Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
Análisis Hidrológico Estadistico
Análisis Hidrológico Estadistico
I.- DE SUPERFICIE.
A = 169.09941 Km²
P= 64.68863 Km.
P
Kc 0.2821
A1 / 2
L= 25.34214 Km.
B= 6.67 Km.
F= 0.263
Donde:
a = Lado menor del rectángulo.
b = Lado mayor del rectángulo.
Kc = Coeficiente de Gravelius.
A = Área de la cuenca
a= 6.4762666 Km
169.0994
b= 26.110631 Km
Δbi(Km) Δbi(m)
A1 = 2.75 0.425 425
A2 = 8.46 1.306 1306
A3 = 7.55 1.165 1165
A4 = 9.62 1.485 1485
A5 = 10.77 1.663 1663
Ai A6 = 12.52 1.933 1933
bi
a A7 = 13.65 2.108 2108
A8 = 17.17 2.652 2652
A9 = 25.12 3.879 3879
A10 = 39.84 6.152 6152
A11 = 6.27 0.968 968
A12 = 3.86 0.595 595
A13 = 3.33 0.515 515
A14 = 3.48 0.537 537
A15 = 4.64 0.717 717
A16 = 0.07 0.011 11
Σ = 169.10 26.11 26110.16
Hn Ho H
Sc
b b
Hn = 4100 msnm
Ho = 2700 msnm
b = 26.110631 Km
b = 26110.631 m
Sc = 5.3618008 %
C n
Sc Li
A i 1
Donde:
C = Equidistancia entre curvas de nivel.
Li = Longitud de cada curva.
A = Área de la cuenca.
C= 200 m
A = 169.09941 Km²
COTA L (m) L (Km) Sc (%)
2700 1959.15 1.959 0.2317
2800 3192.69 3.193 0.3776
2900 4322.41 4.322 0.5112
3000 5002.62 5.003 0.5917
3100 6145.20 6.145 0.7268
3200 15375.62 15.376 1.8185
3300 22948.66 22.949 2.7142
3400 27486.34 27.486 3.2509
3500 22704.40 22.704 2.6853
3600 32377.87 32.378 3.8294
3700 6256.78 6.257 0.7400
3800
3900
4000
4100
Σ = 147771.74 147.772 17.48
Sc = 17.48
n.e
Pvert
Lvert
n.e
Phoriz
Lhoriz
Donde:
n = Número de intersecciones horizontales o verticales.
e = Equidistancia entre curvas de nivel (m).
Lvert Suma de las longitudes de las verticales de la cuadricula (m).
L Suma de las longitudes de las verticales de la cuadricula (m).
horiz
n= 54
e= 200 m
Lvert 54171.98 m
Pvert 0.1993651
Pvert 19.94 %
n= 44
e= 200 m
Lhoriz
Lhoriz 51233.33 m
Phoriz 0.1717632
Phoriz 17.18 %
Pvert Phoriz
Pmedia
2
Pmedia 18.56 %
Lc = 11.322 Km..
0.38
L.L
TC C 1 / C2
S
Donde:
TC Tiempo de concentración.
LC Longitud al centroide (Km.)
C = Coeficiente de escorrentia.
L = Longitud del máximo recorrido.
S = Pendiente media del máximo recorrido.
L = 25.34214 Km.
LC 11.322 Km..
2
n
Li
S i 1
1/ 2
n
Li 2
Si
i 1
2
L
S
Li
Si1 / 2
LI
L2
L3
L4
L5
L6
L7
L8
L9
L10
L11
cotas
m
0.00
999.485
4317.00
6091.33
10153.06
13291.21
17724.00
18918.55
19719.32
20301.73
20831.50
21776.71
PENDIENTE PROMEDIO.
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
S
a
a
a
a
a
a
L
Li
Si 1 / 2
S = 7.22
C = 0.40
Si promedio
L = 25.34214
LC 11.322
TC 8.77
Cotas m.s.n.m
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2
%
cotas
3600.00
3400.00
3200.00
3000.00
2800.00
2600.00
2400.00
2200.00
2000.00
1800.00
1600.00
1400.00
Σ =
21961 .61
0
81705 .56
Km.
Km..
horas.
Ai
2.75
8.46
7.55
9.62
10.77
12.52
S
L
Li
Si1 / 2
m.s.n.m.
tendida
m
1019.30
3323.54
1785.56
4066.65
3144.51
4437.30
1211.18
825.36
615.79
566.27
966.13
21961.61
16.53
3.48
0.72
-7.74
-15.28
-24.90
-35.67
-48.19
2
Hi
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
Si
0.1962
0.0602
0.1120
0.0492
0.0636
0.0451
0.1651
0.2423
0.3248
0.3532
0.2070
H
media
(Hi)
AHi
Li
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
Hi.A
Li
Si1/ 2
2301.11
13548.34
5335.16
18337.52
12468.53
20900.82
2980.57
1676.69
1080.53
952.83
2123.45
81705.56
Hi. Ai
4129.56
14381.59
14339.10
20199.26
24764.63
31298.91
2600 a 2800 13.65 -61.84 2800 2700 36854.68
2800 a 3000 17.17 -79.01 3000 2900 49801.40
3000 a 3200 25.12 -104.13 3200 3100 77875.83
3200 a 3400 39.84 -143.98 3400 3300 131484.01
3400 a 3600 6.27 -150.24 3600 3500 21934.94
3600 a 3800 3.86 -154.10 3800 3700 14265.41
3800 a 3826 3.33 -157.43 3826 3813 12705.91
TOTAL 3.48 454035.23
ALTITUD MEDIA.
- Primero se calcula la altitud media entre curvas (C1+C2)/2.
- Luego se calcula la latitud media utilizando la suiente expresión.
1
Hm Hi. Ai
A
CURVA HIPSOMÉTRICA
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 110
ÁREA (Km2)
FRECUENCIA DE ALTITUDES
0.0020570763
0.0276532691
0.1959
0.1377965123
0.1423910269
0.191618
0.1595466033
0.0541717976
0.0372419117
0.0227657741
0.0128378214
0.0115174077
0.0044130219
Hf = 3500 m.s.n.m
N = 3
N = 3
Ni Nc
Fr
A A
Ni Nc
Fr
A A
Donde:
Número de corrientes o de cursos naturales.
A= Área de la cuenca.
N C 12
A = 169.09941 Km²
Fr 0.0709642 Rios/Km.²
Parámetro geomorfológico, tiene que ver con la permeabilidad del suelo, inclinación
del terreno y si esta o no protegida la cuenca.
Li L
D r
A A
Donde:
D = Densidad de drenaje.
A = Área de la cuenca.
N Lr= Longitud total de rios por orden.
C
Orden L (Km.)
1 29.22
2 20.89
3 12.67
Total 62.78
Lr = 62.78 Km.
A = 169.09941 Km²
D = 0.3712879 Km./Km.²
n o total.de.cauces
F
A
ORDEN # De cauces
1 7
2 4
3 1
12
n° = 12
A = 169.09941 Km²
F = 0.0709642
Se define como.
n o total.de.orden.1
Ft
A
ORDEN # De cauces
1 7
2 4
3 1
12
n° total de orden 1 = 7
A = 169.09941 Km²
Ft = 0.0413958
Los cauces de orden 1, al tener tiempos de concentración mínimos, por ser sus
cuencas vertientes pequeñas, se consideran torrentes de gran importancia en avenidas.
7 4
Rc
ni
4 1
1.75 4
ni 1 2 2
RC = 2.88
5.22 12 .67
Li 1 4.17 5.22 1.25 2.43
RL
Li 2 2
RL = 1.84
III.- DE RELIEVE.
Hm
C m tag
A
Donde:
Hm = Altura media.
A = Área de la cuenca.
Este índice combina los dos parámetros del relieve actuantes en los procesos erosivos:
la altura media, sobre la energía potencial del agua; y la inclinación característica de las
laderas de la cuenca, sobre la energía cinética del flujo de la escorrentía superficial.
Hm 2
C o Hm .tag 6 relieve..accidentado
A
Donde:
Co = Coeficiente orográfico, adimensional.
Hm = Altura media.
A = Área de la cuenca.
Hm= 130625.66 m.s.n.m
A = 169.09941 Km²
Co = 100.90551
1200
1000 f(x) = 168.8x + 49.2
800 R² = 0.9351607628
600
400
200
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
ALTITUD (m.s.n.m)
n = 6 Hallamos Tcalculado.
α = 0.05 1 Donde:
R = 0.965
n2 2 Tc = estadístico T calculado.
Tc = 7.346 TC R 2 n = número de datos.
Ttabular 1 R R = Coeficiente de correlación.
GL = 4
Tt = 2.776
Criterio de Decisión
Tc >
Tt
7.346 2.776
Aceptar HA
P = 41192.312 mm
250
200 f(x) = 31.5142857143x + 24.2
150 R² = 0.9236151758
100
50
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
PRE. PROM. ANUAL (mm)
n = 6
α = 0.05
R = 0.998
Tc = 30.43
Ttabular
GL = 4
Tt = 2.78
Criterio de Decisión
Tc > Tt
30.43 2.78
Aceptar HA
P = 41192.312 mm
P* = 7738.0905
p
q s 2.65 Log 0.46 Log C o 1.56
p*
Donde:
qs = Potencial de degradación específica,en Tn/año.
p = Módulo de precipitación anual o módulo pluviométrico.(H m de la cuenca).
p* = Precipitación del mes de máxima pluviosidad (Marzo).
Co = Coeficiente orográfico adimensional en (%).
p= 41192.312 mm
p* = 7738.0905 mm
Co = 10090.6 %
qs = 3.7661532 Tn/año
Ó SAN PABLO
ETEPEQUE
2753042.56 2.75304256
8459756.09 8.45975609
7546893.4 7.5468934
9618694.41 9.61869441
10767232.19 10.7672322
12519564.74 12.5195647
13649882.84 13.6498828
17172895.2 17.1728952
25121235.67 25.1212357
39843640.49 39.8436405
6267125.91 6.26712591
3855516.56 3.85551656
3332259.92 3.33225992
3475850.34 3.47585034
4643945.62 4.64394562
68834.71 0.06883471
80.0 90.0 100.0 110.0
0.195989224
377965123
0.1423910269
0.1916185536
0.1595466033
JEQUET./PAC
JEQUET./PAC
JEQUET./PAC
JEQUET./PAC
JEQUET./PAC
JEQUET./PAC
6 7
estadístico T calculado.
número de datos.
Coeficiente de correlación.
6 7
VI) MATERIALES Y METODOLOGIA.
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC TOTAL
1963 35.8 85.1 70.3 52.1 13.3 3.9 10.2 32.6 42.9 79.7 47 172.1 645.0
1964 30.3 50.4 357.3 56.2 12.3 6.6 1.6 23.8 12.6 52.6 58.8 115.2 777.7
1965 121.1 81.4 121.1 41.7 12.1 11.1 2.9 28 13.4 98 40.7 34.4 605.9
1966 62.7 45.9 54.5 41.9 44 0 7.5 0.7 13.1 76.8 62.7 18.7 428.5
1967 120.9 139.5 109.1 32.3 44.1 3.9 28.4 5.8 24.9 101 17.8 36.7 664.4
1968 58 81 67.7 26.2 14.9 1.6 1.6 16.2 50 66.4 54.6 70.8 509
1969 42 73.7 83.5 85.7 1.5 19.6 0.3 7.8 18.4 73.8 106.4 162 674.7
1970 71 41.8 79.9 54.5 33.8 19.9 3.2 2.5 18.2 103 51.5 54.1 533.4
1971 58.4 97.8 275.7 54.7 8 12.2 17.6 17.2 28.1 89.8 45.8 66.5 771.8
1972 55.5 67.6 11.8 76.2 18.1 4.4 3.4 20.6 31.9 31.4 66.5 50.2 437.6
1973 95.3 70.7 91.6 98.4 27.9 28.7 8.4 19.3 87.2 5.5 68.2 72.3 673.5
1974 76.8 128.2 95.2 58.5 4.6 17.3 6.5 26.4 39.7 71 55.1 84.6 663.9
1975 137.6 181.8 238.5 70.7 66.8 10 7.2 19.3 45.1 80.2 65.1 0.9 923.2
1976 130.4 62.9 81.3 55.2 43 23 0.1 4.4 12.3 32.2 71.6 44.4 560.8
1977 129.9 146.4 141.9 42.6 25.5 8 7.5 0.1 16.1 53.4 54.8 68.2 694.4
1978 12.7 34.4 48.8 37 65.6 3.9 4.4 3.8 25 24.4 54 44.8 358.8
1979 84.1 81.6 159.7 37.1 16.3 1.8 7.5 15.7 33.6 24.4 26.3 46.6 534.7
1980 34.9 42.4 65 29.3 6.9 15.1 3.2 6.7 2.3 130.4 111 106.7 553.9
1981 78.2 186.5 105.7 33.7 14.7 6.6 7.2 12.7 22 111.9 45.6 111.3 736.1
1982 71.8 102.9 75.7 88.7 38.2 7.8 2.1 6.6 43.9 124.8 67.3 87.4 717.2
1983 116.6 75.7 152.8 105.7 31.1 10.1 9.6 2.7 19.2 86.9 28.1 118.4 756.9
1984 24.7 233.6 123.8 80 69.5 25.1 23.4 18.7 36.7 68.6 97.6 104.1 905.8
1985 24.6 42.4 37.2 41.9 53 0.4 4.8 18.3 37.3 50 23.9 40.3 374.1
1986 84.4 47.7 96.8 120.2 16 0.6 1.2 14.6 1.3 43.6 66.2 51.8 544.4
1987 98 95.2 39.2 52.2 11.2 4 10.8 12.3 39.5 37.2 74.3 61.5 535.4
1988 109.7 105.5 44.8 95.6 10.6 5.4 0 0.4 32.9 69.4 65.2 63.4 602.9
1989 87 158.8 113.5 85.4 18.8 16.7 3.2 5.9 53.5 106.6 47.1 2.7 699.2
1990 101 95.3 101.8 62 28 10.7 6.8 10.3 28.7 73.3 61.2 64.2 643.3
1991 43.8 90 133.7 55.2 17.9 0.7 0.4 0.3 10.2 28.2 55.1 71.9 507.4
1992 36.5 90 96 93.8 61.1 3.3 3.9 15.1 27 20.7 48.3 146.3 642
TOTAL 2233.7 2836.2 3273.9 1864.7 828.8 282.4 194.9 368.8 867 2015.2 1737.8 2172.5 18675.9
X 74.5 94.5 109.1 62.2 27.6 9.4 6.5 12.3 28.9 67.2 57.9 72.4 622.5
S 35.5 47.5 71.3 24.8 19.6 7.8 6.5 8.9 17.3 32.4 21.1 41.6 134.9
B.- ESTACIÓN DUDOSA (CHANCAY).
