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BOLSAS PLASTICAS
BOLSAS DE POLIETILENO 11X16X4
AÑO 2017 CANTIDAD (MILLARES) MONTO
ENERO 35 35
FEBRERO 28 28
MARZO 47 47
ABRIL 53 53
MAYO 38 38
JUNIO 42 42
JULIO 29 29
AGOSTO 36 36
SEPTIEMBRE 42 42
OCTUBRE 38 38
NOVIEMBRE 30 30
DICIEMBRE 31 31
Jan-18 0
MOVILES - EMPRESA ROBERTPLASTIC
PESOS 0.1
∑ 386.00
n 9.00
MAD 42.89
∑ 652.67
n 9.00
MAD 72.52
∑ 63.67
n 9.00
MAD 7.07
ASTIC
203.80 43.80
183.00 37.00
196.00 49.00
215.50 17.50
212.70 39.70
199.60 10.40
200.00 70.00
225.40 94.60
268.30 268.30
∑ 362.00
n 8.00
MAD 45.25
411.20 43.80
426.20 87.80
464.60 103.40
514.40 27.40
513.50 148.50
457.10 68.10
419.30 74.30
376.40 54.60
390.20 390.20
∑ 607.90
n 8.00
MAD 75.99
44.40 6.40
43.30 1.30
43.50 14.50
37.10 1.10
35.30 6.70
37.60 0.40
37.90 7.90
35.40 4.40
33.20 33.20
∑ 42.70
n 8.00
MAD 5.34
ALISADO EXPONENCIAL - EMPR
BOLSAS PLASTICAS
BOLSAS DE POLIETILENO 11X16X4
AÑO 2017 CANTIDAD (MILLARES) MONTO
ENERO 35 35
FEBRERO 28 28
MARZO 47 47
ABRIL 53 53
MAYO 38 38
JUNIO 42 42
JULIO 29 29
AGOSTO 36 36
SEPTIEMBRE 42 42
OCTUBRE 38 38
NOVIEMBRE 30 30
DICIEMBRE 31 31
Jan-18 0
PONENCIAL - EMPRESA ROBERTPLASTIC
0.10
PRONOSTICO (F) A-F (A-F)^2 (A-F)/A
258.00 0.0 0.0 0.0
258.00 73.0 5329.0 0.4
250.70 40.7 1656.5 0.2
246.63 51.6 2665.7 0.3
241.47 81.5 6636.9 0.5
233.32 13.3 177.4 0.1
231.99 13.0 169.3 0.1
233.29 35.3 1245.3 0.2
229.76 56.8 3221.8 0.3
224.08 14.1 198.4 0.1
222.68 47.3 2239.6 0.2
227.41 92.6 8573.2 0.3
236.67 236.7 56011.5 0.0
∑ 519.18 32112.99 2.51
n 11.00
MAD 47.20
MSE 2919.36
MAPE 22.85%
0.10
PRONOSTICO (F) A-F (A-F)^2 (A-F)/A
453.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
453.00 41.00 1681.00 0.10
448.90 63.90 4083.21 0.17
442.51 22.51 506.70 0.05
440.26 14.74 217.30 0.03
441.73 72.27 5222.50 0.14
448.96 119.04 14170.57 0.21
460.86 26.14 683.10 0.05
463.48 98.48 9697.80 0.27
453.63 64.63 4177.00 0.17
447.17 102.17 10438.04 0.30
436.95 5.95 35.40 0.01
436.36 436.36 190405.72 0.00
∑ 630.82 50912.63 1.50
n 11.00
MAD 57.35
MSE 4628.42
MAPE 13.65%
0.1
PRONOSTICO (F) A-F (A-F)^2 (A-F)/A
35.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
35.00 7.00 49.00 0.25
34.30 12.70 161.29 0.27
35.57 17.43 303.80 0.33
37.31 0.69 0.47 0.02
37.38 4.62 21.33 0.11
37.84 8.84 78.21 0.30
36.96 0.96 0.92 0.03
36.86 5.14 26.39 0.12
37.38 0.62 0.39 0.02
37.44 7.44 55.34 0.25
36.70 5.70 32.44 0.18
36.13 36.13 1305.07 0.00
