
217.70
230.67
240.34
302.38
25
119.86
136.60
150.80
171.86
189.73
201.03
209.45
263.52
Duración en minutos
Curvas IDF
Curvas IDF
800.00
700.00
600.00
INTENSIDAD (mm/h)
f(x) = 1523.19229063827 x^-0.616386088089751
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00
0 10 20 30 40 50
METODO RACIONAL
Coeficiente de escorrentia
C= 0.24
Caudal
Q= 108.29868736 m3/seg
0.73685 0.76
METEOROLÓGICA NEGRITOS
JUN
13.6
30.2
16.5
16.5
12.5
13.9
13.5
18.2
20.5
13.0
6.3
2.9
24.5
10.7
12.6
4.5
25.6
14.5
25.6
19.8
12.7
9.7
13.2
10.6
22.4
23.5
14.6
8.7
26.3
24.9
7.8
36.9
25.3
3.7
14.3
36.1
9.7
16.4
13.5
10.6
24.94
28.18
7.45
JUL
3.2
1.6
5.2
28.5
7.8
18.6
23.5
21.4
2.8
12.1
7.1
12.1
5.2
11.7
3.4
12.3
53.7
0.0
2.3
26.8
2.0
3.0
1.5
1.8
10.2
5.6
2.5
30.7
2.1
0.3
2.1
35.8
3.4
22.5
17.3
2.9
19.1
13.8
5.4
20.6
3.73
19.92
3.56
AGO
52.4
39.9
4.0
27.9
46.0
40.2
50.0
36.0
8.5
0.2
6.2
25.4
9.1
20.6
10.7
14.5
69.8
23.2
62.8
57.3
17.6
24.9
16.5
2.1
25.7
9.0
16.4
7.5
38.7
0.0
7.6
1.9
21.7
0.0
5.5
17.2
18.2
12.3
3.7
63.5
18.95
6.32
2.11
SEP
51.6
36.2
29.5
45.5
92.8
99.6
34.1
24.4
26.0
26.1
38.5
54.4
3.7
35.6
71.1
25.3
25.9
43.6
9.8
30.7
27.6
48.1
98.7
51.9
93.7
54.6
64.0
42.1
39.2
44.4
28.8
131.8
91.7
55.7
23.6
24.0
52.0
41.6
82.6
49.1
56.20
19.11
2.92
OCT
97.3
92.9
168.5
121.6
111.8
99.3
122.3
105.5
97.9
86.5
39.5
39.5
211.2
181.2
202.1
131.3
170.1
38.4
149.7
133.7
110.9
92.6
158.0
89.4
126.1
118.5
59.4
92.0
117.0
82.3
128.9
35.1
16.0
74.8
146.3
74.5
117.6
156.4
112.2
156.8
156.30
127.14
46.48
NOV
126.3
135.3
128.4
106.8
118.5
117.3
62.6
121.2
74.2
88.8
87.5
42.6
179.8
73.9
109.0
57.4
60.0
106.3
141.4
126.7
96.4
117.7
113.6
125.4
87.0
130.3
120.7
98.5
119.2
181.2
47.1
124.7
72.1
151.3
161.8
103.3
92.5
76.4
121.3
160.6
116.94
177.19
38.06
DIC
175.8
232.7
99.7
118.0
78.4
149.3
105.8
26.0
91.0
110.5
72.6
75.5
172.8
180.3
141.6
242.2
175.5
118.8
141.1
83.3
115.9
51.6
121.6
155.0
69.1
180.9
227.0
120.0
64.4
250.3
114.7
132.8
235.7
135.9
119.9
148.2
121.3
200.1
109.1
103.2
55.72
120.18
95.88
maximo
175.80
232.70
168.50
292.90
151.70
178.80
167.30
181.50
190.30
237.12
106.25
258.66
211.20
302.06
202.13
260.40
306.70
157.80
175.60
158.80
154.40
159.70
158.00
155.00
136.40
216.10
227.00
157.80
162.20
250.30
226.20
236.40
235.70
243.00
161.80
148.20
128.40
200.10
155.00
160.60
215.90
292.67
249.43
03.76 0.76 0.65
1.13
12.15
8.58
4.86
2.59
37
13.44
0.00
0.00
3.08
7.13
3.40
54
ras
e lluvias
8
0.68
299.4184
254.5056
228.3065
213.3356
194.6220
172.1656
145.9665
112.2819
n y Frecuencia de la misma
18.9216
24.9515
31.8132
38.0511
42.6671
48.6555
57.3885
72.9832
112.2819
12
0.80
100 años
16.9065
20.5132
27.0504
34.4893
41.2519
46.2562
52.7483
62.2160
