Movimiento de mercancías en zonas

Data francas (Toneladas métricas)

Tipo Datos Año Mes t (Yt)
2005 Enero 1 38,443
2005 Febrero 2 41,591
2005 Marzo 3 55,692
2005 Abril 4 56,085
2005 Mayo 5 49,549
2005 Junio 6 73,374
2005 Julio 7 49,633
2005 Agosto 8 55,302
2005 Septiembre 9 58,399
2005 Octubre 10 59,046
2005 Noviembre 11 73,353
2005 Diciembre 12 59,152
2006 Enero 13 47,979
2006 Febrero 14 44,208
2006 Marzo 15 53,942
2006 Abril 16 43,778
2006 Mayo 17 57,254
2006 Junio 18 55,536
2006 Julio 19 52,327
2006 Agosto 20 52,960
2006 Septiembre 21 63,842
2006 Octubre 22 79,008
2006 Noviembre 23 62,535
2006 Diciembre 24 55,494
2007 Enero 25 52,290
2007 Febrero 26 45,395
2007 Marzo 27 60,399
2007 Abril 28 50,995
2007 Mayo 29 59,934
2007 Junio 30 54,055
2007 Julio 31 55,092
2007 Agosto 32 69,246
2007 Septiembre 33 54,183
2007 Octubre 34 59,561
2007 Noviembre 35 52,714
2007 Diciembre 36 48,275
2008 Enero 37 52,398
2008 Febrero 38 48,674
2008 Marzo 39 41,270
2008 Abril 40 61,939
2008 Mayo 41 57,963
 2008 Junio 42 50,577
2008 Julio 43 58,610
2008 Agosto 44 47,833
2008 Septiembre 45 52,059
2008 Octubre 46 55,132
2008 Noviembre 47 45,780
2008 Diciembre 48 42,311
2009 Enero 49 34,433
2009 Febrero 50 33,932
2009 Marzo 51 38,408
2009 Abril 52 30,103
2009 Mayo 53 34,018
2009 Junio 54 38,038
2009 Julio 55 35,001
2009 Agosto 56 36,670
2009 Septiembre 57 39,723
2009 Octubre 58 33,918
2009 Noviembre 59 30,109
2009 Diciembre 60 29,701
2010 Enero 61 29,256
2010 Febrero 62 30,022
2010 Marzo 63 45,411
2010 Abril 64 48,654
2010 Mayo 65 33,961
2010 Junio 66 38,221
2010 Julio 67 41,875
2010 Agosto 68 40,048
2010 Septiembre 69 40,962
2010 Octubre 70 70,664
2010 Noviembre 71 63,478
2010 Diciembre 72 57,916
2011 Enero 73 50,707
2011 Febrero 74 39,978
2011 Marzo 75 46,088
2011 Abril 76 41,298
2011 Mayo 77 40,365
2011 Junio 78 61,301
2011 Julio 79 50,783
2011 Agosto 80 63,041
2011 Septiembre 81 59,586
2011 Octubre 82 44,069
2011 Noviembre 83 46,865
2011 Diciembre 84 43,791
2012 Enero 85 36,875
D
A 2012 Febrero 86 37,906
T
O
S

D
D
A
T 2012 Marzo 87 37,870
O 2012 Abril 88 33,402
S
2012 Mayo 89 61,615
D 2012 Junio 90 62,069
E
2012 Julio 91 62,522
E 2012 Agosto 92 39,741
N 2012 Septiembre 93 41,997
T
R 2012 Octubre 94 43,944
E 2012 Noviembre 95 40,184
N 2012 Diciembre 96 34,265
A
M 2013 Enero 97 30,828
I 2013 Febrero 98 31,034
E 2013 Marzo 99 51,006
N
T 2013 Abril 100 41,181
O 2013 Mayo 101 29,686
2013 Junio 102 30,499
2013 Julio 103 36,237
2013 Agosto 104 33,180
2013 Septiembre 105 42,004
2013 Octubre 106 39,105
2013 Noviembre 107 37,533
2013 Diciembre 108 51,896
2014 Enero 109 37,192
2014 Febrero 110 32,982
2014 Marzo 111 36,255
2014 Abril 112 31,903
2014 Mayo 113 58,166
2014 Junio 114 38,780
2014 Julio 115 44,573
D
2014 Agosto 116 39,464
A
T 2014 Septiembre 117 47,459
O 2014 Octubre 118 38,683
S
2014 Noviembre 119 37,663
D 2014 Diciembre 120 38,131
E 2015 Enero 121 36,322
P 2015 Febrero 122 37,586
R 2015 Marzo 123 38,410
U 2015 Abril 124 40,441
E
B 2015 Mayo 125 36,548
A 2015 Junio 126 42,029
 REGRESIÓN LINEAL SIMPLE