∑ 71.13 729.58 1.88
n 11.00
MAD 6.47
MSE 66.33
MAPE 17.08%
C
0.2
PRONOSTICO (F) A-F (A-F)^2 (A-F)/A
258.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
258.0 73.0 5329.0 0.4
243.4 33.4 1115.6 0.2
236.7 41.7 1740.6 0.2
228.4 68.4 4675.3 0.4
214.7 5.3 28.1 0.0
215.8 29.2 854.9 0.1
221.6 23.6 557.4 0.1
216.9 43.9 1926.1 0.3
208.1 1.9 3.6 0.0
208.5 61.5 3783.8 0.2
220.8 99.2 9842.6 0.3
240.6 240.6 57903.8 0.0
∑ 481.14 29856.80 2.26
n 11.00
MAD 43.74
MSE 2714.25
MAPE 20.53%
0.2
PRONOSTICO (F) A-F (A-F)^2 (A-F)/A
453.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
453.00 41.00 1681.00 0.10
444.80 59.80 3576.04 0.16
432.84 12.84 164.87 0.03
430.27 24.73 611.47 0.05
435.22 78.78 6206.67 0.15
450.97 117.03 13695.07 0.21
474.38 12.62 159.28 0.03
476.90 111.90 12522.37 0.31
454.52 65.52 4293.23 0.17
441.42 96.42 9296.47 0.28
422.13 8.87 78.60 0.02
423.91 423.91 179697.68 0.00
∑ 629.51 52285.06 1.500043962
n 11.00
MAD 57.23
MSE 4753.19
MAPE 13.64%
0.2
PRONOSTICO (F) A-F (A-F)^2 (A-F)/A
35.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
35.00 7.00 49.00 0.25
33.60 13.40 179.56 0.29
36.28 16.72 279.56 0.32
39.62 1.62 2.64 0.04
39.30 2.70 7.29 0.06
39.84 10.84 117.49 0.37
37.67 1.67 2.79 0.05
37.34 4.66 21.74 0.11
38.27 0.27 0.07 0.01
38.22 8.22 67.50 0.27
36.57 5.57 31.05 0.18
35.46 35.46 1257.28 0.00
∑ 72.68 758.70 1.95
n 11.00
MAD 6.61
MSE 68.97
MAPE 17.72%
0.30
PRONOSTICO (F) A-F (A-F)^2 (A-F)/A PRONOSTICO (F)
258.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 258.0
258.0 73.0 5329.0 0.4 258.0
236.1 26.1 681.2 0.1 228.8
228.3 33.3 1106.9 0.2 221.3
218.3 58.3 3397.6 0.4 210.8
200.8 19.2 368.6 0.1 190.5
206.6 38.4 1477.5 0.2 202.3
218.1 20.1 403.7 0.1 219.4
212.1 39.1 1526.1 0.2 210.8
200.3 9.7 93.2 0.0 195.7
203.2 66.8 4456.6 0.2 201.4
223.3 96.7 9356.8 0.3 228.8
252.3 252.3 63649.5 0.0 265.3
∑ 480.60 28197.26 2.22 ∑
n 11.00 n
MAD 43.69 MAD
MSE 2563.39 MSE
MAPE 20.19% MAPE
0.30
PRONOSTICO (F) A-F (A-F)^2 (A-F)/A PRONOSTICO (F)
453.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 453.00
453.00 41.00 1681.00 0.10 453.00
440.70 55.70 3102.49 0.14 436.60
423.99 3.99 15.92 0.01 415.96
422.79 32.21 1037.29 0.07 417.58
432.46 81.54 6649.57 0.16 432.55
456.92 111.08 12339.08 0.20 465.13
490.24 3.24 10.52 0.01 506.28
489.27 124.27 15443.06 0.34 498.57
451.99 62.99 3967.62 0.16 445.14
433.09 88.09 7760.26 0.26 422.68
406.66 24.34 592.21 0.06 391.61
