DISTRIBUCION NORMAL y LOG-NORMAL

ESTUDIO HIDROLOGICO DE LA sub cuenCa san miGUEL

D. NORMAL
Weibull Q
Orden Probabilidad (ft3/s) X=Log(Q) z
1 0.0455 970 2.986772 1.69062
2 0.0909 753 2.876795 1.33518
3 0.1364 534 2.727541 1.09680
4 0.1818 436 2.639486 0.90846
5 0.2273 429 2.632457 0.74786
6 0.2727 428 2.631444 0.60459 PARAMETROS:
7 0.3182 414 2.617000 0.47279
8 0.3636 412 2.614897 0.34876
9 0.4091 392 2.593286 0.22988
10 0.4545 386 2.586587 0.11419
11 0.5000 368 2.565848 0.00000
12 0.5455 332 2.521138 -0.11419
13 0.5909 307 2.487138 -0.22988
14 0.6364 290 2.462398 -0.34876
15 0.6818 287 2.457882 -0.47279
16 0.7273 260 2.414973 -0.60459
17 0.7727 211 2.324282 -0.74786
18 0.8182 186 2.269513 -0.90846
19 0.8636 184 2.264818 -1.09680
20 0.9091 135 2.130334 -1.33518
21 0.9545 92 1.963788 -1.69062
μ=Xma= 372 2.512780
σ=SD= 201 0.234892
D. LOG-NORMAL

DISTRIBUCION NORMAL
Probabilidad z
(Xm-SD)= 171 0.8413 -0.99982
(Xm+SD)= 572 0.1587 0.99982

PARAMETROS:
X= Xm+KS

K=(X-Xm)/S

TABLA, z=2.327; para la probabilidad de 0.01

Redondeo, X= 372+2.327(201)=840 ft3/s

DISTRIBUCION LOG-NORMAL

Valor Log anti-log Probabilidad z

(Xm-SD)= 2.277888 190 0.8413 -0.99982
(Xm+SD)= 2.747672 559 0.1587 0.99982

DISTRIB NORMAL probabilistica

Distribucion Normal = Xbar + zS 0.0025
T p z Q
2 0.5 0.000 372
5 0.2 0.842 541 0.002
10 0.1 1.282 629
0.0015 DISTRIB NORMAL

0.001

0.0005

0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

HIDROLOGIA
 0.0025

0.002
DISTRIBUCION NORMAL y LOG-NORMAL

20 0.05 1.645 702 0.0015 DISTRIB NORMAL

50 0.02 2.054 784
100 0.01 2.326 839
0.001
200 0.005 2.576 889
500 0.002 2.878 950
0.0005

0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

= Xbar + zS
DISTRIBUC LOG NORMAL probabilistica
Distribucion Log-normal
T p z X Q 1.8
2 0.5 0.00000 2.51278 326 1.6
5 0.2 0.84162 2.71047 513 1.4
10 0.1 1.28155 2.81381 651
20 0.05 1.64485 2.89914 793 1.2
50 0.02 2.05375 2.99519 989 1 DISTRIBUC LOG NORMAL
100 0.01 2.32635 3.05922 1,146 0.8
200 0.005 2.57583 3.11782 1,312
0.6
500 0.002 2.87816 3.18884 1,545
0.4
0.2
0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

DISTRIB NORMAL DIST. LOG-NORMAL acumulada

CAUDAL cfs

acumulada
CAUDAL Ln (cfs)

950
850 500
750
650
550
450
350
250
150
50 50

Probabilidad (%) Probabilidad (%)

HIDROLOGIA
 DISTRIBUCION NORMAL y LOG-NORMAL

O HIDROLOGICO DE LA sub cuenCa san miGUEL

Distrib Probabilisticas
D Normal D Log Normal
2.344229E-05 0.2217307722
0.0003273909 0.5111405345
0.0014332724 1.1181998121
0.0018877235 1.4684392583
0.0019077549 1.4916676148
0.0019104443 1.4949365945
0.001943427 1.5391908041
0.0019474119 1.545255685
0.001976895 1.6015229948
0.0019819879 1.6165959824
0.0019866714 1.655607837
0.0019485165 1.6973292892
0.0018864294 1.6883146733
0.0018290735 1.6597819204
0.0018177811 1.6526458814
0.0017020489 1.5573711391
0.0014423244 1.2308420834
0.0012954152 0.993422469
0.0012834702 0.9728746276
0.0009916433 0.4512250067
0.0007528921 0.1106284458

