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Noticia
No lo hizo Los republicanos perdieron en los distritos de la casa con bajas tasas de
desempleo. Perdieron en los distritos que han ganado puestos de trabajo de
fabricación. Perdieron en distritos que obtuvieron grandes recortes de impuestos. Y
perdieron abrumadoramente en el tipo de suburbios ricos y educados que han
experimentado la recuperación general más fuerte, y que alguna vez estuvieron
entre los distritos republicanos más confiables.
Los republicanos habían perdido 30 escaños netos en la Cámara a partir del viernes
por la tarde, y probablemente perderán algunos más una vez que se cuenten todos
los votos. Es posible, por supuesto, que las pérdidas republicanas hayan sido aún
mayores si no fuera por la fuerte economía. Pero hubo pocos indicios de ello en los
resultados a nivel de distrito: muchas de las elecciones de los demócratas llegaron
en lugares donde la economía, al menos según las medidas estándar, es fuerte.
A los republicanos les fue mejor en el Senado, pero tampoco hay indicios de que la
economía fuera un factor importante en esas elecciones. Kevin Cramer, un
republicano, venció a la senadora Heidi Heitkamp en Dakota del Norte, que tiene la
tasa de desempleo más baja de la nación, 2.7 por ciento. Pero en la vecina
Minnesota, donde la tasa es solo una décima de punto porcentual más alta, la
titular demócrata, Amy Klobuchar, logró una victoria de 24 puntos.
Unemployment is abnormally low. Growth has sped up. A $1.5 trillion tax cut,
signed by President Trump last year, is fueling consumer spending. Faced with
strong Democratic enthusiasm and fund-raising, and hindered by an unpopular
president, Republicans were counting on that economic strength to lift them at the
polls, or at least limit the damage.
It didn’t. Republicans lost in House districts with low unemployment rates. They
lost in districts that have gained manufacturing jobs. They lost in districts that got
big tax cuts. And they lost overwhelmingly in the kind of affluent, educated suburbs
that have experienced the strongest overall recovery — and that were once among
the most reliable Republican districts.
Republicans had lost 30 net seats in the House as of Friday afternoon, and will
probably lose a few more once all the votes are counted. It is possible, of course,
that Republican losses might have been even larger were it not for the strong
economy. But there was little sign of that in district-level results: Many of the
Democrats’ pickups came in places where the economy, at least by standard
measures, is strong.
Republicans fared better in the Senate, but there is no sign that the economy was a
major factor in those races, either. Kevin Cramer, a Republican, unseated Senator
Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, which has the nation’s lowest unemployment
rate, 2.7 percent. But in neighboring Minnesota, where the rate is just a tenth of a
percentage point higher, the Democratic incumbent, Amy Klobuchar, cruised to a
24-point victory.
Analyzing the role of the economy in elections is particularly difficult in the Senate
because there are fewer races and senators represent entire states, in which
economic conditions can vary by area. But Tuesday’s results do not appear to align
with measures of state economic health.
If the economy was going to save Republicans anywhere, it should have been in
Minnesota’s Second Congressional District, where the unemployment rate was 2.5
percent in the third quarter of the year — down a percentage point in the past two
years — and where the typical household earned more than $80,000 in 2017.
Yet the Republican incumbent, Jason Lewis, lost by more than five points to a local
businesswoman, Angie Craig, whom he had beaten in a tight election two years
earlier.
Ms. Craig wasn’t the only Democrat who found success in a part of the country
where the economy is exceptionally strong. Republican incumbents were defending
eight seats that are among the 25 districts where unemployment is lowest. They
lost five, including two districts each in Minnesota and Iowa, where the local
unemployment rate is below 3 percent.
Of the 25 House districts with the highest unemployment rates heading into
Election Day, 10 had Republican incumbents. At least nine of those incumbents
won, by an average of more than 30 points; the 10th race, in California, has not yet
produced a result.
Ms. Craig wasn’t the only Democrat who found success in a part of
the country where the economy is exceptionally strong. Republican
incumbents were defending eight seats that are among the 25
districts where unemployment is lowest. They lost five, including two
districts each in Minnesota and Iowa, where the local unemployment
rate is below 3 percent.