LA FROMULA DE MALTHUS ES LA SIGUIENTE

AÑO N° DE HABITANTES INCREMENTO VALOR Δ AÑO ENTRE PF=Pa(1+Δ)^X

1900 1718 AÑOS F=
1910 1923 205 0.11932 10 PF= POBLACION FUTURA
1921 926 -997 -0.51846 11 Pa= POBLACION ACTUAL (ULT
1930 705 -221 -0.23866 9 X= PERIODO DEL ULTIMO CEN
1940 502 -203 -0.28794 10 N= DIFERENCIA ENTRE EL AÑ
1950 494 -8 -0.01594 10 Δ= INCREMENTO MEDIO ANU
1960 253 -241 -0.48785 10 X=
1970 453 200 0.79051 10 Pa=
1980 403 -50 -0.11038 10 pa=
1990 577 174 0.43176 10
1995 751 174 0.30156 5
2000 843 92 0.12250 5
2005 1055 212 0.25148 5
2010 1263 208 0.19716 5
0 0 0 0.00000 0
0 0 0 #DIV/0! 0
0 0 0 #DIV/0! 0
0 0 0 #DIV/0! 0
0 0 0 #DIV/0! 0
0 0 0 #DIV/0! 0

SUMA= 0.55507 110

PROMEDIO Δ= 0.0427 8.4615385
 PF=Pa(1+Δ)^X
5
F= POBLACION FUTURA
a= POBLACION ACTUAL (ULTIMO SDENSO)
= PERIODO DEL ULTIMO CENSO Y AÑO ACTUAL ( DECADAS)
= DIFERENCIA ENTRE EL AÑO 2010 Y 2014
= INCREMENTO MEDIO ANUAL
0.59
1294.59
1295.00
 METODO DEL INEGI
AÑO N° DE HABIT AÑO ENTRE Pa/pi raiz B
1900 1718 N= AÑOS A PROYECTAR
1910 1923 10 1.11933 1.01134 0.01134 N=
1921 926 11 0.48154 0.93573 -0.06427
1930 705 9 0.76134 0.97016 -0.02984
1940 502 10 0.71206 0.96661 -0.03339
1950 494 10 0.98407 0.99840 -0.00160 Pf=
1960 253 10 0.51215 0.93528 -0.06472
1970 453 10 1.79052 1.05998 0.05998 B= tasa de crecimiento intercensal
1980 403 10 0.88963 0.98837 -0.01163 B=
1990 577 10 1.43177 1.03654 0.03654
1995 751 5 1.30156 1.05413 0.05413
2000 843 5 1.12251 1.02338 0.02338 Pa=
2005 1055 5 1.25149 1.04589 0.04589
2010 1263 5 1.19716 1.03665 0.03665
0 0 0 pf=
0 0 0 pf=
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0

SUMA= 0.06245
B PROMEDIO 0.00480
= AÑOS A PROYECTAR
5 AÑOS

Pa( 1+ b)^N

= tasa de crecimiento intercensal

0.0048037

1263

1293.63
1294.00
 metodo de los minimos cuadrados
N AÑO N° DE HABITANTES T^2 P^2 tp in p in t
1 1900 1718 3610000.00 2951524.00 3264200.00 7.4489161 7.54960917
2 1910 1923 3648100.00 3697929.00 3672930.00 7.56164175 7.55485852
3 1921 926 3690241.00 857476.00 1778846.00 6.83087423 7.56060116
4 1930 705 3724900.00 497025.00 1360650.00 6.5581978 7.56527528
5 1940 502 3763600.00 252004.00 973880.00 6.21860012 7.57044325
6 1950 494 3802500.00 244036.00 963300.00 6.20253552 7.57558465
7 1960 253 3841600.00 64009.00 495880.00 5.53338949 7.58069975
8 1970 453 3880900.00 205209.00 892410.00 6.11589213 7.58578882
9 1980 403 3920400.00 162409.00 797940.00 5.99893656 7.59085212
10 1990 577 3960100.00 332929.00 1148230.00 6.35784227 7.59588992
11 1995 751 3980025.00 564001.00 1498245.00 6.62140565 7.59839933
12 2000 843 4000000.00 710649.00 1686000.00 6.73696696 7.60090246
13 2005 1055 4020025.00 1113025.00 2115275.00 6.96129605 7.60339934
14 2010 1263 4040100.00 1595169.00 2538630.00 7.14124512 7.60589
Σ= 27461 11866 53882491 13247394 23186416 92.2877397 106.138194
t.inp (in t)^2 (in p)^2 int*p (int)*(inp) VALOR A
14152.9406 56.99660 55.48635 12970.22855 56.23641 A. LINEAL 10660.10
14442.7357 57.07589 57.17843 14527.99294 57.12713 A. EXPONENCIAL 1599215.54
13122.1094 57.16269 46.66084 7001.11668 51.64552 A. LOGARITMO 76335.3989964402
12657.3218 57.23339 43.00996 5333.51907 49.61457 A.POTENCIAL 6.1900100718E+28
12064.0842 57.31161 38.67099 3800.36251 47.07756
12094.9443 57.38948 38.47145 3742.33882 46.98783 N 14
10845.4434 57.46701 30.61840 1917.91704 41.94696 A 2015
12048.3075 57.54419 37.40414 3436.36234 46.39387
11877.8944 57.62104 35.98724 3059.11341 45.53704
12652.1061 57.69754 40.42216 4382.82848 48.29347
13209.7043 57.73567 43.84301 5706.39790 50.31208
13473.9339 57.77372 45.38672 6407.56077 51.20703
13957.3986 57.81168 48.45964 8021.58630 52.92951
14353.9027 57.84956 50.99738 9606.23907 54.31552
180952.827 804.670075 612.59671 89913.56387 699.62451
B R P.ACTUAL
-5.00256 -0.3730444 579.934207
-0.00392 -0.2537572 591.199389
-9957.1092 -0.3794782 577.983506
-7.8750797 -0.2604049 589.199166