413.97 413.97 171367.23 0.00 407.37
∑ 628.45 52599.02 1.49954154 ∑
n 11.00 n
MAD 57.13 MAD
MSE 4781.73 MSE
MAPE 13.63% MAPE
0.30
PRONOSTICO (F) A-F (A-F)^2 (A-F)/A PRONOSTICO (F)
35.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 35.00
35.00 7.00 49.00 0.25 35.00
32.90 14.10 198.81 0.30 32.20
37.13 15.87 251.86 0.30 38.12
41.89 3.89 15.14 0.10 44.07
40.72 1.28 1.63 0.03 41.64
41.11 12.11 146.57 0.42 41.79
37.47 1.47 2.17 0.04 36.67
37.03 4.97 24.68 0.12 36.40
38.52 0.52 0.27 0.01 38.64
38.37 8.37 69.99 0.28 38.39
35.86 4.86 23.58 0.16 35.03
34.40 34.40 1183.31 0.00 33.42
∑ 74.43 783.70 2.01 ∑
n 11.00 n
MAD 6.77 MAD
MSE 71.25 MSE
MAPE 18.26% MAPE
ALFAS
0.4 0.50
A-F (A-F)^2 (A-F)/A PRONOSTICO (F) A-F
0.0 0.0 0.0 258.0 0.0
73.0 5329.0 0.4 258.0 73.0
18.8 353.4 0.1 221.5 11.5
26.3 690.6 0.1 215.8 20.8
50.8 2577.4 0.3 205.4 45.4
29.5 872.6 0.1 182.7 37.3
42.7 1825.3 0.2 201.3 43.7
21.4 456.5 0.1 223.2 25.2
37.8 1430.3 0.2 210.6 37.6
14.3 204.7 0.1 191.8 18.2
68.6 4703.9 0.3 200.9 69.1
91.2 8308.5 0.3 235.4 84.6
265.3 70389.1 0.0 277.7 277.7
474.34 26752.28 2.18 ∑ 466.21
11 n 11
43.12 MAD 42.38
2432.03 MSE 2322.81
19.80% MAPE 19.44%
ALFAS
0.4 0.50
A-F (A-F)^2 (A-F)/A PRONOSTICO (F) A-F
0.00 0.00 0.00 453.00 0.00
41.00 1681.00 0.10 453.00 41.00
51.60 2662.56 0.13 432.50 47.50
4.04 16.32 0.01 408.75 11.25
37.42 1400.56 0.08 414.38 40.63
81.45 6634.82 0.16 434.69 79.31
102.87 10582.78 0.18 474.34 93.66
19.28 371.58 0.04 521.17 34.17
133.57 17839.84 0.37 504.09 139.09
56.14 3151.64 0.14 434.54 45.54
77.68 6034.76 0.23 411.77 66.77
39.39 1551.55 0.09 378.39 52.61
407.37 165947.17 0.00 404.69 404.69
644.45 51927.410312368 1.53 ∑ 651.53
11.00 n 11.00
58.59 MAD 59.23
4720.67 MSE 4599.06
13.92% MAPE 14.02%
ALFAS
0.4 0.50
A-F (A-F)^2 (A-F)/A PRONOSTICO (F) A-F
0.00 0.00 0.00 35.00 0.00
7.00 49.00 0.25 35.00 7.00
14.80 219.04 0.31 31.50 15.50
14.88 221.41 0.28 39.25 13.75
6.07 36.87 0.16 46.13 8.13
0.36 0.13 0.01 42.06 0.06
12.79 163.48 0.44 42.03 13.03
0.67 0.45 0.02 35.52 0.48
5.60 31.33 0.13 35.76 6.24
0.64 0.41 0.02 38.88 0.88
8.39 70.31 0.28 38.44 8.44
4.03 16.25 0.13 34.22 3.22
33.42 1116.80 0.00 32.61 32.61
75.22 808.68 2.03 ∑ 76.73
11.00 n 11.00
6.84 MAD 6.98
73.52 MSE 75.97
18.48% MAPE 18.86%
ALFAS
0.50 0.6
(A-F)^2 (A-F)/A PRONOSTICO (F) A-F (A-F)^2
0.0 0.0 258.0 0.0 0.0
5329.0 0.4 258.0 73.0 5329.0
132.3 0.1 214.2 4.2 17.6
430.6 0.1 211.7 16.7 278.2