43,078 (𝑌_𝑡
- ) ̂ 4,635 𝑒_𝑡 |𝑒_𝑡 |
4,635 𝑒_𝑡^2
21,482,543 0.1206 |𝑒_𝑡/𝑦_𝑡 |
45,609 - 4,017 4,017 16,139,676 0.0966
47,899 7,793 7,793 60,725,207 0.1399
49,961 6,125 6,125 37,510,123 0.1092
51,805 - 2,255 2,255 5,087,064 0.0455
53,441 19,933 19,933 397,333,921 0.2717
54,881 - 5,248 5,248 27,539,946 0.1057
56,134 - 832 832 692,800 0.0151
57,211 1,188 1,188 1,411,650 0.0203
58,121 925 925 856,299 0.0157
58,873 14,480 14,480 209,671,257 0.1974
59,477 - 325 325 105,533 0.0055
59,943 - 11,963 11,963 143,119,757 0.2493
60,278 - 16,071 16,071 258,263,387 0.3635
60,492 - 6,550 6,550 42,907,203 0.1214
60,593 - 16,815 16,815 282,750,494 0.3841
60,589 - 3,335 3,335 11,121,289 0.0582
60,489 - 4,953 4,953 24,529,069 0.0892
60,299 - 7,972 7,972 63,553,521 0.1524
60,028 - 7,068 7,068 49,957,204 0.1335
59,683 4,159 4,159 17,299,823 0.0652
59,270 19,738 19,738 389,579,304 0.2498
58,798 3,737 3,737 13,964,168 0.0598
58,272 - 2,778 2,778 7,716,874 0.0501
57,699 - 5,409 5,409 29,255,929 0.1034
57,085 - 11,690 11,690 136,663,498 0.2575
56,436 3,962 3,962 15,700,031 0.0656
55,759 - 4,764 4,764 22,696,458 0.0934
55,058 4,877 4,877 23,780,718 0.0814
54,338 - 283 283 79,971 0.0052
53,606 1,486 1,486 2,209,577 0.0270
52,865 16,380 16,380 268,310,736 0.2366
52,121 2,061 2,061 4,248,752 0.0380
51,378 8,183 8,183 66,954,514 0.1374
50,641 2,073 2,073 4,297,756 0.0393
49,912 - 1,637 1,637 2,680,216 0.0339
49,197 3,201 3,201 10,248,766 0.0611
48,498 176 176 30,939 0.0036
47,819 - 6,549 6,549 42,892,940 0.1587
47,163 14,775 14,775 218,311,056 0.2385
46,534 11,429 11,429 130,623,335 0.1972
45,933 4,645 4,645 21,574,849 0.0918
45,363 13,248 13,248 175,501,317 0.2260
44,826 3,007 3,007 9,040,244 0.0629
44,325 7,734 7,734 59,808,724 0.1486
43,861 11,271 11,271 127,033,854 0.2044
43,436 2,344 2,344 5,492,238 0.0512
43,052 - 740 740 547,942 0.0175
42,708 - 8,275 8,275 68,473,311 0.2403
42,407 - 8,475 8,475 71,824,388 0.2498
42,149 - 3,741 3,741 13,994,411 0.0974
41,934 - 11,831 11,831 139,965,619 0.3930
41,763 - 7,745 7,745 59,990,865 0.2277
41,636 - 3,597 3,597 12,941,684 0.0946
41,552 - 6,551 6,551 42,919,728 0.1872
41,511 - 4,841 4,841 23,438,199 0.1320
41,513 - 1,790 1,790 3,203,064 0.0451
41,557 - 7,639 7,639 58,346,743 0.2252
41,641 - 11,532 11,532 132,992,126 0.3830
41,765 - 12,064 12,064 145,537,804 0.4062
41,926 - 12,670 12,670 160,540,339 0.4331
42,124 - 12,102 12,102 146,450,794 0.4031
42,355 3,055 3,055 9,335,903 0.0673
42,619 6,035 6,035 36,422,309 0.1240
42,912 - 8,951 8,951 80,121,296 0.2636
43,233 - 5,012 5,012 25,115,186 0.1311
43,577 - 1,702 1,702 2,896,891 0.0406
43,943 - 3,895 3,895 15,167,714 0.0972
44,326 - 3,365 3,365 11,319,909 0.0821
44,724 25,940 25,940 672,886,661 0.3671
45,132 18,345 18,345 336,555,301 0.2890
45,547 12,369 12,369 152,984,824 0.2136
45,965 4,742 4,742 22,487,456 0.0935
46,381 - 6,403 6,403 40,997,707 0.1602
46,790 - 702 702 493,190 0.0152
47,188 - 5,890 5,890 34,689,289 0.1426
47,570 - 7,205 7,205 51,912,697 0.1785
47,930 13,371 13,371 178,776,314 0.2181
48,264 2,519 2,519 6,347,773 0.0496
48,564 14,477 14,477 209,569,110 0.2296
48,826 10,760 10,760 115,769,177 0.1806
49,043 - 4,974 4,974 24,744,681 0.1129
49,209 - 2,344 2,344 5,496,511 0.0500
49,317 - 5,526 5,526 30,539,861 0.1262
49,361 - 12,486 12,486 155,910,535 0.3386
49,333 - 11,427 11,427 130,571,516 0.3014
 49,226 - 11,357 11,357 128,970,356 0.2999
49,033 - 15,631 15,631 244,325,816 0.4680
48,746 12,869 12,869 165,603,666 0.2089
48,357 13,711 13,711 188,000,269 0.2209
47,858 14,664 14,664 215,031,242 0.2345
47,241 - 7,500 7,500 56,254,584 0.1887
46,497 - 4,500 4,500 20,253,627 0.1072
45,617 - 1,673 1,673 2,799,244 0.0381
44,592 - 4,408 4,408 19,429,900 0.1097
43,414 - 9,149 9,149 83,700,878 0.2670
42,072 - 11,244 11,244 126,420,241 0.3647
40,557 - 9,523 9,523 90,683,206 0.3069
38,858 12,148 12,148 147,578,175 0.2382
36,967 4,214 4,214 17,758,083 0.1023
34,872 - 5,186 5,186 26,893,034 0.1747
32,563 - 2,064 2,064 4,260,499 0.0677
30,030 6,207 6,207 38,530,971 0.1713
27,260 5,920 5,920 35,043,781 0.1784
24,244 17,759 17,759 315,397,816 0.4228
20,969 18,136 18,136 328,917,274 0.4638
17,424 20,109 20,109 404,380,262 0.5358
13,597 38,299 38,299 1,466,800,226 0.7380
9,476 27,715 27,715 768,146,989 0.7452
5,049 27,934 27,934 780,280,422 0.8469
302 35,953 35,953 1,292,640,327 0.9917
- 4,776 36,679 36,679 1,345,374,306 1.1497
- 10,199 68,365 68,365 4,673,733,437 1.1753
- 15,980 54,761 54,761 2,998,721,648 1.4121
- 22,132 66,705 66,705 4,449,589,711 1.4965
- 28,670 68,134 68,134 4,642,197,614 1.7265
- 35,606 83,065 83,065 6,899,828,847 1.7502
- 42,955 81,638 81,638 6,664,837,661 2.1104
- 50,732 88,395 88,395 7,813,616,058 2.3470
- 58,950 97,081 97,081 9,424,706,970 2.5460
- 67,625 103,947 103,947 10,804,990,992 2.8618
- 76,772 114,358 114,358 13,077,695,991 3.0426
- 86,405 124,815 124,815 15,578,850,627 3.2495
- 96,540 136,982 136,982 18,763,957,314 3.3872
- 107,194 143,741 143,741 20,661,518,778 3.9330
- 118,381 160,409 160,409 25,731,193,446 3.8166
 Serie de Tiempo

