DEMANDA EN ENERGIA

LA PUNTA Y (ajuste exponenciaError % 3 Error

95 59 1
94 57 2 95.00 1 0.0106383
97 59 3 94.01 8.9388796 0.0308226
99 59 4 96.97 4.1229632 0.0205102 95.33 13.44
101 64 5 98.98 4.0833072 0.0200071 96.67 18.78
100 62 6 100.98 0.959186 0.0097938 99.00 1.00
98 62 7 100.01 4.0400746 0.0205101 100.00 4.00
103 64 8 98.02 24.795319 0.0483446 99.67 11.11
108 68 9 102.95 25.510693 0.0467668 100.33 58.78
107 67 10 107.95 0.8995785 0.0088641 103.00 16.00
104 65 11 107.01 9.0581627 0.0289392 106.00 4.00
93 59 12 104.03 121.67659 0.1186098 106.33 177.78
97 57 13 93.11 15.112203 0.0400767 101.33 18.78
95 58 14 96.96 3.8429024 0.0206351 98.00 9.00
95 56 15 95.02 0.0004001 0.0002106 95.00 0.00
93 55 16 95.00 4.0008165 0.0215076 95.67 7.11
88 59 17 93.02 25.204519 0.0570501 94.33 40.11
98 60 18 88.05 98.978051 0.1015181 92.00 36.00
99 61 19 97.90 1.2133421 0.0111264 93.00 36.00
104 67 20 98.99 25.112526 0.048185 95.00 81.00
105 68 21 103.95 1.104885 0.0100108 100.33 21.78
108 70 22 104.99 9.0644703 0.0278771 102.67 28.44
111 70 23 107.97 9.185274 0.0273038 105.67 28.44
112 69 24 110.97 1.0628079 0.0092047 108.00 16.00
98 59 25 111.99 195.70556 0.1427498 110.33 152.11
96 57 26 98.14 4.5913767 0.0223203 107.00 121.00
101 61 27 96.02 24.78183 0.0492885 102.00 1.00
102 58 28 100.95 1.104175 0.0103019 98.33 13.44
97 61 29 101.99 24.892891 0.0514359 99.67 7.11
102 61 30 97.05 24.493482 0.0485205 100.00 4.00
104 63 31 101.95 4.204554 0.0197164 100.33 13.44
109 70 32 103.98 25.209673 0.0460635 101.00 64.00
117 74 33 108.95 64.822368 0.068814 105.00 144.00
124 79 34 116.92 50.156926 0.0571142 110.00 196.00
118 75 35 123.93 35.13802 0.050235 116.67 1.78
114 67 36 118.06 16.487555 0.0356183 119.67 32.11
108 69 37 114.04 36.498919 0.0559392 118.67 113.78
103 65 38 108.06 25.620273 0.0491422 113.33 106.78
108 63 39 103.05 24.486173 0.0458181 108.33 0.11
107 66 40 107.95 0.9015628 0.0088739 106.33 0.44
118 70 41 107.01 120.78694 0.0931382 106.00 144.00
112 68 42 117.89 34.666824 0.0525701 111.00 1.00
119 74 43 112.06 48.162488 0.0583187 112.33 44.44
127 81 44 118.93 65.138063 0.0635497 116.33 113.78
135 87 45 126.92 65.324467 0.0598693 119.33 245.44
132 87 46 134.92 8.5119637 0.0221025 127.00 25.00
127 84 47 132.03 25.298593 0.0396045 131.33 18.78
130 85 48 127.05 8.694689 0.0226821 131.33 1.78
119 77 49 129.97 120.33896 0.0921841 129.67 113.78
121 79 50 119.11 3.5647786 0.0156038 125.33 18.78
111 65 51 120.98 99.615052 0.0899165 123.33 152.11
107 67 52 111.10 16.825126 0.038335 117.00 100.00
111 68 53 107.04 15.666907 0.035659 113.00 4.00
112 69 54 110.96 1.0824097 0.0092892 109.67 5.44
113 70 55 111.99 1.0213451 0.0089435 110.00 9.00
122 80 56 112.99 81.18573 0.073855 112.00 100.00
126 84 57 121.91 16.743989 0.0324757 115.67 106.78
132 85 58 125.96 36.502798 0.0457709 120.33 136.11
128 88 59 131.94 15.510596 0.0307684 126.67 1.78
114 87 60 128.04 197.12686 0.1231595 128.67 215.11
112 76 61 114.14 4.5935944 0.0191363 124.67 160.44
121 77 62 112.02 80.606817 0.0741994 118.00 9.00
131 76 63 120.91 101.84066 0.0770352 115.67 235.11
128 75 64 130.90 8.3927501 0.022633 121.33 44.44
127 80 65 128.03 1.0599968 0.0081068 126.67 0.11
130 84 66 127.01 8.937076 0.0229961 128.67 1.78
128 84 67 129.97 3.8789104 0.0153867 128.33 0.11
139 88 68 128.02 120.55827 0.0789921 128.33 113.78
144 97 69 138.89 26.132951 0.0355003 132.33 136.11
134 95 70 143.95 98.959448 0.0742376 137.00 9.00
134 96 71 134.10 0.010304 0.0007575 139.00 25.00
132 85 72 134.00 4.0041443 0.0151594 137.33 28.44
124 83 73 132.02 64.327117 0.0646808 133.33 87.11
129 82 74 124.08 24.188288 0.0381253 130.00 1.00
126 77 75 128.95 8.7014068 0.0234112 128.33 5.44
132 83 76 126.03 35.639704 0.0452265 126.33 32.11
133 84 77 131.94 1.1255456 0.0079768 129.00 16.00
137 92 78 132.99 16.086723 0.0292761 130.33 44.44
137 90 79 136.96 0.001675 0.0002987 134.00 9.00
149 98 80 137.00 144.01002 0.0805397 135.67 177.78
150 104 81 148.88 1.2599013 0.007483 141.00 81.00
159 103 82 149.99 81.206296 0.0566758 145.33 186.78
144 99 83 158.91 222.24985 0.1035281 152.67 75.11
143 91 84 144.15 1.3273872 0.0080568 151.00 64.00
136 94 85 143.01 49.164727 0.051557 148.67 160.44
133 90 86 136.07 9.4344104 0.0230943 141.00 64.00
137 92 87 133.03 15.750244 0.0289683 137.33 0.11
138 91 88 136.96 1.082633 0.0075398 135.33 7.11
142 97 89 137.99 16.085051 0.0282438 136.00 36.00
145 100 90 141.96 9.2472228 0.0209719 139.00 36.00
145 94 91 144.97 0.0009629 0.000214 141.67 11.11
156 113 92 145.00 121.00697 0.0705149 144.00 144.00
155 109 93 155.89 0.7881034 0.0057274 148.67 40.11
158 114 94 155.01 8.9457299 0.01893 152.00 36.00
155 108 95 157.97 8.8178126 0.0191579 156.33 1.78
169 107 96 155.03 195.1525 0.0826609 156.00 169.00
141 95 97 168.86 776.03763 0.1975706 160.67 386.78
139 95 98 141.28 5.2178424 0.0164335 155.00 256.00
140 93 99 139.02 0.9539258 0.0069764 149.67 93.44
137 98 100 139.99 8.9403019 0.0218251 140.00 9.00
140 102 101 137.03 8.8178676 0.0212106 138.67 1.78
145 106 102 139.97 25.303927 0.0346917 139.00 36.00
156 106 103 144.95 122.13189 0.0708419 140.67 235.11
164 113 104 155.89 65.817015 0.0494681 147.00 289.00
168 119 105 163.92 16.66912 0.0243023 155.00 169.00
173 120 106 167.96 25.418346 0.0291425 162.67 106.78
167 117 107 172.95 35.3853 0.0356201 168.33 1.78
167 116 108 167.06 0.0036844 0.0003635 169.33 5.44
160 111 109 167.00 49.008672 0.0437539 169.00 81.00
152 101 110 160.07 65.148061 0.0531015 164.67 160.44
158 104 111 152.08 35.018444 0.0374534 159.67 2.78
164 105 112 157.94 36.728255 0.0369536 156.67 53.78
165 112 113 163.94 1.1275056 0.0064354 158.00 49.00
162 111 114 164.99 8.9351067 0.0184516 162.33 0.11
162 109 115 162.03 0.0009304 0.0001883 163.67 2.78
166 116 116 162.00 15.99751 0.0240945 163.00 9.00
173 122 117 165.96 49.57305 0.0406983 163.33 93.44
173 123 118 172.93 0.0051617 0.0004153 167.00 36.00
176 122 119 173.00 9.0043992 0.0170496 170.67 28.44
169 118 120 175.97 48.572261 0.0412389 174.00 25.00
158 111 121 169.07 122.56961 0.0700704 172.67 215.11
167 107 122 158.11 78.979292 0.0532157 167.67 0.44
162 109 123 166.91 24.101384 0.0303044 164.67 7.11
169 110 124 162.05 48.301179 0.0411237 162.33 44.44
175 117 125 168.93 36.856038 0.034691 166.00 81.00
171 120 126 174.94 15.508252 0.0230295 168.67 5.44
175 121 127 171.04 15.680141 0.0226275 171.67 11.11
181 127 128 174.96 36.486508 0.0333724 173.67 53.78
181 128 129 180.94 0.0037991 0.0003405 175.67 28.44
186 129 130 181.00 25.00629 0.0268851 179.00 49.00
182 125 131 185.95 15.594389 0.0216977 182.67 0.44
184 123 132 182.04 3.8404412 0.0106506 183.00 1.00
184 121 133 183.98 0.0003999 0.0001087 184.00 0.00
181 118 134 184.00 8.9987757 0.0165735 183.33 5.44
185 121 135 181.03 15.756056 0.0214562 183.00 4.00
187 121 136 184.96 4.1636565 0.0109118 183.33 13.44
190 126 137 186.98 9.1253623 0.0158991 184.33 32.11
191 129 138 189.97 1.0625996 0.005397 187.33 13.44
188 129 139 190.99 8.9369989 0.0159015 189.33 1.78
205 142 140 188.03 287.96376 0.082778 189.67 235.11
216 150 141 204.83 124.83946 0.0517276 194.67 455.11
219 152 142 215.89 9.6970696 0.0142192 203.00 256.00
221 154 143 218.97 4.1281122 0.0091936 213.33 58.78
221 150 144 220.98 0.0004298 9.381E-05 218.67 5.44
208 137 145 221.00 168.9945 0.062499 220.33 152.11
200 133 146 208.13 66.140011 0.0406633 216.67 277.78
204 140 147 200.08 15.342997 0.019201 209.67 32.11
211 136 148 203.96 49.561171 0.0333648 204.00 49.00
216 140 149 210.93 25.723525 0.0234807 205.00 121.00
212 142 150 215.95 15.588651 0.0186238 210.33 2.78
208 142 151 212.04 16.323929 0.0194245 213.00 25.00
226 156 152 208.04 322.51751 0.0794636 212.00 196.00
238 167 153 225.82 148.43165 0.0511901 215.33 513.78
241 170 154 237.88 9.7613686 0.012964 224.00 289.00
239 163 155 240.97 3.8734932 0.0082348 235.00 16.00
232 159 156 239.02 49.281563 0.030259 239.33 53.78
221 146 157 232.07 122.58107 0.0500979 237.33 266.78
222 148 158 221.11 0.7868118 0.0039956 230.67 75.11
216 145 159 221.99 35.891467 0.0277359 225.00 81.00
226 146 160 216.06 98.781095 0.0439773 219.67 40.11
233 157 161 225.90 50.430124 0.0304782 221.33 136.11
237 158 162 232.93 16.584958 0.0171834 225.00 144.00
235 161 163 236.96 3.8355039 0.0083338 232.00 9.00
248 175 164 235.02 168.48081 0.0523388 235.00 169.00
260 186 165 247.87 147.19632 0.0466633 240.00 400.00
260 185 166 259.88 0.0153266 0.0004762 247.67 152.11
248 183 167 260.00 143.96968 0.048382 256.00 64.00
257 181 168 248.12 78.811141 0.0345431 256.00 1.00
236 161 169 256.91 437.20354 0.0885992 255.00 361.00
247 167 170 236.21 116.35157 0.0436706 247.00 0.00
246 163 171 246.89 0.7919794 0.0036176 246.67 0.44
253 167 172 246.01 48.872949 0.0276321 243.00 100.00
255 171 173 252.93 4.2904324 0.0081229 248.67 40.11
258 179 174 254.98 9.1272632 0.0117098 251.33 44.44
256 182 175 257.97 3.8776387 0.0076921 255.33 0.44
260 182 176 256.02 15.839655 0.0153073 256.33 13.44
259 192 177 259.96 0.9204267 0.0037042 258.00 1.00
272 195 178 259.01 168.74556 0.0477581 258.33 186.78
272 192 179 271.87 0.0175703 0.0004873 263.67 69.44
274 188 180 272.00 4.0054122 0.0073042 267.67 40.11
255 171 181 273.98 360.22438 0.0744297 272.67 312.11
255 181 182 255.19 0.0375077 0.0007595 267.00 144.00
250 179 183 255.00 25.019766 0.0200079 261.33 128.44
274 188 184 250.05 573.55266 0.087405 253.33 427.11
277 196 185 273.76 10.525983 0.0117126 259.67 300.44
274 194 186 276.97 8.8024607 0.0108281 267.00 49.00
273 200 187 274.03 1.0614654 0.0037739 275.00 4.00
286 211 188 273.01 168.72677 0.0454178 274.67 128.44
300 219 189 285.87 199.72885 0.0471085 277.67 498.78
305 223 190 299.86 26.462893 0.0168663 286.33 348.44
302 212 191 304.95 8.6878038 0.00976 297.00 25.00
292 200 192 302.03 100.60244 0.0343496 302.33 106.78
270 187 193 292.10 488.51377 0.0818605 299.67 880.11
271 177 194 270.23 0.5997973 0.0028578 288.00 289.00
268 180 195 270.99 8.9526462 0.0111645 277.67 93.44
268.03 269.67
% 4 Error % 5 Error % 0.9897959