DISTRIB NORMAL probabilistica

0.0025

0.002

0.0015 DISTRIB NORMAL

0.001

0.0005

0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

HIDROLOGIA
0.0025

0.002
DISTRIBUCION NORMAL y LOG-NORMAL

0.0015 DISTRIB NORMAL

0.001

0.0005

0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

DISTRIBUC LOG NORMAL probabilistica

1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1 DISTRIBUC LOG NORMAL

0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

DIST. LOG-NORMAL acumulada

CAUDAL Ln (cfs)

500

50
Probabilidad (%)

HIDROLOGIA
 DISTRIBUCION LOG-PERSON III (Gamma 3 param.)

ESTUDIO HIDROLOGICO DE LA SUB CUENCA SAN MIGUEL

Distribucion Log Pearson 3P

F. DENSIDAD PARAMETROS

Q X=log(Q) Orden Pp z Q
970 2.98677 1 0.04545 1.69062 970
753 2.87679 2 0.09091 1.33518 753
534 2.72754 3 0.13636 1.09680 534
436 2.63949 4 0.18182 0.90846 436
429 2.63246 5 0.22727 0.74786 429
428 2.63144 6 0.27273 0.60459 428
414 2.61700 7 0.31818 0.47279 414
412 2.61490 8 0.36364 0.34876 412
392 2.59329 9 0.40909 0.22988 392
386 2.58659 10 0.45455 0.11419 386
368 2.56585 11 0.50000 0.00000 368
332 2.52114 12 0.54545 -0.11419 332
307 2.48714 13 0.59091 -0.22988 307
290 2.46240 14 0.63636 -0.34876 290
287 2.45788 15 0.68182 -0.47279 287
260 2.41497 16 0.72727 -0.60459 260
211 2.32428 17 0.77273 -0.74786 211
186 2.26951 18 0.81818 -0.90846 186
184 2.26482 19 0.86364 -1.09680 184
135 2.13033 20 0.90909 -1.33518 135
92 1.96379 21 0.95455 -1.69062 92

Xbar= 2.51
S= 0.23
G= -0.365 redondeo, G=-0.4

p T K Xm+KSx z Q
0.99 1.01 -2.61539 1.8984 -2.32635 79
0.90 1.11 -1.31671 2.2035 -1.28155 160
0.70 1.43 -0.47228 2.4018 -0.52440 252
0.50 2 0.06651 2.5284 0.00000 338
0.20 5 0.85508 2.7136 0.84162 517
0.10 10 1.23114 2.8020 1.28155 634
0.05 20 1.52357 2.8707 1.64485 742
0.02 50 1.83361 2.9435 2.05375 878
0.01 100 2.02933 2.9895 2.32635 976
0.005 200 2.20092 3.0298 2.57583 1,071
0.002 500 2.39942 3.0764 2.87816 1,192

LP3 acumulada
CAUDAL (cfs)

500

50

Probabilidad (%)

99.8 99.5 99 98 95 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 5 2 1 .5 .2

