PRONSTICO BASADO EN PROMEDIO SIMPLE

Periodo Cantidades reales

Periodo Cantidades reales Pronstico
1 1 1 1
2 3 2.00 2 3
3 2 2.00 3 2
4 5 2.75 4 5
5 4 3.00 5 4
6 7 3.67 6 7
7 6 4.00 7 6
8 9 4.63 8 9
9 8 5.00 9 8
10 11 5.60 10 11
11 10 6.00 11 10
12 13 6.58 12 13
13 12 7.00 13 12
14 15 7.57 14 15
15 14 8.00 15 14
16 17 8.56 16 17
17 16 9.00 17 16
18 19 9.56 18 19
19 18 10.00 19 18
20 21 10.55 20 21

Promedio Simple

25

20

15
Cantidades reales
Pronstico

10

5
10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
 PRONSTICO BASADO EN PROMEDIO MOVIL

Pronstico Pronstico Pronstico Pronstico Pronstico Pronstico Pronstico Pronstico

ltimos 2 ltimos 3 ltimos 4 ltimos 5 ltimos 6 ltimos 7 ltimos 8 ltimos 9
periodos periodos periodos periodos periodos periodos periodos periodos

2
3 2
4 3 3
5 4 4 3
6 5 5 4.2 4
7 6 6 4.8 5 4
8 7 7 6.2 6 5 5
9 8 8 6.8 7 6 6 5
10 9 9 8.2 8 7 7 6
11 10 10 8.8 9 8 8 7
12 11 11 10.2 10 9 9 8
13 12 12 10.8 11 10 10 9
14 13 13 12.2 12 11 11 10
15 14 14 12.8 13 12 12 11
16 15 15 14.2 14 13 13 12
17 16 16 14.8 15 14 14 13
18 17 17 16.2 16 15 15 14
19 18 18 16.8 17 16 16 15
20 19 19 18.2 18 17 17 16

Promedio Mvil
25

20

Cantidades reales
Pronstico ltimos 2 periodos
Pronstico ltimos 3 periodos
15 Pronstico ltimos 4 periodos
ades reales Pronstico ltimos 5 periodos
tico Pronstico ltimos 6 periodos
Pronstico ltimos 7 periodos
Pronstico ltimos 8 periodos
10 Pronstico ltimos 9 periodos
Pronstico ltimos 10 periodos

5
 Pronstico ltimos 7 periodos
Pronstico ltimos 8 periodos
10 Pronstico ltimos 9 periodos
Pronstico ltimos 10 periodos

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
 Pronstico
ltimos 10
periodos

5.6
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
14.5
15.5

dades reales
stico ltimos 2 periodos
stico ltimos 3 periodos
stico ltimos 4 periodos
stico ltimos 5 periodos
stico ltimos 6 periodos
stico ltimos 7 periodos
stico ltimos 8 periodos
stico ltimos 9 periodos
stico ltimos 10 periodos
stico ltimos 7 periodos
stico ltimos 8 periodos
stico ltimos 9 periodos
stico ltimos 10 periodos
 PRONSTICO BASADO EN
Ponderacin Pronstico Ponderacin Pronstico Ponderacin Pronstico Ponderacin
Periodo Cantidades ltimos 2 ltimos 2 ltimos 3 ltimos 3 ltimos 4 ltimos 4 ltimos 5
reales periodos periodos periodos periodos periodos periodos periodos
1 12 27.00%
2 13 24.00% 6
3 15 55.00% 11 27.00% 4
4 14 86.00% 20 24.00% 7 55.00% 8
5 16 68.00% 23 55.00% 16 86.00% 21
6 17 97.00% 27 86.00% 27 68.00% 33
7 14 18.00% 19 68.00% 33 97.00% 47
8 21 78.00% 19 97.00% 45 18.00% 43
9 19 35.00% 23 18.00% 33 78.00% 44
10 20 85.00% 24 78.00% 39 35.00% 39
11 23 87.00% 37 35.00% 27 85.00% 45
12 19 54.00% 30 85.00% 40 87.00% 58
13 21 89.00% 29 87.00% 42 54.00% 54
14 25 35.00% 27 54.00% 48 89.00% 70
15 23 78.00% 27 89.00% 52 35.00% 58
16 19 23.00% 22 35.00% 41 78.00% 56
17 24 67.00% 20 78.00% 46 23.00% 51
18 27 34.00% 25 23.00% 32 67.00% 46
19 25 103.00% 35 67.00% 42 34.00% 47
20 28 102.00% 54 34.00% 32 103.00% 61