0.04
0.04 96.25 22.5625 0.0470297
0.01 97.75 5.0625 0.0225 97.2 7.84 0.028
0.02 99.25 1.5625 0.0127551 98.2 0.04 0.0020408
0.03 99.50 12.25 0.0339806 99 16 0.038835
0.07 100.50 56.25 0.0694444 100.2 60.84 0.0722222
0.04 102.25 22.5625 0.0443925 102 25 0.046729
0.02 104.00 0 0 103.2 0.64 0.0076923
0.14 105.50 156.25 0.1344086 104 121 0.1182796
0.04 103.00 36 0.0618557 103 36 0.0618557
0.03 100.25 27.5625 0.0552632 101.8 46.24 0.0715789
0.00 97.25 5.0625 0.0236842 99.2 17.64 0.0442105
0.03 95.00 4 0.0215054 96.8 14.44 0.0408602
0.07 95.00 49 0.0795455 94.6 43.56 0.075
0.06 92.75 27.5625 0.0535714 93.6 19.36 0.044898
0.06 93.50 30.25 0.0555556 93.8 27.04 0.0525253
0.09 94.50 90.25 0.0913462 94.6 88.36 0.0903846
0.04 97.25 60.0625 0.0738095 96.4 73.96 0.0819048
0.05 101.50 42.25 0.0601852 98.8 84.64 0.0851852
0.05 104.00 49 0.0630631 102.8 67.24 0.0738739
0.04 107.00 25 0.0446429 105.4 43.56 0.0589286
0.13 109.00 121 0.1122449 108 100 0.1020408
0.11 107.25 126.5625 0.1171875 106.8 116.64 0.1125
0.01 104.25 10.5625 0.0321782 105 16 0.039604
0.04 101.75 0.0625 0.002451 103.6 2.56 0.0156863
0.03 99.25 5.0625 0.0231959 101.8 23.04 0.0494845
0.02 99.00 9 0.0294118 98.8 10.24 0.0313725
0.04 100.50 12.25 0.0336538 99.6 19.36 0.0423077
0.07 101.25 60.0625 0.0711009 101.2 60.84 0.0715596
0.10 103.00 196 0.1196581 102.8 201.64 0.1213675
0.11 108.00 256 0.1290323 105.8 331.24 0.1467742
0.01 113.50 20.25 0.0381356 111.2 46.24 0.0576271
0.05 117.00 9 0.0263158 114.4 0.16 0.0035088
0.10 118.25 105.0625 0.0949074 116.4 70.56 0.0777778
0.10 116.00 169 0.1262136 116.2 174.24 0.1281553
0.00 110.75 7.5625 0.025463 113.4 29.16 0.05
0.01 108.25 1.5625 0.0116822 110.2 10.24 0.0299065
0.10 106.50 132.25 0.0974576 108 100 0.0847458
0.01 109.00 9 0.0267857 108.8 10.24 0.0285714
0.06 111.25 60.0625 0.0651261 109.6 88.36 0.0789916
0.08 114.00 169 0.1023622 112.8 201.64 0.111811
0.12 119.00 256 0.1185185 116.6 338.56 0.1362963
0.04 123.25 76.5625 0.0662879 122.2 96.04 0.0742424
0.03 128.25 1.5625 0.0098425 125 4 0.015748
0.01 130.25 0.0625 0.0019231 128 4 0.0153846
0.09 131.00 144 0.1008403 130.2 125.44 0.0941176
0.04 127.00 36 0.0495868 128.6 57.76 0.0628099
0.11 124.25 175.5625 0.1193694 125.8 219.04 0.1333333
0.09 120.25 175.5625 0.1238318 121.6 213.16 0.1364486
0.02 114.50 12.25 0.0315315 117.6 43.56 0.0594595
0.02 112.50 0.25 0.0044643 113.8 3.24 0.0160714
0.03 110.25 7.5625 0.0243363 112.4 0.36 0.0053097
0.08 110.75 126.5625 0.0922131 110.8 125.44 0.0918033
0.08 114.50 132.25 0.0912698 113 169 0.1031746
0.09 118.25 189.0625 0.1041667 116.8 231.04 0.1151515
0.01 123.25 22.5625 0.0371094 121 49 0.0546875
0.13 127.00 169 0.1140351 124.2 104.04 0.0894737
0.11 125.00 169 0.1160714 124.4 153.76 0.1107143
0.02 121.50 0.25 0.0041322 122.4 1.96 0.0115702
0.12 118.75 150.0625 0.0935115 121.4 92.16 0.0732824
0.05 119.50 72.25 0.0664063 121.2 46.24 0.053125
0.00 123.00 16 0.0314961 121.2 33.64 0.0456693
0.01 126.75 10.5625 0.025 123.8 38.44 0.0476923
0.00 129.00 1 0.0078125 127.4 0.36 0.0046875
0.08 128.25 115.5625 0.0773381 128.8 104.04 0.0733813
0.08 131.00 169 0.0902778 130.4 184.96 0.0944444
0.02 135.25 1.5625 0.0093284 133.6 0.16 0.0029851
0.04 136.25 5.0625 0.016791 135 1 0.0074627
0.04 137.75 33.0625 0.0435606 135.8 14.44 0.0287879
0.08 136.00 144 0.0967742 136.6 158.76 0.1016129
0.01 131.00 4 0.0155039 133.6 21.16 0.0356589
0.02 129.75 14.0625 0.0297619 130.6 21.16 0.0365079
0.04 127.75 18.0625 0.032197 129 9 0.0227273
0.03 127.75 27.5625 0.0394737 128.6 19.36 0.0330827
0.05 130.00 49 0.0510949 128.8 67.24 0.059854
0.02 132.00 25 0.0364964 131.4 31.36 0.0408759
0.09 134.75 203.0625 0.0956376 133 256 0.1073826
0.06 139.00 121 0.0733333 137.6 153.76 0.0826667
0.09 143.25 248.0625 0.0990566 141.2 316.84 0.1119497
0.06 148.75 22.5625 0.0329861 146.4 5.76 0.0166667
0.06 150.50 56.25 0.0524476 147.8 23.04 0.0335664
0.09 149.00 169 0.0955882 149 169 0.0955882
0.06 145.50 156.25 0.093985 146.4 179.56 0.1007519
0.00 139.00 4 0.0145985 143 36 0.0437956
0.02 137.25 0.5625 0.0054348 138.6 0.36 0.0043478
0.04 136.00 36 0.0422535 137.4 21.16 0.0323944
0.04 137.50 56.25 0.0517241 137.2 60.84 0.0537931
0.02 140.50 20.25 0.0310345 139 36 0.0413793
0.08 142.50 182.25 0.0865385 141.4 213.16 0.0935897
0.04 147.00 64 0.0516129 145.2 96.04 0.0632258
0.04 150.25 60.0625 0.0490506 148.6 88.36 0.0594937
0.01 153.50 2.25 0.0096774 151.8 10.24 0.0206452
0.08 156.00 169 0.0769231 153.8 231.04 0.0899408
0.14 159.25 333.0625 0.1294326 158.6 309.76 0.1248227
0.12 155.75 280.5625 0.1205036 155.6 275.56 0.1194245
0.07 151.00 121 0.0785714 152.4 153.76 0.0885714
0.02 147.25 105.0625 0.0748175 148.8 139.24 0.0861314
0.01 139.25 0.5625 0.0053571 145.2 27.04 0.0371429
0.04 139.00 36 0.0413793 139.4 31.36 0.0386207
0.10 140.50 240.25 0.099359 140.2 249.64 0.1012821
0.10 144.50 380.25 0.1189024 143.6 416.16 0.1243902
0.08 151.25 280.5625 0.0997024 148.4 384.16 0.1166667
0.06 158.25 217.5625 0.0852601 154.6 338.56 0.1063584
0.01 165.25 3.0625 0.010479 161.2 33.64 0.0347305
0.01 168.00 1 0.005988 165.6 1.96 0.0083832
0.06 168.75 76.5625 0.0546875 167.8 60.84 0.04875
0.08 166.75 217.5625 0.0970395 167 225 0.0986842
0.01 161.50 12.25 0.0221519 163.8 33.64 0.0367089
0.04 159.25 22.5625 0.0289634 160.8 10.24 0.0195122
0.04 158.50 42.25 0.0393939 160.2 23.04 0.0290909
0.00 159.75 5.0625 0.0138889 159.8 4.84 0.0135802
0.01 162.25 0.0625 0.0015432 160.2 3.24 0.0111111
0.02 163.25 7.5625 0.0165663 162.2 14.44 0.0228916
0.06 163.75 85.5625 0.0534682 163.8 84.64 0.0531792
0.03 165.75 52.5625 0.0419075 165.6 54.76 0.0427746
0.03 168.50 56.25 0.0426136 167.2 77.44 0.05
0.03 172.00 9 0.0177515 170 1 0.0059172
0.09 172.75 217.5625 0.0933544 171.4 179.56 0.0848101
0.00 169.00 4 0.011976 169.8 7.84 0.0167665
0.02 167.50 30.25 0.0339506 168.6 43.56 0.0407407
0.04 164.00 25 0.0295858 166.4 6.76 0.0153846
0.05 164.00 121 0.0628571 165 100 0.0571429
0.01 168.25 7.5625 0.0160819 166.2 23.04 0.0280702
0.02 169.25 33.0625 0.0328571 168.8 38.44 0.0354286
0.04 172.50 72.25 0.0469613 170.4 112.36 0.0585635
0.03 175.50 30.25 0.0303867 174.2 46.24 0.0375691
0.04 177.00 81 0.0483871 176.6 88.36 0.0505376
0.00 180.75 1.5625 0.0068681 178.8 10.24 0.0175824
0.01 182.50 2.25 0.0081522 181 9 0.0163043
0.00 183.25 0.5625 0.0040761 182.8 1.44 0.0065217
0.01 184.00 9 0.0165746 183.4 5.76 0.0132597
0.01 182.75 5.0625 0.0121622 183.4 2.56 0.0086486
0.02 183.50 12.25 0.0187166 183.2 14.44 0.0203209
0.03 184.25 33.0625 0.0302632 184.2 33.64 0.0305263
0.02 185.75 27.5625 0.0274869 185.4 31.36 0.0293194
0.01 188.25 0.0625 0.0013298 186.8 1.44 0.006383
0.07 189.00 256 0.0780488 188.2 282.24 0.0819512
0.10 193.50 506.25 0.1041667 192.2 566.44 0.1101852
0.07 200.00 361 0.086758 198 441 0.0958904
0.03 207.00 196 0.0633484 203.8 295.84 0.0778281
0.01 215.25 33.0625 0.0260181 209.8 125.44 0.0506787
0.06 219.25 126.5625 0.0540865 216.4 70.56 0.0403846
0.08 217.25 297.5625 0.08625 217 289 0.085
0.03 212.50 72.25 0.0416667 213.8 96.04 0.0480392
0.03 208.25 7.5625 0.0130332 210.8 0.04 0.0009479
0.05 205.75 105.0625 0.0474537 208.8 51.84 0.0333333
0.01 207.75 18.0625 0.0200472 207.8 17.64 0.0198113
0.02 210.75 7.5625 0.0132212 208.6 0.36 0.0028846
0.06 211.75 203.0625 0.0630531 210.2 249.64 0.0699115
0.10 215.50 506.25 0.0945378 214.6 547.56 0.0983193
0.07 221.00 400 0.0829876 220 441 0.0871369
0.02 228.25 115.5625 0.0449791 225 196 0.0585774
0.03 236.00 16 0.0172414 230.4 2.56 0.0068966
0.07 237.50 272.25 0.0746606 235.2 201.64 0.0642534
0.04 233.25 126.5625 0.0506757 234.2 148.84 0.054955
0.04 228.50 156.25 0.0578704 231 225 0.0694444
0.03 222.75 10.5625 0.0143805 226 0 0
0.05 221.25 138.0625 0.0504292 223.4 92.16 0.0412017
0.05 224.25 162.5625 0.0537975 223.6 179.56 0.0565401
0.01 228.00 49 0.0297872 226.8 67.24 0.0348936
0.05 232.75 232.5625 0.0614919 229.4 345.96 0.075
0.08 238.25 473.0625 0.0836538 235.8 585.64 0.0930769
0.05 245.00 225 0.0576923 242.6 302.76 0.0669231
0.03 250.75 7.5625 0.0110887 248 0 0
0.00 254.00 9 0.0116732 250.2 46.24 0.0264591
0.08 256.25 410.0625 0.0858051 254.6 345.96 0.0788136
0.00 250.25 10.5625 0.0131579 252.2 27.04 0.0210526
0.00 247.00 1 0.004065 249.6 12.96 0.0146341
0.04 246.50 42.25 0.0256917 246.8 38.44 0.0245059
0.02 245.50 90.25 0.0372549 247.8 51.84 0.0282353
0.03 250.25 60.0625 0.0300388 247.4 112.36 0.0410853
0.00 253.00 9 0.0117188 251.8 17.64 0.0164063
0.01 255.50 20.25 0.0173077 253.6 40.96 0.0246154
0.00 257.25 3.0625 0.0067568 256.4 6.76 0.0100386
0.05 258.25 189.0625 0.0505515 257.6 207.36 0.0529412
0.03 261.75 105.0625 0.0376838 261 121 0.0404412
0.02 265.75 68.0625 0.0301095 263.8 104.04 0.0372263
0.07 269.25 203.0625 0.0558824 267.4 153.76 0.0486275
0.05 268.25 175.5625 0.0519608 266.4 129.96 0.0447059
0.05 264.00 196 0.056 265.6 243.36 0.0624
0.08 258.50 240.25 0.0565693 261.2 163.84 0.0467153
0.06 258.50 342.25 0.066787 261.6 237.16 0.0555957
0.03 264.00 100 0.0364964 262.2 139.24 0.0430657
0.01 268.75 18.0625 0.0155678 266 49 0.025641
0.04 274.50 132.25 0.0402098 269.6 268.96 0.0573427
0.07 277.50 506.25 0.075 276.8 538.24 0.0773333
0.06 283.25 473.0625 0.0713115 282 529 0.0754098
0.02 291.00 121 0.0364238 287.6 207.36 0.0476821
0.04 298.25 39.0625 0.0214041 293.2 1.44 0.0041096
0.11 299.75 885.0625 0.1101852 297 729 0.1
0.06 292.25 451.5625 0.0784133 293.8 519.84 0.0841328
0.04 283.75 248.0625 0.0587687 288 400 0.0746269
275.25 280.6
 Exponencial 3 4 5
RMSE 7.283744845 9.4022751 10.195071 10.775362
MAPE 3.46% 4.6% 5.1% 5.5%

Debido a que el MAPE es menor al utilizar suavización exponencial, se

puede afirmar que
es el mejor modelo y se obtiene una mejor previsión al haber menos
error