Movimiento de mercancías en z
100,000

50,000 f(x) = − 0.00921927845 x⁴ + 1.93860807265 x

+ 40297.2545192
R² = 0.347797401804386
-
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58

-50,000

-100,000

-150,000

REGRESIÓN
ENTRENAMIENTO
101

Error Medio ME - 403

Error Absoluto Medio MAE 7,509

Suma de Cuadrados del Error SSE 8,426,735,676

Suma de Cuadrados Medio del Error MSE 83,598,568

Suma de Cuadrados Medio del Error MSE 83,598,568

Desviación Típica del Error RMSE 9,143

Porcentaje de Error Absoluto Medio MAPE 16.290%

ie de Tiempo

to de mercancías en zonas francas (Toneladas métricas)

93860807265 x³ − 131.297544048 x² + 2910.65923149 x

0 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 100 103 106 109 112 115 118 121 124

REGRESIÓN
PRUEBA
25

64,486

64,650

158,965,211,966

6,308,143,332
6,308,143,332

79,424

163.4%
 Data

Tipo Datos Año Mes t

2004 Enero 1
2004 Febrero 2
2004 Marzo 3
2004 Abril 4
2004 Mayo 5
2004 Junio 6
2004 Julio 7
2004 Agosto 8
2004 Septiembre 9
2004 Octubre 10
2004 Noviembre 11
2004 Diciembre 12
2005 Enero 13
2005 Febrero 14
2005 Marzo 15
2005 Abril 16
2005 Mayo 17
2005 Junio 18
2005 Julio 19
2005 Agosto 20
2005 Septiembre 21
2005 Octubre 22
2005 Noviembre 23
2005 Diciembre 24
2006 Enero 25
2006 Febrero 26
2006 Marzo 27
2006 Abril 28
2006 Julio 31
2006 Agosto 32
2006 Septiembre 33
2006 Octubre 34
2006 Noviembre 35
2006 Diciembre 36
2007 Enero 37
2007 Febrero 38
2007 Marzo 39
2007 Abril 40
2007 Mayo 41
2007 Junio 42
2007 Julio 43
2007 Agosto 44
2007 Septiembre 45
2007 Octubre 46
2007 Noviembre 47
2007 Diciembre 48
2008 Enero 49
2008 Febrero 50
2008 Marzo 51
2008 Abril 52
2008 Mayo 53
2008 Junio 54
2008 Julio 55
2008 Agosto 56
2008 Septiembre 57
2008 Octubre 58
2008 Noviembre 59
2008 Diciembre 60
Sacrificio de ganado vacuno y porcino en 72
municipios (Kilos) REGRESIÓN LINEAL SIMPLE
Movimiento mensual 2004 - 2008
(Yt) (𝑌_𝑡 ) ̂ 𝑒_𝑡 |𝑒_𝑡 |
7997500 7528022.595 469477 469477.4053
7656316 7908837.165 -252521 252521.1648
8661075 8167650.853 493424 493424.1467
8552301 8327374.675 224926 224926.3248
8544923 8408695.938 136227 136227.0625
9400022 8430153.683 969868 969868.3168
8946441 8408217.159 538224 538223.8407
8390591 8357367.309 33224 33223.6912
8185993 8290181.287 -104188 104188.2867
8190617 8217420 -26803 26803
8301939 8148118.672 153820 153820.3283
11295325 8089680.429 3205645 3205644.571
6965900 8047972.914 -1082073 1082072.914
6843086 8027427.923 -1184342 1184341.923
7277536 8031144.063 -753608 753608.0625
7903626 8060992.435 -157366 157366.4352
8225887 8117725.348 108162 108161.6517
9360186 8201088.045 1159098 1159097.955
9231968 8309933.46 922035 922034.5403
9256849 8442340 814509 814509
9053016 8595732.349 457284 457283.6513
9247593 8767005.293 480588 480587.7072
9457457 8952650.575 504806 504806.4247
12504593 9148886.771 3355706 3355706.229
8623518 9351792.188 -728274 728274.1875
7978477 9557440.787 -1578964 1578963.787
9329542 9762041.137 -432499 432499.1373
8430158 9962078.381 -1531920 1531920.381
10066596 10506877.63 -440282 440281.6257
11063193 10664183.76 399009 399009.2432
10845592 10808681.84 36910 36910.1637
10844994 10941667.22 -96673 96673.2192
11364655 11065790.31 298865 298864.6875
15150266 11185222.74 3965043 3965043.261
9694504 11305826.53 -1611323 1611322.526
9837824 11435326.32 -1597502 1597502.317
11407682 11583484.61 -175803 175802.6057
10389419 11762280 -1372861 1372861
12581751 11986088.5 595662 595662.4973
12765791 12271867.82 493923 493923.1792
12101287 12639344.7 -538058 538057.6973
12871754 13111205.27 -239451 239451.2672
11913183 13713288.44 -1800105 1800105.437
12982137 14474782.29 -1492645 1492645.291
12338562 15428423.52 -3089862 3089861.515
15321023 16610699.85 -1289677 1289676.853
10768829 18062055.58 -7293227 7293226.579
10829711 19827100 -8997389 8997389
10590637 21954819 -11364182 11364182
12188243 24498789.48 -12310546 12310546.48
12135915 27517397.16 -15381482 15381482.16