2058.9 0.3 201.7 41.7 1736.6
1392.2 0.2 176.7 43.3 1877.6
1905.9 0.2 202.7 42.3 1792.0
633.6 0.1 228.1 30.1 904.0
1412.7 0.2 210.0 37.0 1371.0
331.5 0.1 187.8 22.2 492.4
4775.3 0.3 201.1 68.9 4743.9
7149.0 0.3 242.4 77.6 6014.0
77130.7 0.0 289.0 289.0 83509.4
25550.91 2.14 ∑ 456.92 24556.33
11 n 11
42.38 MAD 41.54
2322.81 MSE 2232.39
19.44% MAPE 19.08%
ALFAS
0.50 0.6
(A-F)^2 (A-F)/A PRONOSTICO (F) A-F (A-F)^2
0.00 0.00 453.00 0.00 0.00
1681.00 0.10 453.00 41.00 1681.00
2256.25 0.12 428.40 43.40 1883.56
126.56 0.03 402.36 17.64 311.17
1650.39 0.09 412.94 42.06 1768.71
6290.47 0.15 438.18 75.82 5749.04
8771.49 0.16 483.67 84.33 7111.37
1167.72 0.07 534.27 47.27 2234.30
19344.90 0.38 505.91 140.91 19854.89
2074.16 0.12 421.36 32.36 1047.36
4458.43 0.19 401.95 56.95 3242.75
2768.26 0.12 367.78 63.22 3997.01
163776.32 0.00 405.71 405.71 164601.60
50589.637249947 1.54 ∑ 644.9532 48881.16
11.00 n 11.00
59.23 MAD 58.63
4599.06 MSE 4443.74
14.02% MAPE 13.82%
ALFAS
0.50 0.6
(A-F)^2 (A-F)/A PRONOSTICO (F) A-F (A-F)^2
0.00 0.00 35.00 0.00 0.00
49.00 0.25 35.00 7.00 49.00
240.25 0.33 30.80 16.20 262.44
189.06 0.26 40.52 12.48 155.75
66.02 0.21 48.01 10.01 100.16
0.00 0.00 42.00 0.00 0.00
169.81 0.45 42.00 13.00 169.03
0.23 0.01 34.20 1.80 3.24
38.96 0.15 35.28 6.72 45.16
0.77 0.02 39.31 1.31 1.72
71.22 0.28 38.52 8.52 72.67
10.37 0.10 33.41 2.41 5.81
1063.40 0.00 31.96 31.96 1021.70
835.71 2.07 ∑ 79.46 864.98
11.00 n 11.00
6.98 MAD 7.22
75.97 MSE 78.63
18.86% MAPE 19.53%
0.70
(A-F)/A PRONOSTICO (F) A-F (A-F)^2
0.0 258.0 0.0 0.0
0.4 258.0 73.0 5329.0
0.0 206.9 3.1 9.6
0.1 209.1 14.1 198.0
0.3 199.2 39.2 1538.3
0.2 171.8 48.2 2326.5
0.2 205.5 39.5 1557.9
0.2 233.2 35.2 1236.2
0.2 208.5 35.5 1263.6
0.1 183.7 26.3 693.6
0.3 202.1 67.9 4610.5
0.2 249.6 70.4 4952.0
0.0 298.9 298.9 89334.6
2.10 ∑ 452.41 23715.07
11 n 11
41.54 MAD 41.13
232.39 MSE 2155.92
9.08% MAPE 18.97%
0.70
(A-F)/A PRONOSTICO (F) A-F (A-F)^2
0.00 453.00 0.00 0.00
0.10 453.00 41.00 1681.00
0.11 424.30 39.30 1544.49
0.04 396.79 23.21 538.70
0.09 413.04 41.96 1760.89
0.15 442.41 71.59 5124.97
0.15 492.52 75.48 5696.73
0.10 545.36 58.36 3405.54
0.39 504.51 139.51 19462.23
0.08 406.85 17.85 318.70
0.17 394.36 49.36 2435.98
0.15 359.81 71.19 5068.49
0.00 409.64 409.64 167806.57
1.52 ∑ 628.80375 47037.72
11.00 n 11.00
58.63 MAD 57.16
443.74 MSE 4276.16
3.82% MAPE 13.43%
0.70
(A-F)/A PRONOSTICO (F) A-F (A-F)^2