Una distribuidora de energia desea prever su demanda en

la punta mensual de energía, porque está implementando
un proyecto de instalación de equipos de seguridad por
sobre carga. Esta previsión es importante porque la
cantidad de estos equipos, el nivel de protección y el valor
a invertir depende de la cantidad de energia que pueden
soportar.
Utilizar modelo de ajuste exponencial y modelo de medias
móviles de 3, 4 y 5 periodos para realizar la previsión.
Indicar con qué modelo se obtiene una mejor previsión.
 prever su demanda en
ue está implementando
pos de seguridad por
rtante porque la
de protección y el valor
e energia que pueden

ial y modelo de medias

ealizar la previsión.
una mejor previsión.
date T3 Y (ajuste exponencial) Error % 7
2016-01-11 17:00:00 19.790 1
2016-01-11 17:10:00 19.790 2 19.79 0 0
2016-01-11 17:20:00 19.790 3 19.79 0 0
2016-01-11 17:30:00 19.790 4 19.79 0 0
2016-01-11 17:40:00 19.790 5 19.79 0 0
2016-01-11 17:50:00 19.790 6 19.79 0 0
2016-01-11 18:00:00 19.790 7 19.79 0 0
2016-01-11 18:10:00 19.730 8 19.79 0.0036 0.0030411 19.79
2016-01-11 18:20:00 19.730 9 19.73 0.000000213 2.339E-05 19.78
2016-01-11 18:30:00 19.790 10 19.73 0.003599574 0.0030317 19.77
2016-01-11 18:40:00 19.790 11 19.79 0.000000213 2.332E-05 19.77
2016-01-11 18:50:00 19.790 12 19.79 1.26031091E-11 1.794E-07 19.77
2016-01-11 19:00:00 19.890 13 19.79 0.0100000055 0.0050277 19.77
2016-01-11 19:10:00 19.890 14 19.89 5.917163E-07 3.867E-05 19.79
2016-01-11 19:20:00 20.033 15 19.89 0.0205461407 0.007155 19.80
2016-01-11 19:30:00 20.100 16 20.03 0.0045926748 0.0033716 19.84
2016-01-11 19:40:00 20.200 17 20.10 0.0101045322 0.0049763 19.90
2016-01-11 19:50:00 20.200 18 20.20 5.97901312E-07 3.828E-05 19.96
2016-01-11 20:00:00 20.200 19 20.20 3.53787759E-11 2.945E-07 20.01
2016-01-11 20:10:00 20.167 20 20.20 0.0011111081 0.0016529 20.07
2016-01-11 20:20:00 20.167 21 20.17 6.57460391E-08 1.271E-05 20.11
2016-01-11 20:30:00 20.200 22 20.17 0.0011109796 0.0016501 20.15
2016-01-11 20:40:00 20.260 23 20.20 0.0036308331 0.0029742 20.18
2016-01-11 20:50:00 20.290 24 20.26 0.0009280255 0.0015014 20.20
2016-01-11 21:00:00 20.290 25 20.29 5.49127507E-08 1.155E-05 20.21
2016-01-11 21:10:00 20.390 26 20.29 0.0100003605 0.0049045 20.22
2016-01-11 21:20:00 20.390 27 20.39 5.91737309E-07 3.773E-05 20.25
2016-01-11 21:30:00 20.390 28 20.39 3.50140419E-11 2.902E-07 20.28
2016-01-11 21:40:00 20.390 29 20.39 2.0718369E-15 2.232E-09 20.32
2016-01-11 21:50:00 20.390 30 20.39 1.22593919E-19 1.717E-11 20.34
2016-01-11 22:00:00 20.390 31 20.39 7.25201723E-24 1.321E-13 20.36
2016-01-11 22:10:00 20.427 32 20.39 0.0013444444 0.001795 20.38
2016-01-11 22:20:00 20.500 33 20.43 0.0054192249 0.003591 20.40
2016-01-11 22:30:00 20.500 34 20.50 3.20664192E-07 2.762E-05 20.41
2016-01-11 22:40:00 20.500 35 20.50 1.89742126E-11 2.125E-07 20.43
2016-01-11 22:50:00 20.500 36 20.50 1.12273451E-15 1.634E-09 20.44
2016-01-11 23:00:00 20.418 37 20.50 0.00680625 0.0040407 20.46
2016-01-11 23:10:00 20.390 38 20.42 0.0007915566 0.0013798 20.46
2016-01-11 23:20:00 20.290 39 20.39 0.0100433309 0.0049392 20.46
2016-01-11 23:30:00 20.290 40 20.29 5.94279933E-07 3.799E-05 20.44
2016-01-11 23:40:00 20.290 41 20.29 3.5164493E-11 2.923E-07 20.41
2016-01-11 23:50:00 20.230 42 20.29 0.0036000055 0.0029659 20.38
2016-01-12 00:00:00 20.200 43 20.23 0.0009279053 0.001508 20.34
2016-01-12 00:10:00 20.200 44 20.20 5.49056418E-08 0.0000116 20.30
2016-01-12 00:20:00 20.167 45 20.20 0.0011112313 0.001653 20.27
2016-01-12 00:30:00 20.100 46 20.17 0.0044787001 0.0033295 20.24
2016-01-12 00:40:00 20.100 47 20.10 0.000000265 2.561E-05 20.21
2016-01-12 00:50:00 20.100 48 20.10 1.56811739E-11 1.97E-07 20.18
2016-01-12 01:00:00 20.100 49 20.10 9.27880255E-16 1.515E-09 20.16
2016-01-12 01:10:00 20.100 50 20.10 5.49055019E-20 1.166E-11 20.14
2016-01-12 01:20:00 20.100 51 20.10 3.25722561E-24 8.979E-14 20.12
2016-01-12 01:30:00 20.167 52 20.10 0.0044444444 0.0033058 20.11
2016-01-12 01:40:00 20.133 53 20.17 0.0010771861 0.0016302 20.11
2016-01-12 01:50:00 20.200 54 20.13 0.0044108461 0.0032878 20.11
2016-01-12 02:00:00 20.167 55 20.20 0.0010773135 0.0016276 20.13
2016-01-12 02:10:00 20.125 56 20.17 0.0017572149 0.0020829 20.14
2016-01-12 02:20:00 20.133 57 20.13 6.4174172E-05 0.0003979 20.14
2016-01-12 02:30:00 20.200 58 20.13 0.0044526645 0.0033034 20.15
2016-01-12 02:40:00 20.200 59 20.20 2.63471274E-07 2.541E-05 20.16
2016-01-12 02:50:00 20.200 60 20.20 1.55900162E-11 1.955E-07 20.17
2016-01-12 03:00:00 20.200 61 20.20 9.22486225E-16 1.504E-09 20.18
2016-01-12 03:10:00 20.290 62 20.20 0.0081 0.0044357 20.18
2016-01-12 03:20:00 20.290 63 20.29 4.79289943E-07 3.412E-05 20.19
2016-01-12 03:30:00 20.200 64 20.29 0.0080990414 0.0044552 20.22
2016-01-12 03:40:00 20.200 65 20.20 4.79233222E-07 3.427E-05 20.23
2016-01-12 03:50:00 20.200 66 20.20 2.83569954E-11 2.636E-07 20.23
2016-01-12 04:00:00 20.260 67 20.20 0.0035999951 0.0029615 20.23
2016-01-12 04:10:00 20.290 68 20.26 0.0009279053 0.0015013 20.23
2016-01-12 04:20:00 20.290 69 20.29 5.49056394E-08 1.155E-05 20.25
2016-01-12 04:30:00 20.290 70 20.29 3.24885441E-12 8.883E-08 20.25
2016-01-12 04:40:00 20.290 71 20.29 1.92239944E-16 6.833E-10 20.25
2016-01-12 04:50:00 20.290 72 20.29 1.1375506E-20 5.257E-12 20.26
2016-01-12 05:00:00 20.290 73 20.29 6.73510508E-25 4.045E-14 20.27
2016-01-12 05:10:00 20.290 74 20.29 0 0 20.29
2016-01-12 05:20:00 20.290 75 20.29 0 0 20.29
2016-01-12 05:30:00 20.357 76 20.29 0.0044444444 0.0032749 20.29
2016-01-12 05:40:00 20.390 77 20.36 0.0011455621 0.0016599 20.30
2016-01-12 05:50:00 20.323 78 20.39 0.0044097982 0.0032675 20.31
2016-01-12 06:00:00 20.323 79 20.32 2.60934806E-07 2.513E-05 20.32
2016-01-12 06:10:00 20.323 80 20.32 1.54399294E-11 1.933E-07 20.32
2016-01-12 06:20:00 20.290 81 20.32 0.0011111131 0.0016428 20.33
2016-01-12 06:30:00 20.290 82 20.29 6.57463388E-08 1.264E-05 20.33
2016-01-12 06:40:00 20.290 83 20.29 3.8903159E-12 9.721E-08 20.33
2016-01-12 06:50:00 20.290 84 20.29 2.30196123E-16 7.478E-10 20.32
2016-01-12 07:00:00 20.200 85 20.29 0.0081 0.0044554 20.30
2016-01-12 07:10:00 20.200 86 20.20 4.79289942E-07 3.427E-05 20.29
2016-01-12 07:20:00 20.167 87 20.20 0.0011114662 0.0016532 20.27
2016-01-12 07:30:00 20.100 88 20.17 0.0044787037 0.0033295 20.25
2016-01-12 07:40:00 20.100 89 20.10 0.000000265 2.561E-05 20.22
2016-01-12 07:50:00 20.100 90 20.10 1.56811866E-11 1.97E-07 20.19
2016-01-12 08:00:00 20.200 91 20.10 0.0099999939 0.0049505 20.17
2016-01-12 08:10:00 20.133 92 20.20 0.0043424721 0.0032731 20.15
2016-01-12 08:20:00 20.150 93 20.13 0.000261138 0.000802 20.14
2016-01-12 08:30:00 20.100 94 20.15 0.0024875849 0.0024814 20.14
2016-01-12 08:40:00 20.100 95 20.10 1.47194371E-07 1.909E-05 20.13
2016-01-12 08:50:00 20.100 96 20.10 8.70972608E-12 1.468E-07 20.13
2016-01-12 09:00:00 20.100 97 20.10 5.15368396E-16 1.129E-09 20.13
2016-01-12 09:10:00 20.100 98 20.10 3.04956677E-20 8.688E-12 20.13
2016-01-12 09:20:00 20.100 99 20.10 1.80344963E-24 6.681E-14 20.11
2016-01-12 09:30:00 20.100 100 20.10 0 0 20.11
2016-01-12 09:40:00 20.033 101 20.10 0.0044444444 0.0033278 20.10
2016-01-12 09:50:00 20.000 102 20.03 0.0011455621 0.0016923 20.09
2016-01-12 10:00:00 20.000 103 20.00 6.77847414E-08 1.302E-05 20.08
2016-01-12 10:10:00 19.890 104 20.00 0.0121004406 0.0055305 20.06
2016-01-12 10:20:00 19.890 105 19.89 0.000000716 4.254E-05 20.03
2016-01-12 10:30:00 19.890 106 19.89 4.23670061E-11 3.272E-07 20.00
2016-01-12 10:40:00 19.963 107 19.89 0.0053777704 0.0036734 19.97
2016-01-12 10:50:00 19.927 108 19.96 0.0013033952 0.0018118 19.95
2016-01-12 11:00:00 20.000 109 19.93 0.0053371238 0.0036528 19.94
2016-01-12 11:10:00 20.000 110 20.00 3.15806142E-07 2.81E-05 19.94
2016-01-12 11:20:00 19.927 111 20.00 0.0053771438 0.0036799 19.94
2016-01-12 11:30:00 19.945 112 19.93 0.0003157467 0.0008909 19.94
2016-01-12 11:40:00 19.890 113 19.94 0.0030099832 0.0027583 19.95
2016-01-12 11:50:00 19.890 114 19.89 1.78105512E-07 2.122E-05 19.95
2016-01-12 12:00:00 19.963 115 19.89 0.0053773017 0.0036732 19.94
2016-01-12 12:10:00 19.963 116 19.96 3.1818353E-07 2.826E-05 19.95
2016-01-12 12:20:00 20.000 117 19.96 0.0013447627 0.0018336 19.94
2016-01-12 12:30:00 20.000 118 20.00 7.95717551E-08 1.41E-05 19.94
2016-01-12 12:40:00 19.963 119 20.00 0.0013442853 0.0018366 19.95
2016-01-12 12:50:00 19.890 120 19.96 0.0054192224 0.0037011 19.95
2016-01-12 13:00:00 19.890 121 19.89 3.20664047E-07 2.847E-05 19.95
2016-01-12 13:10:00 19.890 122 19.89 1.8974204E-11 2.19E-07 19.95
2016-01-12 13:20:00 19.890 123 19.89 1.12273404E-15 1.685E-09 19.94