10987509 31074056.92 -20086548 20086547.92
12018784 35237436.56 -23218653 23218652.56
11055194 40081683.44 -29026489 29026489.44
11171390 45686654.1 -34515264 34515264.1
11575449 52138147 -40562698 40562698
10166345 59528138.15 -49361793 49361793.15
14281342 67955020 -53673678 53673678

Error Medio ME

Error Absoluto Medio MAE

Suma de Cuadrados del Error SSE

Suma de Cuadrados Medio del Error

MSE

Desviación Típica del Error RMSE

Porcentaje de Error Absoluto Medio
MAPE
REGRESIÓN LINEAL SIMPLE
Paso 1 Paso 2

𝑒_𝑡^2 |𝑒_𝑡/𝑦_𝑡 | 𝑦 ̅ (𝑦_𝑡−𝑦 ̅ )

220409034087.22 0.05870302035636 10260724.068966 -2263224
63766938671.949 0.03298207189985 10260724.068966 -2604408
243467388546.623 0.05697031219566 10260724.068966 -1599649
50591851588.0349 0.02630009453596 10260724.068966 -1708423
18557812557.3789 0.01594245641535 10260724.068966 -1715801
940644551932.465 0.10317723903199 10260724.068966 -860702
289684902697.86 0.06016066508459 10260724.068966 -1314283
1103813656.95297 0.00395963659771 10260724.068966 -1870133
10855199085.4812 0.01272762958629 10260724.068966 -2074731
718400809 0.00327240304363 10260724.068966 -2070107
23660693398.3198 0.01852824120967 10260724.068966 -1958785
10276157116864 0.2838027742628 10260724.068966 1034601
1170881791861.69 0.15533856562684 10260724.068966 -3294824
1402665791049.08 0.17307131946026 10260724.068966 -3417638
567925111865.001 0.10355263958845 10260724.068966 -2983188
24764194927.5553 0.01991066318168 10260724.068966 -2357098
11698942898.4724 0.01314893478357 10260724.068966 -2034837
1343508069748.82 0.12383279084411 10260724.068966 -900538
850147693506.24 0.09987410488208 10260724.068966 -1028756
663424911081 0.08798987646876 10260724.068966 -1003875
209108337746.258 0.05051174672617 10260724.068966 -1207708
230964544311.755 0.05196895096919 10260724.068966 -1013131
254829526418.396 0.05337654981672 10260724.068966 -803267
11260764294007.2 0.26835789287984 10260724.068966 2243869
530383292178.785 0.08445209803006 10260724.068966 -1637206
2493126641288.96 0.19790290643189 10260724.068966 -2282247
187055503765.237 0.04635802457398 10260724.068966 -931182
2346780053110.42 0.18171905921574 10260724.068966 -1830566
193847909929.019 0.04373689236163 10260724.068966 -194128
159208376159.04 0.03606637280937 10260724.068966 802469
1362360184.36186 0.00340324103101 10260724.068966 584868
9345711310.49128 0.00891408692342 10260724.068966 584270
89320101434.4905 0.02629773517102 10260724.068966 1103931
15721568060015.6 0.26171443199743 10260724.068966 4889542
2596360283761.86 0.16620989854664 10260724.068966 -566220
2552013652181.27 0.16238370566499 10260724.068966 -422900
30906556170.8943 0.0154108964205 10260724.068966 1146958
1884747325321 0.1321403054396 10260724.068966 128695
354813810689.671 0.04734337035441 10260724.068966 2321027
243960106951.029 0.03869115350549 10260724.068966 2505067
 289506085623.765 0.04446284905895 10260724.068966 1840563
57336909363.6825 0.01860284676043 10260724.068966 2611030
3240379586116.85 0.15110197144625 10260724.068966 1652459
2227989965341.66 0.11497685559782 10260724.068966 2721413
9547244183732.23 0.25042314617376 10260724.068966 2077838
1663266384647.84 0.08417694123949 10260724.068966 5060299
53191153928254.5 0.67725344869901 10260724.068966 508105
80953008817321 0.83080601135155 10260724.068966 568987
129144632067740 1.07304045825573 10260724.068966 329913
151549554754423 1.01003454598009 10260724.068966 1927519
236589993386103 1.2674348953746 10260724.068966 1875191
403469407149625 1.82812573033615 10260724.068966 726785
539105826818082 1.93186370289206 10260724.068966 1758060
842537089396201 2.62559747420081 10260724.068966 794470
1.19130345618958E+15 3.08961231362436 10260724.068966 910666
1.6453324681306E+015 3.50420082960065 10260724.068966 1314725
2436586623151219 4.85541196484086 10260724.068966 -94379
2880863710047671 3.75830772766312 10260724.068966 4020618