0.00 35.00 0.00 0.00
0.25 35.00 7.00 49.00
0.34 30.10 16.90 285.61
0.24 41.93 11.07 122.54
0.26 49.68 11.68 136.40
0.00 41.50 0.50 0.25
0.45 41.85 12.85 165.15
0.05 32.86 3.14 9.89
0.16 35.06 6.94 48.21
0.03 39.92 1.92 3.67
0.28 38.58 8.58 73.53
0.08 32.57 1.57 2.47
0.00 31.47 31.47 990.47
2.15 ∑ 82.15 896.73
11.00 n 11.00
7.22 MAD 7.47
78.63 MSE 81.52
9.53% MAPE 20.19%
0.8
(A-F)/A PRONOSTICO (F) A-F (A-F)^2 (A-F)/A
0.0 258.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.4 258.0 73.0 5329.0 0.4
0.0 199.6 10.4 108.2 0.0
0.1 207.9 12.9 166.9 0.1
0.2 197.6 37.6 1412.6 0.2
0.2 167.5 52.5 2754.5 0.2
0.2 209.5 35.5 1260.0 0.1
0.2 237.9 39.9 1592.1 0.2
0.2 206.0 33.0 1087.7 0.2
0.1 179.6 30.4 924.4 0.1
0.3 203.9 66.1 4366.7 0.2
0.2 256.8 63.2 3996.3 0.2
0.0 307.4 307.4 94468.2 0.0
2.09 ∑ 454.47 22998.25 2.11
1 n 11
13 MAD 41.32
5.92 MSE 2090.75
97% MAPE 19.16%
0.8
(A-F)/A PRONOSTICO (F) A-F (A-F)^2 (A-F)/A
0.00 453.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.10 453.00 41.00 1681.00 0.10
0.10 420.20 35.20 1239.04 0.09
0.06 392.04 27.96 781.76 0.07
0.09 414.41 40.59 1647.71 0.09
0.14 446.88 67.12 4504.88 0.13
0.13 500.58 67.42 4545.95 0.12
0.12 554.52 67.52 4558.31 0.14
0.38 500.50 135.50 18361.08 0.37
0.05 392.10 3.10 9.61 0.01
0.14 389.62 44.62 1990.96 0.13
0.17 353.92 77.08 5940.71 0.18
0.00 415.58 415.58 172710.73 0.00
1.48 ∑ 607.11 45261.01 1.42
00 n 11.00
16 MAD 55.19
6.16 MSE 4114.64
43% MAPE 12.93%
0.8
(A-F)/A PRONOSTICO (F) A-F (A-F)^2 (A-F)/A
0.00 35.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.25 35.00 7.00 49.00 0.25
0.36 29.40 17.60 309.76 0.37
0.21 43.48 9.52 90.63 0.18
0.31 51.10 13.10 171.51 0.34
0.01 40.62 1.38 1.91 0.03
0.44 41.72 12.72 161.90 0.44
0.09 31.54 4.46 19.85 0.12
0.17 35.11 6.89 47.49 0.16
0.05 40.62 2.62 6.87 0.07
0.29 38.52 8.52 72.66 0.28
0.05 31.70 0.70 0.50 0.02
0.00 31.14 31.14 969.76 0.00
2.22 ∑ 84.52 932.07 2.28
00 n 11.00
47 MAD 7.68
52 MSE 84.73
19% MAPE 20.76%
0.90
PRONOSTICO (F) A-F (A-F)^2 (A-F)/A
258.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
258.0 73.0 5329.0 0.4
192.3 17.7 313.3 0.1
208.2 13.2 175.0 0.1
196.3 36.3 1319.4 0.2
163.6 56.4 3177.3 0.3
214.4 30.6 938.6 0.1
241.9 43.9 1930.4 0.2
202.4 29.4 864.0 0.2
175.9 34.1 1160.1 0.2
206.6 63.4 4020.3 0.2
263.7 56.3 3174.3 0.2
314.4 314.4 98825.9 0.0
∑ 454.39473211 22401.7184209406 2.1199112582
n 11
MAD 41.31
MSE 2036.52
MAPE 19.27%
