ao enero febrero marzo abril mayo junio julio

1988 13700 14240 16200 15100 15000 13900 11100

1989 14720 14000 16700 14400 15000 16200 13500
1990 12800 12600 15600 15200 13700 14100 15100
1991 13900 14600 17100 16400 16200 16200 17600
1992 15100 14800 14400 14800 14500 15200 15800
1993 15400 14300 15900 16900 16100 18000 17800
1994 16800 15900 16500 16500 17800 18100 18400
1995 17600 16700 18900 18200 17900 18600 19100
1996 20600 2000 20600 19000 20600 20500 21200
1997 19734 19745 21817 20393 20965 21124 21496
1998 22013 20575 21629 21302 20099 21117 21271
1999 20761 21216 22576 22162 22679 22318 22447
2000 22004 21392 21952 20652 21381 21678 22415
2001 22992 20958 22597 21908 24854 23900 23993
2002 25273 22678 25233 24108 22965 25004 24412
2003 26688 25925 25777 25895 25422 25491 22762
2004 24442 24193 23495 23661 24262 24167 24267
2005 25931 23856 25247 24818 24540 24055 25674
2006 24613 23205 25287 24987 24675 24775 25736
2007 28408 25101 27063 24853 25563 26671 27894
2008 28043 25955 27178 26404 28329 28185 29320
2009 27062 23851 25104 24232 25669 24978 25140
2010 23210 21479 22301 22764 21498 22399 22080
2011 17532 15913 16090 17956 19707 18663 19639
2012 18451 19613 21431 19779 20180 20505 23282
2013 19705 20592 20162 20901 22341 22016 21877
agosto septiembre octubre noviembre diciembre
6700 14900 9900 1400 8100
13100 15200 16000 15700 15700
15100 16400 15900 14900 14400
17100 17100 17200 15900 15500
15400 15900 16500 16600 14400
17400 16700 17800 17300 17200
18500 16800 18200 17300 17700
20300 20000 19400 18800 18700
20500 20200 21300 20800 20500
21994 22391 22363 21665 21010
20771 21531 21817 21713 21037
23343 22711 23368 23576 22542
22688 22719 23737 23205 24072
25194 24848 26320 25240 24897
25743 24771 27440 25117 27688
24769 23979 26909 23959 25808
26866 25269 25800 24573 25520
27515 26891 29495 25463 25933
26260 24897 26308 26809 28849
27538 27598 27713 26747 28122
29699 29786 29338 29050 30188
24880 23390 24555 25231 24875
22135 20663 19796 18807 18967
20790 20412 19348 18963 19912
22083 19219 19417 19971 20603
20004 23627 21997 23270 24487
ao enero febrero marzo abril mayo
2010 101914.145 94029.33087 99303.413598 101244.901 103460.081
2011 102727.44 90410.44282 107888.485918 88499.4421 98656.6231
2012 97793.5242 89572.91359 108953.714317 95435.7882 106650.991
2013 93309.6874 92831.01942 106150.717143 100682.698 109277.871
2014 111893.295 111178.5687 118019.10399 103409.896 113671.987
2015 111898.533 99721.40367 129076.294628 122506.308 131953.225
2016 157317.398 169109.0072 188051.785164 187983.028 212479.203