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC TOTAL
1963 43.8 55.7 50.6 32.8 4.6 2.3 3.6 26.8 8.4 44.9 30.2 161.5 465.2
1964 40.5 93.6 312.6 36.0 3.8 3.5 8.0 17.9 16.0 32.6 41.5 106.7 712.7
1965 95.2 89.3 97.0 24.6 3.6 5.4 1.6 22.2 13.4 53.2 24.2 28.9 458.6
1966 59.8 78.9 33.0 23.0 22.0 0.0 6.6 0.0 21.3 41.9 42.1 15.9 344.5
1967 92.5 89.9 85.3 16.8 22.1 1.3 4.1 0.0 22.1 52.3 8.4 30.7 425.5
1968 57.2 44.6 45.7 12.8 2.8 0.3 0.0 5.1 17.5 37.5 36.0 58.6 318.1
1969 48.2 92.4 60.8 51.5 0.0 8.5 2.5 0.7 10.7 40.6 74.8 133.2 523.9
1970 64.5 37.0 57.4 31.2 15.3 8.6 7.5 0.0 8.6 53.1 33.7 44.9 361.8
1971 57.4 55.8 244.8 31.3 0.0 5.1 6.3 5.6 23.6 47.5 29.4 55.0 561.8
1972 55.7 93.6 0.0 45.3 4.9 1.6 6.8 7.3 24.1 22.5 44.9 41.7 348.4
1973 78.1 54.6 68.6 59.7 11.4 12.6 3.8 6.6 4.6 11.5 46.2 59.8 417.5
1974 59.9 47.1 65.2 25.7 0.0 6.6 10.3 7.5 11.5 33.3 25.0 58.8 350.9
1975 108.4 77.5 150.6 34.1 41.8 8.8 6.9 9.1 4.0 43.4 41.5 28.0 554.1
1976 104.3 95.4 84.2 36.0 37.6 8.2 6.4 0.0 16.5 27.4 42.5 55.4 513.9
1977 85.3 96.6 93.6 26.2 0.6 4.5 4.2 0.0 9.4 33.2 34.2 43.1 430.9
1978 34.4 71.3 33.2 24.1 45.2 2.3 3.5 0.0 23.5 21.0 41.1 30.6 330.2
1979 71.5 28.8 115.2 54.9 0.4 0.0 2.5 18.7 7.3 2.5 22.1 29.9 353.8
1980 44.8 32.1 46.0 31.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.2 10.4 59.6 130.0 116.1 474.4
1981 79.0 146.9 131.8 13.0 11.5 5.4 5.2 2.8 13.4 29.5 67.1 89.1 594.7
1982 37.7 92.6 93.1 43.1 27.8 2.2 2.6 0.0 25.2 96.2 27.8 146.2 594.5
1983 34.1 35.5 197.8 58.1 1.7 0.1 22.2 2.1 14.1 54.2 40.0 105.7 565.6
1984 27.6 44.0 145.9 52.5 69.7 5.7 3.2 23.7 12.2 10.1 57.8 51.2 503.6
1985 69.2 34.4 34.7 22.1 29.7 2.9 4.2 5.1 14.6 27.0 23.3 63.8 331
1986 84.5 75.4 82.4 87.0 36.7 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.8 15.3 32.7 97.9 515.3
1987 129 60.2 51.1 63.5 26.7 3.5 13.5 16.0 23.6 24.7 81.6 66.8 560.2
1988 95.1 85.2 22.3 119.6 6.4 8.0 0.7 0.7 8.4 37.6 41.0 59.3 484.3
1989 105.1 100.3 88.4 71.8 10.6 15.3 0.7 0.2 40.0 96.5 14.1 8.4 551.4
1990 65.7 54.9 25.8 12.6 6.6 12.8 0.7 1.6 10.6 67.4 36.3 23.7 318.7
1991 35.7 58 36.4 49.6 8.3 1.4 0 0.0 3.8 41.4 21.0 18.3 273.9
1992 48.7 20.3 35.5 29.3 42.8 2.0 7.1 9.0 3.6 18 31.4 136.7 384.4
TOTAL 2012.9 2041.9 2589.0 1220.1 494.9 141.5 144.7 191.9 423.2 1175.9 1221.9 1965.9 13623.8
X 67.10 68.06 86.30 40.67 16.50 4.72 4.82 6.40 14.11 39.20 40.73 65.53 454.13
S 25.79 27.97 67.39 23.21 17.57 4.04 4.56 7.95 8.36 21.58 22.98 41.26 105.99
1963.1 35.8
1963.2 85.1
1963.3 70.3 HIDROGRAMA
1963.3 52.1
1963.4 13.3 Precipitación (mm)
400
1963.5 3.9
1963.6 10.2 380
1963.7 32.6 360
1963.8 42.9
340
1963.8 79.7
1963.9 47 320
1964.0 172.1 300
1964.1 30.3
1964.2 50.4 280
1964.3 357.3 260
1964.3 56.2 240
1964.4 12.3
1964.5 6.6 220
1964.6 1.6 200
1964.7 23.8
180
1964.8 12.6
1964.8 52.6 160
1964.9 58.8 140
1965.0 115.2
120
1965.1 121.1
1965.2 81.4 100
1965.3 121.1 80
1965.3 41.7
60
1965.4 12.1
1965.5 11.1 40
1965.6 2.9 20
1965.7 28
0
1965.8 13.4
1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 197
1965.8 98
1965.9 40.7
1966.0 34.4
1966.1 62.7
1966.2 45.9
1966.3 54.5
1966.3 41.9
1966.4 44
1966.5 0
1966.6 7.5
1966.7 0.7
1966.8 13.1
1966.8 76.8
1966.9 62.7
1967.0 18.7
1967.1 120.9
1967.2 139.5
1967.3 109.1
1967.3 32.3
Página 23
Hidrograma Weberbauer
1967.4 44.1
1967.5 3.9
1967.6 28.4
1967.7 5.8
1967.8 24.9
1967.8 101
1967.9 17.8
1968.0 36.7
1968.1 58
1968.2 81
1968.3 67.7
1968.3 26.2
1968.4 14.9
1968.5 1.6
1968.6 1.6
1968.7 16.2
1968.8 50
1968.8 66.4
1968.9 54.6
1969.0 70.8
1969.1 42
1969.2 73.7
1969.3 83.5
1969.3 85.7
1969.4 1.5
1969.5 19.6
1969.6 0.3
1969.7 7.8
1969.8 18.4
1969.8 73.8
1969.9 106.4
1970.0 162
1970.1 71
1970.2 41.8
1970.3 79.9
1970.3 54.5
1970.4 33.8
1970.5 19.9
1970.6 3.2
1970.7 2.5
1970.8 18.2
1970.8 103
1970.9 51.5
1971.0 54.1
1971.1 58.4
1971.2 97.8
1971.3 275.7
1971.3 54.7
1971.4 8
1971.5 12.2
1971.6 17.6
1971.7 17.2
1971.8 28.1
1971.8 89.8
Página 24
Hidrograma Weberbauer
1971.9 45.8
1972.0 66.5
1972.1 55.5
1972.2 67.6
1972.3 11.8
1972.3 76.2
1972.4 18.1
1972.5 4.4
1972.6 3.4
1972.7 20.6
1972.8 31.9
1972.8 31.4
1972.9 66.5
1973.0 50.2
1973.1 95.3
1973.2 70.7
1973.2 91.6
1973.3 98.4
1973.4 27.9
1973.5 28.7
1973.6 8.4
1973.7 19.3
1973.7 87.2
1973.8 5.5
1973.9 68.2
1974.0 72.3
1974.1 76.8
1974.2 128.2
1974.2 95.2
1974.3 58.5
1974.4 4.6
1974.5 17.3
1974.6 6.5
1974.7 26.4
1974.7 39.7
1974.8 71
1974.9 55.1
1975.0 84.6
1975.1 137.6
1975.2 181.8
1975.2 238.5
1975.3 70.7
1975.4 66.8
1975.5 10
1975.6 7.2
1975.7 19.3
1975.7 45.1
1975.8 80.2
1975.9 65.1
1976.0 0.9
1976.1 130.4
1976.2 62.9
1976.2 81.3
1976.3 55.2
Página 25
Hidrograma Weberbauer
1976.4 43
1976.5 23
1976.6 0.1
1976.7 4.4
1976.7 12.3
1976.8 32.2
1976.9 71.6
1977.0 44.4
1977.1 129.9
1977.2 146.4
1977.2 141.9
1977.3 42.6
1977.4 25.5
1977.5 8
1977.6 7.5
1977.7 0.1
1977.7 16.1
1977.8 53.4
1977.9 54.8
1978.0 68.2
1978.1 12.7
1978.2 34.4
1978.2 48.8
1978.3 37
1978.4 65.6
1978.5 3.9
1978.6 4.4
1978.7 3.8
1978.7 25
1978.8 24.4
1978.9 54
1979.0 44.8
1979.1 84.1
1979.2 81.6
1979.2 159.7
1979.3 37.1
1979.4 16.3
1979.5 1.8
1979.6 7.5
1979.7 15.7
1979.7 33.6
1979.8 24.4
1979.9 26.3
1980.0 46.6
1980.1 34.9
1980.2 42.4
1980.2 65
1980.3 29.3
1980.4 6.9
1980.5 15.1
1980.6 3.2
1980.7 6.7
1980.7 2.3
1980.8 130.4
Página 26
Hidrograma Weberbauer
1980.9 111
1981.0 106.7
1981.1 78.2
1981.2 186.5
1981.2 105.7
1981.3 33.7
1981.4 14.7
1981.5 6.6
1981.6 7.2
1981.7 12.7
1981.7 22
1981.8 111.9
1981.9 45.6
1982.0 111.3
1982.1 71.8
1982.2 102.9
1982.2 75.7
1982.3 88.7
1982.4 38.2
1982.5 7.8
1982.6 2.1
1982.7 6.6
1982.7 43.9
1982.8 124.8
1982.9 67.3
1983.0 87.4
1983.1 116.6
1983.2 75.7
1983.2 152.8
1983.3 105.7
1983.4 31.1
1983.5 10.1
1983.6 9.6
1983.7 2.7
1983.7 19.2
1983.8 86.9
1983.9 28.1
1984.0 118.4
1984.1 24.7
1984.2 233.6
1984.2 123.8
1984.3 80
1984.4 69.5
1984.5 25.1
1984.6 23.4
1984.7 18.7
1984.7 36.7
1984.8 68.6
1984.9 97.6
1985.0 104.1
1985.1 24.6
1985.2 42.4
1985.2 37.2
1985.3 41.9
Página 27
Hidrograma Weberbauer
1985.4 53
1985.5 0.4
1985.6 4.8
1985.7 18.3
1985.7 37.3
1985.8 50
1985.9 23.9
1986.0 40.3
1986.1 84.4
1986.2 47.7
1986.2 96.8
1986.3 120.2
1986.4 16
1986.5 0.6
1986.6 1.2
1986.7 14.6
1986.7 1.3
1986.8 43.6
1986.9 66.2
1987.0 51.8
1987.1 98
1987.2 95.2
1987.2 39.2
1987.3 52.2
1987.4 11.2
1987.5 4
1987.6 10.8
1987.7 12.3
1987.7 39.5
1987.8 37.2
1987.9 74.3
1988.0 61.5
1988.1 109.7
1988.2 105.5
1988.2 44.8
1988.3 95.6
1988.4 10.6
1988.5 5.4
1988.6 0
1988.7 0.4
1988.7 32.9
1988.8 69.4
1988.9 65.2
1989.0 63.4
1989.1 87
1989.2 158.8
1989.2 113.5
1989.3 85.4
1989.4 18.8
1989.5 16.7
1989.6 3.2
1989.7 5.9
1989.7 53.5
1989.8 106.6
Página 28
Hidrograma Weberbauer
1989.9 47.1
1990.0 2.7
1990.1 101
1990.2 95.3
1990.2 101.8
1990.3 62
1990.4 28
1990.5 10.7
1990.6 6.8
1990.7 10.3
1990.7 28.7
1990.8 73.3
1990.9 61.2
1991.0 64.2
1991.1 43.8
1991.2 90
1991.2 133.7
1991.3 55.2
1991.4 17.9
1991.5 0.7
1991.6 0.4
1991.7 0.3
1991.7 10.2
1991.8 28.2
1991.9 55.1
1992.0 71.9
1992.1 36.5
1992.2 90
1992.2 96
1992.3 93.8
1992.4 61.1
1992.5 3.3
1992.6 3.9
1992.7 15.1
1992.7 27
1992.8 20.7
1992.9 48.3
1993.0 146.3
Página 29
Hidrograma Weberbauer
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
Tiempo (años)
Página 30
Hidrograma Weberbauer
Página 31
Hidrograma Chancay
1963.1 43.8
1963.2 55.7
1963.3 50.6
HIDROGRAMA
1963.3 32.8
1963.4 4.6
400
1963.5 2.3
1963.6 3.6 380
1963.7 26.8 360
Precipitación (mm)
Página 32
Hidrograma Chancay
1967.5 1.3
1967.6 4.1
1967.7 0
1967.8 22.1
1967.8 52.3
1967.9 8.4
1968.0 30.7
1968.1 57.2
1968.2 44.6
1968.3 45.7
1968.3 12.8
1968.4 2.8
1968.5 0.3
1968.6 0
1968.7 5.1
1968.8 17.5
1968.8 37.5
1968.9 36
1969.0 58.6
1969.1 48.2
1969.2 92.4
1969.3 60.8
1969.3 51.5
1969.4 0
1969.5 8.5
1969.6 2.5
1969.7 0.7
1969.8 10.7
1969.8 40.6
1969.9 74.8
1970.0 133.2
1970.1 64.5
1970.2 37
1970.3 57.4
1970.3 31.2
1970.4 15.3
1970.5 8.6
1970.6 7.5
1970.7 0
1970.8 8.6
1970.8 53.1
1970.9 33.7
1971.0 44.9
1971.1 57.4
1971.2 55.8
1971.3 244.8
1971.3 31.3
1971.4 0
1971.5 5.1
1971.6 6.3
1971.7 5.6
1971.8 23.6
1971.8 47.5
1971.9 29.4
Página 33
Hidrograma Chancay
1972.0 55
1972.1 55.7
1972.2 93.6
1972.3 0
1972.3 45.3
1972.4 4.9
1972.5 1.6
1972.6 6.8
1972.7 7.3
1972.8 24.1
1972.8 22.5
1972.9 44.9
1973.0 41.7
1973.1 78.1
1973.2 54.6
1973.2 68.6
1973.3 59.7
1973.4 11.4
1973.5 12.6
1973.6 3.8
1973.7 6.6
1973.7 4.6
1973.8 11.5
1973.9 46.2
1974.0 59.8
1974.1 59.9
1974.2 47.1
1974.2 65.2
1974.3 25.7
1974.4 0
1974.5 6.6
1974.6 10.3
1974.7 7.5
1974.7 11.5
1974.8 33.3
1974.9 25
1975.0 58.8
1975.1 108.4
1975.2 77.5
1975.2 150.6
1975.3 34.1
1975.4 41.8
1975.5 8.8
1975.6 6.9
1975.7 9.1
1975.7 4
1975.8 43.4
1975.9 41.5
1976.0 28
1976.1 104.3
1976.2 95.4
1976.2 84.2
1976.3 36
1976.4 37.6
Página 34
Hidrograma Chancay
1976.5 8.2
1976.6 6.4
1976.7 0
1976.7 16.5
1976.8 27.4
1976.9 42.5
1977.0 55.4
1977.1 85.3
1977.2 96.6
1977.2 93.6
1977.3 26.2
1977.4 0.6
1977.5 4.5
1977.6 4.2
1977.7 0
1977.7 9.4
1977.8 33.2
1977.9 34.2
1978.0 43.1
1978.1 34.4
1978.2 71.3
1978.2 33.2
1978.3 24.1
1978.4 45.2
1978.5 2.3
1978.6 3.5
1978.7 0
1978.7 23.5
1978.8 21
1978.9 41.1
1979.0 30.6
1979.1 71.5
1979.2 28.8
1979.2 115.2
1979.3 54.9
1979.4 0.4
1979.5 0
1979.6 2.5
1979.7 18.7
1979.7 7.3
1979.8 2.5
1979.9 22.1
1980.0 29.9
1980.1 44.8
1980.2 32.1
1980.2 46
1980.3 31.9
1980.4 0.3
1980.5 0
1980.6 0
1980.7 3.2
1980.7 10.4
1980.8 59.6
1980.9 130
Página 35
Hidrograma Chancay
1981.0 116.1
1981.1 79
1981.2 146.9
1981.2 131.8
1981.3 13
1981.4 11.5
1981.5 5.4
1981.6 5.2
1981.7 2.8
1981.7 13.4
1981.8 29.5
1981.9 67.1
1982.0 89.1
1982.1 37.7
1982.2 92.6
1982.2 93.1
1982.3 43.1
1982.4 27.8
1982.5 2.2
1982.6 2.6
1982.7 0
1982.7 25.2
1982.8 96.2
1982.9 27.8
1983.0 146.2
1983.1 34.1
1983.2 35.5
1983.2 197.8
1983.3 58.1
1983.4 1.7
1983.5 0.1
1983.6 22.2
1983.7 2.1
1983.7 14.1
1983.8 54.2
1983.9 40
1984.0 105.7
1984.1 27.6
1984.2 44
1984.2 145.9
1984.3 52.5
1984.4 69.7
1984.5 5.7
1984.6 3.2
1984.7 23.7
1984.7 12.2
1984.8 10.1
1984.9 57.8
1985.0 51.2
1985.1 69.2
1985.2 34.4
1985.2 34.7
1985.3 22.1
1985.4 29.7
Página 36
Hidrograma Chancay
1985.5 2.9
1985.6 4.2
1985.7 5.1
1985.7 14.6
1985.8 27
1985.9 23.3
1986.0 63.8
1986.1 84.5
1986.2 75.4
1986.2 82.4
1986.3 87
1986.4 36.7
1986.5 2.6
1986.6 0
1986.7 0
1986.7 0.8
1986.8 15.3
1986.9 32.7
1987.0 97.9
1987.1 129
1987.2 60.2
1987.2 51.1
1987.3 63.5
1987.4 26.7
1987.5 3.5
1987.6 13.5
1987.7 16
1987.7 23.6
1987.8 24.7
1987.9 81.6
1988.0 66.8
1988.1 95.1
1988.2 85.2
1988.2 22.3
1988.3 119.6
1988.4 6.4
1988.5 8
1988.6 0.7
1988.7 0.7
1988.7 8.4
1988.8 37.6
1988.9 41
1989.0 59.3
1989.1 105.1
1989.2 100.3
1989.2 88.4
1989.3 71.8
1989.4 10.6
1989.5 15.3
1989.6 0.7
1989.7 0.2
1989.7 40
1989.8 96.5
1989.9 14.1
Página 37
Hidrograma Chancay
1990.0 8.4
1990.1 65.7
1990.2 54.9
1990.2 25.8
1990.3 12.6
1990.4 6.6
1990.5 12.8
1990.6 0.7
1990.7 1.6
1990.7 10.6
1990.8 67.4
1990.9 36.3
1991.0 23.7
1991.1 35.7
1991.2 58
1991.2 36.4
1991.3 49.6
1991.4 8.3
1991.5 1.4
1991.6 0
1991.7 0
1991.7 3.8
1991.8 41.4
1991.9 21
1992.0 18.3
1992.1 48.7
1992.2 20.3
1992.2 35.5
1992.3 29.3
1992.4 42.8
1992.5 2
1992.6 7.1
1992.7 9
1992.7 3.6
1992.8 18
1992.9 31.4
1993.0 136.7
Página 38
Hidrograma Chancay
972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
Tiempo (años)
Página 39
Hidrograma Chancay
Página 40
AÑO
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
X
ESTACIÓN
INFORMACIÓN
1
RED HIDROMETER.
ENE
43.8
40.5
95.2
59.8
92.5
57.2
48.2
64.5
57.4
55.7
78.1
n
x
n
FEB
i
55.7
93.6
89.3
78.9
89.9
44.6
92.4
37
55.8
93.6
54.6
X = Media aritmética de la variable X
X = Valores de la variable X.
n = Numero de datos.
:PRECIPITACIÓN
:ADEFOR-CAJAMARCA
MAR
50.6
312.6
97
33
85.3
45.7
60.8
57.4
244.8
0
68.6
ABR
32.8
36
24.6
23
16.8
12.8
51.5
31.2
31.3
45.3
59.7
d) para el mes de Noviembre.
MAY
4.6
3.8
3.6
22
22.1
2.8
0
15.3
0
4.9
11.4
X=
X=
LONGITUD
ALTITUD
41.9 mm
e) para el mes de Diciembre.
