45

40

35

30

25

Y obs
Y estimado
20

15

10

0
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
Resumen

Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple 0.88
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2 0.77
R^2 ajustado 0.7176383492
Error tpico 6.3824269796
Observaciones 6

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Regresin 1 558.3918367347
Residuos 4 162.9414965986
Total 5 721.3333333333

Coeficientes Error tpico

Intercepcin -12.0299319728 10.1612845377
inv. Publicidad(x) 12.3265306122 3.3293325984

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin Pronstico utilidad(y) Residuos

1 18.7863945578 -8.7863945578
2 6.4598639456 5.5401360544
3 26.1823129252 -5.1823129252
4 28.6476190476 1.3523809524
5 28.6476190476 4.3523809524
6 37.2761904762 2.7238095238
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crtico de F
558.3918367347 13.7077871111 0.0207916693
40.7353741497

Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%

-1.1838987412 0.3019998211 -40.2421806901 16.1823167445
3.7024028834 0.0207916693 3.0828214158 21.5702398087
Inferior 99,0% Superior 99,0%
-58.8134499993 34.7535860537
-3.0020325292 27.6550937537
t utilidad(y) inv. Publicidad(x) X*Y y^2 x^2
1 10 2.5 25 100 6.25
2 12 1.5 18 144 2.25
3 21 3.1 65.1 441 9.61
4 30 3.3 99 900 10.89
5 33 3.3 108.9 1089 10.89
6 40 4 160 1600 16
total: 146 17.7 476 4274 55.89
Yp 24.33
Xp 2.95

1.- 146 6 17.7

2.- 476 17.7 55.89

3.- 2584.2 106.2 313.29

4.- -2856 -106.2 -335.34
(3+4) -271.8 0 -22.05

B2 12.3265306122
B1 -12.0299319728
utilidad(y)
inv. Publicidad(x)

B2
12.33

t al 1%
t al 5%
t al 10%

t al 1% n=6
t al 1% n=20
t al 1% n=120
Ye Ui Ui^2 (Ye-Yp)^2 (Xi-Xp)^2
18.79 -8.79 77.20 30.77 0.2025
6.46 5.54 30.69 319.46 2.1025
26.18 -5.18 26.86 3.42 0.0225
28.65 1.35 1.83 18.61 0.1225
28.65 4.35 18.94 18.61 0.1225
37.28 2.72 7.42 167.52 1.1025
0.00 162.94 558.39 3.675

Sui^2 40.735 40.74

Sye^2 139.60 139.60
Sy^2 180.33 180.33
17.7
-6 24.33
R^2 77%

-1.87

Vb1 103.25
B1 Sb1 10.16 -1.18
-12.03 Vb2 11.08 3.70
Sb2 3.33
VALOR EN TABLA
t al 1% 4.604

4.604 Li <=B1=> Ls
2.776 -58.81 34.75
2.132
Li <=B2=> Ls
-3.002
3.08 21.57
5.23 19.42

Li <=B2=> Ls
4.604 -3.00 27.65
2.878 2.74 21.91
2.617 3.61 21.04
PROYECCION
DATOS
E(Pub) 5.5
E(U/Pub) 55.77

V(Y/X0) 78.8659012
6.5025
1.7669836957
0.16666667
1.93365036
78.77
Resumen

Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple 0.985
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2 0.9698
R^2 ajustado 0.9648017225
Error tpico 3.284143837
Observaciones 8

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Regresin 1 2080.2551455477
Residuos 6 64.7136044523
Total 7 2144.96875

Coeficientes Error tpico

Intercepcin -12.63 2.960
MATERIA
PRIMA 1.08 0.078

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin Pronstico PRODUCCION Residuos

1 0.8210303142 4.1789696858
2 9.0652226175 -3.5652226175
3 10.6923658352 -3.6923658352
4 19.9128440691 1.0871559309
5 36.1842762466 3.8157237534
6 36.1842762466 0.8157237534
7 41.6080869724 -0.6080869724
8 47.0318976983 -2.0318976983
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crtico de F
2080.26 192.8733684196 8.6805973729352E-06
10.79

Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%

-4.2664980519 0.005283362 -19.8735595871 -5.3864809846

13.8878856713 8.6805973729E-06 0.8936374908 1.2758867995

Inferior 99,0% Superior 99,0%
-23.61 -1.66

0.80 1.37
Resumen

Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente d 0.9847995
Coeficiente 0.96983005
R^2 ajustado 0.96480172
Error tpico 3.28414384
Observacione 8