2016-01-12 13:30:00 19.890 124 19.89 6.64347415E-20 1.296E-11 19.93
2016-01-12 13:40:00 19.890 125 19.89 3.92996619E-24 9.967E-14 19.92
2016-01-12 13:50:00 19.890 126 19.89 0 0 19.90
2016-01-12 14:00:00 19.890 127 19.89 0 0 19.89
2016-01-12 14:10:00 19.890 128 19.89 0 0 19.89
2016-01-12 14:20:00 19.890 129 19.89 0 0 19.89
2016-01-12 14:30:00 19.890 130 19.89 0 0 19.89
2016-01-12 14:40:00 19.945 131 19.89 0.003025 0.0027576 19.89
2016-01-12 14:50:00 19.890 132 19.94 0.0029786405 0.0027439 19.90
2016-01-12 15:00:00 19.890 133 19.89 1.76250919E-07 2.111E-05 19.90
2016-01-12 15:10:00 19.890 134 19.89 1.04290485E-11 1.624E-07 19.90
2016-01-12 15:20:00 19.890 135 19.89 6.17103541E-16 1.249E-09 19.90
2016-01-12 15:30:00 19.890 136 19.89 3.65153157E-20 9.607E-12 19.90
2016-01-12 15:40:00 19.890 137 19.89 2.16332166E-24 7.395E-14 19.90
2016-01-12 15:50:00 19.890 138 19.89 0 0 19.90
2016-01-12 16:00:00 19.890 139 19.89 0 0 19.89
2016-01-12 16:10:00 19.890 140 19.89 0 0 19.89
2016-01-12 16:20:00 19.890 141 19.89 0 0 19.89
2016-01-12 16:30:00 19.890 142 19.89 0 0 19.89
2016-01-12 16:40:00 19.823 143 19.89 0.0044444444 0.003363 19.89
2016-01-12 16:50:00 19.790 144 19.82 0.0011455621 0.0017103 19.88
2016-01-12 17:00:00 19.790 145 19.79 6.77847414E-08 1.316E-05 19.87
2016-01-12 17:10:00 19.790 146 19.79 4.01093145E-12 1.012E-07 19.85
2016-01-12 17:20:00 19.790 147 19.79 2.37333179E-16 7.785E-10 19.84
2016-01-12 17:30:00 19.823 148 19.79 0.0011111111 0.0016815 19.82
2016-01-12 17:40:00 19.890 149 19.82 0.0044786982 0.0033647 19.81
2016-01-12 17:50:00 19.890 150 19.89 0.000000265 2.588E-05 19.81
2016-01-12 18:00:00 19.790 151 19.89 0.009999208 0.0050529 19.82
2016-01-12 18:10:00 19.790 152 19.79 5.91669114E-07 3.887E-05 19.82
2016-01-12 18:20:00 19.790 153 19.79 3.50100067E-11 2.99E-07 19.82
2016-01-12 18:30:00 19.790 154 19.79 2.0715979E-15 2.3E-09 19.82
2016-01-12 18:40:00 19.890 155 19.79 0.0099999999 0.0050277 19.82
2016-01-12 18:50:00 19.890 156 19.89 5.91715972E-07 3.867E-05 19.83
2016-01-12 19:00:00 19.790 157 19.89 0.0099988166 0.0050528 19.83
2016-01-12 19:10:00 19.790 158 19.79 5.91645953E-07 3.887E-05 19.82
2016-01-12 19:20:00 19.790 159 19.79 3.50086362E-11 2.99E-07 19.82
2016-01-12 19:30:00 19.790 160 19.79 2.07151705E-15 2.3E-09 19.82
2016-01-12 19:40:00 19.790 161 19.79 1.22574017E-19 1.769E-11 19.82
2016-01-12 19:50:00 19.790 162 19.79 7.25201723E-24 1.361E-13 19.82
2016-01-12 20:00:00 19.790 163 19.79 0 0 19.80
2016-01-12 20:10:00 19.790 164 19.79 0 0 19.79
2016-01-12 20:20:00 19.790 165 19.79 0 0 19.79
2016-01-12 20:30:00 19.790 166 19.79 0 0 19.79
2016-01-12 20:40:00 19.790 167 19.79 0 0 19.79
2016-01-12 20:50:00 19.790 168 19.79 0 0 19.79
2016-01-12 21:00:00 19.790 169 19.79 0 0 19.79
2016-01-12 21:10:00 19.790 170 19.79 0 0 19.79
2016-01-12 21:20:00 19.790 171 19.79 0 0 19.79
2016-01-12 21:30:00 19.790 172 19.79 0 0 19.79
2016-01-12 21:40:00 19.730 173 19.79 0.0036 0.0030411 19.79
2016-01-12 21:50:00 19.700 174 19.73 0.0009279053 0.0015463 19.78
2016-01-12 22:00:00 19.700 175 19.70 5.49056406E-08 1.189E-05 19.77
2016-01-12 22:10:00 19.700 176 19.70 3.24885448E-12 9.15E-08 19.76
2016-01-12 22:20:00 19.700 177 19.70 1.92239944E-16 7.038E-10 19.74
2016-01-12 22:30:00 19.730 178 19.70 0.0009 0.0015205 19.73
2016-01-12 22:40:00 19.790 179 19.73 0.0036277456 0.0030435 19.72
2016-01-12 22:50:00 19.790 180 19.79 2.14659501E-07 2.341E-05 19.72
2016-01-12 23:00:00 19.790 181 19.79 1.27017456E-11 1.801E-07 19.73
2016-01-12 23:10:00 19.790 182 19.79 7.5158252E-16 1.385E-09 19.74
2016-01-12 23:20:00 19.790 183 19.79 4.44727073E-20 1.066E-11 19.76
2016-01-12 23:30:00 19.790 184 19.79 2.63604498E-24 8.204E-14 19.77
2016-01-12 23:40:00 19.790 185 19.79 0 0 19.78
2016-01-12 23:50:00 19.890 186 19.79 0.01 0.0050277 19.79
2016-01-13 00:00:00 19.890 187 19.89 5.91715976E-07 3.867E-05 19.80
2016-01-13 00:10:00 19.890 188 19.89 3.50127796E-11 2.975E-07 19.82
2016-01-13 00:20:00 19.890 189 19.89 2.07176219E-15 2.288E-09 19.83
2016-01-13 00:30:00 19.890 190 19.89 1.22588943E-19 1.76E-11 19.85
2016-01-13 00:40:00 19.890 191 19.89 7.25201723E-24 1.354E-13 19.86
2016-01-13 00:50:00 19.823 192 19.89 0.0044444444 0.003363 19.88
2016-01-13 01:00:00 19.790 193 19.82 0.0011455621 0.0017103 19.88
2016-01-13 01:10:00 19.790 194 19.79 6.77847414E-08 1.316E-05 19.87
2016-01-13 01:20:00 19.790 195 19.79 4.01093145E-12 1.012E-07 19.85
2016-01-13 01:30:00 19.857 196 19.79 0.0044444424 0.0033574 19.84
2016-01-13 01:40:00 19.890 197 19.86 0.0011455621 0.0017017 19.83
2016-01-13 01:50:00 19.890 198 19.89 6.7784741E-08 1.309E-05 19.83
2016-01-13 02:00:00 19.890 199 19.89 4.01093141E-12 1.007E-07 19.83
2016-01-13 02:10:00 19.890 200 19.89 2.37333179E-16 7.745E-10 19.84
2016-01-13 02:20:00 19.890 201 19.89 1.40432733E-20 5.958E-12 19.86
2016-01-13 02:30:00 19.890 202 19.89 8.27180613E-25 4.573E-14 19.87
2016-01-13 02:40:00 19.890 203 19.89 0 0 19.89
2016-01-13 02:50:00 19.963 204 19.89 0.0053777778 0.0036734 19.89
2016-01-13 03:00:00 19.890 205 19.96 0.0052953609 0.0036586 19.90
2016-01-13 03:10:00 19.890 206 19.89 3.13334967E-07 2.814E-05 19.90
2016-01-13 03:20:00 19.890 207 19.89 1.85405306E-11 2.165E-07 19.90
2016-01-13 03:30:00 19.890 208 19.89 1.09707296E-15 1.665E-09 19.90
2016-01-13 03:40:00 19.823 209 19.89 0.0044444445 0.003363 19.90
2016-01-13 03:50:00 19.790 210 19.82 0.0011455621 0.0017103 19.89
2016-01-13 04:00:00 19.790 211 19.79 6.77847414E-08 1.316E-05 19.88
2016-01-13 04:10:00 19.823 212 19.79 0.0011109776 0.0016814 19.85
2016-01-13 04:20:00 19.823 213 19.82 6.57383195E-08 1.293E-05 19.84
2016-01-13 04:30:00 19.890 214 19.82 0.0044447074 0.0033519 19.83
2016-01-13 04:40:00 19.890 215 19.89 0.000000263 2.578E-05 19.83
2016-01-13 04:50:00 19.890 216 19.89 1.55621561E-11 1.983E-07 19.83
2016-01-13 05:00:00 19.890 217 19.89 9.20837532E-16 1.526E-09 19.84
2016-01-13 05:10:00 19.890 218 19.89 5.4486739E-20 1.174E-11 19.86
2016-01-13 05:20:00 19.890 219 19.89 3.21886804E-24 9.02E-14 19.87
2016-01-13 05:30:00 19.963 220 19.89 0.0053777778 0.0036734 19.88
2016-01-13 05:40:00 19.890 221 19.96 0.0052953609 0.0036586 19.90
2016-01-13 05:50:00 19.927 222 19.89 0.0013037085 0.001812 19.90
2016-01-13 06:00:00 19.927 223 19.93 7.7142513E-08 1.394E-05 19.91
2016-01-13 06:10:00 19.890 224 19.93 0.0013442878 0.0018434 19.91
2016-01-13 06:20:00 19.815 225 19.89 0.0056673848 0.0037992 19.91
2016-01-13 06:30:00 19.730 226 19.82 0.0073237811 0.0043375 19.90
2016-01-13 06:40:00 19.700 227 19.73 0.0009399314 0.0015563 19.88
2016-01-13 06:50:00 19.700 228 19.70 5.56172428E-08 1.197E-05 19.84
2016-01-13 07:00:00 19.600 229 19.70 0.0100003628 0.0051021 19.81
2016-01-13 07:10:00 19.533 230 19.60 0.0045476021 0.0034524 19.77
2016-01-13 07:20:00 19.500 231 19.53 0.0011459627 0.001736 19.71
2016-01-13 07:30:00 19.500 232 19.50 6.78084449E-08 1.335E-05 19.65
2016-01-13 07:40:00 19.500 233 19.50 4.01233402E-12 1.027E-07 19.61
2016-01-13 07:50:00 19.500 234 19.50 2.37416269E-16 7.902E-10 19.58
2016-01-13 08:00:00 19.500 235 19.50 1.40483259E-20 6.078E-12 19.55
2016-01-13 08:10:00 19.500 236 19.50 8.33655583E-25 4.682E-14 19.52
2016-01-13 08:20:00 19.500 237 19.50 0 0 19.50
2016-01-13 08:30:00 19.427 238 19.50 0.0053777778 0.0037749 19.50
2016-01-13 08:40:00 19.390 239 19.43 0.0013861302 0.0019201 19.49
2016-01-13 08:50:00 19.390 240 19.39 0.000000082 1.477E-05 19.47
2016-01-13 09:00:00 19.390 241 19.39 4.85322705E-12 1.136E-07 19.46
2016-01-13 09:10:00 19.463 242 19.39 0.0053777753 0.0037678 19.44
2016-01-13 09:20:00 19.500 243 19.46 0.0013861302 0.0019093 19.44
2016-01-13 09:30:00 19.500 244 19.50 0.000000082 1.469E-05 19.44
2016-01-13 09:40:00 19.427 245 19.50 0.0053774547 0.0037748 19.44
2016-01-13 09:50:00 19.463 246 19.43 0.0013033964 0.0018549 19.44
2016-01-13 10:00:00 19.390 247 19.46 0.0053371238 0.0037677 19.45
2016-01-13 10:10:00 19.390 248 19.39 3.15806141E-07 2.898E-05 19.45
2016-01-13 10:20:00 19.463 249 19.39 0.0053771438 0.0037675 19.45
2016-01-13 10:30:00 19.500 250 19.46 0.0013861277 0.0019093 19.45
2016-01-13 10:40:00 19.500 251 19.50 0.000000082 1.469E-05 19.45
2016-01-13 10:50:00 19.500 252 19.50 4.85321838E-12 1.13E-07 19.45
2016-01-13 11:00:00 19.500 253 19.50 2.87172701E-16 8.69E-10 19.46
2016-01-13 11:10:00 19.390 254 19.50 0.0121 0.005673 19.46
2016-01-13 11:20:00 19.390 255 19.39 0.000000716 4.364E-05 19.46
2016-01-13 11:30:00 19.323 256 19.39 0.0044453123 0.0034504 19.46
2016-01-13 11:40:00 19.390 257 19.32 0.0043763247 0.0034117 19.44
2016-01-13 11:50:00 19.390 258 19.39 0.000000259 2.624E-05 19.43
2016-01-13 12:00:00 19.390 259 19.39 1.53227294E-11 2.019E-07 19.41
19.39 19.40
Error % 10 Error % 12 Error %

