15 1 5 Simulacion Montecarlo

Simulacin de Montecarlo con Excel
PLANTEAMIENTO DEL PROBLEMA FASES PARA DESARROLLAR EL
El gerente de PRODUCTOS PRECEDEROS SL vende todos 1) DEFINIR LAS VARIABLES NO CONTROBLES (

los das un producto perecedero en el mercado, de tal manera UNIDADES VENDIDAS
que las existencias que no se venden en el da constituyen
PRECIO DE VENTA
una perdida neta igual al coste de su adquisicin ms
1/unidad en concepto de transporte. PRECIO DE COMPRA
2) DEFINIR VARIABLE NO CONTROLADAS DETE
COSTE DE TRANSPORTE 1 POR UNID
3) DEFINIR VARIABLES CONTROLADAS
A primera hora de la maana adquiere las unidades de CANTIDAD A COMPRAR ( 18, 19, 20, 21, 2
producto que prev que va a vender. A continuacin se va a su 4) CALCULO DE LA FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION
puesto en el mercado, donde permanece hasta las 14 horas.
DE LAS VARIABLE NO CONTROLABLES
Despus de esa hora las unidades sobrantes van al
contenedor de basura. 5) INTEGRACION DE LOS ELEMENTOS EN EL M
COMBINAR LOS N ALEATORIOS OBTEN
CON LA FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION VA
Y SIMULAR LOS BENEFICIOS EN FUNCIO
TODAS LAS VARIABLES DEL MODELO
Por esta razn, el gerente desea ser muy cuidadoso con las 6) FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION DE LOS BENEFI
provisiones de ese producto y con tal motivo ha decidido COMO HERRAMIENTA DE DECISIN
realizar un modelo de simulacin que le informe de cuantas 7) COMPARACION DE LOS BENEFICIOS ESPER
unidades de ese producto debe adquirir cada da. OPTENCION DE MEDIAS E INTERVALOS
PARA CADA CANTIDAD COMPRADA
COMO HERRAMIENTA DE DECISIN
Si vende todo (COMPRAS <= DEMANDA) sus ingresos

sern: (VENTAS x PRECIO DE VENTA) - (COMPRAS x
PRECIO DE COMPRA) - (COMPRAS x 1 de transporte)
Si no vende todo, (COMPRAS > DEMANDA) sus ingresos

sern: (DEMANDA x PRECIO DE VENTA) - (COMPRAS x www.economia-excel.com
PRECIO DE COMPRA) - (COMPRAS x 1 de tansporte)
Hay un coste de exceso si la DEMANDA < COMPRAS. La

cantidad no vendida por el precio de compra ms los gastos
de transporte.
Los datos histricos que puede facilitar son los siguientes:

Unidades vendidas N de das
20 10
21 20
22 30
23 30
24 20
25 10
Los precios de venta han variado cada da y los datos que
nos puede proporcionar son :
Precio de venta N de das
10 20
12 30
14 40
16 30
18 10
Asimismo nos puede facilitar el precio de compra unitario

de la mercanca
Precio de compra N de das

5 15
7 25
9 35
11 25
17 10
rlo con Excel
PARA DESARROLLAR EL MODELO:
ABLES NO CONTROBLES (ALEATORIAS)
NO CONTROLADAS DETERMINISTAS
ANSPORTE 1 POR UNIDAD
S CONTROLADAS
OMPRAR ( 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 . ) a optimizar.
UNCION DE DISTRIBUCION
BLE NO CONTROLABLES (ALEATORIAS)
LOS ELEMENTOS EN EL MODELO
S N ALEATORIOS OBTENIDOS CON EXCEL
ON DE DISTRIBUCION VAR. ALEATORIAS
S BENEFICIOS EN FUNCION DE LAS
ARIABLES DEL MODELO
RIBUCION DE LOS BENEFICIOS SIMULADOS
MIENTA DE DECISIN
LOS BENEFICIOS ESPERADOS
E MEDIAS E INTERVALOS (nivel confianza 95 %)
ANTIDAD COMPRADA
MIENTA DE DECISIN
www.economia-excel.com
Empresa: PRODUCTOS PERECEDEROS SL
Objetivo: decidir el n de unidades de mximo beneficio que debe adquirir la empresa

PRODUCTOS PERECEDEROS SL
Mtodo: simulacin de Montecarlo con Excel = mtodo cuantitativo que a partir de una
muestra estadstica y una serie de nmeros aleatorios que analiza el comportamiento de
sistemas reales no dinmicos.
Modelo: Max Beneficio / Beneficio=si adquisicin <= demanda , ((adquisicin x precio de

venta) - (adquisicin x precio de compra) - (adquisicin x transporte)), (demanda x precio
de venta) - (demanda x precio de compra) - (demanda x transporte) - coste de exceso)
(utilizando notacin Excel)
1 - Variables no controlables aleatorias:

VENTAS PRECIO DE VENTA PRECIO DE COMPRA
uds vendidas n de das precios n de das precios n de das
20 10 10 20 5 15
21 20 12 30 7 25
22 30 14 40 9 35
23 30 16 30 11 25
24 20 18 10 17 10
25 10
2 - Variables no controlables deterministas:

Coste exceso = Precio adquisicin + 1
3 - Variables controlables:
Cantidad de productos a adquirir: 18, 19, 20. 30
4 - Distribucin de probabilidad de las variables no controlables:

Demanda Precio venta Precio compra
Pr. Acumulada Demanda n de das Pr. Suceso Pr. Acumulada P. Venta n de das Pr. Suceso Pr. Acumulada P. Compra n de das Pr. Suceso
0.00 19 0.00 9 0.00 4
0.08 20 10 0.08 0.15 10 20 0.15 0.14 5 15 0.14
0.25 21 20 0.17 0.38 12 30 0.23 0.36 7 25 0.23
0.50 22 30 0.25 0.69 14 40 0.31 0.68 9 35 0.32
0.75 23 30 0.25 0.92 16 30 0.23 0.91 11 25 0.23
0.92 24 20 0.17 1.00 18 10 0.08 1.00 17 10 0.09
1.00 25 10 0.08 130 1.00 110 1.00
120 1.00
A continuacin se representa grficamente el rea de probabilidad de cada suceso:
Demanda Precio de Venta Precio de Compra

0.14
0.23
0.32
0.23
0.09
0.08
0.17
0.25
0.25
0.17
0.08
0.15
0.23
0.31
0.23
0.08
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
prob. Demanda 25 uds prob. Demanda 24 uds
prob. precio compra 17 prob. precio compra 11 prob. precio compra 9
prob. Demanda 23 uds prob. Demanda 22 uds prob. precio vta. 18 prob. precio vta.16 prob. precio vta. 14
prob. precio compra 7 prob. precio compra 5
prob. Demanda 21 uds prob. Demanda 20 uds prob. precio vta. 12 prob. precio vta. 10
5 - Integracin de los elementos en el modelo
Se trata de generar una serie de nmeros pseudo-aleatorios mediante Excel, dentro de una distribucin uniforme
entre 0 y 1, y buscar el intervalo de nmeros aleatorios asociados a cada suceso a partir de la columna de
probabilidad acumulada. Se realizan 1000 ensayos
Con los datos simulados se calcula el beneficio para las distintas cantidades a adquirir (variables controlables) y
conforme a la frmula del modelo.
SIMULACIN DE BENEFICIOS PARA LAS SIGUIENTES CANTIDADES A COMPRAR
ASIGNACIN DE SUCESOS A LOS NUM. ALEATORIOS EXCEL
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
n sucesos demanda precio venta precio compra coste compra coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios
1 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
2 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
3 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
4 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
5 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
6 24 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26
7 24 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 7 137 14 130
8 22 17 12 13 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 13 75 26 62 39 49 52 36
9 24 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 7 137 14 130
10 24 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 13 35 26 22
11 22 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 6 82 12 76 18 70 24 64
12 23 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 6 155 12 149 18 143
13 24 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 11 37 22 26
14 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
15 22 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 6 82 12 76 18 70 24 64
16 22 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52
17 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
18 22 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 6 104 12 98 18 92 24 86
19 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
20 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
21 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
22 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
23 22 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 0 231 0 242 6 236 12 230 18 224 24 218
24 25 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 9 141
25 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
26 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
27 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
28 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
29 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
30 24 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 0 -46 0 -48 13 -61 26 -74
31 20 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 6 174 12 168 18 162 24 156 30 150 36 144
32 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
33 24 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 0 120 6 114 12 108
34 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
35 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
36 25 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 0 230 0 240 0 250 7 243
37 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
38 24 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 11 85 22 74
39 20 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 7 73 14 66 21 59 28 52 35 45 42 38
40 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
41 20 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 9 151 18 142 27 133 36 124 45 115 54 106
42 24 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 0 72 7 65 14 58
43 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
44 23 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 11 -34 22 -45 33 -56
45 24 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 6 162 12 156
46 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
47 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
48 24 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 7 137 14 130
49 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
50 24 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 9 15 18 6
51 25 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11
52 20 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 7 113 14 106 21 99 28 92 35 85 42 78
53 22 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 13 31 26 18 39 5 52 -8
54 25 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 0 -24 0 -25 11 -36
55 20 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 9 31 18 22 27 13 36 4 45 -5 54 -14
56 22 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 7 59 14 52 21 45 28 38
57 21 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 6 141 12 135 18 129 24 123 30 117
58 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
59 20 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 6 174 12 168 18 162 24 156 30 150 36 144
60 24 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 7 185 14 178
61 21 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 0 231 6 225 12 219 18 213 24 207 30 201
62 21 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 6 183 12 177 18 171 24 165 30 159
63 22 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 6 104 12 98 18 92 24 86
64 21 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 7 77 14 70 21 63 28 56 35 49
65 24 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 0 231 0 242 0 253 0 264 6 258 12 252
66 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
67 20 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 7 113 14 106 21 99 28 92 35 85 42 78
68 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
69 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
70 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
71 24 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 11 85 22 74
72 21 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 9 159 18 150 27 141 36 132 45 123
73 24 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 11 37 22 26
74 24 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 6 90 12 84
75 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
76 25 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 0 25 9 16
77 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
78 24 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 7 89 14 82
79 22 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 6 82 12 76 18 70 24 64
80 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
81 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
82 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
83 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
84 20 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 7 193 14 186 21 179 28 172 35 165 42 158
85 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
86 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
87 24 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 9 15 18 6
88 24 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 0 216 6 210 12 204
89 21 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 13 29 26 16 39 3 52 -10 65 -23
90 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
91 23 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 9 14 18 5 27 -4
92 25 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 0 231 0 242 0 253 0 264 0 275 6 269
93 21 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 7 77 14 70 21 63 28 56 35 49
94 22 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 6 82 12 76 18 70 24 64
95 21 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 7 203 14 196 21 189 28 182 35 175
96 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
97 24 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 0 120 6 114 12 108
98 24 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 7 185 14 178
99 25 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 9 41
100 21 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 6 141 12 135 18 129 24 123 30 117
101 21 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 13 -55 26 -68 39 -81 52 -94 65 -107
102 24 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 6 162 12 156
103 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
104 23 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 0 -63 0 -66 0 -69 13 -82 26 -95 39 -108
105 24 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 11 85 22 74
106 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
107 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
108 23 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 0 -46 13 -59 26 -72 39 -85
109 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
110 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