ao mes produccion total movil promedio movil

pro_mo_cen
2010 1 101914.1449
2 94029.33087
3 99303.4136
4 101244.9014
5 103460.0806
6 108543.4754 1247184.029392 103932.002
7 106503.1883 1247997.324738 103999.777 103965.89
8 102872.4666 1244378.436691 103698.203 103848.99
9 98187.65323 1252963.509011 104413.626 104055.914
10 111546.7816 1240218.049653 103351.504 103882.565
11 104407.4255 1235414.592128 102951.216 103151.36
12 115171.1673 1228445.107269 102370.426 102660.821
2011 1 102727.4403 1222438.746339 101869.896 102120.161
2 90410.44282 1224508.324909 102042.36 101956.128
3 107888.4859 1230000.672256 102500.056 102271.208
4 88499.44209 1221710.043648 101809.17 102154.613
5 98656.62309 1227760.874144 102313.406 102061.288
6 101573.9906 1235345.068018 102945.422 102629.414
7 100496.8273 1230411.151988 102534.263 102739.843
8 104942.0452 1229573.622763 102464.469 102499.366
9 103680.0006 1230638.851162 102553.238 102508.853
10 103256.1529 1237575.197248 103131.266 102842.252
11 110458.256 1245569.565186 103797.464 103464.365
12 122755.3611 1255181.632421 104598.469 104197.967
2012 1 97793.52425 1264610.560202 105384.213 104991.341
2 89572.91359 1272812.112957 106067.676 105725.945
3 108953.7143 1282737.269861 106894.772 106481.224
4 95435.78817 1294345.061863 107862.088 107378.43
5 106650.991 1301018.515528 108418.21 108140.149
6 111186.0578 1298761.364688 108230.114 108324.162
7 109925.7551 1294277.527799 107856.461 108043.287
8 113143.598 1297535.633628 108127.969 107992.215
9 113605.1575 1294732.636454 107894.386 108011.178
10 114863.9449 1299979.545793 108331.629 108113.008
 11 117131.7097 1302606.425601 108550.535 108441.082
12 120498.2103 1314613.207627 109551.101 109050.818
2013 1 93309.68736 1329675.74757 110806.312 110178.706
2 92831.01942 1348881.722848 112406.81 111606.561
3 106150.7171 1355992.203279 112999.35 112703.08
4 100682.6975 1363459.015482 113621.585 113310.467
5 109277.8708 1366320.684578 113860.057 113740.821
6 123192.8398 1375989.533312 114665.794 114262.926
7 124988.295 1394573.14082 116214.428 115440.111
8 132349.5733 1412920.690102 117743.391 116978.91
9 120715.6379 1424789.076949 118732.423 118237.907
10 122330.7572 1427516.275463 118959.69 118846.056
11 119993.3788 1431910.391306 119325.866 119142.778
12 130167.059 1434980.744416 119581.729 119453.797
2014 1 111893.2949 1429782.247831 119148.521 119365.125
2 111178.5687 1415934.623705 117994.552 118571.536
3 118019.104 1400507.702729 116708.975 117351.764
4 103409.896 1398290.941119 116524.245 116616.61
5 113671.9867 1393741.239522 116145.103 116334.674
6 126263.1929 1377642.413987 114803.534 115474.319
7 119789.7985 1377647.652416 114803.971 114803.753
8 118501.9491 1366190.48738 113849.207 114326.589
9 105288.7169 1377247.678018 114770.64 114309.924
10 120113.9955 1396344.089777 116362.007 115566.324
11 115443.6772 1414625.328406 117885.444 117123.726
12 114068.2335 1434089.343938 119507.445 118696.445
2015 1 111898.5333 1469612.857977 122467.738 120987.592
2 99721.40367 1503565.559798 125297.13 123882.434
3 129076.2946 1546492.502589 128874.375 127085.753
4 122506.3078 1585233.927057 132102.827 130488.601
5 131953.2253 1628435.586872 135702.966 133902.896
6 145727.2085 1700817.419959 141734.785 138718.875
7 155313.3125 1746236.284682 145519.69 143627.238
8 152454.6509 1815623.888193 151301.991 148410.841
9 148215.6597 1874599.378729 156216.615 153759.303
10 158855.42 1940076.099232 161673.008 158944.812
11 158645.337 2020602.076486 168383.506 165028.257
12 186450.0666 2082072.085738 173506.007 170944.757
2016 1 157317.398 2128649.586383 177387.466 175446.736
2 169109.0072 2177677.075929 181473.09 179430.278
3 188051.7852 2228998.454724 185749.871 183611.48
4 187983.0283 2288827.647742 190735.637 188242.754
5 212479.2026 2329036.879617 194086.407 192411.022
6 207197.2177 2353858.557924 196154.88 195120.643
7 201890.8131
 8 201482.1405
9 199537.0385
10 218684.613
11 198854.5689
12 211271.7449