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crtico de F
Regresin 1 2080.25515 2080.25515 192.873368 8.6806E-06
Residuos 6 64.7136045 10.7856007
Total 7 2144.96875

Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 99.0%
Intercepcin -12.63002 2.96027799 -4.2664981 0.00528336 -19.87356 -5.386481 -23.605038
MATERIA
PRIMA 1.08476215 0.07810852 13.8878857 8.6806E-06 0.89363749 1.2758868 0.79518044

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin
Pronstico PRODUCCION
Residuos
1 0.82103031 4.17896969
2 9.06522262 -3.5652226
3 10.6923658 -3.6923658
4 19.9128441 1.08715593
5 36.1842762 3.81572375
6 36.1842762 0.81572375
7 41.608087 -0.608087
8 47.0318977 -2.0318977
Superior 99.0%
-1.6550027

1.37434385
 Y X
MATERIA
CICLOS PRODUCCION PRIMA Y*X X^2 Y^2 Ye
1 5 12.4 62 153.76 25 0.82
2 5.5 20 110 400 30.25 9.07
3 7 21.5 150.5 462.25 49 10.69
4 21 30 630 900 441 19.91
5 40 45 1800 2025 1600 36.18
6 37 45 1665 2025 1369 36.18
7 41 50 2050 2500 1681 41.61
8 45 55 2475 3025 2025 47.03
SUMATORIAS 201.5 278.9 8942.5 11491.01 7220.25
PROMEDIO DE X 34.86
PROMEDIO DE Y 25.19 E1 201.5 8 278.9
E2 8942.5 278.9 11491.01
A)
B1 B2
-56198.35 -2231.2 -77785.21 -278.9
71540 2231.2 91928.08 8
B1 B2 b2 b1
15341.65 0 14142.87 1.08 -12.63

B2 1.08

B1 B2
201.5 8 302.54

B1 -12.63
B)
Varianza no Varianza Varianza
Explicada Explicada Total

n 8
k 2
n-k 6

Vui^2 10.79 Sye^2 346.71 Sy^2

Coeficiente
Coeficiente de de
determinacion correlacion

R^2 0.97 r 0.98

0.98
Ui=(Y-Ye) ui^2=(Y-Ye)^2 (Ye-Yp)^2 xi^2=(Xi-Xp)^2
4.18 17.46 593.72 504.56
-3.57 12.71 259.93 220.89
-3.69 13.63 210.11 178.56
1.09 1.18 27.82 23.64
3.82 14.56 120.93 102.77
0.82 0.67 120.93 102.77
-0.61 0.37 269.64 229.14
-2.03 4.13 477.18 405.52
0.00 64.71 2080.26 1767.86

C)
Vb1 8.76
Sb1 2.960
Vb2 0.006
Sb2 0.078

D)
t al 1% 3.707

Li <=B1=> Ls
-23.60 -1.66

0.80 1.37

13.89

-11.72

357.49

F)
PROYECCIONES
DATOS
 E(M.PRIMA) 77
E(PROD./M.PRIMA) 70.90

V(Y/X0) 12.18

S(Y/X0) 3.49

INTERVALOR DE CONFIANZA PARA LA PROYECCION DE LA PRODUCCION

t al 1% 3.707
Li <=Y=> Ls
57.96 83.83
PRODUCCION
Resumen

Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple 0.9576736306
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2 0.9171387827
R^2 ajustado 0.8618979711
Error tpico 4.4635769699
Observaciones 6

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Regresin 2 661.5627752348
Residuos 3 59.7705580986
Total 5 721.3333333333

Coeficientes Error tpico

Intercepcin -1.3925198169 8.5059680263
X2 4.9892697208 3.9771362855
X3 4.7514420751 2.0879965499

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin Pronstico Y Residuos

1 15.1193802488 -5.1193802488
2 10.6052547356 1.3947452644
3 21.2013794301 -0.2013794301
4 25.0500986193 4.9499013807
5 31.7021175245 1.2978824755
6 42.3217694417 -2.3217694417
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crtico de F
330.7813876174 16.60 0.0238521188
19.9235193662

Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 90,0%

Superior 90,0%
-0.163710916 0.88036629 -28.4623063351 25.6772667 -21.41 18.63
1.254487994 0.29850658 -7.6677529565 17.6462924 -4.37 14.35
2.2755986237 0.10736956 -1.8934948305 11.396379 -0.16 9.67
 X2 Curva de regresin ajustada
50
40 X3 Curva de regresin ajustada
30 Y
20 50
Pronstico Y
Y