111 21 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 9 12 18 3 27 -6 36 -15 45 -24
112 24 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 0 -46 0 -48 13 -61 26 -74
113 22 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 11 121 22 110 33 99 44 88
114 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
115 23 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 0 -63 0 -66 0 -69 13 -82 26 -95 39 -108
116 21 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 11 31 22 20 33 9 44 -2 55 -13
117 21 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 7 119 14 112 21 105 28 98 35 91
118 23 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 6 86 12 80 18 74
119 24 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 0 216 6 210 12 204
120 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
121 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
122 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
123 24 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 11 85 22 74
124 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
125 22 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 11 -33 22 -44 33 -55 44 -66
126 23 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 6 201 12 195 18 189
127 20 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 7 113 14 106 21 99 28 92 35 85 42 78
128 24 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26
129 20 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 6 174 12 168 18 162 24 156 30 150 36 144
130 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
131 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
132 20 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55 66 -66
133 22 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 9 167 18 158 27 149 36 140
134 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
135 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
136 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
137 21 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 11 73 22 62 33 51 44 40 55 29
138 25 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11
139 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
140 22 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 11 121 22 110 33 99 44 88
141 20 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 9 111 18 102 27 93 36 84 45 75 54 66
142 22 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 11 -33 22 -44 33 -55 44 -66
143 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
144 22 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 7 213 14 206 21 199 28 192
145 22 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52
146 20 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 9 71 18 62 27 53 36 44 45 35 54 26
147 20 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 11 29 22 18 33 7 44 -4 55 -15 66 -26
148 24 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 7 185 14 178
149 20 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 7 53 14 46 21 39 28 32 35 25 42 18
150 25 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 11 39
151 22 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 13 -57 26 -70 39 -83 52 -96
152 21 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 7 119 14 112 21 105 28 98 35 91
153 22 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 0 231 0 242 6 236 12 230 18 224 24 218
154 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
155 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
156 23 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 7 62 14 55 21 48
157 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
158 23 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 6 201 12 195 18 189
159 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
160 20 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 9 151 18 142 27 133 36 124 45 115 54 106
161 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
162 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
163 20 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 7 153 14 146 21 139 28 132 35 125 42 118
164 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
165 21 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55
166 24 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 0 -24 11 -35 22 -46
167 24 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 9 15 18 6
168 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
169 22 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 0 -63 0 -66 13 -79 26 -92 39 -105 52 -118
170 23 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 9 14 18 5 27 -4
171 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
172 24 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 6 162 12 156
173 21 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 7 119 14 112 21 105 28 98 35 91
174 24 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 11 37 22 26
175 22 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 9 167 18 158 27 149 36 140
176 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
177 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
178 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
179 24 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 11 37 22 26
180 23 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 6 109 12 103 18 97
181 21 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 9 159 18 150 27 141 36 132 45 123
182 25 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 11 39
183 22 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 6 104 12 98 18 92 24 86
184 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
185 21 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 9 159 18 150 27 141 36 132 45 123
186 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
187 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
188 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
189 21 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 13 -55 26 -68 39 -81 52 -94 65 -107
190 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
191 25 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 0 200 9 191
192 23 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 0 -46 13 -59 26 -72 39 -85
193 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
194 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
195 24 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 7 137 14 130
196 24 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 0 216 6 210 12 204
197 21 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 9 12 18 3 27 -6 36 -15 45 -24
198 24 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 0 -24 11 -35 22 -46
199 23 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 11 127 22 116 33 105
200 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
201 21 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 11 31 22 20 33 9 44 -2 55 -13
202 25 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 11 39
203 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
204 23 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 0 231 0 242 0 253 6 247 12 241 18 235
205 24 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 7 137 14 130
206 25 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 0 216 0 225 6 219
207 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
208 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
209 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
210 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
211 24 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 0 230 0 240 7 233 14 226
212 20 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 11 -31 22 -42 33 -53 44 -64 55 -75 66 -86
213 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
214 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
215 22 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52
216 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
217 20 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 7 73 14 66 21 59 28 52 35 45 42 38
218 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
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841 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
842 20 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55 66 -66
843 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
844 24 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 0 72 7 65 14 58
845 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
846 23 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 9 175 18 166 27 157
847 20 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 7 73 14 66 21 59 28 52 35 45 42 38
848 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
849 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
850 21 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 6 141 12 135 18 129 24 123 30 117
851 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
852 21 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 9 159 18 150 27 141 36 132 45 123
853 23 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39
854 24 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 7 137 14 130
855 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
856 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
857 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
858 21 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 9 117 18 108 27 99 36 90 45 81
859 20 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 6 134 12 128 18 122 24 116 30 110 36 104
860 22 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 11 -33 22 -44 33 -55 44 -66
861 24 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 7 89 14 82
862 24 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 7 185 14 178
863 21 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 6 141 12 135 18 129 24 123 30 117