Calculo del Indice estacional o temporal

ao enero febrero marzo abril

2010 -- -- -- --
2011 1.0059 0.8868 1.0549 0.8663
2012 0.9314 0.8472 1.0232 0.8888
2013 0.8469 0.8318 0.9419 0.8886
2014 0.9374 0.9376 1.0057 0.8868
2015 0.9249 0.805 1.0157 0.9388
2016 0.8967 0.8967 1.0242 0.9986

Uso de las medias modificadas

mes enero febrero marzo abril

media modificada 0.92 0.87 1.02 0.90

mes indice desajustado constante de ajuste indice temporal

1 92% 1.003896373 92.620%
2 87% 1.003896373 86.900%
3 102% 1.003896373 102.120%
4 90% 1.003896373 90.430%
5 98% 1.003896373 98.260%
6 105% 1.003896373 105.840%
7 104% 1.003896373 104.570%
8 103% 1.003896373 103.780%
9 98% 1.003896373 98.880%
10 103% 1.003896373 103.780%
11 102% 1.003896373 102.210%
12 110% 1.003896373 110.610%
1195% 1200%

Calculo de la constante de estacionalidad

Suma deseada 1200%
Suma de indices 1195%

Constante de estacionalidad 1.003896373

x ao mes produccion
produccion desestacionalizada
produccion pronosticada
-41.5 2010 1 101914.1449 110034.706253509 81786.3323
-40.5 2 94029.33087 108204.063136939 82850.8948
-39.5 3 99303.4136 97241.8856227967 83915.4573
-38.5 4 101244.9014 111959.417718677 84980.0199
-37.5 5 103460.0806 105292.164268268 86044.5824
-36.5 6 108543.4754 102554.304075964 87109.1449
-35.5 7 106503.1883 101848.702547576 88173.7074
-34.5 8 102872.4666 99125.5219184814 89238.2699
-33.5 9 98187.65323 99299.8111134709 90302.8324
-32.5 10 111546.7816 107483.890494315 91367.395
-31.5 11 104407.4255 102149.912483123 92431.9575
-30.5 12 115171.1673 104123.648200886 93496.52
-29.5 2011 1 102727.4403 110912.805309868 94561.0825
-28.5 2 90410.44282 104039.635004603 95625.645
-27.5 3 107888.4859 105648.732783 96690.2075
-26.5 4 88499.44209 97865.1355578901 97754.7701
-25.5 5 98656.62309 100403.646534704 98819.3326
-24.5 6 101573.9906 95969.3788501512 99883.8951
-23.5 7 100496.8273 96104.8363048676 100948.458
-22.5 8 104942.0452 101119.719808248 102013.02
-21.5 9 103680.0006 104854.369514563 103077.583
-20.5 10 103256.1529 99495.2331345153 104142.145
-19.5 11 110458.256 108069.911011643 105206.708
-18.5 12 122755.3611 110980.346396348 106271.27
-17.5 2012 1 97793.52425 105585.75280501 107335.833
-16.5 2 89572.91359 103075.849935558 108400.395
-15.5 3 108953.7143 106691.847157266 109464.958
-14.5 4 95435.78817 105535.539280106 110529.52
-13.5 5 106650.991 108539.579709953 111594.083
-12.5 6 111186.0578 105051.075028345 112658.645
-11.5 7 109925.7551 105121.693702783 113723.208
