Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
AÑO VENTAS
2009 27,000
2010 24,000
2011 26,000
2012 28,000
2013 29,500
2014 30,000
2015 29,000
2016 31,000
TENDENCIA SIMPLE
AÑO Y X
1 27,000 0
2 24,000 1
3 26,000 2
4 28,000 3
5 29,500 4
6 30,000 5
7 29,000 6
8 31,000 7
AÑO MAS RECIENTE MENOS AÑO MAS ANTIGUO 31,000 - 27,000 = 4,000
4,000 8-1
DIFERENCIA DIVIDIDO N-1 571.428571 (la serie tiene 8 años = 8-1)
YC= a+bx
a = 27,000
b = 571.43
x = 8
yc 31,571.43
ARITMETICO
1 27,000.00
571.43
2 27,571.43
571.43
3 28,142.86
571.43
4 28,714.29
571.43
5 29,285.71
571.43
6 29,857.14
571.43
7 30,428.57
571.43
8 31,000.00
571.43
9 31,571.43
571.43
10 32,142.86
571.43
11 32,714.29
571.43
12 33,285.71
SEMIPROMEDIOS
CASO AÑOS PARES
X X
2009 1 27,000
2010 2 24,000
2011 3 26,000 1
2012 4 28,000 3 105,000 4
2013 5 29,500 5
2014 6 30,000 7
2015 7 29,000 9 1
2016 8 31,000 11 3 119,500 4
PROMEDIO DE CADA GRUPO 26,250.00 29,875.00
DIFERENCIA DE PROMEDIOS 3,625 8
DIVIDIDO N ELEMENTOS DE LA SERIE REAL 8 NUMERO DE ELEMENTOS DE LOS 2 GRUPOS
453.125
PROMEDIO UNO
YC= a+bx
a = 26,250
b = 453.13
x = 13
yc 32,140.63 año 2017
15
33,046.88 año 2018
17
33,953.13 año 2019
19 906.25
34,859.38 año 2020
PROMEDIO DOS
YC= a+bx
a = 29,875
b = 453.125
x = 5
yc 32,140.63 año 2017
7.00
33,046.88 año 2018
9.00 906.25
33,953.13 año 2019
11
34,859.38 año 2020 906.25
DATOS
AÑO VENTAS
2009 27,000
2010 24,000
2011 26,000
2012 28,000
2013 29,500
2014 30,000
2015 29,000
SEMIPROMEDIOS
CASO AÑOS IMPARES
X X
1 27,000 27,000
25,500
2 24,000 24,000
25,000 0 7
3 26,000 26,000 1
27,000 2
4 28,000 28,000 3 182,500
28,750 4
5 29,500 29,500 5
29,750 6
6 30,000 30,000 7 0
29,500 8 1
7 29,000 29,000 9 2
28,500 10 3 205,000.00 7
PROMEDIO DE CADA GRUPO 26,071.43 29,285.71 7 7
DIFERENCIA DE PROMEDIOS 3,214.29
DIVIDIDO N ELEMENTOS DE CADA GRUPO 459.183673 SON 7 ELEMENTOS
PROMEDIO UNO PROMEDIO UNO
YC= a+bx YC= a+bx
a = 26,071 a = 26,071
b = 459.18 b = 459.18
x = 11 x = 12 √
año 2,016 yc 31,122.45 yc 31,581.63
TENDENCIA SIMPLE
2,000.00 a = 27,000
6 b = 333.333333
x = 7.00
yc 29,333.33
MINIMOS CUADRADOS CASO AÑOS PARES,
METODO LARGO
N Y X X XY yc=a+bx
1 27,000 0 0 0.00 25,291.67
2 24,000 1 1 24,000.00 26,083.33
3 26,000 2 4 52,000.00 26,875.00
4 28,000 3 9 84,000.00 27,666.67
5 29,500 4 16 118,000.00 28,458.33
6 30,000 5 25 150,000.00 29,250.00
7 29,000 6 36 174,000.00 30,041.67
8 31,000 7 49 217,000.00 30,833.33
224,500 28 140 819,000.00 31,625.00 VENTAS DEL 2017
∑y=Na+b∑x
2
∑xy=a∑x+b∑x
224,500.00 = 8.0000 a +b 28
819,000.00 = 28.0000 a +b 140 -5
202333.33
22166.667
224500 224,500.00 = 8.00 a +b 28.00
-163,800.00 -5.60 -28.00
60,700.00 2.40 a 0.00
60,700.00 = 25,291.67 a
2.40
224,500.00 = 202,333.33
22,166.67 b 28.00
22,166.67
28.00 791.6667
25,291.67 6333.333
31,625.00
0.00
N Y X X XY yc=a+bx
1 27,000 -7 49 -189,000.00 28,062.50
2 24,000 -5 25 -120,000.00 28,458.33
3 26,000 -3 9 -78,000.00 28,854.17
4 28,000 -1 1 -28,000.00 29,250.00
5 29,500 1 1 29,500.00 29,645.83
6 30,000 3 9 90,000.00 30,041.67
7 29,000 5 25 145,000.00 30,437.50
8 31,000 7 49 217,000.00 30,833.33
224,500 0 168 66,500.00 31,625.00 VENTAS DEL 2017
sumy=Na+bsumx
2
sumxy=a+bsumx
224,500.00 = 8.0000 a
28,062.50 = a
Sum y =Na
2
Sum xy =bsumx 66,500.00 = 168.00
395.83
yc = a +bx
yc 28,062.50 395.83 9 CALCULO PARA EL AÑO 2017
yc 28,062.50 3,562.50
yc 31,625.00
0.00
N Y X X XY yc=a+bx
1 27,000 0 0 0.00 25,339.29
2 24,000 1 1 24,000.00 26,107.14
3 26,000 2 4 52,000.00 26,875.00
4 28,000 3 9 84,000.00 27,642.86
5 29,500 4 16 118,000.00 28,410.71
6 30,000 5 25 150,000.00 29,178.57
7 29,000 6 36 174,000.00 29,946.43
193,500 21 91 602,000 30,714.29 CALCULO PARA EL AÑO 2016
∑ ∑y=Na+b∑x
2
∑ ∑xy=a∑x+b∑x
193,500.00 = 7.0000 a +b 21
602,000.00 = 21.0000 a +b 91 -4.33333333
177375
16125
193500 193,500.00 = 7.00 a +b 21.00
-138,923.08 -4.85 -21.00
54,576.92 2.15 a 0.00
54,576.92 = 25,339.29 a
2.15
193,500.00 = 177,375.00
16,125.00 b 21.00
16,125.00
21.00 767.8571
25,339.29 5375
30,714.29
0.00
N Y X X XY yc=a+bx
1 27,000 -3 9 -81,000.00 27,642.86
2 24,000 -2 4 -48,000.00 28,410.71
3 26,000 -1 1 -26,000.00 29,178.57
4 28,000 0 0 0.00 29,946.43
5 29,500 1 1 29,500.00 30,714.29
6 30000 2 4 60,000.00 31,482.14
7 29,000 3 9 87,000.00 30,714.29
193,500 0 28 21,500.00 30,714.29 CALCULO PARA EL AÑO 2016
∑y=Na+b∑x
2
∑xy=a∑x+b∑x
193,500.00 = 7.0000 a
27,642.86 = a
Sum y =Na
2
Sum xy =bsumx 21,500.00 = 28.00
767.86
6 30,000 2
yc = a +bx
yc 27,642.86 767.86 4 CALCULO PARA EL AÑO 2016
yc 27,642.86 3,071.43
yc 30,714.29
0.00