864 21 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 11 31 22 20 33 9 44 -2 55 -13
865 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
866 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
867 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
868 21 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 11 115 22 104 33 93 44 82 55 71
869 23 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 7 62 14 55 21 48
870 20 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 6 134 12 128 18 122 24 116 30 110 36 104
871 25 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 9 91
872 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
873 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
874 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
875 21 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 7 56 14 49 21 42 28 35 35 28
876 24 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 6 162 12 156
877 22 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 11 121 22 110 33 99 44 88
878 23 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 11 127 22 116 33 105
879 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
880 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
881 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
882 21 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 7 77 14 70 21 63 28 56 35 49
883 25 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 0 25 9 16
884 20 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 11 29 22 18 33 7 44 -4 55 -15 66 -26
885 21 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55
886 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
887 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
888 24 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 7 89 14 82
889 24 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 6 90 12 84
890 25 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 7 143
891 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
892 21 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55
893 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
894 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
895 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
896 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
897 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
898 23 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39
899 21 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 7 56 14 49 21 42 28 35 35 28
900 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
901 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
902 24 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 11 37 22 26
903 23 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 7 177 14 170 21 163
904 24 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 0 -46 0 -48 13 -61 26 -74
905 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
906 25 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11
907 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
908 24 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 11 37 22 26
909 22 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 6 148 12 142 18 136 24 130
910 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
911 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
912 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
913 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
914 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
915 25 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 7 93
916 24 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 11 85 22 74
917 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
918 23 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39
919 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
920 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
921 22 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 6 104 12 98 18 92 24 86
922 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
923 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
924 20 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 11 29 22 18 33 7 44 -4 55 -15 66 -26
925 24 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 0 -63 0 -66 0 -69 0 -72 13 -85 26 -98
926 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
927 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
928 22 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 6 192 12 186 18 180 24 174
929 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
930 24 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 9 15 18 6
931 25 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 0 200 7 193
932 22 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 11 -33 22 -44 33 -55 44 -66
933 25 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 9 41
934 24 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 0 -63 0 -66 0 -69 0 -72 13 -85 26 -98
935 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
936 25 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 9 91
937 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
938 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
939 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
940 22 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52
941 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
942 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
943 21 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 7 119 14 112 21 105 28 98 35 91
944 23 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 0 -46 13 -59 26 -72 39 -85
945 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
946 24 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 0 72 7 65 14 58
947 23 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 7 177 14 170 21 163
948 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
949 22 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 7 213 14 206 21 199 28 192
950 20 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52 65 -65 78 -78
951 25 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 0 175 6 169
952 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
953 23 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 6 155 12 149 18 143
954 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
955 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
956 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
957 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
958 24 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 7 137 14 130
959 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
960 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
961 21 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 11 73 22 62 33 51 44 40 55 29
962 21 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 6 141 12 135 18 129 24 123 30 117
963 21 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52 65 -65
964 21 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 6 141 12 135 18 129 24 123 30 117
965 22 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 11 -33 22 -44 33 -55 44 -66
966 25 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 0 175 6 169
967 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
968 24 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26
969 25 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 11 89
970 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
971 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
972 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
973 21 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 7 119 14 112 21 105 28 98 35 91
974 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
975 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
976 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
977 21 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 11 31 22 20 33 9 44 -2 55 -13
978 23 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 7 62 14 55 21 48
979 22 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 6 192 12 186 18 180 24 174
980 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
981 21 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 7 77 14 70 21 63 28 56 35 49
982 21 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 6 99 12 93 18 87 24 81 30 75
983 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
984 21 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 6 141 12 135 18 129 24 123 30 117
985 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
986 21 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 11 31 22 20 33 9 44 -2 55 -13
987 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
988 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
989 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
990 21 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 11 -32 22 -43 33 -54 44 -65 55 -76
991 23 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 13 33 26 20 39 7
992 24 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 9 183 18 174
993 24 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 7 185 14 178
994 20 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 9 71 18 62 27 53 36 44 45 35 54 26
995 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
996 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
997 22 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52
998 23 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 9 14 18 5 27 -4
999 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
1000 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
6 - Funcin de distribucin de beneficios simulados:
Para comparar, de las 9 simulaciones realizadas, se eligen 3 ( 20, 22 y 24 unidades), se calcula la distribucin de beneficios y se representa
grficamente la probabilidad acumulada.
20 unid. 22 unid. 24 unid.