0.00360 0.0030411
0.00264 0.0026066
0.00029 0.0008662
0.00029 0.0008662 19.78 0.00014 0.0006064
0.00029 0.0008662 19.78 0.00014 0.0006064
0.01372 0.0058895 19.78 0.01254 0.0056310 19.780 0.012 0.0055304
0.01058 0.0051713 19.79 0.01040 0.0051282 19.788 0.010 0.0051114
0.05378 0.0115759 19.80 0.05538 0.0117471 19.797 0.056 0.0118136
0.06515 0.0126984 19.82 0.07710 0.0138143 19.817 0.080 0.0140824
0.09143 0.0149694 19.85 0.12018 0.0171617 19.843 0.128 0.0176843
0.05944 0.0120698 19.89 0.09343 0.0151320 19.877 0.104 0.0159928
0.03431 0.0091702 19.94 0.06691 0.0128053 19.911 0.083 0.0143014
0.00871 0.0046281 19.99 0.03180 0.0088430 19.945 0.049 0.010978
0.00290 0.0026682 20.03 0.01979 0.0069752 19.982 0.034 0.0091736
0.00227 0.0023574 20.06 0.01859 0.0067492 20.018 0.033 0.0090072
0.00702 0.0041367 20.10 0.02413 0.0076670 20.052 0.043 0.0102556
0.00827 0.0044826 20.14 0.02200 0.0073107 20.091 0.039 0.0097886
0.00610 0.0038490 20.18 0.01174 0.0053392 20.133 0.025 0.0077351
0.02730 0.0081039 20.21 0.03337 0.0089586 20.166 0.050 0.0109667
0.01907 0.0067727 20.24 0.02361 0.0075364 20.208 0.033 0.0089232
0.01128 0.0052080 20.26 0.01814 0.0066045 20.238 0.023 0.0074655
0.00552 0.0036432 20.27 0.01338 0.0056727 20.262 0.016 0.0062803
0.00222 0.0023121 20.29 0.00934 0.0047409 20.278 0.013 0.0055038
0.00082 0.0014012 20.32 0.00553 0.0036456 20.294 0.009 0.0047273
0.00260 0.0024944 20.34 0.00786 0.0043407 20.309 0.014 0.0057387
0.01098 0.0051103 20.36 0.01941 0.0067967 20.331 0.029 0.0082385
0.00793 0.0043438 20.38 0.01330 0.0056260 20.359 0.020 0.0068835
0.00538 0.0035772 20.41 0.00890 0.0046016 20.384 0.013 0.005664
0.00332 0.0028107 20.43 0.00538 0.0035772 20.404 0.009 0.0046883
0.00165 0.0019883 20.44 0.00041 0.0009877 20.421 0.000 0.0001905
0.00519 0.0035323 20.44 0.00254 0.0024726 20.432 0.002 0.0020605
0.02959 0.0084783 20.44 0.02263 0.0074133 20.432 0.020 0.0069992
0.02326 0.0075160 20.43 0.01972 0.0069205 20.424 0.018 0.0065885
0.01501 0.0060375 20.42 0.01701 0.0064276 20.415 0.016 0.0061778
0.02326 0.0075383 20.41 0.03255 0.0089183 20.407 0.031 0.0087501
0.02072 0.0071252 20.39 0.03639 0.0094431 20.394 0.038 0.0095881
0.01022 0.0050035 20.36 0.02584 0.0079579 20.378 0.032 0.0088043
0.01068 0.0051240 20.33 0.02692 0.0081364 20.359 0.037 0.0095351
0.01907 0.0068704 20.30 0.03897 0.0098217 20.331 0.053 0.0115015
0.01231 0.0055200 20.26 0.02478 0.0078317 20.298 0.039 0.0098431
0.00702 0.0041696 20.23 0.01579 0.0062521 20.265 0.027 0.0081848
0.00321 0.0028192 20.20 0.00934 0.0048093 20.231 0.017 0.0065264
0.00145 0.0018953 20.18 0.00603 0.0038640 20.205 0.011 0.0052101
0.00057 0.0011846 20.16 0.00344 0.0029187 20.181 0.006 0.0040077
0.00327 0.0028335 20.14 0.00073 0.0013388 20.165 0.000 9.642E-05
0.00057 0.0011826 20.13 0.00000 0.0000000 20.154 0.000 0.0010486
0.00735 0.0042433 20.13 0.00538 0.0036304 20.141 0.003 0.0029015
0.00145 0.0018890 20.13 0.00160 0.0019835 20.139 0.001 0.0013774
0.00017 0.0006507 20.13 0.00000 0.0000828 20.136 0.000 0.0005521
0.00007 0.0004139 20.13 0.00002 0.0002070 20.130 0.000 0.0001725
0.00287 0.0026521 20.13 0.00456 0.0033416 20.127 0.005 0.0036097
0.00154 0.0019448 20.14 0.00331 0.0028465 20.135 0.004 0.0031972
0.00119 0.0017091 20.15 0.00226 0.0023515 20.144 0.003 0.0027847
0.00062 0.0012376 20.16 0.00141 0.0018564 20.152 0.002 0.0023721
0.01322 0.0056678 20.17 0.01381 0.0057910 20.160 0.017 0.0063866
0.00948 0.0047995 20.18 0.01106 0.0051832 20.176 0.013 0.0056062
0.00026 0.0008015 20.20 0.00000 0.0000248 20.192 0.000 0.0003919
0.00066 0.0012730 20.20 0.00000 0.0000248 20.195 0.000 0.0002544
0.00066 0.0012730 20.20 0.00001 0.0001898 20.200 0.000 2.063E-05
0.00118 0.0016923 20.21 0.00237 0.0024021 20.200 0.004 0.0029409
0.00310 0.0027459 20.22 0.00436 0.0032528 20.208 0.007 0.0040318
0.00184 0.0021122 20.23 0.00325 0.0028093 20.222 0.005 0.0033541
0.00184 0.0021122 20.24 0.00230 0.0023657 20.235 0.003 0.0027107
0.00184 0.0021122 20.25 0.00152 0.0019221 20.243 0.002 0.0023411
0.00090 0.0014786 20.26 0.00090 0.0014786 20.250 0.002 0.0019714
0.00029 0.0008449 20.26 0.00090 0.0014786 20.258 0.001 0.0016018
0.00002 0.0002112 20.26 0.00090 0.0014786 20.265 0.001 0.0012321
0.00000 0.0000000 20.27 0.00044 0.0010350 20.265 0.001 0.0012321
0.00444 0.0032749 20.28 0.00619 0.0038644 20.265 0.008 0.004503
0.00819 0.0044373 20.29 0.00928 0.0047245 20.278 0.013 0.0054902
0.00009 0.0004686 20.31 0.00028 0.0008201 20.294 0.001 0.0014488
0.00002 0.0002343 20.31 0.00018 0.0006561 20.304 0.000 0.0009431
0.00000 0.0000000 20.31 0.00010 0.0004920 20.309 0.000 0.0006834
0.00145 0.0018775 20.32 0.00071 0.0013143 20.312 0.000 0.0010952
0.00145 0.0018775 20.32 0.00071 0.0013143 20.312 0.000 0.0010952
0.00145 0.0018775 20.32 0.00071 0.0013143 20.312 0.000 0.0010952
0.00082 0.0014082 20.32 0.00071 0.0013143 20.312 0.000 0.0010952
0.01088 0.0051627 20.32 0.01361 0.0057756 20.312 0.013 0.0055556
0.00751 0.0042904 20.31 0.01159 0.0053300 20.305 0.011 0.0051843
0.01048 0.0050767 20.29 0.01571 0.0062149 20.297 0.017 0.0064738
0.02151 0.0072968 20.27 0.02879 0.0084411 20.287 0.035 0.0093007
0.01429 0.0059465 20.25 0.02171 0.0073300 20.266 0.027 0.0082366
0.00853 0.0045961 20.23 0.01562 0.0062189 20.241 0.020 0.0070343
0.00121 0.0017209 20.20 0.00001 0.0001320 20.223 0.001 0.0011276
0.00036 0.0009461 20.19 0.00364 0.0029967 20.213 0.006 0.0039321
0.00005 0.0003545 20.18 0.00078 0.0013896 20.197 0.002 0.002316
0.00128 0.0017768 20.16 0.00410 0.0031841 20.185 0.007 0.0042289
0.00069 0.0013030 20.15 0.00203 0.0022388 20.169 0.005 0.0034411
0.00069 0.0013030 20.14 0.00122 0.0017413 20.153 0.003 0.0026534
0.00069 0.0013030 20.13 0.00062 0.0012438 20.138 0.001 0.0018657
0.00069 0.0013030 20.12 0.00034 0.0009121 20.129 0.001 0.0014511
0.00014 0.0005923 20.12 0.00034 0.0009121 20.121 0.000 0.0010365
0.00005 0.0003554 20.12 0.00034 0.0009121 20.115 0.000 0.0007601
0.00444 0.0033278 20.12 0.00723 0.0042429 20.115 0.007 0.0040904
0.00819 0.0045238 20.10 0.01034 0.0050833 20.110 0.012 0.0054861
0.00580 0.0038095 20.09 0.00780 0.0044167 20.101 0.010 0.0050694
0.02955 0.0086428 20.07 0.03361 0.0092174 20.085 0.038 0.00979
0.02014 0.0071345 20.05 0.02635 0.0081616 20.064 0.030 0.0087705
0.01252 0.0056262 20.03 0.01998 0.0071057 20.043 0.023 0.0076811
0.00007 0.0004294 20.01 0.00221 0.0023543 20.025 0.004 0.0031029
0.00066 0.0012904 20.00 0.00490 0.0035129 20.014 0.008 0.0043772
0.00395 0.0031429 19.98 0.00043 0.0010333 19.999 0.000 2.778E-05
0.00395 0.0031429 19.97 0.00094 0.0015333 19.991 0.000 0.0004444
0.00011 0.0005257 19.96 0.00107 0.0016393 19.983 0.003 0.0028159
0.00001 0.0001313 19.95 0.00001 0.0001838 19.968 0.001 0.0011699
0.00363 0.0030286 19.94 0.00283 0.0026730 19.955 0.004 0.0032889
0.00363 0.0030286 19.93 0.00178 0.0021200 19.943 0.003 0.0026884
0.00056 0.0011807 19.93 0.00097 0.0015612 19.934 0.001 0.0014541
0.00034 0.0009184 19.94 0.00057 0.0011939 19.931 0.001 0.0016071
0.00363 0.0030119 19.95 0.00283 0.0026583 19.937 0.004 0.0031319
0.00363 0.0030119 19.95 0.00245 0.0024750 19.947 0.003 0.0026736
0.00017 0.0006560 19.96 0.00003 0.0002755 19.956 0.000 0.0003826
0.00395 0.0031602 19.95 0.00412 0.0032261 19.956 0.004 0.0033029
0.00395 0.0031602 19.94 0.00283 0.0026730 19.953 0.004 0.0031493
0.00395 0.0031602 19.94 0.00245 0.0024887 19.943 0.003 0.0026884
0.00274 0.0026335 19.93 0.00194 0.0022122 19.934 0.002 0.0022275
0.00176 0.0021068 19.93 0.00194 0.0022122 19.931 0.002 0.0020739
0.00069 0.0013168 19.93 0.00194 0.0022122 19.927 0.001 0.0018435
0.00011 0.0005267 19.93 0.00134 0.0018435 19.927 0.001 0.0018435
0.00000 0.0000000 19.92 0.00086 0.0014748 19.927 0.001 0.0018435
0.00000 0.0000000 19.91 0.00034 0.0009217 19.921 0.001 0.0015362
0.00000 0.0000000 19.90 0.00005 0.0003687 19.914 0.001 0.001229
0.00000 0.0000000 19.89 0.00000 0.0000000 19.905 0.000 0.0007681
0.00302 0.0027576 19.89 0.00303 0.0027576 19.896 0.002 0.0024512
0.00006 0.0003950 19.90 0.00003 0.0002765 19.895 0.000 0.0002304
0.00006 0.0003950 19.90 0.00003 0.0002765 19.895 0.000 0.0002304
0.00006 0.0003950 19.90 0.00003 0.0002765 19.895 0.000 0.0002304
0.00006 0.0003950 19.90 0.00003 0.0002765 19.895 0.000 0.0002304
0.00006 0.0003950 19.90 0.00003 0.0002765 19.895 0.000 0.0002304
0.00006 0.0003950 19.90 0.00003 0.0002765 19.895 0.000 0.0002304
0.00006 0.0003950 19.90 0.00003 0.0002765 19.895 0.000 0.0002304
0.00000 0.0000000 19.90 0.00003 0.0002765 19.895 0.000 0.0002304
0.00000 0.0000000 19.90 0.00003 0.0002765 19.895 0.000 0.0002304
0.00000 0.0000000 19.90 0.00003 0.0002765 19.895 0.000 0.0002304
0.00000 0.0000000 19.89 0.00000 0.0000000 19.895 0.000 0.0002304
0.00444 0.0033630 19.89 0.00444 0.0033630 19.895 0.005 0.0035942
0.00819 0.0045718 19.88 0.00871 0.0047162 19.884 0.009 0.0047723
0.00580 0.0038499 19.87 0.00694 0.0042109 19.876 0.007 0.0043512
0.00383 0.0031281 19.86 0.00538 0.0037056 19.868 0.006 0.0039302
0.00227 0.0024062 19.85 0.00401 0.0032003 19.859 0.005 0.0035091
0.00000 0.0000000 19.84 0.00040 0.0010089 19.851 0.001 0.0014013
0.00580 0.0038306 19.84 0.00284 0.0026814 19.846 0.002 0.0022345
0.00580 0.0038306 19.84 0.00284 0.0026814 19.846 0.002 0.0022345
0.00111 0.0016844 19.84 0.00218 0.0023581 19.846 0.003 0.0028073
0.00111 0.0016844 19.83 0.00134 0.0018528 19.837 0.002 0.0023862
0.00111 0.0016844 19.82 0.00071 0.0013475 19.829 0.002 0.0019651
0.00111 0.0016844 19.81 0.00054 0.0011790 19.821 0.001 0.001544
0.00444 0.0033518 19.81 0.00588 0.0038545 19.812 0.006 0.0039104
0.00327 0.0028729 19.82 0.00444 0.0033518 19.818 0.005 0.0036311
0.00184 0.0021656 19.83 0.00188 0.0021897 19.826 0.001 0.0018247
0.00082 0.0014437 19.83 0.00188 0.0021897 19.826 0.001 0.0018247
0.00082 0.0014437 19.83 0.00160 0.0020212 19.826 0.001 0.0018247
0.00082 0.0014437 19.82 0.00090 0.0015159 19.826 0.001 0.0018247
0.00082 0.0014437 19.81 0.00040 0.0010106 19.823 0.001 0.0016844
0.00082 0.0014437 19.81 0.00040 0.0010106 19.815 0.001 0.0012633
0.00020 0.0007219 19.81 0.00040 0.0010106 19.807 0.000 0.0008422
0.00000 0.0000000 19.81 0.00040 0.0010106 19.807 0.000 0.0008422
0.00000 0.0000000 19.81 0.00040 0.0010106 19.807 0.000 0.0008422
0.00000 0.0000000 19.80 0.00010 0.0005053 19.807 0.000 0.0008422
0.00000 0.0000000 19.79 0.00000 0.0000000 19.807 0.000 0.0008422
0.00000 0.0000000 19.79 0.00000 0.0000000 19.798 0.000 0.0004211
0.00000 0.0000000 19.79 0.00000 0.0000000 19.790 0.000 0
0.00000 0.0000000 19.79 0.00000 0.0000000 19.790 0.000 0
0.00000 0.0000000 19.79 0.00000 0.0000000 19.790 0.000 0
0.00000 0.0000000 19.79 0.00000 0.0000000 19.790 0.000 0
0.00360 0.0030411 19.79 0.00360 0.0030411 19.790 0.004 0.0030411
0.00663 0.0041334 19.78 0.00706 0.0042640 19.785 0.007 0.0043147
0.00470 0.0034808 19.78 0.00562 0.0038071 19.778 0.006 0.003934
0.00310 0.0028281 19.77 0.00436 0.0033503 19.770 0.005 0.0035533
0.00184 0.0021755 19.76 0.00325 0.0028934 19.763 0.004 0.0031726
0.00000 0.0000000 19.75 0.00032 0.0009123 19.755 0.001 0.0012671
0.00470 0.0034650 19.74 0.00230 0.0024255 19.750 0.002 0.0020212
0.00470 0.0034650 19.74 0.00230 0.0024255 19.750 0.002 0.0020212
0.00360 0.0030318 19.74 0.00230 0.0024255 19.750 0.002 0.0020212
0.00222 0.0023822 19.74 0.00230 0.0024255 19.750 0.002 0.0020212
0.00118 0.0017325 19.74 0.00230 0.0024255 19.750 0.002 0.0020212
0.00046 0.0010828 19.75 0.00176 0.0021223 19.750 0.002 0.0020212
0.00007 0.0004331 19.76 0.00109 0.0016675 19.750 0.002 0.0020212
0.01000 0.0050277 19.77 0.01538 0.0062343 19.755 0.018 0.0067873
0.00735 0.0043094 19.79 0.01103 0.0052790 19.771 0.014 0.0059913
0.00510 0.0035912 19.80 0.00740 0.0043238 19.787 0.011 0.0051952
0.00327 0.0028729 19.82 0.00490 0.0035194 19.803 0.008 0.0043992
0.00184 0.0021547 19.83 0.00360 0.0030166 19.818 0.005 0.0036032
0.00082 0.0014365 19.84 0.00250 0.0025138 19.832 0.003 0.0029328
0.00274 0.0026424 19.85 0.00071 0.0013452 19.840 0.000 0.0008408
0.00819 0.0045718 19.85 0.00401 0.0032003 19.843 0.003 0.0026669
0.00580 0.0038499 19.85 0.00401 0.0032003 19.843 0.003 0.0026669
0.00383 0.0031281 19.85 0.00401 0.0032003 19.843 0.003 0.0026669
0.00036 0.0009593 19.85 0.00001 0.0001679 19.843 0.000 0.0006995
0.00327 0.0028729 19.85 0.00160 0.0020111 19.848 0.002 0.0020949
0.00327 0.0028729 19.85 0.00160 0.0020111 19.857 0.001 0.0016759
0.00327 0.0028729 19.85 0.00160 0.0020111 19.857 0.001 0.0016759
0.00227 0.0023941 19.85 0.00160 0.0020111 19.857 0.001 0.0016759
0.00111 0.0016759 19.85 0.00160 0.0020111 19.857 0.001 0.0016759
0.00036 0.0009576 19.85 0.00160 0.0020111 19.857 0.001 0.0016759
0.00002 0.0002394 19.86 0.00111 0.0016759 19.857 0.001 0.0016759
0.00538 0.0036734 19.87 0.00934 0.0048422 19.857 0.011 0.0053431
0.00011 0.0005267 19.88 0.00004 0.0003017 19.868 0.000 0.0010893
0.00011 0.0005267 19.89 0.00002 0.0002011 19.877 0.000 0.0006704
0.00011 0.0005267 19.90 0.00005 0.0003687 19.885 0.000 0.0002514
0.00011 0.0005267 19.90 0.00005 0.0003687 19.893 0.000 0.0001676
0.00595 0.0038915 19.90 0.00548 0.0037330 19.896 0.005 0.0036713
0.01019 0.0051012 19.89 0.01013 0.0050867 19.891 0.010 0.0050811
0.00751 0.0043793 19.88 0.00822 0.0045814 19.882 0.009 0.00466
0.00082 0.0014413 19.87 0.00224 0.0023878 19.874 0.003 0.0025503
0.00036 0.0009609 19.86 0.00165 0.0020515 19.868 0.002 0.0022701
0.00327 0.0028729 19.86 0.00107 0.0016424 19.863 0.001 0.0013686
0.00327 0.0028729 19.85 0.00160 0.0020111 19.863 0.001 0.0013686
0.00327 0.0028729 19.85 0.00160 0.0020111 19.863 0.001 0.0013686
0.00227 0.0023941 19.85 0.00160 0.0020111 19.857 0.001 0.0016759
0.00111 0.0016759 19.85 0.00160 0.0020111 19.857 0.001 0.0016759
0.00036 0.0009576 19.85 0.00160 0.0020111 19.857 0.001 0.0016759
0.00687 0.0041505 19.86 0.01138 0.0053431 19.857 0.011 0.0053431
0.00011 0.0005267 19.87 0.00026 0.0008044 19.863 0.001 0.0013686
0.00069 0.0013143 19.88 0.00182 0.0021412 19.868 0.003 0.0029274
0.00044 0.0010515 19.89 0.00105 0.0016226 19.880 0.002 0.0023559
0.00044 0.0010534 19.90 0.00022 0.0007374 19.891 0.000 5.586E-05
0.00921 0.0048424 19.90 0.00804 0.0045252 19.897 0.007 0.0041215
0.02898 0.0086284 19.90 0.02794 0.0084727 19.896 0.028 0.0084122
0.03146 0.0090041 19.88 0.03282 0.0091963 19.883 0.033 0.009271
0.01953 0.0070945 19.86 0.02630 0.0082318 19.867 0.028 0.0084673
0.04521 0.0108479 19.84 0.05913 0.0124065 19.851 0.063 0.0128047
0.05411 0.0119088 19.81 0.07887 0.0143771 19.827 0.086 0.0150242
0.04400 0.0107570 19.77 0.07353 0.0139060 19.797 0.088 0.015235
0.02373 0.0078999 19.73 0.05390 0.0119060 19.765 0.070 0.0135684
0.01189 0.0055922 19.69 0.03591 0.0097179 19.726 0.051 0.0115883
0.00580 0.0039072 19.65 0.02156 0.0075299 19.693 0.037 0.0099217
0.00227 0.0024420 19.61 0.01163 0.0055299 19.658 0.025 0.0080983
0.00036 0.0009768 19.58 0.00583 0.0039145 19.622 0.015 0.0062749
0.00002 0.0002442 19.55 0.00284 0.0027350 19.590 0.008 0.0046083
0.00538 0.0037749 19.53 0.01138 0.0054907 19.564 0.019 0.0070493
0.00990 0.0051327 19.51 0.01346 0.0059825 19.538 0.022 0.00765
0.00702 0.0043223 19.49 0.00903 0.0048994 19.513 0.015 0.0063177
0.00464 0.0035119 19.47 0.00651 0.0041602 19.487 0.009 0.0049854
0.00044 0.0010765 19.46 0.00001 0.0001884 19.469 0.000 0.0002997
0.00395 0.0032234 19.46 0.00194 0.0022564 19.463 0.001 0.0018803
0.00395 0.0032234 19.46 0.00194 0.0022564 19.463 0.001 0.0018803
0.00011 0.0005393 19.46 0.00086 0.0015100 19.463 0.001 0.0018874
0.00069 0.0013456 19.45 0.00022 0.0007536 19.457 0.000 0.000314
0.00332 0.0029716 19.45 0.00302 0.0028365 19.454 0.004 0.0033093
0.00332 0.0029716 19.43 0.00194 0.0022692 19.445 0.003 0.0028365
0.00025 0.0008074 19.43 0.00109 0.0016955 19.436 0.001 0.0014129
0.00274 0.0026862 19.44 0.00389 0.0031966 19.433 0.005 0.0034473
0.00274 0.0026862 19.45 0.00264 0.0026325 19.439 0.004 0.0031339
0.00274 0.0026862 19.46 0.00163 0.0020684 19.448 0.003 0.0026638
0.00176 0.0021490 19.46 0.00134 0.0018803 19.457 0.002 0.0021937
0.00538 0.0037820 19.46 0.00538 0.0037820 19.466 0.006 0.0039396
0.00538 0.0037820 19.45 0.00389 0.0032147 19.460 0.005 0.0036244
0.01960 0.0072451 19.45 0.01571 0.0064861 19.451 0.016 0.0066126
0.00284 0.0027506 19.43 0.00200 0.0023036 19.436 0.002 0.0023924
0.00142 0.0019401 19.43 0.00200 0.0023036 19.433 0.002 0.0022348
0.00048 0.0011297 19.43 0.00200 0.0023036 19.427 0.001 0.0019197
19.43 19.427
0.9923077 Exponencia 7 10 12
RMSE 0.040871 0.0771204 0.0920472 0.1026157
MAPE 0.12% 0.28739% 0.3% 0.4%