0.90
PRONOSTICO (F) A-F (A-F)^2 (A-F)/A
453.00 0 0 0
453.00 41 1681 0.0995145631
416.10 31.1 967.21 0.0807792208
388.11 31.89 1016.9721 0.0759285714
416.81 38.189 1458.399721 0.0839318681
451.18 62.8189 3946.21419721 0.1222157588
507.72 60.28189 3633.9062619721 0.106130088
561.97 74.971811 5620.7724446197 0.1539462238
494.50 129.4971811 16769.5199128462 0.3547867975
377.95 11.05028189 122.1087298485 0.0284068943
387.89 42.894971811 1839.9786066665 0.1243332516
349.29 81.710502819 6676.6062709175 0.1895835332
422.83 422.82894972 178784.32071972 0
∑ 605.40 43732.69 1.4195567708
n 11.00
MAD 55.04
MSE 3975.70
MAPE 12.91%
0.90
PRONOSTICO (F) A-F (A-F)^2 (A-F)/A
35.00 0 0 0
35.00 7 49 0.25
28.70 18.3 334.89 0.3893617021
45.17 7.83 61.3089 0.1477358491
52.22 14.217 202.123089 0.3741315789
39.42 2.5783 6.64763089 0.0613880952
41.74 12.74217 162.3628963089 0.4393851724
30.27 5.725783 32.7845909631 0.1590495278
35.43 6.5725783 43.1987855096 0.1564899595
41.34 3.34274217 11.1739252151 0.0879668992
38.33 8.334274217 69.4601267242 0.2778091406
30.83 0.1665725783 0.0277464238 0.005373309
30.98 30.983342742 959.9675274788 0
∑ 86.81 972.98 2.35
n 11.00
MAD 7.89
MSE 88.45
MAPE 21.35%
ALISADO CON TENDENCIA - EMPRESA
BOLSAS PLASTICAS
BOLSAS DE POLIETILENO 11X16X4
AÑO 2017 CANTIDAD (MILLARES) MONTO
ENERO 35 35
FEBRERO 28 28
MARZO 47 47
ABRIL 53 53
MAYO 38 38
JUNIO 42 42
JULIO 29 29
AGOSTO 36 36
SEPTIEMBRE 42 42
OCTUBRE 38 38
NOVIEMBRE 30 30
DICIEMBRE 31 31
Jan-18 0.00
ENDENCIA - EMPRESA ROBERTPLASTIC
ALFA 0.7
BETA 0.4
PRONOSTICO ALISADO TENDENCIA ALISASO PRONOSTICO
258.00 38.70 296.70
269.61 27.86 297.47
218.74 -3.63 215.11
211.53 -5.06 206.47
198.44 -8.27 190.17
169.05 -16.72 152.33
199.70 2.23 201.93
232.08 14.29 246.37
212.51 0.75 213.26
185.08 -10.53 174.55
199.37 -0.60 198.76
248.63 19.35 267.98
304.39 33.91 338.31
ALFA 0.7
BETA 0.4
PRONOSTICO ALISADO TENDENCIA ALISASO PRONOSTICO
453.00 67.95 520.95
473.39 48.92 522.31
445.09 18.04 463.13
408.44 -3.84 404.60
415.38 0.47 415.85
443.26 11.43 454.69
496.21 28.04 524.25
554.87 40.29 595.17
519.45 10.01 529.45
414.34 -36.04 378.29
385.79 -33.04 352.74
347.32 -35.21 312.11
395.33 -1.92 393.41
ALFA 0.7
BETA 0.4
PRONOSTICO ALISADO TENDENCIA ALISASO PRONOSTICO
35.00 5.25 40.25
36.58 3.78 40.36
31.71 0.32 32.03
42.51 4.51 47.02
51.21 6.19 57.39
43.82 0.76 44.57
42.77 0.04 42.81
33.14 -3.83 29.31
33.99 -1.96 32.04
39.01 0.83 39.84