80
Promedio M

70

60

50

40

30

20

10
20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1
PRONSTICO BASADO EN PROMEDIO MVIL
Pronstico Ponderacin Pronstico Ponderacin Pronstico Ponderacin Pronstico Ponderacin Pronstico
ltimos 5 ltimos 6 ltimos 6 ltimos 7 ltimos 7 ltimos 8 ltimos 8 ltimos 9 ltimos 9
periodos periodos periodos periodos periodos periodos periodos periodos periodos

0
0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0

Promedio Mvil

Cantidades reales
Pronstico ltimos 2 periodos
Pronstico ltimos 3 periodos
Pronstico ltimos 4 periodos
Pronstico ltimos 5 periodos
Pronstico ltimos 6 periodos
Pronstico ltimos 7 periodos
Pronstico ltimos 8 periodos
Pronstico ltimos 9 periodos
Pronstico ltimos 10 periodos
 Pronstico ltimos 10 periodos

0 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Ponderacin Pronstico
ltimos 10 ltimos 10
periodos periodos

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
 SUAVIZACIN EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE Y EV

Total de a= 0.4 Desviacin Desviacin

periodos Periodo Cantidades reales Pronstico 1 Pronstico 2 Pronstico 3 Pronstico 1 Pronstico 2
1 1 12 12 0 12
1 2 13 12 0 0 1 13
1 3 15 12 0 0 3 15
1 4 14 13 0 0 1 14
1 5 16 13 0 0 3 16
1 6 17 14 0 0 3 17
1 7 14 15 0 0 1 14
1 8 21 15 0 0 6 21
1 9 19 17 0 0 2 19
1 10 20 18 0 0 2 20
1 11 23 19 0 0 4 23
1 12 19 21 0 0 2 19
1 13 21 20 0 0 1 21
1 14 25 20 0 0 5 25
1 15 23 22 0 0 1 23
1 16 19 22 0 0 3 19
1 17 24 21 0 0 3 24
1 18 27 22 0 0 5 27
1 19 25 24 0 0 1 25
1 20 28 24 0 0 4 28
20 TOTAL 51 395

Pronstico 1 Pronstico 2 Pronstico 3 Clculo de

Desviacin media Nmero de datos
2.55 19.75 19.75
absoluta a=
Error cuadrtico 9.05 411.85 411.85

