Resolucin curva logstica

x = Nmero de hogares que se suscribirn al servicio.

5000-x = Nmero de hogares que no se suscribirn al servicio.
K1 = constate .

dx/dt = kx(5000-x)

dx/[x(5000-x)] = kdt

utilizando fraccione parciales

A ...... ..B .......... .1

--- + ---------- = --------------
x.. ..5000-x ....x(5000-x)

entonces se debe cumplir que

A(5000-x) + Bx = 1

si x = 0 ----------> A = 1/5000
si x = 5000------> B = 1/5000

[1/5000][ 1/x dx + 1/(5000-x) dx] = kdt

[1/5000][Ln(x) - Ln(5000-x)] = kt + C

Ln[x/(5000-x)] = 5000(kt + C)

x/(5000-x) =e^(5000(kt + C))

x/(5000-x) = [e^(5000C)][e^(5000kt)]

t = 0 ------------> x = 1

x/(5000-x) = [e^(5000C)][e^(5000kt)]
1/(5000-1) =[e^(5000C)][e^(5000k0)]

1/4999 =e^[5000C]

remplazando en

x/(5000-x) = [1/4999][e^(5000kt)]

si t = 10---------------> x= 144
144/(5000-144) = [1/4999][e^(5000k*10)]

[144/4856] = [1/4999][e^(50000k)]

[144/4856][4999] = [e^(50000k)]

[719856/4856] = [e^(50000k)]

Ln[719856/4856] = 50000k

k = Ln[719856/4856]/50000 = 9,9969e-5

remplazando en

[x/(5000-x)]= [1/4999][e^(0,5t)]

x= (5000-x)[1/4999][e^(0,5t)]

x= (5000)e^(0,5t)/4999- xe^(0,5t)/4999

x + xe^(0,5t)/4999 = (5000)e^(0,5t)/4999

x(1 + e^(0,5t)/4999) = (5000)e^(0,5t)/4999

x(4999 + e^(0,5t))/4999 = (5000)e^(0,5t)/4999

x(4999 + e^(0,5t)) = (5000)e^(0,5t)

x = (5000)e^(0,5t) / (4999 + e^(0,5t))

para el numeral B no es sino remplazar t = 15 , y t = 20