Debido a que el MAPE es menor al utilizar suavización exponencial,

se puede afirmar que
es el mejor modelo y se obtiene una mejor previsión al haber
menos error

Para la serie de consumo de energia de

medición a cada 10 minutos, se realizar la
previsión de la demanda utilizando el modelo
de ajuste exponencial y el modelo de medias
móviles de 7, 10 y 12 periodos para realizar la
previsión. Indicar con qué modelo se obtiene
una mejor previsión.
 Gasto ciencia, espacio
Fecha y tecnología en USA Y (ajuste exponencial) Error % 4
Dec. 31, 1969 4.69 1
Dec. 31, 1970 4.203 2 4.69 0.237169 0.1158696
Dec. 31, 1971 3.857 3 4.22 0.1332966 0.0946586
Dec. 31, 1972 3.836 4 3.87 0.0012473 0.0092069
Dec. 31, 1973 3.849 5 3.84 0.0001349 0.0030177 4.15
Dec. 31, 1974 3.731 6 3.85 0.0138167 0.0315048 3.94
Dec. 31, 1975 3.757 7 3.74 0.0004575 0.0056935 3.82
Dec. 31, 1976 4.107 8 3.76 0.1230879 0.0854246 3.79
Dec. 31, 1977 4.441 9 4.09 0.1209359 0.0783063 3.86
Dec. 31, 1978 4.429 10 4.43 2.682E-06 0.0003697 4.01
Dec. 31, 1979 4.735 11 4.43 0.0936753 0.0646387 4.18
Dec. 31, 1980 5.445 12 4.72 0.5212876 0.1325992 4.43
Dec. 31, 1981 6.199 13 5.42 0.6120149 0.1262 4.76
Dec. 31, 1982 4.118 14 6.17 4.2038163 0.4978924 5.20
Dec. 31, 1983 3.461 15 4.20 0.5437658 0.2130612 5.12
Dec. 31, 1984 4.656 16 3.49 1.3597476 0.2504472 4.81
Dec. 31, 1985 4.102 17 4.61 0.2583397 0.1239082 4.61
Dec. 31, 1986 4.772 18 4.12 0.4225881 0.1362254 4.08
Dec. 31, 1987 4.695 19 4.75 0.002653 0.0109706 4.25
Dec. 31, 1988 5.383 20 4.70 0.4705687 0.1274345 4.56
Dec. 31, 1989 6.47 21 5.36 1.2407758 0.172164 4.74
Dec. 31, 1990 7.927 22 6.43 2.2520477 0.1893128 5.33
Dec. 31, 1991 8.741 23 7.87 0.7618676 0.099857 6.12
Dec. 31, 1992 9.157 24 8.71 0.2027065 0.0491678 7.13
Dec. 31, 1993 9.546 25 9.14 0.1653691 0.0425996 8.07
Dec. 31, 1994 9.205 26 9.53 0.1056593 0.0353126 8.84
Dec. 31, 1995 10.84 27 9.22 2.6317043 0.1496543 9.16
Dec. 31, 1996 9.745 28 10.78 1.0637493 0.1058371 9.69
Dec. 31, 1997 10.86 29 9.79 1.1546655 0.098946 9.83
Dec. 31, 1998 12.5 30 10.82 2.8295928 0.1345711 10.16
Dec. 31, 1999 12.55 31 12.43 0.0134482 0.0092403 10.99
Dec. 31, 2000 10.1 32 12.55 5.980237 0.242124 11.41
Dec. 31, 2001 10.46 33 10.20 0.0697488 0.0252486 11.50
Dec. 31, 2002 10.92 34 10.45 0.2212356 0.043073 11.40
Dec. 31, 2003 11.72 35 10.90 0.6698528 0.0698332 11.01
Dec. 31, 2004 14.18 36 11.69 6.210542 0.1757472 10.80
Dec. 31, 2005 13.33 37 14.08 0.5659113 0.0564344 11.82
Dec. 31, 2006 13.48 38 13.36 0.0145201 0.0089391 12.54
Dec. 31, 2007 15.19 39 13.48 2.9402834 0.1128852 13.18
Dec. 31, 2008 17.03 40 15.12 3.6375802 0.1119932 14.05
Dec. 31, 2009 16.44 41 16.96 0.2654373 0.0313386 14.76
Dec. 31, 2010 16.17 42 16.46 0.0842185 0.0179471 15.54
Dec. 31, 2011 17.1 43 16.18 0.8438617 0.0537204 16.21
Dec. 31, 2012 19.16 44 17.06 4.3933178 0.1093958 16.69
Dec. 31, 2013 19.86 45 19.08 0.6118322 0.0393856 17.22
Dec. 31, 2014 20.08 46 19.83 0.0628377 0.0124838 18.07
Dec. 31, 2015 20.39 47 20.07 0.1022915 0.0156856 19.05
Dec. 31, 2016 20.88 48 20.38 0.2525488 0.0240681 19.87
Dec. 31, 2017 21.63 49 20.86 0.5924497 0.0355852 20.30
Dec. 31, 2018 18.55 50 21.60 9.3013739 0.1644105 20.75
18.67 20.36
Error % 6 Error % 8 Error %
0.9607843

0.08851 0.0772928
0.04213 0.0550121
0.00375 0.0163029 4.03 0.07326 0.0720433
0.09844 0.0763940 3.87 0.05515 0.0571788
0.33640 0.1306012 3.86 0.34203 0.1316896 4.004 0.191 0.0984576
0.17640 0.0948295 3.95 0.22610 0.1073606 3.973 0.208 0.1030424
0.30415 0.1164731 4.05 0.46603 0.1441746 4.001 0.539 0.1550422
1.03429 0.1867769 4.20 1.55003 0.2286501 4.111 1.781 0.2450643
2.06353 0.2317309 4.49 2.93551 0.2763887 4.312 3.562 0.3044443
1.17506 0.2632346 4.89 0.60011 0.1881172 4.606 0.238 0.1183827
2.76640 0.4805692 4.89 2.05492 0.4141867 4.654 1.423 0.3446619
0.02243 0.0321628 4.73 0.00565 0.0161440 4.617 0.002 0.0084031
0.25654 0.1234764 4.77 0.44489 0.1626036 4.686 0.340 0.1422477
0.47300 0.1441220 4.66 0.01177 0.0227368 4.643 0.017 0.0270065
0.20003 0.0952609 4.55 0.02064 0.0305999 4.686 0.000 0.0019169
0.68352 0.1535854 4.30 1.17145 0.2010651 4.681 0.493 0.1304106
2.99982 0.2676971 4.51 3.83572 0.3027048 4.673 3.228 0.2777048
6.74441 0.3276145 5.01 8.49140 0.3676044 4.707 10.368 0.4061909
6.87620 0.2999943 5.56 10.13043 0.3641269 5.183 12.658 0.4070186
4.10772 0.2213334 6.33 7.98439 0.3085800 5.843 10.981 0.3618816
2.16752 0.1542269 7.06 6.16943 0.2601962 6.406 9.860 0.3289467
0.13123 0.0393536 7.87 1.78045 0.1449575 7.086 4.489 0.2301602
2.81485 0.1547740 8.51 5.43978 0.2151599 7.641 10.237 0.2951568
0.00336 0.0059518 9.24 0.25908 0.0522319 8.409 1.786 0.1371344
1.05268 0.0944751 9.54 1.74504 0.1216390 8.954 3.633 0.175518
5.46391 0.1870000 9.89 6.80079 0.2086267 9.503 8.984 0.23979
2.44531 0.1246016 10.45 4.41280 0.1673838 10.074 6.129 0.1972709
1.72594 0.1300743 10.95 0.72250 0.0841584 10.550 0.203 0.0445916
1.08681 0.0996654 11.10 0.40853 0.0611058 10.668 0.043 0.0199092
0.23281 0.0441850 11.04 0.01342 0.0106074 10.783 0.019 0.0125916
0.50766 0.0607935 11.23 0.23847 0.0416667 10.997 0.523 0.0617001
11.42440 0.2383639 11.38 7.86803 0.1978138 11.107 9.444 0.2167225
2.28010 0.1132783 11.66 2.80563 0.1256564 11.661 2.785 0.1251875
0.88831 0.0699184 11.79 2.87303 0.1257418 11.970 2.280 0.1120178
4.05016 0.1324885 12.35 8.07507 0.1870748 12.093 9.595 0.2039171
8.91023 0.1752789 13.14 15.15804 0.2286162 12.423 21.229 0.270552
2.83081 0.1023418 14.16 5.22123 0.1389903 13.289 9.930 0.1916819
0.40323 0.0392703 14.94 1.50880 0.0759637 14.036 4.553 0.1319573
0.79656 0.0521930 15.27 3.33671 0.1068226 14.693 5.796 0.1407895
6.12562 0.1291754 15.90 10.61674 0.1700592 15.365 14.402 0.1980689
6.98281 0.1330564 16.85 9.07014 0.1516448 15.988 14.996 0.1949899
4.03006 0.0999751 17.63 6.01884 0.1221780 16.804 10.734 0.1631599
1.79560 0.0657185 18.14 5.08503 0.1105934 17.629 7.625 0.1354218
1.01506 0.0482519 18.79 4.35418 0.0999361 18.279 6.767 0.1245809
1.76226 0.0613731 19.58 4.20934 0.0948528 18.760 8.237 0.1326861
4.81802 0.1183288 20.33 3.18028 0.0961366 19.409 0.737 0.0462938
20.23 19.706
 Exponencia 7 10 12
RMSE 1.0913414 1.519424748 1.8935946 2.2941076
MAPE 9.27% 13.19256% 15.4% 17.3%