69.4 mm
:CHANCAY LATITUD
JUN
2.3
3.5
5.4
0
1.3
0.3
8.5
8.6
5.1
1.6
12.6
:07°25'(S)
:78°07'(N)
:2560 m.s.n.m
JUL
3.6
8
1.6
6.6
4.1
0
2.5
7.5
6.3
6.8
3.8
AGO
26.8
17.9
22.2
0
0
5.1
0.7
0
5.6
7.3
6.6
SET
8.4
16
13.4
21.3
22.1
17.5
10.7
8.6
23.6
24.1
4.6
DEPARTAMENTO
PROVINCIA
DISTRITO
OCT
44.9
32.6
53.2
41.9
52.3
37.5
40.6
53.1
47.5
22.5
11.5
NOV
30.2
41.5
24.2
42.1
8.4
36
74.8
33.7
29.4
44.9
46.2
:CAJAMARCA
:SAN MARCOS
:ICHOCAN
DIC
161.5
106.7
28.9
15.9
30.7
58.6
133.2
44.9
55
41.7
59.8
TOTAL
465.2
712.7
458.6
344.5
425.5
318.1
523.9
361.8
561.8
348.4
417.5
1974 59.9 47.1 65.2 25.7 0 6.6 10.3 7.5 11.5 33.3 25 58.8 350.9
1975 108.4 77.5 150.6 34.1 41.8 8.8 6.9 9.1 4 43.4 41.5 28 554.1
1976 104.3 95.4 84.2 36 37.6 8.2 6.4 0 16.5 27.4 42.5 55.4 513.9
1977 85.3 96.6 93.6 26.2 0.6 4.5 4.2 0 9.4 33.2 34.2 43.1 430.9
1978 34.4 71.3 33.2 24.1 45.2 2.3 3.5 0 23.5 21 41.1 30.6 330.2
1979 71.5 28.8 115.2 54.9 0.4 0 2.5 18.7 7.3 2.5 22.1 29.9 353.8
1980 44.8 32.1 46 31.9 0.3 0 0 3.2 10.4 59.6 130 116.1 474.4
1981 79 146.9 131.8 13 11.5 5.4 5.2 2.8 13.4 29.5 67.1 89.1 594.7
1982 37.7 92.6 93.1 43.1 27.8 2.2 2.6 0 25.2 96.2 27.8 146.2 594.5
1983 34.1 35.5 197.8 58.1 1.7 0.1 22.2 2.1 14.1 54.2 40 105.7 565.6
1984 27.6 44 145.9 52.5 69.7 5.7 3.2 23.7 12.2 10.1 57.8 51.2 503.6
1985 69.2 34.4 89.66 22.1 29.7 2.9 4.2 5.1 14.6 27 23.3 63.8 386.0
1986 84.5 75.4 89.66 87 15.41 2.6 0 0 0.8 15.3 32.7 97.9 501.3
1987 129 60.2 89.66 39.88 15.41 3.5 13.5 16 23.6 24.7 81.6 66.8 563.9
1988 95.1 85.2 22.3 119.6 6.4 8 0.7 0.7 8.4 37.6 41.87 69.43 495.3
1989 105.1 100.3 88.4 71.8 10.6 15.3 0.7 0.2 40 96.5 41.87 69.43 640.2
1990 65.7 54.9 25.8 12.6 6.6 12.8 0.7 1.6 10.6 67.4 41.87 69.43 370.0
1991 35.7 58 36.4 49.6 8.3 1.4 0 0 3.8 41.4 21 18.3 273.9
1992 48.7 20.3 35.5 29.3 42.8 2 7.1 9 3.6 18 31.4 136.7 384.4
TOTAL 2012.9 2041.9 2689.8 1196.48 462.32 141.5 144.7 191.9 423.2 1175.9 1256.11 2082.78 13819.47
X 67.10 68.06 89.66 39.88 15.41 4.72 4.82 6.40 14.11 39.20 41.87 69.43 460.65
S 25.79 27.97 66.33 22.82 17.05 4.04 4.56 7.95 8.36 21.58 22.42 38.99 106.33
2.- Curva de Doble masa.
Graficamos con las precipitaciones acumuladas de cada estación tanto índice y dudosa, y de esta forma determinamos los periodos
confiable y dudoso.
ESTAC IÓ N D UD O SA (C HA N CAY).
PR O M ED IO A C U M U L A D O A N U AL
Acumulado Estación
Acumulado Estación
AÑO Índice
Dudosa (CHANCAY)
(WEBERBAWER)
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC TOTAL
1963 43.8 55.7 50.6 32.8 4.6 2.3 3.6 26.8 8.4 44.9 30.2 161.5 465.2
1964 40.5 93.6 312.6 36 3.8 3.5 8 17.9 16 32.6 41.5 106.7 712.7
1965 95.2 89.3 97 24.6 3.6 5.4 1.6 22.2 13.4 53.2 24.2 28.9 458.6
1966 59.8 78.9 33 23 22 0 6.6 0 21.3 41.9 42.1 15.9 344.5
1967 92.5 89.9 85.3 16.8 22.1 1.3 4.1 0 22.1 52.3 8.4 30.7 425.5
1968 57.2 44.6 45.7 12.8 2.8 0.3 0 5.1 17.5 37.5 36 58.6 318.1
1969 48.2 92.4 60.8 51.5 0 8.5 2.5 0.7 10.7 40.6 74.8 133.2 523.9
1970 64.5 37 57.4 31.2 15.3 8.6 7.5 0 8.6 53.1 33.7 44.9 361.8
1971 57.4 55.8 244.8 31.3 0 5.1 6.3 5.6 23.6 47.5 29.4 55 561.8
1972 55.7 93.6 0 45.3 4.9 1.6 6.8 7.3 24.1 22.5 44.9 41.7 348.4
1973 78.1 54.6 68.6 59.7 11.4 12.6 3.8 6.6 4.6 11.5 46.2 59.8 417.5
1974 59.9 47.1 65.2 25.7 0 6.6 10.3 7.5 11.5 33.3 25 58.8 350.9
1975 108.4 77.5 150.6 34.1 41.8 8.8 6.9 9.1 4 43.4 41.5 28 554.1
1976 104.3 95.4 84.2 36 37.6 8.2 6.4 0 16.5 27.4 42.5 55.4 513.9
1977 85.3 96.6 93.6 26.2 0.6 4.5 4.2 0 9.4 33.2 34.2 43.1 430.9
1978 34.4 71.3 33.2 24.1 45.2 2.3 3.5 0 23.5 21 41.1 30.6 330.2
1979 71.5 28.8 115.2 54.9 0.4 0 2.5 18.7 7.3 2.5 22.1 29.9 353.8
1980 44.8 32.1 46 31.9 0.3 0 0 3.2 10.4 59.6 130 116.1 474.4
1981 79 146.9 131.8 13 11.5 5.4 5.2 2.8 13.4 29.5 67.1 89.1 594.7
1982 37.7 92.6 93.1 43.1 27.8 2.2 2.6 0 25.2 96.2 27.8 146.2 594.5
1983 34.1 35.5 197.8 58.1 1.7 0.1 22.2 2.1 14.1 54.2 40 105.7 565.6
1984 27.6 44 145.9 52.5 69.7 5.7 3.2 23.7 12.2 10.1 57.8 51.2 503.6
1985 69.2 34.4 89.7 22.1 29.7 2.9 4.2 5.1 14.6 27 23.3 63.8 386.0
1986 84.5 75.4 89.7 87 15.4 2.6 0 0 0.8 15.3 32.7 97.9 501.3
1987 129 60.2 89.7 39.9 15.4 3.5 13.5 16 23.6 24.7 81.6 66.8 563.9
1988 95.1 85.2 22.3 119.6 6.4 8 0.7 0.7 8.4 37.6 41.9 69.4 495.3
1989 105.1 100.3 88.4 71.8 10.6 15.3 0.7 0.2 40 96.5 41.9 69.4 640.2
1990 65.7 54.9 25.8 12.6 6.6 12.8 0.7 1.6 10.6 67.4 41.9 69.4 370.0
1991 35.7 58 36.4 49.6 8.3 1.4 0 0 3.8 41.4 21 18.3 273.9
1992 48.7 20.3 35.5 29.3 42.8 2 7.1 9 3.6 18 31.4 136.7 384.4
TOTAL 2012.9 2041.9 2689.8 1196.48 462.32 141.5 144.7 191.9 423.2 1175.9 1256.11 2082.78 13819.47
X 67.10 68.06 89.66 39.88 15.41 4.72 4.82 6.40 14.11 39.20 41.87 69.43 460.65
S 25.79 27.97 66.33 22.82 17.05 4.04 4.56 7.95 8.36 21.58 22.42 38.99 106.33
I).- HP: X 1 X 2 Las medias muéstrales de los período confiable y dudoso son equivalentes
estadísticamente a un nivel de confianza de (100 - α ).
HA: X1 X 2 Las medias de los período confiable y dudoso no son equivalentes
estadísticamente a un nivel de confianza de (100 - α ).
α = 5% = 0.05
a) Numero de datos del periodo confiable desde 1963 - 1982 obtenido de la curva de doble masa.
n1 = 240
GL1 = n1 - 1 ….ec(3)
GL1 = 239
b) Numero de datos del periodo dudoso desde 1983 - 1992 obtenido de la curva de doble masa.
n2 = 120
GL2 = n2 - 1 ….ec(4)
GL1 = 119
GL = n1 + n2 - 2 ….ec(5)
GL = 358
Nivel de significación.
α = 5% = 0.05
Tt = 1.97
III) DETERMINACIÓN DEL Tcalculado (Tc).
X1 X 2 ….ec(6)
TC
Sd
1
1 1 2 ….ec(7)
S d S p
n1 n2
1
n1 1 S12 n2 1 S 22 2 ….ec(8)
Sp
n1 n2 2
2
1 n1
S
1
2
x
i
n1 1 i 1
X 1
….ec(9)
2
1 n1
S
2
2 xi X 2
n 2 1 i 1
….ec(10)
Donde:
Sd = desviación estándar de las diferencias de las medias.
Sp = desviación estándar Ponderada.
S2 = VARIANZA.
xi = Valor de la variable de X.
X = Media muestral.
S = Desviación estándar.
PERIODO PERIODO
CONFIABLE DUDOSO
X1 38.06 X2 39.03
S1 = 41.01 S2 = 37.68
n1 = 240 n2 = 120
I) HP: S12 = S22 Las varianzas muéstrales de los periodos confiable y dudoso son equivalentes
estadísticamente a un nivel de confianza de (100 - α ).
HA: S S1
2
2
2
Las varianzas muéstrales de los periodos confiable y dudoso no son equivalentes
estadísticamente a un nivel de confianza de (100 - α ).
S12
Fc
S 22
Fc = 1.18
a) Numero de datos del periodo confiable desde 1963 - 1982 obtenido de la curva de doble masa.
GLN = n1-1
GLN = 239
b) Numero de datos del periodo dudoso desde 1983 - 1992 obtenido de la curva de doble masa.
GLD = n2-1
GLD = 119
Nivel de significación.
α = 5% = 0.05
Ft = 1.31
ACEPTAMOS HIPÓTESIS PLANTEADA.
½Fc½ £ F t Aceptamos Hipótesis planteada ---- Prueba no significativa.
NO ES NECESARIO CORREGIR LA MUESTRA.
NOTA:
La eliminación de saltos significativos se hace cuando alguna o ambas pruebas
(media y/o Varianza) sale significativa.
Por lo que necesariamente se tendra que corregir los datos por saltos.
x X1
X i' i S 2 X 2 ….ec(11)
S 1
x X2
X i' i S1 X 1 ….ec(12)
S2
Donde:
xi = Dato a corregir.
Donde:
Tmp,t = proceso estocástico no estacionario, esdecir la información hidrometereológica
corregida por saltos.
t = Tiempo.
P = 1,2,3,4,……,n es el número de años del registro.
t = 1,2,3,4,……,w es el periodo básico o igual a 365, 52 ó 12, según la serie sea
diaria, semanal, mensual, respectivamente.
Am , Bm, Cm, Dcoefientes del polinomio de regresión que se calculan a partir de los datos.
1 n
t ti --ec(15) Am Tm p ,t Bm t --ec(16)
n i 1
S Tm t.Tm p ,t t.Tm p ,t
Bm R --ec(17) R --ec(18)
St S t .S Tm
Donde:
Tm p ,t promedio de la tendencia Tmp,t
t promedio del tiempo t.
STm = desviación estándar de la tendencia Tmp,t .
St = desviación estándar del tiempo t.
R = coeficiente de correlación lineal entre la variable estudio y el tiempo.
Tm p,t .t i
1 n --ec(19)
t.Tm p ,t
n i 1 i
2) Calculamos Tteórico
GL = n - 2
GL = 358
= 0.05
Tt = 1.97
3) Hallamos Tcalculado.
1
Donde:
Tc = estadístico T calculado.
n2 2
TC R 2
--ec(20) n = número de datos.
1 R R = Coeficiente de correlación.
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC TOTAL
1963 43.8 55.7 50.6 32.8 4.6 2.3 3.6 26.8 8.4 44.9 30.2 161.5 465.2
1964 40.5 93.6 312.6 36 3.8 3.5 8 17.9 16 32.6 41.5 106.7 712.7
1965 95.2 89.3 97 24.6 3.6 5.4 1.6 22.2 13.4 53.2 24.2 28.9 458.6
1966 59.8 78.9 33 23 22 0 6.6 0 21.3 41.9 42.1 15.9 344.5
1967 92.5 89.9 85.3 16.8 22.1 1.3 4.1 0 22.1 52.3 8.4 30.7 425.5
1968 57.2 44.6 45.7 12.8 2.8 0.3 0 5.1 17.5 37.5 36 58.6 318.1
1969 48.2 92.4 60.8 51.5 0 8.5 2.5 0.7 10.7 40.6 74.8 133.2 523.9
1970 64.5 37 57.4 31.2 15.3 8.6 7.5 0 8.6 53.1 33.7 44.9 361.8
1971 57.4 55.8 244.8 31.3 0 5.1 6.3 5.6 23.6 47.5 29.4 55 561.8
1972 55.7 93.6 0 45.3 4.9 1.6 6.8 7.3 24.1 22.5 44.9 41.7 348.4
1973 78.1 54.6 68.6 59.7 11.4 12.6 3.8 6.6 4.6 11.5 46.2 59.8 417.5
1974 59.9 47.1 65.2 25.7 0 6.6 10.3 7.5 11.5 33.3 25 58.8 350.9
1975 108.4 77.5 150.6 34.1 41.8 8.8 6.9 9.1 4 43.4 41.5 28 554.1
1976 104.3 95.4 84.2 36 37.6 8.2 6.4 0 16.5 27.4 42.5 55.4 513.9
1977 85.3 96.6 93.6 26.2 0.6 4.5 4.2 0 9.4 33.2 34.2 43.1 430.9
1978 34.4 71.3 33.2 24.1 45.2 2.3 3.5 0 23.5 21 41.1 30.6 330.2
1979 71.5 28.8 115.2 54.9 0.4 0 2.5 18.7 7.3 2.5 22.1 29.9 353.8
1980 44.8 32.1 46 31.9 0.3 0 0 3.2 10.4 59.6 130 116.1 474.4
1981 79 146.9 131.8 13 11.5 5.4 5.2 2.8 13.4 29.5 67.1 89.1 594.7
1982 37.7 92.6 93.1 43.1 27.8 2.2 2.6 0 25.2 96.2 27.8 146.2 594.5
1983 34.1 35.5 197.8 58.1 1.7 0.1 22.2 2.1 14.1 54.2 40 105.7 565.6
1984 27.6 44 145.9 52.5 69.7 5.7 3.2 23.7 12.2 10.1 57.8 51.2 503.6
1985 69.2 34.4 89.7 22.1 29.7 2.9 4.2 5.1 14.6 27 23.3 63.8 386.0
1986 84.5 75.4 89.7 87 15.4 2.6 0 0 0.8 15.3 32.7 97.9 501.3
1987 129 60.2 89.7 39.9 15.4 3.5 13.5 16 23.6 24.7 81.6 66.8 563.9
1988 95.1 85.2 22.3 119.6 6.4 8 0.7 0.7 8.4 37.6 41.9 69.4 495.3
1989 105.1 100.3 88.4 71.8 10.6 15.3 0.7 0.2 40 96.5 41.9 69.4 640.2
1990 65.7 54.9 25.8 12.6 6.6 12.8 0.7 1.6 10.6 67.4 41.9 69.4 370.0
1991 35.7 58 36.4 49.6 8.3 1.4 0 0 3.8 41.4 21 18.3 273.9
1992 48.7 20.3 35.5 29.3 42.8 2 7.1 9 3.6 18 31.4 136.7 384.4
TOTAL 2012.9 2041.9 2689.8 1196.48 462.32 141.5 144.7 191.9 423.2 1175.9 1256.11 2082.78 13819.47
X 67.10 68.06 89.66 39.88 15.41 4.72 4.82 6.40 14.11 39.20 41.87 69.43 460.65
S 25.79 27.97 66.33 22.82 17.05 4.04 4.56 7.95 8.36 21.58 22.42 38.99 106.33
Tm p,t i
1 1
Tm p ,t 1 n 2
2
Tm p ,t i Tm p ,t
--ec(21) --ec(22)
n S Tm
n 1 i 1
1
1 n 2
2
S Tm Tm p ,t i Tm p ,t
n 1 i 1
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC
1963 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1964 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
1965 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
1966 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
1967 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60
1968 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72
1969 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84
1970 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96
1971 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108
1972 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120
1973 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132
1974 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144
1975 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156
1976 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168
1977 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180
1978 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192
1979 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204
1980 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216
1981 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228
1982 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240
1983 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252
1984 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264
1985 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276
1986 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288
1987 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300
1988 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312
1989 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324
1990 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336
1991 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348
1992 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360
i = 1,2,3,4,------------,n = 360
1 n
t ti
n i 1
--ec(23)
t 180.5
1
1 n
ti t 2
2
St
n 1 i 1
--ec(24)
1
1 n
ti t 2
2
St
n 1 i 1
St = 104.07
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC
1963 43.8 111.4 151.8 131.2 23.0 13.8 25.2 214.4 75.6 449.0 332.2 1938.0
1964 526.5 1310.4 4689.0 576.0 64.6 63.0 152.0 358.0 336.0 717.2 954.5 2560.8
1965 2380.0 2321.8 2619.0 688.8 104.4 162.0 49.6 710.4 442.2 1808.8 847.0 1040.4
1966 2212.6 2998.2 1287.0 920.0 902.0 0.0 283.8 0.0 958.5 1927.4 1978.7 763.2
1967 4532.5 4495.0 4350.3 873.6 1171.3 70.2 225.5 0.0 1259.7 3033.4 495.6 1842.0
1968 3489.2 2765.2 2879.1 819.2 182.0 19.8 0.0 346.8 1207.5 2625.0 2556.0 4219.2
1969 3518.6 6837.6 4560.0 3914.0 0.0 663.0 197.5 56.0 866.7 3329.2 6208.4 11188.8
1970 5482.5 3182.0 4993.8 2745.6 1361.7 774.0 682.5 0.0 799.8 4991.4 3201.5 4310.4
1971 5567.8 5468.4 24235.2 3130.0 0.0 520.2 648.9 582.4 2478.0 5035.0 3145.8 5940.0
1972 6071.3 10296.0 0.0 5073.6 553.7 182.4 782.0 846.8 2819.7 2655.0 5343.1 5004.0
1973 9450.1 6661.2 8437.8 7402.8 1425.0 1587.6 482.6 844.8 593.4 1495.0 6052.2 7893.6
1974 7966.7 6311.4 8802.0 3495.2 0.0 910.8 1431.7 1050.0 1621.5 4728.6 3575.0 8467.2
1975 15718.0 11315.0 22138.2 5046.8 6228.2 1320.0 1041.9 1383.2 612.0 6683.6 6432.5 4368.0
1976 16375.1 15073.2 13387.8 5760.0 6053.6 1328.4 1043.2 0.0 2722.5 4548.4 7097.5 9307.2
1977 14415.7 16422.0 16005.6 4506.4 103.8 783.0 735.0 0.0 1663.8 5909.6 6121.8 7758.0
1978 6226.4 12976.6 6075.6 4434.4 8362.0 427.8 654.5 0.0 4441.5 3990.0 7850.1 5875.2
1979 13799.5 5587.2 22464.0 10760.4 78.8 0.0 497.5 3740.0 1467.3 505.0 4486.3 6099.6
1980 9184.0 6612.6 9522.0 6635.2 62.7 0.0 0.0 678.4 2215.2 12754.4 27950.0 25077.6
1981 17143.0 32024.2 28864.2 2860.0 2541.5 1198.8 1159.6 627.2 3015.0 6667.0 15231.7 20314.8
1982 8633.3 21298.0 21506.1 9999.2 6477.4 514.8 611.0 0.0 5972.4 22895.6 6644.2 35088.0
1983 8218.1 8591.0 48065.4 14176.4 416.5 24.6 5483.4 520.8 3510.9 13550.0 10040.0 26636.4
1984 6982.8 11176.0 37204.5 13440.0 17912.9 1470.6 828.8 6162.0 3184.2 2646.2 15201.4 13516.8
1985 18338.0 9150.4 23939.0 5922.8 7989.3 783.0 1138.2 1387.2 3985.8 7398.0 6407.5 17608.8
1986 23406.5 20961.2 25014.9 24360.0 4330.4 733.2 0.0 0.0 228.0 4375.8 9384.9 28195.2
1987 37281.0 17458.0 26090.8 11645.8 4515.3 1029.0 3982.5 4736.0 7009.2 7360.6 24398.4 20040.0
1988 28625.1 25730.4 6756.9 36358.4 1952.0 2448.0 214.9 215.6 2595.6 11656.0 13021.7 21660.9
1989 32896.3 31494.2 27846.0 22688.8 3360.2 4865.4 223.3 64.0 12840.0 31073.0 13524.1 22494.0
1990 21352.5 17897.4 8436.6 4132.8 2171.4 4224.0 231.7 531.2 3529.8 22511.6 14026.6 23327.1
1991 12030.9 19604.0 12339.6 16864.0 2830.3 478.8 0.0 0.0 1311.0 14324.4 7287.0 6368.4
1992 16996.3 7105.0 12460.5 10313.6 15108.4 708.0 2520.5 3204.0 1285.2 6444.0 11272.6 49212.0
t , Tm p ,t 6906.6
Ecuación 18.