Error porcentual 12.48% 100.00% 100.00%

Pronstico 1 Pron
30 30

25 25

20 20
Cantidades reales
Pronstico 1
15 15

10 10

5 5
20 20
Cantidades reales
Pronstico 1
15 15

10 10

5 5

0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
PONENCIAL SIMPLE Y EVALUACIN DE PRONSTICOS

Desviacin Error cuadrtico Error cuadrtico Error cuadrtico Error porcentual Error porcentual
Pronstico 3 Pronstico 1 Pronstico 2 Pronstico 3 Pronstico 1 Pronstico 2
12 0 144 144 0.00% 100.00%
13 1 169 169 7.69% 100.00%
15 9 225 225 20.00% 100.00%
14 1 196 196 7.14% 100.00%
16 9 256 256 18.75% 100.00%
17 9 289 289 17.65% 100.00%
14 1 196 196 7.14% 100.00%
21 36 441 441 28.57% 100.00%
19 4 361 361 10.53% 100.00%
20 4 400 400 10.00% 100.00%
23 16 529 529 17.39% 100.00%
19 4 361 361 10.53% 100.00%
21 1 441 441 4.76% 100.00%
25 25 625 625 20.00% 100.00%
23 1 529 529 4.35% 100.00%
19 9 361 361 15.79% 100.00%
24 9 576 576 12.50% 100.00%
27 25 729 729 18.52% 100.00%
25 1 625 625 4.00% 100.00%
28 16 784 784 14.29% 100.00%
395 181 8237 8237 249.59% 2000.00%

Clculo de alfa
Nmero de datos 20
a= 0.10

Pronstico 2 Pronstico 3
30

25

20
Cantidades reales Cantid
Pronstico 2 Pron
15

10

5
 20
Cantidades reales Cantid
Pronstico 2 Pron
15

10

0
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
 Error porcentual
Pronstico 3
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
2000.00%

stico 3

Cantidades reales
Pronstico 3
 Cantidades reales
Pronstico 3

4 15 16 17 18 19 20
 SUAVIZACIN EXPONENCIAL DOBLE
b= 0.76

a= 0.8 Suavizacin Desviacin

Total de Tendencia
Periodo exponencial del del
periodos Periodo
Cantidades reales Pronstico simple pronstico
1 1 12 0.000
1 2 13 16.896 9.600 7.296 3.896
1 3 13 18.706 13.779 4.927 5.706
1 4 14 15.599 14.141 1.458 1.599
1 5 12 14.805 14.320 0.486 2.805
1 6 15 11.341 12.561 -1.220 3.659
1 7 16 15.273 14.268 1.005 0.727
1 8 13 17.301 15.855 1.447 4.301
1 9 16 12.692 13.860 -1.168 3.308
0 10 16.181 15.338 0.843 16.181
0 11 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
0 12 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
0 13 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
0 14 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
0 15 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
0 16 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
0 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
0 18 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
0 19 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
0 20 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
9 Total 42

Pronstico 1

Desviacin media 4.69

Error cuadrtico 40.37

Error porcentual 21.26%

Datos Reales / Pronostico

20

18

16

14

12
C
P
10
16

14

12
C
P
10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
 Error Error
cuadrtico porcentual

0.000 0.00%
15.179 29.97%
32.563 43.90%
2.557 11.42%
7.870 23.38%
13.389 24.39%
0.529 4.55%
18.501 33.09%
10.944 20.68%
261.834 0.00%
0.000 0.00%
0.000 0.00%
0.000 0.00%
0.000 0.00%
0.000 0.00%
0.000 0.00%
0.000 0.00%
0.000 0.00%
0.000 0.00%
0.000 0.00%
363 191.37%

Clculo de alfa
Nmero de datos 9
a= 0.20

Cantidades reales
Pronstico
 Cantidades reales
Pronstico

17 18 19 20
 REGRESIN LINEAL

Total de Cantidades (Cantidades reales * a

Periodo
periodos reales Periodo) Pronstico 1.1632
1 1 1 1 2.2286 b
1 2 2 4 3.2940 1.0654
1 3 3 9 4.3594 Periodo a calcular
1 4 4 16 5.4248 6
1 5 6 30 6.4902 Pronstico del period
1 6 8 48 7.5556
7.5556
1 7 9 63 8.6211
1 8 12 96 9.6865 30
1 9 14 126 10.7519
1 10 13 130 11.8173 25
1 11 16 176 12.8827
1 12 18 216 13.9481 20
1 13 14 182 15.0135
1 14 15 210 16.0789 15
1 15 12 180 17.1444
1 16 17 272 18.2098 10
1 17 19 323 19.2752
1 18 21 378 20.3406
5
1 19 18 342 21.4060
1 20 25 500 22.4714
0
20 210 247 3,302
L