79.1225
121.7269
24
1.00
478.5094
435.4435
382.8075
325.3864
291.8907
272.7503
248.8249
220.1143
186.6187
143.5528
500 años
19.9379
24.1913
31.9006
40.6733
48.6485
54.5501
62.2062
73.3714
93.3093
143.5528
1* t0.3
SEGUN MANUAL DE HIDROLOGIA , HIDRAULICA Y DRENAJE DE CARRETERAS ,
NTENISDADES EN BASE A PRECIPITACIONES
a *T b
I d * t c
90.0000
80.0000
70.0000
60.0000
50.0000
40.0000
30.0000
0 200 400
Chart Title
600 800
Chart Title
1000 1200 1400 1600
t c0.3 38.1156
34.6462
32.5331
30.0374
26.9668
22.9201
16.7637
346.9435
100.0000
90.0000
80.0000
70.0000
60.0000
50.0000
40.0000
30.0000
20.0000
10.0000
0.0000
120.0000
100.0000
80.0000
60.0000
40.0000
20.0000
0.0000
0
0
0
200
200
200
400
400
400
600
600
600
800
Chart Title
800
Chart Title
800
1000
1000
1000
1200
1200
1200
1400
1400
1400
1600
1600
1600
0.3815/4 c0.3851/4
retorno para T = 50 años
(lnx)^2
52.8878
48.7863
43.2865
38.1156
34.6462
32.5331
30.0374
26.9668
22.9201
16.7637
346.9435
100.0000
80.0000
60.0000
40.0000
20.0000
0.0000
140.0000
120.0000
100.0000
80.0000
60.0000
40.0000
20.0000
0.0000
140.0000
120.0000
100.0000
80.0000
60.0000
40.0000
20.0000
0.0000
0
0
200
200
200
400
400
400
Chart Title
600
600
600
800
Chart Title
800
Chart Title
800
1000
1000
1000
1200
1200
1200
1400
1400
1400
1600
1600
1600
HS S 16.7637
346.9435
40.0000
20.0000
0.0000
160.0000
140.0000
120.0000
100.0000
80.0000
60.0000
40.0000
20.0000
0.0000
200
400
400 600
2000.0000
1800.0000
1600.0000
1400.0000
1200.0000
600 800
Chart Title
800
1000
1000
1200
1200
1400
1400
Chart Title
1600
1600
S
CONCENTRACION.
ln y
6.6998
6.9132
7.0330
7.1663
7.2548
7.3029
7.3356
7.5005
57.2063
107.12
122.08
134.77
153.59
169.56
179.66
187.19
235.51
Curvas IDF
B=
Regresión potencial
ln x*ln y
4.6440
11.1264
16.1940
23.0674
28.3811
31.5303
33.7818
46.6129
195.3379
0.1427
97.41
111.01
122.56
139.67
154.19
163.38
170.22
214.16
(lnx)^2
0.4805
2.5903
5.3019
10.3612
15.3039
18.6407
21.2076
38.6214
112.5074
116.70
123.65
128.83
162.09
tiempo de retorno 2
años
55
73.72
84.02
92.76
105.71
100
60
69.87
79.63
87.91
100.19
110.61
117.19
122.10
153.62
200
Chart Title
300 400
Curvas IDF
tiempo de retorno 2
años
tiempo de retorno 5
años
tiempo de retorno 10
616386088089751 años
tiempo de retorno 25
años
tiempo de retorno 50
años
tiempo de retorno 75
años
tiempo de retorno
100 años
Power (tiempo de
retorno 100 años)
tiempo de retorno
40 50 60 70 500 años
DURACION (min)
DIC #N/A
DIC
OCT
MAR
MAR
MAR
FEB
MAR
ENE
FEB
MAY
MAR
OCT
FEB
OCT
MAR
FEB
MAR
ABR
ENE
ABR
FEB
OCT
DIC
MAR
MAR
DIC
MAR
MAR
DIC
MAR
FEB
DIC
ENE
NOV
DIC
MAR
DIC
MAR
NOV
FEB
ENE
MAR
DIC
ENE
MAR
DIC
MAR
MAR
0 1400 1600
1200 1400 1600
Chart Title
Chart Title