R = -0.005
Ecuación 20.
Tc = -0.102 Tt = 1.97
Donde:
Tsp,t = Tendencia en la varianza.
t = Tiempo.
n = Longitud del registro en años.
P = 1,2,3,4,……,n es el número de años del registro.
t = 1,2,3,4,……,w es el periodo básico o igual a 365, 52 ó 12, según la serie sea
diaria, semanal, mensual, respectivamente.
As , Bs, Cs, Dcoefientes del polinomio de regresión que se calculan a partir de los datos.
1
1
2
Y p,t Y p
w 2
SP --ec(28)
w 1 1
Donde:
Sp = promedio de la tendencia Tmp,t
Yp,t = promedio del tiempo t.
YP promedio del año p.
w = desviación estándar de la tendencia Tmp,t .
p = 1,2,3,…….,n.
R = coeficiente de correlación lineal entre la variable estudio y el tiempo.
GL = n - 2
GL = 28
= 0.05
Tt = 2.05
3) Hallamos Tcalculado.
t.S p t.S P 1
R R n 2 2
--ec(29) TC --ec(30)
S t .S S p
1 R
1
2 2
R = -0.135 Tc = -0.72
Tt = 2.05
1° Seleccionar la fiunción de relacion correlativa más adecuada, simple o múltiple, del tipo lineal
o no lineal.
2° Estimacion de parámetros estadísticos que miden el grado de asociación correlativa.
3° Realizar la prueba estadística de significación de los estadisticos que miden el grado de
asociacion corrrelativa.
4° Estimacion de los parámetros de la ecuación de regresión.
5° Realizar la prueba de significación de los parámetros de regresión o definición de los límites
de confianza.
a Y bX b
y Y x X
i i
x X
2
i
n = 27 Con la ecuación.
α = 0.05 Y = 0.871X - 10.406
R = 0.901 b = 0.871
MARZO Tc = 10.408 a = -10.406
Ttabular Valores Faltantes
350
300
GL = 25 MARZO
250 f(x) = 0.8713401041x - 10.4060837292 Tt = 2.060 1985 22.01
200
R² = 0.8124703361
150
Criterio de Decisión 1986 73.94
100 Tc >Tt 1987 23.75
50
0 10.408 2.060
0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0
ESTACIÓN WEBERBAWER
Aceptar HA
COMPLETACIÓN DE DATOS
Correlación Cruzada
ABRIL 1.- CALCULO DE PARÁMETROS DE RLS MÉTODO
Año
Weberbawer( X) Chancay (Y) XY ANALÍTICO.
1963 52.1 32.8 1708.9
1964 56.2 36 2023.2
X 62.5
1965 41.7 24.6 1025.8 Y 39.9
1966 41.9 23 963.7 XY 2912.1
1967 32.3 16.8 542.6 SY 25.63
1968 26.2 12.8 335.4 SX 23.62
1969 85.7 51.5 4413.6 n = 29
1970 54.5 31.2 1700.4 α = 0.05
1971 54.7 31.3 1712.1
1972 76.2 45.3 3451.9 R = 0.693
1973 98.4 59.7 5874.5 Tc = 4.993
1974 58.5 25.7 1503.5
1975 70.7 34.1 2410.9 Ttabular
1976 55.2 36 1987.2 GL = 27
1977 42.6 26.2 1116.1 Tt = 2.052
1978 37.0 24.1 891.7
1979 37.1 54.9 2036.8
1980 29.3 31.9 934.7
1981 33.7 13 438.1 Criterio de Decisión
1982 88.7 43.1 3823.0 Tc > Tt
1983 105.7 58.1 6141.2 4.993 2.052
1984 80.0 52.5 4200.0 Aceptar HA
1985 41.9 22.1 926.0
1986 120.2 87 10457.4
1987 52.2 33.3
1988 95.6 119.6 11433.8
1989 85.4 71.8 6131.7 b = 0.638
1990 62.0 12.6 781.2 a = -0.011
1991 55.2 49.6 2737.9
1992 93.8 29.3 2748.3 Yi = a + b.Xi
n 29 29 29
X 62.5 39.9 2912.1 Y = 0.638X - 0.011
S 25.63 23.62 2794.42
2.- CALCULO DE PARÁMETROS DE RLS MÉTODO GRAFICO.
E S TA C I Ó N C H A N C AY
n = 29 Con la ecuación.
α = 0.05 Y = 0.6611X - 1.4356
R = 0.718 b = 0.6611
ABRIL Tc = 5.353 a = -1.4356
140
Ttabular Valores Faltantes
120 GL = 27 ABRIL
100
80
Tt = 2.052 1987 33.1
60 f(x) = 0.6610935443x - 1.4355878995 Criterio de Decisión
R² = 0.5149464476
40
20
Tc >Tt
0 5.353 2.052
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0
ESTACIÓN WEBERBAWER Aceptar HA
COMPLETACIÓN DE DATOS
Correlación Cruzada
MAYO 1.- CALCULO DE PARÁMETROS DE RLS MÉTODO
Año
Weberbawer( X) Chancay (Y) XY ANALÍTICO.
1963 13.3 4.6 61.2
1964 12.3 3.8 46.7 X 28.6
1965 12.1 3.6 43.6 Y 15.4
1966 44.0 22 968.0 XY 763.4
1967 44.1 22.1 974.6 SY 20.30
1968 14.9 2.8 41.7 SX 17.97
1969 1.5 0 0.0 n = 28
1970 33.8 15.3 517.1 α = 0.05
1971 8.0 0 0.0
1972 18.1 4.9 88.7 R = 0.883
1973 27.9 11.4 318.1 Tc = 9.608
1974 4.6 0 0.0
1975 66.8 41.8 2792.2 Ttabular
1976 43.0 37.6 1616.8 GL = 26
1977 25.5 0.6 15.3 Tt = 2.056
1978 65.6 45.2 2965.1
1979 16.3 0.4 6.5
1980 6.9 0.3 2.1
1981 14.7 11.5 169.1 Criterio de Decisión
1982 38.2 27.8 1062.0 Tc > Tt
1983 31.1 1.7 52.9 9.608 2.056
1984 69.5 69.7 4844.2 Aceptar HA
1985 53.0 29.7 1574.1
1986 16.0 5.5
1987 11.2 1.8
1988 10.6 6.4 67.8
1989 18.8 10.6 199.3 b = 0.782
1990 28.0 6.6 184.8 a = -6.971
1991 17.9 8.3 148.6
1992 61.1 42.8 2615.1 Yi = a + b.Xi
n 28 28 28
X 28.6 15.4 763.4 Y = 0.782X - 6.971
S 20.30 17.97 1204.92
2.- CALCULO DE PARÁMETROS DE RLS MÉTODO GRAFICO.
E S TA C I Ó N C H A N C A Y
n = 28 Con la ecuación.
α = 0.05 Y = 0.8108X - 7.8005
R = 0.916 b = 0.8108
MAYO
Tc = 11.644 a = -7.8005
80 Ttabular Valores Faltantes
70
60 GL = 26 MAYO
50
40 f(x) = 0.8107692272x - 7.8004504477 Tt = 2.056 1986 5.2
30 R² = 0.8391033502
20
Criterio de Decisión 1987 1.3
10
Tc > Tt
0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0
ESTA C IÓN W EB ER B AW ER
80
70
60
50
40 f(x) = 0.8107692272x - 7.8004504477
30 R² = 0.8391033502
20
10
0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0
COMPLETACIÓN DE DATOS
Correlación Cruzada
NOVIEMBRE 1.- CALCULO DE PARÁMETROS DE RLS MÉTODO
Año
Weberbawer( X) Chancay (Y) XY ANALÍTICO.
1963 47.0 30.2 1419.4
1964 58.8 41.5 2440.2
X 57.9
1965 40.7 24.2 984.9 Y 41.9
1966 62.7 42.1 2639.7 XY 2820.7
1967 17.8 8.4 149.5 SY 22.50
1968 54.6 36 1965.6 SX 24.09
1969 106.4 74.8 7958.7 n = 27
1970 51.5 33.7 1735.6 α = 0.05
1971 45.8 29.4 1346.5
1972 66.5 44.9 2985.9 R = 0.728
1973 68.2 46.2 3150.8 Tc = 5.316
1974 55.1 25 1377.5
1975 65.1 41.5 2701.7 Ttabular
1976 71.6 42.5 3043.0 GL = 25
1977 54.8 34.2 1874.2 Tt = 2.060
1978 54.0 41.1 2219.4
1979 26.3 22.1 581.2
1980 111.0 130 14430.0
1981 45.6 67.1 3059.8 Criterio de Decisión
1982 67.3 27.8 1870.9 Tc > Tt
1983 28.1 40 1124.0 5.316 2.060
1984 97.6 57.8 5641.3 Aceptar HA
1985 23.9 23.3 556.9
1986 66.2 32.7 2164.7
1987 74.3 81.6 6062.9
1988 65.2 47.5
1989 47.1 33.4 b = 0.780
1990 61.2 44.4 a = -3.305
1991 55.1 21 1157.1
1992 48.3 31.4 1516.6 Yi = a + b.Xi
n 27 27 27
X 57.9 41.9 2820.7 Y = 0.780X - 3.305
S 22.50 24.09 2900.85
2.- CALCULO DE PARÁMETROS DE RLS MÉTODO GRAFICO.
E S TA C I Ó N C H A N C AY
n = 27 Con la ecuación.
α = 0.05 Y = 0.8097X - 5.043
R = 0.756 b = 0.8097
NOVIEMBRE
Tc = 5.783 a = -5.0430
140 Ttabular Valores Faltantes
120
100
GL = 25 NOVIEMBRE
80 Tt = 2.060 1988 47.7
f(x) = 0.8097304243x - 5.0430112119
60 R² = 0.5722299328 Criterio de Decisión 1989 33.1
40
20
Tc > Tt 1990 44.5
0 5.783 2.060
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0
ESTACIÓN WEBERBAWER
120
100
80
f(x) = 0.8097304243x - 5.0430112119
60 R² = 0.5722299328
40
20
0
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0
ESTACIÓN WEBERBAWER Aceptar HA
COMPLETACIÓN DE DATOS
Correlación Cruzada
DICIEMBRE 1.- CALCULO DE PARÁMETROS DE RLS MÉTODO
Año
Weberbawer( X) Chancay (Y) XY ANALÍTICO.
1963 172.1 161.5 27794.2
1964 115.2 106.7 12291.8
X 75.6
1965 34.4 28.9 994.2 Y 69.4
1966 18.7 15.9 297.3 XY 6662.6
1967 36.7 30.7 1126.7 SY 42.31
1968 70.8 58.6 4148.9 SX 41.89
1969 162.0 133.2 21578.4 n = 27
1970 54.1 44.9 2429.1 α = 0.05
1971 66.5 55 3657.5
1972 50.2 41.7 2093.3 R = 0.796
1973 72.3 59.8 4323.5 Tc = 6.585
1974 84.6 58.8 4974.5
1975 0.9 28 25.2 Ttabular
1976 44.4 55.4 2459.8 GL = 25
1977 68.2 43.1 2939.4 Tt = 2.060
1978 44.8 30.6 1370.9
1979 46.6 29.9 1393.3
1980 106.7 116.1 12387.9
1981 111.3 89.1 9916.8 Criterio de Decisión
1982 87.4 146.2 12777.9 Tc > Tt
1983 118.4 105.7 12514.9 6.585 2.060
1984 104.1 51.2 5329.9 Aceptar HA
1985 40.3 63.8 2571.1
1986 51.8 97.9 5071.2
1987 61.5 66.8 4108.2
1988 63.4 59.8
1989 2.7 11.9 b = 0.788
1990 64.2 60.4 a = 9.791
1991 71.9 18.3 1315.8
1992 146.3 136.7 19999.2 Yi = a + b.Xi
n 27 27 27
X 75.6 69.4 6662.6 Y = 0.788X +9.791
S 42.31 41.89 7197.40
2.- CALCULO DE PARÁMETROS DE RLS MÉTODO GRAFICO.
ESTA C I Ó N C H A N C AY
n = 27 Con la ecuación.
α = 0.05 Y = 0.8188X +7.4975
R = 0.827 b = 0.8188
DICIEMBRE Tc = 7.356 a = 7.4975
180 Ttabular Valores Faltantes
160
140
GL = 25 DICIEMBRE
f(x) = 0.8187584385x + 7.4974635866
120
R² = 0.6840401082 Tt = 2.060 1988 59.4
100
80
60
Criterio de Decisión 1989 9.7
40
20
0
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0
ESTACIÓN WEBERBAWER
DICIEMBRE
ESTA
180
160
140
f(x) = 0.8187584385x + 7.4974635866
120
R² = 0.6840401082
100
80
60
40
20
Tc >Tt 1990 60.1
0
7.356 2.060
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0
ESTACIÓN WEBERBAWER Aceptar HA
EXTENCIÓN DE DATOS
Correlación Cruzada
ENERO 1.- CALCULO DE PARÁMETROS DE RLS MÉTODO
Año
Weberbawer( X) Chancay (Y) XY ANALÍTICO.