Para la serie de gastos en ciencia, espacio y

tecnología en USA, se realizar la previsión de los
gastos para el próximo año utilizando el modelo
de ajuste exponencial y el modelo de medias
móviles de 4, 6 y 8 periodos para realizar la
previsión.
Indicar con qué modelo se obtiene una mejor
previsión.
 Demanda
por Índice
Electronicos
Regresión Error %
180000
39000 28.4
160000
45000 32.8 40068.9721 2022047785 0.1095784
70000 51.0 46233.2754 4892856370 140000
0.33952464
73000 53.2 71917.8728 5321230938 120000
0.01482366
75000 54.7 75000.0245 5616799404 100000
3.2655E-07
80000 58.3 77054.7923 6390669544 0.0368151
80000
85000 62.0 82191.7118 7214466790 0.03303869 RMSE
90000 65.6 87328.6312 8088191142 0.02968188
60000 MAPE
90000 65.6 92465.5507 8088191142 0.02739501
40000
90000 65.6 92465.5507 8088191142 0.02739501
20000
95000 69.3 92465.5507 9011842600 0.02667841
105000 76.6 97602.4702 1.1009E+10 0.07045266
0
110000 80.2 107876.309 1.2082E+10 0.01930628
115000 83.9 113013.229 1.3206E+10 0.01727627
115000 83.9 118150.148 1.3206E+10 0.02739259
116000 84.6 118150.148 1.3436E+10 0.01853576
120000 87.5 119177.532 1.4379E+10 0.0068539
125000 91.2 123287.068 1.5602E+10 0.01370346
132000 96.3 128423.987 1.7399E+10 0.02709101
135000 98.4 135615.674 1.8198E+10 0.00456055
138000 100.6 138697.826 1.9016E+10 0.00505671
140000 102.1 141779.978 1.9571E+10 0.01271413
140000 102.1 143834.745 1.9571E+10 0.02739104
147000 107.2 143834.745 2.1577E+10 0.02153234
148000 107.9 151026.433 2.1872E+10 0.02044887
150000 109.4 152053.817 2.2467E+10 0.01369211
150000 109.4 154108.584 2.2467E+10 0.02739056
155000 113.0 154108.584 2.399E+10 0.00575107
155000 113.0 159245.504 2.399E+10 0.02739035
155000 113.3 159245.504 2.399E+10 0.02739035
 A B C
1.0001515 1.0266533 1.00189602

Demanda porUna fábrica de televisores y computadores, desea estimar su

119158.651 Electronicos demanda para el próximo periodo, para lo cual cuenta con
3.58228% Regresión datos históricos de demanda de electrónicos y de un índice
formado en función del crecimiento económico del país,
participación de mercados de los competidores, crecimiento
poblacional, entre las principales variables.
Los datos son presentados en la tabla, siendo el dato en la
posición 1 el más antiguo y el dato en la posición 30 el más
reciente.
Utilizando el método de regresión múltiple y ambas variables,
haga el pronóstico de la tendencia de la demanda para el
siguiente periodo.

Sugerencia: para estimar los coeficientes de la regresión

múltiple, inicialice todos los coeficientes con valor 1.
esea estimar su
al cuenta con
y de un índice
co del país,
es, crecimiento

el dato en la
ción 30 el más

ambas variables,
anda para el

a regresión
valor 1.
DEMANDA EN ENERGIA Regresión
LA PUNTA Error % A B C
95 59 0.1236215 1.0061936 0.0001632
94 57 95.722 2.9641 0.02
97 59 94.715 5.2207 0.02
99 59 97.734 1.6027 0.01
101 64 99.746 1.5715 0.01 RMSE 7.252
100 62 101.760 3.0963 0.02 MAPE 3.41%
98 62 100.753 7.5796 0.03
103 64 98.741 18.1415 0.04
108 68 103.772 17.8759 0.04
107 67 108.804 3.2531 0.02
104 65 107.797 14.4193 0.04
93 59 104.778 138.7299 0.13
97 57 93.709 10.8290 0.03 El RMSE es 7,252 y el MA
95 58 97.734 7.4731 0.03
95 56 95.721 0.5205 0.01 350
93 55 95.721 7.4047 0.03
88 59 93.709 32.5882 0.06 300
98 60 88.678 86.8943 0.10
99 61 98.740 0.0674 0.00 250
104 67 99.747 18.0902 0.04
105 68 104.779 0.0490 0.00 200
108 70 105.785 4.9060 0.02
111 70 108.804 4.8226 0.02 150
112 69 111.823 0.0315 0.00
98 59 112.829 219.8864 0.15 100
96 57 98.740 7.5088 0.03
101 61 96.728 18.2542 0.04 50
102 58 101.759 0.0580 0.00
97 61 102.765 33.2333 0.06 0
102 61 97.734 18.1957 0.04 1 13 25 37 49 61 7 3 8 5 97 0 9 2 1 3 3 4 5 5
1 1 1 1 1
104 63 102.765 1.5244 0.01
109 70 104.778 17.8250 0.04
117 74 109.810 51.6940 0.06
124 79 117.860 37.6953 0.05
118 75 124.905 47.6724 0.06
114 67 118.867 23.6848 0.04
108 69 114.841 46.7942 0.06
103 65 108.804 33.6840 0.06
108 63 103.772 17.8745 0.04
107 66 108.803 3.2501 0.02
118 70 107.797 104.0990 0.09
112 68 118.866 47.1405 0.06
119 74 112.828 38.0886 0.05
127 81 119.873 50.7979 0.06
135 87 127.923 50.0779 0.05
132 87 135.974 15.7923 0.03
127 84 132.955 35.4665 0.05
130 85 127.924 4.3101 0.02
119 77 130.943 142.6272 0.10
121 79 119.873 1.2696 0.01
111 65 121.886 118.5037 0.10
107 67 111.822 23.2490 0.05
111 68 107.797 10.2575 0.03
112 69 111.822 0.0316 0.00
113 70 112.829 0.0294 0.00
122 80 113.835 66.6685 0.07
126 84 122.892 9.6578 0.02
132 85 126.918 25.8295 0.04
128 88 132.955 24.5525 0.04
114 87 128.931 222.9278 0.13
112 76 114.844 8.0877 0.03
121 77 112.830 66.7537 0.07
131 76 121.886 83.0720 0.07
128 75 131.947 15.5819 0.03
127 80 128.929 3.7197 0.02
130 84 127.923 4.3128 0.02
128 84 130.942 8.6583 0.02
139 88 128.930 101.4026 0.07
144 97 139.999 16.0088 0.03
134 95 145.031 121.6903 0.08
134 96 134.969 0.9391 0.01
132 85 134.969 8.8163 0.02
124 83 132.955 80.1929 0.07
129 82 124.905 16.7676 0.03
126 77 129.936 15.4919 0.03
132 83 126.917 25.8411 0.04
133 84 132.955 0.0020 0.00
137 92 133.961 9.2350 0.02
137 90 137.987 0.9745 0.01
149 98 137.987 121.2898 0.07
150 104 150.062 0.0039 0.00
159 103 151.070 62.8907 0.05
144 99 160.125 260.0226 0.11
143 91 145.032 4.1276 0.01
136 94 144.024 64.3871 0.06
133 90 136.981 15.8507 0.03
137 92 133.962 9.2291 0.02
138 91 137.987 0.0002 0.00
142 97 138.993 9.0409 0.02
145 100 143.019 3.9246 0.01
145 94 146.038 1.0775 0.01
156 113 146.037 99.2607 0.06
155 109 157.108 4.4448 0.01
158 114 156.101 3.6046 0.01
155 108 159.121 16.9811 0.03
169 107 156.101 166.3776 0.08
141 95 170.188 851.9279 0.21
139 95 142.012 9.0747 0.02
140 93 140.000 0.0000 0.00
137 98 141.006 16.0473 0.03
140 102 137.988 4.0476 0.01
145 106 141.007 15.9411 0.03
156 106 146.039 99.2216 0.06
164 113 157.107 47.5117 0.04
168 119 165.158 8.0780 0.02
173 120 169.184 14.5651 0.02
167 117 174.215 52.0519 0.04
167 116 168.177 1.3854 0.01
160 111 168.177 66.8615 0.05
152 101 161.133 83.4065 0.06
158 104 153.082 24.1913 0.03
164 105 159.119 23.8224 0.03
165 112 165.157 0.0245 0.00
162 111 166.164 17.3376 0.03
162 109 163.145 1.3113 0.01
166 116 163.145 8.1523 0.02
173 122 167.171 33.9808 0.03
173 123 174.215 1.4763 0.01
176 122 174.215 3.1855 0.01
169 118 177.234 67.7923 0.05
158 111 170.190 148.5863 0.08
167 107 159.120 62.0892 0.05
162 109 168.175 38.1358 0.04
169 110 163.145 34.2837 0.03
175 117 170.188 23.1525 0.03
171 120 176.227 27.3173 0.03
175 121 172.202 7.8271 0.02
181 127 176.227 22.7791 0.03
181 128 182.265 1.6012 0.01
186 129 182.266 13.9461 0.02
182 125 187.297 28.0549 0.03
184 123 183.271 0.5311 0.00
184 121 185.283 1.6469 0.01
181 118 185.283 18.3440 0.02
185 121 182.264 7.4861 0.01
187 121 186.289 0.5053 0.00
190 126 188.302 2.8847 0.01
191 129 191.321 0.1030 0.00
188 129 192.328 18.7286 0.02
205 142 189.309 246.2052 0.08
216 150 206.416 91.8437 0.04
219 152 217.486 2.2924 0.01
221 154 220.505 0.2452 0.00
221 150 222.518 2.3029 0.01
208 137 222.517 210.7401 0.07
200 133 209.434 89.0051 0.05
204 140 201.384 6.8432 0.01
211 136 205.410 31.2485 0.03
216 140 212.453 12.5836 0.02
212 142 217.484 30.0774 0.03
208 142 213.460 29.8099 0.03
226 156 209.435 274.3970 0.07
238 167 227.549 109.2268 0.04
241 170 239.625 1.8907 0.01
239 163 242.644 13.2789 0.02
232 159 240.630 74.4855 0.04
221 146 233.586 158.4197 0.06
222 148 222.516 0.2665 0.00
216 145 223.523 56.5919 0.03
226 146 217.485 72.5034 0.04
233 157 227.547 29.7330 0.02
237 158 234.592 5.7968 0.01
235 161 238.617 13.0848 0.02
248 175 236.605 129.8370 0.05
260 186 249.688 106.3333 0.04
260 185 261.764 3.1128 0.01
248 183 261.764 189.4519 0.06
257 181 249.690 53.4434 0.03
236 161 258.745 517.3313 0.10
247 167 237.612 88.1423 0.04
246 163 248.681 7.1861 0.01
253 167 247.674 28.3679 0.02
255 171 254.718 0.0796 0.00
258 179 256.731 1.6106 0.00
256 182 259.751 14.0684 0.01
260 182 257.739 5.1126 0.01
259 192 261.764 7.6378 0.01
272 195 260.759 126.3578 0.04
272 192 273.840 3.3860 0.01
274 188 273.840 0.0257 0.00
255 171 275.851 434.7789 0.08
255 181 256.731 2.9960 0.01
250 179 256.733 45.3270 0.03
274 188 251.701 497.2348 0.08
277 196 275.851 1.3194 0.00
274 194 278.871 23.7290 0.02
273 200 275.852 8.1358 0.01
286 211 274.847 124.3868 0.04
300 219 287.929 145.6987 0.04
305 223 302.017 8.8956 0.01
302 212 307.049 25.4931 0.02
292 200 304.029 144.6894 0.04
270 187 293.965 574.3114 0.09
271 177 271.826 0.6830 0.00
268 180 272.831 23.3383 0.02

El RMSE es 7,252 y el MAPE es 3,41%.
Una distribuidora de energia desea prever su dem
punta mensual de energía, porque está implemen
proyecto de instalación de equipos de seguridad p
carga. Esta previsión es importante porque la can
equipos, el nivel de protección y el valor a invertir
la cantidad de energia que pueden soportar.
Utilizando el método de regresión múltiple y amb
haga el pronóstico de la tendencia de la demanda
siguiente periodo e indicar el error de la previsión

DEMANDA EN
LA PUNTA
Regresión

61 7 3 8 5 97 1 0 9 1 2 1 13 3 1 4 5 1 5 7 16 9 1 8 1 1 9 3
 sea prever su demanda en la
ue está implementando un
pos de seguridad por sobre
nte porque la cantidad de estos
y el valor a invertir depende de
den soportar.
ón múltiple y ambas variables,
cia de la demanda para el
ror de la previsión.
Datos del Precio de Petroleo Mensual: WTI, Brent y Mezcla Mexicana
Para descripción y detalles de estos indices de referencia: http://www,nibgroup,net/brent-wti,html
PRECIO PRECIO PRECIO
PERIODO (USD/Bbl) (USD/Bbl) (USD/Bbl) Tendencia
WTI BRENT MME Error %
2005-01 46.91 44.32 31.69