38.55 0.32 38.87
32.66 -2.17 30.49
30.85 -2.03 28.82
IC
REGRESION LINEAL - EMPRESA ROBERT
BOLSAS PLASTICAS
BOLSAS DE POLIETILENO 11X16X4
AÑO 2017 CANTIDAD (MILLARES) PERIODO (X) MONTO (Y) X^2
ENERO 35 1 35 1
FEBRERO 28 2 28 4
MARZO 47 3 47 9
ABRIL 53 4 53 16
MAYO 38 5 38 25
JUNIO 42 6 42 36
JULIO 29 7 29 49
AGOSTO 36 8 36 64
SEPTIEMBRE 42 9 42 81
OCTUBRE 38 10 38 100
NOVIEMBRE 30 11 30 121
DICIEMBRE 31 12 31 144
∑ 78 449 650
Jan-18 33.71
A ROBERTPLASTIC
X*Y
258 MESES VS MONTO
370 n= 12.00 350
630
300
780 Y 220.33 258
245
250
800 X 6.50 210 220
f(x) = 5.1608391608x + 186.7878787879 198 210
195
185
1320 b 5.16 200
160
173
1584 100
1557 Y= a+bx
50
2100 Y= 253.88
0
2970 0 2 4 6 8 10
3840
17924
X*Y
453
824 n= 12.00
MESES VS MONTO
600 568
1155 514
487
1680 Y 435.33 500 453 455
412 420
2275 X 6.50 385
f(x) = - 3.2937062937x + 456.7424242424
400 365
300
200
600 568
514
487
500 453 455
412 420
385
f(x) = - 3.2937062937x + 456.7424242424
400 365
3084 b -3.29
3976 a 456.74 300
3896 200
3285 Y= a+bx
100
3890 Y= 413.92
3795 0
0 2 4 6 8
5172
33485
X*Y
35 MESES VS MONTO
56 n= 12.00
60
141 53
47
212 Y 37.42 50
42 42
190 X 6.50 40
38
36
3
35 f(x) = - 0.5699300699x + 41.1212121212
252 b -0.57 29
28
30
203 a 41.12
288 20
378 Y= a+bx
10
380 Y= 33.71
330 0
0 2 4 6 8 1
372
2837
GRAFICO
MESES VS MONTO
320
270
245
220
1608x + 186.7878787879 198 210
195
173
160
4 6 8 10 12 14
GRAFICO
MESES VS MONTO
568
514
487
455
420 431
385
2937062937x + 456.7424242424 389
365
345
568
514
487
455
420 431
385
2937062937x + 456.7424242424 389
365
345
4 6 8 10 12 14
GRAFICO
MESES VS MONTO
53
42 42
38 38
36
9300699x + 41.1212121212
30 31
29
4 6 8 10 12 14
MODELO ESTACIONAL MULTIPLICATIVO - EMPRESA
DEMANDA
2015 2016 2017 PROMEDIO
2015-2017
ENERO 264.00 227.00 258.00 249.67
FEBRERO 208.00 284.00 185.00 225.67
MARZO 298.00 174.00 210.00 227.33
ABRIL 287.00 270.00 195.00 250.67
MAYO 167.00 164.00 160.00 163.67
JUNIO 192.00 200.00 220.00 196.00
JULIO 194.00 244.00 245.00 227.67
AGOSTO 211.00 248.00 198.00 219.00
SEPTIEMBRE 259.00 208.00 173.00 213.33
OCTUBRE 312.00 239.00 210.00 253.67
NOVIEMBRE 290.00 165.00 270.00 241.67
DICIEMBRE 252.00 297.00 320.00 289.67
PROMEDIO TOTAL DE DEMANDA ANUAL = 2700.67
DEMANDA
2015 2016 2017 PROMEDIO
2015-2017
ENERO 454 494 453 467.00
FEBRERO 444 508 412 454.67
MARZO 396 439 385 406.67
ABRIL 403 504 420 442.33
MAYO 481 374 455 436.67
JUNIO 435 397 514 467.67