1963 35.8 43.8 1568.0
1964 30.3 40.5 1227.2
X 74.5
1965 121.1 95.2 11528.7 Y 67.1
1966 62.7 59.8 3749.5 XY 5661.6
1967 120.9 92.5 11183.3 SY 36.14
1968 58.0 57.2 3317.6 SX 26.23
1969 42.0 48.2 2024.4 n = 30
1970 71.0 64.5 4579.5 α = 0.05
1971 58.4 57.4 3352.2
1972 55.5 55.7 3091.4 R = 0.702
1973 95.3 78.1 7442.9 Tc = 5.222
1974 76.8 59.9 4600.3
1975 137.6 108.4 14915.8 Ttabular
1976 130.4 104.3 13600.7 GL = 28
1977 129.9 85.3 11080.5 Tt = 2.048
1978 12.7 34.4 436.9
1979 84.1 71.5 6013.2
1980 34.9 44.8 1563.5
1981 78.2 79 6177.8 Criterio de Decisión
1982 71.8 37.7 2706.9 Tc > Tt
1983 116.6 34.1 3976.1 5.222 2.048
1984 24.7 27.6 681.7 Aceptar HA
1985 24.6 69.2 1702.3
1986 84.4 84.5 7131.8
1987 98.0 129 12642.0
1988 109.7 95.1 10432.5
1989 87.0 105.1 9143.7 b = 0.510
1990 101.0 65.7 6635.7 a = 29.133
1991 43.8 35.7 1563.7
1992 36.5 48.7 1777.6 Yi = a + b.Xi
n 30 30 30
X 74.5 67.1 5661.6 Y = 0.510X+29.133
S 36.14 26.23 4292.29
2.- CALCULO DE PARÁMETROS DE RLS MÉTODO GRAFICO.
E S TA C I Ó N C H A N C AY
n = 30 Con la ecuación.
α = 0.05 Y = 0.5275X+27.824
R = 0.727 b = 0.5275
ENERO Tc = 5.597 a = 27.824
140
Ttabular
120
GL = 28
100
80
f(x) = 0.5274614968x + 27.8236418195 Tt = 2.048
R² = 0.5280088758
60
Criterio de Decisión
40
20
Tc > Tt
0
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0
ESTACIÓN WEBERBAWER
E
140
120
100
80
f(x) = 0.5274614968x + 27.8236418195
R² = 0.5280088758
60
40
20
0
5.597 2.048
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0
ESTACIÓN WEBERBAWER Aceptar HA
EXTENCIÓN DE DATOS
Correlación Cruzada
FEBRERO 1.- CALCULO DE PARÁMETROS DE RLS MÉTODO
Año
Weberbawer( X) Chancay (Y) XY ANALÍTICO.
1963 85.1 55.7 4740.1
1964 50.4 93.6 4717.4
X 94.5
1965 81.4 89.3 7269.0 Y 68.1
1966 45.9 78.9 3621.5 XY 6827.0
1967 139.5 89.9 12541.1 SY 48.30
1968 81.0 44.6 3612.6 SX 28.45
1969 73.7 92.4 6809.9 n = 30
1970 41.8 37 1546.6 α = 0.05
1971 97.8 55.8 5457.2
1972 67.6 93.6 6327.4 R = 0.285
1973 70.7 54.6 3860.2 Tc = 1.576
1974 128.2 47.1 6038.2
1975 181.8 77.5 14089.5 Ttabular
1976 62.9 95.4 6000.7 GL = 28
1977 146.4 96.6 14142.2 Tt = 2.048
1978 34.4 71.3 2452.7
1979 81.6 28.8 2350.1
1980 42.4 32.1 1361.0
1981 186.5 146.9 27396.9 Criterio de Decisión
1982 102.9 92.6 9528.5 Tc < Tt
1983 75.7 35.5 2687.4 1.576 2.048
1984 233.6 44 10278.4 Aceptar HP
1985 42.4 34.4 1458.6
1986 47.7 75.4 3596.6
1987 95.2 60.2 5731.0
1988 105.5 85.2 8988.6
1989 158.8 100.3 15927.6 b = 0.168
1990 95.3 54.9 5232.0 a = 52.168
1991 90.0 58 5220.0
1992 90.0 20.3 1827.0 Yi = a + b.Xi
n 30 30 30
X 94.5 68.1 6827.0 Y = 0.168X+52.168
S 48.30 28.45 5556.07
2.- CALCULO DE PARÁMETROS DE RLS MÉTODO GRAFICO.
ESTA C I Ó N C H A N C AY
n = 30 Con la ecuación.
α = 0.05 Y = 0.1739X+51.62
R = 0.295 b = 0.1739
FEBRERO
Tc = 1.635 a = 51.620
160 Ttabular
140
120 GL = 28
100 Tt = 2.048
80 f(x) = 0.1739258006x + 51.6203881418
60 R² = 0.0872069067 Criterio de Decisión
40
20
0
0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0
ESTACIÓN WEBERBAWER
FEBRERO
ESTA
160
140
120
100
80 f(x) = 0.1739258006x + 51.6203881418
60 R² = 0.0872069067
40
Tc < Tt
20
0 1.635 2.048
0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0
ESTACIÓN WEBERBAWER Aceptar HP
EXTENCIÓN DE DATOS
Correlación Cruzada
JUNIO 1.- CALCULO DE PARÁMETROS DE RLS MÉTODO
Año
Weberbawer( X) Chancay (Y) XY ANALÍTICO.
1963 3.9 2.3 9.0
1964 6.6 3.5 23.1
X 9.4
1965 11.1 5.4 59.9 Y 4.7
1966 0.0 0 0.0 XY 65.3
1967 3.9 1.3 5.1 SY 7.96
1968 1.6 0.3 0.5 SX 4.11
1969 19.6 8.5 166.6 n = 30
1970 19.9 8.6 171.1 α = 0.05
1971 12.2 5.1 62.2
1972 4.4 1.6 7.0 R = 0.638
1973 28.7 12.6 361.6 Tc = 4.386
1974 17.3 6.6 114.2
1975 10.0 8.8 88.0 Ttabular
1976 23.0 8.2 188.6 GL = 28
1977 8.0 4.5 36.0 Tt = 2.048
1978 3.9 2.3 9.0
1979 1.8 0 0.0
1980 15.1 0 0.0
1981 6.6 5.4 35.6 Criterio de Decisión
1982 7.8 2.2 17.2 Tc > Tt
1983 10.1 0.1 1.0 4.386 2.048
1984 25.1 5.7 143.1 Aceptar HA
1985 0.4 2.9 1.2
1986 0.6 2.6 1.6
1987 4.0 3.5 14.0
1988 5.4 8 43.2
1989 16.7 15.3 255.5 b = 0.329
1990 10.7 12.8 137.0 a = 1.615
1991 0.7 1.4 1.0
1992 3.3 2 6.6 Yi = a + b.Xi
n 30 30 30
X 9.4 4.7 65.3 Y = 0.329X+1.615
S 7.96 4.11 89.83
2.- CALCULO DE PARÁMETROS DE RLS MÉTODO GRAFICO.
E S TA C I Ó N C H A N C AY
n = 30 Con la ecuación.
α = 0.05 Y = 0.3408X+1.5084
R = 0.660 b = 0.3408
JUNIO Tc = 4.651 a = 1.508
18
Ttabular
16
14
GL = 28
12 Tt = 2.048
10
f(x) = 0.3408162422x + 1.5084497735
8 R² = 0.435782583 Criterio de Decisión
6
4
2
0
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0
ESTACIÓN WEBERBAWER
JUNIO
E S TA
18
16
14
12
10
f(x) = 0.3408162422x + 1.5084497735
8 R² = 0.435782583
6
4 Tc > Tt
2
0
4.651 2.048
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0
ESTACIÓN WEBERBAWER Aceptar HA
EXTENCIÓN DE DATOS
Correlación Cruzada
JULIO 1.- CALCULO DE PARÁMETROS DE RLS MÉTODO
Año
Weberbawer( X) Chancay (Y) XY ANALÍTICO.
1963 10.2 3.6 36.7
1964 1.6 8 12.8 X 6.5
1965 2.9 1.6 4.6 Y 4.8
1966 7.5 6.6 49.5 XY 37.5
1967 28.4 4.1 116.4 SY 6.60
1968 1.6 0 0.0 S X 4.64
1969 0.3 2.5 0.8 n = 30
1970 3.2 7.5 24.0 α = 0.05
1971 17.6 6.3 110.9
1972 3.4 6.8 23.1 R = 0.202
1973 8.4 3.8 31.9 Tc = 1.090
1974 6.5 10.3 67.0
1975 7.2 6.9 49.7 Ttabular
1976 0.1 6.4 0.6 GL = 28
1977 7.5 4.2 31.5 Tt = 2.048
1978 4.4 3.5 15.4
1979 7.5 2.5 18.8
1980 3.2 0 0.0
1981 7.2 5.2 37.4 Criterio de Decisión
1982 2.1 2.6 5.5 Tc < Tt
1983 9.6 22.2 213.1 1.090 2.048
1984 23.4 3.2 74.9 Aceptar HP
1985 4.8 4.2 20.2
1986 1.2 0 0.0
1987 10.8 13.5 145.8
1988 0.0 0.7 0.0
1989 3.2 0.7 2.2 b = 0.142
1990 6.8 0.7 4.8 a = 3.902
1991 0.4 0 0.0
1992 3.9 7.1 27.7 Yi = a + b.Xi
n 30 30 30
X 6.5 4.8 37.5 Y = 0.142X+3.902
S 6.60 4.64 50.24
2.- CALCULO DE PARÁMETROS DE RLS MÉTODO GRAFICO.
E S TA C I Ó N C H A N C AY
n = 30 Con la ecuación.
α = 0.05 Y = 0.1468X+0.0435
R = 0.209 b = 0.1468
JULIO Tc = 1.128 a = 0.0435
25
Ttabular
20 GL = 28
15
10
25
20
15 Tt = 2.048
10 Criterio de Decisión
5 f(x) = 0.1467839705x + 3.8697268052 Tc < Tt
R² = 0.0435391268
0
1.128 2.048
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
ESTACIÓN WEBERBAWER Aceptar HP
EXTENCIÓN DE DATOS
Correlación Cruzada
AGOSTO 1.- CALCULO DE PARÁMETROS DE RLS MÉTODO
Año
Weberbawer( X) Chancay (Y) XY ANALÍTICO.
1963 32.6 26.8 873.7
1964 23.8 17.9 426.0
X 12.3
1965 28.0 22.2 621.6 Y 6.4
1966 0.7 0 0.0 XY 133.4
1967 5.8 0 0.0 SY 9.02
1968 16.2 5.1 82.6 SX 8.09
1969 7.8 0.7 5.5 n = 30
1970 2.5 0 0.0 α = 0.05
1971 17.2 5.6 96.3
1972 20.6 7.3 150.4 R = 0.750
1973 19.3 6.6 127.4 Tc = 5.994
1974 26.4 7.5 198.0
1975 19.3 9.1 175.6 Ttabular
1976 4.4 0 0.0 GL = 28
1977 0.1 0 0.0 Tt = 2.048
1978 3.8 0 0.0
1979 15.7 18.7 293.6
1980 6.7 3.2 21.4
1981 12.7 2.8 35.6 Criterio de Decisión
1982 6.6 0 0.0 Tc > Tt
1983 2.7 2.1 5.7 5.994 2.048
1984 18.7 23.7 443.2 Aceptar HA
1985 18.3 5.1 93.3
1986 14.6 0 0.0
1987 12.3 16 196.8
1988 0.4 0.7 0.3
1989 5.9 0.2 1.2 b = 0.672
1990 10.3 1.6 16.5 a = -1.866
1991 0.3 0 0.0
1992 15.1 9 135.9 Yi = a + b.Xi
n 30 30 30
X 12.3 6.4 133.4 Y =0.672X - 1.866
S 9.02 8.09 209.54
2.- CALCULO DE PARÁMETROS DE RLS MÉTODO GRAFICO.
ESTA C I Ó N C H A N C AY
n = 30 Con la ecuación.
α = 0.05 Y = 0.6953X-2.1509
R = 0.775 b = 0.6953
AGOSTO Tc = 6.500 a = -2.1509
30 Ttabular
25
GL = 28
20
f(x) = 0.695299042x - 2.1508762229
15 R² = 0.6013972053
10
0
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0
ESTACIÓN WEBERBAWER
ESTA C I Ó N C
AGOSTO
30
25
20
f(x) = 0.695299042x - 2.1508762229 Tt = 2.048
15 R² = 0.6013972053
10 Criterio de Decisión
5 Tc > Tt
0
6.500 2.048
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0
ESTACIÓN WEBERBAWER Aceptar HA
EXTENCIÓN DE DATOS
Correlación Cruzada
SEPTIEMBRE 1.- CALCULO DE PARÁMETROS DE RLS MÉTODO
Año
Weberbawer( X) Chancay (Y) XY ANALÍTICO.
1963 42.9 8.4 360.4
1964 12.6 16 201.6
X 28.9
1965 13.4 13.4 179.6 Y 14.1
1966 13.1 21.3 279.0 XY 431.1
1967 24.9 22.1 550.3 SY 17.57
1968 50.0 17.5 875.0 SX 8.51
1969 18.4 10.7 196.9 n = 30
1970 18.2 8.6 156.5 α = 0.05
1971 28.1 23.6 663.2
1972 31.9 24.1 768.8 R = 0.157
1973 87.2 4.6 401.1 Tc = 0.841
1974 39.7 11.5 456.6
1975 45.1 4 180.4 Ttabular
1976 12.3 16.5 203.0 GL = 28
1977 16.1 9.4 151.3 Tt = 2.048
1978 25.0 23.5 587.5
1979 33.6 7.3 245.3
1980 2.3 10.4 23.9
1981 22.0 13.4 294.8 Criterio de Decisión
1982 43.9 25.2 1106.3 Tc < Tt
1983 19.2 14.1 270.7 0.841 2.048
1984 36.7 12.2 447.7 Aceptar HP
1985 37.3 14.6 544.6
1986 1.3 0.8 1.0
1987 39.5 23.6 932.2
1988 32.9 8.4 276.4
1989 53.5 40 2140.0 b = 0.076
1990 28.7 10.6 304.2 a = 11.912
1991 10.2 3.8 38.8
1992 27.0 3.6 97.2 Yi = a + b.Xi
n 30 30 30
X 28.9 14.1 431.1 Y =0.076X +11.912
S 17.57 8.51 425.41
2.- CALCULO DE PARÁMETROS DE RLS MÉTODO GRAFICO.
E S TA C I Ó N C H A N C AY
n = 30 Con la ecuación.
α = 0.05 Y = 0.0786X+11.836
R = 0.162 b = 0.0786
SEPTIEMBRE Tc = 0.871 a = 11.836
45
Ttabular
40
35
GL = 28
30 Tt = 2.048
25
20
15 f(x) = 0.0785686212x + 11.836033513
10 R² = 0.0263544746
5
0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0
ESTACIÓN WEBERBAWER
E S TA C I Ó
SEPTIEMBRE
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
Criterio de Decisión
f(x) = 0.0785686212x + 11.836033513
10
5
R² = 0.0263544746 Tc < Tt
0
0.871 2.048
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0
ESTACIÓN WEBERBAWER Aceptar HP
EXTENCIÓN DE DATOS
Correlación Cruzada
OCTUBRE 1.- CALCULO DE PARÁMETROS DE RLS MÉTODO
Año
Weberbawer( X) Chancay (Y) XY ANALÍTICO.
1963 79.7 44.9 3578.5
67.2
1964 52.6 32.6 1714.8
X
1965 98.0 53.2 5213.6 Y 39.2
1966 76.8 41.9 3217.9 XY 3162.2
1967 101.0 52.3 5282.3 SY 32.94
1968 66.4 37.5 2490.0 SX 21.95
1969 73.8 40.6 2996.3 n = 30
1970 103.0 53.1 5469.3 α = 0.05
1971 89.8 47.5 4265.5
1972 31.4 22.5 706.5 R = 0.732
1973 5.5 11.5 63.3 Tc = 5.686
1974 71.0 33.3 2364.3
1975 80.2 43.4 3480.7 Ttabular
1976 32.2 27.4 882.3 GL = 28
1977 53.4 33.2 1772.9 Tt = 2.048
1978 24.4 21 512.4
1979 24.4 2.5 61.0
1980 130.4 59.6 7771.8
1981 111.9 29.5 3301.1 Criterio de Decisión
1982 124.8 96.2 12005.8 Tc > Tt
1983 86.9 54.2 4710.0 5.686 2.048
1984 68.6 10.1 692.9 Aceptar HA
1985 50.0 27 1350.0
1986 43.6 15.3 667.1
1987 37.2 24.7 918.8
1988 69.4 37.6 2609.4
1989 106.6 96.5 10286.9 b = 0.488
1990 73.3 67.4 4940.4 a = 6.438
1991 28.2 41.4 1167.5
1992 20.7 18 372.6 Yi = a + b.Xi
n 30 30 30
X 67.2 39.2 3162.2 Y =0.488X + 6.438
S 32.94 21.95 2916.27
2.- CALCULO DE PARÁMETROS DE RLS MÉTODO GRAFICO.
E S TA C I Ó N C H A N C AY
n = 30 Con la ecuación.
α = 0.05 Y = 0.5045X+5.3087
R = 0.757 b = 0.6953
OCTUBRE Tc = 6.136 a = -2.1509
120
Ttabular
100 GL = 28
80
20
0
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0
ESTACIÓN WEBERBAWER
E S TA C I Ó N C H
OCTUBRE
120
100
80
Tt = 2.048
60 f(x) = 0.5044850295x + 5.3087256154
40
R² = 0.5734748404 Criterio de Decisión
20 Tc > Tt
0
6.136 2.048
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0
ESTACIÓN WEBERBAWER Aceptar HA
X
Y
XY
SX
SY
CUADRO: ORDENAMIENTO DE LOS DATOS DE LA ESTACIÓN PROBLEMA (Chancay).