-10.5 8 113143.598 109022.545742918 114787.77
-9.5 9 113605.1575 114891.947289644 115852.333
-8.5 10 114863.9449 110680.232172866 116916.895
-7.5 11 117131.7097 114599.070257313 117981.458
-6.5 12 120498.2103 108939.707358286 119046.02
-5.5 2013 1 93309.68736 100744.641933708 120110.583
-4.5 2 92831.01942 106825.108657077 121175.145
-3.5 3 106150.7171 103947.03989718 122239.708
-2.5 4 100682.6975 111337.717029747 123304.27
-1.5 5 109277.8708 111212.976624262 124368.833
-0.5 6 123192.8398 116395.351318972 125433.395
0.5 7 124988.295 119525.958733862 126497.958
1.5 8 132349.5733 127528.977885912 127562.521
2.5 9 120715.6379 122082.967143002 128627.083
 3.5 10 122330.7572 117875.079159761 129691.646
4.5 11 119993.3788 117398.863913511 130756.208
5.5 12 130167.059 117681.094876593 131820.771
6.5 2014 1 111893.2949 120808.998992658 132885.333
7.5 2 111178.5687 127938.514044879 133949.896
8.5 3 118019.104 115569.0403349 135014.458
9.5 4 103409.896 114353.528722769 136079.021
10.5 5 113671.9867 115684.904003664 137143.583
11.5 6 126263.1929 119296.289631519 138208.146
12.5 7 119789.7985 114554.650916133 139272.708
13.5 8 118501.9491 114185.728583542 140337.271
14.5 9 105288.7169 106481.307579895 141401.833
15.5 10 120113.9955 115739.059107728 142466.396
16.5 11 115443.6772 112947.536649056 143530.958
17.5 12 114068.2335 103126.51072055 144595.521
18.5 2015 1 111898.5333 120814.654821853 145660.083
19.5 2 99721.40367 114754.204452244 146724.646
20.5 3 129076.2946 126396.684907951 147789.208
21.5 4 122506.3078 135470.870046445 148853.771
22.5 5 131953.2253 134289.869024018 149918.333
23.5 6 145727.2085 137686.326982237 150982.896
24.5 7 155313.3125 148525.688535909 152047.458
25.5 8 152454.6509 146901.764256119 153112.021
26.5 9 148215.6597 149894.477878236 154176.583
27.5 10 158855.42 153069.396810561 155241.146
28.5 11 158645.337 155215.083674787 156305.708
29.5 12 186450.0666 168565.289390652 157370.271
30.5 2016 1 157317.398 169852.513516519 158434.833
31.5 2 169109.0072 194601.849459148 159499.396
32.5 3 188051.7852 184147.850728555 160563.959
33.5 4 187983.0283 207876.842072321 161628.521
34.5 5 212479.2026 216241.810051903 162693.084
35.5 6 207197.2177 195764.567016251 163757.646
36.5 7 201890.8131 193067.622785694 164822.209
37.5 8 201482.1405 194143.515601272 165886.771
38.5 9 199537.0385 201797.166789037 166951.334
39.5 10 218684.613 210719.418990171 168015.896
40.5 11 198854.5689 194554.905487721 169080.459
41.5 12 211271.7449 191006.00750565 170145.021