REGRESIÓN
ENTRENAMIENTO PRUEBA
46 12

- 37,939 - 26,361,375

892,096 26,361,375

76,550,823,772,595 10590626923836800

1,649,802,236,478 912,985,079,641,106

1,284,446 30,215,643
8.608% 228.0%
 ACF

Paso 2 Paso 3

(𝑦_𝑡−𝑦 ̅ )^2 𝛾 ̂(0) 𝑘 (𝑦_(𝑡+𝑘)−𝑦 ̅ )

5122183186344.83 225226745548572 0 -2263224
6782941389692.69 225226745548572 1 -2604408
2558877143842.24 225226745548572 2 -1599649
2918709382573.56 225226745548572 3 -1708423
2943973308263.21 225226745548572 4 -1715801
740808051521.522 225226745548572 5 -860702
1727339985369.42 225226745548572 6 -1314283
3497397695638.38 225226745548572 7 -1870133
4304509008530.8 225226745548572 8 -2074731
4285343276981 225226745548572 9 -2070107
3836838946402.25 225226745548572 10 -1958785
1070399086497.42 225226745548572 11 1034601
10855865645434.5 225226745548572 12 -3294824
11680249970442.3 225226745548572 13 -3417638
8899411054818.21 225226745548572 14 -2983188
5555911306720.97 225226745548572 15 -2357098
4140561897236.18 225226745548572 16 -2034837
810968813656.142 225226745548572 17 -900538
1058339049433.38 225226745548572 18 -1028756
1007765154090.52 225226745548572 19 -1003875
1458558779844.42 225226745548572 20 -1207708
1026434562903.21 225226745548572 21 -1013131
645237984084.453 225226745548572 22 -803267
5034947779661.83 225226745548572 23 2243869
2680443712257.52 225226745548572 24 -1637206
5208651683801.69 225226745548572 25 -2282247
867100045562.901 225226745548572 26 -931182
3350972132847.87 225226745548572 27 -1830566
37685707160.2805 225226745548572 28 -194128
643956385275.626 225226745548572 29 802469
342070496752.557 225226745548572 30 584868
341371352311.04 225226745548572 31 584270
1218663500494.66 225226745548572 32 1103931
23907620295344.4 225226745548572 33 4889542
320605166499.315 225226745548572 34 -566220
178844468331.039 225226745548572 35 -422900
1315512495562.9 225226745548572 36 1146958
16562385273.9703 225226745548572 37 128695
5387166014587.35 225226745548572 38 2321027
6275360328962.52 225226745548572 39 2505067
3387671903098.25 225226745548572 40 1840563
6817477300757.94 225226745548572 41 2611030
2730620518755.63 225226745548572 42 1652459
7406088341201.7 225226745548572 43 2721413
4317410467645.66 225226745548572 44 2077838
25606625271428.7 225226745548572 45 5060299
258170620941.557 225226745548572 46 508105
323746127688.04 225226745548572 47 568987
108842542063.764 225226745548572 48 329913
3715329229496.32 225226745548572 49 1927519
3516341027833.97 225226745548572 50 1875191
528216335978.798 225226745548572 51 726785
3090774721108.97 225226745548572 52 1758060
631182471317.936 225226745548572 53 794470
829312437946.902 225226745548572 54 910666
1728501644283.63 225226745548572 55 1314725
8907408658.79781 225226745548572 56 -94379
16165368547356 225226745548572 57 4020618
 80000000