2005-02 49.09 46.57 33.69 45.614 0.91079821 0.0205

2005-03 54.19 53.26 38.43 50.516 7.53933645 0.0516
2005-04 52.98 51.88 39.86 51.548 0.11273193 0.0065
2005-05 49.834 48.613 40.053 50.558 3.78161825 0.0400
2005-06 56.352 54.355 44.679 55.441 1.17915898 0.0200
2005-07 59.096 57.818 46.556 57.970 0.02316159 0.0026
2005-08 64.39 63.434 50.338 62.399 1.07103672 0.0163
2005-09 65.88 64.087 50.967 63.700 0.14950462 0.0060
2005-10 62.592 59.731 48.007 60.756 1.05014491 0.0172
2005-11 58.461 56.479 43.758 56.333 0.0213569 0.0026
2005-12 59.272 57.442 45.088 57.225 0.04718089 0.0038
2006-01 65.291 63.296 50.178 62.558 0.54410405 0.0117
2006-02 59.946 60.355 48.8 60.360 2.9411E-05 0.0001
2006-03 63.053 63.086 51.367 62.823 0.06900364 0.0042
2006-04 69.959 70.192 57.09 68.985 1.45640737 0.0172
2006-05 70.944 70.989 56.767 69.611 1.89816539 0.0194
2006-06 70.992 69.773 55.665 68.966 0.65069944 0.0116
2006-07 74.522 74.408 59.426 72.470 3.75462457 0.0260
2006-08 73.107 73.927 60.153 72.826 1.21328714 0.0149
2006-09 63.906 63.463 51.305 64.049 0.343119 0.0092
2006-10 59.261 59.81 48.51 59.962 0.02317658 0.0025
2006-11 59.539 59.884 47.601 59.193 0.47782726 0.0115
2006-12 62.095 62.281 49.768 61.437 0.71262274 0.0136
2007-01 54.423 54.408 44.404 55.636 1.50751019 0.0226
2007-02 59.435 58.851 48.352 59.255 0.16295748 0.0069
2007-03 60.93 62.438 50.473 61.445 0.98636257 0.0159
2007-04 64.019 67.597 54.553 65.365 4.98251255 0.0330
2007-05 63.678 67.818 56.186 66.696 1.25893925 0.0165
2007-06 67.946 70.127 59.997 70.576 0.20142148 0.0064
2007-07 74.158 75.934 64.538 75.712 0.04930587 0.0029
2007-08 72.363 71.235 63.04 74.579 11.1827214 0.0469
2007-09 79.53 77.121 67.491 79.454 5.44120374 0.0302
2007-10 85.474 82.572 72.077 84.794 4.93539152 0.0269
2007-11 92.742 89.446 79.838 92.600 9.94628353 0.0353
2008-01 92.913 92.138 80.151 93.361 1.49499266 0.0133
2008-02 95.349 94.071 81.398 95.157 1.17971248 0.0115
2008-03 105.547 102.894 89.355 103.781 0.78658864 0.0086
2008-04 112.191 110.188 94.902 110.188 1.0053E-08 0.0000
2008-05 125.337 124.463 104.184 121.019 11.8604266 0.0277
2008-06 134.135 133.76 114.152 131.403 5.5576815 0.0176
2008-07 133.527 134.025 120.252 135.862 3.37514115 0.0137
2008-08 116.757 115.353 106.637 121.586 38.8562034 0.0540
2008-09 104.698 101.426 85.572 102.593 1.36142913 0.0115
2008-10 76.771 73.785 60.274 76.059 5.17309979 0.0308
2008-11 57.427 55.492 42.398 56.138 0.41673523 0.0116
2008-12 42.129 43.137 33.695 44.186 1.10074344 0.0243
2009-01 41.537 45.876 37.954 45.871 2.9519E-05 0.0001
2009-02 39.104 43.981 38.239 45.470 2.2181866 0.0339
2009-03 48.089 47.351 42.032 50.708 11.2676784 0.0709
2009-04 49.882 51.321 47.765 55.271 15.6036212 0.0770
2009-05 59.534 58.75 56.42 64.322 31.0506211 0.0948
2009-06 69.694 69.419 64.357 73.322 15.2317248 0.0562
2009-07 64.331 64.489 60.953 70.148 32.0274429 0.0878
2009-08 71.093 72.835 67.212 76.054 10.362762 0.0442
2009-09 69.31 68.222 64.734 74.471 39.054344 0.0916
2009-10 75.635 73.632 68.872 78.876 27.5008103 0.0712
2009-11 78.041 77.799 72.48 82.401 21.1760751 0.0591
2009-12 74.618 75.24 69.665 79.764 20.4623012 0.0601
2010-01 78.397 77.127 72.225 82.467 28.5134579 0.0692
2010-02 76.298 74.79 70.241 80.633 34.1378626 0.0781
2010-03 81.307 80.077 72.145 83.322 10.5286702 0.0405
2010-04 84.676 85.954 74.39 86.260 0.09347652 0.0036
2010-05 74.053 77.093 67.809 78.966 3.50753719 0.0243
2010-06 75.544 75.76 67.413 78.543 7.74323244 0.0367
2010-07 76.151 75.478 68.51 79.357 15.0450432 0.0514
2010-08 76.705 77.122 69.814 80.365 10.5201034 0.0421
2010-09 75.539 78.408 70.266 80.404 3.98211949 0.0255
2010-10 81.975 83.536 74.692 85.462 3.71100435 0.0231
2010-11 84.449 86.274 77.461 88.441 4.69728936 0.0251
2010-12 89.294 92.271 82.194 93.292 1.04326671 0.0111
2011-01 89.672 96.893 85.948 96.300 0.35167665 0.0061
2011-02 89.703 103.974 90.54 99.642 18.7700118 0.0417
2011-03 102.992 114.678 102.377 112.169 6.29279225 0.0219
2011-04 110.039 123.073 109.474 119.855 10.3580978 0.0262
2011-05 101.357 114.424 104.441 114.381 0.00186362 0.0004
2011-06 96.289 113.716 102.994 111.169 6.48671192 0.0224
2011-07 97.312 116.806 104.821 112.639 17.3620583 0.0357
2011-08 86.341 109.876 98.671 105.311 20.8429897 0.0416
2011-09 85.515 110.036 100.097 105.468 20.8671098 0.0415
2011-10 86.428 108.787 101.146 106.459 5.42161907 0.0214
2011-11 97.16 110.466 107.619 114.055 12.8805483 0.0325
2011-12 98.587 107.728 106.334 113.801 36.8753178 0.0564
2012-01 100.806 110.933 108.543 115.758 23.2798969 0.0435
2012-02 102.283 118.97 110.233 117.571 1.95749789 0.0118
2012-03 106.226 124.545 112.82 121.118 11.7448066 0.0275
2012-04 103.346 120.491 108.044 117.480 9.06526514 0.0250
2012-05 94.548 110.289 102.237 110.556 0.07118436 0.0024
2012-06 82.388 95.926 91.393 98.812 8.33113866 0.0301
2012-07 87.931 102.856 95.365 102.145 0.50573802 0.0069
2012-08 94.168 112.607 101.532 108.687 15.3700714 0.0348
2012-09 94.588 112.836 102.103 109.906 8.58456489 0.0260
2012-10 89.564 111.471 99.096 106.339 26.3361005 0.0460
2012-11 86.763 109.527 95.389 102.918 43.6852815 0.0603
2012-12 88.246 109.198 96.668 104.089 26.1049142 0.0468
2013-01 94.858 112.326 100.601 108.765 12.6799334 0.0317
2013-02 95.322 115.959 105.426 112.289 13.4653661 0.0316
2013-03 92.957 109.542 102.978 110.194 0.42557812 0.0060
2013-04 92.068 103.425 99.116 106.921 12.219612 0.0338
2013-05 94.8 103.306 98.673 107.068 14.1521267 0.0364
2013-06 95.9 103.341 97.86 106.884 12.5559568 0.0343
2013-07 104.699 107.513 100.996 111.774 18.1574453 0.0396
2013-08 106.539 110.448 100.844 112.574 4.5191488 0.0192
2013-09 106.235 111.104 99.741 111.971 0.7509287 0.0078
2013-10 100.553 109.44 94.953 107.061 5.66009329 0.0217
2013-11 93.854 107.906 89.541 101.247 44.348217 0.0617
2013-12 97.894 110.702 91.651 103.815 47.4239275 0.0622
2014-01 94.835 107.113 90.65 102.379 22.4138582 0.0442
2014-02 100.657 108.835 93.093 105.590 10.5272521 0.0298
2014-03 100.509 107.748 93.481 105.921 3.33691825 0.0170
2014-04 102.035 108.09 95.684 107.771 0.10150475 0.0029
2014-05 101.8 109.222 96.794 108.444 0.60490184 0.0071
2014-06 105.16 111.967 98.788 110.912 1.11211953 0.0094
2014-07 102.392 108.074 94.647 107.518 0.30871236 0.0051
2014-08 96.076 103.396 90.803 102.688 0.50190719 0.0069
2014-09 93.167 98.57 85.822 98.159 0.16928201 0.0042
2014-10 84.339 88.05 75.233 88.050 2.9239E-12 0.0000
2014-11 75.704 79.629 71.389 81.987 5.55784216 0.0296
2014-12 59.29 63.332 52.364 63.664 0.11042895 0.0052
2015-01 47.371 49.824 41.698 51.670 3.4078803 0.0371
2015-02 50.828 58.795 47.257 55.426 11.3506872 0.0573
2015-03 47.854 56.939 47.359 55.186 3.0716982 0.0308
2015-04 54.628 61.136 50.694 59.414 2.96615024 0.0282
2015-05 59.372 65.613 54.061 63.448 4.6874922 0.0330
2015-06 59.829 63.704 53.869 63.797 0.00865745 0.0015
2015-07 51.191 56.867 46.558 56.100 0.58798867 0.0135
2015-08 42.889 48.205 39.705 48.451 0.06048501 0.0051
2015-09 45.492 48.487 37.934 47.505 0.96454877 0.0203
2015-10 46.29 49.292 37.458 47.473 3.30931122 0.0369
2015-11 42.923 45.886 35.429 45.121 0.58534258 0.0167
2015-12 37.327 38.904 28.684 38.667 0.05638585 0.0061
2016-01 31.776 31.921 23.911 33.252 1.77061252 0.0417
2016-02 30.617 33.527 24.48 32.739 0.62134653 0.0235
2016-03 37.961 39.79 29.445 38.466 1.75367356 0.0333
2016-04 41.125 43.34 32.278 41.792 2.39599205 0.0357
2016-05 46.797 47.546 37.269 47.138 0.16662204 0.0086
2016-06 48.853 49.927 40.052 49.924 1.1828E-05 0.0001
2016-07 44.8 46.535 38.746 47.936 1.96417126 0.0301
2016-08 44.799 47.159 38.403 47.465 0.09363217 0.0065
2016-09 45.226 47.222 37.758 47.228 3.4473E-05 0.0001
2016-10 49.94 51.388 40.539 50.569 0.67141317 0.0159
2016-11 45.764 47.08 38.201 47.999 0.8447664 0.0195
net/brent-wti,html A B C D

Previsión
Error % 4.55684139 0.32302188 0.072969331 0.65207061

43.245 11.0414869 0.0714 Tendencia Previsión

45.547 59.5216219 0.1449 RMSE 2.783 6.910
51.083 0.64226998 0.0154 MAPE 2.65% 6.94%
51.261 7.01181334 0.0545
49.709 21.5836907 0.0855
55.753 4.26294004 0.0357 160.00
58.332 26.0275727 0.0804 140.00
63.324 0.58198693 0.0119
120.00
64.411 21.9016593 0.0783
60.895 19.5035996 0.0782 100.00
56.332 1.2325557 0.0193
80.00
57.537 33.1616702 0.0910 PRECIO (USD/Bbl) BR
63.631 10.7317862 0.0543 60.00 Tendencia
60.197 8.34883605 0.0458
40.00
63.286 47.6895977 0.0984
70.238 0.56379127 0.0106 20.00
70.556 0.61337199 0.0112
0.00
69.854 20.7375516 0.0612
73.962 0.0012473 0.0005
73.705 104.899455 0.1614
63.665 14.8600579 0.0645 160.00
59.679 0.04208544 0.0034
140.00
59.285 8.97330373 0.0481
61.870 55.6799568 0.1371 120.00
54.722 17.045762 0.0702
100.00
59.598 8.06739717 0.0455
61.759 34.0786585 0.0864 80.00
PRECIO (USD/Bb
65.889 3.72061771 0.0284
60.00 Previsión
66.693 11.7908059 0.0490
70.998 24.3621717 0.0650 40.00
76.859 31.6289349 0.0789
20.00
74.841 5.19856143 0.0296
81.089 2.1990004 0.0180 0.00
86.829 6.85097849 0.0293
95.105 8.80394893 0.0322
95.557 2.20838818 0.0158
97.522 28.8545625 0.0522
107.383 7.86949231 0.0255
114.128 106.821702 0.0830
126.484 52.9443364 0.0544
136.904 8.2875369 0.0215
140.170 615.863151 0.2151
123.349 480.632662 0.2162
104.707 956.167372 0.4191
75.429 397.465339 0.3593
55.006 140.870597 0.2751
42.145 13.9211601 0.0813
44.533 0.30423768 0.0125
43.456 15.1700192 0.0823
49.969 1.82802856 0.0263
54.379 19.1021068 0.0744
64.295 26.2579518 0.0738
74.259 95.4532986 0.1515
69.503 11.0991804 0.0457
76.789 73.387536 0.1256
74.216 0.34143614 0.0079
79.867 4.27715996 0.0266
83.343 65.6568199 0.1077
79.979 8.13313646 0.0370
83.309 72.5729879 0.1139
81.042 0.9313239 0.0121
84.796 1.34036768 0.0135
88.045 119.948149 0.1421
78.784 9.14236837 0.0399
79.136 13.3822952 0.0485
80.025 8.42787363 0.0376
81.148 7.50706019 0.0349
80.972 6.57461499 0.0307
86.819 0.29720015 0.0063
89.739 6.41332044 0.0274
95.103 3.20374373 0.0185
97.775 38.4279643 0.0596
100.950 188.458427 0.1197
114.590 71.9622331 0.0689
122.492 65.0932025 0.0705
115.021 1.70359997 0.0115
111.833 24.727795 0.0426
113.575 13.6831166 0.0337
104.543 30.1696779 0.0499
105.003 14.3167255 0.0348
105.934 20.5401437 0.0410
114.666 48.1385016 0.0644
114.375 11.8492429 0.0310
116.889 4.33045342 0.0175
119.113 29.5017942 0.0436
122.799 5.32559326 0.0192
118.441 66.4601618 0.0739
110.359 208.317009 0.1505
97.542 28.2347693 0.0517
102.851 95.1706904 0.0866
109.946 8.35145825 0.0256
110.483 0.97603909 0.0089
106.367 9.98583904 0.0289
102.814 40.7496582 0.0585
104.203 65.9852181 0.0723
109.702 39.1553527 0.0540
112.960 11.6822033 0.0312
110.011 43.3748778 0.0637
106.937 13.1856823 0.0352
107.913 20.9069802 0.0442
107.946 0.18742153 0.0040
114.053 12.9924827 0.0326
115.011 15.2665505 0.0352
114.283 23.4580985 0.0443
108.818 0.83252115 0.0085
102.541 66.6075608 0.0737
105.795 1.73778967 0.0123
103.570 27.7246089 0.0484
107.748 9.1283E-11 0.0000
107.827 0.06931509 0.0024
109.817 0.35345457 0.0054
110.432 2.3555593 0.0137
113.307 27.3828795 0.0484
109.379 35.7915422 0.0579
103.954 28.9906061 0.0546
99.410 129.045645 0.1290
88.530 79.2199943 0.1118
81.783 340.444563 0.2913
62.171 152.446531 0.2478
49.628 84.0377901 0.1559
55.053 3.55754395 0.0331
53.628 56.3722012 0.1228
58.932 44.6408867 0.1018
63.352 0.12378979 0.0055
63.312 41.5326041 0.1133
54.675 41.8663623 0.1342
46.325 4.6735645 0.0446
46.505 7.76919412 0.0565
46.650 0.58371562 0.0167
43.704 23.0444014 0.1234
36.766 23.4751722 0.1518
30.987 6.45162451 0.0758
30.905 78.947801 0.2233
37.557 33.4408721 0.1334
40.885 44.3657904 0.1401
46.646 10.7676889 0.0657
49.358 7.96695843 0.0607
46.519 0.40952093 0.0136
46.365 0.73380538 0.0181
46.191 27.0055986 0.1011
50.237 9.96951654 0.0671
 A B C D

0.4540987 0.32302265 0.07188244 0.57751232

El RMSE es 6,910 y el MAPE es 6,94%.

Se tiene el historico mensual de precios de de tres

diferentes tipos de petroleo negociados en el merca
(WTI, Brent y Mezcla Mexicana).
Utilizando el método de regresión múltiple y las tres
PRECIO (USD/Bbl) BRENT
Tendencia
variables:
1. Estime la tendencia para el precio de petroleo BR

2. Haga el pronóstico de la tendencia del precio de

petroleo BRENT para el siguiente periodo e indicar e
de la previsión.

PRECIO (USD/Bbl) BRENT

Previsión
e precios de de tres
gociados en el mercado
).
ón múltiple y las tres
recio de petroleo BRENT.

dencia del precio de

te periodo e indicar el error