40 EF PRE SUPUESTOS

30 EP
20 TP VENTAS COBRANZAS
10 CL COMPRAS PAGO A PROVEEDORES
PAGO DE IMPUESTOS
CELULARES GASTOS - RESULTADO GASTOS - FLUJO
ASISTENCIA
BIBLIOGRAFIA PRESUPUESTO DE CAJA

PLAN DE ACCION ESTADO DE RESULTADOS

BALANCE GENERAL PROYECTADO

AL PROYECTADO
METODO DE PRONOSTICOS PERSONALES
- PRONOSTICO DIRECTO SIN SESGO
Entre Y PPTO. DE VENTAS
ENERO 100,000.00 180,000.00 140,000.00
FEBRERO 200,000.00 240,000.00 220,000.00
MARZO 130,000.00 200,000.00 165,000.00

- PRONOSTICO DIRECTO CON SESGO SISTEMATICO

Entre Y PROMEDIO OPTIMISMO
ENERO 100,000.00 180,000.00 140,000.00 (14,000.00)
FEBRERO 200,000.00 240,000.00 220,000.00 (22,000.00)
MARZO 130,000.00 200,000.00 165,000.00 (16,500.00)

Cual sera el Ppto. De Ventas si el pronosticador tiene una tendencia pesimista del 14,3%?
Entre Y PROMEDIO PESIMISMO
ENERO 100,000.00 180,000.00 140,000.00 20,020.00
FEBRERO 200,000.00 240,000.00 220,000.00 31,460.00
MARZO 130,000.00 200,000.00 165,000.00 23,595.00

- COMBINACION DE PRONOSTICOS PERSONALES

Junio Julio Agosto
TOTALES 23,600.00 25,300.00 26,700.00
Promedio 1,311.11 1,405.56 1,483.33
Moda 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00

Vendedor Junio Julio Agosto

1 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00
2 1,800.00 1,600.00 1,400.00
3 800.00 900.00 1,000.00
4 2,000.00 1,800.00 2,000.00
5 1,800.00 1,500.00 1,300.00
6 600.00 1,000.00 2,000.00
7 1,000.00 1,100.00 1,100.00
8 2,000.00 2,500.00 3,000.00
9 1,000.00 1,400.00 1,600.00
10 900.00 1,100.00 1,100.00
11 1,600.00 1,800.00 2,000.00
12 2,000.00 2,000.00 1,800.00
13 1,400.00 1,400.00 1,400.00
14 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,300.00
15 1,900.00 1,800.00 1,700.00
16 1,000.00 1,400.00 1,200.00
17 800.00 1,000.00 800.00
18 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00
TOTALES 23,600.00 25,300.00 26,700.00
Promedio 1,311.11 1,405.56 1,483.33
Moda 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 CUANDO EXISTAN MAS DE 1 MOD
 PPTO. VENTAS
126,000.00
198,000.00
148,500.00

imista del 14,3%?

PPTO. VENTAS
160,020.00
251,460.00
188,595.00
NDO EXISTAN MAS DE 1 MODA, SE TOMA LA QUE MAS SE ACERQUE A LA MEDIA
COMBINACION DE PRONOSTICOS PERSONALES
E F M POND
G 80,000.00 100,000.00 100,000.00 55%
F 60,000.00 120,000.00 80,000.00 35%
R 140,000.00 160,000.00 180,000.00 10%
PPTO. VENTAS 79,000.00 113,000.00 101,000.00 100%

CUAL SERA EL PPTO. DE VENTAS SI LAS PONDERACIONES SON G(60%), F(30%) Y R(40%)?
E F M POND1 POND2
G 80,000.00 100,000.00 100,000.00 60% 46%
F 60,000.00 120,000.00 80,000.00 30% 23%
R 140,000.00 160,000.00 180,000.00 40% 31%
PPTO. VENTAS 93,846.15 123,076.92 120,000.00 130% 100%

INDIVIDUAL CON PROBABILIDAD DE OCURRENCIA

POND. ABR MAY JUN
O 20% 55,000.00 70,000.00 90,000.00
N 55% 50,000.00 55,000.00 60,000.00
P 25% 40,000.00 40,000.00 ###
PPTO. VENTAS 100% 48,500.00 54,250.00 61,000.00

METODOS DE PRONOSTICOS - PROYECCION

PROMEDIO MOVIL

ENERO 210,000.00
FEBRERO 224,000.00
MARZO 215,000.00
ABRIL 228,000.00
MAYO 215,000.00
JUNIO 222,000.00
PPTO. JULIO 219,000.00

CUAL SERA EL PPTO. DE VENTAS PARA AGOSTO, SI EL DATO REAL DE VENTAS EN JULIO ES 221.000?