10 40
30 Y
0
20 Pronstico Y
Y

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

10
0 X2
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5
X3

perior 90,0%
 utilidad(y) inv. Publicidad(x2) iYd
t Y X2 X3 X2^2 X3^2 X2*X3
1 10 2.5 0.85 6.25 0.7225 2.125
2 12 1.5 0.95 2.25 0.9025 1.425
3 21 3.1 1.5 9.61 2.25 4.65
4 30 3.3 2.1 10.89 4.41 6.93
5 33 3.3 3.5 10.89 12.25 11.55
6 40 4 5 16 25 20
SUMAS 146 17.7 13.9 55.9 45.5 46.7
PROMEDIO DE Y 24.3333333
6 17.7 13.90 146
XX 17.7 55.9 46.7 XY 476
13.9 46.7 45.5 429.9

X
Y X1 X2 X3
10 1 2.5 0.85
12 1 1.5 0.95
21 1 3.1 1.5
30 1 3.3 2.1
33 1 3.3 3.5
40 1 4 5
6*3
X
1 1 1 1 1 1
2.5 1.5 3.1 3.3 3.3 4
0.85 0.95 1.5 2.1 3.5 5
3*6

6 17.7 13.9
XX 17.7 55.89 46.68 XY
13.9 46.68 45.535

3.63 -1.56 0.49

(XX)-1 -1.56 0.79 -0.34 B
0.49 -0.34 0.22

-1.39 B1 MACRO PARA LOS BETAS

B 4.99 B2 B3 B2
4.75 B3 4.75 4.99

3.63 -1.56 0.49

(XX)-1 -1.56 0.79 -0.34
 0.49 -0.34 0.22

BXY 4214.23 YY 4274

R^2 91.71%

Sui^2 19.92

MATRIZ DE VARIANZAS Y COVARIANZA

3.63 -1.56 0.49

VAR-COV 19.92 -1.56 0.79 -0.34
0.49 -0.34 0.22

72.35 -31.07 9.76

VAR-COV -31.07 15.82 -6.73
9.76 -6.73 4.36

t al 10% 2.353

16.59

Li
-18.24
-7.67
-4.37

Li
t al 1% 5.841 -7.4445458
t al 5% 3.182 -1.8925629
t al 10% 2.353 -0.16

PROYECCIONES

1
X0 5.5 E(Y/X0) 52.18
5.5
 Sui^2 X0
V(y/y0) 19.92 1 5.5 5.5

V(y/y0) 19.92 2.06

V(y/y0) 41.05

S(Y/X0) 6.41

INTERVALO DE CONFIANZA PARA LA PROYECCIONES

t al 5% 3.182 Li
31.79

B3 B2 B1
BETAS 4.75 4.99 -1.39
DESVIACION ESTANDAR 2.08799655 3.9771362855 8.50596803
COEF.DETERMINACION 0.91713878 4.4635769699 #N/A
ESTADISTICO (F) 16.60 3 #N/A
661.562775 59.7705580986 #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A
Y*X2 Y*X3
25 8.5
18 11.4
65.1 31.5
99 63
108.9 115.5
160 200
476 429.9

146
476
429.9

-1.39
4.99
4.75

B1
-1.39
 1.25448799
2.27559862

Vb1 72.35 Sb1 8.51

Vb2 15.82 Sb2 3.98
Vb3 4.36 Sb3 2.09

INTERVALOS DE CONFIANZA PARA LOS BETAS

Li <=B1=> Ls
-21.41 18.62
Li <=B2=> Ls
-4.37 14.35
Li <=B3=> Ls
-0.16 9.66

<=B2=> Ls
28.22
17.64
14.35

<=B3=> Ls
16.9474299
11.3954471
9.66
 (XX)-1 X0
3.6314614268 -1.5592274 0.48989617 1
-1.55922742 0.79391661 -0.3379108 5.5
0.4898961706 -0.3379108 0.21882327 5.5

<=Y=> Ls
72.57
Resumen

Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple 98%
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2 97%
R^2 ajustado 0.9648017225
Error tpico 3.284143837
Observaciones 8

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados
Regresin 1 2080.2551455477 2080.26
Residuos 6 64.7136044523 10.79
Total 7 2144.96875

Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t

Intercepcin -12.63 2.960 -4.2664980519
MATERIA
PRIMA 1.08 0.078 13.8878856713

Anlisis de los residuales

Ui=(Y-Ye)
Observacin Pronstico PRODUCCION Residuos
1 0.8210303142 4.1789696858
2 9.0652226175 -3.5652226175
3 10.6923658352 -3.6923658352
4 19.9128440691 1.0871559309
5 36.1842762466 3.8157237534
6 36.1842762466 0.8157237534
7 41.6080869724 -0.6080869724
8 47.0318976983 -2.0318976983
 F Valor crtico de F
192.873368 8.6806E-06

Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 99.0% Superior 99.0%

0.00528336 -19.87356 -5.386481 -23.61 -1.66

8.6806E-06 0.89363749 1.2758868 0.80 1.37

 Y X
MATERIA
CICLOS PRODUCCIONPRIMA Y*X X^2 Y^2 Ye Ui=(Y-Ye)
1 5 12.4 62 153.76 25 0.82 4.18
2 5.5 20 110 400 30.25 9.07 -3.57
3 7 21.5 150.5 462.25 49 10.69 -3.69
4 21 30 630 900 441 19.91 1.09
5 40 45 1800 2025 1600 36.18 3.82
6 37 45 1665 2025 1369 36.18 0.82
7 41 50 2050 2500 1681 41.61 -0.61
8 45 55 2475 3025 2025 47.03 -2.03
SUMATORIAS 201.5 278.9 8942.5 11491 7220 0.00
PROMEDIO DE X 34.86
PROMEDIO DE Y 25.19

B2 B1 r 0.98
1.08 -12.63
ui^2=(Y-Ye)^2 (Ye-Yp)^2 xi^2=(Xi-Xp)^2
17.46 593.72 504.56
12.71 259.93 220.89
13.63 210.11 178.56
1.18 27.82 23.64
14.56 120.93 102.77
0.67 120.93 102.77
0.37 269.64 229.14
4.13 477.18 405.52
64.71 2080.26 1767.86
 y x
Semanas Rendimiento Riesgo Y*X X^2 Y^2 Ye
1 3 1 3 1 9
2 3.5 1.2 4.2 1.44 12.25
3 4.3 1.5 6.45 2.25 18.49
4 4.6 1.8 8.28 3.24 21.16
5 4 2 8 4 16
6 5 2.5 12.5 6.25 25
7 5.1 3 15.3 9 26.01
8 4 2 8 4 16
9 0.85 1 0.85 1 0.7225
10 4.5 1.9 8.55 3.61 20.25
11 6.9 3.5 24.15 12.25 47.61
12 8.9 4.2 37.38 17.64 79.21
Sumatoria 54.65 25.6 136.66 65.68 291.7025
promedio X 2.1333333333
Promedio Y 4.5541666667
1
2

3
4
(3+4)

utilizando las macros B2 B1

1.813855422 0.6846084337
 Ui=(Y-Ye) ui^2=(Y-Ye)^2 (Ye-Yp)^2 xi^2=(Xi-Xp)^2

Resumen

Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple 92%
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2 85%
R^2 ajustado 0.8353963174
Error tpico 0.8004478227
Observaciones 12

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertadSuma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados
Regresin 1 36.4101245 36.410124498
Residuos 10 6.407167169 0.6407167169
Total 11 42.81729167

Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t

Intercepcin 0.6846084337 0.562925033 1.2161627095
Variable X 1 1.8138554217 0.240616061 7.5383804937

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin Pronstico para Y Residuos Residuos estndares

1 2.4984638554 0.501536145 0.6571515734
 2 2.8612349398 0.63876506 0.836959547
3 3.4053915663 0.894608434 1.1721853872
4 3.9495481928 0.650451807 0.8522724297
5 4.3123192771 -0.31231928 -0.4092249513
6 5.219246988 -0.21924699 -0.2872744161
7 6.1261746988 -1.0261747 -1.3445737165
8 4.3123192771 -0.31231928 -0.4092249513
9 2.4984638554 -1.64846386 -2.1599452562
10 4.1309337349 0.369066265 0.4835792582
11 7.0331024096 -0.13310241 -0.1744011052
12 8.3028012048 0.597198795 0.7824962012
 F Valor crtico de F
56.8271805 1.9740071366E-05

Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 99,0% Superior 99,0%

0.25185044 -0.5696667037 1.9388835712 -1.099454491 2.4686713585
1.974E-05 1.2777294275 2.3499814159 1.0512775146 2.5764333288