Paso 4 Paso 5
70000000
𝛾 ̂(𝑘) ACF IC Inferior IC Superior
225226745548572 1 -0.26261287 0.262612866
60000000
127450573984075 0.565876729 -0.26261287 0.262612866
118776340387964 0.527363391 -0.26261287 0.262612866
114196468856432 0.507028899 -0.26261287 0.262612866 50000000
104468397152530 0.463836552 -0.26261287 0.262612866
113557545919652 0.5041921 -0.26261287 0.262612866 40000000
106718778089059 0.473828176 -0.26261287 0.262612866
103596928986317 0.45996726 -0.26261287 0.262612866
85139965807013.8 0.378018896 -0.26261287 0.262612866 30000000
80213020539953.2 0.356143407 -0.26261287 0.262612866
90864917427209.8 0.40343751 -0.26261287 0.262612866 20000000
65268733511935.7 0.289791221 -0.26261287 0.262612866
112366451362242 0.498903676 -0.26261287 0.262612866 f(x) = 0.004152206054048 x⁶ + 0.540458622901915 x
10000000 R² = 0.672852555388012
59445955466797.1 0.263938261 -0.26261287 0.262612866
38968528979296.1 0.173019101 -0.26261287 0.262612866
27396392683845.7 0.121639162 -0.26261287 0.262612866 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
24603890367039.9 0.109240536 -0.26261287 0.262612866
8395977127787.3 0.037277887 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-1153263636463.4 -0.00512046 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-3991957572399.9 -0.01772417 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-22957223002215 -0.10192938 -0.26261287 0.262612866 Cantidad de Autocorrelacio
-15302549908282 -0.06794286 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-549232735104.04 -0.00243858 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-41803973135118 -0.18560839 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-20901063978365 -0.0928001 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-44618766323620 -0.19810599 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-49012795398542 -0.21761534 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-47605508367108 -0.21136703 -0.26261287 0.262612866
1.2
-55891811127997 -0.24815797 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-68740968206745 -0.30520784 -0.26261287 0.262612866 1
-75368797296017 -0.3346352 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-72851591824632 -0.32345888 -0.26261287 0.262612866 0.8

-74857832745579 -0.33236653 -0.26261287 0.262612866

0.6
-70586644221782 -0.31340258 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-30565787320730 -0.13571118 -0.26261287 0.262612866 0.4
-60627224174618 -0.26918306 -0.26261287 0.262612866
0.2
-64273647791231 -0.28537307 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-66798304783965 -0.29658247 -0.26261287 0.262612866 0
-60193896531283 -0.2672591 -0.26261287 0.262612866 1 2 3 4 5

-54866715253757 -0.24360657 -0.26261287 0.262612866 -0.2

-0.4
 0.2

0
1 2 3 4 5
-0.2
-53258734531210 -0.23646719 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-0.4
-53697272389477 -0.23841428 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-52902268622610 -0.23488449 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-49598621849666 -0.22021639 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-44861133925005 -0.19918209 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-42867564495205 -0.1903307 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-14358349882296 -0.06375064 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-24349207413834 -0.10810975 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-25491181133679 -0.11318008 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-25452365255992 -0.11300774 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-20395549261754 -0.09055563 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-16509062644867 -0.07329974 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-13049478224121 -0.05793929 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-13010248846103 -0.05776511 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-12203064307836 -0.05418124 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-9161293229276.4 -0.04067587 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-10257728801324 -0.04554401 -0.26261287 0.262612866
-9099559273631.6 -0.04040177 -0.26261287 0.262612866
004152206054048 x⁶ + 0.540458622901915 x⁵ − 101.346387266322 x⁴ + 4795.39528755569 x³ − 87289.227190201 x² + 610616.563357943 x + 7280887.96702117
72852555388012

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46

Parámetros para la ACF

Tamaño de la muestra n 58
Cantidad de rezagos k 57
Cantidad de Autocorrelaciones m 15