FEBRERO 224,000.00
MARZO 215,000.00
ABRIL 228,000.00
MAYO 215,000.00
JUNIO 222,000.00
JULIO 221,000.00
PPTO. AGOSTO 220,833.33

PROMEDIO MOVIL
SEP 1,400,000.00 20%
OCT 1,600,000.00 30%
NOV 1,200,000.00 50%
PPTO.DIC 1,360,000.00 100%

SEP 1,400,000.00 25% 20%

OCT 1,600,000.00 38% 30%
NOV 1,200,000.00 62% 50%
PPTO.DIC 1,361,600.00 125% 100%

METODO DE TRASLACION CON FACTOR DE AJUSTE

2011 2012
ENERO 100,000.00 120,510.00 Crecimiento 3%
FEBRERO 160,000.00 192,816.00 Aum.precios 17%
MARZO 200,000.00 241,020.00
ABRIL 120,000.00 144,612.00

CUAL SERA EL PPTO. DE VENTAS SI EN LUGAR DE UN CRECIMIENTO DE MERCADO SE PRESENTA UNA D

2011 2012
ENERO 100,000.00 112,086.00 Disminucion 4.2%
FEBRERO 160,000.00 179,337.60 Aum.precios 17%
MARZO 200,000.00 224,172.00
ABRIL 120,000.00 134,503.20

COMBINACION DE ANHOS TIPO

ULIO ES 221.000?
SE PRESENTA UNA DISMINUCION DEL 4,2% Y SE MANTIENE EL AUMENTO DE PRECIOS?
1.
Entre Y PROMEDIO PESIMISMO
ABRIL 139,200.00 141,800.00 140,500.00 6,041.50
MAYO 143,600.00 145,500.00 144,550.00 6,215.65
JUNIO 153,000.00 156,900.00 154,950.00 6,662.85

2.
ABRIL MAYO JUNIO POND1
V1 63,000.00 67,200.00 69,300.00 30%
V2 61,600.00 66,300.00 70,000.00 60%
V3 64,000.00 65,900.00 65,500.00 20%
PPTO. VENTAS 62,418.18 66,472.73 68,990.91 110%

3.
PPTO. VENTAS 65,866.67
PPTO. VENTAS
146,541.50
150,765.65
161,612.85

POND2
27%
55%
18%
100%
COMBINACION DE ANHOS TIPO
1996 2000 2012
ENERO 100,000.00 140,000.00 184,720.00
FEBRERO 60,000.00 120,000.00 140,640.00
MARZO 50,000.00 120,000.00 133,760.00
ABRIL 60,000.00 160,000.00 173,760.00
MAYO 120,000.00 160,000.00 215,040.00
JUNIO 110,000.00 150,000.00 199,880.00

POND. 40% 60% 100% OK

CORRECCION 72% 38%

METODO DE TRASLACION DE UNIDADES FISICAS

2011 2012
IMPORTE UNIDADES UNIDADES IMPORTE
ENERO 1,200,000.00 30.00 33.00 1,815,000.00
FEBRERO 2,000,000.00 50.00 55.00 3,025,000.00
MARZO 1,200,000.00 30.00 33.00 1,815,000.00
ABRIL 2,400,000.00 60.00 66.00 3,630,000.00

PRECIO NETO 40,000.00 55,000.00

CUAL SERA EL PPTO. DE VENTAS SI LA DEMANDA INCREMENTA EN UN 12,3%?

2011 2012
IMPORTE UNIDADES UNIDADES
ENERO 1,200,000.00 30.00 33.69 33.00
FEBRERO 2,000,000.00 50.00 56.15 56.00
MARZO 1,200,000.00 30.00 33.69 33.00
ABRIL 2,400,000.00 60.00 67.38 67.00

PRECIO NETO 40,000.00

SEMANAS VENTAS F. ABSOLUTA

1 100,000.00 ### 2
2 130,000.00 120,000.00 1
3 170,000.00 130,000.00 3
4 200,000.00 140,000.00 3
5 140,000.00 150,000.00 2
6 250,000.00 170,000.00 1
7 130,000.00 180,000.00 2
8 210,000.00 190,000.00 4
9 180,000.00 200,000.00 3
10 230,000.00 210,000.00 1
11 190,000.00 220,000.00 2
 12 190,000.00 230,000.00 1
13 290,000.00 250,000.00 1
14 220,000.00 270,000.00 1
15 270,000.00 280,000.00 2
16 120,000.00 290,000.00 1
17 100,000.00
18 140,000.00
19 130,000.00
20 150,000.00
21 190,000.00
22 220,000.00
23 280,000.00
24 140,000.00
25 280,000.00
26 190,000.00
27 200,000.00
28 150,000.00
29 200,000.00
30 180,000.00
PPTO. SEM 31 185,666.67
 IMPORTE
1,815,000.00
3,080,000.00
1,815,000.00
3,685,000.00