n sucesos prob prob acum n sucesos prob prob acum. n sucesos prob prob acum
-114 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-113 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-112 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-111 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PROB. ACUMULADA
-110 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-109 0 0
DISTRIBUCIN
0 0
DE
0
BENEFICIOS
0 0 0 0
-108
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-107 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.9
-106 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-105 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.8
-104 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-103 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.7
-102 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.002 0.002
-101 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
0.6
-100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
-99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
20 unid.
0.5
-98 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
-97 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 22 unid.
-96
0.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 24 unid.
-95 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
-94 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
0.3
-93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
-92 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.002 0.004
0.2
-91 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004
-90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004
0.1
-89 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004
-88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004
-87
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004
21
39
66
93
-105
-78
-69
-51
-33
-24
-6
12
30
48
57
75
84
-114
-96
-87
-60
-42
-15
102
111
120
129
138
147
156
165
174
183
192
201
210
219
228
237
246
-86 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004
-85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004
-84 0 0 0
BENEFICIO
0
SIMULADO
0 0 0 0 0.004
-83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004
-82 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.004 0.008
-81 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.004 0.012
-80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.012
-79 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.012
-78 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.012
-77 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.012
-76 0 0 0 1 0.002 0.002 0 0 0.012
-75 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0.012
-74 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0.012
-73 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0.012
-72 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 1 0.002 0.014
-71 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0.014
-70 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 1 0.002 0.016
-69 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0.016
-68 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0.016
-67 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0.016
-66 0 0 0 4 0.008 0.01 0 0 0.016
-65 0 0 0 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.016
-64 0 0 0 0 0 0.01 2 0.004 0.02
-63 0 0 0 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.02
-62 0 0 0 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.02
-61 0 0 0 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.02
-60 5 0.01 0.01 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.02
-59 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.01 3 0.006 0.026
-58 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.026
-57 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.026
-56 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.026
-55 0 0 0.01 2 0.004 0.014 0 0 0.026
-54 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.014 1 0.002 0.028
-53 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.028
-52 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.028
-51 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.028
-50 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.028
-49 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.028
-48 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.014 2 0.004 0.032
-47 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.032
-46 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.032
-45 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.032
-44 0 0 0.01 6 0.012 0.026 4 0.008 0.04
-43 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.026 0 0 0.04
-42 0 0 0.01 2 0.004 0.03 0 0 0.04
-41 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.03 0 0 0.04
-40 8 0.016 0.026 0 0 0.03 0 0 0.04
-39 0 0 0.026 0 0 0.03 1 0.002 0.042
-38 0 0 0.026 0 0 0.03 0 0 0.042
-37 0 0 0.026 0 0 0.03 0 0 0.042
-36 0 0 0.026 0 0 0.03 0 0 0.042
-35 0 0 0.026 0 0 0.03 0 0 0.042
-34 0 0 0.026 0 0 0.03 3 0.006 0.048
-33 0 0 0.026 0 0 0.03 2 0.004 0.052
-32 0 0 0.026 1 0.002 0.032 0 0 0.052
-31 0 0 0.026 0 0 0.032 0 0 0.052
-30 0 0 0.026 0 0 0.032 0 0 0.052
-29 0 0 0.026 0 0 0.032 0 0 0.052
-28 0 0 0.026 0 0 0.032 0 0 0.052
-27 0 0 0.026 0 0 0.032 0 0 0.052
-26 0 0 0.026 0 0 0.032 4 0.008 0.06
-25 0 0 0.026 0 0 0.032 0 0 0.06
-24 0 0 0.026 0 0 0.032 5 0.01 0.07
-23 0 0 0.026 0 0 0.032 0 0 0.07
-22 0 0 0.026 12 0.024 0.056 10 0.02 0.09
-21 0 0 0.026 0 0 0.056 0 0 0.09
-20 14 0.028 0.054 0 0 0.056 0 0 0.09
-19 0 0 0.054 0 0 0.056 0 0 0.09
-18 0 0 0.054 0 0 0.056 0 0 0.09
-17 0 0 0.054 0 0 0.056 0 0 0.09
-16 0 0 0.054 0 0 0.056 1 0.002 0.092
-15 0 0 0.054 0 0 0.056 0 0 0.092
-14 0 0 0.054 0 0 0.056 0 0 0.092
-13 0 0 0.054 1 0.002 0.058 1 0.002 0.094
-12 0 0 0.054 0 0 0.058 0 0 0.094
-11 0 0 0.054 2 0.004 0.062 6 0.012 0.106
-10 0 0 0.054 0 0 0.062 0 0 0.106
-9 0 0 0.054 0 0 0.062 0 0 0.106
-8 0 0 0.054 0 0 0.062 0 0 0.106
-7 0 0 0.054 0 0 0.062 0 0 0.106
-6 0 0 0.054 0 0 0.062 6 0.012 0.118
-5 0 0 0.054 0 0 0.062 0 0 0.118
-4 0 0 0.054 0 0 0.062 5 0.01 0.128
-3 0 0 0.054 0 0 0.062 0 0 0.128
-2 0 0 0.054 0 0 0.062 0 0 0.128
-1 0 0 0.054 0 0 0.062 0 0 0.128
0 37 0.074 0.128 33 0.066 0.128 12 0.024 0.152
1 0 0 0.128 0 0 0.128 0 0 0.152
2 0 0 0.128 1 0.002 0.13 0 0 0.152
3 0 0 0.128 0 0 0.13 1 0.002 0.154
4 0 0 0.128 0 0 0.13 12 0.024 0.178
5 0 0 0.128 0 0 0.13 0 0 0.178