ACF
2

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
2

4
2

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
2

4
3 x + 7280887.96702117
 Indicadores de comercio exterior
Data Importación de frutas (miles de dólares)
Tipo Datos Año Trimestre t (Yt)
2001 I 1 60379
2001 II 2 57401
2001 III 3 54698
2001 IV 4 56771
2002 I 5 54260
2002 II 6 53669
2002 III 7 60583
2002 IV 8 53197
2003 I 9 62306
2003 II 10 68755
2003 III 11 83522
2003 IV 12 61208
2004 I 13 84527
2004 II 14 97733
2004 III 15 98221
2004 IV 16 74310
2005 I 17 82483
2005 II 18 80271
2005 III 19 101513
2005 IV 20 88498
2006 I 21 94249
2006 II 22 93224
2006 III 23 94378
2006 IV 24 107732
2007 I 25 121455
2007 II 26 104554
2007 III 27 148045
2007 IV 28 166967
2008 I 29 204714
2008 II 30 242003
2008 III 31 235594
2008 IV 32 172345
2009 I 33 152111
2009 II 34 153922
2009 III 35 221387
2009 IV 36 186128
2010 I 37 187203
2010 II 38 201014
2010 III 39 245116
2010 IV 40 262024
2011 I 41 308204
2011 II 42 268300
2011 III 43 286507
2011 IV 44 288539
2012 I 45 301385
2012 II 46 324618
2012 III 47 341089
2012 IV 48 354946
2013 I 49 321950
2013 II 50 282708
 REGRESIÓN LINEAL SIMPLE
Paso 1 Paso 2
(𝑌_𝑡 ) ̂ 𝑒_𝑡 |𝑒_𝑡 | 𝑒_𝑡^2 |𝑒_𝑡/𝑦_𝑡 | 𝑦 ̅ (𝑦_𝑡−𝑦 ̅ )
51125.98 9253 9253 85611310 0.15324362 158134 -97756
51956.06 5445 5445 29642907 0.094851464 158134 -100734
53007.24 1690 1690 2857469 0.03090453 158134 -103437
54279.52 2491 2491 6205211 0.043878845 158134 -101364
55772.9 -1513 1513 2288767 0.027881793 158134 -103874
57487.38 -3819 3819 14583501 0.071155926 158134 -104466
59422.96 1160 1160 1344677 0.019140854 158134 -97552
61579.64 -8382 8382 70260757 0.157567058 158134 -104937
63957.42 -1651 1651 2725586 0.026497001 158134 -95828
66556.3 2199 2199 4834365 0.031979033 158134 -89379
69376.28 14146 14146 200101394 0.169365197 158134 -74612
72417.36 -11209 11209 125641681 0.183128579 158134 -96926
75679.54 8848 8848 78281725 0.104672723 158134 -73607
79162.82 18570 18570 344850062 0.190008971 158134 -60401
82867.2 15353 15353 235726308 0.156315314 158134 -59914
86792.68 -12483 12483 155827211 0.1679874 158134 -83825
90939.26 -8456 8456 71505474 0.102518987 158134 -75651
95306.94 -15036 15036 226093396 0.18732156 158134 -77864
99895.72 1617 1617 2614494 0.015928455 158134 -56622
104705.6 -16208 16208 262696780 0.183145185 158134 -69637
109736.58 -15488 15488 239870472 0.164328329 158134 -63885
114988.66 -21764 21764 473686767 0.233462123 158134 -64910
120461.84 -26084 26084 680372233 0.276377706 158134 -63756
126156.12 -18425 18425 339466529 0.171023489 158134 -50403
132071.5 -10617 10617 112711824 0.087411714 158134 -36679
138207.98 -33654 33654 1132621797 0.321887228 158134 -53581
144565.56 3479 3479 12105425 0.023501562 158134 -10089
151144.24 15822 15822 250346127 0.094763461 158134 8832
157944.02 46770 46770 2187476989 0.228466832 158134 46580
164964.9 77038 77038 5934797305 0.318334002 158134 83868
172206.88 63387 63387 4017960097 0.269053163 158134 77460
179669.96 -7325 7325 53659435 0.042503541 158134 14210
187354.14 -35243 35243 1242055917 0.231690924 158134 -6023
195259.42 -41338 41338 1708797962 0.268562392 158134 -4212
203385.8 18001 18001 324048998 0.081311676 158134 63253
211733.28 -25606 25606 655651272 0.13757062 158134 27993
220301.86 -33099 33099 1095530430 0.176806926 158134 29069
229091.54 -28078 28078 788348377 0.139679537 158134 42880
238102.32 7014 7014 49197408 0.028615328 158134 86982
247334.2 14690 14690 215785152 0.056062181 158134 103890
256787.18 51417 51417 2643723559 0.16682813 158134 150070
266461.26 1839 1839 3381669 0.006854007 158134 110166
276356.44 10151 10151 103041921 0.035429999 158134 128373
286472.72 2066 2066 4268345 0.007160209 158134 130404
296810.1 4575 4575 20927266 0.015178715 158134 143251
307368.58 17249 17249 297534081 0.053136885 158134 166484
318148.16 22941 22941 526281242 0.067257583 158134 182955
329148.84 25797 25797 665504012 0.072679646 158134 196812
340370.62 -18421 18421 339336374 0.057217306 158134 163815
351813.5 -69106 69106 4775595127 0.244442057 158134 124574
 ACF
Paso 2 Paso 3
(𝑦_𝑡−𝑦 ̅ )^2 𝛾 ̂(0) 𝑘 (𝑦_(𝑡+𝑘)−𝑦 ̅ ) 𝛾 ̂(𝑘)
9556159822.44657 446089241121.47200 0 -97756 446089241121.5
10147266377.01740 446089241121.47200 1 -100734 418934728838.6
10699127269.83800 446089241121.47200 2 -103437 385053951839.6
10274596584.35390 446089241121.47200 3 -101364 346557022734.7
10789848956.41950 446089241121.47200 4 -103874 318576035165.3
10913079497.42090 446089241121.47200 5 -104466 289682387348.9
9516328074.23184 446089241121.47200 6 -97552 263653817995.5
11011723545.02430 446089241121.47200 7 -104937 233534289901.4
9182956853.87841 446089241121.47200 8 -95828 208783271525.2
7988643491.51402 446089241121.47200 9 -89379 183912570314.3
5566984976.20792 446089241121.47200 10 -74612 160349533585.8
9394624418.97858 446089241121.47200 11 -96926 138249763568.7
5417989674.86049 446089241121.47200 12 -73607 114272574404.5
3648313627.97845 446089241121.47200 13 -60401 96246299977.1
3589645425.33516 446089241121.47200 14 -59914 81944898493.87
7026568215.98429 446089241121.47200 15 -83825 66834216465.7
5723083138.06205 446089241121.47200 16 -75651 51325981661.96
6062754701.83173 446089241121.47200 17 -77864 36989921543.3
3206002290.20984 446089241121.47200 18 -56622 18352500791.62
4849249669.90268 446089241121.47200 19 -69637 -5439689248.23