55,000.00

F.ABS.ACUMULADF.RELATIVA ABS.
2 7%
3 10%
6 20%
9 30%
11 37%
12 40%
14 47%
18 60%
21 70%
22 73%
24 80%
25 83%
26 87%
27 90%
29 97%
30 100%
1.
1996 2005 2012
ABRIL 39,000.00 42,500.00 52,314.00
MAYO 41,600.00 46,700.00 56,949.60
JUNIO 43,800.00 49,300.00 60,070.80

POND. 30% 70% 100% OK

CORRECCION 42% 20%

2.
2005 2012
ABRIL 42,500.00 47,724.27
MAYO 46,700.00 52,440.55
JUNIO 49,300.00 55,360.15

Incremento en precios 3.40%

Incremento en demanda 8.60%

3.
2005 2012
Ventas Unidades Unidades Ventas
ABRIL 42,500.00 425.00 448.00 53,760.00
MAYO 46,700.00 467.00 493.00 59,160.00
JUNIO 49,300.00 493.00 520.00 62,400.00

Precio Neto 100.00 120.00

Incremento en demanda 5.60%
METODO DE MANO ALZADA
MES VENTAS
70,000.00
ENE 10,000.00
FEB 60,000.00 20,000.00
MAR 50,000.00 28,000.00
ABR 40,000.00 42,000.00
MAY 50,000.00 Column B
30,000.00 Linear (Colum
JUN 60,000.00
JUL 20,000.00
10,000.00
METODO DE LOS MINIMOS CUADRADOS
-
X ENE Y FEB MAR XY ABR X
MAY JUN JUL
1 10,000.00 10,000.00 1
2 20,000.00 40,000.00 4
3 28,000.00 84,000.00 9
4 42,000.00 168,000.00 16
5 50,000.00 250,000.00 25
6 60,000.00 360,000.00 36
21 210,000.00 912,000.00 91

n=6 Y na b X XY a X b X
2

210,000.00 6 21 b -21
912,000.00 21 91 b 6

(4,410,000.00) (126.00) (441.00)

5,472,000.00 126.00 546.00
1,062,000.00 - 105.00 b

b= 10,114.29
y= 70,800.00

PRESUPUESTO DE COBRANZAS
Enero Febrero Marzo Abril
Vtas. Netas 900,000 1,200,000 1,500,000 600,000
+IVA 134,482.76 179,310.34 224,137.93 89,655.17
Venta Bruta 1,034,482.76 1,379,310.34 1,724,137.93 689,655.17

DISTRIBUCION DE LAS CUOTAS

Contado 344,827.59 459,770.11 574,712.64 229,885.06
30 dias 344,827.59 459,770.11 574,712.64 229,885.06
60 dias 344,827.59 459,770.11 574,712.64 229,885.06
1,034,482.76 1,379,310.34 1,724,137.93 689,655.17
PRESUPUESTO DE COBRANZAS
Enero Febrero Marzo Abril
Saldo inicial 900,000.00 ###
Contado 344,827.59 459,770.11 574,712.64 229,885.06
30 dias 344,827.59 459,770.11 574,712.64
60 dias 344,827.59 459,770.11
Sub-Total 1,244,827.59 1,704,597.70 1,379,310.34 1,264,367.82
- Protestos (90,000.00) (124,482.76) (80,459.77) (103,448.28)
Cobranzas 1,154,827.59 1,580,114.94 1,298,850.57 1,160,919.54

Recuperacion de protestos
60,000.00 60,000.00 45,000.00 62,241.38
REVISION ANALISIS
Ventas Netas 4,200,000.00 3ra marzo 574,712.64
+IVA 627,586.21 2da abril 229,885.06
Venta bruta 4,827,586.21 3ra abril 229,885.06
Saldo inicial 1,800,000.00 Total por cobra 1,034,482.76
Total por cobrar 6,627,586.21 30.04
- Cobranzas (5,194,712.64)
- Protestos (398,390.80)
Total por cobrar 1,034,482.76
30.04
 Column B
Linear (Column B)