CÁLCULO DE LA PROBABILIDAD EMPIRICA
m
m P( x X ) ENE FEB MAR. ABR. MAY. JUN. JUL. AGO. SET. OCT. NOV. DIC. TOTAL
1 N
1 2.44 129.0 146.9 312.6 119.6 69.7 15.3 22.2 26.8 40.0 96.5 130.0 161.5 1270.1
2 4.88 126.6 100.3 244.8 92.5 45.2 12.8 13.5 23.7 25.2 96.2 90.6 146.2 1017.6
3 7.32 108.4 96.6 208.9 87.0 42.8 12.6 10.3 22.2 24.1 67.4 81.6 136.7 898.6
4 9.76 105.1 95.4 198.9 71.8 41.8 9.1 8.0 18.7 23.6 59.6 76.1 133.2 841.3
5 12.20 104.3 93.6 197.8 65.7 37.6 8.8 7.5 17.9 23.6 58.3 74.8 116.1 805.9
6 14.63 95.2 93.6 186.5 59.7 35.0 8.6 7.1 16.0 23.5 54.2 73.3 111.8 764.5
7 17.07 95.1 93.0 150.6 58.1 30.6 8.5 7.0 9.1 22.1 53.2 67.1 106.7 701.1
8 19.51 92.5 92.6 145.9 54.9 29.7 8.2 6.9 9.0 21.3 53.1 63.3 106.5 683.9
9 21.95 88.7 92.4 136.1 53.5 27.8 8.0 6.8 8.8 18.1 52.3 59.0 106.2 657.7
10 24.39 85.3 89.9 131.8 52.5 24.7 6.8 6.6 7.5 17.5 50.5 57.8 105.7 636.5
11 26.83 84.5 89.3 115.2 51.5 22.1 6.7 6.4 7.3 16.5 47.5 57.0 97.9 601.8
12 29.27 81.7 85.2 105.0 49.6 22.0 6.6 6.3 7.1 16.2 45.3 47.5 89.1 561.6
13 31.71 79.0 79.5 99.3 49.3 20.6 5.7 5.9 6.6 16.0 44.9 46.2 81.5 534.4
14 34.15 78.1 78.9 97.0 49.3 16.2 5.4 5.8 5.6 15.8 43.6 44.9 77.7 518.2
15 36.59 77.5 77.9 94.8 45.3 15.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 14.6 43.4 44.4 76.1 505.5
16 39.02 71.5 77.5 93.6 43.1 11.5 5.1 5.2 5.1 14.5 41.9 42.7 70.0 481.7
17 41.46 69.2 75.4 93.1 41.1 11.4 4.5 4.4 5.1 14.1 41.4 42.5 66.8 469.0
18 43.90 65.7 73.0 88.4 36.8 11.0 4.5 4.2 3.2 14.0 40.6 42.1 64.0 447.6
19 46.34 64.5 71.8 85.3 36.0 10.6 3.5 4.2 2.8 13.4 37.6 41.5 63.8 435.0
20 48.78 62.4 71.3 84.2 36.0 9.1 3.5 4.2 2.1 13.4 37.5 41.5 60.4 425.6
21 51.22 61.7 71.0 74.5 34.1 8.4 3.2 4.1 1.9 13.3 33.3 41.1 59.8 406.3
22 53.66 60.2 70.4 68.6 33.3 8.3 2.9 4.1 1.9 13.0 33.2 40.0 59.8 395.7
23 56.10 59.9 69.5 65.2 32.8 6.6 2.7 4.0 1.7 13.0 32.6 38.0 58.8 384.8
24 58.54 59.8 69.1 60.8 32.2 6.4 2.6 3.9 1.6 12.8 31.7 36.0 58.6 375.5
25 60.98 57.4 62.4 57.4 31.9 6.3 2.4 3.9 1.3 12.8 31.2 35.0 55.4 357.4
26 63.41 57.2 60.2 56.8 31.7 5.5 2.3 3.8 1.1 12.2 29.5 34.2 55.0 349.5
27 65.85 55.7 58.0 51.6 31.3 4.9 2.3 3.6 0.7 11.5 29.0 33.7 51.2 333.5
28 68.29 52.6 55.8 50.6 31.2 4.6 2.2 3.5 0.7 10.7 27.4 33.4 47.6 320.3
29 70.73 51.9 55.7 46.0 29.3 3.8 2.2 3.2 0.5 10.6 27.0 32.7 44.9 307.8
30 73.17 48.7 54.9 45.7 26.2 3.7 2.2 2.6 0.4 10.4 24.7 31.4 43.1 294.0
31 75.61 48.2 54.6 36.4 25.8 3.6 2.0 2.5 0.2 9.4 22.5 30.2 41.7 277.1
32 78.05 44.8 47.1 35.5 25.7 2.8 1.9 2.5 0.0 8.6 21.0 29.4 36.7 256.0
33 80.49 43.8 44.6 33.2 24.6 1.8 1.6 1.6 0.0 8.4 19.7 27.8 30.7 237.8
34 82.93 42.9 44.0 33.0 24.1 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.0 8.4 18.0 26.0 30.6 230.8
35 85.37 40.5 37.0 26.2 23.0 0.6 1.3 0.7 0.0 7.3 17.0 25.0 29.9 208.5
36 87.80 37.7 35.5 25.8 22.1 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.0 4.6 15.3 24.2 28.9 195.5
37 90.24 35.7 34.4 24.5 16.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.0 11.5 23.3 28.0 178.6
38 92.68 34.4 32.1 22.3 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 11.3 22.1 18.3 157.3
39 95.12 34.1 28.8 15.5 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 10.1 21.0 15.9 141.8
40 97.56 27.6 20.3 0.0 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.5 8.4 11.9 84.1
n 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
X 68.0 69.5 92.5 41.7 15.1 4.6 4.8 5.5 14.2 37.8 45.4 69.6 468.8
S 25.5 25.0 69.1 22.5 16.1 3.8 4.0 7.3 7.4 20.5 22.9 37.7 257.7
R 0.984 0.982 0.993 0.981 0.94 0.98 0.99 0.984 0.988 0.990 0.960 0.959 0.987
Tc 34.60 32.64 52.19 31.77 18.52 32.64 43.70 34.60 39.91 43.70 22.02 21.75 38.35
Tt 2.048 2.048 2.048 2.048 2.048 2.05 2.05 2.048 2.048 2.048 2.048 2.048 2.048
HA si / no SI SI SI SI SI SI SI SI SI SI SI SI SI
1
n 2 2
TC R 2
1 R
1
n 2 2
TC R 2
1 R
Seguidamente se presentan las curvas de persistencia correspondiente
al acumulado y a cada mes de la estación problema.
PR EC IPITA C IÓN (m m)
140 160
120 140
f(x) = 122.9886182849 exp( - 0.0132455028 x ) 120 f(x) = -26.2518813179 ln(x) + 165.2940944178
100 R² = 0.8428494624
R² = 0.9797638588 100
80
80
60
60
40 40
20 20
0 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
P(x>X) (%) P(x>X) (%)
HP: R = 0 HP: R = 0
HA: R ≠ 0 HA: R ≠ 0
α = 0.05 α= 0.05
R = 0.983514 R= 0.918
Tc = 33.53 Tc = 14.27
Tt = 2.021 Tt = 2.021
Tc > Tt Aceptar HA Tc > Tt Aceptar HA
(Prueba significativa puede utilizarce la ecuación) Prueba significativa puede utilizarce la ecuación)
PR EC IPITA C IÓN (m m)
350 140
300 120
f(x) = -78.7219621131 ln(x) + 379.7910815885
250 R² = 0.9899174749 100 f(x) = -25.4224788367 ln(x) + 134.4761644971
200 f(x) = 263.4983957199 exp( - 0.0260099109 x ) 80 R² = 0.9780167902
R² = 0.9784625923
150 60
100 40
50 20
0 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
P(x>X) (%) P(x>X) (%)
HP: R = 0 HP: R = 0
HA: R ≠ 0 HA: R ≠ 0
α = 0.05 α= 0.05
R = 0.994937 R= 0.9889
Tc = 61.03 Tc = 41.10
Tt = 2.021 Tt = 2.021
Tc > Tt Aceptar HA Tc > Tt Aceptar HA
(Prueba significativa puede utilizarce la ecuación) Prueba significativa puede utilizarce la ecuación)
PR EC IPITA C IÓN (mm )
PRECIPITACIÓN (mm)
80
20
70
f(x) = 81.448368992 exp( - 0.0478579725 x )
60 f(x)
R² ==0.9137075003
-18.2421437277 ln(x) + 81.6895728035 15 f(x) = -4.2495701665 ln(x) + 20.0881356154
50 R² = 0.984634288 R² = 0.9777458639
40 10
30 5
20
10 0
0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
0 20 40P(x>X)60 (%)80 100 120 P(x>X) (%)
HP: R = 0 HP: R = 0
HA: R ≠ 0 HA: R ≠ 0
α = 0.05 α= 0.05
R = 0.99227 R= 0.989
Tc = 49.29 Tc = 40.82
Tt = 2.021 Tt = 2.021
Tc > Tt Aceptar HA Tc > Tt Aceptar HA
(Prueba significativa puede utilizarce la ecuación) Prueba significativa puede utilizarce la ecuación)
PR EC IPITA C IÓN (m m)
PRECIPITACIÓN (mm)
25 30
25 f(x) = -8.1668464141 ln(x) + 35.3544347148
20
R² = 0.961513757
15 20
f(x) = -4.3687655825 ln(x) + 20.7759188409
R² = 0.894118078 15
10
5 10
0 5
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0
P(x>X) (%) 0 20 40P(x>X)
60 (%)80 100 120
HP: R = 0 HP: R = 0
HA: R ≠ 0 HA: R ≠ 0
α = 0.05 α= 0.05
R = 0.945569 R= 0.9806
Tc = 17.91 Tc = 30.81
Tt = 2.021 Tt = 2.021
Tc > Tt Aceptar HA Tc > Tt Aceptar HA
(Prueba significativa puede utilizarce la ecuación) Prueba significativa puede utilizarce la ecuación)
PR EC IPITA CIÓN (mm)
50 120
40 100
f(x) = -22.6848111229 ln(x) + 120.6252517846
30 f(x) = -8.0994873568 ln(x) + 43.7278095073 80 R² = 0.9382821275
R² = 0.9172238715 60
20
40
10
20
0 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
P(x>X) (%) P(x>X) (%)
HP: R = 0 HP: R = 0
HA: R ≠ 0 HA: R ≠ 0
α = 0.05 α= 0.05
R = 0.957706 R= 0.9687
Tc = 20.52 Tc = 24.04
Tt = 2.021 Tt = 2.021
Tc > Tt Aceptar HA Tc > Tt Aceptar HA
(Prueba significativa puede utilizarce la ecuación) Prueba significativa puede utilizarce la ecuación)
PR EC IPITA CIÓN (mm)
140 200
120 f(x) = -42.0885362244 ln(x) + 223.2224308787
100 f(x) = -25.8477480539 ln(x) + 139.7564446013 150 R² = 0.9503455541
80 R² = 0.9686438621
100
60
40 50
20
0 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
P(x>X) (%) P(x>X) (%)
HP: R = 0 HP: R = 0
HA: R ≠ 0 HA: R ≠ 0
α = 0.05 α= 0.05
R = 0.984175 R= 0.9748
Tc = 34.24 Tc = 26.96
Tt = 2.021 Tt = 2.021
Tc > Tt Aceptar HA Tc > Tt Aceptar HA
(Prueba significativa puede utilizarce la ecuación) Prueba significativa puede utilizarce la ecuación)
MES ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC
al 75% 45.70 51.95 39.91 24.72 2.93 1.74 1.91 0.09 8.76 28.16 41.50 45.84
5.- Completacion y extensión de datos con los coeficientes del método
analítico.
ESTACIONES HIDROMETEREOLÓGICAS DE LA CUENCA DEL RIO CAJAMARQUINO
ESTACIÓN WEBERBAWER COMPLETA HASTA EL 2002
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC TOTAL
1963 35.8 85.1 70.3 52.1 13.3 3.9 10.2 32.6 42.9 79.7 47 172.1 645.0
1964 30.3 50.4 357.3 56.2 12.3 6.6 1.6 23.8 12.6 52.6 58.8 115.2 777.7
1965 121.1 81.4 121.1 41.7 12.1 11.1 2.9 28 13.4 98 40.7 34.4 605.9
1966 62.7 45.9 54.5 41.9 44 0 7.5 0.7 13.1 76.8 62.7 18.7 428.5
1967 120.9 139.5 109.1 32.3 44.1 3.9 28.4 5.8 24.9 101 17.8 36.7 664.4
1968 58 81 67.7 26.2 14.9 1.6 1.6 16.2 50 66.4 54.6 70.8 509
1969 42 73.7 83.5 85.7 1.5 19.6 0.3 7.8 18.4 73.8 106.4 162 674.7
1970 71 41.8 79.9 54.5 33.8 19.9 3.2 2.5 18.2 103 51.5 54.1 533.4
1971 58.4 97.8 275.7 54.7 8 12.2 17.6 17.2 28.1 89.8 45.8 66.5 771.8
1972 55.5 67.6 11.8 76.2 18.1 4.4 3.4 20.6 31.9 31.4 66.5 50.2 437.6
1973 95.3 70.7 91.6 98.4 27.9 28.7 8.4 19.3 87.2 5.5 68.2 72.3 673.5
1974 76.8 128.2 95.2 58.5 4.6 17.3 6.5 26.4 39.7 71 55.1 84.6 663.9
1975 137.6 181.8 238.5 70.7 66.8 10 7.2 19.3 45.1 80.2 65.1 0.9 923.2
1976 130.4 62.9 81.3 55.2 43 23 0.1 4.4 12.3 32.2 71.6 44.4 560.8
1977 129.9 146.4 141.9 42.6 25.5 8 7.5 0.1 16.1 53.4 54.8 68.2 694.4
1978 12.7 34.4 48.8 37 65.6 3.9 4.4 3.8 25 24.4 54 44.8 358.8
1979 84.1 81.6 159.7 37.1 16.3 1.8 7.5 15.7 33.6 24.4 26.3 46.6 534.7
1980 34.9 42.4 65 29.3 6.9 15.1 3.2 6.7 2.3 130.4 111 106.7 553.9
1981 78.2 186.5 105.7 33.7 14.7 6.6 7.2 12.7 22 111.9 45.6 111.3 736.1
1982 71.8 102.9 75.7 88.7 38.2 7.8 2.1 6.6 43.9 124.8 67.3 87.4 717.2
1983 116.6 75.7 152.8 105.7 31.1 10.1 9.6 2.7 19.2 86.9 28.1 118.4 756.9
1984 24.7 233.6 123.8 80 69.5 25.1 23.4 18.7 36.7 68.6 97.6 104.1 905.8
1985 24.6 42.4 37.2 41.9 53 0.4 4.8 18.3 37.3 50 23.9 40.3 374.1
1986 84.4 47.7 96.8 120.2 16 0.6 1.2 14.6 1.3 43.6 66.2 51.8 544.4
1987 98 95.2 39.2 52.2 11.2 4 10.8 12.3 39.5 37.2 74.3 61.5 535.4
1988 109.7 105.5 44.8 95.6 10.6 5.4 0 0.4 32.9 69.4 65.2 63.4 602.9
1989 87 158.8 113.5 85.4 18.8 16.7 3.2 5.9 53.5 106.6 47.1 2.7 699.2
1990 101 95.3 101.8 62 28 10.7 6.8 10.3 28.7 73.3 61.2 64.2 643.3
1991 43.8 90 133.7 55.2 17.9 0.7 0.4 0.3 10.2 28.2 55.1 71.9 507.4
1992 36.5 90 96 93.8 61.1 3.3 3.9 15.1 27 20.7 48.3 146.3 642
1993 61 112.2 245 102.9 29.6 1.9 3.3 2 51.7 106.3 71.4 84.1 871.4
1994 116.9 103.1 170.2 144.9 35.3 3.3 0 0.2 11.9 27.2 89.8 122.6 825.4
1995 44.7 108.3 75.7 49.7 20.6 1.7 13.2 10.8 11.5 51.8 50.5 76.4 514.9
1996 65.2 124 121 50.4 13.7 0.8 0.5 15.8 13.9 76.2 68.8 34.1 584.4
1997 63.8 152.9 26.5 40.4 17 15.4 0.2 0 27.4 50.8 111.9 129.4 635.7
1998 103 116.5 257 83.9 19.6 4.8 1.3 4.7 17.8 79.6 29.1 47.9 765.2
1999 94.8 242.7 69.5 64.4 53.7 22.8 22.1 1.2 81.4 21.7 77 68.8 820.1
2000 46 162.3 126.3 77.3 40.5 15.6 2.1 13.4 56.6 9.9 44.5 122.3 716.8
2001 191.2 100.8 230.2 57.7 48.1 2.3 13.9 0 34.4 46.2 93.4 90.9 909.1
2002 27 60.8 133.1 77.2 23 8.8 10.7 3.4 14.6 90.3 40.7 86.1 575.7
TOTAL 3047.3 4119.8 4728.4 2613.5 1129.9 359.8 262.2 420.3 1188.2 2575.2 2414.9 3035.1 25894.6
X 76.2 103.0 118.2 65.3 28.2 9.0 6.6 10.5 29.7 64.4 60.4 75.9 647.4
S 38.3 49.5 73.9 26.6 18.2 7.7 6.7 8.8 18.8 32.2 22.5 39.5 140.5
DATOS COMPLETADOS Y EXTENDIDOS DE LA ESTACIÓN CHANCAY.
UTILIZANDO LAS ECUACIONES DEL MÉTODO ANALÍTICO SE PROCEDE A EXTENDER LA SERIE HASTA EL AÑO 2002.