a
1.1632
b
1.0654
Periodo a calcular
6
Pronstico del periodo

7.5556
 EVALUACIN DE PRONSTICOS
Total de Cantidades Desviacin Desviacin
periodos Periodo reales Pronstico 1 Pronstico 2 Pronstico 3 Pronstico 1 Pronstico 2
1 1 12 0 0
1 2 13 6 7 0
1 3 15 11 4 0
1 4 14 20 6 0
1 5 16 23 7 0
1 6 17 27 10 0
1 7 14 19 5 0
1 8 21 19 2 0
1 9 19 23 4 0
1 10 20 24 4 0
1 11 23 37 14 0
1 12 19 30 11 0
1 13 21 29 8 0
1 14 25 27 2 0
1 15 23 27 4 0
1 16 19 22 3 0
1 17 24 20 4 0
1 18 27 25 2 0
1 19 25 35 10 0
1 20 28 54 26 0
20 TOTAL 133 0
Pronstico 1 Pronstico 2 Pronstico 3
Desviacin 6.65 0 0
media
Error 75.85 0 0
cuadrtico
Error
33.36% 0.00% 0.00%
porcentual
ACIN DE PRONSTICOS
Desviacin Error Error Error Error Error Error
Pronstico 3 cuadrtico 1 cuadrtico 2 cuadrtico 3 porcentual 1 porcentual 2 porcentual 3
0 0 0 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0 49 0 0 53.85% 0.00% 0.00%
0 16 0 0 26.67% 0.00% 0.00%
0 36 0 0 42.86% 0.00% 0.00%
0 49 0 0 43.75% 0.00% 0.00%
0 100 0 0 58.82% 0.00% 0.00%
0 25 0 0 35.71% 0.00% 0.00%
0 4 0 0 9.52% 0.00% 0.00%
0 16 0 0 21.05% 0.00% 0.00%
0 16 0 0 20.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0 196 0 0 60.87% 0.00% 0.00%
0 121 0 0 57.89% 0.00% 0.00%
0 64 0 0 38.10% 0.00% 0.00%
0 4 0 0 8.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0 16 0 0 17.39% 0.00% 0.00%
0 9 0 0 15.79% 0.00% 0.00%
0 16 0 0 16.67% 0.00% 0.00%
0 4 0 0 7.41% 0.00% 0.00%
0 100 0 0 40.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0 676 0 0 92.86% 0.00% 0.00%
0 1517 0 0 667.21% 0.00% 0.00%
 Datos Histricos
Ao Ao Ao Ao Ao
1 2 3 4 5
Periodo Ventas Ventas Ventas Ventas Ventas
1 26,000 44,000 58,000 74,666 90,666
2 35,500 51,000 65,000 65,000 65,000
3 35,000 46,000 60,000 55,334 76,600
4 34,700 49,000 69,000 45,668 88,200
5 38,500 50,000 70,000 36,002 99,800
6 40,850 51,000 72,800 56,336 111,400
7 43,200 60,670 76,670 76,670 123,000
8 45,550 53,000 78,400 97,004 134,600
9 47,900 54,000 81,200 117,338 146,200
10 45,250 80,000 84,000 37,672 157,800
11 52,600 56,000 86,800 158,006 169,400
12 54,950 57,000 89,600 78,340 181,000
Total Ventas/Ao 500,000 651,670 891,470 898,036 1,443,666
Promedio de Ventas 41,667 54,306 74,289 74,836 120,306

TOTAL DE VENTAS/AO PREVISTAS 1,443,666

1
60,000 90,000
80,000
50,000
70,000
40,000 60,000
1 50,000
30,000
40,000
20,000 30,000
20,000
10,000
10,000
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5

180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
 180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1 2 3 4 5