a 125965.6767
b 1064.562516

PRONOSTICO
 x ao mes
pronostico desestacionalizado
produccion pronosticada
42.5 1 171209.5837 158574.316395817
43.5 2 172274.1462 149706.233036376
44.5 3 173338.7087 177013.489327494
45.5 4 174403.2712 157712.878163457
46.5 5 175467.8337 172414.693428271
47.5 2017 6 176532.3963 186841.888192484
48.5 7 177596.9588 185713.139783216
49.5 8 178661.5213 185414.926788199
50.5 9 179726.0838 177713.151661255
51.5 10 180790.6463 187624.532746693
52.5 11 181855.2088 185874.208947277
53.5 12 182919.7713 202327.559088271
54.5 1 183984.3339 15047403870.2208
55.5 2 185048.8964 15331466652.6751
56.5 3 186113.4589 15617796021.831
57.5 4 187178.0214 15906391977.6884
58.5 5 188242.5839 16197254520.2473
59.5 2018 6 189307.1464 16490383649.5077
60.5 7 190371.709 16785779365.4697
61.5 8 191436.2715 17083441668.1331
62.5 9 192500.834 17383370557.4982
63.5 10 193565.3965 17685566033.5647
64.5 11 194629.959 17990028096.3328
65.5 12 195694.5215 18296756745.8024
 junio julio agosto septiembre octubre noviembre diciembre
108543.475 106503.188 102872.467 98187.6532 111546.782 104407.426 115171.167
101573.991 100496.827 104942.045 103680.001 103256.153 110458.256 122755.361
111186.058 109925.755 113143.598 113605.157 114863.945 117131.71 120498.21
123192.84 124988.295 132349.573 120715.638 122330.757 119993.379 130167.059
126263.193 119789.798 118501.949 105288.717 120113.996 115443.677 114068.234
145727.208 155313.313 152454.651 148215.66 158855.42 158645.337 186450.067
207197.218 201890.813 201482.14 199537.039 218684.613 198854.569 211271.745

% valor real
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1.0244
--
--
--
--
--
102.44%
99.06%
94.36%
107.38%
101.22%
112.19%
100.59% 1.0059 0.8868 1.0549 0.8663 0.9666 0.9897 0.9782
88.68%
105.49%
86.63%
96.66%
98.97%
97.82%
102.38%
101.14%
100.40%
106.76%
117.81%
93.14% 0.9314 0.8472 1.0232 0.8888 0.9862 1.0264 1.0174
84.72%
102.32%
88.88%
98.62%
102.64%
101.74%
104.77%
105.18%
106.24%
108.01%
110.50%
84.69% 0.8469 0.8318 0.9419 0.8886 0.9608 1.0782 1.0827
83.18%
94.19%
88.86%
96.08%
107.82%
108.27%
113.14%
102.10%
102.93%
100.71%
108.97%
93.74% 0.9374 0.9376 1.0057 0.8868 0.9771 1.0934 1.0434
93.76%
100.57%
88.68%
97.71%
109.34%
104.34%
103.65%
92.11%
103.94%
98.57%
96.10%
92.49% 0.9249 0.805 1.0157 0.9388 0.9854 1.0505 1.0814
80.50%
101.57%
93.88%
98.54%
105.05%
108.14%
102.72%
96.39%
99.94%
96.13%
109.07%
89.67% 0.8967 0.9425 1.0242 0.9986 1.1043 1.0619 --
94.25%
102.42%
99.86%
110.43%
106.19%
--
 --
--
--
--
--

mayo junio julio agosto septiembre octubre noviembre diciembre

-- -- 1.0244 0.9906 0.9436 1.0738 1.0122 1.1219
0.9666 0.9897 0.9782 1.0238 1.0114 1.004 1.0676 1.1781
0.9862 1.0264 1.0174 1.0477 1.0518 1.0624 1.0801 1.105
0.9608 1.0782 1.0827 1.1314 1.021 1.0293 1.0071 1.0897
0.9771 1.0934 1.0434 1.0365 0.9211 1.0394 0.9857 0.961
0.9854 1.0505 1.0814 1.0272 0.9639 0.9994 0.9613 1.0907
1.1043 1.0619 -- -- -- -- -- --

mayo junio julio agosto septiembre octubre noviembre diciembre

0.98 1.05 1.04 1.03 0.98 1.03 1.02 1.10
0.9906 0.9436 1.0738 1.0122 1.1219

1.0238 1.0114 1.004 1.0676 1.1781

1.0477 1.0518 1.0624 1.0801 1.105

 1.1314 1.021 1.0293 1.0071 1.0897

1.0365 0.9211 1.0394 0.9857 0.961

1.0272 0.9639 0.9994 0.9613 1.0907

-- -- -- -- --