JULIO 490 397 568 485.00
AGOSTO 396 419 487 434.00
SEPTIEMBRE 468 485 365 439.33
OCTUBRE 431 408 389 409.33
NOVIEMBRE 473 508 345 442.00
DICIEMBRE 411 414 431 418.67
PROMEDIO TOTAL DE DEMANDA ANUAL = 5071.67
DEMANDA
2015 2016 2017 PROMEDIO
2015-2017
ENERO 50 36 35 40.33
FEBRERO 49 51 28 42.67
MARZO 28 51 47 42.00
ABRIL 46 35 53 44.67
MAYO 41 33 38 37.33
JUNIO 31 53 42 37.33
JULIO 34 42 29 35.00
AGOSTO 39 33 36 36.00
SEPTIEMBRE 49 48 42 46.33
OCTUBRE 43 40 38 40.33
NOVIEMBRE 39 41 30 36.67
DICIEMBRE 41 38 31 36.67
PROMEDIO TOTAL DE DEMANDA ANUAL = 483.33
IVO - EMPRESA ROBERTPLASTIC
MANDA ESPERADA (2018 ) = 2800
DEMANDA INDICE
PROMEDIO DEMANDA 2018
ESTACIONAL
MENSUAL
225.06 1.11 259
225.06 1.00 179
225.06 1.01 243
225.06 1.11 260
225.06 0.73 170
225.06 0.87 203
225.06 1.01 236
225.06 0.97 227
225.06 0.95 221
225.06 1.13 263
225.06 1.07 251
225.06 1.29 300
DEMANDA INDICE
PROMEDIO DEMANDA 2018
ESTACIONAL
MENSUAL
422.64 1.10 478.82
422.64 1.08 466.17
422.64 0.96 416.96
422.64 1.05 453.53
422.64 1.03 447.72
422.64 1.11 479.50
422.64 1.15 497.27
422.64 1.03 444.98
422.64 1.04 450.45
422.64 0.97 419.69
422.64 1.05 453.18
422.64 0.99 429.26
DEMANDA INDICE
PROMEDIO DEMANDA 2018
ESTACIONAL
MENSUAL
40.28 1.00 42
40.28 1.06 44
40.28 1.04 43
40.28 1.11 46
40.28 0.93 39
40.28 0.93 39
40.28 0.87 36
40.28 0.89 37
40.28 1.15 48
40.28 1.00 42
40.28 0.91 38
40.28 0.91 38
trim pronostico actual error
1 100 90 -10
2 100 95 -5
3 100 115 15
4 100 100 0
5 100 125 25
6 100 140 40
ANUAL
ERROR ABS ERROR ACUM DAM SR LSI SR
0 0 0 0 -151 2
73 73 37 12 -151 2
3 76 25 -3 -151 2
14 90 23 -4 -151 2
39 129 26 -5 -151 2
48 178 30 -3 -151 2
39 217 31 -1 -151 2
35 252 32 -2 -151 2
36 288 32 -3 -151 2
26 314 31 -3 -151 2
68 382 35 0 -151 2
70 452 38 2 -151 2
452
12
37.7
MENSUAL
ERROR ABS ERROR ACUM DAM SR LSI SR
0 0 0 0 -151 0
73 73 37 12 -151 12
3 76 25 -3 -151 -3
14 90 23 -4 -151 -4
39 129 26 -5 -151 -5
48 178 30 -3 -151 -3
39 217 31 -1 -151 -1
35 252 32 -2 -151 -2
36 288 32 -3 -151 -3
26 314 31 -3 -151 -3
68 382 35 0 -151 0
70 452 38 2 -151 2
452
12
37.7
GRAFICO
ANUAL
LSC
LSI -LSC
151
200
151
150
151
151 100
151 50
151 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
151 -50
151 -100
151 -150
151 -200
151
151
GRAFICO
MENSUAL
LSC
151 LSI - LSC
151 148
151
98
151
151 48
151
151 -2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
151
-52
151
151 -102
151
-152
-52
-102
151 -152
10 11 12
10 11 12