Forecasting

Resultado de aprendizaje: Realizar intercambios sociales y prcticos muy breves, con un

vocabulario suficiente para hacer una exposicin o mantener una conversacin sencilla sobre
temas tcnicos de Forecasting

1. Elabore una simulacin pronostica de la demanda del producto o servicio segn su proyecto
de formacin. Tenga en cuenta los siguientes elementos:

Name of the company Transports Mora Surco S.A.S

Main business rea Transport service

Seven steps to make a forecasting system:

Maintenance of vehicles, customer service,

Uses
Compliance

Items Spare parts for cars, Warehouse, Labor

Time horizon Four Years

Model Quantitative model and regression

Data gathering Surveys, information history

Making Collection and distribution

Validation and Implementation quality management systems ISO 9001

2. Grafique el pronstico y escriba las tendencias que tendr su producto o servicio a corto,
mediano y largo plazo.

MONTH TOTAL SALES

January $ 11,345,818
February $ 13,245,899
March $ 14,898,365
April $ 17,522,211
May $ 19,254,874
June $ 16,547,985
July $ 18,325,985
August $ 21,256,265
September $ 23,587,795
October $ 26,011,036
November $ 29,369,147
December $ 33,654,987

GRAPHICOF OF FORECASTING
$40,000,000

$35,000,000

$30,000,000

$25,000,000

$20,000,000

$15,000,000

$10,000,000

$5,000,000

$-
3. Realice una simulacin pronostica de la demanda de los productos o servicios a ejecutar a
travs de los inventarios.

Looking at the previous scenario, we concluded that:

1. In January we started sales with an index below 20 million pesos

2. February to May incremental sales 3 times compared to the first month

3. In June and July we had a considerable decrease, considering that for the company is
the best season

4. From August to November we had very good sales

5. December sales were excellent compared to last year