5 Prons
200,000.00
200,000
180,000.00
180,000
160,000.00
160,000
140,000.00
140,000
120,000.00
120,000 5 100,000.00
100,000
80,000.00
80,000
60,000.00
60,000
40,000.00
40,000
20,000.00
20,000
0.00
0 1 2 3 4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
 Pronstico
del Ao
Promedio de las ventas Factor de 5
del periodo Estacionalidad Ventas
58,666.4 0.80 96,576.67
56,300.0 0.77 92,681.10
54,586.8 0.75 89,860.83
57,313.6 0.78 94,349.69
58,860.4 0.81 96,896.03
66,477.2 0.91 109,434.81
76,042.0 1.04 125,180.39
81,710.8 1.12 134,512.38
89,327.6 1.22 147,051.16
80,944.4 1.11 133,250.73
104,561.2 1.43 172,128.72
92,178.0 1.26 151,743.49

2
0
0
0
0
0 2

0
0
0
0
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

4
0
0
0
0
0 4

0
0
0
0
0
0
0 4

0
0
0
0
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Pronstico del Ao 5
0,000.00
0,000.00
0,000.00
0,000.00
0,000.00
0,000.00
0,000.00
0,000.00
0,000.00
0,000.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
 INFORMACIN CORRESPONDIENTE CON LA ESTACIONALIDAD
Ao Ao Ao Ao Ao
1 2 3 4 5 Promedio de
las ventas del
periodo
Periodo Ventas Ventas Ventas Ventas Ventas
1 50 55 60 55 65 57.00
2 51 56 61 56 66 58.00
3 52 57 62 57 67 59.00
4 53 58 63 58 68 60.00
5 54 59 64 59 69 61.00
6 55 60 65 60 70 62.00
7 56 61 66 61 71 63.00
8 57 62 67 62 72 64.00
9 58 63 68 63 73 65.00
10 59 64 69 64 74 66.00
11 60 65 70 65 75 67.00
12 61 66 71 66 76 68.00
13 62 67 72 67 77 69.00
14 63 68 73 68 78 70.00
15 64 69 74 69 79 71.00
16 65 70 75 70 80 72.00
17 66 71 76 71 81 73.00
18 67 72 77 72 82 74.00
19 68 73 78 73 83 75.00
20 69 74 79 74 84 76.00

Total 1190 1290 1390 1290 1490

Ventas/Ao

Promedio de 59.50 64.50 69.50 64.50 74.50

Ventas
D
INFORMACIN CORRESPONDIENTE CON LA TENDENCIA

ndice de a
Factor de Periodos Demanda Estacionalidad Demanda Ventas por
Estacionalidad (Cronolgicamente) Cronolgica del Periodo descentralizada Periodo
46.9094608206
0.86 1 50 0.86 58 58 b
0.87 2 51 0.87 58 117 1.1467180171
0.89 3 52 0.89 59 176 PERIODO A CALCULAR
0.90 4 51 0.90 57 226 8
0.92 5 54 0.92 59 294 PRONOSTICO DEL PERIOD
0.93 6 55 0.93 59 354
53.9748137935
0.95 7 56 0.95 59 414
0.96 8 57 0.96 59 474 Indice de Estacionalidad del P
0.98 9 56 0.98 57 516 0.96
0.99 10 59 0.99 59 594
1.01 11 60 1.01 60 655
1.02 12 65 1.02 64 763
1.04 13 62 1.04 60 806
1.05 14 63 1.05 60 882
1.07 15 64 1.07 60 960
1.08 16 65 1.08 60 1040
1.10 17 55 1.10 50 935
1.11 18 67 1.11 60 1206
1.13 19 68 1.13 60 1292
1.14 20 69 1.14 60 1380

Total 210 1179 1179 13142.0675

Comportamiento de las ventas

20
ENDENCIA

46.9094608206
b
1.1467180171
PERIODO A CALCULAR
8
PRONOSTICO DEL PERIODO

53.9748137935

Indice de Estacionalidad del Periodo

0.96

Comportamiento de las ventas