6 0 0 0.128 0 0 0.13 0 0 0.178
7 0 0 0.128 0 0 0.13 0 0 0.178
8 0 0 0.128 0 0 0.13 0 0 0.178
9 0 0 0.128 0 0 0.13 4 0.008 0.186
10 0 0 0.128 0 0 0.13 0 0 0.186
11 0 0 0.128 0 0 0.13 0 0 0.186
12 0 0 0.128 6 0.012 0.142 0 0 0.186
13 0 0 0.128 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.186
14 0 0 0.128 0 0 0.142 2 0.004 0.19
15 0 0 0.128 0 0 0.142 5 0.01 0.2
16 0 0 0.128 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.2
17 0 0 0.128 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.2
18 0 0 0.128 5 0.01 0.152 2 0.004 0.204
19 0 0 0.128 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.204
20 25 0.05 0.178 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.204
21 0 0 0.178 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.204
22 0 0 0.178 22 0.044 0.196 9 0.018 0.222
23 0 0 0.178 0 0 0.196 0 0 0.222
24 0 0 0.178 0 0 0.196 8 0.016 0.238
25 0 0 0.178 0 0 0.196 0 0 0.238
26 0 0 0.178 0 0 0.196 8 0.016 0.254
27 0 0 0.178 0 0 0.196 0 0 0.254
28 0 0 0.178 0 0 0.196 0 0 0.254
29 0 0 0.178 1 0.002 0.198 0 0 0.254
30 0 0 0.178 0 0 0.198 0 0 0.254
31 0 0 0.178 4 0.008 0.206 0 0 0.254
32 0 0 0.178 0 0 0.206 2 0.004 0.258
33 0 0 0.178 5 0.01 0.216 0 0 0.258
34 0 0 0.178 0 0 0.216 0 0 0.258
35 0 0 0.178 0 0 0.216 13 0.026 0.284
36 0 0 0.178 0 0 0.216 2 0.004 0.288
37 0 0 0.178 0 0 0.216 8 0.016 0.304
38 0 0 0.178 0 0 0.216 0 0 0.304
39 0 0 0.178 0 0 0.216 0 0 0.304
40 77 0.154 0.332 0 0 0.216 0 0 0.304
41 0 0 0.332 0 0 0.216 0 0 0.304
42 0 0 0.332 0 0 0.216 1 0.002 0.306
43 0 0 0.332 0 0 0.216 0 0 0.306
44 0 0 0.332 58 0.116 0.332 7 0.014 0.32
45 0 0 0.332 0 0 0.332 0 0 0.32
46 0 0 0.332 2 0.004 0.336 0 0 0.32
47 0 0 0.332 0 0 0.336 0 0 0.32
48 0 0 0.332 0 0 0.336 18 0.036 0.356
49 0 0 0.332 0 0 0.336 0 0 0.356
50 0 0 0.332 0 0 0.336 0 0 0.356
51 0 0 0.332 0 0 0.336 3 0.006 0.362
52 0 0 0.332 0 0 0.336 6 0.012 0.374
53 0 0 0.332 0 0 0.336 0 0 0.374
54 0 0 0.332 0 0 0.336 0 0 0.374
55 0 0 0.332 0 0 0.336 0 0 0.374
56 0 0 0.332 1 0.002 0.338 0 0 0.374
57 0 0 0.332 0 0 0.338 5 0.01 0.384
58 0 0 0.332 2 0.004 0.342 0 0 0.384
59 0 0 0.332 0 0 0.342 0 0 0.384
60 13 0.026 0.358 0 0 0.342 0 0 0.384
61 0 0 0.358 0 0 0.342 0 0 0.384
62 0 0 0.358 7 0.014 0.356 4 0.008 0.392
63 0 0 0.358 0 0 0.356 6 0.012 0.404
64 0 0 0.358 0 0 0.356 0 0 0.404
65 0 0 0.358 0 0 0.356 0 0 0.404
66 0 0 0.358 13 0.026 0.382 13 0.026 0.43
67 0 0 0.358 0 0 0.382 0 0 0.43
68 0 0 0.358 0 0 0.382 0 0 0.43
69 0 0 0.358 0 0 0.382 0 0 0.43
70 0 0 0.358 0 0 0.382 10 0.02 0.45
71 0 0 0.358 0 0 0.382 0 0 0.45
72 0 0 0.358 0 0 0.382 4 0.008 0.458
73 0 0 0.358 3 0.006 0.388 0 0 0.458
74 0 0 0.358 0 0 0.388 4 0.008 0.466
75 0 0 0.358 5 0.01 0.398 0 0 0.466
76 0 0 0.358 0 0 0.398 6 0.012 0.478
77 0 0 0.358 6 0.012 0.41 0 0 0.478
78 0 0 0.358 1 0.002 0.412 0 0 0.478
79 0 0 0.358 0 0 0.412 0 0 0.478
80 118 0.236 0.594 0 0 0.412 0 0 0.478
81 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.412 5 0.01 0.488
82 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.412 0 0 0.488
83 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.412 10 0.02 0.508
84 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.412 2 0.004 0.512
85 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.412 10 0.02 0.532
86 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.412 5 0.01 0.542
87 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.412 3 0.006 0.548
88 0 0 0.594 91 0.182 0.594 0 0 0.548
89 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.548
90 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.548
91 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.548
92 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.594 3 0.006 0.554
93 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.554
94 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.554
95 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.554
96 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.594 28 0.056 0.61
97 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.61
98 0 0 0.594 0 0 0.594 6 0.012 0.622
99 0 0 0.594 3 0.006 0.6 3 0.006 0.628
100 15 0.03 0.624 0 0 0.6 0 0 0.628
101 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.6 0 0 0.628
102 0 0 0.624 2 0.004 0.604 0 0 0.628
103 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.604 0 0 0.628
104 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.604 0 0 0.628
105 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.604 7 0.014 0.642
106 0 0 0.624 3 0.006 0.61 0 0 0.642
107 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.61 0 0 0.642
108 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.61 0 0 0.642
109 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.61 2 0.004 0.646
110 0 0 0.624 12 0.024 0.634 4 0.008 0.654
111 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.634 0 0 0.654
112 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.634 0 0 0.654
113 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.634 0 0 0.654
114 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.634 9 0.018 0.672
115 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.634 0 0 0.672
116 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.634 1 0.002 0.674
117 0 0 0.624 3 0.006 0.64 0 0 0.674
118 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.64 6 0.012 0.686
119 0 0 0.624 7 0.014 0.654 0 0 0.686
120 80 0.16 0.784 0 0 0.654 4 0.008 0.694
121 0 0 0.784 0 0 0.654 0 0 0.694
122 0 0 0.784 0 0 0.654 0 0 0.694
123 0 0 0.784 0 0 0.654 0 0 0.694
124 0 0 0.784 0 0 0.654 2 0.004 0.698
125 0 0 0.784 0 0 0.654 0 0 0.698
126 0 0 0.784 0 0 0.654 0 0 0.698
127 0 0 0.784 0 0 0.654 4 0.008 0.706
128 0 0 0.784 1 0.002 0.656 0 0 0.706
129 0 0 0.784 0 0 0.656 17 0.034 0.74
130 0 0 0.784 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.74
131 0 0 0.784 0 0 0.656 7 0.014 0.754
132 0 0 0.784 65 0.13 0.786 1 0.002 0.756
133 0 0 0.784 0 0 0.786 0 0 0.756
134 0 0 0.784 0 0 0.786 0 0 0.756
135 0 0 0.784 0 0 0.786 0 0 0.756
136 0 0 0.784 0 0 0.786 0 0 0.756
137 0 0 0.784 0 0 0.786 0 0 0.756
138 0 0 0.784 0 0 0.786 0 0 0.756
139 0 0 0.784 0 0 0.786 0 0 0.756
140 22 0.044 0.828 0 0 0.786 0 0 0.756
141 0 0 0.828 4 0.008 0.794 4 0.008 0.764
142 0 0 0.828 2 0.004 0.798 6 0.012 0.776
143 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.798 0 0 0.776
144 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.798 22 0.044 0.82
