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D2 100galones/MWH
3% de inversin
KGN=0.6
PPI 1i
PPI 2 i
+ 0.4
PPI 1 o
PPI 2 o
% anual PPI 1 3%
Precio actual de D2
K=
PD 2
P(WTI )
12.
13.
14.
15.
Solucin:
1. Em=400x24x30=288000 MW-h
Ea=400x24x365=3504000 MW-h
2. Consumo de GN.
6.95 MMBTU/MW-h
Poder calorifico=
(GN)
PGN=BP+T + D
1.85+1.00+0.80=
PD 2=3. 2 0+0.37=
ISC=
3.65 $ US
MMBTU
1.1 S/.
T .C=2.9
galn
3.57 $ US
galn
1.1 0.37 $ US
=
2.9
galn
GN=3.65 $US/MMBTU
D2=3.57 $US/galn
5. Cuadro de precios 2014-2034
PGNKGN(f)
Reajuste del GN:
PPI 11
PPI 21
GN =0.6
+0.4
PPI 10
PPI 20
KGN=0.6x1.03+0.4x1.04
KGN=1.034
PGN2015=PGN2014 x KGN
PGN=
3.65 $ US
3.77 $ US
x 1.034=
MMBTU
MMBTU
PGN (ao
KGN
PGN
anterior)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
3.65
3.77
3.90
4.04
4.17
4.31
4.46
4.61
4.77
4.93
5.10
5.27
5.45
5.64
5.83
6.03
6.23
6.44
6.66
6.89
1.034
1.034
1.034
1.034
1.034
1.034
1.034
1.034
1.034
1.034
1.034
1.034
1.034
1.034
1.034
1.034
1.034
1.034
1.034
1.034
($US/MMBTU)
3.65
3.77
3.90
4.04
4.17
4.31
4.46
4.61
4.77
4.93
5.10
5.27
5.45
5.64
5.83
6.03
6.23
6.44
6.66
6.89
7.12
6. D2 2014-2034
PD 2
=1.4 20052010
WTI
PD 2
=1.3 20112021
WTI
WTI 2014=
100 x 7+70 x 5 88 $ US
=
12
barril
D 2 2015=
PD 2015
WTI 2015
PD 2
=1.25 20222034
WTI
Datos:
WTI=2014-2024 130
WTI=2025-2035 150
AO
FACTOR DE
AJUSTE
WTI
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
1.30
1.30
1.30
1.30
1.30
1.30
1.30
1.30
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
88.00
130.00
130.00
130.00
130.00
130.00
130.00
130.00
130.00
130.00
130.00
150.00
150.00
150.00
150.00
150.00
150.00
150.00
150.00
150.00
150.00
7. CAPEX Y OPEX
S=Po(1+i)n
Costo de recuperacin capital
R 1=R ( 1+ i )
n1
R 2=R ( 1+ i )
n2
Rn1=R ( 1+i )
Rn=R
$=R=Po
n ( 1+ i )
CAPEX
( 1+i )n1
INV(Po)=800MM $US
R=800
0.12 x 1.12
=0.133
20
1.12 1
Capex = 800 x 0.133 = 107 MMUS$
PotenciaCAPEX
Energia OPEX
Pot + Ener $ US
Elecricidad :
=Preciounitario energia
Energia total
E=100x24=2400 MWH
10% sobrecarga
Potencia
$ US
Panual Pmensual x 12
MW
MMUS $
Mes
500 MW
8.9
Pmax =
PPmes = 17.8
US $
kW
Costo GN = MMUS$/Ao
Consumo D2
Cec = 100 gal/MWh
= 400 x 240 = 96 000 MWh x 100 gal/MWh
= 9.6 MMgalones/Ao
Precio D2 = 3,57 US$/galon
Costo Anual = 34.27 MMUS$/ao
Potencia Anual = 107 MMUS$/ao
Energa Anual = 32 + 34.27 + 86.5 = 152.77 MMUS$/ao
107
Precio Unitario de la Energa=
MMUS $
MMUS $
+152 .77
Ao
Ao
MMMWh
3.504
Ao