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC TOTAL
1963 43.8 55.7 50.6 32.8 4.6 2.3 3.6 26.8 8.4 44.9 30.2 161.5 465.2
1964 40.5 93.6 312.6 36 3.8 3.5 8 17.9 16 32.6 41.5 106.7 712.7
1965 95.2 89.3 97 24.6 3.6 5.4 1.6 22.2 13.4 53.2 24.2 28.9 458.6
1966 59.8 78.9 33 23 22 0 6.6 0 21.3 41.9 42.1 15.9 344.5
1967 92.5 89.9 85.3 16.8 22.1 1.3 4.1 0 22.1 52.3 8.4 30.7 425.5
1968 57.2 44.6 45.7 12.8 2.8 0.3 0 5.1 17.5 37.5 36 58.6 318.1
1969 48.2 92.4 60.8 51.5 0 8.5 2.5 0.7 10.7 40.6 74.8 133.2 523.9
1970 64.5 37 57.4 31.2 15.3 8.6 7.5 0 8.6 53.1 33.7 44.9 361.8
1971 57.4 55.8 244.8 31.3 0 5.1 6.3 5.6 23.6 47.5 29.4 55 561.8
1972 55.7 93.6 0 45.3 4.9 1.6 6.8 7.3 24.1 22.5 44.9 41.7 348.4
1973 78.1 54.6 68.6 59.7 11.4 12.6 3.8 6.6 4.6 11.5 46.2 59.8 417.5
1974 59.9 47.1 65.2 25.7 0 6.6 10.3 7.5 11.5 33.3 25 58.8 350.9
1975 108.4 77.5 150.6 34.1 41.8 8.8 6.9 9.1 4 43.4 41.5 28 554.1
1976 104.3 95.4 84.2 36 37.6 8.2 6.4 0 16.5 27.4 42.5 55.4 513.9
1977 85.3 96.6 93.6 26.2 0.6 4.5 4.2 0 9.4 33.2 34.2 43.1 430.9
1978 34.4 71.3 33.2 24.1 45.2 2.3 3.5 0 23.5 21 41.1 30.6 330.2
1979 71.5 28.8 115.2 54.9 0.4 0 2.5 18.7 7.3 2.5 22.1 29.9 353.8
1980 44.8 32.1 46 31.9 0.3 0 0 3.2 10.4 59.6 130 116.1 474.4
1981 79 146.9 131.8 13 11.5 5.4 5.2 2.8 13.4 29.5 67.1 89.1 594.7
1982 37.7 92.6 93.1 43.1 27.8 2.2 2.6 0 25.2 96.2 27.8 146.2 594.5
1983 34.1 35.5 197.8 58.1 1.7 0.1 22.2 2.1 14.1 54.2 40 105.7 565.6
1984 27.6 44 145.9 52.5 69.7 5.7 3.2 23.7 12.2 10.1 57.8 51.2 503.6
1985 69.2 34.4 24.5 22.1 29.7 2.9 4.2 5.1 14.6 27 23.3 63.8 320.8
1986 84.5 75.4 74.5 87 5.5 2.6 0 0 0.8 15.3 32.7 97.9 476.3
1987 129 60.2 26.2 33.3 1.8 3.5 13.5 16 23.6 24.7 81.6 66.8 480.2
1988 95.1 85.2 22.3 119.6 6.4 8 0.7 0.7 8.4 37.6 47.5 59.8 491.3
1989 105.1 100.3 88.4 71.8 10.6 15.3 0.7 0.2 40 96.5 33.4 11.9 574.2
1990 65.7 54.9 25.8 12.6 6.6 12.8 0.7 1.6 10.6 67.4 44.4 60.4 363.5
1991 35.7 58 36.4 49.6 8.3 1.4 0 0 3.8 41.4 21 18.3 273.9
1992 48.7 20.3 35.5 29.3 42.8 2 7.1 9 3.6 18 31.4 136.7 384.4
1993 60.2 71.0 198.9 65.7 16.2 2.2 4.4 0.5 15.8 58.3 59.0 76.1 628.3
1994 88.7 69.5 136.1 92.5 20.6 2.7 3.9 1.7 12.8 19.7 73.3 106.5 628.1
1995 51.9 70.4 56.8 31.7 9.1 2.2 5.8 5.4 12.8 31.7 42.7 70.0 390.5
1996 62.4 73.0 94.8 32.2 3.7 1.9 4.0 8.8 13.0 43.6 57.0 36.7 430.9
1997 61.7 77.9 15.5 25.8 6.3 6.7 3.9 1.9 14.0 31.2 90.6 111.8 447.2
1998 81.7 71.8 208.9 53.5 8.4 3.2 4.1 1.3 13.3 45.3 26.0 47.6 564.9
1999 77.5 93.0 51.6 41.1 35.0 9.1 7.0 1.1 18.1 17.0 63.3 64.0 477.9
2000 52.6 79.5 99.3 49.3 24.7 6.8 4.2 7.1 16.2 11.3 38.0 106.2 495.1
2001 126.6 69.1 186.5 36.8 30.6 2.4 5.9 1.9 14.5 29.0 76.1 81.5 660.8
2002 42.9 62.4 105.0 49.3 11.0 4.5 5.4 0.4 13.0 50.5 35.0 77.7 457.1
TOTAL 2719.07 2779.39 3699.5 1667.76 604.51 183.15 193.26 221.94 566.7 1513.38 1816.89 2784.62 18750.138
X 67.98 69.48 92.49 41.69 15.11 4.58 4.83 5.55 14.17 37.83 45.42 69.62 468.75
S 25.51 24.97 69.10 22.45 16.06 3.75 4.04 7.27 7.39 20.45 22.94 37.71 105.61
S2 650.7 623.7 4775.4 504.1 257.8 14.1 16.3 52.9 54.6 418.4 526.1 1421.9 11154.4
Cv 0.38 0.36 0.75 0.54 1.06 0.82 0.84 1.31 0.52 0.54 0.50 0.54 0.23
g1 0.6 0.4 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.0 2.2 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.6 0.6 0.3
g2 -0.2 1.0 1.6 2.9 2.1 0.7 8.2 1.8 2.6 1.7 3.6 -0.3 -0.6
Xm 27.6 20.3 0 12.6 0 0 0 0 0.8 2.5 8.4 11.92 273.9
XM 129 146.9 312.6 119.6 69.7 15.3 22.2 26.8 40 96.5 130 161.5 712.7
R 101.4 126.6 312.6 107 69.7 15.3 22.2 26.8 39.2 94 121.6 149.58 438.8
n 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
K 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
A 17 21 52 18 12 3 4 4 7 16 20 25 73
Aa 20 25 55 20 15 5 5 5 10 20 25 30 75
Ra 120 150 330 120 90 30 30 30 60 120 150 180 450
a 19 23 17 13 20 15 8 3 21 26 28 30 11
Xm 18 9 -9 6 -10 -8 -4 -2 -10 -11 -6 -3 268
XM 139 158 321 126 80 23 26 28 51 110 144 177 718
FORMULAS ESTADÍSTICAS UTILIZADAS.
a) COEFICIENTE DE VARIABILIDAD (CV)
SX
Cv
X
Donde:
SX = desviación estándar de cada mes.
X= Media muestral.
b) COEFICIENTE DE SESGO.
3
1 n x X
g 1 i
n i 1 S x
Donde:
SX = desviación estándar de cada mes.
X = Media muestral.
xi = Valor de la variable de X.
n = numero de valores.
c) COEFICIENTE DE KURTOSIS.
4
1 n xi X
g 2
n i 1 S x
Donde:
SX = desviación estándar de cada mes.
X = Media muestral.
xi = Valor de la variable de X.
n = numero de valores.
d) RANGO (R).
R = Xmáx - Xmin a
X min LIPI
2
e) NUMERO DE INTERVALOS (K).
LIPI = Límite inferior del primer
K = 1 + 3.3Logn intervalo
f) AMPLITUD (A).
R a
A X máx LSUI
K 2
h) a = Ra - R
DESCRIPTORES GRÁFICOS (ESTACIÓN CHANCAY)
Int.
ENERO K Clase Xi fi Fi hi (%) Hi (%)
Xm = 18 1 18 - 38 28 5 5 12.5 3.1
XM = 139 2 38 - 58 48 11 16 27.5 10.0
Ra = 120 3 58 - 78 68 10 26 25 16.3
K = 6 4 78 -98 88 9 35 22.5 21.9
Aa = 20 5 98 - 118 108 3 38 7.5 23.8
N = 40 6 118 - 138 128 2 40 5 25.0
Total 40 160
30 30.0
10
Hi (%)
25.0
hi (%)
25
8
20.0
20
fi
6 15.0
15
4 10.0
10
5.0
2 5
0.0
0 0
20 40 60 80 100 120 140
18 - 38 38 - 58 58 - 78 78 -98 98 - 118 118 - 138 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
INTERVALO DE CLASE Xi Xi
Int.
FEBRERO K Clase Xi fi Fi hi (%) Hi (%)
40 30.0
14
35
Hi (%)
25.0
hi (%)
12
30
10 20.0
fi
25
8 15.0
20
6
15 10.0
4 10
5.0
2 5
0.0
0 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
9 - 34.0 34 -59 59-84 84 -109 109 - 134 134 - 159 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
INTERVALO DE CLASE Xi Xi
DESCRIPTORES GRÁFICOS (ESTACIÓN CHANCAY)
Int.
MARZO K Clase Xi fi Fi hi (%) Hi (%)
45 25.0
16
40
Hi (%)
14
hi (%)
20.0
35
12
30
15.0
fi
10
25
8
20 10.0
6
15
4 10 5.0
2 5
0.0
0 0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
(-09) - 46 46 -101 101 - 156 156 -211 211 - 266 266 - 321 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
INTERVALO DE CLASE Xi Xi
Int.
ABRIL K Clase Xi fi Fi hi (%) Hi (%)
Xm = 6 1 6 - 26.0 16 10 10 25 5.3
XM = 126 2 26 -46 36 16 26 40 13.8
Ra = 120 3 46-66 56 10 36 25 19.1
K = 6 4 66 -86 76 1 37 2.5 19.7
Aa = 20 5 86 - 106 96 2 39 5 20.7
N = 40 6 106 - 126 116 1 40 2.5 21.3
Total 40 188
45 25.0
16
40
Hi (%)
14
hi (%)
20.0
35
12
30
15.0
fi
10
25
8
20 10.0
6 15
4 10 5.0
2 5
0.0
0 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
6 - 26.0 26 -46 46-66 66 -86 86 - 106 106 - 126 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
INTERVALO DE CLASE Xi Xi
DESCRIPTORES GRÁFICOS (ESTACIÓN CHANCAY)
Int.
MAYO K Clase Xi fi Fi hi (%) Hi (%)
40 25.0
14
Hi (%)
35
hi (%)
12 20.0
30
10
15.0
fi
25
8
20
10.0
6
15
4 10 5.0
2 5
0.0
0 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
( -10) - 5 05-20.0 20- 35 35 -50 50 - 65 65 - 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
INTERVALO DE CLASE Xi Xi
Int.
JUNIO K Clase Xi fi Fi hi (%) Hi (%)
20
Hi (%)
25.0
hi (%)
50
15 20.0
40
fi
15.0
30
10
10.0
20
5
5.0
10
0 0.0
0
(-8) -(-3) (-3) -2 (2)-(7) (7) -(12) (12) - (17) (17) - (22) 0 5 10 15 20 25
0 5 10 15 20 25
INTERVALO DE CLASE Xi Xi
DESCRIPTORES GRÁFICOS (ESTACIÓN CHANCAY)
Int.
JULIO K Clase Xi fi Fi hi (%) Hi (%)
60 25.0
20
Hi (%)
hi (%)
50 20.0
15 40
15.0
fi
30
10 10.0
20
5.0
5
10
0.0
0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25
(-4) - 1 01-6.0 6.0- 11 11.0 -16 16 - 21 21- 26 0 5 10 15 20 25
INTERVALO DE CLASE Xi Xi
Int.
AGOSTO K Clase Xi fi Fi hi (%) Hi (%)
20
Hi (%)
hi (%)
50 20.0
15 40
15.0
fi
30
10 10.0
20
5.0
5
10
0.0
0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
(-2) -(3) (3) -8 (8)-(13) 13 -18 18 - 23 23 - 28 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
INTERVALO DE CLASE Xi Xi
DESCRIPTORES GRÁFICOS (ESTACIÓN CHANCAY)
Int.
SEPTIEMBRE K Clase Xi fi Fi hi (%) Hi (%)
60 30.0
20
25.0
Hi (%)
50
hi (%)
15 20.0
fi
40
15.0
10 30
10.0
20
5
5.0
10
0 0.0
0
(-10) - 0 00-10 (10)- (20) 20- 30 30 - 40 40- 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
INTERVALO DE CLASE Xi Xi
Int.
OCTUBRE K Clase Xi fi Fi hi (%) Hi (%)
14
hi (%)
35
12
20.0
30
fi
10
25 15.0
8
20
6 10.0
15
4 10 5.0
2 5
0.0
0 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
(-11) -(9) (9) -29 29-49 49 -69 69 - 89 89 - 109 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
INTERVALO DE CLASE Xi Xi
DESCRIPTORES GRÁFICOS (ESTACIÓN CHANCAY)
Int.
NOVIEMBRE K Clase Xi fi Fi hi (%) Hi (%)
70 25.0
25
Hi (%)
60
20.0
hi (%)
20 50
15.0
fi
15 40
30 10.0
10
20
5.0
5
10
0.0
0 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
(-6) - 19 19-44 44- 69 69- 94 94 - 119 119- 144 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
INTERVALO DE CLASE Xi Xi
Int.
DICIEMBRE K Clase Xi fi Fi hi (%) Hi (%)
10
25 20.0
fi
8
20
15.0
6
15
10.0
4 10
5.0
2 5
0.0
0 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
(-3) -27 27 -57 57-87 87 -117 117 - 147 147 - 177 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
INTERVALO DE CLASE Xi Xi
6
20.28
MODELO SELECCIONADO: NORMAL.
CUADRO Nº 01
ORDENAMIENTO DESCENDENTE, ESTIMACIÓN DE LOS PARÁMETROS DEL MODELO
PRECIPITACIÓN Y PROBABILIDAD OBSERVADA Y SIMULADA
1 2 z2
1
m
PP. (mm)
P( x X )
m P( x X ) 1 P( x X ) z
x X
f z e ½F(x<X)-P(x<X)½ Obs.
1 N S
2
1 712.7 0.02439 0.97561 2.31 0.98955 0.01394
2 660.8 0.04878 0.95122 1.82 0.96553 0.01431
3 628.3 0.07317 0.92683 1.51 0.93457 0.00774
4 628.1 0.09756 0.90244 1.51 0.93431 0.03187
5 594.7 0.12195 0.87805 1.19 0.88347 0.00542
6 594.5 0.14634 0.85366 1.19 0.88310 0.02944
7 574.2 0.17073 0.82927 1.00 0.84105 0.01178
8 565.6 0.19512 0.80488 0.92 0.82042 0.01555
9 564.9 0.21951 0.78049 0.91 0.81866 0.03817
10 561.8 0.24390 0.75610 0.88 0.81084 0.05474
11 554.1 0.26829 0.73171 0.81 0.79048 0.05877
12 523.9 0.29268 0.70732 0.52 0.69922 0.00810
13 513.9 0.31707 0.68293 0.43 0.66548 0.01745
14 503.6 0.34146 0.65854 0.33 0.62928 0.02926
15 495.1 0.36585 0.63415 0.25 0.59861 0.03554
16 491.3 0.39024 0.60976 0.21 0.58457 0.02519
17 480.2 0.41463 0.58537 0.11 0.54310 0.04227
18 477.9 0.43902 0.56098 0.09 0.53445 0.02653
19 476.3 0.46341 0.53659 0.07 0.52833 0.00826
20 474.4 0.48780 0.51220 0.05 0.52132 0.00912
21 465.2 0.51220 0.48780 -0.03 0.48658 0.00123
22 458.6 0.53659 0.46341 -0.10 0.46171 0.00171
23 457.1 0.56098 0.43902 -0.11 0.45611 0.01709
24 447.2 0.58537 0.41463 -0.20 0.41926 0.00463
25 430.9 0.60976 0.39024 -0.36 0.36008 0.03016
26 430.9 0.63415 0.36585 -0.36 0.36002 0.00584
27 425.5 0.65854 0.34146 -0.41 0.34107 0.00039
28 417.5 0.68293 0.31707 -0.49 0.31374 0.00334
29 390.5 0.70732 0.29268 -0.74 0.22937 0.06331
30 384.4 0.73171 0.26829 -0.80 0.21223 0.05606
31 363.5 0.75610 0.24390 -1.00 0.15954 0.08437 Máx. Desv.
32 361.8 0.78049 0.21951 -1.01 0.15561 0.06391
33 353.8 0.80488 0.19512 -1.09 0.13820 0.05692
34 350.9 0.82927 0.17073 -1.12 0.13224 0.03850
35 348.4 0.85366 0.14634 -1.14 0.12724 0.01911
36 344.5 0.87805 0.12195 -1.18 0.11970 0.00225
37 330.2 0.90244 0.09756 -1.31 0.09478 0.00278
38 320.8 0.92683 0.07317 -1.40 0.08064 0.00747
39 318.1 0.95122 0.04878 -1.43 0.07687 0.02809
40 273.9 0.97561 0.02439 -1.84 0.03252 0.00813
X 468.75
S 105.61
Cv 0.2253
g1 0.2542 Curva Normal. o = 0.22 ( tabla al α = 5 % )
g2 -0.5737 Curva Platikùrtica. màx = 0.08
µ 468.75
105.61 máx < t Aceptamos la HP y se acepta el modelo teórico,
La Prueba es altamente No Significativa
MODELO SELECCIONADO:GUMBEL
ORDENAMIENTO DESCENDENTE, ESTIMACIÓN DE LOS PARÁMETROS DEL MODELO
PRECIPITACIÓN Y PROBABILIDAD OBSERVADA Y SIMULADA
( x )
F ( x X ) e e
m
PP. (mm) P( x X ) m P( x X ) 1 P( x X ) ½F(x<X)-P(x<X)½ Obs.