JUL

b X
2

Total
4,200,000
627,586.21
4,827,586.21

1,609,195.40
1,609,195.40
1,609,195.40
4,827,586.21
 Total
1,800,000.00
1,609,195.40
1,379,310.34
804,597.70
5,593,103.45
(398,390.80)
5,194,712.64
OPCION 1
ENERO FEBRERO MARZO
VTA. NETA 100,000,000.00 70,000,000.00 130,000,000.00
M.COM. (30,000,000.00) (21,000,000.00) (39,000,000.00)
C.D.V 70,000,000.00 49,000,000.00 91,000,000.00
MP (50%) 35,000,000.00 24,500,000.00 45,500,000.00
MO (30%) 21,000,000.00 14,700,000.00 27,300,000.00
GF (20%) 14,000,000.00 9,800,000.00 18,200,000.00

OPCION 2
ENERO FEBRERO MARZO
VTA. NETA 100,000,000.00 70,000,000.00 130,000,000.00
C.D.V. 70,000,000.00 49,000,000.00 91,000,000.00
MP (50%) 35,000,000.00 24,500,000.00 45,500,000.00
MO (30%) 21,000,000.00 14,700,000.00 27,300,000.00
GF (20%) 14,000,000.00 9,800,000.00 18,200,000.00

PRESUPUESTO DE COMPRAS EMPRESA COMERCIAL

ENERO FEBRERO MARZO
VTA. NETA 200,000.00 160,000.00 220,000.00
C.D.V. 120,000.00 96,000.00 132,000.00

INV. FINALES
STOCK SEG. 34,000.00 ### 34,000.00
+ 80% CDV MES SGTE. 76,800.00 105,600.00 192,000.00
IF 110,800.00 139,600.00 226,000.00

PRESUPUESTO DE COMPRAS
IF 110,800.00 139,600.00 226,000.00
+ C.D.V 120,000.00 96,000.00 132,000.00
- II (130,000.00) (110,800.00) (139,600.00)
COMPRAS NETAS 100,800.00 124,800.00 218,400.00

PRESUPUESTO DE COMPRAS EMPRESA INDUSTRIAL

ENERO FEBRERO MARZO
VENTAS NETAS (UNID) 400 500 600
VENTAS NETAS (BS) 80,000.00 100,000.00 120,000.00
COSTO DE VENTAS 64,000.00 80,000.00 96,000.00
MP 50% 32,000.00 40,000.00 48,000.00
MO 25% 16,000.00 20,000.00 24,000.00
GF 25% 16,000.00 20,000.00 24,000.00

IF PT (UNIDADES)
STOCK DE SEGURIDAD 30 ### 30
+ 100% DDA. MES SGTE. 500 600 300
IF PT (UNIDADES) 530 630 330

REQUERIMIENTO DE PT A PP (UNIDADES)
IF PT 530 630 330
+ CDV PT 400 500 600
- II PT (630) (530.00) (630.00)
TOTAL PT A PP 300.00 600.00 300.00

IF PP - ### -

REQUERIMIENTO DE PP A MP
IF PP - - -
+ REQ. PT A PP 300 600 300
- II PP - - -
TOTAL PP A MP 300 600 300

REQ. PP A MP 600 300 400

PRECIO UNITARIO 200.00 + IVA

COSTO (80%) 160.00
MP 50% 80.00 C.U. MP
MO 25% 40.00
GF 25% 40.00

REQUERIMIENTO DE MP (COMPRAS) (IMPORTES)

IF MP 21,600.00 28,800.00
+ REQ. PP A MP 48,000.00 24,000.00
- II MP (60,000.00) (21,600.00)
COMPRAS NETAS 9,600.00 31,200.00
ABRIL
180,000,000.00
(54,000,000.00)
126,000,000.00
63,000,000.00
37,800,000.00
25,200,000.00

ABRIL
180,000,000.00
126,000,000.00
63,000,000.00
37,800,000.00
25,200,000.00

ABRIL MAYO JUNIO

400,000.00 300,000.00 170,000.00
240,000.00 180,000.00 102,000.00

34,000.00 ### 34,000.00

144,000.00 81,600.00 -
178,000.00 115,600.00

178,000.00 115,600.00
240,000.00 180,000.00
(226,000.00) (178,000.00)
192,000.00 117,600.00

ABRIL MAYO
300 400
60,000.00 80,000.00
48,000.00 64,000.00
24,000.00 32,000.00
12,000.00 16,000.00
12,000.00 16,000.00

30 30
400 -
 430

430
300
(330.00)
400.00

-
400
-
400