HIDROLOGIA
 DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL

ESTUDIO HIDROLOGICO DE LA SUBCUENCA SAN MIGUEL

Distribucion Gumbel
FUNCION DENSIDAD

Q Orden Pp z Q PARAMETROS
970 1 0.04545 3.06787 970
753 2 0.09091 2.35062 753
534 3 0.13636 1.92002 534
436 4 0.18182 1.60609 436
429 5 0.22727 1.35546 429
428 6 0.27273 1.14428 428
414 7 0.31818 0.95974 414
412 8 0.36364 0.79411 412
392 9 0.40909 0.64228 392
386 10 0.45455 0.50065 386
368 11 0.50000 0.36651 368
332 12 0.54545 0.23768 332
307 13 0.59091 0.11225 307
290 14 0.63636 -0.01153 290
287 15 0.68182 -0.13552 287
260 16 0.72727 -0.26181 260
211 17 0.77273 -0.39313 211
186 18 0.81818 -0.53342 186
184 19 0.86364 -0.68936 184
135 20 0.90909 -0.87459 135
92 21 0.95455 -1.12851 92
N= 21
Xm= 371.71
S= 200.78

= -LN(-LN(1-p))
M= 281.35548 lugar estadistico
B= 156.54429 escala estadistica = M + KB

p T K z X
0.99 1.01 -1.52718 -1.52718 42
0.90 1.11 -0.83403 -0.83403 151
0.70 1.43 -0.18563 -0.18563 252
0.50 2 0.36651 0.36651 339
0.20 5 1.49994 1.49994 516
0.10 10 2.25037 2.25037 634
0.05 20 2.97020 2.97020 746
0.02 50 3.90194 3.90194 892
0.01 100 4.60015 4.60015 1,001
0.01 200 5.29581 5.29581 1,110
0 500 6.21361 6.21361 1,254

Distrib Gumbel acumulada

1000
CAUDAL (CFS)

500

0
98 90 Probabilidad
50 (%) 10 5 2 1 .5 .2 .1

HIDROLOGIA
 DISTRIBUCION LOG-GUMBEL (Frèchet)

ESTUDIO HIDROLOGICO DE LA SUBCUENCA SAN MIGUEL

Distribucion Log Gumbel

FUNCION DENSIDAD

Q Y=Ln(Q) Orden Pp z Q PARAMETROS:

970 2.98677 1 0.04545 3.06787 970
753 2.87679 2 0.09091 2.35062 753
534 2.72754 3 0.13636 1.92002 534
436 2.63949 4 0.18182 1.60609 436
429 2.63246 5 0.22727 1.35546 429
428 2.63144 6 0.27273 1.14428 428
414 2.61700 7 0.31818 0.95974 414
412 2.61490 8 0.36364 0.79411 412
392 2.59329 9 0.40909 0.64228 392
386 2.58659 10 0.45455 0.50065 386
368 2.56585 11 0.50000 0.36651 368
332 2.52114 12 0.54545 0.23768 332
307 2.48714 13 0.59091 0.11225 307
290 2.46240 14 0.63636 -0.01153 290
287 2.45788 15 0.68182 -0.13552 287
260 2.41497 16 0.72727 -0.26181 260
211 2.32428 17 0.77273 -0.39313 211
186 2.26951 18 0.81818 -0.53342 186
184 2.26482 19 0.86364 -0.68936 184
135 2.13033 20 0.90909 -0.87459 135
92 1.96379 21 0.95455 -1.12851 92
N= 21
Xm= 2.51
S= 0.23
= -LN(-LN(1-p))
M= 2.4070666 lugar estadistico
B= 0.1831456 escala estadistica = M + KB

p T K z X Q
0.99 1.01 -1.52718 -1.52718 2.12737 134
0.90 1.11 -0.83403 -0.83403 2.25432 180
0.70 1.43 -0.18563 -0.18563 2.37307 236
0.50 2 0.36651 0.36651 2.47419 298
0.20 5 1.49994 1.49994 2.68177 481
0.10 10 2.25037 2.25037 2.81921 659
0.05 20 2.97020 2.97020 2.95104 893
0.02 50 3.90194 3.90194 3.12169 1,323
0.01 100 4.60015 4.60015 3.24956 1,776
0.005 200 5.29581 5.29581 3.37697 2,382
0.002 500 6.21361 6.21361 3.54506 3,508

Distrib LOG-GUMBEL acumulada

CAUDAL (CFS)

500

50
98 90 Probabilidad
50 (%) 10 5 2 1 .5 .2 .1

HIDROLOGIA