145 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.798 0 0 0.82
146 0 0 0.828 1 0.002 0.8 0 0 0.82
147 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.8 7 0.014 0.834
148 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.8 0 0 0.834
149 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.8 0 0 0.834
150 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.8 0 0 0.834
151 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.8 0 0 0.834
152 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.8 0 0 0.834
153 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.8 0 0 0.834
154 0 0 0.828 17 0.034 0.834 0 0 0.834
155 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.834 5 0.01 0.844
156 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.834 3 0.006 0.85
157 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.85
158 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.834 3 0.006 0.856
159 0 0 0.828 4 0.008 0.842 0 0 0.856
160 48 0.096 0.924 0 0 0.842 0 0 0.856
161 0 0 0.924 7 0.014 0.856 0 0 0.856
162 0 0 0.924 0 0 0.856 7 0.014 0.87
163 0 0 0.924 0 0 0.856 0 0 0.87
164 0 0 0.924 0 0 0.856 0 0 0.87
165 0 0 0.924 0 0 0.856 0 0 0.87
166 0 0 0.924 0 0 0.856 0 0 0.87
167 0 0 0.924 0 0 0.856 0 0 0.87
168 0 0 0.924 3 0.006 0.862 6 0.012 0.882
169 0 0 0.924 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.882
170 0 0 0.924 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.882
171 0 0 0.924 0 0 0.862 5 0.01 0.892
172 0 0 0.924 0 0 0.862 1 0.002 0.894
173 0 0 0.924 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.894
174 0 0 0.924 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.894
175 0 0 0.924 0 0 0.862 3 0.006 0.9
176 0 0 0.924 34 0.068 0.93 0 0 0.9
177 0 0 0.924 0 0 0.93 11 0.022 0.922
178 0 0 0.924 0 0 0.93 0 0 0.922
179 0 0 0.924 0 0 0.93 0 0 0.922
180 21 0.042 0.966 0 0 0.93 0 0 0.922
181 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.93 0 0 0.922
182 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.93 0 0 0.922
183 0 0 0.966 5 0.01 0.94 0 0 0.922
184 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.94 0 0 0.922
185 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.94 0 0 0.922
186 0 0 0.966 1 0.002 0.942 1 0.002 0.924
187 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.942 0 0 0.924
188 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.942 0 0 0.924
189 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.942 2 0.004 0.928
190 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.942 0 0 0.928
191 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.942 0 0 0.928
192 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.942 10 0.02 0.948
193 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.942 0 0 0.948
194 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.942 0 0 0.948
195 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.942 0 0 0.948
196 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.942 0 0 0.948
197 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.942 0 0 0.948
198 0 0 0.966 13 0.026 0.968 0 0 0.948
199 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.968 0 0 0.948
200 11 0.022 0.988 0 0 0.968 0 0 0.948
201 0 0 0.988 0 0 0.968 8 0.016 0.964
202 0 0 0.988 0 0 0.968 0 0 0.964
203 0 0 0.988 2 0.004 0.972 0 0 0.964
204 0 0 0.988 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.964
205 0 0 0.988 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.964
206 0 0 0.988 0 0 0.972 3 0.006 0.97
207 0 0 0.988 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.97
208 0 0 0.988 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.97
209 0 0 0.988 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.97
210 0 0 0.988 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.97
211 0 0 0.988 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.97
212 0 0 0.988 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.97
213 0 0 0.988 0 0 0.972 1 0.002 0.972
214 0 0 0.988 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.972
215 0 0 0.988 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.972
216 0 0 0.988 0 0 0.972 4 0.008 0.98
217 0 0 0.988 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.98
218 0 0 0.988 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.98
219 0 0 0.988 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.98
220 6 0.012 1 8 0.016 0.988 0 0 0.98
221 0 0 1 0 0 0.988 0 0 0.98
222 0 0 1 0 0 0.988 0 0 0.98
223 0 0 1 0 0 0.988 1 0.002 0.982
224 0 0 1 0 0 0.988 0 0 0.982
225 0 0 1 1 0.002 0.99 0 0 0.982
226 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.982
227 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.982
228 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.982
229 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.982
230 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 2 0.004 0.986
231 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.986
232 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.986
233 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.986
234 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.986
235 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.986
236 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.986
237 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.986
238 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.986
239 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.986
240 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 4 0.008 0.994
241 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.994
242 0 0 1 5 0.01 1 0 0 0.994
243 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.994
244 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.994
245 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.994
246 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.994
247 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0.002 0.996
248 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.996
249 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.996
250 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.996
7 - Beneficios esperados:
A partir de los beneficios simulados para cada cantidad comprada, obtenemos la variable aleatoria de beneficios esperados, calculando la media de las
1000 simulaciones, y adems obtenemos el intervalo de confianza a un nivel del 95%.
BENEFICIO, VARIANZA E INTERVALO GENERADO A PARTIR DE EL N DE UNIDADES COMPRADAS

