centro univeristario

a)datos del distrito 750000 hab

poblacion en el rango (10-19)aos 0.24
b)Mercado Potencial (MP) 180000 jovenes
c)Mercado Disponible
0.1 18000 jovenes
d)Mercado Objetivo
encuesta prefenrnacial al 20% de cpu/distrito 0.2
MD= 3600
Encuesta determinando la oferta 700 pes /(cpu) 700
e)Mercado efectivo
estudio preliminar proyectado 4% demanda disponible
demanda disponible= 2900
mercado efectivo al 4% 0.04 116 jovnes
poblacion estratificada
alumnos cpu marelo universo(N) TAMAO DE MUESTRA (nh)
agronomia 103 19
contablidad 144 27
derecho 287 53
matematica e informacion 23 5
enfermeria 108 20
obtetricia 139 26
ind.alimentaria 51 10
ing.civil 119 22
comunicacin 147 28 Z 1.96
total 1121 206 E 0.05

poblacion universo prob.exito prob.fracaso tamao (n) n/N

alunmos 1121 0.7 0.3 251 0.22390723
docentes 43 0.7 0.3 43
administrativos 8 0.7 0.3 8
alumnos de otro cpu 350 0.7 0.3 169 0.48285714
alumnos dl 5 3000 0.7 0.3 292 0.09733333
padres de familia 86786 0.7 0.3 322 0.00371028
emp/institucional 300 0.7 0.3 156 0.52
total 91608

demanda 322
demanda efectiva horas mensual anual
0.5 0.128 41 412 3709
1 0.149 48 960 8636
2 0.213 69 2743 24691
3 0.319 103 6163 55468
4 0.149 48 3838 34544
5 4.30% 14 1385 12461
1.001 322

1 2 3 4 5 6
g1 37036 37591.9866 38155.8664 38728.2044 39309.1275 39898.7644
g2 55468 56299.7358 57144.2318 58001.3953 58871.4162 59754.4875
g3 47006 47710.6434 48426.3031 49152.6976 49889.9881 50638.3379
total 139510 141602.3658 143726.401 145882.297 148070.532 150291.59
t.c. 0.015

1 2 3 4 5 6
g1 29629.152 30073.58928 30524.6931 30982.5635 31447.302 31919.0115
g2 44374.176 45039.78864 45715.3855 46401.1163 47097.133 47803.59
g3 37604.448 38168.51472 38741.0424 39322.1581 39911.9904 40510.6703
total 111607.776 113281.89264 114981.121 116705.838 118456.425 120233.272
cobertura 0.8

mercado 1 2 3 4 5 6
demanda 139510 141602 143726 145882 148071 150292
oferta 111607.776 113281.89264 114981.121 116705.838 118456.425 120233.272
brecha 27902 28320 28745 29176 29614 30058
DesisiconCORRECION (N0)
CORREGIR 206
22
5
CORREGIR 115
CORREGIR 267
CORRECTO 321
CORREGIR 103

7 8 9 10
40497.2458 41104.704525992 41721.2751 42347.0942
60650.8048 61560.5668722603 62483.9754 63421.235
51397.9129 52168.8816440994 52951.4149 53745.6861
152545.964 154834.153042352 157156.665 159514.015

7 8 9 10
32397.7967 32883.7636207936 33377.0201 33877.6754
48520.6438 49248.4534978082 49987.1803 50736.988
41118.3304 41735.1053152795 42361.1319 42996.5489
122036.771 123867.322433881 125725.332 127611.212

7 8 9 10
152546 154834 157157 159514
122036.771 123867.322433881 125725.332 127611.212
30509 30967 31431 31903
Alternativa

VENTAS CF CV
AO PLA DE PRODUCCION CT
2050 53400 1590.38
0 28600
1 108 221400 53400 171761 225161
2 126 258300 53400 200388 253788
3 144 295200 53400 229015 282415
4 162 332100 53400 257642 311042
5 180 369000 53400 286268 339668
6 180 369000 53400 286268 339668
7 180 369000 53400 286268 339668
8 180 369000 53400 286268 339668
9 180 369000 53400 286268 339668
10 180 369000 53400 286268 339668

Alternativa

VENTAS CF CV
AO PLA DE PRODUCCION CT
2050 53400 1590.38
0 28600
1 150 307500 53400 238557 291957
2 175 358750 53400 278317 331717
3 200 410000 53400 318076 371476
4 225 461250 53400 357836 411236
5 250 512500 53400 397595 450995
6 250 512500 53400 397595 450995
7 250 512500 53400 397595 450995
8 250 512500 53400 397595 450995
9 250 512500 53400 397595 450995
10 250 512500 53400 397595 450995
 FSA=1/ Alternativa
(1+) ^
ING FSA VALOR
AOPLA DE PRODUCCION
(ingresos) 16.53% ACTUAL
-28600 0
-3761 0.85814812 -3228 1 168
4512 0.73641819 3323 2 196
12785 0.63195588 8080 3 224
21058 0.54231175 11420 4 252
29332 0.46538381 13650 5 280
29332 0.39936824 11714 6 280
29332 0.34271710 10052 7 280
29332 0.29410203 8626 8 280
29332 0.25238311 7403 9 280
29332 0.21658209 6353 10 280
48794

se elije la alternativa c

FSA=1/
(1+) ^
ING FSA VALOR
(ingresos) 16.53% ACTUAL
-28600
15543 0.85814812 13338
27034 0.73641819 19908
38524 0.63195588 24345
50015 0.54231175 27123
61505 0.46538381 28623
61505 0.39936824 24563
61505 0.34271710 21079
61505 0.29410203 18089
61505 0.25238311 15523
61505 0.21658209 13321
177313
 FSA=1/
(1+) ^
VENTAS CF CV ING FSA VALOR
CT
2050 53400 1590.38 (ingresos) 16.53% ACTUAL
28600 -28600
344400 53400 267184 320584 23816 0.85814812 20438
401800 53400 311714 365114 36686 0.73641819 27016
459200 53400 356245 409645 49555 0.63195588 31316
516600 53400 400776 454176 62424 0.54231175 33853
574000 53400 445306 498706 75294 0.46538381 35040
574000 53400 445306 498706 75294 0.39936824 30070
574000 53400 445306 498706 75294 0.34271710 25804
574000 53400 445306 498706 75294 0.29410203 22144
574000 53400 445306 498706 75294 0.25238311 19003
574000 53400 445306 498706 75294 0.21658209 16307
232392