4081344725.59525 446089241121.47200 20 -63885 -35999616757.6
4213297322.53224 446089241121.47200 21 -64910 -68391821150.4
4064870459.38127 446089241121.47200 22 -63756 -95039417079.1
2540435011.15226 446089241121.47200 23 -50403 -116662974281
1345372018.39357 446089241121.47200 24 -36679 -129151035494
2870891161.88236 446089241121.47200 25 -53581 -137883363736
101795703.02447 446089241121.47200 26 -10089 -148271681705
78010217.13230 446089241121.47200 27 8832 -154474563829
2169720677.43348 446089241121.47200 28 46580 -156413257572
7033892566.56453 446089241121.47200 29 83868 -156026548368
6000056320.19644 446089241121.47200 30 77460 -151259015772
201937434.84436 446089241121.47200 31 14210 -148304237650
36275377.78978 446089241121.47200 32 -6023 -151850129191
17744484.62715 446089241121.47200 33 -4212 -155123153166
4000933186.29931 446089241121.47200 34 63253 -158838095188
783628259.43807 446089241121.47200 35 27993 -156903239400
844996949.57821 446089241121.47200 36 29069 -160909791232
1838674421.28460 446089241121.47200 37 42880 -163556924308
7565898878.82426 446089241121.47200 38 86982 -163479829931
10793048285.57540 446089241121.47200 39 103890 -156426758415
22521035405.81970 446089241121.47200 40 150070 -149868913341
12136538914.27200 446089241121.47200 41 110166 -136442856847
16479669730.53190 446089241121.47200 42 128373 -125995223289
17005330143.30110 446089241121.47200 43 130404 -112652495533
20520706351.50100 446089241121.47200 44 143251 -99677682402.1
27716764262.44300 446089241121.47200 45 166484 -84606860071.2
33472440429.95920 446089241121.47200 46 182955 -67282174012
38734952991.13840 446089241121.47200 47 196812 -48626653743.3
26835453892.95610 446089241121.47200 48 163815 -28562616538.9
15518578926.50380 446089241121.47200 49 124574 -12177767465.3
 Paso 4 Paso 5
ACF IC Inferior IC Superior
1 -0.28284271 0.282842712
0.9391276234 -0.28284271 0.282842712 Parámetros para la ACF
0.863176952826 -0.28284271 0.282842712
0.776878235986 -0.28284271 0.282842712
0.714153146497 -0.28284271 0.282842712 Tamaño de la muestra n 50
0.649382142955 -0.28284271 0.282842712 Cantidad de rezagos k 49
0.591033797033 -0.28284271 0.282842712 Cantidad de Autocorrelaciones
m 13
0.523514732869 -0.28284271 0.282842712
0.468030277978 -0.28284271 0.282842712
0.412277529608 -0.28284271 0.282842712
0.359456177833 -0.28284271 0.282842712
0.309915036779 -0.28284271 0.282842712
0.256165277865 -0.28284271 0.282842712
0.215755707838 -0.28284271 0.282842712
0.183696200087 -0.28284271 0.282842712
0.149822524968 -0.28284271 0.282842712
0.115057654233 -0.28284271 0.282842712
0.082920452083 -0.28284271 0.282842712
0.041140872946 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.01219417271 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.08070048196 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.15331421349 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.21305023372 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.26152384664 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.2895183824 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.30909367684 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.33238120994 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.3462862351 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.35063221247 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.34976532493 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.33907792843 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.33245419073 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.34040302969 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.34774018037 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.35606798045 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.35173060665 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.36071210959 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.36664619818 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.36647337542 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.35066247736 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.33596173036 -0.28284271 0.282842712
 -0.3058644869 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.28244398581 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.25253354071 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.22344785127 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.18966352979 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.15082671315 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.10900656026 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.06402892943 -0.28284271 0.282842712
-0.02729894905 -0.28284271 0.282842712
 Serie De Tiempo
400000

350000
f(x) = 110.54997796604 x² + 498.425077632072 x + 50517.2351779367
300000 R² = 0.926432260268721

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

REGRESIÓN
ENTRENAMIENTO PRUEBA
40 10

Error Medio ME - 1,213 4,851

Error Absoluto Medio MAE 1,213 4,851

Suma de Cuadrados del Error SSE 23,438,183,592 9,379,593,596

Suma de Cuadrados Medio del Error

MSE 585,954,590 937,959,360

Desviación Típica del Error RMSE 24,206 30,626

 Desviación Típica del Error RMSE 24,206 30,626

Porcentaje de Error Absoluto Medio

MAPE 13.7% 7.3%
37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

ACF
1.2

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
-0.2

-0.4