CANTIDADES 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
BENEFICIO MEDIO 75.71 79.91 84.12 87.29 88.51 86.40 80.99 73.16 64.37
DESVIACIN TPICA 54.09 57.10 60.11 63.09 65.81 68.80 71.22 73.22 74.72
INTERVALO CONFIANZA 4.74 5.00 5.27 5.53 5.77 6.03 6.24 6.42 6.55
MXIMO 80.45 84.92 89.39 92.82 94.28 92.43 87.23 79.58 70.92
B E N E F IC IO M E D IO E N 1 0 0 0 E N S AY.
MNIMO 70.97 74.91 78.85 81.76 82.75 80.37 74.75 66.74 57.82
BENEFICIO ESPERADO
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
BENEFICIO MEDIO
50.00 MXIMO
40.00 MNIMO
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
CANTIDADES COMPRADAS SIMULADAS
PULSAR F9 PARA RECLCULO ALEATORIO
Decisin:
Los resultados de la simulacin indican que la decisin que maximiza el

beneficio es realizar un pedido de 22 unidades.
Los resultados de la simulacin indican que la decisin que maximiza el
beneficio es realizar un pedido de 22 unidades.

15 1 5 Simulacion Montecarlo

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15 1 5 Simulacion Montecarlo

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Simulacin de Montecarlo con Excel

PLANTEAMIENTO DEL PROBLEMA FASES PARA DESARROLLAR EL

El gerente de PRODUCTOS PRECEDEROS SL vende todos 1) DEFINIR LAS VARIABLES NO CONTROBLES (

Si vende todo (COMPRAS <= DEMANDA) sus ingresos

Si no vende todo, (COMPRAS > DEMANDA) sus ingresos

Hay un coste de exceso si la DEMANDA < COMPRAS. La

Los datos histricos que puede facilitar son los siguientes:

Asimismo nos puede facilitar el precio de compra unitario

Precio de compra N de das

PARA DESARROLLAR EL MODELO:

ABLES NO CONTROBLES (ALEATORIAS)

Objetivo: decidir el n de unidades de mximo beneficio que debe adquirir la empresa

Modelo: Max Beneficio / Beneficio=si adquisicin <= demanda , ((adquisicin x precio de

1 - Variables no controlables aleatorias:

2 - Variables no controlables deterministas:

4 - Distribucin de probabilidad de las variables no controlables:

A continuacin se representa grficamente el rea de probabilidad de cada suceso:

Demanda Precio de Venta Precio de Compra

5 - Integracin de los elementos en el modelo

20 unid. 22 unid. 24 unid.

BENEFICIO, VARIANZA E INTERVALO GENERADO A PARTIR DE EL N DE UNIDADES COMPRADAS

PULSAR F9 PARA RECLCULO ALEATORIO

Los resultados de la simulacin indican que la decisin que maximiza el

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