1 N
1 712.7 0.02439 0.97561 0.97139 0.00422
2 660.8 0.04878 0.95122 0.94697 0.00425
3 628.3 0.07317 0.92683 0.92230 0.00453
4 628.1 0.09756 0.90244 0.92210 0.01966
5 594.7 0.12195 0.87805 0.88546 0.00741
6 594.5 0.14634 0.85366 0.88519 0.03154
7 574.2 0.17073 0.82927 0.85559 0.02632
8 565.6 0.19512 0.80488 0.84096 0.03608
9 564.9 0.21951 0.78049 0.83970 0.05921
10 561.8 0.24390 0.75610 0.83411 0.07801
11 554.1 0.26829 0.73171 0.81941 0.08770
12 523.9 0.29268 0.70732 0.75020 0.04289
13 513.9 0.31707 0.68293 0.72288 0.03995
14 503.6 0.34146 0.65854 0.69229 0.03375
15 495.1 0.36585 0.63415 0.66525 0.03111
16 491.3 0.39024 0.60976 0.65250 0.04275
17 480.2 0.41463 0.58537 0.61342 0.02806
18 477.9 0.43902 0.56098 0.60499 0.04401
19 476.3 0.46341 0.53659 0.59896 0.06237
20 474.4 0.48780 0.51220 0.59199 0.07979
21 465.2 0.51220 0.48780 0.55642 0.06861
22 458.6 0.53659 0.46341 0.52986 0.06644
23 457.1 0.56098 0.43902 0.52375 0.08473
24 447.2 0.58537 0.41463 0.48231 0.06767
25 430.9 0.60976 0.39024 0.41110 0.02086
26 430.9 0.63415 0.36585 0.41102 0.04516
27 425.5 0.65854 0.34146 0.38698 0.04552
28 417.5 0.68293 0.31707 0.35126 0.03419
29 390.5 0.70732 0.29268 0.23407 0.05861
30 384.4 0.73171 0.26829 0.20933 0.05896
31 363.5 0.75610 0.24390 0.13331 0.11059
32 361.8 0.78049 0.21951 0.12775 0.09176
33 353.8 0.80488 0.19512 0.10356 0.09156
34 350.9 0.82927 0.17073 0.09548 0.07525
35 348.4 0.85366 0.14634 0.08881 0.05753
36 344.5 0.87805 0.12195 0.07897 0.04298
37 330.2 0.90244 0.09756 0.04880 0.04877
38 320.8 0.92683 0.07317 0.03389 0.03928
39 318.1 0.95122 0.04878 0.03025 0.01853
40 273.9 0.97561 0.02439 0.00252 0.02187
X 468.75 SESGO:
S 105.614 X 0.45005S
1.28255
3
S 1 n xi X
S² 10625.48 ( tabla al α = 5 % ) g1
n i 1 S x
Cv 0.225 o = 0.22
g1 0.254 Curva Normal. màx = 0.11 CURTOSIS:
g2 -0.574 Curva Platikùrtica.
4
1 n x X
g 2 i
n i 1 S x
4
0.012 1 n x X
421.2 máx < t Aceptamos la HP y se acepta el modelo teórico,
g 2 i
n i 1 S x
La Prueba es No Significativa
MODELO SELECCIONADO: NORMAL.
CUADRO Nº 02
1 T 1 PP.màx.Ge
PERÍODO
J (%)
Tr 1 P( x £ x ) Tabla PP. MÁXIMAS
GENERADAS
DE AÑOS "N"
1 1 j N T Z
x z. (mm) EXCEL
Tr
1 ln 1
PERÍODO
J (%) 1 x ln1
1 1 j Tr
DE AÑOS "N"
N
5 40 722.91
15 13 627.84
30 6 562.87
2
50 3 508.07
75 2 451.40
90 1.5 413.48
5 98 798.36
15 31 703.39
30 15 638.66
5
50 8 583.94
75 4 526.86
90 3 485.08
5 195 855.44
15 62 760.47
30 29 695.74
10
50 15 641.02
75 8 583.94
90 5 542.16
5 488 930.89
15 154 835.92
30 71 771.19
25
50 37 716.48
75 19 659.40
90 11 617.61
5 975 987.98
15 308 893.01
30 141 828.28
50
50 73 773.56
75 37 716.48
90 22 674.70
5 1950 1045.06
15 616 950.09
30 281 885.36
100
50 145 830.64
75 73 773.56
90 44 731.78
HIDROGRAMA UNITARIO TRIANGULAR SINTETICO PARA LA CUENCA SAN PABLO.
te L 0.218 A
tp t r t c0.5 0.6t c tc qp
2 3600V tp
t (h) q m3/s.mm
0 0
7.84 2.92
20.94 0
1
HIETOGRAMA
he (mm)
t (hrs.)
d e s c a rg a q (m 3 /s * m m )
2; 2.92
1; 0.00 3; 0.00
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
tiempo (hrs)
RAMA ASCENDENTE
0.10 0.012 0.78 0.035
0.20 0.076 1.57 0.222
0.30 0.158 2.35 0.461
0.34 0.278 2.67 0.812
0.50 0.430 3.92 1.256
0.60 0.601 4.71 1.755
0.80 0.892 6.27 2.605
1.00 1.000 7.84 2.921
1.00 1.000 7.84 2.921
1.20 0.918 9.41 2.681
1.40 0.753 10.98 2.199
1.60 0.532 12.55 1.554
RAMA DE RECESIÒN
RAMA DE RECESIÒN
1.80 0.418 14.12 1.221
2.00 0.323 15.68 0.943
2.20 0.240 17.25 0.701
2.40 0.177 18.82 0.517
2.60 0.133 20.39 0.388
2.80 0.095 21.96 0.277
3.00 0.076 23.53 0.222
3.50 0.038 27.45 0.111
4.00 0.019 31.37 0.055
4.50 0.006 35.29 0.018
5.00 0.000 39.21 0.000
Gasto unitario q(m3/s.mm)
HIDROGRAMA UNITARIO SINTÈTICO ADIMENSIONAL CURVILÌNIO GENERADO PARA LA SUBCUENCA DEL RIO SAN PABLO
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28
Tiempo (hrs)
EVAPORACIÓN MEDIDA EN EL TANQUE DE EVAPORACIÓN
MES ENERO FEBRERO MARZO ABRIL MAYO JUNIO JULIO AGOSTO SEPTI. OCTUBRE NOVIEM. DICIEM. ANUAL
DÍAS 31 28 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31 30
EVAPORACIÓN TANQUE (mm/ día) 3.6 3.2 3.3 3.2 3 3.3 3.7 3.9 3.7 4.1 4 4.4 4
EVA,TANQUE (mm/ mes) = (DIAS).(ETmm/dia) 111.6 89.6 102.3 96 93 99 114.7 120.9 111 127.1 120 136.4 110
V
E (mm / mes.) C. Pa P 1
16.09
mm/ mes( Meyer) 57.34 47.63 47.28 51.17 45.27 53.78 61.33 70.91 75.21 64.20 64.06 62.69 58.41
DATOS CLIMÁTICOS ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGOS SET OCT NOV DIC PROM
TEMPERATURA (ºC) 16.76 16.28 16.87 16.83 17.32 16.63 16.32 17.08 17.91 17.40 16.95 17.61 17.00
TEMPERATURA (ºF) 62.17 61.30 62.37 62.29 63.18 61.93 61.38 62.74 64.24 63.32 62.51 63.70 62.59
HUM. RELAT. (%) 61.62 62.85 62.62 62.62 58.31 56.00 53.23 53.92 54.46 57.69 56.15 56.85 58.03
PP (mm/mes) 67.98 69.48 92.49 41.69 15.11 4.58 4.83 5.55 14.17 37.83 45.42 69.62 39.06
P.EFECTIVA (75%) 45.70 51.95 39.91 24.72 2.93 1.74 1.91 0.09 8.76 28.16 41.50 45.84 24.43
,- DATOS DE TEMPERATURA Y DE HUMEDAD RELATIVA SE OBTUVO DE TABLAS PROPORCIONADAS POR EL ING. OSWALDO ORTIZ, VERA.
,- PRECIPITACIÓN EFECTIVA (75%) SE OBTUVO DE LAS CURVAS DE PERSISTENCIA , DEL TRATAMIENTO ESTADÍSTICO DE LA ESTACIÓN CHANCAY,
°
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Tabla Nº 01
COEFICIENTE MENSUAL DE EVAPOTRANSPIRACIÓN (MF)
(FACTOR DE LATITUD MENSUAL)
Latitud MESES
ºS E F M A M J J A S O N D
1 2.788 2.177 2.354 2.197 2.137 1.900 2.091 2.216 2.256 2.358 2.234 2.265
2 2.371 2.136 2.357 2.182 2.108 1.956 2.050 2.194 2.251 2.372 2.263 2.301
3 2.393 2.154 2.360 2.167 2.079 1.922 2.026 2.172 2.246 2.386 2.290 2.337
4 2.385 2.172 2.362 2.151 2.050 1.888 1.993 2.150 2.240 2.398 2.318 2.372
5 2.416 2.189 2.363 2.134 2.020 1.854 1.960 2.126 2.234 2.411 2.345 2.407
6 2.447 2.205 2.363 2.117 1.980 1.820 1.976 2.103 2.226 2.422 2.371 2.442
7 2.478 2.221 2.363 2.099 1.959 1.785 1.893 2.078 2.218 2.433 2.397 2.476
8 2.508 2.237 2.362 2.081 1.927 1.750 1.858 2.054 2.210 2.443 2.423 2.510
9 2.538 2.251 2.360 2.062 1.896 1.715 1.824 2.028 2.201 2.453 2.448 2.544
10 2.567 2.266 2.357 2.043 1.864 1.679 1.789 2.003 2.191 2.462 2.473 2.577
11 2.596 2.279 2.354 2.023 1.832 1.644 1.754 1.976 2.180 2.470 2.497 2.610
12 2.625 2.292 2.350 2.002 1.799 1.608 1.719 1.950 2.169 2.477 2.520 2.643
13 2.652 2.305 2.345 1.981 1.767 1.572 1.684 1.922 2.157 2.484 2.543 2.675
14 2.680 2.317 2.340 1.959 1.733 1.536 1.648 1.895 2.144 2.490 2.566 2.706
15 2.707 2.238 2.334 1.937 1.700 1.500 1.612 1.867 2.131 1.496 2.588 2.738
16 2.734 2.339 2.327 1.914 1.666 1.464 1.576 1.838 2.117 2.500 2.610 2.678
17 2.760 2.349 2.319 1.891 1.632 1.427 1.540 1.809 2.103 2.504 2.631 2.799
18 2.785 2.359 2.314 1.867 1.598 1.391 1.504 1.780 2.088 2.508 2.651 2.830
19 2.811 2.368 2.302 1.843 1.564 1.354 1.467 1.750 2.072 2.510 2.671 2.859
20 2.835 2.377 2.293 1.818 1.329 1.318 1.431 1.719 2.056 2.512 2.691 2.889
Fuente: Estudio FAO Riego y Drenaje N°24. Las necesidades de agua de los cultivos.Roma 1976 pag. 25
F.lati 2.49 2.23 2.36 2.09 1.95 1.77 1.88 2.07 2.21 2.44 2.41 2.49
Cuadro N° 2
EVAPOTRANSPIRACIÓN POTENCIAL (ETP)
C 0.166 (100 H r ) 6.37 6.17 6.21 6.21 6.92 7.30 7.76 7.65 7.56 7.02 7.28 7.16
COEF DE H° R° MENSUAL ( C )
COEF DE H° R° MENSUAL ( C >1) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ETP F .TF .C mm/mes 154.8 136.6 147.3 130.3 122.9 109.6 115.3 129.8 142.3 154.3 150.5 158.6
ETp - Evapotranspiración Potencial
CULTIVO ÁREA ENE FEB MAR ABR MAYO JUN JUL AGOST SET OCT NOV
CEBADA 100
HORTALIZAS 100
MAIZ 100
ARVEJA 100
TRIGO 100
FRIJOL 100
PAPA 100
Área Cultivada (Ha) 500 500 500 400 500 300 200 200 200 300 300
CÉDULA DE CULTIVO N° 01
CULTIVO ÁREA ENE FEB MAR ABR MAYO JUN JUL AGOST SET OCT NOV
CEBADA 100 0.43 0.52 0.9 1.7 0.85
HORTALIZAS 100 0.32 0.46 0.42 1.09 0.96
MAIZ 100 0.98 1.18 1.1 0.88 0.56 0.46 0.54
ARVEJA 100 0.44 0.58 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.2
TRIGO 100 0.43 0.52 0.76 0.98 0.7
FRIJOL 100 1.6 1.1 0.82 0.48 0.58
PAPA 100 0.46 0.54 0.80 1.04 1.034 0.84
Áreas Cultivadas (Ha) 500 500 500 400 500 300 200 200 200 300 300
Dias del mes 31 28 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30
ETP (mm/mes) 154.8 136.6 147.3 130.3 122.9 109.6 115.3 129.8 142.3 154.3 150.5
Kcp 0.78 0.78 0.90 1.24 0.85 0.71 0.48 0.95 1.00 0.66 0.65
ETR 120.1 106.5 132.0 161.6 104.0 77.5 55.3 122.6 142.3 101.5 98.3
Ll 0 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Lt 120.1 106.5 132.0 161.6 104.0 77.5 55.3 122.6 142.3 101.5 98.3
Pe 75% (mm) 45.70 51.95 39.91 24.72 2.93 1.74 1.91 0.09 8.76 28.16 41.50
D = Pe-ETR -74.45 -54.57 -92.11 -136.84 -101.06 -75.74 -53.43 -122.52 -133.51 -73.38 -56.83
BH (mm) -74.45 -54.57 -92.11 -136.84 -101.06 -75.74 -53.43 -122.52 -133.51 -73.38 -56.83
Ln (mm) 74.45 54.57 92.11 136.84 101.06 75.74 53.43 122.52 133.51 73.38 56.83
Qn (L/S*Ha) 0.28 0.23 0.34 0.53 0.38 0.29 0.20 0.46 0.52 0.27 0.22
Et (%) = Ec.Ed.Ea 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31
Qb (L/S*Ha) 0.91 0.74 1.12 1.73 1.23 0.95 0.65 1.49 1.68 0.90 0.72
Qr (m3/s) 0.45 0.37 0.56 0.69 0.62 0.29 0.13 0.30 0.34 0.27 0.21
Qd (m3/s) 0.69
CULTIVO ÁREA ENE FEB MAR ABR MAYO JUN JUL AGOST SET OCT NOV
MAIZ 100
CEBADA 100
PAPA 100
FRIJOL 100
TRIGO 100
PASTOS 100
ARVEJA 100
Área Cultivada (Ha) 600 600 600 500 500 300 200 200 200 400 400
CÉDULA DE CULTIVO N° 02
CULTIVO ÁREA ENE FEB MAR ABR MAYO JUN JUL AGOST SET OCT NOV
MAIZ 100 0.98 1.18 1.1 0.88 0.56 0.46 0.54
CEBADA 100 0.43 0.52 0.9 1.7 0.85
PAPA 100 0.46 0.54 0.80 1.04 1.034 0.84
FRIJOL 100 1.6 1.1 0.82 0.48 0.58
TRIGO 100 0.43 0.52 0.76 0.98 0.7
PASTOS 100 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ARVEJA 100 0.44 1 1 1.4 1.8 1.2
Área Cultivada (Ha) 600 600 600 500 500 300 200 200 200 400 400
Dias del mes 31 29 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30
ETP (mm/mes) 154.3 136.3 147.4 130.6 123.5 110.3 115.9 130.2 142.4 154.1 150.0
Kcp 0.81 0.89 0.93 1.19 0.98 0.89 0.77 0.90 1.02 0.74 0.74
ETR 125.5 120.8 137.0 155.7 121.3 97.8 89.3 117.2 145.3 114.6 111.0
Ll 0 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Lt 125.5 120.8 137.0 155.7 121.3 97.8 89.3 117.2 145.3 114.6 111.0
Pe 75% (mm) 47.73 56.88 60.34 55.87 23.69 3.33 1.88 1.70 15.06 57.05 54.79
D=Pe-ETR -77.75 -63.95 -76.71 -99.83 -97.61 -94.46 -87.38 -115.48 -130.20 -57.55 -56.23
BH (mm) -77.75 -63.95 -76.71 -99.83 -97.61 -94.46 -87.38 -115.48 -130.20 -57.55 -56.23
Ln (mm) 77.75 63.95 76.71 99.83 97.61 94.46 87.38 115.48 130.20 57.55 56.23
Qn (L/s*Ha) 0.29 0.26 0.29 0.39 0.36 0.36 0.33 0.43 0.50 0.21 0.22
Et (%) = Ec.Ed.Ea 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31
Qb (L/s*Ha) 0.95 0.83 0.94 1.26 1.19 1.19 1.07 1.41 1.64 0.70 0.71
Qr (m3/seg) 0.57 0.50 0.56 0.63 0.60 0.36 0.21 0.28 0.33 0.28 0.28
Qd (m3/s) 0.63
DIC
200
DIC
0.72
0.88
200
31
158.6
0.80
126.9
--
126.9
45.84
-81.05
-81.05
81.05
0.30
0.31
0.99
0.20
DIC
300
DIC
0.72
0.88
300
31
158.0
0.87
136.9
--
136.9
45.84
-91.07
-91.07
91.07
0.34
0.31
1.11
0.33